Week 9 Musings

Sorry for the delay, but it's obvious that I didn't doctor these, as badly as they turned out.

At this point, if anyone is actually following this weekly bag of shit, they need to have their heads examined. Over the past several years I'd have recommended it, but at this point, this year, I have proven only that I have no idea what the hell it is I'm doing when I'm picking out these games. 7-9 last week brings the total for the year to 43-54-1. On one of the games, I didn't even realize that Auburn was playing their game at LSU instead of at home. How inept is that? The only thing I've shown this year has been a knack for picking teams that throw pick 6's, get punts blocked and give up kick returns for scores. Last week, 3 games lost due mostly to defensive and special teams scores. Oh, by the way, I rarely bet much on NFL games, but my top favorites last week were Minnesota and Miami. Go ahead and research the box scores on those two and see what you come up with.

North Carolina just beat Virginia Tech outright. How about that? Shows what I know. I was smart enough to play them last week when they puked up a 17 point lead at home to Florida St and looked putrid in the process. Of course...they'll waltz in to Blacksburg and play with poise and actually win the turnover battle. By the way, nice uniforms VT. You deserve to lose when you dress like that in public.

Saw that the college basketball rankings came out today. Butler is ranked 10th. I live in Indy, follow college hoops somewhat closely and I couldn't tell you two guys on that team. I actually went through the top 25, and there were something like 8 teams who I couldn't name two guys on the team. and couldn't tell you who the coach was. Example: Texas is ranked 3rd. I've heard of one guy on that team, Damion James. Cal is ranked 12th? Washington 13th? Butler is 10th!! I live in Indy, and I couldn't pick any of their players out of a lineup. Dayton is ranked? Let's just say that I am not anticipating college hoops with the same amount of vigor I used to. I am no Dookie V. At least Illinois should be ok this year.

0-1 to start the week thanks to Va Tech's unfortunate performance, or UNC's great performance or whatever. It was the exact opposite of what i told you would happen. Let's learn more about opposites!!

2. Indiana +17 @Iowa: I swore off these jackasses after they grabbed their collective ankles in Charlottesville( by the way, a big f-u goes out to the University of Vagina for their performance last week v GT in about the 400th driving rainstorm of the CFB season), but this is a vintage Pete LaVette play here. In previous years, games like this have cashed like clockwork. Iowa hasn't been able to blow anyone out this year, it just is not their M.O. However, time is running out on those who fear the Hawkeyes running the table. They're unlikely to stumble this week, but as I mentioned, they've shown no penchant for blowing anyone out, unless it's Iowa St, it's against a musing and Iowa St hands them 4 turnovers within their own 25. Indiana has some actionable items on offense and has been able to harrass opposing Qb's, so Iowa likely won't be too comfortable in this one. They are also very banged up and coming off two emotional road victories. They can expect their dork fans to provide some support this week and maybe they'll all carry teddy bears a la St Louis baseball fans to help nurse their beloved Hawks back to health, but save some bonehead plays or a gaggle of turnovers, this one will probably be a competitive game. IU will have to overcome the defensive scores that Iowa gets though.

3. Nc State +10 @Florida St: The Wolfpack has looked downright adrift the past couple of weeks, having been buried by Duke and BC of all people the past two games. They're heavily dogged here because they now face FSU, who has shown themselves to be comptetent in the passing game, but also has shown some dysfunctional characteristics. The Noles also sport and even weaker pass D than the Wolfpack, and although Russell Wilson is no longer immortal, he still is quite capable. Coming off a bye, I think this is the week Tom O'Brien coaxes a good performance out of his boys, as the Pack is certainly due, and better than they've shown. They are capable of winning this if they can get their heads out of their asses and convert some opportunities. They'll have to overcome the blocked field goal for a TD that FSU will get however.

4. Cincinnati -15 @Syracuse: Statistically, this is a mismatch in a lot of ways, but most alarmingly for Syracuse, in the Cincy pass O v Cuse pass d category. Cincy is ranked #1 in pass efficiency, Syracuse is ranked 112th in pass efficiency D. Also, Orange QB Greg Paulus has been turnover prone, and Syracuse won't be able to run on them, so Paulus will be left to his own devices against the top sack unit in the country. Not a good matchup for Syracuse, but that kickoff return for a score that they'll get certainly will help out.

5. Ole Miss -4 @Auburn: I've been skeptical of Jevan Snead all year, and as an extension, this Ole Miss team, but it looks like they are rounding into shape. The timing is similar to last year...this is about the time of year that they really started to hit their stride. Auburn has a couple of problems staring at them in this game. First, they have no passing game. Chris Todd just isnt working out for Gus Malzahn and the Tiger offense., It's become pretty much the Ben Tate show for Auburn due to Todd's deficiencies and second RB Ontaio McCalebb's nagging injuries, and Ole Miss is ranked 3rd in the nation in run defense. Auburn has also shown continued erosion on defense, mostly due to their lack of depth. They reportedly have had tryouts for walkons for their secondary, and their linebacking crew is dangerously thin. I think Ole Miss keeps the momentum going, but that twice tipped INT return for a score that Auburn gets early will make it tougher to cover a number on the road.

6. Temple +7 @Navy: Talk about a couple of scrappy teams. temple has been able to find ways to win pretty much all year, their victory at Toledo in which they put up 40 without much of an offensive attack being the latest example. The big reason for this side is that QB Ricky Dobbs won't be playing for Navy per media reports, and navy is historically a poor home favorite. Backup Kriss Proctor stepped in admirably for the Middies last week at home against Wake, but he is much less able to throw it than Dobbs is(zero pass attempts in the game would illustrate that). Plus, he spells his name like a queer. The combination of Temple getting Navy's backup combined with their bad home favorite history leads me to Temple here, as they can run the ball effectively and they've found ways to win this year. Also, don't forget that Temple had Navy beat last year until Navy recovered a fumble while Temple was trying to run out the clock that sent the game to overtime. Kaipo played in that game too, so it wasn;t like they were winning because resident oaf Jarrod Bryant was running the show that day. I'll stop with the turnover predictions now.

7. Michigan -7 @Illinois: Michigan looked terrible last week, but don't expect the Illinois coaches to notice anything from the game film to exploit what Penn St did. Michigan is going to have great success running the football, perhaps as good an amount of success as they've had in any game this year save the Delaware st debacle. Illinois is ranked 106th against the run, and the Wolves have had success running it. Hell, they'll throw it too! Michigan has struggled on defense, but Illinois has floundered against worse. Illinois hasn't beaten Michigan in Champaign since 1983. Also, I'll be rooting hard for the Illini this week due to my hatred for Michigan, so their chances just got a lot worse. If the Illini are total jagoffs, they'll do what they did last week. Lose by as much as possible without letting me win my bet.

8. Nebraska -13 @Baylor: Baylor has really fallen on hard times due to some crippling injuries. Hopefully, the Bear faithful don't start getting impatient with Art Briles, because he's a good coach. They've really struggled lately though because QB Robert Griffin is out for the year, and the team revolves around him. Nebraska comes in to Waco as a 13 point favorite this week. They are coming off an 8 turnover game against Iowa St last week, and their offense is currently a mess. Throughout it all, however, their defense has been outstanding, and I see no real chance for Baylor to move the ball on them. The value is out of whack here a bit, since Okie St was only an 8 point favorite in Waco last week, but I still think Nebraska will cover.....

9. Florida -14 1/2(buy it to 14 if possible) v Georgia: It's true that Florida has been very unimpressive on offense this year, but I think this might be the week that we see a points explosion. Georgia's defense has been extremely poorly coached all year, and I can see a scenario where Florida really piles it on. They stop the run cold, so Georgia's pedestrian passing game certainly won't be successful against them. This will only lead to more pressure on Joe Cox, which is never a good thing. Despite their offensive troubles, this offense is still ranked 5th in the country in yards per play, while the Dawg D has turned in some brutal performances...I'd say it's the weakest outfit Florida has seen in awhile. Public perception is that this is too many points for how Florida has played, and I'd agree, but I think Georgia will get Florida's best shot this week, and it won't be pretty. Doors blown off, taken out to the woodshed, bludgeoned, pick your desciptive term.

10. @Idaho -3 v Louisiana Tech: Despite the fact that the Vandals gave up 70 points last week to the devastating Nevada rushing attack, I'm going to back them again this week. Louisiana Tech is making their second consecutive road trip across the country this week, having lost a heartbreaker at Utah State last week. Now they have to hitch up the wagons again and go all the way to Idaho to play a very good offense. They should have some success against the Vandals defense, but they are not explosive, and their own defense has left some things to be desired, since they are ranked 85th in the country in yards per play against. We just need the Vandals to gut out a victory, and they've been pretty good about that this year.

11. USC -3 @Oregon: Despite their dominant play as of late, I am still not sold on Oregon....at least not on their offense. Regardless if Jeremiah Masoli plays or not, they can't throw the ball with any kind of regularity, and to beat USC, you need to be diverse on offense. The chances of them running the ball down USC's throat are pretty slim. Lately, the chinks in USC's armor have centered around their pass dfense, as both Notre Dame and Oregon St have thrown on them the past two weeks, but Oregon can't do what those two teams did. Also, USC is clicking on offense, so Oregon is going to have to have a day on defense like they did against Cal. possible, I suppose, but not likely. I also don't think that Chip kelly is ready to pull off this kind of victory in his first year. USC reaffirms their conference dominance in this one. They better, because if they don't, they are not only out of the MNC chase, but they're completely out of the Rose Bowl and probably the BCS as well.


Others: We're running the risk of having another Indiana type performance from the Cavaliers here, but I like the way Duke has been playing lately, and I like the chances that David Cutcliffe can figure out some ways to exploit the Wahoo defense. Also, just like I said several weeks ago, it's tough for such a limited offensive team to cover more than a score against a team that can throw it around a bit. Thaddeus Lewis has been good this year, and you can make a case that Duke has played better than UVA over the course of the year. .....Leaning toward Colorado as a 4 point home dog to Missouri, since Mizzou is out of momentum and QB Gabbert is heavily affected by the ankle injury he suffered awhile ago. CU has played pretty well at home....In the MAC, which I've mostly avoided this year, Kent is a short home favorite over Western Michigan(2 1/2). Kent has actually played very well lately after some terrible performances while they were sorting out their QB situation, which they have now done, settling on freshmsn Spencer Keith, who has played well. Their defense has been effective all year, and Western has been inconsistent. kent should handle that one......UAB has the #2 rushing offense in the country as far as yards per carry, and their facing the 111th ranked run defense in UTEP while getting 7 points. That alone makes them enticing, but C-USA East teams have had a hard time making that trip to El Paso, and the words "UAB" "sound defense" have never been found in the same area code with each other, let alone the same sentence. That mismatch is enough for me though. I'm down......Central Michigan is better in every statistical category than Boston College. If they can catch a break and get some decent weather tomorrow, they've got a great shot at an outright win. I'll be taking the 6 with them as well......They haven't lined the game yet for some reason, but Hawaii is traveling to reno to take on the Nevada run game. that will be a bloodbath for sure. Nevada continues to prove that they have the weaker sisters of the WAC for lunch, while they themselves take their rightful place at the dinner table for the BCS bigfoots and Boise. They should destroy Hawaii, whose previously solid passing game has been wrecked by injury. The matchup between the Nevada run offense and Hawaii run D is among the most one sided that you'll find all year. If you see a spread under about 27, go ahead and take the Wolf Pack.(2 words, unlike NC State).....Quickly, Utah St has a chance to catch Fresno St uninterested, so I'll take the 17 there, Air Force should continue Colorado St's death spiral(laying 6), and I like Michigan St to cover at Minnesota(-3 1/2), although the qb change for Minnesota, assuming it happens xould make things interesting, as MSU might still be shellshocked from last week. Statistically, this is a mismatch, though. If for some reason Adam Weber plays, (I can't imagine they would do that with no eric Decker) it becomes a stronger play on MSU for me.

That's it. Go ahead and fade away on these, and make yourselves some cash.