Week 9 Musings

Believe it or not, and I think by now you can all for damn sure believe it, I went 2-11 last week. 45-57-3 now, after having a shot to get back to the positive coming into the week. Ugh. Obviously things got off to a comical start when Northwestern blew their cover in painful fashion, and when I say painful, I mean put your nuts in a vice painful. I never thought I'd see a worse beat than last years Indiana/Iowa debacle, but there it was again. I think everyone knows what happened in that game to make it a loss...I won't rehash it.

I will say this though: This was another week where the musings didn't get any breaks. In any given week, if you have a bunch of games that are coming down within a score of the spread, you expect to split them. Well, I don't expect to split them, but the average gambler should. 2 of the 13 were no brainer wins (the only 2 I won, Cal and UAB), there were 2 that pretty much were blowoput losses (Miami(Oh) courtesy of 5 first half turnovers, and North Carolina) Here are the where the other games stood down the stretch, just for fun:

Northwestern: I'm up 10, getting 6 with 13 minutes left in the game. If I'm on the favorite there, I've given up on the cover. Ends up being a loser.

Indiana: Down 29-13 after 3 getting 14.. 2 pick 6 scores against in this one. Still, with IU, great shot at a backdoor. Doesn't happen, and they lose by 30 despite outgaining Illinois by 100 yards.

Baylor: Up 47-28(laying 5.5) with 10 minutes left. Horrific series of events leads to backdoor. I said in the musing, "...I can see a 57-320 type yardage advantage here." It ended up being 683-407. Baylor was able to have a QB throw for 400+ and a RB run for 250+. Normally, when that happens, you'd expect to win by 30, let alone more than 5. That one was a joke.

LSU: Getting 6, tied at 17 with 5 minutes left. In 90% of cases like this, the game ends up being decided by a FG. Not here. 70 yard TD run. 24-17. Loss. LSU got outgained by 200+, but you assumed that would happen going in, and they'd still figure out a way to have it come down to the wire. it did, but we lost getting 6 anyway.

Iowa: After blowing a chance to go up by 10 by yakking all over themselves after a rare turnover, they can get a push if a very good defense can avoid giving up a TD in crunch time at home. No dice.

Vandy: Tied 7-7 after 3 getting +12 1/2. South Carolina gets a 72 yard TD pass with 6 minutes left to make it 21-7 after TD earlier in the period. Front door cover. It happens. I'm still waiting for one though.

Oklahoma: Lead 21-20 after 3. Is it unreasonable to think that the #1 team might put away a pretender in the 4th quarter and win by more than a FG? Certainly not. Especially if I had been on the pretender. Missouri puts together a 4th quarter unlike any in their history and takes down the Sooners.

Georgia Tech: They play to about 10% of their capacity, allow Ellington to run wild, yet still are a garbage TD away from a cover the entire 4th quarter. 4 drives in Clemson territory end with zero points. Loss.

I'm telling all of you this stuff just to make clear my reasons for telling you to fade these picks. I have a cosmic ability to channel the breaks to one side. So we need to take advantage. I realize that in a lot of cases, you'll be betting on what appears to be the "wrong side", and in many cases it turns out to be. But cashing the ticket is all that matters, baby! Plus, sometimes I make stupid picks. Might as well take advantage of that too. By the way, the turnover tally for these sad sacks was 29-15 against, and 6-1 against on Defensive/ST TDs.

Another thing: I listen to XM radio during the week when I'm driving. One of the shows I listen to is a show based in Alabama that takes calls from fans throughout the South. These people are obsessed with Boise State. I think that many of them will go on postal service type rampages if Boise ever gets into the MNC game. their argument is that Boise doesn't deserve to play in the MNC game because they play a weak schedule. They'd never make it in the SEC, etc. First, don;t give me the "SEC" argument because if they were in the SEC, Chris Peterson would have SEC players. It's apples and oranges. Second, let's play along here. Give Boise Alabama's schedule this year, which most observers contend is the toughest SEC slate this year(no Kentucky, Vandy out of the East). What would Boise do against it? Let's take a look.

San Jose St: Already did that (at SJSU though) 48-0 W
Penn St: W
@Duke W
@Arkansas: Tossup. Just like it was for Alabama.
Florida: This year? W
@South Carolina: Tossup. Depends on what Stephen garcia shows up. Just like for Alabama
Ole Miss: W
@Tennessee W
@LSU: Tossup. But the coaching matchup would be so severe, I'd have to lean Boise. Just like I'd lean to Alabama.
Mississippi St: W
Georgia St(????) W
Auburn: On the Blue turf? Lean Boise, just like I would lean to Bama at home.

Boise also got a lot of flack because they didn't completely destroy La Tech on tuesday night. They won 49-20. If Alabama had played la tech at home on tuesday night, what would the score have been? 38-7? Probably. ok.

My point is this: Yeah, a 1 loss Alabama team should probably go to the MNC game over an undefeated Boise. But you can't tell me that it's a cut and dried case and Boise is a totally inferior team to most of the SEC. If Boise was in the SEC this year, they'd probably lose 1 or 2 games. Just like Alabama.

On to this week.

1. Syracuse +10 1/2 @Cincinnati: Looking at the individual units of these teams, I can't really find any edge for one team over the other, except in a couple spots I can see an edge for the Cuse. Whatever Cincy does well on offense, Syracuse handles it on defense. Cincy also is not at all overpowering on defense, which eases some pressure on a weak but improving Syracuse offense. it's kind of an uneven situation for the Orange, since they are coming off the big win over WV and Cincy lost a home game last week, but sometimes momentum has a way of continuing in a turn-around type season. This line just came up after being off the board for awhile due to Zach Collaros's uncertain status, but I think it'll settle in at 10+ when he's cleared to play. I'd actually like Syracuse outright if he doesn't play. The Cuse actually has a big advantage on the DL/OL matchup and Cincy has been a turfadenover machine this year. It'll be tough for them to cover a DD spread at this juncture.

3. @Boston College +7 v Clemson: I've been fading Clemfadeson with no success the last couple weeks, but these assholes deserve it. They still can't do anything on offense other than hand it to Andre Ellington and hop he runs for a TD. Clemson couldn't throw the ball to save their lives against Maryland, and they weren't much better against GT last week. Right now, off of two comfortable(though they shouldn't have been) victories at home and a 2-5 BC team in front of them, they are fat and happy. They also have Nc State and FSU coming up the next two weeks, so it will take a good coaching job to avoid a letdown/lookahead situation. Enter Dabo Swinney. BC on the other hand is off a frustrating home loss to Maryland. They've struggled offensively, but have looked better the past 2 weeks, including a road trip to Tallahassee where they moved the ball pretty well with a new QB. They stop the run very well, ranking 4th in the country, and it's not a fluke, as they've stopped some good rushing attacks(VT, ND, FSU). They've got Wake, Duke, Virginia and Syracuse left on their schedule, so if they grab this one, they can still salvage their season. I think Clemson will get their best shot, so the Tigers better be planning on doing somefadething more than rolling their helmets out there.

2. Purdue +17 @Illinois: Frankly, I can't believe that this spread is so high. It's totally inflated from the results of last week, when Purdue got obliterated by Ohio St and Illinois blew out Indiana, despite being outgained by 100 yards, only totaling 287 against one of the worst defenses in the country. Statistically, these two teams are actually pretty close. Purfadedue has been ok defensively, certainly much better than Indiana. They've already beaten Northwestern on the road, and certainly will conjure up a better performance in Champaign than they did in Columbus. On the other hand, Illinois is getting comfy with themselves, have a second home game against an underwhelming opponent in a row, and might sleepwalk a bit through this one. If Purdue gets a couple of early breaks, they could easily win this game outright. You have a mad team against a fat and happy team, who are pretty similar in performance so far, and the mad team is getting 17. 17!!! Granted, the Illini are better, but they are prone to boneheadedness and are not explosive on offense, giving them less margin for error. I'd recommend a $10 money line bet for the heck of it too.

4. San Diego St -10 @Wyoming: Generally you'd hate to lay 10 with a team that has had the recent succes of SDSU, but this year is a bit different. their two losses were a last second fluke 90 yard TD pass loss at Missouri by 3, and a 3 point loss to BYU in a game that is still being investigated by the Mountain West due to a terribly blown replay call. You'll probably hear more about that pretty soon, because there are credible accusations that BYU alums rigged that process in the game. It's messy. Anyway, they've been good. Wyoming is currently ranked 119th in yards per play on offense, as usual. they are also ranked 109th in yards per pfadelay against. Double whammy. They can't score, they can't stop anyone. They're a bunch of nice kids, but it doesn't look to me like they can hang with a team that has played well all year, and appears to be very well coached with good balance. They are ranked 15th on offense and 40th on D, so big mismatches on both sides of the ball. Save some wierd circumstances, SDSU should win this one comfortably.

5. @UCF -7 1/2 v East Carolina: I normally buy spreads like this down, and I would do it here also, though I have a suspicion that it won't be necessary. ECU has really lived a charmed life this year. They are scoring points by the bushel, but yet are only 46th in ypp, 60th in rushing yards per carry and 54th in pass efficiency. They scored 44 points at Southern Miss on 338 total yards and a bunch of fluke plays. The rest of their damage has been against the likes of Memphis(110th) and Tulsa (108th). By the way, they were outgained by that pathetic Memphis team. Defensively, ECCu hasn;t stopped anyone. They are 97th in 3rd downs against, 79th in total defense. On the other hand, UCF has a great defense and an improving offense. Defensively, they completely shut down Kansas St on the road and harassed Russell Wilson into the worst game of his career earlier this year. (10/30, 105 yards). Also, UCF is treating this as the biggest game thfadeey've played at home in several years, as ECU has knocked them out of the CUSA title 3 years in a row, and the teams are currently tied in the standings. Big home game for a jacked up team that will probably be able to dominate defensively and will be facing a soft defense.

6. @Marshall -2 1/2 v UTEP: Ugh. Another CUSA game here, I know. take a look at the records (Marshall 1-6 and UTEP 5-3) and you wonder why Marshall is favored. Well, take a closer look at UTEP's schedule. They were blown out by Houston, beat the New Mexico brotherhood of feebleness(NMSU and New Mexico) and Rice at home. In their last 2 games, they have been completely non-competitive with UAB on the road, and got dominated at home by Tulane (461-286 yardage advantage). Marshall has played Ohio St, West Virginia(had them beat), and in conference, Southern Miss, East Carolina and UCF who are probably the three best teams in CUSA at this point. UTEP looks to me to be a team that must be faded here, as their team appeared to give up last week. The same guys have been plfadeaying for what seems to be forever(QB Vittatoe has been there as long as I can remember. Things have gotten stale and it appears that Mike Price has lost them a little bit. Their previous long road trips east have been disastrous for them, much like the UAB trip was last year. They've also been hammered in recent years on trips to UCF, East Carolna and Buffalo. They don't travel well back to the east. We're only looking for Marshall to win here, and Huntington is a tough place to play.

7. Michigan St +7 @Iowa: The spread has now hit 7 at Bodog, so I am going to pull the trigger. I originally was expecting to play Iowa here, but the spread came out higher than I thought. I think the chances that Iowa gets frustrated and starts wondering about themselves after last week's debacle is more likely than a pissed off scorched earth type performance. Also, MfadeSU is solid in pretty much all phases, and has the world to play for. Iowa now has 2 losses, so their season is looking more and more like a garden variety Capital One Bowl year, rather than something special. These teams are evenly matched, I like Dantofadenio and MSU has been getting the breaks. If MSU won it outright, it wouldn't surprise me in the least, so I think it's prudent to take the TD.

8. @Ole Miss +7 v Auburn: Auburn has played two road games this year, @Miss St and @ Kentucky and both of them came down to the wire as 3 point wins for Auburn. Auburn's defadeense, while not as bad as some have painted it, is certainly not good. Last week, we all saw Jordan Jefferson have success against them in the zone read option, and if he can do that, you know that Masoli can certainly do it. Ole Miss has had some nice opffensive games when matched up against lacking defenses. I think they'll fade be ok here. Also, defensively they've been pretty good against the run, neither Ingram nor Richardson had success against them in Tuscaloosa) and if you can make Newton beat you in any other way than by his own runs, that's what you want to do. The "Houston Nutt upsets people when you least expect it" story has been greatly overplayed, but it has validity. Auburn hasn't won a road game by more than 7 since 2005.

9 Utah -7 @Air Force: This is a terribly public play, which I hate doing, but this one looks like a bad matchup for the Air Force. They have several guys injured, including Jared Tew, one of their better offensive players. They are now on a 2 game losing strak and have to deal with Utah coming off some great performances. The Utes have been running the ball down people's throats and stopping the run. That's bad news for the Falcons, since they're ranked 111th against the run. If this game was played earlier in the season when the falcons were healthy, they might have a good shot in this one, but not now.

10. Michigan -3 @Penn St: You know, if I'm wrong on this one, I'll actually gladly hand over my cash, because it will mean that the DICKROD out of control locomotive to hell is still on track. However, I don't see it. Penn State handled Minnesota last week, but they are just terrible on offense. Minnesota normally gives up 7.4 yards per play(!!), Penn fade State gained 6.3. Minny gives up 5.59 per rush, Penn State got 4.7. Minnesota is among the worst in the country in 3rd down confadeversions agaisnt, Penn St went 2 for 10. Bad matchups for Michigan are teams that have some explosion on offense and can trade scores with them, and Penn State is not that team. I also am skeptical that Penn State can have success against Denard Robinson, and if they don't, they'll have to put up 30 plus to win. I'd love to see PSU win this, but I doubt it will happen.

11. @USC +7 v Oregon: The line is fluctuating between 6.5 and 7, but you can get 7 at sportsbook and bodog right now as I write this. This is another hunch, but I think Oregon is going to have a very hard time getting stops against USC, as we all know USC will have trying to get the Ducks off the field. Oregon has only played one game on the road against a legitimate outfit, and that was at Arizona St. (Tennessee and Washington State were the others). In that game, their offense morphed from an unstofadeppable juggernaut to merely a good offense, gaining 405 total yards. Defensively, they gave up 597, and I think USC might have similar offensive success, or even better as they have much better offensive personnel than Arizona St has. It's hard to cover a TD spread when you can't stop the other team, and their offense is going to lose a few MPH moving from that fade carpet up north to the grass at the Coloseum. If USC can get rolling a bit on defense, I can see them having success that we wouldn't previously fathom, having gotten used to that Duck offense in Eugene. Oregon always looks great during the season, but they have yet to prove they can escape a season unscathed. I think they are going to lose at some point, adn there's no better time for it than here. USC in a prohibitive underdog role is wierd.


others: Leaning toward Baylor +7 at Texas, since the Horns just can't get anything going on offense, regardless of how bad the D is(See Iowa St for evidence).....Florida is a dog in the Cocktail Party, and Georgia is an oveerwhelming public favorite at -3. that doesn't seem right, though I see why based on Florida's horrific offensive performances lately. Meyer is off a bye week, though, and we're still talking about a Georgia team that everyone assumed was toast only 2 weeks ago. I'll be on Florida....Cal has the statistical edge in every conceivable offensive and defensive category, but I can't overlook the fact that Cal slides at this time of year every year, and Oregon St (-3) starts kicking ass every year at this time of the year. OSu has also owned Cal since Mike Riley came back, and Cal has loofadeked retarded on the road this year in most instances. Not a musing because OSU has a terrible defense, but I'd be very surprised if cal goes into Corvalis and wins. Also lean Kentucky(+6) at Mississippi St. that team is a bunch of scrappy fighters, and Miss St is nto great in the favorite role. Much better offense with Kentucky, but better defense with MSU. Just a hunch that Kentucky pulls off the outright, as MSU believe it or not is already bowl eligible, so a loss here doesn't really change their lot in life. Kentucky is only 4-4, so a win here definitely does with Vandy and Tennessee still left to on the schedulefade.

That's it for now...have a great fadeend.