New Years Days Musings

5 games on New Year's Day...here's what I'm looking at. By the way, thank God ESPN is keeping us abreast of what pro prospects are in each bowl game...(Todd McShay's rankings), so that we all can justify watching these games. There must be some sort of effect on the NFL, or there wouldn't be a point to all this nonsense, would there?

Auburn -8 v Northwestern: I was looking far and wide to find reasons to bet on Northwestern here, and I found a couple, like the Cats are good on third down, they've got a scrappy Qb who has had some success throwing it, etc, However, the big reasons, i.e., who will have the edge when these two teams are scrimmaging...it appears to be all Auburn here. Offensively, Auburn has been pretty balanced. Theiy're effective in the run game, they've passed pretty well when they have to, and they haven't been overmatched against anyone, especially in their last game with Bama. The Cats are very well coached, but have clearly overachieved this year. They are ranked almost dead last in college football running the ball, and the things they do well(relatively well anyway) are the things Auburn can stop. Auburn struggles against the run, but as I mentioned NU can't run to save their lives. Defensively, the Cats have been ok, but they definitely give up yards. I also think that Auburn is going to be motivated because they missed a bowl last year, and are on the rise in their opinions, so they'll be looking for reasons to be happy about the prospect of next year. I think the only way the Cats can sneak off in this one is if Auburn is totally disinterested. I don't think that'll happen. The Tigers have a significant edge in every phase here. I really hope I'm wrong, because I'll be rooting hard for the Cats, but I see a tough day for them.

Penn St +1 v LSU: I would normally have great hesitation backing a Bug ten team who hasn't really accomplished much against an athletic SEC team, especially in the favorite's role, but luckily for me, Les Miles is still on the headset. Penn st has mussled through the season pretty much uneventfully, but they've been effective in a lot of ways against the teams they are supposed to beat. They're balanced on offense, and they're well coached. I don't know if it's Joe Pa who's responsible for that or if it's the orange headed assistant or the collection of 55 year assistants that they have, but they are always well coached. It's especially evident when they play against poorly coached teams, and as a fan of the team that employs Ron Zook, I can attest painfully. There is no doubt that they will enjoy a schematic advantage in this one. They'll also enjoy a physical advantage when they're on defense, as LSU is going to have a rogh time getting anything going on offense. As I've mentioned adnauseum, LSU has been outgained for the year, and that's mostly due to a poor offense. LSU will not run on Penn St, and get a load of this: penn st is ranked 6th in the country in sacks, while LSU is 102nd in sacks allowed. This is going to resemble Jacory Harris's night the other night when Wisconsin tossed him around the yard in the Champs Sports Bowl. LSU will probably hold their own when they're on defense, but penn St has a much better chance of doing damage than vice versa. penn St has to be careful in the punt game, however. LSU is tops in the country at returning punts, and Penn St has had all kinds of trouble covering them. Just boot it out of bounds and sack their asses back to where they would have been.

West Virginia -2 1/2 v Florida St: Florida St can't stop a soul on defense. That's pretty much the lesson here. West Virginia's offense is not the end all be all, but they are certainly good enough to hang plenty of crooked numbers on the Noles. Conversely, Florida St is pretty good on offense, but Wv has a scrappy defense and doesn't get embarrassed by anyone. Also keep in mind that the Seminoles aren't quite the same without Christian Ponder back there. It's Bobby Bowden's last game. Good fucking riddance to that senile, condescending, hypocritical, needy old bastard. He stole a National Championship in '93. Get out.

Ohio St +4 v Oregon: Jim Tressel has a good track record when he's a dog and everyone is counting his team out. In non-National Title games, that is. Last year's game against Texas is a good example. Anyway, Oregon has certainly been good, but they are not leaps and bounds better than everyone else in the pac Ten, namely Arizona and Oregon st, both of whom played them to a standstill, and both of whom got their asses kicked in their bowl games against teams not as good as Ohio St. Oregon also has had trouble against physical teams, namely Stanford and Boise, and Ohio St will be the most physical team they have faced yet. If Ohio St can get their run game rolling, it's going to be a long day for the Ducks. Ohio St has also been quite opportunistic on defense, and if they can contain the Duck run game, we've seen what happens when Masoli is forced to throw. I just think there's some good value with the Buckeyes. They'll certainly be jacked up in their first visit to Pasadena in a long time.

Cincinnati +12 1/2 v Florida: I heard Kirk Herbstriet mention that since Urban Meyer has had this whole rigamarole with the resigning and the leave of absence and the subsequent man-love fest at their practices, Cincy shouldn't even bother to show up for this game. I'd like to suggest that this Cincy team is not your average small conference upstart. They are fucking undefeated. They are going to be extremely motivated. I understand that they lost their coach, and Brian Kelly is worth a lot, but the spread reflects that. This offense is the best in the country. I do not think that Florida has faced one in it's class. It's true that Cincy will be taxed to stop Florida, but you can actually find some areas where Cincy might be able to match up with them. (Cincy 6th in sacks, and Tebow's ben sacked plenty). It's not like Florida has been racking up 50 points against everyone on their schedule. The Charleston Southerns and FIUs, yes. The Mississippi States, the South Carolinas...no. Cincy is going to score on these guys...they won't be held to 17 or anything like that in my opinion. This is a prolific passing attack that will be very motivated. Maybe I'll be proven to be a moron here, but i don't see these teams as being that far apart, and if Brian Kelly was still somehow patroling the sideline for Cincy, I'd be calling for the outright.

*edited Penn St line. Moved to PSU +1 on 1/1.