Week 11 Musings

A decent week last week, 8-5, so we get back to being right up there with a coin flip. 66-66-2. The "hope" is that we'll get a positive week this week to get back over .500. Haven't had a great week at all this year. Maybe this will be the week. Probably not.

Lots of goings on in the college football world this past week. First of all, we have the aftermath of the Bama/LSU game from last weekend. A couple things on that: You will not hear any more serious criticisms of Les Miles on these pages. maybe a hardy har here and there about some funny thing he said, but nothing that questions his coaching acumen. He has stared down Nick Saban two years in a row now and left the Great Saban as a quivering pile of jell-o. Hard to believe, but it happened, and I will heretofore take heed Coach Miles's coaching acumen. Second: Alabama is out of the MNC race. Sorry...you lost at home. You don't get a second crack at LSU. This reminds me of the dilemma we all had in '06 when Michigan and Ohio St were being discussed as candidates for a rematch in the MNC game. We all know how that turned out. Let's not make the mistake of considering that again, and rendering the game just played as meaningless. I'll be hoping that Stanford or Oklahoma St goes undefeated so we don't have to worry about it. Having said all that, I have seen some comments from LSU players and even Miles after the game that they wouldn't mind playing Bama again. My primary objection to keeping Bama out would be to avoid being unfair to LSU, but if LSU says "bring on the rematch", and they don't mind that they are getting screwed in the process, then so be it. Not at the expense of any undefeated teams though. This would be the point that I mention an undefeated Boise as a deserving participant, but that will never happen, so I'll not waste any further keystrokes going into it.

One other story from this week was that little incident that happened in State College. Not a big deal, only the most sickening scandal and most egregious behavior in college sports history. If you haven't read the Grand Jury presentation, you're all big boys, you should. http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/uploadedFiles/Press/Sandusky-Grand-Jury-Presentment.pdf. Obviously, I don't know all the specifics that happened in this episode, what joe paterno knew, or chose to pretend he didn't know, but I know this: I used to love the guy. Now I think he's no different than any other self serving, crony protecting scumbag. And I think he certainly could have prevented countless numbers of children being sexually assaulted. I think he knew he had a pedophile on his hands, and he did nothing about it. For 9 years. We know of 9 victims of this animal Sandusky. I've heard the number is growing, as more victims gain the courage to come forward. There are probably at least dozens more, as the presentation indicates that Sandusky had only one purpose in life, and that was to assault as many young boys as possible. So in my opinion, Joe Paterno needs to go and drop dead. Just shuffle off to the old folks home, drool all over yourself and just drop dead. We'll all be better for it. I won't say he should be sent to jail, because he's such an old, decrepit reptile that he'd probably break his hip and catch pneumonia as soon as he got the news that he'd soon be resigned to fate that Sandusky's victims were. So there's no point. Just drop dead.

Paterno obviously knew that Sandusky was a pedophile. He knew about an incident in 1998, when Sandusky was still DC, where he apparently made an advance on a boy in the a Penn State locker room shower. Nothing happened because the kid immediately split, then told his Mom, who reported it to the police. Nothing came of the investigation, but you can be sure Paterno knew about it, and probably more than that because Sandusky "retired" in 1999, at the ripe old age of 55. For comparisons sake, Nick Saban is 60. Les Miles is 58. Pete Carroll is 60. In coaching lifetimes, 55 is your prime. Jerry Sandusky was a legendary coach. He was the architect of 2 National Champion defenses, and is widely credited for what might be the best game plan ever, he scheme to beat Miami in the 1987 MNC game. He was certainly no incompetent. He was the finalist for the Maryland head coaching job the year before, so he certainly had aspirations to keep going. So why did he abruptly retire in 1999? It's been reported he "negotiated" a bunch of perks that he would get during his retirement, access to the facilities, a listing in the faculty directory, etc. Who negotiates perks when the are voluntarily resigning? He was forced out, probably because he represented too much of a risk, because his addiction to boys was so strong, and it was only inevitable that he would be caught and bring embarrassment to the coaching staff. Get the guy out of here and let him molest kids on his own time. I won't even get into what happened in 2002, and how Paterno could know about that incident and do nothing, or how Sandusky could be allowed to be working out at the football facilities even LAST WEEK, when everyone had already testified before the grand jury and likely were aware of all the charges against him. Or how Mike McQueary, after witnessing Sandusky anally raping a 10 year old boy, could possibly coexist with the man for 9 YEARS in the same facility. There's more to come, I'm sure of it, and the more we learn, the worse it's going to get. Oh and by the way...it's nice to know that PSU students are so vehemently behind Paterno that they were willing to riot about it, or at least that's the reason they want us to believe. If that's their position, you can only come to 2 conclusions. Either they have no clue what the facts are in this case and they haven't read the grand jury presentation, or they love the idea of young boys being anally raped. One or the other.


OK!!! Back to football!!


1. Oklahoma St -18 @Texas Tech: At this point, I know it seems silly, but I refuse to go against Oklahoma St in this role. They just keep covering as a road favorite. Texas Tech is 111th against the run. They are 90th against the pass, and this is against a schedule that hasn't included Baylor, or OSU or Missouri yet. Iowa St gashed them. Kansas gashed them. Texas gashed them. None of these teams can match OSU as an offensive machine. OSU is going to put up 55, maybe 60 in this one. Will Tech score 38?? Well, maybe, but I would doubt it, because OSU's problem has been stopping the run, and Tech can't run it. OSU actually has been very good against the pass, and Tech has made a habit of running up tons of yards and having limited points to show for it. Kind of like Baylor a few weeks ago. I'm going to predict a 52-24 game, and that's probably close to a best case scenario for Tech.

2. @Penn State +3.5 v Nebraska: I should probably have my head examined for even considering this game, but assuming the players are focused, I think there's a lot of value in this one. There should be no effect on the players that Paterno isn't there...he hasn't been there for about 10 years in human form. That old stammering, drooling carcass sitting up in the pressbox certainly didn't have any effect on the games, so we can only assume that things will move on as they have been. I have not seen much evidence from Nebraska that they can move the ball on the road against a good defense, let alone this defense, which is certainly among the elite in the nation this year. Also, although Penn State's laughable attempts to throw the ball indicate that they can't throw their way out of a wet paper sack, they can run it a little, and Nebraska has not been stout in this area, ranked 68th in the country. In my opinion, Nebraska is a pretty good matchup for Penn State, and PSU will certainly be ready to go, as the sight of Nebraska gets the juices flowing. Who knows what effect the events of the week will have on these kids, but it's too good of a value to pass up, since the wrong team is favored in my opinion.

3. Ohio State -7.5 @Purdue: The last time PSU came in here, they lost, so I expect that Purdue will get their full attention, especially after the way they played last week. Purdue is ranked 88th against the run, so I expect OSU to run at will on them. Also, OSU should have no problem stopping Purdue's pedestrian attack, as their defense will have a renewed vigor after their performance last week. I like OSU in a bit of a laugher here.

4. Michigan St -2.5 @Iowa: Big. big risk going against Iowa, since they are such a good home team historically, but I think this is a bad matchup for them. They have given up huge passing yards to teams that are not good passing teams, i.e, Minnesota, Iowa St, Pitt, etc. Now they face Kirk Cousins, who I think is overrated but is certainly as good or better than some of these other clowns that have lit up Iowa. Offensively, Iowa is going to face what is probably the best defense they've seen, except for maybe Penn State, who held them to 3 points. MSU is also a blitzing team, and James Vandenberg has fared well only against rope a dope type defenses. The spot is also not good, as they are coming off the good performance against Michigan and MSU is looking to right the ship after a couple of poor performances the past 2 weeks. MSU would be in the driver's seat with a win, I think they'll being their A game in this one.

5. Rice +17 @Northwestern: Northwestern is 5-21 as a home favorite under Pat Fitzgerald. They are in a bad spot coming off a great win at Nebraska, who couldn't throw the ball well enough to exploit their glaring weakness, which is pass defense. I don't know if Rice completely fits the bill as a good passing team, but they've had some success on offense this year. Last week is a good example, when they rolled up 671 total yards and 400+ through the air on a not terrible UTEP defense. I like the Cats for the rest of the year, and their offense is for real, but I don't like this spot for them.

6. @Boston College +3 v NCState is a terrible road team usually. They are coming off an unfathomable game in which they shut out North Carolina. Now they go on the road to face a BC team that just had it's worst game in decades and is now waiting to face the coach that ditched them for NC State. I think the Wolfpack will get their best shot. I don't think Nc State can cover a close road spread against anyone, as they are a bunch of pansies. They are 4-12 in their last 16 in this role, and the last time they came to Boston, the spread was close(+2) and they lost 52-20. This is a fade of Nc State, who will be free to attend Occupy Boston as soon as the ink is dry on the game story.

7. Wyoming +17 @Air Force: I would buy the half point to 17. Historically, the games in this series have been pretty close, and this year Wyoming(5-3) actually has bowl aspirations to play for. They've already beaten San Diego State on the road, who beat Air Force in Colorado Springs. As you know, I am not a proponent of the transitive property, but it certainly indicates that Wyoming belongs on the field in this game. In order to cover a spread like this, Air Force is going to have to score a shitload of points, because their defense has been terrible, 109th against the run and 92nd against the pass. Unfortunately, Wyoming is worse in both categories, but they have done well against Air Force's attack in recent years and tend to get pounded by bigger, more physical teams. It's a good matchup for Wyoming, who by the numbers should be able to move the ball very effectively in this game. I'll certainly take 17 here, and wouldn't be stunned at an outright win.

8. @Colorado +10 v Arizona: Both of these teams, and defenses are terrible, but I can't get past the line value here. Good Lord, I can't believe I am on these pathetic losers again, but how can Arizona, at 2-7 be a double digit road favorite? If they were playing the Colorado team that Oregon played, with no Paul Richardson, no Tyler Hansen and no Rodney Stewart, I can see it, but all those guys are back, and Colorado has to look at this game as their last chance to get a victory and get something positive under their belt in the new coach's first season. Tyler Hansen has a 16/6 ratio, has some good receivers and a pretty good collection of talent around him. This really should be a close spread, not a double digit number.This game will be ugly, but it should be close, and I think a Colorado outright win is just as likely as them getting blown out. (man...Colorado, Wyoming, BC, Rice, Penn State..not a murderers row of good teams there..luckily their opponents aren't much better.)

9. @Georgia -12 v Auburn: Georgia has the big advantage in motivation in this one, now that they have a clear path to the SEC East, and they still remember last year, when there was a near brawl at the end of their game with Auburn due to some dirty play. Georgia has quietly piled up some nice statistics this year...they are solid on both sides of the ball and are very balanced on offense. Auburn is still using Clint Moseley at QB, and although he performed ok vs ole Miss, he'll be facing a much better defense here, and will probably prove that he is "not the answer" at Qb for Auburn. We all know that Georgia will score on Auburn's leaky faucet defense...Moseley will have to engineer some points himself to keep up, and I don't think it happens. Public is all over Auburn as well.

10. @Florida State -9 v Miami: I think things are coming together for FSU. They are coming off some dominating defensive performances, and their offense has a total offense ranking that has reached 20 in the country. Miami continues to struggle on defense, ranked 93rd overall and 96th against the pass. Miami has been good on offense, but is still turnover prone, and due for a poor performance again. I think they are what we saw in that Thursday nighter against Virginia. FSU is on a roll, and I don't think Miami can score enough to keep up with FSU as long as that defense is motivated. Some key players for Miami got suspended this week also.

11. Washington +11.5 @USC: Since Sarkisian has been at Washington, the Dawgs have won and covered easily in his games against USC. Last year was an outright win as a 10 point dog at USC, the year before that they won outright as a 24 point dog. This year they are getting 11.5 again, and I really can't see the reasoning behind it. Both teams have strong offenses which will have clear edges against the respective defenses. This year however. Washington is playing for another bowl, while USC is playing out the string. Based on the success Sarkisian has had in this series so far, and on the strength of their offense, I think they will be in this one till the end.

12 @Arkansas -14 v Tennessee: This is a square public play, but I can't see how Tennessee is justifiable as only a 2TD dog here. Arkansas could possibly have that spread covered after 2 possessions. You'll probably have to buy this down from 14.5 by the time you get this, but I would go up to 17 on this one. Tennessee simply is not a good football team. They don't do anything even relatively well now that Tyler Bray is no longer playing QB. They can't run(116th), they can't pass, as they are on their 3rd QB. They don't stop the run very well, and they give up a lot of passing yards. Their coach is a buffoon who is woefully overmatched(especially by Petrino). Not a pretty picture. Their only chance is if Arkansas comes out asleep, which is a possibility given their big win last week against South Carolina. This should be a 38-14 type game.

13. @Stanford -3.5 v Oregon: This should be a great game, but I think in the end, the irresistible force that is Stanford will once again win out. Oregon has a tendency to play quite a bit worse on the road than they do at home, and this was the case the last time these two teed it up in Palo Alto. Stanford won that one 51-42 as a 6 point dog, and I think they'll have the upper hand in this one. Oregon has struggled stopping the run this year, and that's having played against a bunch of teams that don't really run it well. Stanford will be the best offense they have faced by far since LSU, and on the road, I think it will be a profound difference. Of course, Stanford will be facing their best offense as well, but their strength is stopping the run. We've also seen some shaky play rcently from Darron Thomas. I think Stanford will have a big edge in the defenses as well as the QB.

Others: It's a lot of points, but I think Clemson(-16.5) might beat the crap out of Wake. They've destroyed them the past 2 times they've played in Death Valley with much weaker teams, and Wake looks to have come back to earth. If it was around 14 it would have been a musing....Virginia is only laying 10 against Duke. They should be able to handle that rather easily based on the personnel, but Duke is a good road dog and I don't trust UVA to handle their business 3 weeks in a row...Normally I'm on the other side of this, but I think Rutgers(-7) should handle Army at Yankee Stadium. The things that give Rutgers trouble are not in play this week, and they have been very stout on defense. Mohammed Sanu will be the best player ont he field by far, he might be worth 7 points by himself....SMU (-8.5) should have absolutely no problem raining points on Navy, but Navy is such a good road dog and SMU such a terrible home favorite(1-8-1 under Jones) that I can't fully recommend it. I will be betting on SMU though. despite the contrary trends....For some crazy reason, I think Minnesota(+27) is going to give Wisconsin a game. They played Michigan State to a standstill last week.....Don't look now, but UCLA has a great shot of winning the Pac 12 South if they can get a win at Utah. Good matchups on both sides of the ball here...solid O for UCLA and D for Utah and terrible O for Utah and D for UCLA. End result is a standoff, so 7 points and UCLA probably has some value....That's it for now. Have a great week!!