Week 12 Musings

Well, this is the last full card of games, although scheduling changes have turned Thanksgiving week into pretty much a full week. Thuis week is a weak card...no real barnburner games, but certainly some that we can brew up some interest for via the degenerate pastime. 8-5 last week to move the season total to 74-71-3. A bad break on the Miami/FSU game kept it from being a really nice week, but I'm sure we got some nice breaks in the wins.

The debate continues to rage on who LSU should play in the MNC game, assuming that Okie State stumbles. Although I bristle a little bit at the assumption that they are going to lose, I can understand it. It's just hard to believe that they'll follow through and take care of business, especially with Oklahoma staring them down Dec 3rd. I really hope they go undefeated though, because in my opinion, there really aren't any other teams worthy of facing off with LSU assuming they go undefeated. As we've mentioned, a Bama rematch is completely unfair to LSU. Oklahoma lost to one of the worst teams in the country, Texas Tech, so they should be out. Oregon is in almost the same boat as Alabama, having already lost to LSU, but I'd be more inclined to give them another shot than Bama because their game was longer ago, they had all kinds of shitty breaks, and the game was on a neutral site. Stanford is out, Boise is out. Assuming Okie St loses in a shootout, I'd almost give them the nod. At this point though, I think they are going to win that Bedlam game. The funniest thing about this whole conundrum, however, is that you can make a case that LSU has a tougher road than Alabama. Bama has Ga Southern(!!!) and an Auburn team who no longer employs an actual offense. LSU still has Arkansas and the stupid SEC Championship game in which they will play a capable Georgia team. There are some crazy scenarios if LSU loses. If they lose to Arkansas, Bama goes to Atlanta because the West becomes a 3 way tie and Bama hold the tiebreaker. If they lose to Georgia, one of Bama or LSU(probably LSU) won't even make the BCS. It's crazy. Stay tuned.

Speaking of the SEC, I see where Archie Manning, world's greatest and most respected living human, has been tabbed to chair the committe picking the new Ole Miss coach. A lot of discussion has followed saying that it almost doesn't matter who they pick because even in a best case scenario, they'll never be better than 3rd in that division, since they have no shot of passing up Bama and LSU. It might seem that way, but let's consider something. Let's pretend that Nick Saban decided to stick around at Michigan St in 1999. Does anybody remember what LSU looked like before he got there? In the ten years before Saban got there, LSU's record was 54-65. They sucked. How about Alabama before Saban got there? 67-55. Not exactly a juggernaut. Both programs had sub .500 conference records during those decade long periods. If Nick Saban decides he's had enough of the maniacal. suicidal psychopaths that cheer for his team and leaves tomorrow, they might be right back where they started. If he decided that the dump truck full of money that they desperately showered on him 5 years wasn't worth it and he stayed in the NFL, where would they be? Probably rifling through the second or third stiff that more closely resembled the other 5 stiffs they had hired since Gene Stallings. So one guy, making one decision, completely changed the power structure of the SEC for a decade. It's that easy. All that matters is the coach. If you get the right guy, you'll be good. If you don't, you'll suck, regardless of how much"tradition" your program has. Just ask Indiana basketball.

On to the week.
1. (FRIDAY) Oklahoma St -27 @ Iowa St: After much hemming and hawing, I am going to stay with the Cowboys in the road favorite role, even though it's bordering on ridiculous. Having said that, I think their defense, the most underrated defense in America, will shut down ISu and they will score as usual. You may once again see a spread covered at halftime by these maniacs. Iowa St is decent on defense, but decent against OSU gets you the wrong side of a 55 spot.

2. Iowa -2.5 @Purdue: I still refuse to believe in this Purdue team and their buffoon coach Danny Hope. They are coming off a nice win over Ohio State at home, but can Hope coach them up to follow up that performance with yet another strong one? I don't think so. They are unbeaten at home in the Big Ten, but they have beaten team that either can't throw(Minnesota, Ohio St) or for some reason refuse to (Illinois). Despite that, they are still ranked among the doldrums in the nation against the pass, and Iowa finally represents someone who can throw the ball. I also think the chances of Purdue sweeping their home schedule while at the same time Iowa loses it's 4th straight road game are unlikely. Iowa is due for a good road performance, as their last road game was a loss at Minnesota, and they are coming in pissed off after losing to MSU at home.

3. Minnesota +16 @Northwestern: Well, here we go again. Can Coach Fitz cover as a home favorite for the second week in a row? Minnesota has had some terrible football teams over the past few years, but they've covered in 5 out of the last 6 meetings between these two teams, and in no case has the game been decided by more than 7 points in the Cats favor. In my opinion, Minnesota is a continually improving club. Their last road trip indicated that, as they played Michigan State to a standstill on both sides of the ball. I think they'll put up enough points to hang close in this one, and although NW appears to be on a roll, they are not above puking all over themselves in a situation like this.

4. @Houston -20 v SMU: I've been a fan of SMU this year, but this is a bad spot for the Mustangs. One of my favorite players in the country, SMU RB Zach Line, has just been ruled out for the year because he needs surgery on his foot. With Line goes most of SMU's offensive danger, because their passing game has fallen far short of expectations this year. Defensively they are ok, but nobody is going to stop Case Keenum this year, especially at home, where coincidentally, their defense goes from flammable to a solid, ballhawking unit. Throw in the fact that GameDay is there this week(Did I mentioned it's a shitty week for games?) and SMU is likely to get their best shot. Looks like a beat down, something like 56-21.

5. Penn State +7 (buy it if you have to) @Ohio St: Here's a team, Ohio St, who in the last 2 weeks has lost to Purdue and played Indiana to a standstill for about 55 minutes. Everyone knows that they can't move the ball for shit, and certainly can't throw it. Despite all that, here they are at 6-4, a 7 point favorite against a, 8-2 team that will almost certainly completely shut them down. Doesn't make much sense to me. Maybe it's because the students at that school are big fans of anal rape, I don't know. I would have been on board at least with the assertion that Penn State will have just as much of a problem offensively as Ohio State will, but Purdue and Indiana converted a combined 19 for 35 on third down in the past 2 games, so maybe PSU will have a shot at doing some things. Penn State can win this game. I hope they don't, for the B10 title game's sake, but they definitely can.

6. @South Florida -1 v Miami: Statistically, this game is kind of a tossup. Miami has the better offense, but USF has the much better defense. In addition to that, USF's offense is good enough to move the ball on Miami, especially on the ground. In a game like this, the little brother always has the motivational edge, and USF will have the home field as well. USF needs this game badly, and Miami might be packing things in, as two of their best receivers have been added to the list of injured or suspended guys. I like USF here.

7. Louisiana Tech +7 @ Nevada: Nevada has dominated this series since Colin Kaepernick started taking snaps for Chris Ault and Co, but these teams have proven to be departures from the teams of recent years. LT has been a road warrior, going 4-2 including convincing wins Fresno, Utah St and Ole Miss while losing only to Mississippi St(in OT) and Southern Miss(by 2). They are solid on defense and good enough on offense to get W's. They have not been handily beaten by anyone this year, and at the same time, unless it's the dregs of the world like UNLV and New Mexico, Nevada hasn't destroyed anyone either. Statistically, it's a standstill, and LT has a big edge in special teams. I'll take the 7 points.

8. @Air Force -24 v UNLV: UNLV as a road dog is an auto play, I don't care what the spread is. They just managed to find a way to lose to New Mexico, so they certainly can find a way to get their doors blown off by a pissed off Air Force squad that's trying to get bowl eligible and needs this win to get there. It's as simple as that. Somebody named Crusoe Gongbay ran wild on them last week for crying out loud.http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/results/2011-2012/boxscore30308.html

9. Virginia +17 @Florida State: This is a role that UVA is pretty well suited for. They are solid on defense and good enough on offense to handle a big spread against almost anyone. They proved that they can handle a tough road assignment when they won at Miami. They can hang in this one. Both of these teams are 7-3, UVA is still alive for their division within the ACC, a 17 point spread in this one just has to be taken. I like Florida State, but I can see UVA being within a possession a lot easier than I can see FSU up by 24. As long as UVA doesn't get hit with a bunch of crazy turnovers, they should be in this game.

10. Colorado +11 @UCLA: I've gotta be crazy backing this collection of misfits 2 weeks in a row, right? yeah, probably, but I like the way this sets up for Colorado. They gained confidence last week with their win over Arizona, and at the same time, UCLA pissed away all the modest goodwill they built up with their mini resurgence last week when they got drilled at Utah. now all the naysayers are back in Neuheisel's kitchen, and things are mucho uncomfortable again. Colorado should be comfortable because they are once again playing a terrible defense. UCLA is among the bottom 10 in the country by anyone's measure, both against the run and against the pass. UCLA also has shown that they can play down to anyone's level, and I think that Colorado is a decent team when they have their QB, RB Stewart and WR Richardson healthy. They are also very cognizant of their current road losing streak, and want to get that thing taken care of this week. QB Hansen actually guaranteed victory. Maybe he knows something! I agree...Colorado could easily win this one, so I'll take the points.

11 @Oregon -14.5 v USC: In the past 2 years of these meetings, Oregon has rolled up 600+ yards. There is no doubt that they will be jacked up huge for this one, since it's USC, a national TV date and their last chance to impress people. All guns will be blazing. The difference between this year and previous years is that this is the best defense that Oregon has had in recent memory, strong against the run, and importantly in this case, the pass. It is still unknown if Robert Woods is going to play in this game. USC is screwed if he doesn't, but even if he does, he looks to be at less than 100%. Oregon will likely be at least in the high 40's in this one, USC is going to have to light it up to keep pace, and I don't think they will.

12. Oklahoma -16 @Baylor: Baylor can't stop a soul on defense, so Oklahoma is going to keep scoring until the scoreboard runs out of juice. Baylor will get theirs, but not nearly enough to keep pace. Oklahoma is missing some guys, namely Ryan Broyles, but that is not likely to matter as his buddies will pick up the slack for him. Sometimes Oklahoma is better off on the road in games like this, because they tend to fall asleep in Norman. They are also pretty good against the pass, so they'll force Baylor into some empty possessions. Baylor will not do such things. This is your garden variety Big 12 have vs have not blowout. 59-27.

13. @Arizona St -10.5 v Arizona: It's a rivalry game, but who cares. Arizona has packed it in a long time ago, as if the blowout loss to Colorado didn't shout that message from the rooftops. They are hideous on defense, ranked almost dead last in every meaning ful category, so ASU will score at will, unless they show up drunk or something. They are certainly capable on offense, so UA will be badly overmatched. ASU is also embarrassed for giving up a ton of yards to some no name 3rd string QB from WAZZOU, so they will be pissed off and out for blood. They can still win the Pac 12 South or whatever, so they'll be looking to hang a banner on UA. I doubt that this one will be close.

Others: Cincinnati is heading to Rutgers(+3). QB Zach Collaros broke his ankle, so he's out. Rutgers is among the top 10 defenses in the country and they are getting points at home facing a team quarterbacked by someone named Munchie Legeaux. Sounds good to me....I also like Louisville (+1) to bounce back from their loss at Pitt to beat UCONN. Louisville is good on D and UCONN couldn't score in a Bankgkok whorehouse....I've got a hunch that NC State(+8), hippie freaks that they are, will figure out a way to stay close to Clemson, who can't possibly give a shit about this week since they already wrapped up their division and have a bunch of guys banged up. I'd be skeptical of their chances even if they were motivated and healthy...BC (+24.5) seems to be a good bet to be the most recent recipient of a horseshit performance from Notre Dame, as they are due for one....Even though Tennessee if getting Tyler Bray back this week, meaning they wil have an actual offense, I think Vandy(-1.5) is better than them, and a Vandy win will further turn up the heat on Derek Doofus and his orange pants...Lastly, even though they need the game for the SEC East crown, Georgia is likely to absolutely sleepwalk through their game with Kentucky (+30). Kentucky is due to show a pulse at some point, so it might as well be this week. Georgia will probably win going away, but i would be pretty surprised if they blow out the Wildcats from the get go. That's it for this week. Take Care!!!!!!