Week 13 Musings

Ok, so our attempted march back to mediocrity picked up some steam last week with a mark of 8-4. It apears as though it's a case of too little too late, since we are shockingly only 2 weeks away from the end of the regular season. Season total is now 67-74. I'll pretty much have to spontaneously ignite over the last 2 weeks to have a shot at .500 for the year, but what the hell, we'll give it a whirl. Don't have time to correct the typos, so I apologize in advance.

Although the season has seemed somewhat lacking in terms of excitement and compelling games this year, last week was a good one. I'd venture to say that the Oregon/Arizona game was one of the best I've watched in awhile, almost certainly the best one this year. Although I've never really been much of an Oregon Duck fan(uniforms, obviously) I found myself rooting for them last week. Going into their game with Arizona, both the Wildcats and the Ducks controlled their own destiny. If either won out, they would represent the Pac-10 in the Rose Bowl against Ohio St. Oregon St was in the mix, but needed a loss from Arizona to be able to control their destiny. An Oregon win meant the bid comes down to next Thursday's Civil War game between Oregon and Oregon St in Eugene. An Arizona win all but sewed up a Rose Bowl birth for Arizona...their first ever. I have to admit, I'm glad they lost. Now we get to see a Civil War on national TV for all the marbles, and frankly. Arizona already lost convincingly to Iowa, so seeeing them in the Rose Bowl against Ohio St wouldn't conjure up any excitement for me. Best case scenario happened there.

Also, In the SEC, Ole Miss survived a late comeback from LSU to win by 2. I could whine about that being a tough luck loss for the musings, since LSU got embarassingly outgained in the game and needed a lucky coverage breakdown from Ole Miss to come under the number, but that wasn't the real story in this game..The biggest, and most wonderful story was that Les Miles provided us with some hijinks and overall spastic behavior, both during and after the game. It's too long of a story to recount, but let's just say his end of game management was subpar. All of a sudden there is a statewide call to arms in Louisiana among all LSU fans, and Les Miles is in the crosshairs. What's this?? People are claiming that Less Miles is somewhat lacking in his coaching acumen? They've figured that out, have they? I can't imagine. It appears that my dream of seeing ol Less running the Michigan program into the ground is becoming less and less likely with each passing game. Too bad he sucks so bad. To add insult to injury, not only did he completely blow that game for his team, but he threw his young quaterback under the bus in the process. On the bright side, though, he gave us several new examples of his copyrighted mush-mouthed, logic deficient, incoherent babble in the process. For more on this whole episode, see http://collegefootballmadcapper.blogspot.com/

One other thing....can we conjure up some kind regards for Pat Fitzgerald at Northwestern? He's sewn up his second consecutive 8 win season, despite the fact that he had to replace all but 3 starters on his offensive team, and that he is doing it at Northwestern. God only knows where he is geting these kids from to come there, but they play smart, which is not surprising given the size of their brains. Compare Northwestern's roster with Illinois. Now switch the coaches. Fitzgerald would almost certainly have not missed out on two bowls in a row. How many wins do you think Zook would have with this Northwestern group? I'd peg it at somewhere between negative one and 1. Rhymes with Beer-o. On to this week......there's one on Thanksgiving night, but I'm laying off because nobody can accurately predict whether A&M will play like a legitimate team or a Brownie pack. The line sits at 21. If it dips under 21, I might throw a couple bucks on Texas, but I'll probably sit it out. Lots of games Friday. Don't forget.

1, @Colorado +11 v Nebraska: I'd buy it to 11 if necessary. This game always seems to favor the dog, and I think this year will be no exception. Buffs coach Dan Hawkins is probably on his way out, so his kids would like nothing better than to knock off Nebraska in this game. Cu fans are somewhat indifferent to the program right now, but they'll get lathered up for Nebraska. Despite their terrible stats, Colorado has looked better in person than they have on paper this year. They hung well with Texas for a good portion of that game, and they had Okie St beat on the road last week as well. They've beaten teams like Kansas and A&M at home. Nebraska has had a good year, but they are prone to terrible stretches on offense and they've already sewn up the Big 12 North, so this could be a ho hum game for them. They aren't good enough to get by with a B or C game performance. I think Colorado has a great shot at catching them in this one and possibly pulling off the win.

2. Alabama -10 @Auburn: I originally took a look at this line and decided I wanted no part of it. That was when it opened at 12. Since the line dropped I took a closer look at this one and feel that Bama is a solid play, and in my opinion, only because the game is at Auburn, which makes the line manageable. Auburn built their reputation this year at the beginning of the year, when Gus Malzahn's offense was churning out yards and they were burying people with asolid rushing attack, led by a thunder and lightning type combo in Ben Tate and Ontario McCalebb. McCalebb is now banged up, so it's the Ben Tate show going forward. Their passing game has never been good, mostly because Chris Todd is very limited and makes bad decisions. He was sheltered by the running game and the early schedule, as they either played bad opponents, or good ones in tough situations(WV getting their QB hurt and giving them 5 turnovers). The truth is that Alabama will not allow them to run. It simply won't happen, because nobody runs on Alabama, and Ben tate ran his mouth off this week, saying he's better than Mark Ingram. If Chris Todd tries to throw the ball downfield with any regularity, the pick 6 over/under will be set at 1.5. On the flipside, Auburn's defense has been getting gashed, as their depth has been depleted completely. they've never been good against the run, but now they are really struggling to stop anyone. Even Mississippi St and georgia were running all over them in recent weeks, and Kentucky did it at Auburn back when they were healthy. bama will run all over these guys. I'd venture to say that this is the best matchuo for Bama's offense all year. The betting public is looking at Auburn's results from earlier this year and their results over the past 7 years against Bama and is liking the points. I think it's a mistake. Bama rolls 34-13.

3. @West Virginia pk v Pittsburgh: Pitt is an interesting team. It's very true that they have been pretty much flawless all year, and truly they have been one of the most balanced teams in the country. Look at the stats: They're ranked highly in just about every category. Offensively, they run the ball well, and Bill Stull has had a great season completely out of nowhere. They're ranked in the top 20 nationally in almost every offensive category. In addition to that, their defense has been stout. Against the run, they've been very good, against the pass, not so much, but not bad. Most shockingly, they have not yet been hurt by Wanny's clockwork ability to coach them into a loss. This is the basis for my feeling here. How awesome would it be for Pitt to win this game against their top rival to set up a battle royale next week against Cincinatti in which Pitt has a 10-1 record? That would be cool, indded, but I read a quote by Wanny that would make my blood run cold if I was a Pitt fan. It went something like this: "This is a big rivalry game for us, but whether we win 40-0 or they win 40-0 we're still playing for all the marbles next week against Cincinnati." Vintage Wanny. Keep in mind that WV would like nothing better than to put a damper on Pitt's season, and remember that this team is pretty damn good itself and is coming off a bye to get Noel Devine healthy. Pitt has struggled some against the pass, WV has been pretty stout themselves on defense, and the motivational edge will certainly be with the home team. I foresee some flaming couches and delighted hillbillies come late friday night.

4. @Oklahoma -8 v Oklahoma St: I realize that Oklahoma is completely banged up and is looking at a 6-5 record, but I still see very little chance that Okie St comes into Norman and competes. Oklahoma is coming off an embarrassing loss to Texas Tech on the road last week , and will be plenty motivated to take it to Oklahoma St to keep them from an at large bid in the BCS, which they will certainly wrap up if they win this game. In order for Oklahoma St to be able to hang with any Oklahoma team in Norman, they need to be at full strength, and they clearly are not. They had the tough break loss of Dez Bryant due to his stupidity, they lost starting tailback Kendall Hunter, and now Zac Robinson is banged up and questionable for this game, though one would assume he'll play. Oklahoma will be 6-6 if they don't take care of business here...they still have great weapons on offense and a good defense, despite what happened last week. I think we see an outfit similar to the one that shat on Texas A&M two weeks ago rather than the one who flailed around aimlessly in Lubbock.

5. @Duke +5 v Wake Forest: I am totally missing why a 4-7 Wake team is a 5 point favorite on the road in this one. I like the Deacons as much as the next guy and I've always been a fan of Riley Skinner, but they are still a terrible favorite. Duke is solid, people. They struggle against elite defenses, but Wake has proven to be anything but that, having just surrendered an avalanche of points and yards to a Florida St team starting a true freshman in his first ever college game at home. Thad Lewis will be able to do what he likes to do, and Duke's defense is not chopped liver. i would have made Duke about a FG favorite in this one. It'll probably be close, but there's all kinds of value in Duke +5, or 4 1/2 or whatever you end up getting better than a FG.

6. Missouri -3 v Kansas @KC: Missouri has quietly been having a nice little run over the past few weeks, while Kansas loudly been crashing and burning. The whole Mark Mangino is a psychpathic fat tub of cruel and inappropriate lard thing has obviously affected the team negatively. Missouri is racking up yards and has a couple very nice defensive efforts sprinkled in there as well. They handled both Colorado and Kansas St easilt on the road in recent weeks, and if you throw out their fluke loss at home to Baylor, they'd be 8-3 and looking at a very lucrative bowl. At this point, Kansas's offense is a shell of it's former self. I just can't see the Jayhawks rising up in this spot and knocking off Missouri with the positive momentum Missori has. I would have expected this spread to be closer to a TD, if not more. Stranger things have happened, but both of these teams will have to do an absolute 180 degree about face for KU to win this.

7. Arkansas +4 @LSU: You might want to wait on this one too, since I think people will be looking at this one and pounding LSU. Although Miles and company have pulled several Houdini acts over the years, and stay i games they shouldn't, etc, I like the Hogs here. There is all kinds of gnashing of teeth going on on the Bayou due to Miles's puking all over himself in their game last week, and people are starting to see what some others have seen for about 5 years. The guy can't coach, and when he's not surrounded by smart assistants, he gets exposed. This week he's going to match wits with Bobby Petrino, so he's going to be at a disadvantage there. LSU has been outgained by their opponents for the year, and Arkansas has outgained theirs by an average of 50 per game, despite having roadies with Florida, Bama and Ole Miss on their schedule. LSU previously lost their top player, RB Charles Scott for the year to injury, and now their 2nd RB Kieland Williams is also gone for the year. They'll have thir 3rd stringer in there, so it's likely Jordan Jefferson will have to carry the mail. Not a good scenario for LSU. If their defense does not play extremely well, they're going to lose. This has the potential to be a real shitstorm for Miles, as the natives are getting restless. He better not fall behind early.

8. Tennessee -2 1/2(buy it if you have to) @Kentucky: I was very glad to see Kentucky knock off Georgia last week, since it was a musing, but these are the games that the Wildcats just have not been able to win. Well, any game against Tennessee would fall into that category, since they haven't beaten UT since 1984, but they've had other games in which they could follow up a nice win with another one, and they've failed almost every time. While they beat georgia, they were woefully outgained in the game, and now they play a better team in UT who needs this win to get a Jan 1 bowl game. UK gained only 250 yards on Georgia...a far cry from the D they'll be facing this week. also, UT's offense has been improving all year. Coming off the win at Georgia, I just think this is a bad matchup for the 'Cats. UT keeps the whammy on UK for another year.

9. @Georgia Tech -7 v Georgia: A Willie Martinez coiached Georgia defense has absolutely no shot at stopping Tech as they hit on all cylinders, and they appear to be doing just that based on their past few games. There's always a lot of danger in backing Tech as a favorite against an SEC team(see their bowl game last year), but this is a good matchup for them. Paul Johnson has commented several times that this is the biggest game on their schedule, so there will be no look ahead to the ACC title game. Offensively, without AJ Green, Georgia doesn't have the type of offense to take advantage of Tech's weaknesss, and actually, they're ability to pressure the passer might actually be a bad matchup for Georgia. Maybe Georgia can fire themselves up with purple helmets and pink shoelaces or something.

10. Navy -9 1/2 @Hawaii: Most of the time, when you see a team making a late season trek to the island, you worry about the whole situation for the road team, travel, a vacation atmosphere, etc. I don't think there's much to worry about with Navy in that regard, and there's such a Naval presence in Hawaii that you could even make a case that they might have a bit of a cheering section there. Hawaii is simply not a good football team, especially when their starting QB is hurt. They only eked out an OT win over a putrid San Jose St team last week, scoring only 10 points in regulation with the backup. Started Bryant Moniz is going to play, but he is one hard tackle to his ribs away from being out. Ricky Dobbs is going to run wild on this team. If Hawaii can't put up at least 24 points, they dont have a shot. Don't forget that Coach Ken Niatomolualololoatulo is from Hawaii too, so his team will be fired up for him.

Others: Memphis has given up, so Tulsa should have no problem taking it to them at home (-17)....Not a big fan of the coaching matchup, but I think the Illini might have a shot at keeping this one close with Cincy, getting so many points(20 1/2). Cincy has a look ahead here, and Illinois has the potential to rise up now and again.....Now that Darel Scott is back at RB for Maryland, their offense becomes somewhat legit. BC has ben a disaster on the road, so I don't think they should be laying almost a TD, even though Maryland is no prize to bet on.....Also leaning toward NC State as usual. UNC stinks on offense, and they can't possibly get 6 more TOs on the road again can they???NC St is getting 5 1/2.....That's about it. I might have some additional thoughts later, but I think this will be the card. Happy Thanksgiving.