Week 10 Musings cont'd

I should probably quit whilst I'm ahead, much like I should have last week, but we all know that is not going to happen. Florida State made pretty short work of BC, who is just a putrid outfit. Hopefully, we won't see a repeat of last week, when we had a 2-0 start and then proceeded to go 3-8 on Saturday to finish the week at 5-8. 58-61-2 for the year...work is needed to get back to .500 this week.

One thing that I found funny was the spectacular way in which my teams failed last week. A good example of this is 2 of the noon games from last week. I knew going in that putting my trust in the Indiana defense and the Nc State offense were a couple of risky propositions. However, I didn't need these outfits to dominate, or even play well. For Nc State, to cover 19.5 points, I figured I needed 10 lousy points. They got shut out. In Indiana's case, I needed them merely to make Northwestern punt a couple times and hold them under around 45 points. They gave up points and yards at an exhilerating pace...NW had 440 yards at the half. A big fat middle finger goes out to those two cowardly units.

I read this week that Boise State is considering bolting the Mountain West for the Big East. I'm hoping that someone can explain to me why in the world Boise would have any interest going to that league, when it's oainfully obvious that all of the existing schools are either leaving, suing to be able to leave or are desperately trying to leave. Sounds like a great conference to join, eh? Assuming that West Virginia is able to bolt for the Big 12, here is what will be left of the existing Big East within the next couple of years.

Rutgers
Connecticut
USF
Cincinnati
Louisville (And they are openly trying like hell to get out.)

The Big East plans to add Boise, UCF, Houston and SMU. Now if you're Boise, why would you make this move? Chances are that the BCS takes one look at the new Big East, with only 9 teams, and sees a reincarnation of C-USA and says, "No Automatic BCS qualifier here." Then Boise would be stuck in yet another conference that doesn't help them, only this time, it's geographically absurd. Just stay in the Mountain West and convince the asleep commissioner of that league to take advantage of the opportunity and add Houston and SMU. With the previous additions of Nevada and Fresno, that league has as much claim to a BCS slot as a revamped Big East. The Big East needs Boise a hell of a lot more than Boise needs the Big East. And don't even get me started about Navy in the Big East.

On to the week. These are going to be abridged...running out of time.

2. @Texas -14 v Texas Tech: Definitely a departure forme, taking a favorite of this magnitude, but TT is a good matchup for Texas here. Tech's defense has been woeful, certainly not more evidence of that than last week when Iowa State gouged them for 500+ yards. It's looking like the anaomaly for the season is that shocking win over Oklahoma rather than last week, as they have given up big yards to everyone. Texas has a defense here which it can move the ball against in my opinion, as Tech is easily fooled and doesn't bring much pressure. They've also been good against the pass defensively,(other than the Oklahoma disaster). I think Texas rolls here.

3. @Ohio St -27.5 v Indiana: Indiana's defense is so bad, there does not exist a team that they can't look completely helpless against. Even Braxton Miller can throw at will against these clowns, and I would suspect that IU will not have much chance to put up double digits on offense. Since OSU has 3 losses, they will be more focused that you would normally expect in a game like this. A blowout will do them good, and that's what they'll get.

4. Virginia -3 @Maryland: I understand crazy things happen in college football and a team can look like a world beater one week and a bunch of misfits the next and vice cersa, but you have to go with the odds here. UVA is unpredictable enough to have beaten Miami last week and lose at home soundly the week before to NC State, a complete joke of a team. However, UVA is superior to Maryland in every facet of the game. Also...did anyone watch BC last night?? Yes? You saw how completely helpless they were? Ok. That team easily handled this Maryland squad last week. UVA has turned the corner in my opinion. If they play Maryland 10 times, they'll beat them 8 out of 10. As long as they don't completely shit the bed with turnovers, they should be ok here.

5. New Mexico St +34 @Georgia: believe it or not, NMSU can move the ball, ranked in the top half of Div 1 in any measure, including those that factor in their competition. Georgia has suspended every running back they have for this game, and are certainly looking at this one as a bye week with the Auburn game on deck and coming off the Florida game. I wouldn't be surprised if New Mexico State's 19th ranked pass offense gives the Dawgs some trouble in this one and we see some nervous moments for the faithful before georgia pulls away in the second half. I see this one at about 45-23, assuming Georgia shows up on offense.

6. @Wyoming +19.5 v TCU: believe it or not, Wyoming is actually 5-2 after a road win at San Diego St last week. Offensively, they have an exciting freshman QB in Brett Smith, and I think they'll be able to move it on an overrated TCU defense. TCU has been good offensively, but this game will be at altitude and the forecast is for a possible blizzard. They also have a look ahead situation to Boise next week, so I think they've got a very bad spot staring at them this week. A small money line bet might not be a bad idea.

7. Northwestern +17 @Nebraska: The Cats finally find themselves in a good spot, in a role that they are well suited for. Their problem on defense is that they can't cover anyone, and that won't necessarily be exploited this week against Nebraska. The Huskers are more of a running squad with Burkhead and Martinez, and Northwestern hasn't been brutal against the run. On the other hand, Nebraska's pass defense is not the greatest(last week notwithstanding...I think Kirk Cousins is highly overrated). Nebraska is also coming off an emotional high, having knocked off MSU is a big one last week. They are back home this week for a team that will be tough to get up for, yet has the ability with persa to hurt you. The Cats are due for a nice attention grabbing game.

8. @Oregon st +21 v Stanford: talk about the mother of all bad spots. Stanford is coming off the remarkable game they had last week with USC, the triple overtime marathon that ended in their 8th straight cover(the spread was 7.5!! glad I wasn't on USC), and next week they brace for the Quack attack coming to Palo Alto. Oregon St is completely under the radar, having just been tossed around by Utah last week. They are capable though, and this one smells like a possible trap for Stanford. Also, can they cover every freakin week? I'd think they are due to fail at some point. This is as good a time as we'll see, and one of the worst situational spots I can remember seeing all year.

9. @Oklahoma -14 v Texas A&M: Can A&M really rise up and make this one a game? They have shown themselves to be pretty intestinally weak this year, and they face a team bent on revenge in Oklahoma, who laid an egg and embarrassed themselves in College Station last year. A&M can't stop the pass, and Oklahoma will probably be able to do what just about everyone else has done to A&M this year, which is completely shut them down after the see what's going on for a couple possessions. Blowout.

10. Missouri + 2.5 @Baylor: How do you rack up 622 yards in offense, yet still lose by 35? I don't know, but you can ask Art Briles because he just did it last week. I suspect it's because your defense is so bad that it only takes the opponent 30 seconds to score and you find your capable but inefficient offense back on the field again. They ran 105 plays. That's only about 6 yards per play. It ended up being only worth 24 points because they did inept things like turn it over in the red zone, or on downs or miss field goals, etc. Missouri's offense is certainly good enough to light up the scoreboard this week, just like Baylor's been getting lit up every other week. They absolutely can't stop the run, so expect maybe 400 yards on the ground from Henry Josey, Franklin and co. Baylor will score some, but I don't see them keeping up.

11. @Arkansas -5 v South Carolina: SC can't score or move the ball on any decent defense, they scored only 13 on Auburn at home, only 14 at Tennessee last week and 14 at Mississippi St a couple weeks before that. Their defense has been great during that stretch, though, so they have been fortunate to have only 1 loss. The teams they've played though have not been anywhere near as good as Arkansas offensively, and the Hogs have a comparable D to those teams, maybe even a superior one. Throw in the fact that Arkansas has owned SC over the years, and this looks like a week where the Cocks good fortune runs out.

12. @Alabama -4.5 v LSU: Can Less Miles go into Tuscaloosa and embarrass Nick Saban on his home field after outcoaching him last year to much fanfare?? Yeesh, that seems like a far fetched possibility to me. I'm sure that Saban has quietly seethed about that for a year, as he undoubtedly knows that Miles is a buffoon. Both teams are off bye weeks, so both have had additional time, meaning coaching will come into play even more than usual this week. Also, I think Alabama has a big edge in their ability to run it on LSU. LSU, for all they've accomplished, is only averaging around 4.5 yards per carry, so I think it will be put in 3rd and longs all day, which does not bode well. On the other hand, there is some evidence that LSU can be run on, as they are a bit smallish up front, and Bama has undoubtedly the top OL in the country. I really think it all adds up to a big win for Bama.

13. Louisiana Tech +4 @Fresno St: The Bulldogs are a scrappy bunch, and I see them having the edge in almost all phases here, especially in Special teams. This is one of those games on paper that looks like the wrong team is favored, and the public is overwhlemingly on the other side. This is also the kind of game that Fresno doesn't feel like showing up for.

Others: Really bad spot for USC tonight agaisnt Colorado (+21). Colorado is supposed to have all their injured players back tonight and it might be snowing in Boulder. USC is off that crushing loss to Stanford, as doesn't have much to play for, while Colorado is desperate for anything good to happen, and everyone gets up for USC. It's just a lot of points, that's all I'm sayin.....Can't see how anyone can be dogged against UCONN at this point, and although Syracuse(+2) certainly shat the bed off the big win against West Virginia 2 weeks ago, they are capable.....Vandy (+13.5) matches up good with Florida, as I think they'll have th edge in the running games, and Jordan Rodgers makes them interesting on offense, but they will probably get Florida's full attention, so it's hard to recommend fully getting less than 2 TDs....I've sworn off North Carolina(-3.5), since they are a Jeckyl and Hyde team, but they should have no problem with NC State, who is not actually a football team, but a bunch of 18-22 year old college students who gather in drum circles and cry together. Stranger things have happened though......Wisconsin(-25.5) will probably beat the fuck out of Purdue......I like Cincinnati's(-3.5) chances to completely shut down Pitt, but they are due for a clunker, and I don't like that they are favored in this one. If they were getting even a point, it would be a musing....I think Utah (+4) is the better team in their game at Arizona, but they are another team that has befuddled me. They should be able to run it on Arizona though, and AZ has no chance to run it on them. Also a huge coaching advantage for UT here with Whittingham vs lifetime hack Tim Kish....I have a hunch that Washington(+16.5) keeps it close against Oregon in the last game at Husky Stadium as we know it. They have a great offense, but they have no chance of stopping Oregon. I think they'll keep it close though. That's it for now....have a good week!