Thanksgiving Musings-Final edition.

3-1 yesterday for a 3-2 start to the weekend. Stupid A&M, or better yet, stupid Pete for hitching my hopes to that bunch of hacks. On to the rest.

6. Ohio St +7.5 @Michigan: Even though it looks like Michigan is in good shape to break the painful losing streak that they're on against OSU, I don't think this is going to be a blowout. This kids on Ohio St have watched Michigan basically quit and roll over 3 years in a row, and they certainly will not go down without a fight. I also think that Ohio St is a good matchup for this offense, as they aren't going to be run over and they have done a mostly good job against the pass this year. Also, if Michigan has a weakness, it's run defense. If Michigan comes out and plays anything other than their best game, they are in danger of losing this one outright.

7. Iowa St +28.5 @Oklahoma: Even though this would appear to be a major situational problem for Iowa St, coming off their huge win over Okie St along with Oklahoma coming off a crushing loss to Baylor(nice calls by the musings on those two), I think Iowa St is a good enough team to handle this line. The win over Okie St last week was no joke...the Cyclones outgained and overcame a terrible pick 6 to win the game. They're also already bowl eligible, they aren't just a flash in the pan. Also, Oklahoma is not quite the same team without Ryan Broyles. I'm not sure I'd be playing this if the line was under 4 TDs, but even if Iowa St is down 35 points late, in a complete blowout, they will have a chance for the backdoor with a late score. I think the chances are pretty good that they'll stay within this number.

8. @Utah St -1 v Nevada: The numbers scream out that Utah St is the better team in this one. Both teams run the ball well, especially Utah St who is in the top 5 in the country in yards per carry. Both are competent passing attacks as well, but the difference is that Utah St has a much better defense than Nevada, who has struggled at times to stop people, especially against the run. I think Utah St shapes up to have a much easier time against the Nevada defense compared to vice versa, and Utah St is at home. They also have some major motivation as they are trying to secure their first bowl bid in something like 25 years.

9. Wyoming +32 @ Boise St: Even though it should be somewhat of a Cardinal rule to never go against Boise on the blue turf, in this case, I think it's asking a hell of a lot to cover 32 in this one. Boise has shown that although they are still a very good team, they are not measuring up to past Boise teams, and this is a spread (32 points against a 7-3 team) that is more appropriate for previous Boise squads. This one has struggled to stop the run, and has given up yards through the air as well. I actually have Wyoming with the edge in the running game in this one. 32 is just too much here...Wyoming is a pretty solid squad.

10. @Minnesota +11 Illinois: As an Illini fan, this one looks like a sure thing to me. Illinois chooses not to score on offense, for reasons unknown. They look to have a major advantage with their defense against Minny's offense, but that doesn't mean anything because their special teams will undoubtedly give Minny a couple 10 yard fields when their punter executes his weekly dropped snap at the 5 yard line. Minnesota is much improved, having beaten Iowa and outgained Michigan St and Northwestern in recent weeks. Illinois is headed the other direction, seemingly incapable of doing anything other than completely fucking up everything they touch. So I'm a bit skeptical that they can cover an 11 point spread on the road. I give them a 33% chance of winning the game.

11. @Indiana +8 v Purdue: I'm of the opinion that every dog, even the most pathetic, mangy, gutter rat, eventually has his day. Just about everyone gets one win in conference, and this is Indiana's last chance. They have a nice candidate for a victory in Purdue, who is winless on the road, including a loss to Rice. They've also struggled against the run, which is one of the rare things Indiana is adequate at doing. Indiana also has some sort of shot at stopping Purdue's pedestrian offense. They beat Purdue last year in Bill Lynch's swan song in a similar situation in West Lafayette, so I think they can make a game of it here.

12. Florida St -3 @Florida: Florida can't move the ball on anyone, especially good defenses, and FSU is among the best in the country. Facing defenses like this is nothing new for Florida, as they've already experienced the unpleasantness of playing Alabama, LSU and South Carolina, but they proved they can't move it on any of them. FSU is better on offense, and they have the intestinal fortitude to grab a victory here. Florida has proven that they don't under the ineffective tutelege of the hapless Charlie Weis and that maniac Muschamp.

13. @South Carolina -3.5 v Clemson: At first glance, I saw this line and thought the wrong team was favored, but on closer inspection, I like the Cocks here. First of all, once again Clemson has nothing but prode to play for, and they appear to have that quality in short supply, as a dead skunk against a non-team last week would suggest. Not the case for South Carolina, this will be a big game for them, at home against their rival without a conference title game to look forward to. As soon as things start to fall apart for Clemson, they have something else to focus on. They also are a bad matchup for South Carolina's defense, who is among the best in the country and forces a lot of turnovers. South Carolina, on the other hand, might see some class relief, as Clemson's defense is nothing to write home about.

14. @USC -16 v UCLA: USC has proven week after week that they don't need postseason play to be motivated, and Lane Kiffin deserves some kudos for that. This week, they get a chance to play the Pac 12 South champion (ha ha) since they aren't eligible for the honor. Do you think they might like to make a statement as to how preposterous the concept of the words "UCLA" and "champion" is? They probably won't punt all night unless they feel like giving their punter some work, and now that UCLA has the South locked up, they'll just want to get out of this game without hurting themselves. This looks to me to be a major blowout. There's also some bad blood from last year, so don't expect Kiffin to call off the dogs.


Others: I like Northwestern(+6), since they have all the motivation and an offense that stays on the field all day, but I'd like to have a TD, since the Cats always find ways to lose tough heartbreakers at home....I like Rutgers(-4) chances to beat UCONN rather handily because they are playing for a BCS bid and UCONN won't be able to move the ball on them....Penn State (+14.5) would definitely be a musing if I wasn't convinced that the Big Ten will do everything humanly possible to keep them out of the Big Ten championship game. They made sure Wisconsin won last week to set up this game, since Penn State doesn't figure to be able to win this. However, if PSU starts to get some momentum, expect an avalanche of "questionable" calls against the Nits. I'm not going to be on the other side of that. I think Penn State will give Wisconsin all they can handle though.....I think VT is going to handle Virginia, but the line moved to 5.5, which I'm a bit skeptical of....LaLA has a shot at hanging within 13.5 of Arizona.....I would have been all over Colorado St if their line hadn't moved from 16.5 to 11.5 over the past couple of days. I don't think Air Force can stop CSU effectively enough to cover a big line like that on the road....I think Notre Dame and Stanford are pretty evenly matched, so I lean to ND, but that's assuming no mind-numbing turnovers take place for the Irish, which we all know is a preposterous assumption.

That's it for this week. Take care!