Thursday, January 7, 2010

MNC Musings

Last game of the year. Tough call in my opinion, because I think the spread is where it should be, but I certainly can't sit it out.

Texas +4 1/2 v Alabama: Line moved to 4 1/2 this afternoon. Not sure how long it will stay there, but I grabbed it. Basically, you have two teams that play very good defense(in Texas's case, most of the time). Offensively, you would generally give texas the edge as the more explosive team, but not this year, because Texas has struggled mightily against the two legitimately good defenses they played this year, Nebraska and Oklahoma. I hear a lot about people lending some credence to this being an SEC/Big 12 comparison, and you can't compare SEC speed to B12 speed and all that crap. Do people really think that Texas is at a speed/talent disadvantage against anyone? Texas? The answer to that question is no. I think motivation has to be considered here. People say that no Nick Saban team ever has motivation problems, and that might be true, but I would point to last year's Sugar Bowl as an example. Now obviously, the chances of Bama notbeing jacked for a MNC game are remote, but you can make a case that Texas will be blazing hot coming in as the underdog. Everyone has been telling bama how great they are, they named yesterday Mark Ingram day in Alabama, he won the Heisman, etc. even though Texas has struggled at times this year, that defense is very good, and it will be hard for Bama to impose their will with the running game, since Texas led the country in rushing defense by a mile. Texas is also adept at making a bigger impact on the scoreboard than they do on the stat sheet, and sometimes bama is the anthithesis of that. I just have a hunch that Texas will come in and play very well from the git go and make this a close game with legit shot at the win. I'll take the points here.

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