1/2 Musings

We roll on with the bowl season...a little hiccup on New Year's Day with a couple of very bad calls, especiallyon Cincy+ the points. Urban made me pay for that. I remember saying a couple times this year that Cincy's pass defense was terrible and would eventually get exposed, but that Kelly had figured out a way to camouflage it since they hadn't played any true pass game juggernauts. Well, not sure if they played one last night or not, but they certainly had their pants removed. Almost 500 passing yards for Tebow. it was over from the word go. Bad call there. Not sure what happened to West Virginia either. Maybe they laid down for Bowden. Bill Stewart's a nice guy....wait a minute...I'm questioning "what happened" to West Virginia. I just reminded myself who their coach is. Ok..carry on.

I must say that I really don't have much of a strong opinion on any of the 5 games Saturday..they are all lined pretty appropriately I'd say. Nonetheless, i'll be betting all of them, so I'll let you know which side I'm on and why. As if anyone cares. Musings have been pretty solid though, i have to admit.

NIU +7 1/2 v South Florida: This is more of a gut play, but I have a feeling that NIU will be much more motivated than USF will. This is about the 5th consecutive weak ass bowl that USF has had to play in. Travel to Canada to play a MAC squad? can't be all that exciting for these Florida boys. Add to it that NIU has accorded itself well in their BCS conference games, having played Wisconsin tough and beat Purdue outright while outgaining them by 100+ yards. They're also well coached, and don;t appear to be at a serious disadvantage in any area. 70% of the public is on USF, so you might be able to get more points if you wait for the noon ET kick.

Michigan St +7 1/2 v Texas Tech: There were several things that surprised me when I started looking closely at this game. 1-Michigan St has a better passing game than Tech. 2. Texas Tech has a rather strong defense. 3- Texas Tech gave up a shitload of sacks this year. At first glance I assumed i'd be on Tech due to Michigan st's poor performance against the pass this year, but with the whole Leach distraction, MSU becomes viable. I also recall several times in the past 3-4 bowls where Tech was a strong favorite and laid an egg. Neither team will be able to run, both will probably have some success throwing the ball. I just think more than a score is too much for a team without a coach to cover.

I'm completely stumped by the other 3 games. I'll probably bet on UCONN (+4) against South Carolina based on motivation reasons, and the fact that UCONN matches up pretty well with the Cocks. they're also well coached and have a deceivingly effective offense. We'll see on that one. We'll also see on the Cotton Bowl. I lean toward Oklahoma St(+3), who I usually never bet on, but they have been very good against the run defensively, and if they can stop Dexter McCluster, Jevan Sneed will be ripe for the picking.....Arkansas's pass defense has been bad enough that even ECU should be able to do some damage there. ECU's is not great either, but Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett has entered his name in the draft pool and there are many prior instances where guys' future plans have clashed with their team's best interest in the bowl, so 7.5 might be the play there. After tomorrow, only 4 bowls left. I'll has some thoughts on those later this weekend.