Last game of the year. Tough call in my opinion, because I think the spread is where it should be, but I certainly can't sit it out.
Texas +4 1/2 v Alabama: Line moved to 4 1/2 this afternoon. Not sure how long it will stay there, but I grabbed it. Basically, you have two teams that play very good defense(in Texas's case, most of the time). Offensively, you would generally give texas the edge as the more explosive team, but not this year, because Texas has struggled mightily against the two legitimately good defenses they played this year, Nebraska and Oklahoma. I hear a lot about people lending some credence to this being an SEC/Big 12 comparison, and you can't compare SEC speed to B12 speed and all that crap. Do people really think that Texas is at a speed/talent disadvantage against anyone? Texas? The answer to that question is no. I think motivation has to be considered here. People say that no Nick Saban team ever has motivation problems, and that might be true, but I would point to last year's Sugar Bowl as an example. Now obviously, the chances of Bama notbeing jacked for a MNC game are remote, but you can make a case that Texas will be blazing hot coming in as the underdog. Everyone has been telling bama how great they are, they named yesterday Mark Ingram day in Alabama, he won the Heisman, etc. even though Texas has struggled at times this year, that defense is very good, and it will be hard for Bama to impose their will with the running game, since Texas led the country in rushing defense by a mile. Texas is also adept at making a bigger impact on the scoreboard than they do on the stat sheet, and sometimes bama is the anthithesis of that. I just have a hunch that Texas will come in and play very well from the git go and make this a close game with legit shot at the win. I'll take the points here.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
1/5-1/6 Musings
Again, sorry for the tardiness and posting after the fact.
nice work by Boise, but they were the better team all night. This one was a head scratcher. Not so much that Boise lost, but by how opposite TCU was compared to their whole season. Only 11 carries by TCU running backs? Didn't seem to make sense. Giid for Boise...they deserved to win. Add this to the pile of significant dogs that have covered. Gotta stop with the favorites at a TD or better.
Iowa +5 1/2 v Georgia Tech: Based on what I've been able to decipher, this game is pretty even. Ga Tech obviously has a good rushing offense, and a very solid offense overall, but iowa is good at stopping the things they like to do. iowa is smart and disciplined, and contrary to populat belief, they have a couple of very good athletes on that side of the ball. I think the key player for iowa is going to be S Tyler Sash, and he's a playmaker, having scored 3 tds on defense this year including the huge one against Indiana that led to the bloodletting cover failure. He's a good player, so the more he means, the better for Iowa. Offensively, Iowa hasn't been great, but they have balance and go up against a low pressure defense in Georgia tech. inmy opinion, the dog would be the play here regardless of who's favored, and especially at a somewhat significant number.
Troy +3 1/2 v Central Michigan: This matchup kind of reminds me of a B10 v SEC game. CMU has had a great season, but they lose their coach and have to drive all the way down to Mobile, right in Troy's backyard. Although CMU looks good on paper and has a great Qb in our guy LeFevour, the odds appear to be stacked against them. Troy's QB has been on fire lately, averaging 300+ pass yards per game, and they have all kinds of veterans who have been in bowl games before. This is more of a gut play, and a continued fade of the MAC, who is winless for the third season in a row. Like the speed matchup for Troy here.
I'll hopefully have some MNC thoughts for you before Thursday. Adios.
nice work by Boise, but they were the better team all night. This one was a head scratcher. Not so much that Boise lost, but by how opposite TCU was compared to their whole season. Only 11 carries by TCU running backs? Didn't seem to make sense. Giid for Boise...they deserved to win. Add this to the pile of significant dogs that have covered. Gotta stop with the favorites at a TD or better.
Iowa +5 1/2 v Georgia Tech: Based on what I've been able to decipher, this game is pretty even. Ga Tech obviously has a good rushing offense, and a very solid offense overall, but iowa is good at stopping the things they like to do. iowa is smart and disciplined, and contrary to populat belief, they have a couple of very good athletes on that side of the ball. I think the key player for iowa is going to be S Tyler Sash, and he's a playmaker, having scored 3 tds on defense this year including the huge one against Indiana that led to the bloodletting cover failure. He's a good player, so the more he means, the better for Iowa. Offensively, Iowa hasn't been great, but they have balance and go up against a low pressure defense in Georgia tech. inmy opinion, the dog would be the play here regardless of who's favored, and especially at a somewhat significant number.
Troy +3 1/2 v Central Michigan: This matchup kind of reminds me of a B10 v SEC game. CMU has had a great season, but they lose their coach and have to drive all the way down to Mobile, right in Troy's backyard. Although CMU looks good on paper and has a great Qb in our guy LeFevour, the odds appear to be stacked against them. Troy's QB has been on fire lately, averaging 300+ pass yards per game, and they have all kinds of veterans who have been in bowl games before. This is more of a gut play, and a continued fade of the MAC, who is winless for the third season in a row. Like the speed matchup for Troy here.
I'll hopefully have some MNC thoughts for you before Thursday. Adios.
Monday, January 4, 2010
Fiesta Bowl
Michigan St gave us a solid bone job on Saturday night, so it was a losing proposition on that day. Overll, the bowl season has been pretty good...the listed musings are 13-8. Not bad, certainly better than the season.
I have to admit that I am very much looking forward to this game tonight, even though I was very disappointed in the matchup when it was announced. there are tons of angles to consider here, and I spent as much time on this game as I have any game I can remember, so I apologize for the length.....
TCU -7 v Boise St: If you want to pay around (-130) you can buy it down to 6.5, which I did to secure a middle. Early on in the Bowl Season, this spread soared to TCU-9. When i saw that, before I capped the game, I grabbed Boise, since this team has proven time and time again that they will always hang with the opposition. Take last year for instance. Boise was completely dominated by TCU in San Diego, but still found a way to lose by only a point despite getting outgained by more than 200 yards. So one would probably think that laying a TD against Boise is a rockheaded notion, especially since these two teams played last year and Boise would conceivably have the motivation edge, since it's much harder to get up for a rematch when you won the first one. However, after looking at this game very carefully, I think that TCU is the right side.I really would rather bet on Boise here, and I must admit that I originally intended to do so, but logic wins out. We'll get back to the motivation angle in a minute.
It seems to me TCU might be as good as anyone in the country. They simply do everything well, and although I don't think they are quite as good defensively as they were last year, they are great in all phases on that side of the ball. Boise is good at a lot of things as well, but whatever they are good at, TCU is better at combating. The two areas that look to be problematic for Boise are TCU's rush offense against their rush defense, and their 3rd down offense against TCU's third down defense. Last year, TCU's running backs gashed Boise for185 yards on 30 carries. Coming into that game, TCU was ranked 46th in rush offense and Boise was ranked 14th against the run. This year, TCU is ranked 6th in ypc while Boise is ranked 57th in stopping the run. If TCU is better running the ball than last year, and Boise is worse, can we expect 250 rush yards from the TCU backs, especially since TCU's pass offense is much improved and must be respected? It's pretty plausible. As for 3rd down offense, Boise is ranked 72nd in 3rd down conversions. This is against a schedule that had only 1 defense ranked in the top 50(Oregon) and only 2 in the top 70. TCU is best in the country in 3rd down conversions. It looks like Boise is going to have a hell of a time sustaining drives if they can't hit on some big plays. TCu has also been remarkably consistent this year. In every single game they played, the averaged more yards per play on offense than their opponent usually gave up, and allowed less yards per play than their opponent averaged on the year. So every one of their opponents had a "bad game" on both sides of the ball against them. Needless to say, that wasn't the case with Boise.
As for the motivation angle, sometimes that's overrated. If you got your ass kicked in front of all your friends by the town bully who is obviously stronger and bigger and meaner than you, would you be looking forward to fighting him again? Especially when this time it's going to be right in the schoolyard and 5 times as many kids are going to be watching? You might be pissed off that you got beat up last time, and you might do your best, but you're not magically going to grow 4 inches and develop 24 inch pythons overnight. I think that's the case with Boise here, especially since their best playmaking receiver Austin Pettis is still a game time decision. He'll probably play, but he's got a bad ankle. Their starting right tackle also got hurt during practice and won't be playing.
Like I said before, Boise has a knack for figuring out ways to hang in games like this, so there is lots of danger in laying a full TD against them, but there is so much going against them in this one that I have to lay with TCU. They were more effective against a much tougher schedule and consistently administered brutal beatings all year long. last thing: Both of these teams have had several bowl teams on their schedule. Boise had 5. Here's how they did in the bowls: two of them played each other (Idaho and BG) so one of them had to win. Here's the rest: Nevada: Destroyed by a 7-5 SMU team out of CUSA. Oregon: Dominated by Ohio St in the Rose Bowl. Fresno: Lost by 7 to possibly the worst bowl team of the past several years(Wyoming, who TCU beat by 35 and outgained by 350 yards). TCU had 6 bowl opponents. here's how they did: Clemson-W over Kentucky. BYU-kicked the shit out of a good Oregon St team. Utah-Handled Cal, another Pac 10 team. AirForce-W. Embarrassed Houston, the 5th ranked offense in the country. SMU-Aforementioned bitchslapper of Nevada, Wyoming-Won against Fresno, as previously mentioned. So that's 1-4 vs 6-0. You can't use the transitive property in football, but it gives us a glimpse into who played the tougher schedule.
I'll have the rest of the bowl season at some point tonight or tomorrow morning...only 3 games left after tonight.
I have to admit that I am very much looking forward to this game tonight, even though I was very disappointed in the matchup when it was announced. there are tons of angles to consider here, and I spent as much time on this game as I have any game I can remember, so I apologize for the length.....
TCU -7 v Boise St: If you want to pay around (-130) you can buy it down to 6.5, which I did to secure a middle. Early on in the Bowl Season, this spread soared to TCU-9. When i saw that, before I capped the game, I grabbed Boise, since this team has proven time and time again that they will always hang with the opposition. Take last year for instance. Boise was completely dominated by TCU in San Diego, but still found a way to lose by only a point despite getting outgained by more than 200 yards. So one would probably think that laying a TD against Boise is a rockheaded notion, especially since these two teams played last year and Boise would conceivably have the motivation edge, since it's much harder to get up for a rematch when you won the first one. However, after looking at this game very carefully, I think that TCU is the right side.I really would rather bet on Boise here, and I must admit that I originally intended to do so, but logic wins out. We'll get back to the motivation angle in a minute.
It seems to me TCU might be as good as anyone in the country. They simply do everything well, and although I don't think they are quite as good defensively as they were last year, they are great in all phases on that side of the ball. Boise is good at a lot of things as well, but whatever they are good at, TCU is better at combating. The two areas that look to be problematic for Boise are TCU's rush offense against their rush defense, and their 3rd down offense against TCU's third down defense. Last year, TCU's running backs gashed Boise for185 yards on 30 carries. Coming into that game, TCU was ranked 46th in rush offense and Boise was ranked 14th against the run. This year, TCU is ranked 6th in ypc while Boise is ranked 57th in stopping the run. If TCU is better running the ball than last year, and Boise is worse, can we expect 250 rush yards from the TCU backs, especially since TCU's pass offense is much improved and must be respected? It's pretty plausible. As for 3rd down offense, Boise is ranked 72nd in 3rd down conversions. This is against a schedule that had only 1 defense ranked in the top 50(Oregon) and only 2 in the top 70. TCU is best in the country in 3rd down conversions. It looks like Boise is going to have a hell of a time sustaining drives if they can't hit on some big plays. TCu has also been remarkably consistent this year. In every single game they played, the averaged more yards per play on offense than their opponent usually gave up, and allowed less yards per play than their opponent averaged on the year. So every one of their opponents had a "bad game" on both sides of the ball against them. Needless to say, that wasn't the case with Boise.
As for the motivation angle, sometimes that's overrated. If you got your ass kicked in front of all your friends by the town bully who is obviously stronger and bigger and meaner than you, would you be looking forward to fighting him again? Especially when this time it's going to be right in the schoolyard and 5 times as many kids are going to be watching? You might be pissed off that you got beat up last time, and you might do your best, but you're not magically going to grow 4 inches and develop 24 inch pythons overnight. I think that's the case with Boise here, especially since their best playmaking receiver Austin Pettis is still a game time decision. He'll probably play, but he's got a bad ankle. Their starting right tackle also got hurt during practice and won't be playing.
Like I said before, Boise has a knack for figuring out ways to hang in games like this, so there is lots of danger in laying a full TD against them, but there is so much going against them in this one that I have to lay with TCU. They were more effective against a much tougher schedule and consistently administered brutal beatings all year long. last thing: Both of these teams have had several bowl teams on their schedule. Boise had 5. Here's how they did in the bowls: two of them played each other (Idaho and BG) so one of them had to win. Here's the rest: Nevada: Destroyed by a 7-5 SMU team out of CUSA. Oregon: Dominated by Ohio St in the Rose Bowl. Fresno: Lost by 7 to possibly the worst bowl team of the past several years(Wyoming, who TCU beat by 35 and outgained by 350 yards). TCU had 6 bowl opponents. here's how they did: Clemson-W over Kentucky. BYU-kicked the shit out of a good Oregon St team. Utah-Handled Cal, another Pac 10 team. AirForce-W. Embarrassed Houston, the 5th ranked offense in the country. SMU-Aforementioned bitchslapper of Nevada, Wyoming-Won against Fresno, as previously mentioned. So that's 1-4 vs 6-0. You can't use the transitive property in football, but it gives us a glimpse into who played the tougher schedule.
I'll have the rest of the bowl season at some point tonight or tomorrow morning...only 3 games left after tonight.
Saturday, January 2, 2010
1/2 Musings
We roll on with the bowl season...a little hiccup on New Year's Day with a couple of very bad calls, especiallyon Cincy+ the points. Urban made me pay for that. I remember saying a couple times this year that Cincy's pass defense was terrible and would eventually get exposed, but that Kelly had figured out a way to camouflage it since they hadn't played any true pass game juggernauts. Well, not sure if they played one last night or not, but they certainly had their pants removed. Almost 500 passing yards for Tebow. it was over from the word go. Bad call there. Not sure what happened to West Virginia either. Maybe they laid down for Bowden. Bill Stewart's a nice guy....wait a minute...I'm questioning "what happened" to West Virginia. I just reminded myself who their coach is. Ok..carry on.
I must say that I really don't have much of a strong opinion on any of the 5 games Saturday..they are all lined pretty appropriately I'd say. Nonetheless, i'll be betting all of them, so I'll let you know which side I'm on and why. As if anyone cares. Musings have been pretty solid though, i have to admit.
NIU +7 1/2 v South Florida: This is more of a gut play, but I have a feeling that NIU will be much more motivated than USF will. This is about the 5th consecutive weak ass bowl that USF has had to play in. Travel to Canada to play a MAC squad? can't be all that exciting for these Florida boys. Add to it that NIU has accorded itself well in their BCS conference games, having played Wisconsin tough and beat Purdue outright while outgaining them by 100+ yards. They're also well coached, and don;t appear to be at a serious disadvantage in any area. 70% of the public is on USF, so you might be able to get more points if you wait for the noon ET kick.
Michigan St +7 1/2 v Texas Tech: There were several things that surprised me when I started looking closely at this game. 1-Michigan St has a better passing game than Tech. 2. Texas Tech has a rather strong defense. 3- Texas Tech gave up a shitload of sacks this year. At first glance I assumed i'd be on Tech due to Michigan st's poor performance against the pass this year, but with the whole Leach distraction, MSU becomes viable. I also recall several times in the past 3-4 bowls where Tech was a strong favorite and laid an egg. Neither team will be able to run, both will probably have some success throwing the ball. I just think more than a score is too much for a team without a coach to cover.
I'm completely stumped by the other 3 games. I'll probably bet on UCONN (+4) against South Carolina based on motivation reasons, and the fact that UCONN matches up pretty well with the Cocks. they're also well coached and have a deceivingly effective offense. We'll see on that one. We'll also see on the Cotton Bowl. I lean toward Oklahoma St(+3), who I usually never bet on, but they have been very good against the run defensively, and if they can stop Dexter McCluster, Jevan Sneed will be ripe for the picking.....Arkansas's pass defense has been bad enough that even ECU should be able to do some damage there. ECU's is not great either, but Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett has entered his name in the draft pool and there are many prior instances where guys' future plans have clashed with their team's best interest in the bowl, so 7.5 might be the play there. After tomorrow, only 4 bowls left. I'll has some thoughts on those later this weekend.
I must say that I really don't have much of a strong opinion on any of the 5 games Saturday..they are all lined pretty appropriately I'd say. Nonetheless, i'll be betting all of them, so I'll let you know which side I'm on and why. As if anyone cares. Musings have been pretty solid though, i have to admit.
NIU +7 1/2 v South Florida: This is more of a gut play, but I have a feeling that NIU will be much more motivated than USF will. This is about the 5th consecutive weak ass bowl that USF has had to play in. Travel to Canada to play a MAC squad? can't be all that exciting for these Florida boys. Add to it that NIU has accorded itself well in their BCS conference games, having played Wisconsin tough and beat Purdue outright while outgaining them by 100+ yards. They're also well coached, and don;t appear to be at a serious disadvantage in any area. 70% of the public is on USF, so you might be able to get more points if you wait for the noon ET kick.
Michigan St +7 1/2 v Texas Tech: There were several things that surprised me when I started looking closely at this game. 1-Michigan St has a better passing game than Tech. 2. Texas Tech has a rather strong defense. 3- Texas Tech gave up a shitload of sacks this year. At first glance I assumed i'd be on Tech due to Michigan st's poor performance against the pass this year, but with the whole Leach distraction, MSU becomes viable. I also recall several times in the past 3-4 bowls where Tech was a strong favorite and laid an egg. Neither team will be able to run, both will probably have some success throwing the ball. I just think more than a score is too much for a team without a coach to cover.
I'm completely stumped by the other 3 games. I'll probably bet on UCONN (+4) against South Carolina based on motivation reasons, and the fact that UCONN matches up pretty well with the Cocks. they're also well coached and have a deceivingly effective offense. We'll see on that one. We'll also see on the Cotton Bowl. I lean toward Oklahoma St(+3), who I usually never bet on, but they have been very good against the run defensively, and if they can stop Dexter McCluster, Jevan Sneed will be ripe for the picking.....Arkansas's pass defense has been bad enough that even ECU should be able to do some damage there. ECU's is not great either, but Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett has entered his name in the draft pool and there are many prior instances where guys' future plans have clashed with their team's best interest in the bowl, so 7.5 might be the play there. After tomorrow, only 4 bowls left. I'll has some thoughts on those later this weekend.
Friday, January 1, 2010
New Years Days Musings
5 games on New Year's Day...here's what I'm looking at. By the way, thank God ESPN is keeping us abreast of what pro prospects are in each bowl game...(Todd McShay's rankings), so that we all can justify watching these games. There must be some sort of effect on the NFL, or there wouldn't be a point to all this nonsense, would there?
Auburn -8 v Northwestern: I was looking far and wide to find reasons to bet on Northwestern here, and I found a couple, like the Cats are good on third down, they've got a scrappy Qb who has had some success throwing it, etc, However, the big reasons, i.e., who will have the edge when these two teams are scrimmaging...it appears to be all Auburn here. Offensively, Auburn has been pretty balanced. Theiy're effective in the run game, they've passed pretty well when they have to, and they haven't been overmatched against anyone, especially in their last game with Bama. The Cats are very well coached, but have clearly overachieved this year. They are ranked almost dead last in college football running the ball, and the things they do well(relatively well anyway) are the things Auburn can stop. Auburn struggles against the run, but as I mentioned NU can't run to save their lives. Defensively, the Cats have been ok, but they definitely give up yards. I also think that Auburn is going to be motivated because they missed a bowl last year, and are on the rise in their opinions, so they'll be looking for reasons to be happy about the prospect of next year. I think the only way the Cats can sneak off in this one is if Auburn is totally disinterested. I don't think that'll happen. The Tigers have a significant edge in every phase here. I really hope I'm wrong, because I'll be rooting hard for the Cats, but I see a tough day for them.
Penn St +1 v LSU: I would normally have great hesitation backing a Bug ten team who hasn't really accomplished much against an athletic SEC team, especially in the favorite's role, but luckily for me, Les Miles is still on the headset. Penn st has mussled through the season pretty much uneventfully, but they've been effective in a lot of ways against the teams they are supposed to beat. They're balanced on offense, and they're well coached. I don't know if it's Joe Pa who's responsible for that or if it's the orange headed assistant or the collection of 55 year assistants that they have, but they are always well coached. It's especially evident when they play against poorly coached teams, and as a fan of the team that employs Ron Zook, I can attest painfully. There is no doubt that they will enjoy a schematic advantage in this one. They'll also enjoy a physical advantage when they're on defense, as LSU is going to have a rogh time getting anything going on offense. As I've mentioned adnauseum, LSU has been outgained for the year, and that's mostly due to a poor offense. LSU will not run on Penn St, and get a load of this: penn st is ranked 6th in the country in sacks, while LSU is 102nd in sacks allowed. This is going to resemble Jacory Harris's night the other night when Wisconsin tossed him around the yard in the Champs Sports Bowl. LSU will probably hold their own when they're on defense, but penn St has a much better chance of doing damage than vice versa. penn St has to be careful in the punt game, however. LSU is tops in the country at returning punts, and Penn St has had all kinds of trouble covering them. Just boot it out of bounds and sack their asses back to where they would have been.
West Virginia -2 1/2 v Florida St: Florida St can't stop a soul on defense. That's pretty much the lesson here. West Virginia's offense is not the end all be all, but they are certainly good enough to hang plenty of crooked numbers on the Noles. Conversely, Florida St is pretty good on offense, but Wv has a scrappy defense and doesn't get embarrassed by anyone. Also keep in mind that the Seminoles aren't quite the same without Christian Ponder back there. It's Bobby Bowden's last game. Good fucking riddance to that senile, condescending, hypocritical, needy old bastard. He stole a National Championship in '93. Get out.
Ohio St +4 v Oregon: Jim Tressel has a good track record when he's a dog and everyone is counting his team out. In non-National Title games, that is. Last year's game against Texas is a good example. Anyway, Oregon has certainly been good, but they are not leaps and bounds better than everyone else in the pac Ten, namely Arizona and Oregon st, both of whom played them to a standstill, and both of whom got their asses kicked in their bowl games against teams not as good as Ohio St. Oregon also has had trouble against physical teams, namely Stanford and Boise, and Ohio St will be the most physical team they have faced yet. If Ohio St can get their run game rolling, it's going to be a long day for the Ducks. Ohio St has also been quite opportunistic on defense, and if they can contain the Duck run game, we've seen what happens when Masoli is forced to throw. I just think there's some good value with the Buckeyes. They'll certainly be jacked up in their first visit to Pasadena in a long time.
Cincinnati +12 1/2 v Florida: I heard Kirk Herbstriet mention that since Urban Meyer has had this whole rigamarole with the resigning and the leave of absence and the subsequent man-love fest at their practices, Cincy shouldn't even bother to show up for this game. I'd like to suggest that this Cincy team is not your average small conference upstart. They are fucking undefeated. They are going to be extremely motivated. I understand that they lost their coach, and Brian Kelly is worth a lot, but the spread reflects that. This offense is the best in the country. I do not think that Florida has faced one in it's class. It's true that Cincy will be taxed to stop Florida, but you can actually find some areas where Cincy might be able to match up with them. (Cincy 6th in sacks, and Tebow's ben sacked plenty). It's not like Florida has been racking up 50 points against everyone on their schedule. The Charleston Southerns and FIUs, yes. The Mississippi States, the South Carolinas...no. Cincy is going to score on these guys...they won't be held to 17 or anything like that in my opinion. This is a prolific passing attack that will be very motivated. Maybe I'll be proven to be a moron here, but i don't see these teams as being that far apart, and if Brian Kelly was still somehow patroling the sideline for Cincy, I'd be calling for the outright.
*edited Penn St line. Moved to PSU +1 on 1/1.
Auburn -8 v Northwestern: I was looking far and wide to find reasons to bet on Northwestern here, and I found a couple, like the Cats are good on third down, they've got a scrappy Qb who has had some success throwing it, etc, However, the big reasons, i.e., who will have the edge when these two teams are scrimmaging...it appears to be all Auburn here. Offensively, Auburn has been pretty balanced. Theiy're effective in the run game, they've passed pretty well when they have to, and they haven't been overmatched against anyone, especially in their last game with Bama. The Cats are very well coached, but have clearly overachieved this year. They are ranked almost dead last in college football running the ball, and the things they do well(relatively well anyway) are the things Auburn can stop. Auburn struggles against the run, but as I mentioned NU can't run to save their lives. Defensively, the Cats have been ok, but they definitely give up yards. I also think that Auburn is going to be motivated because they missed a bowl last year, and are on the rise in their opinions, so they'll be looking for reasons to be happy about the prospect of next year. I think the only way the Cats can sneak off in this one is if Auburn is totally disinterested. I don't think that'll happen. The Tigers have a significant edge in every phase here. I really hope I'm wrong, because I'll be rooting hard for the Cats, but I see a tough day for them.
Penn St +1 v LSU: I would normally have great hesitation backing a Bug ten team who hasn't really accomplished much against an athletic SEC team, especially in the favorite's role, but luckily for me, Les Miles is still on the headset. Penn st has mussled through the season pretty much uneventfully, but they've been effective in a lot of ways against the teams they are supposed to beat. They're balanced on offense, and they're well coached. I don't know if it's Joe Pa who's responsible for that or if it's the orange headed assistant or the collection of 55 year assistants that they have, but they are always well coached. It's especially evident when they play against poorly coached teams, and as a fan of the team that employs Ron Zook, I can attest painfully. There is no doubt that they will enjoy a schematic advantage in this one. They'll also enjoy a physical advantage when they're on defense, as LSU is going to have a rogh time getting anything going on offense. As I've mentioned adnauseum, LSU has been outgained for the year, and that's mostly due to a poor offense. LSU will not run on Penn St, and get a load of this: penn st is ranked 6th in the country in sacks, while LSU is 102nd in sacks allowed. This is going to resemble Jacory Harris's night the other night when Wisconsin tossed him around the yard in the Champs Sports Bowl. LSU will probably hold their own when they're on defense, but penn St has a much better chance of doing damage than vice versa. penn St has to be careful in the punt game, however. LSU is tops in the country at returning punts, and Penn St has had all kinds of trouble covering them. Just boot it out of bounds and sack their asses back to where they would have been.
West Virginia -2 1/2 v Florida St: Florida St can't stop a soul on defense. That's pretty much the lesson here. West Virginia's offense is not the end all be all, but they are certainly good enough to hang plenty of crooked numbers on the Noles. Conversely, Florida St is pretty good on offense, but Wv has a scrappy defense and doesn't get embarrassed by anyone. Also keep in mind that the Seminoles aren't quite the same without Christian Ponder back there. It's Bobby Bowden's last game. Good fucking riddance to that senile, condescending, hypocritical, needy old bastard. He stole a National Championship in '93. Get out.
Ohio St +4 v Oregon: Jim Tressel has a good track record when he's a dog and everyone is counting his team out. In non-National Title games, that is. Last year's game against Texas is a good example. Anyway, Oregon has certainly been good, but they are not leaps and bounds better than everyone else in the pac Ten, namely Arizona and Oregon st, both of whom played them to a standstill, and both of whom got their asses kicked in their bowl games against teams not as good as Ohio St. Oregon also has had trouble against physical teams, namely Stanford and Boise, and Ohio St will be the most physical team they have faced yet. If Ohio St can get their run game rolling, it's going to be a long day for the Ducks. Ohio St has also been quite opportunistic on defense, and if they can contain the Duck run game, we've seen what happens when Masoli is forced to throw. I just think there's some good value with the Buckeyes. They'll certainly be jacked up in their first visit to Pasadena in a long time.
Cincinnati +12 1/2 v Florida: I heard Kirk Herbstriet mention that since Urban Meyer has had this whole rigamarole with the resigning and the leave of absence and the subsequent man-love fest at their practices, Cincy shouldn't even bother to show up for this game. I'd like to suggest that this Cincy team is not your average small conference upstart. They are fucking undefeated. They are going to be extremely motivated. I understand that they lost their coach, and Brian Kelly is worth a lot, but the spread reflects that. This offense is the best in the country. I do not think that Florida has faced one in it's class. It's true that Cincy will be taxed to stop Florida, but you can actually find some areas where Cincy might be able to match up with them. (Cincy 6th in sacks, and Tebow's ben sacked plenty). It's not like Florida has been racking up 50 points against everyone on their schedule. The Charleston Southerns and FIUs, yes. The Mississippi States, the South Carolinas...no. Cincy is going to score on these guys...they won't be held to 17 or anything like that in my opinion. This is a prolific passing attack that will be very motivated. Maybe I'll be proven to be a moron here, but i don't see these teams as being that far apart, and if Brian Kelly was still somehow patroling the sideline for Cincy, I'd be calling for the outright.
*edited Penn St line. Moved to PSU +1 on 1/1.
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