3-1 yesterday for a 3-2 start to the weekend. Stupid A&M, or better yet, stupid Pete for hitching my hopes to that bunch of hacks. On to the rest.
6. Ohio St +7.5 @Michigan: Even though it looks like Michigan is in good shape to break the painful losing streak that they're on against OSU, I don't think this is going to be a blowout. This kids on Ohio St have watched Michigan basically quit and roll over 3 years in a row, and they certainly will not go down without a fight. I also think that Ohio St is a good matchup for this offense, as they aren't going to be run over and they have done a mostly good job against the pass this year. Also, if Michigan has a weakness, it's run defense. If Michigan comes out and plays anything other than their best game, they are in danger of losing this one outright.
7. Iowa St +28.5 @Oklahoma: Even though this would appear to be a major situational problem for Iowa St, coming off their huge win over Okie St along with Oklahoma coming off a crushing loss to Baylor(nice calls by the musings on those two), I think Iowa St is a good enough team to handle this line. The win over Okie St last week was no joke...the Cyclones outgained and overcame a terrible pick 6 to win the game. They're also already bowl eligible, they aren't just a flash in the pan. Also, Oklahoma is not quite the same team without Ryan Broyles. I'm not sure I'd be playing this if the line was under 4 TDs, but even if Iowa St is down 35 points late, in a complete blowout, they will have a chance for the backdoor with a late score. I think the chances are pretty good that they'll stay within this number.
8. @Utah St -1 v Nevada: The numbers scream out that Utah St is the better team in this one. Both teams run the ball well, especially Utah St who is in the top 5 in the country in yards per carry. Both are competent passing attacks as well, but the difference is that Utah St has a much better defense than Nevada, who has struggled at times to stop people, especially against the run. I think Utah St shapes up to have a much easier time against the Nevada defense compared to vice versa, and Utah St is at home. They also have some major motivation as they are trying to secure their first bowl bid in something like 25 years.
9. Wyoming +32 @ Boise St: Even though it should be somewhat of a Cardinal rule to never go against Boise on the blue turf, in this case, I think it's asking a hell of a lot to cover 32 in this one. Boise has shown that although they are still a very good team, they are not measuring up to past Boise teams, and this is a spread (32 points against a 7-3 team) that is more appropriate for previous Boise squads. This one has struggled to stop the run, and has given up yards through the air as well. I actually have Wyoming with the edge in the running game in this one. 32 is just too much here...Wyoming is a pretty solid squad.
10. @Minnesota +11 Illinois: As an Illini fan, this one looks like a sure thing to me. Illinois chooses not to score on offense, for reasons unknown. They look to have a major advantage with their defense against Minny's offense, but that doesn't mean anything because their special teams will undoubtedly give Minny a couple 10 yard fields when their punter executes his weekly dropped snap at the 5 yard line. Minnesota is much improved, having beaten Iowa and outgained Michigan St and Northwestern in recent weeks. Illinois is headed the other direction, seemingly incapable of doing anything other than completely fucking up everything they touch. So I'm a bit skeptical that they can cover an 11 point spread on the road. I give them a 33% chance of winning the game.
11. @Indiana +8 v Purdue: I'm of the opinion that every dog, even the most pathetic, mangy, gutter rat, eventually has his day. Just about everyone gets one win in conference, and this is Indiana's last chance. They have a nice candidate for a victory in Purdue, who is winless on the road, including a loss to Rice. They've also struggled against the run, which is one of the rare things Indiana is adequate at doing. Indiana also has some sort of shot at stopping Purdue's pedestrian offense. They beat Purdue last year in Bill Lynch's swan song in a similar situation in West Lafayette, so I think they can make a game of it here.
12. Florida St -3 @Florida: Florida can't move the ball on anyone, especially good defenses, and FSU is among the best in the country. Facing defenses like this is nothing new for Florida, as they've already experienced the unpleasantness of playing Alabama, LSU and South Carolina, but they proved they can't move it on any of them. FSU is better on offense, and they have the intestinal fortitude to grab a victory here. Florida has proven that they don't under the ineffective tutelege of the hapless Charlie Weis and that maniac Muschamp.
13. @South Carolina -3.5 v Clemson: At first glance, I saw this line and thought the wrong team was favored, but on closer inspection, I like the Cocks here. First of all, once again Clemson has nothing but prode to play for, and they appear to have that quality in short supply, as a dead skunk against a non-team last week would suggest. Not the case for South Carolina, this will be a big game for them, at home against their rival without a conference title game to look forward to. As soon as things start to fall apart for Clemson, they have something else to focus on. They also are a bad matchup for South Carolina's defense, who is among the best in the country and forces a lot of turnovers. South Carolina, on the other hand, might see some class relief, as Clemson's defense is nothing to write home about.
14. @USC -16 v UCLA: USC has proven week after week that they don't need postseason play to be motivated, and Lane Kiffin deserves some kudos for that. This week, they get a chance to play the Pac 12 South champion (ha ha) since they aren't eligible for the honor. Do you think they might like to make a statement as to how preposterous the concept of the words "UCLA" and "champion" is? They probably won't punt all night unless they feel like giving their punter some work, and now that UCLA has the South locked up, they'll just want to get out of this game without hurting themselves. This looks to me to be a major blowout. There's also some bad blood from last year, so don't expect Kiffin to call off the dogs.
Others: I like Northwestern(+6), since they have all the motivation and an offense that stays on the field all day, but I'd like to have a TD, since the Cats always find ways to lose tough heartbreakers at home....I like Rutgers(-4) chances to beat UCONN rather handily because they are playing for a BCS bid and UCONN won't be able to move the ball on them....Penn State (+14.5) would definitely be a musing if I wasn't convinced that the Big Ten will do everything humanly possible to keep them out of the Big Ten championship game. They made sure Wisconsin won last week to set up this game, since Penn State doesn't figure to be able to win this. However, if PSU starts to get some momentum, expect an avalanche of "questionable" calls against the Nits. I'm not going to be on the other side of that. I think Penn State will give Wisconsin all they can handle though.....I think VT is going to handle Virginia, but the line moved to 5.5, which I'm a bit skeptical of....LaLA has a shot at hanging within 13.5 of Arizona.....I would have been all over Colorado St if their line hadn't moved from 16.5 to 11.5 over the past couple of days. I don't think Air Force can stop CSU effectively enough to cover a big line like that on the road....I think Notre Dame and Stanford are pretty evenly matched, so I lean to ND, but that's assuming no mind-numbing turnovers take place for the Irish, which we all know is a preposterous assumption.
That's it for this week. Take care!
Saturday, November 26, 2011
Thanksgiving Musings Part 2
Nice work by A&M to leave their great fans with the enduring memory of a losing effort against one of the weaker Texas outfits of the past 20 years. The game went about how I thought it would: Texas would try to run the ball and would fail at it. (86 yards on 37 attempts). Case McCoy would try to manage the game with short passes, and would accomplish nothing in the passing game. (110 yards passing, one completion over 10 yards). Based on that offensive ineptitude, I thought that A&M would need 21 points to cover. Silly me, as I didn't account for the inevitable orgy of turnovers, gadget play fluke TD and obligatory defensive TD by Texas. Oh well....need to catch up in the rest of the games.
2. Louisville +3.5 @South Florida: Both of these defenses are probably going to have the edge over the respective offenses in this one, so it looks like a pretty low scoring game. As a result 3.5 becomes valuable. In this game, I think these teams are extremely interchangeable, and it's a complete tossup as to who comes away with the win. That's with USF QB BJ Daniels healthy, which he is not. Backup Bobby Eveld will start reportedly, and he has been brutal in the games he's played. USF is unlikely tobe able to throw the ball effectively, and Louisville is ranked 9th against the run. USF is coming off a 3 point performance at home last week against Miami, and Louisville is a significantly better defensive team than Miami. I like Louisville in this one outright, although I'm sure that the Cards will find some difficulty moving the ball as well.
3. @Utah -22 v Colorado: Colorado shit the bed last week, laying down, grabbing their ankles and geting drilled by a UCLA team that barely even bothers emplying a defense. They talked all week about how jacked they were to play in the Rose Bowl, and how their win over Arizona gave them renewed vigor. That's pretty laughable...they were down 21-0 before UCLA even ran 5 offensive plays. See ya later. Now they go to Utah, who still needs wins to improve their bowl situation. Their defense is suffocating. If the 102nd ranked UCLA defense can hold Colorado to 6 points, Utah can hold them to negative 27. Colorado's defense is one f the 5 worst in FBS, so you can expect Utah to be scoring at will. This should probably be a 41-6 type game. Basically, it will be as bad as Utah wants it to be.
4. @LSU -12 v Arkansas: Arkansas has played one game all year in a tough environment, and they got curb stomped by Alabama in that one. Now they head to Baton Rouge in a game that LSU's entire season hinges on. Arkansas finds themselves in an unbelievably lucky position: Lose the only game of note on your schedule, win a bunch of nondescript games, and find yourself with a chance to go to the MNC game if you can win just one game. Granted, it's about the toughest game you can fathom, but I'm sure even the Hogs can't believe their good fortune. Everything has broken right for them this year. Texas A&M imploded for them, they played like crap on the road but were lucky enough to be playing Ole Miss and Vandy when they did, got South Carolina at home without Lattimore and without a QB, etc, etc. Meanwhile, LSU has been dominating the regular season, but will se it all for nothing if they lose this one. Defensively, Arkansas has been giving up big plays through the air all year, and LSU if explosive in that regard. Arky will be getting their best shot. If they can compete, my hat's off to them. I'm a big fan of Petrino, but Arkansas has not shown this year that they can compete in this spot. I think LSU handles them easily.
5. Pitt +7 @West Virginia: This is another game in which the two teams are very evenly matched. Pitt has been strong defensively, and WV has has all kind of goofy issues this year, causing the couch burners to throw up their hands in disgust on severl occasions. Throw in the fact that this is a rivalry game, these two teams are evenly matched, if not statistically favoring Pitt a bit, and I'll take the TD. If Louisville can win at Morgantown, Pitt certainly can.
Others(for today): Iowa is getting 9.5 at Nebraska. I think Iowa has enough offense to move the ball effectively on Nebraska's overrated defense, but I'm a bit skeptical of them on the road. They finally won a road game last week at Purdue, but the situation is much worse this week, as Nebraska is coming off a brutal beating at the hands of Michigan last week. On paper, Iowa is the play, but situationally, it shapes up as a bad spot for the Hawkeyes.....I don't play the MAC anymore, but Temple(-17) should blow out Kent State....
That's it for today, I'll have the Saturday stuff later on, hopefully tonight. Take care!
2. Louisville +3.5 @South Florida: Both of these defenses are probably going to have the edge over the respective offenses in this one, so it looks like a pretty low scoring game. As a result 3.5 becomes valuable. In this game, I think these teams are extremely interchangeable, and it's a complete tossup as to who comes away with the win. That's with USF QB BJ Daniels healthy, which he is not. Backup Bobby Eveld will start reportedly, and he has been brutal in the games he's played. USF is unlikely tobe able to throw the ball effectively, and Louisville is ranked 9th against the run. USF is coming off a 3 point performance at home last week against Miami, and Louisville is a significantly better defensive team than Miami. I like Louisville in this one outright, although I'm sure that the Cards will find some difficulty moving the ball as well.
3. @Utah -22 v Colorado: Colorado shit the bed last week, laying down, grabbing their ankles and geting drilled by a UCLA team that barely even bothers emplying a defense. They talked all week about how jacked they were to play in the Rose Bowl, and how their win over Arizona gave them renewed vigor. That's pretty laughable...they were down 21-0 before UCLA even ran 5 offensive plays. See ya later. Now they go to Utah, who still needs wins to improve their bowl situation. Their defense is suffocating. If the 102nd ranked UCLA defense can hold Colorado to 6 points, Utah can hold them to negative 27. Colorado's defense is one f the 5 worst in FBS, so you can expect Utah to be scoring at will. This should probably be a 41-6 type game. Basically, it will be as bad as Utah wants it to be.
4. @LSU -12 v Arkansas: Arkansas has played one game all year in a tough environment, and they got curb stomped by Alabama in that one. Now they head to Baton Rouge in a game that LSU's entire season hinges on. Arkansas finds themselves in an unbelievably lucky position: Lose the only game of note on your schedule, win a bunch of nondescript games, and find yourself with a chance to go to the MNC game if you can win just one game. Granted, it's about the toughest game you can fathom, but I'm sure even the Hogs can't believe their good fortune. Everything has broken right for them this year. Texas A&M imploded for them, they played like crap on the road but were lucky enough to be playing Ole Miss and Vandy when they did, got South Carolina at home without Lattimore and without a QB, etc, etc. Meanwhile, LSU has been dominating the regular season, but will se it all for nothing if they lose this one. Defensively, Arkansas has been giving up big plays through the air all year, and LSU if explosive in that regard. Arky will be getting their best shot. If they can compete, my hat's off to them. I'm a big fan of Petrino, but Arkansas has not shown this year that they can compete in this spot. I think LSU handles them easily.
5. Pitt +7 @West Virginia: This is another game in which the two teams are very evenly matched. Pitt has been strong defensively, and WV has has all kind of goofy issues this year, causing the couch burners to throw up their hands in disgust on severl occasions. Throw in the fact that this is a rivalry game, these two teams are evenly matched, if not statistically favoring Pitt a bit, and I'll take the TD. If Louisville can win at Morgantown, Pitt certainly can.
Others(for today): Iowa is getting 9.5 at Nebraska. I think Iowa has enough offense to move the ball effectively on Nebraska's overrated defense, but I'm a bit skeptical of them on the road. They finally won a road game last week at Purdue, but the situation is much worse this week, as Nebraska is coming off a brutal beating at the hands of Michigan last week. On paper, Iowa is the play, but situationally, it shapes up as a bad spot for the Hawkeyes.....I don't play the MAC anymore, but Temple(-17) should blow out Kent State....
That's it for today, I'll have the Saturday stuff later on, hopefully tonight. Take care!
Week 13 Thanksgiving Musings (1st edition)
Sorry these are posted after the fact. Nobody reads this anyway.
Last week started bad with Okie St shitting the bed, got good through most of the day Saturday, then completely fell off the map during the night games. The musings ended up 7-6 after all four night games failing miserably, which results in an overall record of 81-77-3. I can't say that I'm all that disappointed in Oklahoma and Oregon losing, especially Oklahoma, as I've been able to brew up a healthy amount of disdain for them. As much as I dont want to see a rematch, at this point it looks pretty inevitable that LSU and Alabama are on a collision course for New Orleans. It's unfair to LSU, but what can you do? Actually, LSU is in a very tough spot because if they lose, it will be at the worst possible time. Consider this: If they lose to Arkansas, they are going to be eliminated from contention, due to the fact that Arkansas is ranked as high as they are. If LSU loses and Alabama wins, the voters will almost certainly move both Bama and Arkansas up. Arkansas will be #2, and in the catbird seat They won't have to play in Atlanta, as Bama will play Georgia. LSU, after dominating the regular season, will be out, and Arkansas, by virtue of one solid win all year, will be in to play a Bama team that drilled them earlier in the year. Fair or not, that's the way it will probably work out. Wisconsin is probably kicking themselves. If they could play pass defnse inthe final minute, they'd be in position to be playing for a title.
1. @Texas A&M -8 v Texas: Big rivalry game here, so it's obviously dangerous to be laying more than a score, but I think this sets up as a bad matchup for Texas. They are struggling mightily on offense against decent defensive squads, as they last road outing against Missouri suggests. Their M.O. is to run it, and try to manage the game with a short passing game, since their young QBs are either not capable, or not allowed to go downfield. They will not be able to run it in Kyle Field against A&M. The Aggies are ranked 4th in the country against the run, and have stopped much better offenses than Texas from running effectively. Also, Texas's top 2 running backs are injured. Throw in the fact that A&M is tops in the country in sacks, and you realize that things do not bode well for Texas once the Aggies start pinning their ears back.Texas has been good on defense, but generally only against weak passing attacks that are skewed toward a running style. Oklahoma and Oklahoma St rung up points on them, and A&M is more in that vain than teams like Kansas and Kansas St who Texas had their way with. I think if A&M can manage 21 points, they'll be able to cover this number. This is also the last game for this rivalry for awhile, so you can be sure that Texas will get the Aggies' best shot. They'll get the 12th man's best shot too.
I'll have the Friday games later...take care and have a great Thanksgiving.
Last week started bad with Okie St shitting the bed, got good through most of the day Saturday, then completely fell off the map during the night games. The musings ended up 7-6 after all four night games failing miserably, which results in an overall record of 81-77-3. I can't say that I'm all that disappointed in Oklahoma and Oregon losing, especially Oklahoma, as I've been able to brew up a healthy amount of disdain for them. As much as I dont want to see a rematch, at this point it looks pretty inevitable that LSU and Alabama are on a collision course for New Orleans. It's unfair to LSU, but what can you do? Actually, LSU is in a very tough spot because if they lose, it will be at the worst possible time. Consider this: If they lose to Arkansas, they are going to be eliminated from contention, due to the fact that Arkansas is ranked as high as they are. If LSU loses and Alabama wins, the voters will almost certainly move both Bama and Arkansas up. Arkansas will be #2, and in the catbird seat They won't have to play in Atlanta, as Bama will play Georgia. LSU, after dominating the regular season, will be out, and Arkansas, by virtue of one solid win all year, will be in to play a Bama team that drilled them earlier in the year. Fair or not, that's the way it will probably work out. Wisconsin is probably kicking themselves. If they could play pass defnse inthe final minute, they'd be in position to be playing for a title.
1. @Texas A&M -8 v Texas: Big rivalry game here, so it's obviously dangerous to be laying more than a score, but I think this sets up as a bad matchup for Texas. They are struggling mightily on offense against decent defensive squads, as they last road outing against Missouri suggests. Their M.O. is to run it, and try to manage the game with a short passing game, since their young QBs are either not capable, or not allowed to go downfield. They will not be able to run it in Kyle Field against A&M. The Aggies are ranked 4th in the country against the run, and have stopped much better offenses than Texas from running effectively. Also, Texas's top 2 running backs are injured. Throw in the fact that A&M is tops in the country in sacks, and you realize that things do not bode well for Texas once the Aggies start pinning their ears back.Texas has been good on defense, but generally only against weak passing attacks that are skewed toward a running style. Oklahoma and Oklahoma St rung up points on them, and A&M is more in that vain than teams like Kansas and Kansas St who Texas had their way with. I think if A&M can manage 21 points, they'll be able to cover this number. This is also the last game for this rivalry for awhile, so you can be sure that Texas will get the Aggies' best shot. They'll get the 12th man's best shot too.
I'll have the Friday games later...take care and have a great Thanksgiving.
Friday, November 18, 2011
Week 12 Musings
Well, this is the last full card of games, although scheduling changes have turned Thanksgiving week into pretty much a full week. Thuis week is a weak card...no real barnburner games, but certainly some that we can brew up some interest for via the degenerate pastime. 8-5 last week to move the season total to 74-71-3. A bad break on the Miami/FSU game kept it from being a really nice week, but I'm sure we got some nice breaks in the wins.
The debate continues to rage on who LSU should play in the MNC game, assuming that Okie State stumbles. Although I bristle a little bit at the assumption that they are going to lose, I can understand it. It's just hard to believe that they'll follow through and take care of business, especially with Oklahoma staring them down Dec 3rd. I really hope they go undefeated though, because in my opinion, there really aren't any other teams worthy of facing off with LSU assuming they go undefeated. As we've mentioned, a Bama rematch is completely unfair to LSU. Oklahoma lost to one of the worst teams in the country, Texas Tech, so they should be out. Oregon is in almost the same boat as Alabama, having already lost to LSU, but I'd be more inclined to give them another shot than Bama because their game was longer ago, they had all kinds of shitty breaks, and the game was on a neutral site. Stanford is out, Boise is out. Assuming Okie St loses in a shootout, I'd almost give them the nod. At this point though, I think they are going to win that Bedlam game. The funniest thing about this whole conundrum, however, is that you can make a case that LSU has a tougher road than Alabama. Bama has Ga Southern(!!!) and an Auburn team who no longer employs an actual offense. LSU still has Arkansas and the stupid SEC Championship game in which they will play a capable Georgia team. There are some crazy scenarios if LSU loses. If they lose to Arkansas, Bama goes to Atlanta because the West becomes a 3 way tie and Bama hold the tiebreaker. If they lose to Georgia, one of Bama or LSU(probably LSU) won't even make the BCS. It's crazy. Stay tuned.
Speaking of the SEC, I see where Archie Manning, world's greatest and most respected living human, has been tabbed to chair the committe picking the new Ole Miss coach. A lot of discussion has followed saying that it almost doesn't matter who they pick because even in a best case scenario, they'll never be better than 3rd in that division, since they have no shot of passing up Bama and LSU. It might seem that way, but let's consider something. Let's pretend that Nick Saban decided to stick around at Michigan St in 1999. Does anybody remember what LSU looked like before he got there? In the ten years before Saban got there, LSU's record was 54-65. They sucked. How about Alabama before Saban got there? 67-55. Not exactly a juggernaut. Both programs had sub .500 conference records during those decade long periods. If Nick Saban decides he's had enough of the maniacal. suicidal psychopaths that cheer for his team and leaves tomorrow, they might be right back where they started. If he decided that the dump truck full of money that they desperately showered on him 5 years wasn't worth it and he stayed in the NFL, where would they be? Probably rifling through the second or third stiff that more closely resembled the other 5 stiffs they had hired since Gene Stallings. So one guy, making one decision, completely changed the power structure of the SEC for a decade. It's that easy. All that matters is the coach. If you get the right guy, you'll be good. If you don't, you'll suck, regardless of how much"tradition" your program has. Just ask Indiana basketball.
On to the week.
1. (FRIDAY) Oklahoma St -27 @ Iowa St: After much hemming and hawing, I am going to stay with the Cowboys in the road favorite role, even though it's bordering on ridiculous. Having said that, I think their defense, the most underrated defense in America, will shut down ISu and they will score as usual. You may once again see a spread covered at halftime by these maniacs. Iowa St is decent on defense, but decent against OSU gets you the wrong side of a 55 spot.
2. Iowa -2.5 @Purdue: I still refuse to believe in this Purdue team and their buffoon coach Danny Hope. They are coming off a nice win over Ohio State at home, but can Hope coach them up to follow up that performance with yet another strong one? I don't think so. They are unbeaten at home in the Big Ten, but they have beaten team that either can't throw(Minnesota, Ohio St) or for some reason refuse to (Illinois). Despite that, they are still ranked among the doldrums in the nation against the pass, and Iowa finally represents someone who can throw the ball. I also think the chances of Purdue sweeping their home schedule while at the same time Iowa loses it's 4th straight road game are unlikely. Iowa is due for a good road performance, as their last road game was a loss at Minnesota, and they are coming in pissed off after losing to MSU at home.
3. Minnesota +16 @Northwestern: Well, here we go again. Can Coach Fitz cover as a home favorite for the second week in a row? Minnesota has had some terrible football teams over the past few years, but they've covered in 5 out of the last 6 meetings between these two teams, and in no case has the game been decided by more than 7 points in the Cats favor. In my opinion, Minnesota is a continually improving club. Their last road trip indicated that, as they played Michigan State to a standstill on both sides of the ball. I think they'll put up enough points to hang close in this one, and although NW appears to be on a roll, they are not above puking all over themselves in a situation like this.
4. @Houston -20 v SMU: I've been a fan of SMU this year, but this is a bad spot for the Mustangs. One of my favorite players in the country, SMU RB Zach Line, has just been ruled out for the year because he needs surgery on his foot. With Line goes most of SMU's offensive danger, because their passing game has fallen far short of expectations this year. Defensively they are ok, but nobody is going to stop Case Keenum this year, especially at home, where coincidentally, their defense goes from flammable to a solid, ballhawking unit. Throw in the fact that GameDay is there this week(Did I mentioned it's a shitty week for games?) and SMU is likely to get their best shot. Looks like a beat down, something like 56-21.
5. Penn State +7 (buy it if you have to) @Ohio St: Here's a team, Ohio St, who in the last 2 weeks has lost to Purdue and played Indiana to a standstill for about 55 minutes. Everyone knows that they can't move the ball for shit, and certainly can't throw it. Despite all that, here they are at 6-4, a 7 point favorite against a, 8-2 team that will almost certainly completely shut them down. Doesn't make much sense to me. Maybe it's because the students at that school are big fans of anal rape, I don't know. I would have been on board at least with the assertion that Penn State will have just as much of a problem offensively as Ohio State will, but Purdue and Indiana converted a combined 19 for 35 on third down in the past 2 games, so maybe PSU will have a shot at doing some things. Penn State can win this game. I hope they don't, for the B10 title game's sake, but they definitely can.
6. @South Florida -1 v Miami: Statistically, this game is kind of a tossup. Miami has the better offense, but USF has the much better defense. In addition to that, USF's offense is good enough to move the ball on Miami, especially on the ground. In a game like this, the little brother always has the motivational edge, and USF will have the home field as well. USF needs this game badly, and Miami might be packing things in, as two of their best receivers have been added to the list of injured or suspended guys. I like USF here.
7. Louisiana Tech +7 @ Nevada: Nevada has dominated this series since Colin Kaepernick started taking snaps for Chris Ault and Co, but these teams have proven to be departures from the teams of recent years. LT has been a road warrior, going 4-2 including convincing wins Fresno, Utah St and Ole Miss while losing only to Mississippi St(in OT) and Southern Miss(by 2). They are solid on defense and good enough on offense to get W's. They have not been handily beaten by anyone this year, and at the same time, unless it's the dregs of the world like UNLV and New Mexico, Nevada hasn't destroyed anyone either. Statistically, it's a standstill, and LT has a big edge in special teams. I'll take the 7 points.
8. @Air Force -24 v UNLV: UNLV as a road dog is an auto play, I don't care what the spread is. They just managed to find a way to lose to New Mexico, so they certainly can find a way to get their doors blown off by a pissed off Air Force squad that's trying to get bowl eligible and needs this win to get there. It's as simple as that. Somebody named Crusoe Gongbay ran wild on them last week for crying out loud.http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/results/2011-2012/boxscore30308.html
9. Virginia +17 @Florida State: This is a role that UVA is pretty well suited for. They are solid on defense and good enough on offense to handle a big spread against almost anyone. They proved that they can handle a tough road assignment when they won at Miami. They can hang in this one. Both of these teams are 7-3, UVA is still alive for their division within the ACC, a 17 point spread in this one just has to be taken. I like Florida State, but I can see UVA being within a possession a lot easier than I can see FSU up by 24. As long as UVA doesn't get hit with a bunch of crazy turnovers, they should be in this game.
10. Colorado +11 @UCLA: I've gotta be crazy backing this collection of misfits 2 weeks in a row, right? yeah, probably, but I like the way this sets up for Colorado. They gained confidence last week with their win over Arizona, and at the same time, UCLA pissed away all the modest goodwill they built up with their mini resurgence last week when they got drilled at Utah. now all the naysayers are back in Neuheisel's kitchen, and things are mucho uncomfortable again. Colorado should be comfortable because they are once again playing a terrible defense. UCLA is among the bottom 10 in the country by anyone's measure, both against the run and against the pass. UCLA also has shown that they can play down to anyone's level, and I think that Colorado is a decent team when they have their QB, RB Stewart and WR Richardson healthy. They are also very cognizant of their current road losing streak, and want to get that thing taken care of this week. QB Hansen actually guaranteed victory. Maybe he knows something! I agree...Colorado could easily win this one, so I'll take the points.
11 @Oregon -14.5 v USC: In the past 2 years of these meetings, Oregon has rolled up 600+ yards. There is no doubt that they will be jacked up huge for this one, since it's USC, a national TV date and their last chance to impress people. All guns will be blazing. The difference between this year and previous years is that this is the best defense that Oregon has had in recent memory, strong against the run, and importantly in this case, the pass. It is still unknown if Robert Woods is going to play in this game. USC is screwed if he doesn't, but even if he does, he looks to be at less than 100%. Oregon will likely be at least in the high 40's in this one, USC is going to have to light it up to keep pace, and I don't think they will.
12. Oklahoma -16 @Baylor: Baylor can't stop a soul on defense, so Oklahoma is going to keep scoring until the scoreboard runs out of juice. Baylor will get theirs, but not nearly enough to keep pace. Oklahoma is missing some guys, namely Ryan Broyles, but that is not likely to matter as his buddies will pick up the slack for him. Sometimes Oklahoma is better off on the road in games like this, because they tend to fall asleep in Norman. They are also pretty good against the pass, so they'll force Baylor into some empty possessions. Baylor will not do such things. This is your garden variety Big 12 have vs have not blowout. 59-27.
13. @Arizona St -10.5 v Arizona: It's a rivalry game, but who cares. Arizona has packed it in a long time ago, as if the blowout loss to Colorado didn't shout that message from the rooftops. They are hideous on defense, ranked almost dead last in every meaning ful category, so ASU will score at will, unless they show up drunk or something. They are certainly capable on offense, so UA will be badly overmatched. ASU is also embarrassed for giving up a ton of yards to some no name 3rd string QB from WAZZOU, so they will be pissed off and out for blood. They can still win the Pac 12 South or whatever, so they'll be looking to hang a banner on UA. I doubt that this one will be close.
Others: Cincinnati is heading to Rutgers(+3). QB Zach Collaros broke his ankle, so he's out. Rutgers is among the top 10 defenses in the country and they are getting points at home facing a team quarterbacked by someone named Munchie Legeaux. Sounds good to me....I also like Louisville (+1) to bounce back from their loss at Pitt to beat UCONN. Louisville is good on D and UCONN couldn't score in a Bankgkok whorehouse....I've got a hunch that NC State(+8), hippie freaks that they are, will figure out a way to stay close to Clemson, who can't possibly give a shit about this week since they already wrapped up their division and have a bunch of guys banged up. I'd be skeptical of their chances even if they were motivated and healthy...BC (+24.5) seems to be a good bet to be the most recent recipient of a horseshit performance from Notre Dame, as they are due for one....Even though Tennessee if getting Tyler Bray back this week, meaning they wil have an actual offense, I think Vandy(-1.5) is better than them, and a Vandy win will further turn up the heat on Derek Doofus and his orange pants...Lastly, even though they need the game for the SEC East crown, Georgia is likely to absolutely sleepwalk through their game with Kentucky (+30). Kentucky is due to show a pulse at some point, so it might as well be this week. Georgia will probably win going away, but i would be pretty surprised if they blow out the Wildcats from the get go. That's it for this week. Take Care!!!!!!
The debate continues to rage on who LSU should play in the MNC game, assuming that Okie State stumbles. Although I bristle a little bit at the assumption that they are going to lose, I can understand it. It's just hard to believe that they'll follow through and take care of business, especially with Oklahoma staring them down Dec 3rd. I really hope they go undefeated though, because in my opinion, there really aren't any other teams worthy of facing off with LSU assuming they go undefeated. As we've mentioned, a Bama rematch is completely unfair to LSU. Oklahoma lost to one of the worst teams in the country, Texas Tech, so they should be out. Oregon is in almost the same boat as Alabama, having already lost to LSU, but I'd be more inclined to give them another shot than Bama because their game was longer ago, they had all kinds of shitty breaks, and the game was on a neutral site. Stanford is out, Boise is out. Assuming Okie St loses in a shootout, I'd almost give them the nod. At this point though, I think they are going to win that Bedlam game. The funniest thing about this whole conundrum, however, is that you can make a case that LSU has a tougher road than Alabama. Bama has Ga Southern(!!!) and an Auburn team who no longer employs an actual offense. LSU still has Arkansas and the stupid SEC Championship game in which they will play a capable Georgia team. There are some crazy scenarios if LSU loses. If they lose to Arkansas, Bama goes to Atlanta because the West becomes a 3 way tie and Bama hold the tiebreaker. If they lose to Georgia, one of Bama or LSU(probably LSU) won't even make the BCS. It's crazy. Stay tuned.
Speaking of the SEC, I see where Archie Manning, world's greatest and most respected living human, has been tabbed to chair the committe picking the new Ole Miss coach. A lot of discussion has followed saying that it almost doesn't matter who they pick because even in a best case scenario, they'll never be better than 3rd in that division, since they have no shot of passing up Bama and LSU. It might seem that way, but let's consider something. Let's pretend that Nick Saban decided to stick around at Michigan St in 1999. Does anybody remember what LSU looked like before he got there? In the ten years before Saban got there, LSU's record was 54-65. They sucked. How about Alabama before Saban got there? 67-55. Not exactly a juggernaut. Both programs had sub .500 conference records during those decade long periods. If Nick Saban decides he's had enough of the maniacal. suicidal psychopaths that cheer for his team and leaves tomorrow, they might be right back where they started. If he decided that the dump truck full of money that they desperately showered on him 5 years wasn't worth it and he stayed in the NFL, where would they be? Probably rifling through the second or third stiff that more closely resembled the other 5 stiffs they had hired since Gene Stallings. So one guy, making one decision, completely changed the power structure of the SEC for a decade. It's that easy. All that matters is the coach. If you get the right guy, you'll be good. If you don't, you'll suck, regardless of how much"tradition" your program has. Just ask Indiana basketball.
On to the week.
1. (FRIDAY) Oklahoma St -27 @ Iowa St: After much hemming and hawing, I am going to stay with the Cowboys in the road favorite role, even though it's bordering on ridiculous. Having said that, I think their defense, the most underrated defense in America, will shut down ISu and they will score as usual. You may once again see a spread covered at halftime by these maniacs. Iowa St is decent on defense, but decent against OSU gets you the wrong side of a 55 spot.
2. Iowa -2.5 @Purdue: I still refuse to believe in this Purdue team and their buffoon coach Danny Hope. They are coming off a nice win over Ohio State at home, but can Hope coach them up to follow up that performance with yet another strong one? I don't think so. They are unbeaten at home in the Big Ten, but they have beaten team that either can't throw(Minnesota, Ohio St) or for some reason refuse to (Illinois). Despite that, they are still ranked among the doldrums in the nation against the pass, and Iowa finally represents someone who can throw the ball. I also think the chances of Purdue sweeping their home schedule while at the same time Iowa loses it's 4th straight road game are unlikely. Iowa is due for a good road performance, as their last road game was a loss at Minnesota, and they are coming in pissed off after losing to MSU at home.
3. Minnesota +16 @Northwestern: Well, here we go again. Can Coach Fitz cover as a home favorite for the second week in a row? Minnesota has had some terrible football teams over the past few years, but they've covered in 5 out of the last 6 meetings between these two teams, and in no case has the game been decided by more than 7 points in the Cats favor. In my opinion, Minnesota is a continually improving club. Their last road trip indicated that, as they played Michigan State to a standstill on both sides of the ball. I think they'll put up enough points to hang close in this one, and although NW appears to be on a roll, they are not above puking all over themselves in a situation like this.
4. @Houston -20 v SMU: I've been a fan of SMU this year, but this is a bad spot for the Mustangs. One of my favorite players in the country, SMU RB Zach Line, has just been ruled out for the year because he needs surgery on his foot. With Line goes most of SMU's offensive danger, because their passing game has fallen far short of expectations this year. Defensively they are ok, but nobody is going to stop Case Keenum this year, especially at home, where coincidentally, their defense goes from flammable to a solid, ballhawking unit. Throw in the fact that GameDay is there this week(Did I mentioned it's a shitty week for games?) and SMU is likely to get their best shot. Looks like a beat down, something like 56-21.
5. Penn State +7 (buy it if you have to) @Ohio St: Here's a team, Ohio St, who in the last 2 weeks has lost to Purdue and played Indiana to a standstill for about 55 minutes. Everyone knows that they can't move the ball for shit, and certainly can't throw it. Despite all that, here they are at 6-4, a 7 point favorite against a, 8-2 team that will almost certainly completely shut them down. Doesn't make much sense to me. Maybe it's because the students at that school are big fans of anal rape, I don't know. I would have been on board at least with the assertion that Penn State will have just as much of a problem offensively as Ohio State will, but Purdue and Indiana converted a combined 19 for 35 on third down in the past 2 games, so maybe PSU will have a shot at doing some things. Penn State can win this game. I hope they don't, for the B10 title game's sake, but they definitely can.
6. @South Florida -1 v Miami: Statistically, this game is kind of a tossup. Miami has the better offense, but USF has the much better defense. In addition to that, USF's offense is good enough to move the ball on Miami, especially on the ground. In a game like this, the little brother always has the motivational edge, and USF will have the home field as well. USF needs this game badly, and Miami might be packing things in, as two of their best receivers have been added to the list of injured or suspended guys. I like USF here.
7. Louisiana Tech +7 @ Nevada: Nevada has dominated this series since Colin Kaepernick started taking snaps for Chris Ault and Co, but these teams have proven to be departures from the teams of recent years. LT has been a road warrior, going 4-2 including convincing wins Fresno, Utah St and Ole Miss while losing only to Mississippi St(in OT) and Southern Miss(by 2). They are solid on defense and good enough on offense to get W's. They have not been handily beaten by anyone this year, and at the same time, unless it's the dregs of the world like UNLV and New Mexico, Nevada hasn't destroyed anyone either. Statistically, it's a standstill, and LT has a big edge in special teams. I'll take the 7 points.
8. @Air Force -24 v UNLV: UNLV as a road dog is an auto play, I don't care what the spread is. They just managed to find a way to lose to New Mexico, so they certainly can find a way to get their doors blown off by a pissed off Air Force squad that's trying to get bowl eligible and needs this win to get there. It's as simple as that. Somebody named Crusoe Gongbay ran wild on them last week for crying out loud.http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/results/2011-2012/boxscore30308.html
9. Virginia +17 @Florida State: This is a role that UVA is pretty well suited for. They are solid on defense and good enough on offense to handle a big spread against almost anyone. They proved that they can handle a tough road assignment when they won at Miami. They can hang in this one. Both of these teams are 7-3, UVA is still alive for their division within the ACC, a 17 point spread in this one just has to be taken. I like Florida State, but I can see UVA being within a possession a lot easier than I can see FSU up by 24. As long as UVA doesn't get hit with a bunch of crazy turnovers, they should be in this game.
10. Colorado +11 @UCLA: I've gotta be crazy backing this collection of misfits 2 weeks in a row, right? yeah, probably, but I like the way this sets up for Colorado. They gained confidence last week with their win over Arizona, and at the same time, UCLA pissed away all the modest goodwill they built up with their mini resurgence last week when they got drilled at Utah. now all the naysayers are back in Neuheisel's kitchen, and things are mucho uncomfortable again. Colorado should be comfortable because they are once again playing a terrible defense. UCLA is among the bottom 10 in the country by anyone's measure, both against the run and against the pass. UCLA also has shown that they can play down to anyone's level, and I think that Colorado is a decent team when they have their QB, RB Stewart and WR Richardson healthy. They are also very cognizant of their current road losing streak, and want to get that thing taken care of this week. QB Hansen actually guaranteed victory. Maybe he knows something! I agree...Colorado could easily win this one, so I'll take the points.
11 @Oregon -14.5 v USC: In the past 2 years of these meetings, Oregon has rolled up 600+ yards. There is no doubt that they will be jacked up huge for this one, since it's USC, a national TV date and their last chance to impress people. All guns will be blazing. The difference between this year and previous years is that this is the best defense that Oregon has had in recent memory, strong against the run, and importantly in this case, the pass. It is still unknown if Robert Woods is going to play in this game. USC is screwed if he doesn't, but even if he does, he looks to be at less than 100%. Oregon will likely be at least in the high 40's in this one, USC is going to have to light it up to keep pace, and I don't think they will.
12. Oklahoma -16 @Baylor: Baylor can't stop a soul on defense, so Oklahoma is going to keep scoring until the scoreboard runs out of juice. Baylor will get theirs, but not nearly enough to keep pace. Oklahoma is missing some guys, namely Ryan Broyles, but that is not likely to matter as his buddies will pick up the slack for him. Sometimes Oklahoma is better off on the road in games like this, because they tend to fall asleep in Norman. They are also pretty good against the pass, so they'll force Baylor into some empty possessions. Baylor will not do such things. This is your garden variety Big 12 have vs have not blowout. 59-27.
13. @Arizona St -10.5 v Arizona: It's a rivalry game, but who cares. Arizona has packed it in a long time ago, as if the blowout loss to Colorado didn't shout that message from the rooftops. They are hideous on defense, ranked almost dead last in every meaning ful category, so ASU will score at will, unless they show up drunk or something. They are certainly capable on offense, so UA will be badly overmatched. ASU is also embarrassed for giving up a ton of yards to some no name 3rd string QB from WAZZOU, so they will be pissed off and out for blood. They can still win the Pac 12 South or whatever, so they'll be looking to hang a banner on UA. I doubt that this one will be close.
Others: Cincinnati is heading to Rutgers(+3). QB Zach Collaros broke his ankle, so he's out. Rutgers is among the top 10 defenses in the country and they are getting points at home facing a team quarterbacked by someone named Munchie Legeaux. Sounds good to me....I also like Louisville (+1) to bounce back from their loss at Pitt to beat UCONN. Louisville is good on D and UCONN couldn't score in a Bankgkok whorehouse....I've got a hunch that NC State(+8), hippie freaks that they are, will figure out a way to stay close to Clemson, who can't possibly give a shit about this week since they already wrapped up their division and have a bunch of guys banged up. I'd be skeptical of their chances even if they were motivated and healthy...BC (+24.5) seems to be a good bet to be the most recent recipient of a horseshit performance from Notre Dame, as they are due for one....Even though Tennessee if getting Tyler Bray back this week, meaning they wil have an actual offense, I think Vandy(-1.5) is better than them, and a Vandy win will further turn up the heat on Derek Doofus and his orange pants...Lastly, even though they need the game for the SEC East crown, Georgia is likely to absolutely sleepwalk through their game with Kentucky (+30). Kentucky is due to show a pulse at some point, so it might as well be this week. Georgia will probably win going away, but i would be pretty surprised if they blow out the Wildcats from the get go. That's it for this week. Take Care!!!!!!
Friday, November 11, 2011
Week 11 Musings
A decent week last week, 8-5, so we get back to being right up there with a coin flip. 66-66-2. The "hope" is that we'll get a positive week this week to get back over .500. Haven't had a great week at all this year. Maybe this will be the week. Probably not.
Lots of goings on in the college football world this past week. First of all, we have the aftermath of the Bama/LSU game from last weekend. A couple things on that: You will not hear any more serious criticisms of Les Miles on these pages. maybe a hardy har here and there about some funny thing he said, but nothing that questions his coaching acumen. He has stared down Nick Saban two years in a row now and left the Great Saban as a quivering pile of jell-o. Hard to believe, but it happened, and I will heretofore take heed Coach Miles's coaching acumen. Second: Alabama is out of the MNC race. Sorry...you lost at home. You don't get a second crack at LSU. This reminds me of the dilemma we all had in '06 when Michigan and Ohio St were being discussed as candidates for a rematch in the MNC game. We all know how that turned out. Let's not make the mistake of considering that again, and rendering the game just played as meaningless. I'll be hoping that Stanford or Oklahoma St goes undefeated so we don't have to worry about it. Having said all that, I have seen some comments from LSU players and even Miles after the game that they wouldn't mind playing Bama again. My primary objection to keeping Bama out would be to avoid being unfair to LSU, but if LSU says "bring on the rematch", and they don't mind that they are getting screwed in the process, then so be it. Not at the expense of any undefeated teams though. This would be the point that I mention an undefeated Boise as a deserving participant, but that will never happen, so I'll not waste any further keystrokes going into it.
One other story from this week was that little incident that happened in State College. Not a big deal, only the most sickening scandal and most egregious behavior in college sports history. If you haven't read the Grand Jury presentation, you're all big boys, you should. http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/uploadedFiles/Press/Sandusky-Grand-Jury-Presentment.pdf. Obviously, I don't know all the specifics that happened in this episode, what joe paterno knew, or chose to pretend he didn't know, but I know this: I used to love the guy. Now I think he's no different than any other self serving, crony protecting scumbag. And I think he certainly could have prevented countless numbers of children being sexually assaulted. I think he knew he had a pedophile on his hands, and he did nothing about it. For 9 years. We know of 9 victims of this animal Sandusky. I've heard the number is growing, as more victims gain the courage to come forward. There are probably at least dozens more, as the presentation indicates that Sandusky had only one purpose in life, and that was to assault as many young boys as possible. So in my opinion, Joe Paterno needs to go and drop dead. Just shuffle off to the old folks home, drool all over yourself and just drop dead. We'll all be better for it. I won't say he should be sent to jail, because he's such an old, decrepit reptile that he'd probably break his hip and catch pneumonia as soon as he got the news that he'd soon be resigned to fate that Sandusky's victims were. So there's no point. Just drop dead.
Paterno obviously knew that Sandusky was a pedophile. He knew about an incident in 1998, when Sandusky was still DC, where he apparently made an advance on a boy in the a Penn State locker room shower. Nothing happened because the kid immediately split, then told his Mom, who reported it to the police. Nothing came of the investigation, but you can be sure Paterno knew about it, and probably more than that because Sandusky "retired" in 1999, at the ripe old age of 55. For comparisons sake, Nick Saban is 60. Les Miles is 58. Pete Carroll is 60. In coaching lifetimes, 55 is your prime. Jerry Sandusky was a legendary coach. He was the architect of 2 National Champion defenses, and is widely credited for what might be the best game plan ever, he scheme to beat Miami in the 1987 MNC game. He was certainly no incompetent. He was the finalist for the Maryland head coaching job the year before, so he certainly had aspirations to keep going. So why did he abruptly retire in 1999? It's been reported he "negotiated" a bunch of perks that he would get during his retirement, access to the facilities, a listing in the faculty directory, etc. Who negotiates perks when the are voluntarily resigning? He was forced out, probably because he represented too much of a risk, because his addiction to boys was so strong, and it was only inevitable that he would be caught and bring embarrassment to the coaching staff. Get the guy out of here and let him molest kids on his own time. I won't even get into what happened in 2002, and how Paterno could know about that incident and do nothing, or how Sandusky could be allowed to be working out at the football facilities even LAST WEEK, when everyone had already testified before the grand jury and likely were aware of all the charges against him. Or how Mike McQueary, after witnessing Sandusky anally raping a 10 year old boy, could possibly coexist with the man for 9 YEARS in the same facility. There's more to come, I'm sure of it, and the more we learn, the worse it's going to get. Oh and by the way...it's nice to know that PSU students are so vehemently behind Paterno that they were willing to riot about it, or at least that's the reason they want us to believe. If that's their position, you can only come to 2 conclusions. Either they have no clue what the facts are in this case and they haven't read the grand jury presentation, or they love the idea of young boys being anally raped. One or the other.
OK!!! Back to football!!
1. Oklahoma St -18 @Texas Tech: At this point, I know it seems silly, but I refuse to go against Oklahoma St in this role. They just keep covering as a road favorite. Texas Tech is 111th against the run. They are 90th against the pass, and this is against a schedule that hasn't included Baylor, or OSU or Missouri yet. Iowa St gashed them. Kansas gashed them. Texas gashed them. None of these teams can match OSU as an offensive machine. OSU is going to put up 55, maybe 60 in this one. Will Tech score 38?? Well, maybe, but I would doubt it, because OSU's problem has been stopping the run, and Tech can't run it. OSU actually has been very good against the pass, and Tech has made a habit of running up tons of yards and having limited points to show for it. Kind of like Baylor a few weeks ago. I'm going to predict a 52-24 game, and that's probably close to a best case scenario for Tech.
2. @Penn State +3.5 v Nebraska: I should probably have my head examined for even considering this game, but assuming the players are focused, I think there's a lot of value in this one. There should be no effect on the players that Paterno isn't there...he hasn't been there for about 10 years in human form. That old stammering, drooling carcass sitting up in the pressbox certainly didn't have any effect on the games, so we can only assume that things will move on as they have been. I have not seen much evidence from Nebraska that they can move the ball on the road against a good defense, let alone this defense, which is certainly among the elite in the nation this year. Also, although Penn State's laughable attempts to throw the ball indicate that they can't throw their way out of a wet paper sack, they can run it a little, and Nebraska has not been stout in this area, ranked 68th in the country. In my opinion, Nebraska is a pretty good matchup for Penn State, and PSU will certainly be ready to go, as the sight of Nebraska gets the juices flowing. Who knows what effect the events of the week will have on these kids, but it's too good of a value to pass up, since the wrong team is favored in my opinion.
3. Ohio State -7.5 @Purdue: The last time PSU came in here, they lost, so I expect that Purdue will get their full attention, especially after the way they played last week. Purdue is ranked 88th against the run, so I expect OSU to run at will on them. Also, OSU should have no problem stopping Purdue's pedestrian attack, as their defense will have a renewed vigor after their performance last week. I like OSU in a bit of a laugher here.
4. Michigan St -2.5 @Iowa: Big. big risk going against Iowa, since they are such a good home team historically, but I think this is a bad matchup for them. They have given up huge passing yards to teams that are not good passing teams, i.e, Minnesota, Iowa St, Pitt, etc. Now they face Kirk Cousins, who I think is overrated but is certainly as good or better than some of these other clowns that have lit up Iowa. Offensively, Iowa is going to face what is probably the best defense they've seen, except for maybe Penn State, who held them to 3 points. MSU is also a blitzing team, and James Vandenberg has fared well only against rope a dope type defenses. The spot is also not good, as they are coming off the good performance against Michigan and MSU is looking to right the ship after a couple of poor performances the past 2 weeks. MSU would be in the driver's seat with a win, I think they'll being their A game in this one.
5. Rice +17 @Northwestern: Northwestern is 5-21 as a home favorite under Pat Fitzgerald. They are in a bad spot coming off a great win at Nebraska, who couldn't throw the ball well enough to exploit their glaring weakness, which is pass defense. I don't know if Rice completely fits the bill as a good passing team, but they've had some success on offense this year. Last week is a good example, when they rolled up 671 total yards and 400+ through the air on a not terrible UTEP defense. I like the Cats for the rest of the year, and their offense is for real, but I don't like this spot for them.
6. @Boston College +3 v NCState is a terrible road team usually. They are coming off an unfathomable game in which they shut out North Carolina. Now they go on the road to face a BC team that just had it's worst game in decades and is now waiting to face the coach that ditched them for NC State. I think the Wolfpack will get their best shot. I don't think Nc State can cover a close road spread against anyone, as they are a bunch of pansies. They are 4-12 in their last 16 in this role, and the last time they came to Boston, the spread was close(+2) and they lost 52-20. This is a fade of Nc State, who will be free to attend Occupy Boston as soon as the ink is dry on the game story.
7. Wyoming +17 @Air Force: I would buy the half point to 17. Historically, the games in this series have been pretty close, and this year Wyoming(5-3) actually has bowl aspirations to play for. They've already beaten San Diego State on the road, who beat Air Force in Colorado Springs. As you know, I am not a proponent of the transitive property, but it certainly indicates that Wyoming belongs on the field in this game. In order to cover a spread like this, Air Force is going to have to score a shitload of points, because their defense has been terrible, 109th against the run and 92nd against the pass. Unfortunately, Wyoming is worse in both categories, but they have done well against Air Force's attack in recent years and tend to get pounded by bigger, more physical teams. It's a good matchup for Wyoming, who by the numbers should be able to move the ball very effectively in this game. I'll certainly take 17 here, and wouldn't be stunned at an outright win.
8. @Colorado +10 v Arizona: Both of these teams, and defenses are terrible, but I can't get past the line value here. Good Lord, I can't believe I am on these pathetic losers again, but how can Arizona, at 2-7 be a double digit road favorite? If they were playing the Colorado team that Oregon played, with no Paul Richardson, no Tyler Hansen and no Rodney Stewart, I can see it, but all those guys are back, and Colorado has to look at this game as their last chance to get a victory and get something positive under their belt in the new coach's first season. Tyler Hansen has a 16/6 ratio, has some good receivers and a pretty good collection of talent around him. This really should be a close spread, not a double digit number.This game will be ugly, but it should be close, and I think a Colorado outright win is just as likely as them getting blown out. (man...Colorado, Wyoming, BC, Rice, Penn State..not a murderers row of good teams there..luckily their opponents aren't much better.)
9. @Georgia -12 v Auburn: Georgia has the big advantage in motivation in this one, now that they have a clear path to the SEC East, and they still remember last year, when there was a near brawl at the end of their game with Auburn due to some dirty play. Georgia has quietly piled up some nice statistics this year...they are solid on both sides of the ball and are very balanced on offense. Auburn is still using Clint Moseley at QB, and although he performed ok vs ole Miss, he'll be facing a much better defense here, and will probably prove that he is "not the answer" at Qb for Auburn. We all know that Georgia will score on Auburn's leaky faucet defense...Moseley will have to engineer some points himself to keep up, and I don't think it happens. Public is all over Auburn as well.
10. @Florida State -9 v Miami: I think things are coming together for FSU. They are coming off some dominating defensive performances, and their offense has a total offense ranking that has reached 20 in the country. Miami continues to struggle on defense, ranked 93rd overall and 96th against the pass. Miami has been good on offense, but is still turnover prone, and due for a poor performance again. I think they are what we saw in that Thursday nighter against Virginia. FSU is on a roll, and I don't think Miami can score enough to keep up with FSU as long as that defense is motivated. Some key players for Miami got suspended this week also.
11. Washington +11.5 @USC: Since Sarkisian has been at Washington, the Dawgs have won and covered easily in his games against USC. Last year was an outright win as a 10 point dog at USC, the year before that they won outright as a 24 point dog. This year they are getting 11.5 again, and I really can't see the reasoning behind it. Both teams have strong offenses which will have clear edges against the respective defenses. This year however. Washington is playing for another bowl, while USC is playing out the string. Based on the success Sarkisian has had in this series so far, and on the strength of their offense, I think they will be in this one till the end.
12 @Arkansas -14 v Tennessee: This is a square public play, but I can't see how Tennessee is justifiable as only a 2TD dog here. Arkansas could possibly have that spread covered after 2 possessions. You'll probably have to buy this down from 14.5 by the time you get this, but I would go up to 17 on this one. Tennessee simply is not a good football team. They don't do anything even relatively well now that Tyler Bray is no longer playing QB. They can't run(116th), they can't pass, as they are on their 3rd QB. They don't stop the run very well, and they give up a lot of passing yards. Their coach is a buffoon who is woefully overmatched(especially by Petrino). Not a pretty picture. Their only chance is if Arkansas comes out asleep, which is a possibility given their big win last week against South Carolina. This should be a 38-14 type game.
13. @Stanford -3.5 v Oregon: This should be a great game, but I think in the end, the irresistible force that is Stanford will once again win out. Oregon has a tendency to play quite a bit worse on the road than they do at home, and this was the case the last time these two teed it up in Palo Alto. Stanford won that one 51-42 as a 6 point dog, and I think they'll have the upper hand in this one. Oregon has struggled stopping the run this year, and that's having played against a bunch of teams that don't really run it well. Stanford will be the best offense they have faced by far since LSU, and on the road, I think it will be a profound difference. Of course, Stanford will be facing their best offense as well, but their strength is stopping the run. We've also seen some shaky play rcently from Darron Thomas. I think Stanford will have a big edge in the defenses as well as the QB.
Others: It's a lot of points, but I think Clemson(-16.5) might beat the crap out of Wake. They've destroyed them the past 2 times they've played in Death Valley with much weaker teams, and Wake looks to have come back to earth. If it was around 14 it would have been a musing....Virginia is only laying 10 against Duke. They should be able to handle that rather easily based on the personnel, but Duke is a good road dog and I don't trust UVA to handle their business 3 weeks in a row...Normally I'm on the other side of this, but I think Rutgers(-7) should handle Army at Yankee Stadium. The things that give Rutgers trouble are not in play this week, and they have been very stout on defense. Mohammed Sanu will be the best player ont he field by far, he might be worth 7 points by himself....SMU (-8.5) should have absolutely no problem raining points on Navy, but Navy is such a good road dog and SMU such a terrible home favorite(1-8-1 under Jones) that I can't fully recommend it. I will be betting on SMU though. despite the contrary trends....For some crazy reason, I think Minnesota(+27) is going to give Wisconsin a game. They played Michigan State to a standstill last week.....Don't look now, but UCLA has a great shot of winning the Pac 12 South if they can get a win at Utah. Good matchups on both sides of the ball here...solid O for UCLA and D for Utah and terrible O for Utah and D for UCLA. End result is a standoff, so 7 points and UCLA probably has some value....That's it for now. Have a great week!!
Lots of goings on in the college football world this past week. First of all, we have the aftermath of the Bama/LSU game from last weekend. A couple things on that: You will not hear any more serious criticisms of Les Miles on these pages. maybe a hardy har here and there about some funny thing he said, but nothing that questions his coaching acumen. He has stared down Nick Saban two years in a row now and left the Great Saban as a quivering pile of jell-o. Hard to believe, but it happened, and I will heretofore take heed Coach Miles's coaching acumen. Second: Alabama is out of the MNC race. Sorry...you lost at home. You don't get a second crack at LSU. This reminds me of the dilemma we all had in '06 when Michigan and Ohio St were being discussed as candidates for a rematch in the MNC game. We all know how that turned out. Let's not make the mistake of considering that again, and rendering the game just played as meaningless. I'll be hoping that Stanford or Oklahoma St goes undefeated so we don't have to worry about it. Having said all that, I have seen some comments from LSU players and even Miles after the game that they wouldn't mind playing Bama again. My primary objection to keeping Bama out would be to avoid being unfair to LSU, but if LSU says "bring on the rematch", and they don't mind that they are getting screwed in the process, then so be it. Not at the expense of any undefeated teams though. This would be the point that I mention an undefeated Boise as a deserving participant, but that will never happen, so I'll not waste any further keystrokes going into it.
One other story from this week was that little incident that happened in State College. Not a big deal, only the most sickening scandal and most egregious behavior in college sports history. If you haven't read the Grand Jury presentation, you're all big boys, you should. http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/uploadedFiles/Press/Sandusky-Grand-Jury-Presentment.pdf. Obviously, I don't know all the specifics that happened in this episode, what joe paterno knew, or chose to pretend he didn't know, but I know this: I used to love the guy. Now I think he's no different than any other self serving, crony protecting scumbag. And I think he certainly could have prevented countless numbers of children being sexually assaulted. I think he knew he had a pedophile on his hands, and he did nothing about it. For 9 years. We know of 9 victims of this animal Sandusky. I've heard the number is growing, as more victims gain the courage to come forward. There are probably at least dozens more, as the presentation indicates that Sandusky had only one purpose in life, and that was to assault as many young boys as possible. So in my opinion, Joe Paterno needs to go and drop dead. Just shuffle off to the old folks home, drool all over yourself and just drop dead. We'll all be better for it. I won't say he should be sent to jail, because he's such an old, decrepit reptile that he'd probably break his hip and catch pneumonia as soon as he got the news that he'd soon be resigned to fate that Sandusky's victims were. So there's no point. Just drop dead.
Paterno obviously knew that Sandusky was a pedophile. He knew about an incident in 1998, when Sandusky was still DC, where he apparently made an advance on a boy in the a Penn State locker room shower. Nothing happened because the kid immediately split, then told his Mom, who reported it to the police. Nothing came of the investigation, but you can be sure Paterno knew about it, and probably more than that because Sandusky "retired" in 1999, at the ripe old age of 55. For comparisons sake, Nick Saban is 60. Les Miles is 58. Pete Carroll is 60. In coaching lifetimes, 55 is your prime. Jerry Sandusky was a legendary coach. He was the architect of 2 National Champion defenses, and is widely credited for what might be the best game plan ever, he scheme to beat Miami in the 1987 MNC game. He was certainly no incompetent. He was the finalist for the Maryland head coaching job the year before, so he certainly had aspirations to keep going. So why did he abruptly retire in 1999? It's been reported he "negotiated" a bunch of perks that he would get during his retirement, access to the facilities, a listing in the faculty directory, etc. Who negotiates perks when the are voluntarily resigning? He was forced out, probably because he represented too much of a risk, because his addiction to boys was so strong, and it was only inevitable that he would be caught and bring embarrassment to the coaching staff. Get the guy out of here and let him molest kids on his own time. I won't even get into what happened in 2002, and how Paterno could know about that incident and do nothing, or how Sandusky could be allowed to be working out at the football facilities even LAST WEEK, when everyone had already testified before the grand jury and likely were aware of all the charges against him. Or how Mike McQueary, after witnessing Sandusky anally raping a 10 year old boy, could possibly coexist with the man for 9 YEARS in the same facility. There's more to come, I'm sure of it, and the more we learn, the worse it's going to get. Oh and by the way...it's nice to know that PSU students are so vehemently behind Paterno that they were willing to riot about it, or at least that's the reason they want us to believe. If that's their position, you can only come to 2 conclusions. Either they have no clue what the facts are in this case and they haven't read the grand jury presentation, or they love the idea of young boys being anally raped. One or the other.
OK!!! Back to football!!
1. Oklahoma St -18 @Texas Tech: At this point, I know it seems silly, but I refuse to go against Oklahoma St in this role. They just keep covering as a road favorite. Texas Tech is 111th against the run. They are 90th against the pass, and this is against a schedule that hasn't included Baylor, or OSU or Missouri yet. Iowa St gashed them. Kansas gashed them. Texas gashed them. None of these teams can match OSU as an offensive machine. OSU is going to put up 55, maybe 60 in this one. Will Tech score 38?? Well, maybe, but I would doubt it, because OSU's problem has been stopping the run, and Tech can't run it. OSU actually has been very good against the pass, and Tech has made a habit of running up tons of yards and having limited points to show for it. Kind of like Baylor a few weeks ago. I'm going to predict a 52-24 game, and that's probably close to a best case scenario for Tech.
2. @Penn State +3.5 v Nebraska: I should probably have my head examined for even considering this game, but assuming the players are focused, I think there's a lot of value in this one. There should be no effect on the players that Paterno isn't there...he hasn't been there for about 10 years in human form. That old stammering, drooling carcass sitting up in the pressbox certainly didn't have any effect on the games, so we can only assume that things will move on as they have been. I have not seen much evidence from Nebraska that they can move the ball on the road against a good defense, let alone this defense, which is certainly among the elite in the nation this year. Also, although Penn State's laughable attempts to throw the ball indicate that they can't throw their way out of a wet paper sack, they can run it a little, and Nebraska has not been stout in this area, ranked 68th in the country. In my opinion, Nebraska is a pretty good matchup for Penn State, and PSU will certainly be ready to go, as the sight of Nebraska gets the juices flowing. Who knows what effect the events of the week will have on these kids, but it's too good of a value to pass up, since the wrong team is favored in my opinion.
3. Ohio State -7.5 @Purdue: The last time PSU came in here, they lost, so I expect that Purdue will get their full attention, especially after the way they played last week. Purdue is ranked 88th against the run, so I expect OSU to run at will on them. Also, OSU should have no problem stopping Purdue's pedestrian attack, as their defense will have a renewed vigor after their performance last week. I like OSU in a bit of a laugher here.
4. Michigan St -2.5 @Iowa: Big. big risk going against Iowa, since they are such a good home team historically, but I think this is a bad matchup for them. They have given up huge passing yards to teams that are not good passing teams, i.e, Minnesota, Iowa St, Pitt, etc. Now they face Kirk Cousins, who I think is overrated but is certainly as good or better than some of these other clowns that have lit up Iowa. Offensively, Iowa is going to face what is probably the best defense they've seen, except for maybe Penn State, who held them to 3 points. MSU is also a blitzing team, and James Vandenberg has fared well only against rope a dope type defenses. The spot is also not good, as they are coming off the good performance against Michigan and MSU is looking to right the ship after a couple of poor performances the past 2 weeks. MSU would be in the driver's seat with a win, I think they'll being their A game in this one.
5. Rice +17 @Northwestern: Northwestern is 5-21 as a home favorite under Pat Fitzgerald. They are in a bad spot coming off a great win at Nebraska, who couldn't throw the ball well enough to exploit their glaring weakness, which is pass defense. I don't know if Rice completely fits the bill as a good passing team, but they've had some success on offense this year. Last week is a good example, when they rolled up 671 total yards and 400+ through the air on a not terrible UTEP defense. I like the Cats for the rest of the year, and their offense is for real, but I don't like this spot for them.
6. @Boston College +3 v NCState is a terrible road team usually. They are coming off an unfathomable game in which they shut out North Carolina. Now they go on the road to face a BC team that just had it's worst game in decades and is now waiting to face the coach that ditched them for NC State. I think the Wolfpack will get their best shot. I don't think Nc State can cover a close road spread against anyone, as they are a bunch of pansies. They are 4-12 in their last 16 in this role, and the last time they came to Boston, the spread was close(+2) and they lost 52-20. This is a fade of Nc State, who will be free to attend Occupy Boston as soon as the ink is dry on the game story.
7. Wyoming +17 @Air Force: I would buy the half point to 17. Historically, the games in this series have been pretty close, and this year Wyoming(5-3) actually has bowl aspirations to play for. They've already beaten San Diego State on the road, who beat Air Force in Colorado Springs. As you know, I am not a proponent of the transitive property, but it certainly indicates that Wyoming belongs on the field in this game. In order to cover a spread like this, Air Force is going to have to score a shitload of points, because their defense has been terrible, 109th against the run and 92nd against the pass. Unfortunately, Wyoming is worse in both categories, but they have done well against Air Force's attack in recent years and tend to get pounded by bigger, more physical teams. It's a good matchup for Wyoming, who by the numbers should be able to move the ball very effectively in this game. I'll certainly take 17 here, and wouldn't be stunned at an outright win.
8. @Colorado +10 v Arizona: Both of these teams, and defenses are terrible, but I can't get past the line value here. Good Lord, I can't believe I am on these pathetic losers again, but how can Arizona, at 2-7 be a double digit road favorite? If they were playing the Colorado team that Oregon played, with no Paul Richardson, no Tyler Hansen and no Rodney Stewart, I can see it, but all those guys are back, and Colorado has to look at this game as their last chance to get a victory and get something positive under their belt in the new coach's first season. Tyler Hansen has a 16/6 ratio, has some good receivers and a pretty good collection of talent around him. This really should be a close spread, not a double digit number.This game will be ugly, but it should be close, and I think a Colorado outright win is just as likely as them getting blown out. (man...Colorado, Wyoming, BC, Rice, Penn State..not a murderers row of good teams there..luckily their opponents aren't much better.)
9. @Georgia -12 v Auburn: Georgia has the big advantage in motivation in this one, now that they have a clear path to the SEC East, and they still remember last year, when there was a near brawl at the end of their game with Auburn due to some dirty play. Georgia has quietly piled up some nice statistics this year...they are solid on both sides of the ball and are very balanced on offense. Auburn is still using Clint Moseley at QB, and although he performed ok vs ole Miss, he'll be facing a much better defense here, and will probably prove that he is "not the answer" at Qb for Auburn. We all know that Georgia will score on Auburn's leaky faucet defense...Moseley will have to engineer some points himself to keep up, and I don't think it happens. Public is all over Auburn as well.
10. @Florida State -9 v Miami: I think things are coming together for FSU. They are coming off some dominating defensive performances, and their offense has a total offense ranking that has reached 20 in the country. Miami continues to struggle on defense, ranked 93rd overall and 96th against the pass. Miami has been good on offense, but is still turnover prone, and due for a poor performance again. I think they are what we saw in that Thursday nighter against Virginia. FSU is on a roll, and I don't think Miami can score enough to keep up with FSU as long as that defense is motivated. Some key players for Miami got suspended this week also.
11. Washington +11.5 @USC: Since Sarkisian has been at Washington, the Dawgs have won and covered easily in his games against USC. Last year was an outright win as a 10 point dog at USC, the year before that they won outright as a 24 point dog. This year they are getting 11.5 again, and I really can't see the reasoning behind it. Both teams have strong offenses which will have clear edges against the respective defenses. This year however. Washington is playing for another bowl, while USC is playing out the string. Based on the success Sarkisian has had in this series so far, and on the strength of their offense, I think they will be in this one till the end.
12 @Arkansas -14 v Tennessee: This is a square public play, but I can't see how Tennessee is justifiable as only a 2TD dog here. Arkansas could possibly have that spread covered after 2 possessions. You'll probably have to buy this down from 14.5 by the time you get this, but I would go up to 17 on this one. Tennessee simply is not a good football team. They don't do anything even relatively well now that Tyler Bray is no longer playing QB. They can't run(116th), they can't pass, as they are on their 3rd QB. They don't stop the run very well, and they give up a lot of passing yards. Their coach is a buffoon who is woefully overmatched(especially by Petrino). Not a pretty picture. Their only chance is if Arkansas comes out asleep, which is a possibility given their big win last week against South Carolina. This should be a 38-14 type game.
13. @Stanford -3.5 v Oregon: This should be a great game, but I think in the end, the irresistible force that is Stanford will once again win out. Oregon has a tendency to play quite a bit worse on the road than they do at home, and this was the case the last time these two teed it up in Palo Alto. Stanford won that one 51-42 as a 6 point dog, and I think they'll have the upper hand in this one. Oregon has struggled stopping the run this year, and that's having played against a bunch of teams that don't really run it well. Stanford will be the best offense they have faced by far since LSU, and on the road, I think it will be a profound difference. Of course, Stanford will be facing their best offense as well, but their strength is stopping the run. We've also seen some shaky play rcently from Darron Thomas. I think Stanford will have a big edge in the defenses as well as the QB.
Others: It's a lot of points, but I think Clemson(-16.5) might beat the crap out of Wake. They've destroyed them the past 2 times they've played in Death Valley with much weaker teams, and Wake looks to have come back to earth. If it was around 14 it would have been a musing....Virginia is only laying 10 against Duke. They should be able to handle that rather easily based on the personnel, but Duke is a good road dog and I don't trust UVA to handle their business 3 weeks in a row...Normally I'm on the other side of this, but I think Rutgers(-7) should handle Army at Yankee Stadium. The things that give Rutgers trouble are not in play this week, and they have been very stout on defense. Mohammed Sanu will be the best player ont he field by far, he might be worth 7 points by himself....SMU (-8.5) should have absolutely no problem raining points on Navy, but Navy is such a good road dog and SMU such a terrible home favorite(1-8-1 under Jones) that I can't fully recommend it. I will be betting on SMU though. despite the contrary trends....For some crazy reason, I think Minnesota(+27) is going to give Wisconsin a game. They played Michigan State to a standstill last week.....Don't look now, but UCLA has a great shot of winning the Pac 12 South if they can get a win at Utah. Good matchups on both sides of the ball here...solid O for UCLA and D for Utah and terrible O for Utah and D for UCLA. End result is a standoff, so 7 points and UCLA probably has some value....That's it for now. Have a great week!!
Saturday, November 5, 2011
Week 10 Musings cont'd
I should probably quit whilst I'm ahead, much like I should have last week, but we all know that is not going to happen. Florida State made pretty short work of BC, who is just a putrid outfit. Hopefully, we won't see a repeat of last week, when we had a 2-0 start and then proceeded to go 3-8 on Saturday to finish the week at 5-8. 58-61-2 for the year...work is needed to get back to .500 this week.
One thing that I found funny was the spectacular way in which my teams failed last week. A good example of this is 2 of the noon games from last week. I knew going in that putting my trust in the Indiana defense and the Nc State offense were a couple of risky propositions. However, I didn't need these outfits to dominate, or even play well. For Nc State, to cover 19.5 points, I figured I needed 10 lousy points. They got shut out. In Indiana's case, I needed them merely to make Northwestern punt a couple times and hold them under around 45 points. They gave up points and yards at an exhilerating pace...NW had 440 yards at the half. A big fat middle finger goes out to those two cowardly units.
I read this week that Boise State is considering bolting the Mountain West for the Big East. I'm hoping that someone can explain to me why in the world Boise would have any interest going to that league, when it's oainfully obvious that all of the existing schools are either leaving, suing to be able to leave or are desperately trying to leave. Sounds like a great conference to join, eh? Assuming that West Virginia is able to bolt for the Big 12, here is what will be left of the existing Big East within the next couple of years.
Rutgers
Connecticut
USF
Cincinnati
Louisville (And they are openly trying like hell to get out.)
The Big East plans to add Boise, UCF, Houston and SMU. Now if you're Boise, why would you make this move? Chances are that the BCS takes one look at the new Big East, with only 9 teams, and sees a reincarnation of C-USA and says, "No Automatic BCS qualifier here." Then Boise would be stuck in yet another conference that doesn't help them, only this time, it's geographically absurd. Just stay in the Mountain West and convince the asleep commissioner of that league to take advantage of the opportunity and add Houston and SMU. With the previous additions of Nevada and Fresno, that league has as much claim to a BCS slot as a revamped Big East. The Big East needs Boise a hell of a lot more than Boise needs the Big East. And don't even get me started about Navy in the Big East.
On to the week. These are going to be abridged...running out of time.
2. @Texas -14 v Texas Tech: Definitely a departure forme, taking a favorite of this magnitude, but TT is a good matchup for Texas here. Tech's defense has been woeful, certainly not more evidence of that than last week when Iowa State gouged them for 500+ yards. It's looking like the anaomaly for the season is that shocking win over Oklahoma rather than last week, as they have given up big yards to everyone. Texas has a defense here which it can move the ball against in my opinion, as Tech is easily fooled and doesn't bring much pressure. They've also been good against the pass defensively,(other than the Oklahoma disaster). I think Texas rolls here.
3. @Ohio St -27.5 v Indiana: Indiana's defense is so bad, there does not exist a team that they can't look completely helpless against. Even Braxton Miller can throw at will against these clowns, and I would suspect that IU will not have much chance to put up double digits on offense. Since OSU has 3 losses, they will be more focused that you would normally expect in a game like this. A blowout will do them good, and that's what they'll get.
4. Virginia -3 @Maryland: I understand crazy things happen in college football and a team can look like a world beater one week and a bunch of misfits the next and vice cersa, but you have to go with the odds here. UVA is unpredictable enough to have beaten Miami last week and lose at home soundly the week before to NC State, a complete joke of a team. However, UVA is superior to Maryland in every facet of the game. Also...did anyone watch BC last night?? Yes? You saw how completely helpless they were? Ok. That team easily handled this Maryland squad last week. UVA has turned the corner in my opinion. If they play Maryland 10 times, they'll beat them 8 out of 10. As long as they don't completely shit the bed with turnovers, they should be ok here.
5. New Mexico St +34 @Georgia: believe it or not, NMSU can move the ball, ranked in the top half of Div 1 in any measure, including those that factor in their competition. Georgia has suspended every running back they have for this game, and are certainly looking at this one as a bye week with the Auburn game on deck and coming off the Florida game. I wouldn't be surprised if New Mexico State's 19th ranked pass offense gives the Dawgs some trouble in this one and we see some nervous moments for the faithful before georgia pulls away in the second half. I see this one at about 45-23, assuming Georgia shows up on offense.
6. @Wyoming +19.5 v TCU: believe it or not, Wyoming is actually 5-2 after a road win at San Diego St last week. Offensively, they have an exciting freshman QB in Brett Smith, and I think they'll be able to move it on an overrated TCU defense. TCU has been good offensively, but this game will be at altitude and the forecast is for a possible blizzard. They also have a look ahead situation to Boise next week, so I think they've got a very bad spot staring at them this week. A small money line bet might not be a bad idea.
7. Northwestern +17 @Nebraska: The Cats finally find themselves in a good spot, in a role that they are well suited for. Their problem on defense is that they can't cover anyone, and that won't necessarily be exploited this week against Nebraska. The Huskers are more of a running squad with Burkhead and Martinez, and Northwestern hasn't been brutal against the run. On the other hand, Nebraska's pass defense is not the greatest(last week notwithstanding...I think Kirk Cousins is highly overrated). Nebraska is also coming off an emotional high, having knocked off MSU is a big one last week. They are back home this week for a team that will be tough to get up for, yet has the ability with persa to hurt you. The Cats are due for a nice attention grabbing game.
8. @Oregon st +21 v Stanford: talk about the mother of all bad spots. Stanford is coming off the remarkable game they had last week with USC, the triple overtime marathon that ended in their 8th straight cover(the spread was 7.5!! glad I wasn't on USC), and next week they brace for the Quack attack coming to Palo Alto. Oregon St is completely under the radar, having just been tossed around by Utah last week. They are capable though, and this one smells like a possible trap for Stanford. Also, can they cover every freakin week? I'd think they are due to fail at some point. This is as good a time as we'll see, and one of the worst situational spots I can remember seeing all year.
9. @Oklahoma -14 v Texas A&M: Can A&M really rise up and make this one a game? They have shown themselves to be pretty intestinally weak this year, and they face a team bent on revenge in Oklahoma, who laid an egg and embarrassed themselves in College Station last year. A&M can't stop the pass, and Oklahoma will probably be able to do what just about everyone else has done to A&M this year, which is completely shut them down after the see what's going on for a couple possessions. Blowout.
10. Missouri + 2.5 @Baylor: How do you rack up 622 yards in offense, yet still lose by 35? I don't know, but you can ask Art Briles because he just did it last week. I suspect it's because your defense is so bad that it only takes the opponent 30 seconds to score and you find your capable but inefficient offense back on the field again. They ran 105 plays. That's only about 6 yards per play. It ended up being only worth 24 points because they did inept things like turn it over in the red zone, or on downs or miss field goals, etc. Missouri's offense is certainly good enough to light up the scoreboard this week, just like Baylor's been getting lit up every other week. They absolutely can't stop the run, so expect maybe 400 yards on the ground from Henry Josey, Franklin and co. Baylor will score some, but I don't see them keeping up.
11. @Arkansas -5 v South Carolina: SC can't score or move the ball on any decent defense, they scored only 13 on Auburn at home, only 14 at Tennessee last week and 14 at Mississippi St a couple weeks before that. Their defense has been great during that stretch, though, so they have been fortunate to have only 1 loss. The teams they've played though have not been anywhere near as good as Arkansas offensively, and the Hogs have a comparable D to those teams, maybe even a superior one. Throw in the fact that Arkansas has owned SC over the years, and this looks like a week where the Cocks good fortune runs out.
12. @Alabama -4.5 v LSU: Can Less Miles go into Tuscaloosa and embarrass Nick Saban on his home field after outcoaching him last year to much fanfare?? Yeesh, that seems like a far fetched possibility to me. I'm sure that Saban has quietly seethed about that for a year, as he undoubtedly knows that Miles is a buffoon. Both teams are off bye weeks, so both have had additional time, meaning coaching will come into play even more than usual this week. Also, I think Alabama has a big edge in their ability to run it on LSU. LSU, for all they've accomplished, is only averaging around 4.5 yards per carry, so I think it will be put in 3rd and longs all day, which does not bode well. On the other hand, there is some evidence that LSU can be run on, as they are a bit smallish up front, and Bama has undoubtedly the top OL in the country. I really think it all adds up to a big win for Bama.
13. Louisiana Tech +4 @Fresno St: The Bulldogs are a scrappy bunch, and I see them having the edge in almost all phases here, especially in Special teams. This is one of those games on paper that looks like the wrong team is favored, and the public is overwhlemingly on the other side. This is also the kind of game that Fresno doesn't feel like showing up for.
Others: Really bad spot for USC tonight agaisnt Colorado (+21). Colorado is supposed to have all their injured players back tonight and it might be snowing in Boulder. USC is off that crushing loss to Stanford, as doesn't have much to play for, while Colorado is desperate for anything good to happen, and everyone gets up for USC. It's just a lot of points, that's all I'm sayin.....Can't see how anyone can be dogged against UCONN at this point, and although Syracuse(+2) certainly shat the bed off the big win against West Virginia 2 weeks ago, they are capable.....Vandy (+13.5) matches up good with Florida, as I think they'll have th edge in the running games, and Jordan Rodgers makes them interesting on offense, but they will probably get Florida's full attention, so it's hard to recommend fully getting less than 2 TDs....I've sworn off North Carolina(-3.5), since they are a Jeckyl and Hyde team, but they should have no problem with NC State, who is not actually a football team, but a bunch of 18-22 year old college students who gather in drum circles and cry together. Stranger things have happened though......Wisconsin(-25.5) will probably beat the fuck out of Purdue......I like Cincinnati's(-3.5) chances to completely shut down Pitt, but they are due for a clunker, and I don't like that they are favored in this one. If they were getting even a point, it would be a musing....I think Utah (+4) is the better team in their game at Arizona, but they are another team that has befuddled me. They should be able to run it on Arizona though, and AZ has no chance to run it on them. Also a huge coaching advantage for UT here with Whittingham vs lifetime hack Tim Kish....I have a hunch that Washington(+16.5) keeps it close against Oregon in the last game at Husky Stadium as we know it. They have a great offense, but they have no chance of stopping Oregon. I think they'll keep it close though. That's it for now....have a good week!
One thing that I found funny was the spectacular way in which my teams failed last week. A good example of this is 2 of the noon games from last week. I knew going in that putting my trust in the Indiana defense and the Nc State offense were a couple of risky propositions. However, I didn't need these outfits to dominate, or even play well. For Nc State, to cover 19.5 points, I figured I needed 10 lousy points. They got shut out. In Indiana's case, I needed them merely to make Northwestern punt a couple times and hold them under around 45 points. They gave up points and yards at an exhilerating pace...NW had 440 yards at the half. A big fat middle finger goes out to those two cowardly units.
I read this week that Boise State is considering bolting the Mountain West for the Big East. I'm hoping that someone can explain to me why in the world Boise would have any interest going to that league, when it's oainfully obvious that all of the existing schools are either leaving, suing to be able to leave or are desperately trying to leave. Sounds like a great conference to join, eh? Assuming that West Virginia is able to bolt for the Big 12, here is what will be left of the existing Big East within the next couple of years.
Rutgers
Connecticut
USF
Cincinnati
Louisville (And they are openly trying like hell to get out.)
The Big East plans to add Boise, UCF, Houston and SMU. Now if you're Boise, why would you make this move? Chances are that the BCS takes one look at the new Big East, with only 9 teams, and sees a reincarnation of C-USA and says, "No Automatic BCS qualifier here." Then Boise would be stuck in yet another conference that doesn't help them, only this time, it's geographically absurd. Just stay in the Mountain West and convince the asleep commissioner of that league to take advantage of the opportunity and add Houston and SMU. With the previous additions of Nevada and Fresno, that league has as much claim to a BCS slot as a revamped Big East. The Big East needs Boise a hell of a lot more than Boise needs the Big East. And don't even get me started about Navy in the Big East.
On to the week. These are going to be abridged...running out of time.
2. @Texas -14 v Texas Tech: Definitely a departure forme, taking a favorite of this magnitude, but TT is a good matchup for Texas here. Tech's defense has been woeful, certainly not more evidence of that than last week when Iowa State gouged them for 500+ yards. It's looking like the anaomaly for the season is that shocking win over Oklahoma rather than last week, as they have given up big yards to everyone. Texas has a defense here which it can move the ball against in my opinion, as Tech is easily fooled and doesn't bring much pressure. They've also been good against the pass defensively,(other than the Oklahoma disaster). I think Texas rolls here.
3. @Ohio St -27.5 v Indiana: Indiana's defense is so bad, there does not exist a team that they can't look completely helpless against. Even Braxton Miller can throw at will against these clowns, and I would suspect that IU will not have much chance to put up double digits on offense. Since OSU has 3 losses, they will be more focused that you would normally expect in a game like this. A blowout will do them good, and that's what they'll get.
4. Virginia -3 @Maryland: I understand crazy things happen in college football and a team can look like a world beater one week and a bunch of misfits the next and vice cersa, but you have to go with the odds here. UVA is unpredictable enough to have beaten Miami last week and lose at home soundly the week before to NC State, a complete joke of a team. However, UVA is superior to Maryland in every facet of the game. Also...did anyone watch BC last night?? Yes? You saw how completely helpless they were? Ok. That team easily handled this Maryland squad last week. UVA has turned the corner in my opinion. If they play Maryland 10 times, they'll beat them 8 out of 10. As long as they don't completely shit the bed with turnovers, they should be ok here.
5. New Mexico St +34 @Georgia: believe it or not, NMSU can move the ball, ranked in the top half of Div 1 in any measure, including those that factor in their competition. Georgia has suspended every running back they have for this game, and are certainly looking at this one as a bye week with the Auburn game on deck and coming off the Florida game. I wouldn't be surprised if New Mexico State's 19th ranked pass offense gives the Dawgs some trouble in this one and we see some nervous moments for the faithful before georgia pulls away in the second half. I see this one at about 45-23, assuming Georgia shows up on offense.
6. @Wyoming +19.5 v TCU: believe it or not, Wyoming is actually 5-2 after a road win at San Diego St last week. Offensively, they have an exciting freshman QB in Brett Smith, and I think they'll be able to move it on an overrated TCU defense. TCU has been good offensively, but this game will be at altitude and the forecast is for a possible blizzard. They also have a look ahead situation to Boise next week, so I think they've got a very bad spot staring at them this week. A small money line bet might not be a bad idea.
7. Northwestern +17 @Nebraska: The Cats finally find themselves in a good spot, in a role that they are well suited for. Their problem on defense is that they can't cover anyone, and that won't necessarily be exploited this week against Nebraska. The Huskers are more of a running squad with Burkhead and Martinez, and Northwestern hasn't been brutal against the run. On the other hand, Nebraska's pass defense is not the greatest(last week notwithstanding...I think Kirk Cousins is highly overrated). Nebraska is also coming off an emotional high, having knocked off MSU is a big one last week. They are back home this week for a team that will be tough to get up for, yet has the ability with persa to hurt you. The Cats are due for a nice attention grabbing game.
8. @Oregon st +21 v Stanford: talk about the mother of all bad spots. Stanford is coming off the remarkable game they had last week with USC, the triple overtime marathon that ended in their 8th straight cover(the spread was 7.5!! glad I wasn't on USC), and next week they brace for the Quack attack coming to Palo Alto. Oregon St is completely under the radar, having just been tossed around by Utah last week. They are capable though, and this one smells like a possible trap for Stanford. Also, can they cover every freakin week? I'd think they are due to fail at some point. This is as good a time as we'll see, and one of the worst situational spots I can remember seeing all year.
9. @Oklahoma -14 v Texas A&M: Can A&M really rise up and make this one a game? They have shown themselves to be pretty intestinally weak this year, and they face a team bent on revenge in Oklahoma, who laid an egg and embarrassed themselves in College Station last year. A&M can't stop the pass, and Oklahoma will probably be able to do what just about everyone else has done to A&M this year, which is completely shut them down after the see what's going on for a couple possessions. Blowout.
10. Missouri + 2.5 @Baylor: How do you rack up 622 yards in offense, yet still lose by 35? I don't know, but you can ask Art Briles because he just did it last week. I suspect it's because your defense is so bad that it only takes the opponent 30 seconds to score and you find your capable but inefficient offense back on the field again. They ran 105 plays. That's only about 6 yards per play. It ended up being only worth 24 points because they did inept things like turn it over in the red zone, or on downs or miss field goals, etc. Missouri's offense is certainly good enough to light up the scoreboard this week, just like Baylor's been getting lit up every other week. They absolutely can't stop the run, so expect maybe 400 yards on the ground from Henry Josey, Franklin and co. Baylor will score some, but I don't see them keeping up.
11. @Arkansas -5 v South Carolina: SC can't score or move the ball on any decent defense, they scored only 13 on Auburn at home, only 14 at Tennessee last week and 14 at Mississippi St a couple weeks before that. Their defense has been great during that stretch, though, so they have been fortunate to have only 1 loss. The teams they've played though have not been anywhere near as good as Arkansas offensively, and the Hogs have a comparable D to those teams, maybe even a superior one. Throw in the fact that Arkansas has owned SC over the years, and this looks like a week where the Cocks good fortune runs out.
12. @Alabama -4.5 v LSU: Can Less Miles go into Tuscaloosa and embarrass Nick Saban on his home field after outcoaching him last year to much fanfare?? Yeesh, that seems like a far fetched possibility to me. I'm sure that Saban has quietly seethed about that for a year, as he undoubtedly knows that Miles is a buffoon. Both teams are off bye weeks, so both have had additional time, meaning coaching will come into play even more than usual this week. Also, I think Alabama has a big edge in their ability to run it on LSU. LSU, for all they've accomplished, is only averaging around 4.5 yards per carry, so I think it will be put in 3rd and longs all day, which does not bode well. On the other hand, there is some evidence that LSU can be run on, as they are a bit smallish up front, and Bama has undoubtedly the top OL in the country. I really think it all adds up to a big win for Bama.
13. Louisiana Tech +4 @Fresno St: The Bulldogs are a scrappy bunch, and I see them having the edge in almost all phases here, especially in Special teams. This is one of those games on paper that looks like the wrong team is favored, and the public is overwhlemingly on the other side. This is also the kind of game that Fresno doesn't feel like showing up for.
Others: Really bad spot for USC tonight agaisnt Colorado (+21). Colorado is supposed to have all their injured players back tonight and it might be snowing in Boulder. USC is off that crushing loss to Stanford, as doesn't have much to play for, while Colorado is desperate for anything good to happen, and everyone gets up for USC. It's just a lot of points, that's all I'm sayin.....Can't see how anyone can be dogged against UCONN at this point, and although Syracuse(+2) certainly shat the bed off the big win against West Virginia 2 weeks ago, they are capable.....Vandy (+13.5) matches up good with Florida, as I think they'll have th edge in the running games, and Jordan Rodgers makes them interesting on offense, but they will probably get Florida's full attention, so it's hard to recommend fully getting less than 2 TDs....I've sworn off North Carolina(-3.5), since they are a Jeckyl and Hyde team, but they should have no problem with NC State, who is not actually a football team, but a bunch of 18-22 year old college students who gather in drum circles and cry together. Stranger things have happened though......Wisconsin(-25.5) will probably beat the fuck out of Purdue......I like Cincinnati's(-3.5) chances to completely shut down Pitt, but they are due for a clunker, and I don't like that they are favored in this one. If they were getting even a point, it would be a musing....I think Utah (+4) is the better team in their game at Arizona, but they are another team that has befuddled me. They should be able to run it on Arizona though, and AZ has no chance to run it on them. Also a huge coaching advantage for UT here with Whittingham vs lifetime hack Tim Kish....I have a hunch that Washington(+16.5) keeps it close against Oregon in the last game at Husky Stadium as we know it. They have a great offense, but they have no chance of stopping Oregon. I think they'll keep it close though. That's it for now....have a good week!
Thursday, November 3, 2011
Week 10 Weeknight musings
Sorry I forgot to paste this one in here..a bit tardy.
Actually, only one. Probably should have stropped while I was ahead last week and cut things off after the BYU.TCU game.
1. Florida State -14 @Boston College:(Thursday) Looks like this line has risen up to 14.5. If that's the case, I would buy it down to 14. Both teams are coming off nice performances from last week. FSU with a 34-0 laugher over an imaginary football team (Nc State) and BC with a nice outright win at Maryland as a 7 point dog. Unfortunately for the Eagles, I don't believe that their good fortune will continue on Thursdat night.BC has had all kinds of problems this year on offense, but that is really nothing new. Since Matt Ryan graduated, they've been atrocious throwing the ball, and that continues unabated this year. Generaly, BC's strength was their previously solid defenses. There is no such strength this year. Their defense is nowhere near as good as we've come to expect from Bc teams, ranking 79th in yards per play. Also, the reason why they were able to get past Maryland was their running game, pedestrian before the game, and probably pedestrian after it, but good enough to win on Sat night. FSU is third in the country in rush defense, so BC will have to throw to get points. They can't. I don't think there's any way BC gets anything going offensively.
Full card to come!!
Actually, only one. Probably should have stropped while I was ahead last week and cut things off after the BYU.TCU game.
1. Florida State -14 @Boston College:(Thursday) Looks like this line has risen up to 14.5. If that's the case, I would buy it down to 14. Both teams are coming off nice performances from last week. FSU with a 34-0 laugher over an imaginary football team (Nc State) and BC with a nice outright win at Maryland as a 7 point dog. Unfortunately for the Eagles, I don't believe that their good fortune will continue on Thursdat night.BC has had all kinds of problems this year on offense, but that is really nothing new. Since Matt Ryan graduated, they've been atrocious throwing the ball, and that continues unabated this year. Generaly, BC's strength was their previously solid defenses. There is no such strength this year. Their defense is nowhere near as good as we've come to expect from Bc teams, ranking 79th in yards per play. Also, the reason why they were able to get past Maryland was their running game, pedestrian before the game, and probably pedestrian after it, but good enough to win on Sat night. FSU is third in the country in rush defense, so BC will have to throw to get points. They can't. I don't think there's any way BC gets anything going offensively.
Full card to come!!
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