Last week was a suckfest, 4-7, bringing the musings winning percentage down with a thud to about 54% (21-18). Man is that disappointing. The stated goal is 60%, which is now going to be very difficult to hit. I guess that's a pretty lofty goal...maybe we'll bring it down to 57%. Hell, we live under a socialist government anyway, why not change the rules as we go? If anyone has any questions about where I stand on this bailout situation, please refer to the comments of the Hon Sen Jim Bouton(R-Ky). You should be able to find them easily enough.
I could probably complain about a couple of the late bad beats among the musings last week, but I won't because for every bad beat there was a game that was obviously the wrong side. Liked both of the dogs tonight. As I write this, USC is coming back on Oregon St. At halftime, it was 21-0. OSU held a 224-73 yardage edge and a 17-3 first down edge. As it stands now, it's 21-14, and the yardage is at 235-224 OSU with a 18-11 FD edge. I guess we're seeing a comeback. I hope not because I snuck in a +1600(for 5 bucks) money line bet on the Beavs right under the gun. Obviously, I liked OSU tonight, +24, but a lot of good that does anyone now.
A quick rant. Is there any way that someone can gather all the NFL game officials together, give them a collective blast to the chops and explain to them that they are now forbidden to call any personal foul penalties that impact possession of the ball(i.e. in the Bears game last weekend) when they have no clue what actually happened in a scrum? In the Bears example, there was obviously a melee, caused undoubtedly by some uncouth behavior, likely from players on both teams. The referee, however, takes it upon himself to penalize only one team, drastically changing the result on the field as a result of something that had no bearing whatsoever on the actual scrimmaging. As we know, every meathead announcer will point out with lightning-fast certainty that "it's always the second guy who gets caught." Since every dullard in the world knows this to be true because we have all seen it happen a million times, aren't referees catching on that they probably missed something within the melee which led to the second guy "retaliating"? Either start paying fucking attention to the game so you might occasionally catch all parties, or stop making complete asses of yourselves by making a game changing call based on something you didn't even see the entirety of. Every person in that stadium knew that there was certainly a Tampa Bay player just as guilty as Charles Tillman in that scenario, yet only one penalty was called on the play. That cannot happen. From now on, referees should be forbidden to call a penalty on only one team in situations in which a melee has ensued. Then you won't have these "crafty instigators" trying to stir things up, as Trueblood gleefully admitted to after the game, because there wouldn't be any point to it. We also won't have referees looking like total buffoons, constantly getting fooled. Not that Tillman should have been stupid enough to give the referees any opportunity to make buffoons of themselves, of course.
OK. I just took a break to look in on this USC/Beavs game, USC has the ball deep in their own territory down 21-14 with 3 minutes left and Mark Sanchez, naturally, at the smallest smidgen of pressure, overthrows his receiver and gets picked. The DB returns the ball to the 2. USC has 1 timeout and there is 2:48 left. I immediately suggest that the Oregon St RB takes the handoff and dives to the line of scrimmage, forcing USC to take it's last timeout. One second down, do it again. On third down, try to score. By now, USC is down to under 1 minute, with no timeouts. So what does OSU do? Scores on the first play, taking 2 seconds off the clock, then clangs the Xpt. 27-14. If USC scores, (which they will undoubtedly do, probably almost immediately), gets an onside kick, and scores again, someone needs to be fired. It's a longshot, but it could still happen, and they had a chance to ice the game with only a modicum of reflection.
1. (Friday) @ Louisville -3 1/2 v UConn: I've had bad luck on the Friday games thus far, but for whatever reason, I feel compelled to go back to the well here. Louisville was very impressive last week against K State, a team that had looked impressive up until they played Louisville. Hunter Cantwell got himself on track in that game, and it appears that Louisville, under Ron English, is drastically improved on defense, especially against the run. SO far this year they've only surrendered 1.9 ypc on the ground, and that's against a couple decent outfits, as both K State and Kentucly could not run on them. UConn will be their biggest test in that regard. However, QB Tyler Lorenzen has been a nightmare throwing the ball, as his ghastly 1/6 ratio will attest. If they have to throw it, which I assume they will, they will be in grave danger of giving the Cards a short field. It also appears that Louisville has come up with a couple of playmakers in WR Doug Beaumont and RB Victor Anderson. UConn gave up yards consistently on their home field to Baylor, so I can see no reason why Louisville won't be able to do the same in Papa John's stadium. Louisville also has payback on their minds for getting screwed on that bogus punt return last year at UConn.
2. @Clemson -11 v Maryland: In most cases, I would expect this line to be somewhere around 18 or so, but because Maryland handled Cal a couple weeks ago, and since Clemson has thoroughly disappointed everyone with their cowardly play so far this year, this spread is at a manageable number. Maryland is on a nice 2 game winning streak, with the win over Cal and a comfortable win against Eastern Michigan last week. However, in those games, the Terps allowed 453 yards to Eastern Michigan and 461 against Cal. Offensively, they put some points up, but in the Cal game, most were due to shoddy play or turnovers by Cal, as they only gained 260 yards for the game. I think Clemson is a significantly better team, with some unrealized potential to be explosive. Good defenses have the ability to hang around with them, but this is not necessarily a good defense, and away from the friendly environs of College Park and the EMU defense, the Maryland offense will likely see a decline in production as well. In their other road game this year, they lost by 10 to MTSU, despite having their running game working and hitting on a couple big plays. The chances of either happening against Clemson are remote, since RB Scott is still banged up. I think this is the week that Clemson explodes like they're capable of, setting up more heartache in the coming weeks when it doesn't continue and they go back to being a bunch of gutless wonders.
3. Navy + 16 @ Wake Forest. We all know Wake's troubles as home favorites. They improved in that role last year, but failed to cover their last time out in this position against Ole MIss. Now that Kaipo is back under center and Coach Ken has rid himself of that poor excuse for an option QB Jarrod Parker, we can get back to tailing Navy, especially in cases like this, when they are catching significant points against a non-explosive offense. Navy is very hard to blow out because they consume so much clock, unless of course they play a rock headed idiot at QB who doesn't display the good judgment the Good Lord gave to an ant.
4. UAB +26 1/2 @South Carolina: Let's first be clear, UAB has one sorry defense. They haven't stopped a soul this year, and it's questionable whether they ever will again. However, offensively, they have been pretty good, showing good balance and an ability to toss it around a little bit if necessary. This week, South Carolina has suspended starting RB Mike Davis, and WR Kenny McKinley, easily their best player on offense, is doubtful, and likely to be held out until the Ole Miss game next week. South Carolina's lack of firepower on offense will make UAB's defensive shortcomings a little less evident, and with a half hearted effort, the Cock D will probably give up some points. South Carolina doesn't score enough to cover this big a number, especially with such uncertainty at QB and their two best players likely missing. If they shut out UAB they could cover, but unless UAB gets stopped on downs a bunch of times inside the 20, they'll put up some points.
5. Colorado +5 1/2 v Florida St: This game is in Jacksonville, so it isn't a true home game for the 'Noles, though they did beat Alabama here rather handily last year. It's probably a good thing too, since FSU fans certainly wouldn't take long to make their feelings known with a vengeance should a repeat of last week's absolute offensive debacle be evident. I will predict that long time whipping boy Drew Weatherford will be back out there for the Noles if the other two stiffs struggle. After watching a good portion of Florida St's game with wake last week, I can't imagine them putting together much of anything on offense. Both Qbs looked lost, Jimbo Fisher appeared headed for an insane asylum, and Bobby Bowden was dadgummin it up all night. Colorado, of course has some offensive talent, and is competent on defense. I can easily see a straight up win here for the Buffs, and certainly would suggest that FSU won't be able to mount enough of an attack to win going away.
6. @LSU -25 v Mississippi St: Sly Croom's bunch is bad. We've established that. At home they can occasionally play enough defense to stay in the game, but on the road, they are just not dong anything right, as last weeks blowout loss to Ga Tech indicates. As we have often surmised, the chances of them scoring a single point on LSU is about 50/50, and the yes 50 is tiptoe-ing toward the door. If LSU gets things going at all, and they have shown a very solid ability to run the ball on anyone this year, this game will end up 38-3.
7. Ole Miss +23 @Florida: This is just a lot of points for a team that has some good athletes, and has put together some decent performances this year. Florida is in a let down spot after the Tennessee victory, and Tebow and company just haven't put things together offensively. Perhaps this might be the week, but I think Ole Miss will keep this one close. Even in their best years, Florida plays a couple close tough home games.
8. Western Michigan - 4 1/2 @Temple: Again, back to the well fading Temple. This week the Owls face off with Western Michigan and QB Tim Hiller, he of the 14/3 ratio this year. Temple has received good QB play from Adam DeMichelle, but he got injured last week. The scattershot backup is one of these "athelete" types who struggled like crazy in Happy Valley during garbage time. I don't think Temple will have enough offense with the backup to hang with the Broncos this week.
9 @Toledo -20 v Florida INternational: Toledo piled up more than 600 yards on Fresno last week in an overtime loss. FlINt is in some trouble because teams generally play terrible in the Glass Bowl. I don't see the GPs being able to stop the Rockets, and FLInt is dead last, as usual in total offense. FIU is getting some consideration among bettors due to their sloppy game with USF, in which USF was looking ahead. Good line value here, because Toledo probably wins easily.
Others: I love the Illini, but I have never seen such a matchup as this one with Penn St. Never have I seen a game where one team has such an advantage in every conceivable category. Penn St has run it at will on everyone, Illinois has struggled to stop the run. Penn St has stopped the run, UI hasn't gotten their running game going. The two teams played last year, at Illinois, and Penn State outplayed them but lost due to the boneheaded play of QB Morelli, who is about the only guy that ISN'T back for Penn St. Now Penn St is better, Illinois is worse, the game is at Penn St, at night, and the Nittanies have ALL of the motivation. I have a feeling that the Illini are satisfied with themselves and pretty content with their lot in life coming off the Rose Bowl. They aren't anywhere near as hungry as Penn St is. The only reason that I'm not on this one like a cheap suit is because the line has gotten up to 16 1/2. If this for whatever reason drops to 14 or less, my advice would be to unload, work up another batch, and unload again........I have a feeling Ohio St(-18) gets healthy on the Goofers this week. With Terrelle Prior at the helm, OSU becomes more of a legitimate offensive outfit. Minny still has defensive problems, I suspect...Memphis is catching 2 at home against Arky St this week. While I have great admiration for Arky State's ability to outgain whoever they play, Memphis is a pretty good squad this year, especially on offense. If ASU can come in there and handle Memphis, they can certainly handle the Sun Belt this year. I don't see it though......Another hunch that Indiana sacks up and plays well at home with MSU coming off that Ball St debacle. Remember that MSU is coming off the ND win, so a letdown is possible. Kellen Lewis is tough to stop for everyone. I can see IU hanging within the 8, although not many of my degenerate bretheren can......Arkansas is getting 27 1/2 at Texas. Although they burned me to a crisp last week, I think they catch UT in a tough spot coming off two covers in a row. Again, I do not believe that Arkansas is this bad. Hopefully they'll show it this week...as long as they tell Casey Dick which color the opponent is wearing, they should have a better chance......Northwestern has been struggling more than usual offensively, especially Bacher, who has not gotten it going at all. Sutton appears ready to go, but so is Iowa, and they are not happy with their result from last week. They're laying 8, I think they'll cover that despite their conservative nature when leading. Houston might also catch East Carolina napping since they are much better than their record suggests.That's it for this week. Be good.
Friday, September 26, 2008
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Week 4 Musings
Week 3 ws a break even proposition. 4-4-4. I think that's by far the most pushes I've ever had in a week...really strange. I guess good job to the oddsmakers on that. Thanks for doing your job, assholes!Looking back on it, there weren't really any bad beats, just some occurences that you(I ) wouldn't expect, like Buffalo sleepwalking through their game with Temple, which they should have lost outright obviously. I actually got a push on the Central Michigan game that we had no business getting, since CMU got outclassed in that one. Poor Frank Solich. His Bobcats have sacked up 3 weeks in a row and have nothing to show for it other than a modicum of respect from degenerates like me, and the seven other guys in the country who actually have a pathetic enough existence to be paying attention to them. I guess South Florida's inability to hang on to a 14 point lead at home in the final 4 minutes was kind of a shitty deal, but they came back from a 20-3 defecit in the first half, so you can't really have too many qualms with that.
ok. Let's say you are a D-1 school in a BCS conference who has been a speedbag lately, but you're gettting better. North Carolina for example. You are looking to schedule future opponents, and want to put your team in good position for success in the nonconference, but are sensitive to criticism when it comes to filling your schedule up with a bunch of creampuffs. Ideally, you'd like to play a BCS conference team that you can beat, who is good now, but won't be as good in a couple years. GET WEST VIRGINIA ON YOUR FUTURE SCHEDULES RIGHT NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! If you don't mind intense B.O. and the coonskin caps, you can even go ahead and play them in Morgantown for more street cred. When Pat White leaves, this program with be a living, breathing, stench ridden debacle. Bill Stewart, village idiot emeritus, was recently given a 6 year extension. As a person who appreciates logic among those who are entrusted with any smidgen of authority, I am appalled that this half-wit could be given anything other than an immediate ticket to out of my faceville. Actually, I'm being harsh...what the hell do I care if a bunch of inbred hill-jackals want to hire one of their own? It's their business, and it will definitely provide some fodder for the musings, probably almost weekly. However, the fact of the matter is that it was a mind-numbing decision to extend this guy. To say that he is overmatched is like saying getting your nutsack caught in your zipper is somewhat annoying. And when I say overmatched, go ahead and pick a coach. Dan Hawkins, Skip Holtz, Les Miles, whoever coached K State back in the day, Bob Slattery(inside joke)...whoever. He's overmatched. Just read his quotes in postgame stories. Here's his quote after they got dominated by East Carolina:
"[To] the naysayers out there that want to ruin a guy's season after the first or second game, I'm not going to get all down in the dumps," coach Bill Stewart said. "You can't just put the old gold and blue on. ... You've got to play in the old gold and blue." Huh? To be honest...it's not really even worth it to get even any farther into this. We all can see it. Recruits are going to start realizing that they don't want to put ther futures in the hands of a dolt, and spend 4 years of their lives beating their heads against a wall just to watch thhemselves get hopelessly outschemed every week. There really isn't even all that much talent there after White leaves anyway. It's going to be a bad deal. After the ECU game, you could see it. Now after watching him make an ass of himself tonight by predictably bothing every decision possible down the stretch(thanks, by the way) he needs to be fired immediately. Of course, as evidenced by WVU's war with Dick Rod to get the money he owed them, they don't have the ability to just write off the contract, so he'll be there. They might lose 7 games this year. (USF, Auburn, @UConn, @Pitt and Cincy are still left). Like I said, get them on the schedule. They'll be the new Syracuse soon.
One other thing: Did I hear that Miami was crying about Urban Meyer kicking a FG in the last few seconds of their game with Flroda 2 weeks ago, which was awesome, by the way? Miami? Complaining about bad treatment from an opponent? Let's think about that one for awhile while harkening back to the glory days of yesteryear.
1. FRIDAY @UConn -12 v Baylor: There are a lot of people on Baylor here, as the line has moved from an opening number of 14. I'd assume the reason for that is in response to Baylor's success last week at the expense of another cesspool of a program at this juncture, Washington St. Any success against Wazzou should of course be taken with a grain of salt. Baylor now makes it's first foray on the road with a freshman "athelete" QB in a new system against a well coached, tough defense. We also know Baylor can't stop a soul on defense, and UCONN has had no trouble running the ball so far this year. Yes, Baylor probably has the atheletes to compete somewhat in this game, and Art Briles is a good coach, but they will not find their stride this week. Expect more of what happened to them in their home opener against Wake..some brilliance from the young QB, but an unhappy result at the end of the day. A Kirby Freeman sighting would mean even more fun.
2. @BYU -27 v Wyoming: It's really easy to pick this one, what with the absolute ass kicking BYU delivered to UCLA last week, but I can't resist Wyoming under coach Joe Glenn(he of about 2 more weeks of having a job) is 5-18 ATS in conference the past 3 years, and is 3-9 ATS on the road in the last 2. They were 17 point dogs 2 years ago in Provo and lost 55-7. Their offense is a joke..they couldn't move the ball with any regularity on Ohio, Air Froce or North Dakota St at home..now they go on the road to try to deal with BYU, who basically scores at will on anyone. Wyoming has no shot to compete in this one. Call off the dogs early...this one looks like a 49-3 ballgame.
3. San Jose St +8 1/2 @ Stanford: At this juncture, you can make a case that Stanford should not be signicantly favored against anyone. They got off to a good start this year with a nice effort against the Beavs, but counting that game, they have been statistically dominated in every game they have played. Tavita Pitchard throws like his first name suggests he would, that is weakly and girlish, and the running game is flimsy at best. SJSU comes in off a muscular effort against San Dego St, dominating them to the tune of a 476-146 yard advantage. The week before that, they hung with Nebraska on the stat sheet(359-318 yard advantage) if not on the scoreboard in a tough environment in Lincoln. They play good defense, and they have weapons on offense who can put points on the board in the running and passing game.. Stanford lacks firepower, so I don't see them covering a sizable spread. Very strong possibility of an outright winner for San Jose St here.
4. Eastern Michigan +21 1/2 @ Maryland: An ovious overreaction to the Maryland win at home against Cal last week. In case you didn't notice, Maryland got all the breaks in that one. They were thoroughly outgained, and did very little on offense after the first quarter. In addition, their one bright spot in that game, running back, Da'rel Scott, got hurt and won't be playing. This Maryland team cannot beat teams just by showing up, as their loss to MTSU 2 weeks ago will attest. EMU has a weak squad, but they have some talent on offense and might be able to get something going. I don't see any ability from Marylnd to blow anyone out, especially in a let down spot like this with the ACC opener coming next week. If Darius Heyward Bey catches 9 balls for 275 yards, maybe they cover, but otherwise, probably not.
5. @Auburn +2 1/2 v LSU: I realize that everyone is thoroughly unimpressed with Auburn's 3-2 taffy pull with Sly Croom's palsified bunch last week, but I am very suspiscious that Tuberville just mailed in the offense in this game so as not to spill the beans for LSU this week. Not that Les Miles would have noticed, but one of his coaching buddies probably would have called him and emailed him a playbook or something.. Had MIss St scored to take the lead or something(a laughable proposition considering they gained all of 116 yards for the game), Auburn probably would have opened it up, but they played it very close to the vest. They did, however show their strength on defense. Now LSU, who has played absolutely nobody, travels to Auburn to play a game in a place far superior teams to this one have lost. They are doing this with a brand new QB(a Harvard transfer no less) and with a coach who still wears diapers. No more Pelini to prop him up, by the way. Everyone in the world is expecting LSU to go in there and win, even though there is little doubt that they will struggle to score. I think Auburn will have enough new wrinkles to take this one, even though I am no fan of that program and their dickface of a coach.
7. @Ole Miss -7 v Vandy: Vandy comes in undefeated, a true credit to Bobby Johnson. Most people assumed coming into this year that Vandy would probaby end up with a goose egg in the conference win column. So far though, they have done extremely well, including taking a Thursday nighter at home aganst South Carolina. However, I think it's only a matter of time until their lack of a solid offense is really going to show up, and that will probably be this week. Now that Houston Nutt is in charge, Ole Miss is a legit outfit and he's got some talent. They probably should have beaten Wake on the road 2 weeks ago, and will almost certainly be able to put up some points on Vandy. Rice, for example outgained the 'Dores last week in Nashville. If Vandy hangs tough with Ole Miss here, more power to them, and I would absolutely love to see them go 4-0, but the talent difference is large, and the coaching advantage is small. I think Ole Miss gets at least a two score victory here.
8. @Georgia Tech -7 1/2 v Mississippi St: Speaking of Sly Croom's guys, did I mention how pathetic they have been on offense this year? I think people are impressed with this team because they were able to play Auburn to what what looked like a standstill, but as I mentioned, I think Auburn played a little possum in that game. What can't be disguised is the sickening level Miss St has played on offense...I'm getting redundant, I know. How do you go an entire game without cracking 120 total yards on your home field? Now they go on the road to play Georgia Tech, who is coming off two tough road games in which they proved their mettle on defense. The chances of Miss St having success on that defense are slim, and the chances that Ga Tech will be able to get their running game lathered up at home are pretty good in my opinion. Teams generally play much better defense at home than they do on the road, so we'll likely see Sly's guys give up a couple of long ones to Jonathan Dwyer while remaining in their doldrums on offense. I can see a 24-6 type game here..if Ga Tech avoid turnovers, maybe even more.
9. @Southern Miss -7 1/2 v Marshall: Laying points in Conference USA is always a very risky proposition, but I can see Marshall struggling in this one. They snuck by Memphis at home last week, but gave up big yardage in the passing game and got outgained. The week prior, they did an admirable job stopping PJ Hill up in Madison, but in the process gave up 300+ yards passing to Allen Evridge, a limited passer at best, who was also operating without his two top receivers, Travis Beckum being one of them. 51 unanswered points surrendered is ugly, regardless of how good your opponent is. Offensively, they have been average at best, and they travel to Hattiesberg to face Southern Miss, who has looked pretty good. They got a win on the road against Arky St, who previously had run all over their competition and hung on the road against Auburn. In their previous home game, they laid the wood to LaLa, which is better than Illinois can say. To me, it appears that Southern Miss will have too much on offense for Marshall in this one. Home field likely will make a big difference.
10. @UNLV -2 1/2 v Iowa St: More of a situational play here, as it is generally tough for a lower division BCS conference team to go on the road and win(see Maryland/MTSU 2 weeks ago) against a capable non-BCS opponent, especially when they are coming off an emotional road game against a rival last week. Iowa St played Iowa tough in Iowa City last week, but showed in that game that they really aren't ready for prime time. Now they have to regroup and go back on the road to play a UNLV team that is gaining confidence and absolutely believes that this game is watershed one for them. Last wek they won at Arizona St in a look ahead spot for the Sun Devils, but it wasn't really a fluke, as they held ASU's offense in check and hung around long enough to break through with a late score. I think Iowa St would have to bring their absolute best effort to have a chance at bringing home a win here, and I don't see that happening in this situation.
11. @Pitt +1 v Iowa: The public likes Iowa here, as the line has moved from Pitt's side over to Iowa's. I can understand that, as I agree that Wanny works hard to figure out ways to lose, but I think Pitt is looking at somewhat of a mirror image of itself here, ad maybe a team that isn't as capable as others would be at taking Wanny's gifts. Kirk Ferentz has turned into a gutless, whoops, I mean "conservative" coach on offense. Don't make mistakes, treat their collection of apparently basket case QB's with spongy gloves, etc. They also still haven't really played anyone. They ran it well on Iowa St last week, but Pitt will be more of a test defensively. Iowa actually has the talent at receiver to open things up, it just doesn't appear that Ferentz has the confidence in his team. I think making this team a favorite on the road against a decent opponent is a mistake at this juncture. I have a hard time seeing them pulling it off, as Pitt does have good talent on offense and should be fired up to give a better effort at home than they have against their previous opponents from the MAC.
12. @Arkansas +9 v Alabama: Arkansas obviously is still finding their way, as they almost embarrassingly lost both of their warm up games, but they pulled out victories, and the games were statistically not a close as the scores made them look. As expected, Petrino already has them doing well in the passing game, as Casey Dick has settled in as a thrower. You could actually see him improve late last year, and he has looked good so far this year. It's another situational spot, as Bama, by virtue of their beat down of a schitzophrenic and poorly coached Clemson team is highly ranked, and I would argue, overranked. They have a trip to Athens Georgia on deck next week and they are playing a team everyone in creation has picked for last in the SEC West, and has struggled in both of their previous games. However, it's still a road game in the SEC, against a team with good atheletes that can score points. Bama still struggles offensively in key spots when things get uncomfortable for JP Wilson. This is a dangerous game for Bama. Early start. Regional coverage only. Even if they play pretty well, I think they will have a hard time covering a two score spread.
Others........Wake is catching 4 1/2 at Florida St...even with the recent history of these two teams, I still yearn for more points in this spot, but I am absolutely not sold on FSU's QB situation as well as their offensive line, and their kicking game is in shambles. People like them because they destroyed their two D-1AA patsies. Wake is already battle tested..I think they'll emerge in this one, but I wish I could have 7....Ohio St returns home with their tails between their legs. They need to get Terrelle Pryor entrenched at QB now and take whatever lumps they need to take to get him ready, because they are not going to be an elite team until he leads them to great things. They are out of the MNC picture for sure at this point, as nobody will vote them back into position again, almost out of spite. If they go back to the same old tired crap, Troy will hang with them all day, as they can move the ball and slop around in the mud on D, and at a level a step higher than Ohio can. They're catching 21, so I can see them covering that line pretty easily......Why is Miami favored at A&M? I guess it's because A&M stinks, but Miami still hasn't proven they can do anything on offense. A FreshmanQB making his second start in a tough environment on a crap offense and they're favored? I don't think so. I'll take the 3 with A&M, maybe even 4 if the line keeps moving that way....The mother of all bad spots stares Fresno in the face this week. They travel across the country to Toledo coming off their self proclaimed "biggest game in program history". Definite let down spot, and Toledo is normally a tough place to play. To me, this seems like a game that should be played on a weeknight, but it's just an under the radar game on Saturday, so no real reason for Fresno to get jacked up. It's also the #1 most public game of the week, with 80% laying the 7 with Fresno. I'll go the other way as the situation is a horrible one for Fresno, and they have a habit of mailing it in after big disappoinments....I also have a hunch that UCLA(+2 1/2) will somehow come off the mat after that absolute deomlition at the hands of BYU. Arizona comes in off a bad loss themselves to New Mexico. I can't overstate the coaching mismatch here between Neuheisel/Chow and Mike Stoops and his collection of mouth breathers.....As I mentioned, Frank Solich needs a hug, so I'll call for his Bobcats to hang with Northwestern catching 11 in Evanston. That's it for this week. Good luck and good fortune to all.
ok. Let's say you are a D-1 school in a BCS conference who has been a speedbag lately, but you're gettting better. North Carolina for example. You are looking to schedule future opponents, and want to put your team in good position for success in the nonconference, but are sensitive to criticism when it comes to filling your schedule up with a bunch of creampuffs. Ideally, you'd like to play a BCS conference team that you can beat, who is good now, but won't be as good in a couple years. GET WEST VIRGINIA ON YOUR FUTURE SCHEDULES RIGHT NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! If you don't mind intense B.O. and the coonskin caps, you can even go ahead and play them in Morgantown for more street cred. When Pat White leaves, this program with be a living, breathing, stench ridden debacle. Bill Stewart, village idiot emeritus, was recently given a 6 year extension. As a person who appreciates logic among those who are entrusted with any smidgen of authority, I am appalled that this half-wit could be given anything other than an immediate ticket to out of my faceville. Actually, I'm being harsh...what the hell do I care if a bunch of inbred hill-jackals want to hire one of their own? It's their business, and it will definitely provide some fodder for the musings, probably almost weekly. However, the fact of the matter is that it was a mind-numbing decision to extend this guy. To say that he is overmatched is like saying getting your nutsack caught in your zipper is somewhat annoying. And when I say overmatched, go ahead and pick a coach. Dan Hawkins, Skip Holtz, Les Miles, whoever coached K State back in the day, Bob Slattery(inside joke)...whoever. He's overmatched. Just read his quotes in postgame stories. Here's his quote after they got dominated by East Carolina:
"[To] the naysayers out there that want to ruin a guy's season after the first or second game, I'm not going to get all down in the dumps," coach Bill Stewart said. "You can't just put the old gold and blue on. ... You've got to play in the old gold and blue." Huh? To be honest...it's not really even worth it to get even any farther into this. We all can see it. Recruits are going to start realizing that they don't want to put ther futures in the hands of a dolt, and spend 4 years of their lives beating their heads against a wall just to watch thhemselves get hopelessly outschemed every week. There really isn't even all that much talent there after White leaves anyway. It's going to be a bad deal. After the ECU game, you could see it. Now after watching him make an ass of himself tonight by predictably bothing every decision possible down the stretch(thanks, by the way) he needs to be fired immediately. Of course, as evidenced by WVU's war with Dick Rod to get the money he owed them, they don't have the ability to just write off the contract, so he'll be there. They might lose 7 games this year. (USF, Auburn, @UConn, @Pitt and Cincy are still left). Like I said, get them on the schedule. They'll be the new Syracuse soon.
One other thing: Did I hear that Miami was crying about Urban Meyer kicking a FG in the last few seconds of their game with Flroda 2 weeks ago, which was awesome, by the way? Miami? Complaining about bad treatment from an opponent? Let's think about that one for awhile while harkening back to the glory days of yesteryear.
1. FRIDAY @UConn -12 v Baylor: There are a lot of people on Baylor here, as the line has moved from an opening number of 14. I'd assume the reason for that is in response to Baylor's success last week at the expense of another cesspool of a program at this juncture, Washington St. Any success against Wazzou should of course be taken with a grain of salt. Baylor now makes it's first foray on the road with a freshman "athelete" QB in a new system against a well coached, tough defense. We also know Baylor can't stop a soul on defense, and UCONN has had no trouble running the ball so far this year. Yes, Baylor probably has the atheletes to compete somewhat in this game, and Art Briles is a good coach, but they will not find their stride this week. Expect more of what happened to them in their home opener against Wake..some brilliance from the young QB, but an unhappy result at the end of the day. A Kirby Freeman sighting would mean even more fun.
2. @BYU -27 v Wyoming: It's really easy to pick this one, what with the absolute ass kicking BYU delivered to UCLA last week, but I can't resist Wyoming under coach Joe Glenn(he of about 2 more weeks of having a job) is 5-18 ATS in conference the past 3 years, and is 3-9 ATS on the road in the last 2. They were 17 point dogs 2 years ago in Provo and lost 55-7. Their offense is a joke..they couldn't move the ball with any regularity on Ohio, Air Froce or North Dakota St at home..now they go on the road to try to deal with BYU, who basically scores at will on anyone. Wyoming has no shot to compete in this one. Call off the dogs early...this one looks like a 49-3 ballgame.
3. San Jose St +8 1/2 @ Stanford: At this juncture, you can make a case that Stanford should not be signicantly favored against anyone. They got off to a good start this year with a nice effort against the Beavs, but counting that game, they have been statistically dominated in every game they have played. Tavita Pitchard throws like his first name suggests he would, that is weakly and girlish, and the running game is flimsy at best. SJSU comes in off a muscular effort against San Dego St, dominating them to the tune of a 476-146 yard advantage. The week before that, they hung with Nebraska on the stat sheet(359-318 yard advantage) if not on the scoreboard in a tough environment in Lincoln. They play good defense, and they have weapons on offense who can put points on the board in the running and passing game.. Stanford lacks firepower, so I don't see them covering a sizable spread. Very strong possibility of an outright winner for San Jose St here.
4. Eastern Michigan +21 1/2 @ Maryland: An ovious overreaction to the Maryland win at home against Cal last week. In case you didn't notice, Maryland got all the breaks in that one. They were thoroughly outgained, and did very little on offense after the first quarter. In addition, their one bright spot in that game, running back, Da'rel Scott, got hurt and won't be playing. This Maryland team cannot beat teams just by showing up, as their loss to MTSU 2 weeks ago will attest. EMU has a weak squad, but they have some talent on offense and might be able to get something going. I don't see any ability from Marylnd to blow anyone out, especially in a let down spot like this with the ACC opener coming next week. If Darius Heyward Bey catches 9 balls for 275 yards, maybe they cover, but otherwise, probably not.
5. @Auburn +2 1/2 v LSU: I realize that everyone is thoroughly unimpressed with Auburn's 3-2 taffy pull with Sly Croom's palsified bunch last week, but I am very suspiscious that Tuberville just mailed in the offense in this game so as not to spill the beans for LSU this week. Not that Les Miles would have noticed, but one of his coaching buddies probably would have called him and emailed him a playbook or something.. Had MIss St scored to take the lead or something(a laughable proposition considering they gained all of 116 yards for the game), Auburn probably would have opened it up, but they played it very close to the vest. They did, however show their strength on defense. Now LSU, who has played absolutely nobody, travels to Auburn to play a game in a place far superior teams to this one have lost. They are doing this with a brand new QB(a Harvard transfer no less) and with a coach who still wears diapers. No more Pelini to prop him up, by the way. Everyone in the world is expecting LSU to go in there and win, even though there is little doubt that they will struggle to score. I think Auburn will have enough new wrinkles to take this one, even though I am no fan of that program and their dickface of a coach.
7. @Ole Miss -7 v Vandy: Vandy comes in undefeated, a true credit to Bobby Johnson. Most people assumed coming into this year that Vandy would probaby end up with a goose egg in the conference win column. So far though, they have done extremely well, including taking a Thursday nighter at home aganst South Carolina. However, I think it's only a matter of time until their lack of a solid offense is really going to show up, and that will probably be this week. Now that Houston Nutt is in charge, Ole Miss is a legit outfit and he's got some talent. They probably should have beaten Wake on the road 2 weeks ago, and will almost certainly be able to put up some points on Vandy. Rice, for example outgained the 'Dores last week in Nashville. If Vandy hangs tough with Ole Miss here, more power to them, and I would absolutely love to see them go 4-0, but the talent difference is large, and the coaching advantage is small. I think Ole Miss gets at least a two score victory here.
8. @Georgia Tech -7 1/2 v Mississippi St: Speaking of Sly Croom's guys, did I mention how pathetic they have been on offense this year? I think people are impressed with this team because they were able to play Auburn to what what looked like a standstill, but as I mentioned, I think Auburn played a little possum in that game. What can't be disguised is the sickening level Miss St has played on offense...I'm getting redundant, I know. How do you go an entire game without cracking 120 total yards on your home field? Now they go on the road to play Georgia Tech, who is coming off two tough road games in which they proved their mettle on defense. The chances of Miss St having success on that defense are slim, and the chances that Ga Tech will be able to get their running game lathered up at home are pretty good in my opinion. Teams generally play much better defense at home than they do on the road, so we'll likely see Sly's guys give up a couple of long ones to Jonathan Dwyer while remaining in their doldrums on offense. I can see a 24-6 type game here..if Ga Tech avoid turnovers, maybe even more.
9. @Southern Miss -7 1/2 v Marshall: Laying points in Conference USA is always a very risky proposition, but I can see Marshall struggling in this one. They snuck by Memphis at home last week, but gave up big yardage in the passing game and got outgained. The week prior, they did an admirable job stopping PJ Hill up in Madison, but in the process gave up 300+ yards passing to Allen Evridge, a limited passer at best, who was also operating without his two top receivers, Travis Beckum being one of them. 51 unanswered points surrendered is ugly, regardless of how good your opponent is. Offensively, they have been average at best, and they travel to Hattiesberg to face Southern Miss, who has looked pretty good. They got a win on the road against Arky St, who previously had run all over their competition and hung on the road against Auburn. In their previous home game, they laid the wood to LaLa, which is better than Illinois can say. To me, it appears that Southern Miss will have too much on offense for Marshall in this one. Home field likely will make a big difference.
10. @UNLV -2 1/2 v Iowa St: More of a situational play here, as it is generally tough for a lower division BCS conference team to go on the road and win(see Maryland/MTSU 2 weeks ago) against a capable non-BCS opponent, especially when they are coming off an emotional road game against a rival last week. Iowa St played Iowa tough in Iowa City last week, but showed in that game that they really aren't ready for prime time. Now they have to regroup and go back on the road to play a UNLV team that is gaining confidence and absolutely believes that this game is watershed one for them. Last wek they won at Arizona St in a look ahead spot for the Sun Devils, but it wasn't really a fluke, as they held ASU's offense in check and hung around long enough to break through with a late score. I think Iowa St would have to bring their absolute best effort to have a chance at bringing home a win here, and I don't see that happening in this situation.
11. @Pitt +1 v Iowa: The public likes Iowa here, as the line has moved from Pitt's side over to Iowa's. I can understand that, as I agree that Wanny works hard to figure out ways to lose, but I think Pitt is looking at somewhat of a mirror image of itself here, ad maybe a team that isn't as capable as others would be at taking Wanny's gifts. Kirk Ferentz has turned into a gutless, whoops, I mean "conservative" coach on offense. Don't make mistakes, treat their collection of apparently basket case QB's with spongy gloves, etc. They also still haven't really played anyone. They ran it well on Iowa St last week, but Pitt will be more of a test defensively. Iowa actually has the talent at receiver to open things up, it just doesn't appear that Ferentz has the confidence in his team. I think making this team a favorite on the road against a decent opponent is a mistake at this juncture. I have a hard time seeing them pulling it off, as Pitt does have good talent on offense and should be fired up to give a better effort at home than they have against their previous opponents from the MAC.
12. @Arkansas +9 v Alabama: Arkansas obviously is still finding their way, as they almost embarrassingly lost both of their warm up games, but they pulled out victories, and the games were statistically not a close as the scores made them look. As expected, Petrino already has them doing well in the passing game, as Casey Dick has settled in as a thrower. You could actually see him improve late last year, and he has looked good so far this year. It's another situational spot, as Bama, by virtue of their beat down of a schitzophrenic and poorly coached Clemson team is highly ranked, and I would argue, overranked. They have a trip to Athens Georgia on deck next week and they are playing a team everyone in creation has picked for last in the SEC West, and has struggled in both of their previous games. However, it's still a road game in the SEC, against a team with good atheletes that can score points. Bama still struggles offensively in key spots when things get uncomfortable for JP Wilson. This is a dangerous game for Bama. Early start. Regional coverage only. Even if they play pretty well, I think they will have a hard time covering a two score spread.
Others........Wake is catching 4 1/2 at Florida St...even with the recent history of these two teams, I still yearn for more points in this spot, but I am absolutely not sold on FSU's QB situation as well as their offensive line, and their kicking game is in shambles. People like them because they destroyed their two D-1AA patsies. Wake is already battle tested..I think they'll emerge in this one, but I wish I could have 7....Ohio St returns home with their tails between their legs. They need to get Terrelle Pryor entrenched at QB now and take whatever lumps they need to take to get him ready, because they are not going to be an elite team until he leads them to great things. They are out of the MNC picture for sure at this point, as nobody will vote them back into position again, almost out of spite. If they go back to the same old tired crap, Troy will hang with them all day, as they can move the ball and slop around in the mud on D, and at a level a step higher than Ohio can. They're catching 21, so I can see them covering that line pretty easily......Why is Miami favored at A&M? I guess it's because A&M stinks, but Miami still hasn't proven they can do anything on offense. A FreshmanQB making his second start in a tough environment on a crap offense and they're favored? I don't think so. I'll take the 3 with A&M, maybe even 4 if the line keeps moving that way....The mother of all bad spots stares Fresno in the face this week. They travel across the country to Toledo coming off their self proclaimed "biggest game in program history". Definite let down spot, and Toledo is normally a tough place to play. To me, this seems like a game that should be played on a weeknight, but it's just an under the radar game on Saturday, so no real reason for Fresno to get jacked up. It's also the #1 most public game of the week, with 80% laying the 7 with Fresno. I'll go the other way as the situation is a horrible one for Fresno, and they have a habit of mailing it in after big disappoinments....I also have a hunch that UCLA(+2 1/2) will somehow come off the mat after that absolute deomlition at the hands of BYU. Arizona comes in off a bad loss themselves to New Mexico. I can't overstate the coaching mismatch here between Neuheisel/Chow and Mike Stoops and his collection of mouth breathers.....As I mentioned, Frank Solich needs a hug, so I'll call for his Bobcats to hang with Northwestern catching 11 in Evanston. That's it for this week. Good luck and good fortune to all.
Week 3 Musings
After week 2, we stand at 13-7 on the numbered musings for the year, a 65% clip. The stated goal, as it is every year is 60%, which is a lofty number to get to. The last couple of years, we were in the neighborhood up until the last couple of weeks, where we settled in at the 58% area. Nothing to sneeze at, but we'll keep trying to get to 60%, which is statshark/accuscore territory. Last week, we could have probably snagged a couple more victories if not for some bullshit. First of all, Coach Numatiolonolo or whatever the hell his name is at Navy needs to get my buddy Kaipo back under center quickly. The QB they used last week, Jarrod Bryant, I think, made a complete jackass of himself on Friday night trying to run the triple option. Navy QBs have always been adept at making the correct reads in the TO, pounding the FB when necessary and pitching to the fleet wingbacks at the right moment. Also, keep in mind that they now have a bonafide star in RB Shun White, who, unlike most previous Navy backs, has the ability to break tackles and line up in a power I if necessary. Bryant, however chose several kamikaze dives into the chest of the Ball St nose tackle rather than pitching it to White, both in the red zone in the first half and during almost the entire 4th Q. It resulted in 34 carries for Bryant, not what Navy, or Pete LaVette or any chump unlucky enough to bet on this guy would ever want. It led to only 23 points and a cover failure by the Middies despite the fact that BSU had no chance to stop a well-executed option. So lets all extend a big collective middle finger to Jarrod Bryant and hope he gets hit by cement truck, or at least fails to find his way onto the field for the rest of the season.
We also got unlucky that UConn decided the endzone was mined, and better attacked via the Field Goal. Whatever.
I also must report that the chances of the musings being free of typos or grammatical errors are pretty slim this week, since my brain exploded while I was trying to handicap the ND/Michigan game. The goal when handicapping these games is to find some positives and negatives on both sides, but hell ifI can find any positives for either one of these fiascoes. If I had to pick one I guess I'd have to go with ND, since they have the edge in QB play and are playing at home. I just can't see Michigan's QBs having much success at all on the road, even against Coach Front-butt and his sissy boys.
On to this week:
1. FRIDAY @South Florida -3 v Kansas: So far I've been on both of these teams a total of 3 times in two weeks. Kansas covered last week, but they have had an alarmingly difficult time running the ball effectively against some legitimately brutal competition. FIU and La Tech both held their running game completely in check, and now the Jayhawks have to travel to the heat and humidity of Tampa and deal with a very good team in a tough environment. The reason they've struggled to run it has everything to do with their line, which features two freshmen at the tackle positions. One of the tackles will have to block USF wildman George Selvie, the nation's leading returning sacker. They jury is still out on the KU defense as well, as they have played no offensive talent yet this year. Unless Todd Reesing has a superhuman effort, I can't see KU staying all that close in this one. USF will be whipped into a frenzy in this national TV atmosphere, and they are the kind of team you do not want to deal with when they are whipped into a frenzy.
2. ALSO Friday @Baylor -2 v Washington St. This game was moved to Friday night due to the coming havoc of Hurricane Ike. I'm troubled by this decision because it has led to me losing 5 1/2 points of line value on this game, since I jumped on it earlier this week when Baylor was a 3 1/2 point underdog, and when the game was rescheduled, my bet was canceled. To say that he early line was a bad line is like saying they had some rain when Noah built the ark. In case you didn't notice, Washington St had a rough time with Cal last weekend at home. We've gone over the concept of "village idiot" coaches before, but Wazzou is the latest example of the biggest danger of finding yourself with one of these meatheads at the helm of your program. It's the aftermath. It's the complete wasteland your program becomes when the scourge is eradicated and you're left with the mess. "You" in this case is new WSU coach Paul Wulff, who actually might have some VA tendencies himself. Anyway, getting back to the Cal game, this wasn't just a blowout, this was Sherman vs Atlanta. Mike Tyson Vs Marvis Frazier. The Headless Horseman vs Ichabod Crane. You get the picture. 66-3. 505-167 in total yards. Javid Best ran for 200 yards in basically the first half on 12 carries. Gary Rogers, the WSU QB has looked as bad as humanly possible. Their offense was so bad, they trotted out all three of their helpless quarterbacks with no success. It's a bad scene in Pullman. Now they travel to Waco to play Baylor, no juggernaut themselves. However, they improved throughout the game in their opener against Wake when they reversed the cataclysmic decision to start all time buffoon Kirby Freeman at QB and went with the athletic Robert Griffin. They got some confidence by blowing out a 1-AA opponent last week, and should be ready to take care of business this week. I think Art Briles is settling in, and expect him to put the wood to Wulff in the coaching matchup here. To expect Washington St to be anything close to a favorite on the road when they have looked as bad as they have indicates that the past reputation of the programs has influenced this line. Yeah, Baylor as a favorite seems pretty questionable, but this WSU team, with it's tandem inability to move the ball or stop anyone, can't be expected to compete on the road with anyone, and that certainly includes a Kirby Freeman-free Baylor team.
3. @Buffalo -6 v Temple: A recent phenomenon in college football linesmaking is the overreaction when traditional doormats get some momentum and actually start competing with people. When Army got Bobby Ross as a coach, after about the 3rd or 4th game, you started to see the Cadets being tagged with short lines on the road, being favored at home, etc. And would be handicappers(myself included in some cases) would be all over them, touting Army in an attempt to look smarter than everyone else. Army would then lose, or get blasted, and the same thing would happen the next week. This is now happeneing with Temple. They have all of their starters back from last year, when they won a couple games and actually competed. They are, however, getting to much respect, and that began last week when they were only a TD underdog to UConn. Now we all know that UConn squaeaked that game out in OT, but Temple was lucky to even be in that game, as UConn did everything they could including INTs and fumbles in the end zone on more than one occasion. Now Temple travels to Buffalo, an actual legitimate improved team worthy of the new consideration. Temple has been outgained by Army and mostly dominated by UConn in it's two games. Meanwhile, Buffalo blew out a previously explosive UTEP team and played Pitt to a standstill on the road. Last year, these two teams matched up in Philly, and Buffalo slapped them around in a 42-7 game with a 414-141 yardage edge. Temple is getting too much respect here. Buffalo rolls.
4. Georgia -7 @South Carolina: This one is painful for me to be on, since it's a highly public side..I think 75% are on this side at wagerline, but I really am in agreement with the unwashed masses on this one. It's time to start facing facts. The OBC is overrated. He's had 4 years to get his shit together at South Carolina, and still doesn't have a signal caller he can depend on. All of his QBs are terribly mistake prone. There is very little doubt that whoever lines up under center will make at least a couple boneheaded decisions, and they cannot afford that in this game. Being at home might actually be a detriment here, as the natives are restless coming off that Vandy implosion. South Carolina is going to struggle mightily in their attempts to score on Georgia in any case, but now that their top playmaker WR Kenny McKinley is out, or will be severely limited, it wil become almost impossible for them to get anything going. The flip side is that South Carolina is rumored to have a very good defense, and that might be true, but I'm skeptical, as every team they faced with a pulse last year let them up. I have a feeling they'll be exposed as well by the Dawg attack. The momentum is all negative for the Cocks, and I can envision a thorough beatdown here. Keep in mind that Georgia, after being heaped with praise in the preseason, has been relegated back to afterthought status, and my guess is tht they aren't too happy about that. They also lost at home to USC last year, so the folks in Columbia definitely have heir attention. Unless tHE Cocks get all the breaks and play completely out of their gourds, they are going to have a rough time in this one.
5. Central Michigan -3 @Ohio U: Every year seems to be the same drill for CMU. They play some vicious competition early, get their heads handed to them, then settle into their place as the best team in the MAC. This line is short based on overreactions from last week. It's true that Ohio has played admirably in their first two games, traveling all the way out to Laramie Wyoming and giving Wyoming a tussle, and then turned in their gutsy performance last week in Columbus. CMU got pasted in Athens, GA, although they hung in for awhile. The truth is that CMU is a significantly better team than Ohio, especially on offense. I think it might be asking too much for the Bobcats to return home after two tough losses and beat a team like CMU. I have a feeling Ohio will crash to earth, especially if the starting QB Theo Scott can't go.
6. Houston -2 V Air Force in Dallas: So far Air Force has looked very good in it's two games, including a 23-3 win at Wyoming last week. A closer look at that game, however shows that Wyoming lost 4 fumbles, and that Air Force actually struggled running the ball most of the game. We already know that Wyoming doesn't have as much as was previously thought, so this win doesn't look as impressive after some close inspection. AF had a nice year last year, but lost all of their skill guys and there is some question as to whether they guys in place can get it done, including QB Shea Smith, who looked terrible in their bowl game last year when he was pressed into action. If they can't move it on Houston, that will be telling, because judging from their defensive performance against Oklahoma St last week, they are going to struggle on defense this year. However, as bad as they will struggle on defense, they will probably be that good on offense. They scored at will on Okie St last week in the 56-37 loss, and have good players back from a very good offense last year, including QB Case Keenum. I think this will be the game that Air Force gets exposed for their inexperience and lack of skill on offense. I don't think they'll be able to keep up with Houston's offense. The change in venue brought the spread down to an inconsequential number, and I definitely think that Houston is the likely winner in this one.
7. Iowa St +14 @Iowa: Get the 14 quick, because it's 13 1/2 in some spots. Iowa has looked good so far this year, but that has been against Maine and Florida International, so there isn't much we can go off of there. Iowa St also comes in 2-0, and is coming off a win over the Hawkeyes last year. Iowa still doesn't have their QB situation figured out, and is very inexperienced in the running game. Also, Iowa St has covered in this series in 9 out of the last 10 years. For some reason, they have Iowa's number. ISU's offense has improved, and they got appreciably better as the year went on. Iowa should obviously be the favorite in this one, but not 2 TD's.
8. Oregon -8 @Purdue: I am really not sold on Purdue this year. It's true that Curtis Painter is one of the better QBs in the conference, but their defense looks weak, and they have issues at the receiver position. This play is based more on a feeling than anything else, as I just can't see the Boilers sacking up and turning in a good performance against a quality opponent like Oregon who has not been stopped on a drive yet this year. Their defense is also very good, especially in the secondary. Purdue might be able to hang for awhile early, but I don't see them representing for the Big Ten against one of the Pac 10's elite.
9. SMU +36 1/2 @ Texas Tech: I realize that SMU has not looked very good thus far, especially on defense, but Good Lord, 36 1/2 points? I think that June Jones can muster up some points in this one, as TT's defense has struggled in both of their games this year, giving up almost 500 yards to Nevada last week, in a game they easily could have lost, and giving up 27 points to E Washington. There have also been some rumblings that Graham Harrell has looked somewhat lost so far this year since a #2 receiver behind Crabtree has not yet emerged. I suppose it's possible that TT breaks out and hangs 70 on SMU this week, but I don't think SMU is that bad of a squad. They'll lose, but I would find it difficult to think that they can't stay within 5 TDs.
10 USC -whatever v Ohio St: I'm sorry. I hate to do this, but USC is going to run Ohio St out of the stadium. USC is going to want to leave no doubt, hang half a hundred, whatever. Not that I think USC can roll all over Ohio St on offense, but I am damn sure that they are going to absolutely dominate Ohio St on defense. The fact is that Todd Boeckman has not had a good game since before the Illinois game last year. The speed of the USC defense will overwhelm Ohio St, who has shown a pedestrian offense . Keep in mind the common opponent: Illinois. How did the Illini fare against these two teams? One, they physically handled, the other...well, we know what happened. I just have a hard time coming up with a scenario in which Ohio St can move the ball on these guys, Beanie Wells or no Beanie Wells. Even if Ohio St plays well, theyre still likely to give up 24-27 points, and I can't see OSU getting much more than about 10 points in this one at the most. Again, I think USC has this circled as the game of the year, since their conference schedule is weak, and OSU will get their best effort. I'm not sure that there are many teams that can handle USC's best effort in a big game like this in the Colosseum, but I can guarantee you that Ohio St, at this point, is not one of them. Another Big Ten team goes out there and gets blasted.
11. MTSU +18 @Kentucky: Kentucky hasn't really been tested yet this season, but this is a spread that should be reserved for the Kentucky team from last year. The one that had some weapons on offense. This Kentucky squad is ok on offense, but does not have the firepower to cover a significant spread against a decent squad like MTSU, who last week handled Maryland rather easily. It's true that Kentucky won easily at Louisville in week 1, but that was more a result of Louisville hurting itself than Kentucky doing anything outstanding. If Kentucky doesn't bring their A game, MTSU will give them all they can handle, as they have a competent offense that should be able to put up some numbers on Kentucky if they aren't careful.
12 Western Kentucky +28 @ Alabama: I bet against Bama last week, since they were coming into an obvious letdown spot, and because they almost never cover as a home favorite, but I didn't make it a musing because I was completely in the dark about how good or bad Tulane might be. New coaching staff, best player gone, etc. Well, Tulane went in to Tuscaloosa and dominated Alabama in the box score, just not on the scoreboard due to some big plays. The inability to cover at home, mortal beatdown of Clemson in week one notwithstanding, remains for the Tide. Western Kentucky is in their first year in the Sun Belt, but they have been a decent squad in 1-AA in recent years. Alabama just isn't set up offensively to blow people away, and I think the trend continues here in this one.
Others: To be honest, there are a lot of games I like this week...it was hard to narrow them down. I think in most cases, it's unlikely that a team can generally isnt very good can go on the road and give solid performances two weeks in a row. That's why I like San Jose St (-6)to handle San Diego St at home. SJSU plyed Nebraska to a standstill last week, and comes home to face an Aztec team that looked good in South Bend. Lots of teams do that lately..and there is something to be said about the adrenaline of playing in front of TD Jesus. Now they return to Cali to play a team that still has an inferiority complex to them and beat them soundly last year. Letdown time for the Aztecs.....UConn is laying 11 at home to Virginia. I think Uva stinks, and their QB is out on suspension so they will be using a green youngster under center, but Uconn can't get the ball in the endzone. Their QB Lorenzen has a 0-4 ratio in games against Temple and Hofstra. I have to think Virginia has better defenses than those two, and actually did a decent job of stopping USC's run on a per carry basis. If they can muster 10 points, I would think they would cover that spread......ECU is in the ultimate letdown spot on the road at Tulane, laying 13. Yeah, that's the same Tulane team that held Bama to 172 total yards and outgained them by 146 in Tuscaloosa. It definitely sets up as an interesting situation. ECU is too good to lose here, but they could be in for a tussle......Until Florida Atlantic proves they can hang with a quality opponent on the road, I'm going to fade them at spreads under 20. That's the case when they travel to play a good Michigan St team catching 17 1/2......I think Fresno is a tad bit overrated after seeing what happened to Rutgers last night. I think they'll have a hard time stopping Wisconsin's running attack, and I think they'll struggle more than people think trying to move it on the Badgers. Wisconsin should win this one.....I also wouldn't be surprised if Clemson sleepwalks through their game with NC State and finds themselves in a tight one late. They are a huge disappointment so far.....Akron is catching 7 at home against Ball St. Perhaps another letdown spot here for Nad St coming off a fortunate win over Navy. Akron has looked pretty good on offense in both of their games, so I think Ball St has a good chance of dropping this one outright if they aren't clicking completely on offense....Well, that's about it for this week. Hopefully, we'll all prosper. Take care and pound, pound, pound.
We also got unlucky that UConn decided the endzone was mined, and better attacked via the Field Goal. Whatever.
I also must report that the chances of the musings being free of typos or grammatical errors are pretty slim this week, since my brain exploded while I was trying to handicap the ND/Michigan game. The goal when handicapping these games is to find some positives and negatives on both sides, but hell ifI can find any positives for either one of these fiascoes. If I had to pick one I guess I'd have to go with ND, since they have the edge in QB play and are playing at home. I just can't see Michigan's QBs having much success at all on the road, even against Coach Front-butt and his sissy boys.
On to this week:
1. FRIDAY @South Florida -3 v Kansas: So far I've been on both of these teams a total of 3 times in two weeks. Kansas covered last week, but they have had an alarmingly difficult time running the ball effectively against some legitimately brutal competition. FIU and La Tech both held their running game completely in check, and now the Jayhawks have to travel to the heat and humidity of Tampa and deal with a very good team in a tough environment. The reason they've struggled to run it has everything to do with their line, which features two freshmen at the tackle positions. One of the tackles will have to block USF wildman George Selvie, the nation's leading returning sacker. They jury is still out on the KU defense as well, as they have played no offensive talent yet this year. Unless Todd Reesing has a superhuman effort, I can't see KU staying all that close in this one. USF will be whipped into a frenzy in this national TV atmosphere, and they are the kind of team you do not want to deal with when they are whipped into a frenzy.
2. ALSO Friday @Baylor -2 v Washington St. This game was moved to Friday night due to the coming havoc of Hurricane Ike. I'm troubled by this decision because it has led to me losing 5 1/2 points of line value on this game, since I jumped on it earlier this week when Baylor was a 3 1/2 point underdog, and when the game was rescheduled, my bet was canceled. To say that he early line was a bad line is like saying they had some rain when Noah built the ark. In case you didn't notice, Washington St had a rough time with Cal last weekend at home. We've gone over the concept of "village idiot" coaches before, but Wazzou is the latest example of the biggest danger of finding yourself with one of these meatheads at the helm of your program. It's the aftermath. It's the complete wasteland your program becomes when the scourge is eradicated and you're left with the mess. "You" in this case is new WSU coach Paul Wulff, who actually might have some VA tendencies himself. Anyway, getting back to the Cal game, this wasn't just a blowout, this was Sherman vs Atlanta. Mike Tyson Vs Marvis Frazier. The Headless Horseman vs Ichabod Crane. You get the picture. 66-3. 505-167 in total yards. Javid Best ran for 200 yards in basically the first half on 12 carries. Gary Rogers, the WSU QB has looked as bad as humanly possible. Their offense was so bad, they trotted out all three of their helpless quarterbacks with no success. It's a bad scene in Pullman. Now they travel to Waco to play Baylor, no juggernaut themselves. However, they improved throughout the game in their opener against Wake when they reversed the cataclysmic decision to start all time buffoon Kirby Freeman at QB and went with the athletic Robert Griffin. They got some confidence by blowing out a 1-AA opponent last week, and should be ready to take care of business this week. I think Art Briles is settling in, and expect him to put the wood to Wulff in the coaching matchup here. To expect Washington St to be anything close to a favorite on the road when they have looked as bad as they have indicates that the past reputation of the programs has influenced this line. Yeah, Baylor as a favorite seems pretty questionable, but this WSU team, with it's tandem inability to move the ball or stop anyone, can't be expected to compete on the road with anyone, and that certainly includes a Kirby Freeman-free Baylor team.
3. @Buffalo -6 v Temple: A recent phenomenon in college football linesmaking is the overreaction when traditional doormats get some momentum and actually start competing with people. When Army got Bobby Ross as a coach, after about the 3rd or 4th game, you started to see the Cadets being tagged with short lines on the road, being favored at home, etc. And would be handicappers(myself included in some cases) would be all over them, touting Army in an attempt to look smarter than everyone else. Army would then lose, or get blasted, and the same thing would happen the next week. This is now happeneing with Temple. They have all of their starters back from last year, when they won a couple games and actually competed. They are, however, getting to much respect, and that began last week when they were only a TD underdog to UConn. Now we all know that UConn squaeaked that game out in OT, but Temple was lucky to even be in that game, as UConn did everything they could including INTs and fumbles in the end zone on more than one occasion. Now Temple travels to Buffalo, an actual legitimate improved team worthy of the new consideration. Temple has been outgained by Army and mostly dominated by UConn in it's two games. Meanwhile, Buffalo blew out a previously explosive UTEP team and played Pitt to a standstill on the road. Last year, these two teams matched up in Philly, and Buffalo slapped them around in a 42-7 game with a 414-141 yardage edge. Temple is getting too much respect here. Buffalo rolls.
4. Georgia -7 @South Carolina: This one is painful for me to be on, since it's a highly public side..I think 75% are on this side at wagerline, but I really am in agreement with the unwashed masses on this one. It's time to start facing facts. The OBC is overrated. He's had 4 years to get his shit together at South Carolina, and still doesn't have a signal caller he can depend on. All of his QBs are terribly mistake prone. There is very little doubt that whoever lines up under center will make at least a couple boneheaded decisions, and they cannot afford that in this game. Being at home might actually be a detriment here, as the natives are restless coming off that Vandy implosion. South Carolina is going to struggle mightily in their attempts to score on Georgia in any case, but now that their top playmaker WR Kenny McKinley is out, or will be severely limited, it wil become almost impossible for them to get anything going. The flip side is that South Carolina is rumored to have a very good defense, and that might be true, but I'm skeptical, as every team they faced with a pulse last year let them up. I have a feeling they'll be exposed as well by the Dawg attack. The momentum is all negative for the Cocks, and I can envision a thorough beatdown here. Keep in mind that Georgia, after being heaped with praise in the preseason, has been relegated back to afterthought status, and my guess is tht they aren't too happy about that. They also lost at home to USC last year, so the folks in Columbia definitely have heir attention. Unless tHE Cocks get all the breaks and play completely out of their gourds, they are going to have a rough time in this one.
5. Central Michigan -3 @Ohio U: Every year seems to be the same drill for CMU. They play some vicious competition early, get their heads handed to them, then settle into their place as the best team in the MAC. This line is short based on overreactions from last week. It's true that Ohio has played admirably in their first two games, traveling all the way out to Laramie Wyoming and giving Wyoming a tussle, and then turned in their gutsy performance last week in Columbus. CMU got pasted in Athens, GA, although they hung in for awhile. The truth is that CMU is a significantly better team than Ohio, especially on offense. I think it might be asking too much for the Bobcats to return home after two tough losses and beat a team like CMU. I have a feeling Ohio will crash to earth, especially if the starting QB Theo Scott can't go.
6. Houston -2 V Air Force in Dallas: So far Air Force has looked very good in it's two games, including a 23-3 win at Wyoming last week. A closer look at that game, however shows that Wyoming lost 4 fumbles, and that Air Force actually struggled running the ball most of the game. We already know that Wyoming doesn't have as much as was previously thought, so this win doesn't look as impressive after some close inspection. AF had a nice year last year, but lost all of their skill guys and there is some question as to whether they guys in place can get it done, including QB Shea Smith, who looked terrible in their bowl game last year when he was pressed into action. If they can't move it on Houston, that will be telling, because judging from their defensive performance against Oklahoma St last week, they are going to struggle on defense this year. However, as bad as they will struggle on defense, they will probably be that good on offense. They scored at will on Okie St last week in the 56-37 loss, and have good players back from a very good offense last year, including QB Case Keenum. I think this will be the game that Air Force gets exposed for their inexperience and lack of skill on offense. I don't think they'll be able to keep up with Houston's offense. The change in venue brought the spread down to an inconsequential number, and I definitely think that Houston is the likely winner in this one.
7. Iowa St +14 @Iowa: Get the 14 quick, because it's 13 1/2 in some spots. Iowa has looked good so far this year, but that has been against Maine and Florida International, so there isn't much we can go off of there. Iowa St also comes in 2-0, and is coming off a win over the Hawkeyes last year. Iowa still doesn't have their QB situation figured out, and is very inexperienced in the running game. Also, Iowa St has covered in this series in 9 out of the last 10 years. For some reason, they have Iowa's number. ISU's offense has improved, and they got appreciably better as the year went on. Iowa should obviously be the favorite in this one, but not 2 TD's.
8. Oregon -8 @Purdue: I am really not sold on Purdue this year. It's true that Curtis Painter is one of the better QBs in the conference, but their defense looks weak, and they have issues at the receiver position. This play is based more on a feeling than anything else, as I just can't see the Boilers sacking up and turning in a good performance against a quality opponent like Oregon who has not been stopped on a drive yet this year. Their defense is also very good, especially in the secondary. Purdue might be able to hang for awhile early, but I don't see them representing for the Big Ten against one of the Pac 10's elite.
9. SMU +36 1/2 @ Texas Tech: I realize that SMU has not looked very good thus far, especially on defense, but Good Lord, 36 1/2 points? I think that June Jones can muster up some points in this one, as TT's defense has struggled in both of their games this year, giving up almost 500 yards to Nevada last week, in a game they easily could have lost, and giving up 27 points to E Washington. There have also been some rumblings that Graham Harrell has looked somewhat lost so far this year since a #2 receiver behind Crabtree has not yet emerged. I suppose it's possible that TT breaks out and hangs 70 on SMU this week, but I don't think SMU is that bad of a squad. They'll lose, but I would find it difficult to think that they can't stay within 5 TDs.
10 USC -whatever v Ohio St: I'm sorry. I hate to do this, but USC is going to run Ohio St out of the stadium. USC is going to want to leave no doubt, hang half a hundred, whatever. Not that I think USC can roll all over Ohio St on offense, but I am damn sure that they are going to absolutely dominate Ohio St on defense. The fact is that Todd Boeckman has not had a good game since before the Illinois game last year. The speed of the USC defense will overwhelm Ohio St, who has shown a pedestrian offense . Keep in mind the common opponent: Illinois. How did the Illini fare against these two teams? One, they physically handled, the other...well, we know what happened. I just have a hard time coming up with a scenario in which Ohio St can move the ball on these guys, Beanie Wells or no Beanie Wells. Even if Ohio St plays well, theyre still likely to give up 24-27 points, and I can't see OSU getting much more than about 10 points in this one at the most. Again, I think USC has this circled as the game of the year, since their conference schedule is weak, and OSU will get their best effort. I'm not sure that there are many teams that can handle USC's best effort in a big game like this in the Colosseum, but I can guarantee you that Ohio St, at this point, is not one of them. Another Big Ten team goes out there and gets blasted.
11. MTSU +18 @Kentucky: Kentucky hasn't really been tested yet this season, but this is a spread that should be reserved for the Kentucky team from last year. The one that had some weapons on offense. This Kentucky squad is ok on offense, but does not have the firepower to cover a significant spread against a decent squad like MTSU, who last week handled Maryland rather easily. It's true that Kentucky won easily at Louisville in week 1, but that was more a result of Louisville hurting itself than Kentucky doing anything outstanding. If Kentucky doesn't bring their A game, MTSU will give them all they can handle, as they have a competent offense that should be able to put up some numbers on Kentucky if they aren't careful.
12 Western Kentucky +28 @ Alabama: I bet against Bama last week, since they were coming into an obvious letdown spot, and because they almost never cover as a home favorite, but I didn't make it a musing because I was completely in the dark about how good or bad Tulane might be. New coaching staff, best player gone, etc. Well, Tulane went in to Tuscaloosa and dominated Alabama in the box score, just not on the scoreboard due to some big plays. The inability to cover at home, mortal beatdown of Clemson in week one notwithstanding, remains for the Tide. Western Kentucky is in their first year in the Sun Belt, but they have been a decent squad in 1-AA in recent years. Alabama just isn't set up offensively to blow people away, and I think the trend continues here in this one.
Others: To be honest, there are a lot of games I like this week...it was hard to narrow them down. I think in most cases, it's unlikely that a team can generally isnt very good can go on the road and give solid performances two weeks in a row. That's why I like San Jose St (-6)to handle San Diego St at home. SJSU plyed Nebraska to a standstill last week, and comes home to face an Aztec team that looked good in South Bend. Lots of teams do that lately..and there is something to be said about the adrenaline of playing in front of TD Jesus. Now they return to Cali to play a team that still has an inferiority complex to them and beat them soundly last year. Letdown time for the Aztecs.....UConn is laying 11 at home to Virginia. I think Uva stinks, and their QB is out on suspension so they will be using a green youngster under center, but Uconn can't get the ball in the endzone. Their QB Lorenzen has a 0-4 ratio in games against Temple and Hofstra. I have to think Virginia has better defenses than those two, and actually did a decent job of stopping USC's run on a per carry basis. If they can muster 10 points, I would think they would cover that spread......ECU is in the ultimate letdown spot on the road at Tulane, laying 13. Yeah, that's the same Tulane team that held Bama to 172 total yards and outgained them by 146 in Tuscaloosa. It definitely sets up as an interesting situation. ECU is too good to lose here, but they could be in for a tussle......Until Florida Atlantic proves they can hang with a quality opponent on the road, I'm going to fade them at spreads under 20. That's the case when they travel to play a good Michigan St team catching 17 1/2......I think Fresno is a tad bit overrated after seeing what happened to Rutgers last night. I think they'll have a hard time stopping Wisconsin's running attack, and I think they'll struggle more than people think trying to move it on the Badgers. Wisconsin should win this one.....I also wouldn't be surprised if Clemson sleepwalks through their game with NC State and finds themselves in a tight one late. They are a huge disappointment so far.....Akron is catching 7 at home against Ball St. Perhaps another letdown spot here for Nad St coming off a fortunate win over Navy. Akron has looked pretty good on offense in both of their games, so I think Ball St has a good chance of dropping this one outright if they aren't clicking completely on offense....Well, that's about it for this week. Hopefully, we'll all prosper. Take care and pound, pound, pound.
Week 2 Musings
Well, here we are already at week 2. As usual, the musings got off to a good start in the opening week. I'm still pretty convinced that Vegas and the online books set soft lines in favor of favorites in the first week in order to get the lemmings all proud of themselves early. Then, once everyone settles in for the long haul, a tsunami of pain is unleashed, and all the would be geniuses find themselves rifling their remotes through their 45 inch plasmas that they'll end up having to hock. Whatever, it's nice to get off to a good start. 6-3 for the week.
The highlight of the week for me was getting to watch Coach Dick Rod and his band of ill-fitting misfits bumble all over the field in the Big House. Naturally, it should have been much worse than the final score indicated, as Utah, in it's desperate attempt to avoid shitting itself, packed it in offensively in the 2nd half. They could afford to do it too, since Michigan's offensive execution was about as sharp as a doorknob. 2 of their TD's came almost exclusively courtesy of some very bad pass interference calls. As a matter of fact, if I was Coach Dick Rod in the 4th quarter, I would have reduced the playbook to up for grabs fly patterns. At least then they had a shot at getting some more cheap PI calls. In short, they sucked ass, which was great, and predictable.
One quick rant before I get started. We have been subjected, yet again, to Manning family overload. There are countless commercials, and Archie made the obligatory radio interview tour this week, stumping for some product or charity or whatever. In all the interviews, the host panders to Archie about his two awkward sons, Archie does the "aw shucks" routine, and everyone gets all warm and sticky inside. Is this not the same family who steadfastly refused to go to San Diego, asserting that the Chargers were so inept that they were not worthy of Eli's greatness? Has there ever been a bigger misreading of a team's potential? The Chargers, the team that was so bad Eli practically cried when they took him, MADE THE PLAYOFFS THAT SAME YEAR! They have been a dominant team ever since. Why do these goobers not constantly take shit for such a selfish and at the same time boneheaded position? Not only do they not take shit, the media falls all over themselves in competition with each other in their quest to be the first to to slob on Archie Manning's knob at the beginning of every year. It really pisses me off. Can somebody, just once, remind people what a pack of assholes those people were when the Chargers had the audacity to draft their precious Eli. Good Lord.
I didn't like the Thursday night game enough to list it as a musing, but I did take the points with Vandy based on SCs apparent penchant for turning the ball over. A quick trip to ESPN.com reveals a good start to the week. Nice. Also, the NFL started tonight. The Giants beat the Redskins 16-7 on a field of fake grass painted a depressing shade of gray/green. I counted 48 passes thrown less than 2 yards downfield in the game, including two back to back by the Redskins with less than two minutes left in the game down 2 scores on 3rd and 17 and 4th and 12. This kind of thing will happen in about 75% of the games played this year. The NFL sucks. Don't believe the hype.
1. FRIDAY NIGHT: Navy +7 @Ball St. It's true that Ball St will be a very good team this year, and I am definitely a believer in their QB and their other skill people, but I don't like them in this spot. This is actually a carbon copy of last year's game. You have two dynamic offenses facing defenses who have little chance(Navy) to no chance(Ball St)to stop them. The same was true last year, and Ball St, the road team was catching a TD. Since neither team could stop the other, the points made sense, and BSU ended up winning that one outright on a statistical standstill as a result of some lucky turnovers. This year, same deal, except Navy is catching the points. Let me be clear about this. Ball St has absolutely no chance to stop Navy's running game. None. You can chalk up at least 350 yards, probably 400. I can assure you that it is very difficult to cover a TD when you are helpless to stop the other team's runnng game. Not to say that won't be busier than a one armed paper hanger trying to stop Ball St's offense, but I'll take the points and halfway expect an outright Navy victory.
2. @Penn St -15 v Oregon St: After letting me down last week, the Beavs find themselves in a very tough spot this week. I misread Oregon St's lack of a front 7...well let me rephrase that...I knew their front 7 would be a ?, but didn't think it would matter against Stanford. Well, it did, because the Trees ran it consistently on them for 200+ on the ground.If Stanford can gash them, Penn St will absolutely hammer them on the ground, as they return all 5 of their linemen and almost always run it effectively at home. Throw in the fact that OSU struggled to run it on Stanford(28 rushes for 86 yards), and it adds up to an ugly scenario in which Oregon St has to rely on the rock headed Lyle Moevao to carry them against a fast, ball hawking set of LBs and secondary guys. I'd set the over under for picks at 4.5. This one does not set up well for the Beavers. Maybe OSU will sack up and stop the run. Maybe Moevao will morph into a non-scatterbrained mess overnight. Maybe I'll wake up tomorrow and find a hundred dollar bill in Jeffrey's diaper instead of the normal wet dump I usually find after breakfast. Highly unlikely on all 3 counts.
3. USF -13 1/2 @ Central Florida: I've heard some blabbering this week that this is supposed to be some sort of rivalry game. Ok fine, I guess they play in the same state, but rivalry games don't usually end up with scores of 64-12 which was the case in USF's favor last year. They only outgained UCF by 400 yards though, and this year the game's in Orlando, so that should make all the difference, right? No. Last year, O'leary guided UCF to a bowl game on the back of RB Kevin Smith, who is now gone. He accounted for what seemed to be about 95% of their offense. This year, they have to replace him plus 3 of their O linemen. Their offense looked pretty questionable coming in, and they cemented the concerns with a flimsy effort in their opener against South Carolina St, totaling 318 pedestrian yards. They couldn't really throw it, they ran it for 3.5 ypc...not impressive. My guess is that they have a very strong chance to get shut out by a USF defense that returns just about everyone from a team that held UCF(with Kevin Smith) to 150 total yards last year. Meanwhile, Matt Groethe and all his pals return on USF's offense, and they piled up 580 yards on their opening patsy last week. This one looks like a mismatch.
4. Georgia Tech +7 @ Boston College: There is a lot of risk in this pick, since we really don't know what to expect from either squad. Tech looked good in it's opener against whatever patsy it played, but BC looked very underwhelming against Kent in it's warmup, at least on the offensive end. If BC has proven anything over the last several years, it's that they can stop the run. However, if Paul Johnson has proven anything, it's that he doesn't give a rat's ass who you are, he is going to run on you, and in most cases, he is going to do it with inferior talent to yours. Now he has the likes of Jonathan Dwyer running the ball, who is anything but inferior. I surmise that Ga Tech will be able to run it, since that option is a different animal. My concern with BC is that they will not score enough to cover this number, since they are missing a lot from last years squad, including the RBs and Matt Ryan under center. The new QB did nothing last eek against Kent, so if GT can play some solid run defense(which they generally do) BC will struggle to score. I give GT a 50/50 shot to win it outright, so I'll gladly take the TD helper.
5. @Georgia -23 1/2 v Central Michigan: Let me start by saying that I like Central Michigan's squad this year. Danny LeFevour is a very nice QB and they have a ton of guys back from a very potent attack from last year. Unfortunately, it ain't happening for them this week. CMU, despite being good lately, has spent a significant amount of time in their road BCS conference tilts getting wrecked in the early parts of the season. To wit over the past 5 years: Clemson 70-14, Purdue 45-22, Kansas 52-7, Michigan 41-17, Indiana 41-10. Of all those teams, Georgia is probably the best of them all, and the Dawgs are coming off a week in which they didn't blow out their patsy opponent badly enough to hold on to the #1 ranking. My guess is that they won't be too happy about that and will be looking to make a bloody, messy, bonebreaking statement at the expense of CMU. In the BCS scheme of things, the #1 or #2 ranking is important, so don't expect them to miss out on a chance to pummel someone. Bad timing for the Chips, and they've shown a tendency to be helpless i spots like this.
6. UConn -6 1/2 @Temple: Everyone is slobbering all over themselves about the turnaround story of Temple. Yes, they and Buffalo both appear to be viable competitive teams this year after many years of complete douchebaggery on the football field, and yes, it's true that Temple came within a whisker of knocking off UConn in Storrs last year, but I am not sold. The game last year was a different story, as UConn was in a classic sandwich spot with a roadie at Pitt on deck, and they clearly didn't show up for that one. This year, they go on the road remembering the embarrassment they endured when they luckily skated out of that game with a win as a direct result of a brutal replay decision. Temple, on the other hand is coming off a an easy 35-7 opening win over Army, but that is a deceiving score. Army actually outgained Temple in the game 285-250, and Temple only ran it for 2.9 ypc. We're talking about Army here boys. UConn, though not a bunch of He-Men themselves, are certainly leaps and bounds better on both sides of the ball than Army, and Temple is unlikely to get help from defensive and kick return scores 2 weeks in a row. UCONN has most of their talent back that tied for the Big East title last year. This is the kind of game that would have fooled me in the past. No more I tell you!!
7. @Kansas -20 1/2 v Louisiana Tech: If this game was in week one, the spread would probably be somewhere in the 28-30 range. However, since La Tech accepted Sly Croom's gift wrapped victory last week, they have an added modicum of respect, one that is certainly not warranted. News Flash: Mississippi St is not any good. They weren't last year when everyone was congratulating Sly Croom for being merely below average instead of pathetic, and they certainly won't be this year when they don't get the myriad of breaks they got last year which propelled them to a bowl. Now La Tech goes to Kansas without the benefit of a 3 TD spread, which is certainly necessary for them to have any prayer of covering. KU failed me last week when they somehow failed to score in the entire 4th quarter against FIU. I don't think they'll fail me twice. La Tech has very little on offense, and KU will put up 40 with even an average effort. 44-7 looks about right.
8. @MTSU +13 v Maryland: Maryland is truly a sorry outfit this year. The strength of the team last year was a workmanlike running game with a couple of tough runners in Lance Ball and Keon Lattimore,but both RBs are now gone. They opened with Delaware at home, and won 14-7. My old pal Jordan Steffy started for Maryland, but I now read that he tore a thumb ligament, so Chris Turner, who was somewhat competent last year, will start. That's a bummer. Steffy is as bad as his name would suggest, but I still like the Blue Raiders at home. First, there is some precedent, since MTSU hung tough with Virginia at home last year (23-21) and second, these two teams played in College Park 2 years ago with MTSU outgaining them, first downing them and time of possessioning them in that contest. That Maryland team was much better than this one. MTSU dropped their opener with Troy, but reports are that they had 4 possessions within Troy's 15 and came away with only 3 points. I think this one will be close...Maryland doesn't appear to have the chops to blow out anyone on the road.
9. Kent +7 @Iowa St: These teams played in Ames last year and Kent won the game 23-14 outgaining them 363-306 in the process. In that game, Eugene Jarvis, who is the nation's leading returning rusher, ran for 113 yards on 25 carries and QB Julian Eddleman was effective running and throwing the ball. Both return this year, while almost all playmakers from ISU's sorry squad last year are gone. This year, Iowa St opened with South Dakota St and predictably handled them 44-17, but they gave up 7.0 ypc in the process. Kent, meanwhile played BC and got shut out. Jarvis actually ran it on them for 55 yards on only 11 carries..they evidently fell behind and abandoned the running game. The teams look pretty similar to the outfits that teed it up last year, which Kent won rather easily. Now they play again, with pretty much the same cast of characters, and Kent is getting 7? I would never trust Iowa St to cover that number. I think the chances are good that if Jarvis and co hold on to the ball, they will be effective running it. I'll certainly take the 7.
10. @Oklahoma -21 v Cincinnati: This one I am listing grudgingly, because I really like Cincy, but I just think that any spread at 3 TDs or less for Oklahoma in Norman has to be jumped on, and I apologize if the line moves over 21. I'd still probably play it, though. Cincy has a good squad, and Dustin Grutza looked very good under center last week, but Oklahoma is absolutely stacked. Cincy will have to blitz like crazy to get any pressure at all on Bradford, and if they do, he will just pick them apart. On O, Cincy has a tendency to get shut down against elite defenses, and that is exactly what we have here with OU. I think Cincy is a good team, but they have simply not seen the likes of the Sooners and this array of offensive talent.
others: I like MSU's effort against Cal last week, another indication of Dantonio's ability as a coach. They should be able tohandle 21 against EMU, although the Eagles look improved on offense.....I have a feeling Ohio U hangs with Ohio St(-34) and the Buckeyes suffer a bit of a hangover feeling sorry for themselves in Chris Wells' absence.....Texas A&M (-2) travels to New Mexico to play the Lobos, who laid an egg against a very stingy TCU D. They aren't as bad as they looked last week, and I doubt they'llplay as badly two weeks in a row at home. Mike Sherman needs to show something this week, I don't think he gets it done......Pitt(-13.5) is no doubt a better team than Buffalo, but bad things go'n happen to Wanny. Buffalo showed some good things against a good UTEP offense in week one, so they might be able to hang with Pitt. Even if Pitt outgains Buffalo by 300 yards, they'll still probably be in danger of losing outright, knowing Wanny.....Nevada is catching 10 at home to Texas Tech. Both teams are very strong(obviously) on offense, and I suspect Tech is much better than the Pack on defense, but TT plays like dogshit almost every year in these quasi-tough road games. I love their team this year, but something tells me they struggle in this one like they have in the past with the likes of TCU, UTEP, New Mexico, etc.....I can't resist taking the 23 with San Diego St in South Bend despite the lack of any evidence that they can compete with a single D-1 team, (or D-1AA for that matter). ND will have to show me. For the timebeing, I consider 20+ a gift in any game with these guys until they can show that they have a clue on offense. Good Luck to all....let's get the Cubs out of this mini funk.
Sorry, but I forgot about another game. Was hemming and hawing, but I'm going to add it.
11. @East Carolina +7 1/2 v West Virginia: ECU provided a nice hit for us last week, so I was very hesitant to go back to the well...sometimes you need to step back and be objective when you feel favoritism creeping into your picks, or overwhelming negativity. That's why Miami(OH) +14 1/2 doesn't appear on the card although I really lean that way. In this game, ECU is coming off a great win over VT, in a game they actually dominated more than the final score would suggest. The yardage edge was 369-247 for ECU, and ECU made some annoying mistakes early in the game that kept it from being a total laugher. So now, off that momentum, ECU welcomes West Virginia, who absolutely laid the wood to them last year in Morgantown to the tune of a 600-160(!!!) yardage advantage. Usually, I take those kind of things into account, but in this case, it can be overlooked due to the profound change in leadership at WV. Coming into the season, I felt that WV might have some issues with new Village Idiot Bill Stewart at the controls, or at least with him hugging people on the sidelines if not completely at the controls. This might be especially true on the defensive side of the ball. Say what you will about Dick Rod, the coaching dropoff between these two is immense. You'll notice that WV, despite a comfortable victory over Villanova, was outgained by the Wildcats 399-354. The 354 yards by WV was the third fewest since Pat White came on the scene in 2005. They also gave up 28 first downs to Nova on the day, an indication of a consistent ability to move the ball. ECU showed extreme precision in their first game, with QB Pinckney completing his first 11 throws and 19-23 for the game. They also showed an ability to run it effectively on VT, something they should be able to do as well on WV. I think we are talking about a severe coaching edge on ECU's part, along with an offense that might not have the sharpness that it did in the Dick Rod years. Throw in the fact that this might be a slop-fest due to Tropical Storm what's her nuts, and you might have a real chance for ECU to pull off another upset. By the way, some books have this at 8, but mine are at 7 1/2, so that's how I'm listing this one.
That's it...Good Luck
The highlight of the week for me was getting to watch Coach Dick Rod and his band of ill-fitting misfits bumble all over the field in the Big House. Naturally, it should have been much worse than the final score indicated, as Utah, in it's desperate attempt to avoid shitting itself, packed it in offensively in the 2nd half. They could afford to do it too, since Michigan's offensive execution was about as sharp as a doorknob. 2 of their TD's came almost exclusively courtesy of some very bad pass interference calls. As a matter of fact, if I was Coach Dick Rod in the 4th quarter, I would have reduced the playbook to up for grabs fly patterns. At least then they had a shot at getting some more cheap PI calls. In short, they sucked ass, which was great, and predictable.
One quick rant before I get started. We have been subjected, yet again, to Manning family overload. There are countless commercials, and Archie made the obligatory radio interview tour this week, stumping for some product or charity or whatever. In all the interviews, the host panders to Archie about his two awkward sons, Archie does the "aw shucks" routine, and everyone gets all warm and sticky inside. Is this not the same family who steadfastly refused to go to San Diego, asserting that the Chargers were so inept that they were not worthy of Eli's greatness? Has there ever been a bigger misreading of a team's potential? The Chargers, the team that was so bad Eli practically cried when they took him, MADE THE PLAYOFFS THAT SAME YEAR! They have been a dominant team ever since. Why do these goobers not constantly take shit for such a selfish and at the same time boneheaded position? Not only do they not take shit, the media falls all over themselves in competition with each other in their quest to be the first to to slob on Archie Manning's knob at the beginning of every year. It really pisses me off. Can somebody, just once, remind people what a pack of assholes those people were when the Chargers had the audacity to draft their precious Eli. Good Lord.
I didn't like the Thursday night game enough to list it as a musing, but I did take the points with Vandy based on SCs apparent penchant for turning the ball over. A quick trip to ESPN.com reveals a good start to the week. Nice. Also, the NFL started tonight. The Giants beat the Redskins 16-7 on a field of fake grass painted a depressing shade of gray/green. I counted 48 passes thrown less than 2 yards downfield in the game, including two back to back by the Redskins with less than two minutes left in the game down 2 scores on 3rd and 17 and 4th and 12. This kind of thing will happen in about 75% of the games played this year. The NFL sucks. Don't believe the hype.
1. FRIDAY NIGHT: Navy +7 @Ball St. It's true that Ball St will be a very good team this year, and I am definitely a believer in their QB and their other skill people, but I don't like them in this spot. This is actually a carbon copy of last year's game. You have two dynamic offenses facing defenses who have little chance(Navy) to no chance(Ball St)to stop them. The same was true last year, and Ball St, the road team was catching a TD. Since neither team could stop the other, the points made sense, and BSU ended up winning that one outright on a statistical standstill as a result of some lucky turnovers. This year, same deal, except Navy is catching the points. Let me be clear about this. Ball St has absolutely no chance to stop Navy's running game. None. You can chalk up at least 350 yards, probably 400. I can assure you that it is very difficult to cover a TD when you are helpless to stop the other team's runnng game. Not to say that won't be busier than a one armed paper hanger trying to stop Ball St's offense, but I'll take the points and halfway expect an outright Navy victory.
2. @Penn St -15 v Oregon St: After letting me down last week, the Beavs find themselves in a very tough spot this week. I misread Oregon St's lack of a front 7...well let me rephrase that...I knew their front 7 would be a ?, but didn't think it would matter against Stanford. Well, it did, because the Trees ran it consistently on them for 200+ on the ground.If Stanford can gash them, Penn St will absolutely hammer them on the ground, as they return all 5 of their linemen and almost always run it effectively at home. Throw in the fact that OSU struggled to run it on Stanford(28 rushes for 86 yards), and it adds up to an ugly scenario in which Oregon St has to rely on the rock headed Lyle Moevao to carry them against a fast, ball hawking set of LBs and secondary guys. I'd set the over under for picks at 4.5. This one does not set up well for the Beavers. Maybe OSU will sack up and stop the run. Maybe Moevao will morph into a non-scatterbrained mess overnight. Maybe I'll wake up tomorrow and find a hundred dollar bill in Jeffrey's diaper instead of the normal wet dump I usually find after breakfast. Highly unlikely on all 3 counts.
3. USF -13 1/2 @ Central Florida: I've heard some blabbering this week that this is supposed to be some sort of rivalry game. Ok fine, I guess they play in the same state, but rivalry games don't usually end up with scores of 64-12 which was the case in USF's favor last year. They only outgained UCF by 400 yards though, and this year the game's in Orlando, so that should make all the difference, right? No. Last year, O'leary guided UCF to a bowl game on the back of RB Kevin Smith, who is now gone. He accounted for what seemed to be about 95% of their offense. This year, they have to replace him plus 3 of their O linemen. Their offense looked pretty questionable coming in, and they cemented the concerns with a flimsy effort in their opener against South Carolina St, totaling 318 pedestrian yards. They couldn't really throw it, they ran it for 3.5 ypc...not impressive. My guess is that they have a very strong chance to get shut out by a USF defense that returns just about everyone from a team that held UCF(with Kevin Smith) to 150 total yards last year. Meanwhile, Matt Groethe and all his pals return on USF's offense, and they piled up 580 yards on their opening patsy last week. This one looks like a mismatch.
4. Georgia Tech +7 @ Boston College: There is a lot of risk in this pick, since we really don't know what to expect from either squad. Tech looked good in it's opener against whatever patsy it played, but BC looked very underwhelming against Kent in it's warmup, at least on the offensive end. If BC has proven anything over the last several years, it's that they can stop the run. However, if Paul Johnson has proven anything, it's that he doesn't give a rat's ass who you are, he is going to run on you, and in most cases, he is going to do it with inferior talent to yours. Now he has the likes of Jonathan Dwyer running the ball, who is anything but inferior. I surmise that Ga Tech will be able to run it, since that option is a different animal. My concern with BC is that they will not score enough to cover this number, since they are missing a lot from last years squad, including the RBs and Matt Ryan under center. The new QB did nothing last eek against Kent, so if GT can play some solid run defense(which they generally do) BC will struggle to score. I give GT a 50/50 shot to win it outright, so I'll gladly take the TD helper.
5. @Georgia -23 1/2 v Central Michigan: Let me start by saying that I like Central Michigan's squad this year. Danny LeFevour is a very nice QB and they have a ton of guys back from a very potent attack from last year. Unfortunately, it ain't happening for them this week. CMU, despite being good lately, has spent a significant amount of time in their road BCS conference tilts getting wrecked in the early parts of the season. To wit over the past 5 years: Clemson 70-14, Purdue 45-22, Kansas 52-7, Michigan 41-17, Indiana 41-10. Of all those teams, Georgia is probably the best of them all, and the Dawgs are coming off a week in which they didn't blow out their patsy opponent badly enough to hold on to the #1 ranking. My guess is that they won't be too happy about that and will be looking to make a bloody, messy, bonebreaking statement at the expense of CMU. In the BCS scheme of things, the #1 or #2 ranking is important, so don't expect them to miss out on a chance to pummel someone. Bad timing for the Chips, and they've shown a tendency to be helpless i spots like this.
6. UConn -6 1/2 @Temple: Everyone is slobbering all over themselves about the turnaround story of Temple. Yes, they and Buffalo both appear to be viable competitive teams this year after many years of complete douchebaggery on the football field, and yes, it's true that Temple came within a whisker of knocking off UConn in Storrs last year, but I am not sold. The game last year was a different story, as UConn was in a classic sandwich spot with a roadie at Pitt on deck, and they clearly didn't show up for that one. This year, they go on the road remembering the embarrassment they endured when they luckily skated out of that game with a win as a direct result of a brutal replay decision. Temple, on the other hand is coming off a an easy 35-7 opening win over Army, but that is a deceiving score. Army actually outgained Temple in the game 285-250, and Temple only ran it for 2.9 ypc. We're talking about Army here boys. UConn, though not a bunch of He-Men themselves, are certainly leaps and bounds better on both sides of the ball than Army, and Temple is unlikely to get help from defensive and kick return scores 2 weeks in a row. UCONN has most of their talent back that tied for the Big East title last year. This is the kind of game that would have fooled me in the past. No more I tell you!!
7. @Kansas -20 1/2 v Louisiana Tech: If this game was in week one, the spread would probably be somewhere in the 28-30 range. However, since La Tech accepted Sly Croom's gift wrapped victory last week, they have an added modicum of respect, one that is certainly not warranted. News Flash: Mississippi St is not any good. They weren't last year when everyone was congratulating Sly Croom for being merely below average instead of pathetic, and they certainly won't be this year when they don't get the myriad of breaks they got last year which propelled them to a bowl. Now La Tech goes to Kansas without the benefit of a 3 TD spread, which is certainly necessary for them to have any prayer of covering. KU failed me last week when they somehow failed to score in the entire 4th quarter against FIU. I don't think they'll fail me twice. La Tech has very little on offense, and KU will put up 40 with even an average effort. 44-7 looks about right.
8. @MTSU +13 v Maryland: Maryland is truly a sorry outfit this year. The strength of the team last year was a workmanlike running game with a couple of tough runners in Lance Ball and Keon Lattimore,but both RBs are now gone. They opened with Delaware at home, and won 14-7. My old pal Jordan Steffy started for Maryland, but I now read that he tore a thumb ligament, so Chris Turner, who was somewhat competent last year, will start. That's a bummer. Steffy is as bad as his name would suggest, but I still like the Blue Raiders at home. First, there is some precedent, since MTSU hung tough with Virginia at home last year (23-21) and second, these two teams played in College Park 2 years ago with MTSU outgaining them, first downing them and time of possessioning them in that contest. That Maryland team was much better than this one. MTSU dropped their opener with Troy, but reports are that they had 4 possessions within Troy's 15 and came away with only 3 points. I think this one will be close...Maryland doesn't appear to have the chops to blow out anyone on the road.
9. Kent +7 @Iowa St: These teams played in Ames last year and Kent won the game 23-14 outgaining them 363-306 in the process. In that game, Eugene Jarvis, who is the nation's leading returning rusher, ran for 113 yards on 25 carries and QB Julian Eddleman was effective running and throwing the ball. Both return this year, while almost all playmakers from ISU's sorry squad last year are gone. This year, Iowa St opened with South Dakota St and predictably handled them 44-17, but they gave up 7.0 ypc in the process. Kent, meanwhile played BC and got shut out. Jarvis actually ran it on them for 55 yards on only 11 carries..they evidently fell behind and abandoned the running game. The teams look pretty similar to the outfits that teed it up last year, which Kent won rather easily. Now they play again, with pretty much the same cast of characters, and Kent is getting 7? I would never trust Iowa St to cover that number. I think the chances are good that if Jarvis and co hold on to the ball, they will be effective running it. I'll certainly take the 7.
10. @Oklahoma -21 v Cincinnati: This one I am listing grudgingly, because I really like Cincy, but I just think that any spread at 3 TDs or less for Oklahoma in Norman has to be jumped on, and I apologize if the line moves over 21. I'd still probably play it, though. Cincy has a good squad, and Dustin Grutza looked very good under center last week, but Oklahoma is absolutely stacked. Cincy will have to blitz like crazy to get any pressure at all on Bradford, and if they do, he will just pick them apart. On O, Cincy has a tendency to get shut down against elite defenses, and that is exactly what we have here with OU. I think Cincy is a good team, but they have simply not seen the likes of the Sooners and this array of offensive talent.
others: I like MSU's effort against Cal last week, another indication of Dantonio's ability as a coach. They should be able tohandle 21 against EMU, although the Eagles look improved on offense.....I have a feeling Ohio U hangs with Ohio St(-34) and the Buckeyes suffer a bit of a hangover feeling sorry for themselves in Chris Wells' absence.....Texas A&M (-2) travels to New Mexico to play the Lobos, who laid an egg against a very stingy TCU D. They aren't as bad as they looked last week, and I doubt they'llplay as badly two weeks in a row at home. Mike Sherman needs to show something this week, I don't think he gets it done......Pitt(-13.5) is no doubt a better team than Buffalo, but bad things go'n happen to Wanny. Buffalo showed some good things against a good UTEP offense in week one, so they might be able to hang with Pitt. Even if Pitt outgains Buffalo by 300 yards, they'll still probably be in danger of losing outright, knowing Wanny.....Nevada is catching 10 at home to Texas Tech. Both teams are very strong(obviously) on offense, and I suspect Tech is much better than the Pack on defense, but TT plays like dogshit almost every year in these quasi-tough road games. I love their team this year, but something tells me they struggle in this one like they have in the past with the likes of TCU, UTEP, New Mexico, etc.....I can't resist taking the 23 with San Diego St in South Bend despite the lack of any evidence that they can compete with a single D-1 team, (or D-1AA for that matter). ND will have to show me. For the timebeing, I consider 20+ a gift in any game with these guys until they can show that they have a clue on offense. Good Luck to all....let's get the Cubs out of this mini funk.
Sorry, but I forgot about another game. Was hemming and hawing, but I'm going to add it.
11. @East Carolina +7 1/2 v West Virginia: ECU provided a nice hit for us last week, so I was very hesitant to go back to the well...sometimes you need to step back and be objective when you feel favoritism creeping into your picks, or overwhelming negativity. That's why Miami(OH) +14 1/2 doesn't appear on the card although I really lean that way. In this game, ECU is coming off a great win over VT, in a game they actually dominated more than the final score would suggest. The yardage edge was 369-247 for ECU, and ECU made some annoying mistakes early in the game that kept it from being a total laugher. So now, off that momentum, ECU welcomes West Virginia, who absolutely laid the wood to them last year in Morgantown to the tune of a 600-160(!!!) yardage advantage. Usually, I take those kind of things into account, but in this case, it can be overlooked due to the profound change in leadership at WV. Coming into the season, I felt that WV might have some issues with new Village Idiot Bill Stewart at the controls, or at least with him hugging people on the sidelines if not completely at the controls. This might be especially true on the defensive side of the ball. Say what you will about Dick Rod, the coaching dropoff between these two is immense. You'll notice that WV, despite a comfortable victory over Villanova, was outgained by the Wildcats 399-354. The 354 yards by WV was the third fewest since Pat White came on the scene in 2005. They also gave up 28 first downs to Nova on the day, an indication of a consistent ability to move the ball. ECU showed extreme precision in their first game, with QB Pinckney completing his first 11 throws and 19-23 for the game. They also showed an ability to run it effectively on VT, something they should be able to do as well on WV. I think we are talking about a severe coaching edge on ECU's part, along with an offense that might not have the sharpness that it did in the Dick Rod years. Throw in the fact that this might be a slop-fest due to Tropical Storm what's her nuts, and you might have a real chance for ECU to pull off another upset. By the way, some books have this at 8, but mine are at 7 1/2, so that's how I'm listing this one.
That's it...Good Luck
Week 1 Musings Continued
As I write this, it has become apparent that I need to stay away from Oregon St games in week 1. Last year, I was on Utah when they made the trip to Corvalis, and they got squashed in what turned out to be my only loss in week one. Now Oregon St has just seen the wheel fall off in Palo Alto in a game they certainly should have won. I think we all need to remember what happens when you lay points on the road with a questionable QB situation. I also wish I would have known that the previously sane Art Briles has had a lobotomy, the only explanation for his willingness to start former Miami oaf Kirby Freeman. It boggles the mind how any university would have any desire for this stiff to join their program. If I'm Art Briles, the only way I let Freeman within 12 miles of the Baylor campus is if he's donating his post mortem organs to the Baylor school of medicine for beer money, then gives me the beer. Unfortunately, Briles was somehow blinded by Freeman's ability to look good in a uniform, leading to this predictable line in their game with Wake Thursday: 4-11, 31 yards, 0 TD(naturally) and 2 INT. Baylor is an auto-fade if he isn't kicked off the team immediately.
Kudos to Oregon St for canning the horrible road unis from last year and going to a simple White jersey/pants combo with an orange stripe down the side. It's a lot beter than the monstrosities they wore last year, which featurd an orange outline on the nameplate, a look that resembled a neon orange highlighter.By the way, I'll attach some Jimmy Claussen pics to illustrate the earlier point.
Nothing, obviously for Friday. On to Saturday:
2. @Wyoming -10 1/2 v Ohio: The Bobcats figure to be one of the weaker outfits in the MAC this year, and especially in the East division, that's saying something. They have no passing game to speak of and haven't since Frank Solich took over. This year they have to replace their all time leading rusher Kalvin MCRae, who made up almost all of their offense last year.These two two teams played last year in Athens and it went down to the wire due to a punt return score and other lucky plays for Ohio. Wyoming outgained them by more than 100 yards, holding the Ohio rushing attack to 1.0 per carry. If they couldn't run it at home with their all time leading rusher last year, how do we like their chances this year in Laramie against a defense that returns all of it's run stoppers? Also remember that in their opener last year, Wyoming bludgeoned a Virginia squad to the tune of a 438-100 yard advantage who played on 1/1. I don't like Wyoming in conference, but in this case, they are a good play. Wyoming also will be using a new QB, which is no big deal since incumbent Karsten Sween has a 12/17 ratio last year. I don't like Ohio's chances to put up much in the way of points. I can se a 27-3 type game here.
3. Utah +3 1/2 @Michigan: I actually got this at 4 on BetUS. A I've mentioned, this game reminds me a lot of the ND/GT game in week one last year, although I'm not as sold on Utah as I was on GT last year. Michigan simply has no players on offense. New QB, new RBs, new Wrs and most alarming, almost all new offensive linemen. Some of these linemen have never seen the field either, so we're not talking about guys switching positions, or former backups stepping in. These guys have never played. In addition, at QB, we are talking about a discarded Ga Tech transfer and a walk-on. Not exactly what MIchigan is used to. On the flip side, Utah has a loaded squad back, including QB Johnson, all his running backs and most of his receiving crew. On defense, Utah has 3 big Samoans on the line, so it might be tough for the new Michigan OL to contain them. Maybe they can just roll those winged helmets on the field and a win will occur, but I think Utah has some high expectations for themselves.
4. @Kansas -36 v Florida International: Most people will tell you that FIU would bring up the rear in any 1 through 118 ranking of all D-1 schools. They are simply pathetic.Last year Kansas pounded them 55-3, and KU will almost certainly be able to name the score here as well. Kansas is a team that had a fantastic year last year, losing only once, but remains somewhat under the radar among the talking heads. They have most of their team back, including efficient QB Todd Reesing and a solid defense. They will probably be looking to disembowel the sad sacks from FIU to serve notice that they are ready again to commence ass-kicking this year. They'll kick the shit out of FIU and then throw in some swirlies after the game for good measure.
5. @Cal -4 1/2 v MIchigan St: Some people are down on Cal since they have lost a ton of talent at WR as well as Justin Forsett in the backfield, but Jahvid Best will almost certainly be better than Forsett, and Cal took a lot or crap for their "primadonna" ways last year.The departure of the receivers is almost certainly a good thing, as the new guys are highly recruited and regarded. MSU took some heavy losses as well, losing their top two pass catchers. Cal returns a veteran line anchored by an All American at Center and faces an MSU D line with 3 new starters. Many people point to MSU's schedule last year and point out that they were "in" every game. That's great, and I cannot argue with that but I think it was the large breasted Bill Parcels who once advised that "Every team is what it's record says it is." That's the case with MSU. Asking them to go cross country to play a team with better atheletes than them and only catch 4 1/2 is vey tough proposition.
6. @Oregon -13 v Washington: First of all, Oregon is 12-3 ATS as a home favorite over the past 3 years. Now they face what they still consider a rivalry opponent in Washington. This is somewhat laughable, as Ty Willingham has taken the baton from previous village idiot Keith Gilbertson and taken UW further into an abyss their fans wish was only a horrible nightmare. Oregon loses Dennis Dixon and RB Jonathan Stewart, but they have been excited about the play of ttheir new RBs.QB Justin Roper who engineered the beatdown of South Florida in their bowl, now is starting by virtue of an injury to their projected starter. I doubt that will make much difference. Oregon returns a stout offensive line against Ty Willingham's flimsy unit. EVERYONE other than Jake Locker is gone on the offensive side of the ball for UW so unless Locker intends to just break 11 tackles on each play, the Huskies might struggle to score. Oregon has a chance to be very good on both sides of the ball this year. Looks like a bad matchup off the bat for Ty and co.
7. East Carolina +9 1/2 v Virginia Tech: This is a neutral site game in Charlotte. Let me first say that I like Skip Holtz. There was some question about him when he bungled the end of his tenure under his dad at South Carolina, and some snickered when he got this job, but East Carolina has been a very solid squad since he took over. This year, they open with VT on a neutral field. Last year, they hung with VT in Blacksburg for the duration, losing 17-10 thanks to a defensive TD late in the game thrown by ECU's backup QB. In that game, the total yardage was even, and ECU stuffed Branden Ore and the Hokie for 33 yards on 31 carries. This year, they return almost their entire front 7. VT has lost about all of their skill guys other than QB Sean Glennon, who is improved but is hardly a kind of QB who can win a game for you by himself. They almost certainly will have to run it to be effectively offensively, but there is no evidence that they'll be able to do that. Defensively, VT will be stout, but they lose their top 3 playmakers on defense. ECU has some skill guys coming back including QB Patrick Pinkney, who had an 11/4 ratio last year. His backup, who did not play in the VT game last year, Rob Kass had a 9/4 ratio, so even if a VT does a Jefferson from Fast Times at Ridgemont High on him and leaves him twitching on the turf, ECU has a guy to step in. I think ECU sees this as a great opportunity, and certainly doesn't lack confidence after trading blows with VT last year. The lack of homefield advantage for VT might make the difference. As long as ECU doesn't give VT the obligatory defensive or ST touchdown, I think they have a great shot in this one. You might even be able to get it at 10.
8. TCU -6 1/2 @New Mexico: I really hate laying points on the road in situations like this, but I can't resist here. New Mexico is generally a solid squad, especially defensively, and good at home. However, this year, they are rebuilding completely, with nobody back on defense, and all but one of their offensive linemen taking the field for the first time for the Lobos. TCu, on the other hand, has most of their team back. This year, the Frogs actually look to have a pretty solid offense, something they've lacked the past couple of years, with a legitimate throwing QB. Their running game should be as good as normal. On defense, they will be stout again with a solid secondary and a formidable front 7. They key to this game is to look at last year's matchup. I realize things like revenge and attrition come into play, but TCU absolutely pig roasted New Mexico last year to the tune of a 421-119 yard advantage and a 37-0 victory. New Mexico is worse than last year, considerably, and TCU is appreciably better. I just think it will be tough for the Lobos to compete in this one, especially with the clear edge at the line of scrimmage.
9. @Nebraska -14 v Western Michigan: WMU should be a decent MAC squad, but this is a spot that will be tough for them to handle. Nebraska spent last year getting torched on defense, leading to the gleeful shitcanning of the failed Bill Callahan and the arrival of everyone's best friend Bo Pelini, who many felt should have gotten the job when Frank Solich was fired several years ago. Offensively, Nebraska didn't really have any problems last year, especially after Joe Ganz stepped in at QB. They shouldn't have any issues keeping that red- faced red clad mob in that stadium happy when they have the ball in this one either. Defensively, I'd look for an inspired effort in their first game under Pelini. WMU should really be getting 20 or so in this game.
Others: Akron has a chance to be very bad this year in the MAC, and they open at Wisconsin getting less than 30(28). I'm not a fan of Wisconsin's QB, so I can't completely recommend this one, but it's highly likely the Badgers will have their way with the Zips.....at first glance, FAU looked really good to me catching 24 from a team(Texas) that can't stop the pass, but the rumor is that Muschamp(new DC) has UT rolling on that side of the ball. If that's the case, the 24 probably isn't enough.....Even though Minnesota was a living joke last year, especially defensively, they finished the year clicking on all cylinders offensively and have the primary suspects back. They only have to lay 7 at home to a NIU team that completely shat the bed last year. I like NIU's new coach Jerry Kill)(could a football coach's name get any better?) and NIU has everyone back, but they look to me to be a pedestrian outfit offensively, so MInny might be able to keep them under wraps. If NIU can't put up 24-28 in this one, they're unlikely to be able to cover because Minnesota will probably pile up some points on them.....K State will probably blow out North Texas(-27), even though they lose some good players on offense.....Everyone in the world expects a collapse from Hawaii, and there is no doubt that they will see a huge drop off offensively, but they have some defensive talent, and might catch Florida napping a bit. 35 is a ton of points.....Northwestern's inability to ever cover as a home favorite has me unable to consider them -11 with Syracuse, but they really should lay the wood to the Orange, who are without question the worst team in a non-BCS conference. How Greg Robinson still has a job is beyond me. He is about a 1-5 favorite to be the first coach canned. The over/under on his departure should be set at week 5. That's it for now. I might add a couple for tomorrow and Monday....considering Kentucky, Tennessee and maybe Fresno St. Take Care.
Kudos to Oregon St for canning the horrible road unis from last year and going to a simple White jersey/pants combo with an orange stripe down the side. It's a lot beter than the monstrosities they wore last year, which featurd an orange outline on the nameplate, a look that resembled a neon orange highlighter.By the way, I'll attach some Jimmy Claussen pics to illustrate the earlier point.
Nothing, obviously for Friday. On to Saturday:
2. @Wyoming -10 1/2 v Ohio: The Bobcats figure to be one of the weaker outfits in the MAC this year, and especially in the East division, that's saying something. They have no passing game to speak of and haven't since Frank Solich took over. This year they have to replace their all time leading rusher Kalvin MCRae, who made up almost all of their offense last year.These two two teams played last year in Athens and it went down to the wire due to a punt return score and other lucky plays for Ohio. Wyoming outgained them by more than 100 yards, holding the Ohio rushing attack to 1.0 per carry. If they couldn't run it at home with their all time leading rusher last year, how do we like their chances this year in Laramie against a defense that returns all of it's run stoppers? Also remember that in their opener last year, Wyoming bludgeoned a Virginia squad to the tune of a 438-100 yard advantage who played on 1/1. I don't like Wyoming in conference, but in this case, they are a good play. Wyoming also will be using a new QB, which is no big deal since incumbent Karsten Sween has a 12/17 ratio last year. I don't like Ohio's chances to put up much in the way of points. I can se a 27-3 type game here.
3. Utah +3 1/2 @Michigan: I actually got this at 4 on BetUS. A I've mentioned, this game reminds me a lot of the ND/GT game in week one last year, although I'm not as sold on Utah as I was on GT last year. Michigan simply has no players on offense. New QB, new RBs, new Wrs and most alarming, almost all new offensive linemen. Some of these linemen have never seen the field either, so we're not talking about guys switching positions, or former backups stepping in. These guys have never played. In addition, at QB, we are talking about a discarded Ga Tech transfer and a walk-on. Not exactly what MIchigan is used to. On the flip side, Utah has a loaded squad back, including QB Johnson, all his running backs and most of his receiving crew. On defense, Utah has 3 big Samoans on the line, so it might be tough for the new Michigan OL to contain them. Maybe they can just roll those winged helmets on the field and a win will occur, but I think Utah has some high expectations for themselves.
4. @Kansas -36 v Florida International: Most people will tell you that FIU would bring up the rear in any 1 through 118 ranking of all D-1 schools. They are simply pathetic.Last year Kansas pounded them 55-3, and KU will almost certainly be able to name the score here as well. Kansas is a team that had a fantastic year last year, losing only once, but remains somewhat under the radar among the talking heads. They have most of their team back, including efficient QB Todd Reesing and a solid defense. They will probably be looking to disembowel the sad sacks from FIU to serve notice that they are ready again to commence ass-kicking this year. They'll kick the shit out of FIU and then throw in some swirlies after the game for good measure.
5. @Cal -4 1/2 v MIchigan St: Some people are down on Cal since they have lost a ton of talent at WR as well as Justin Forsett in the backfield, but Jahvid Best will almost certainly be better than Forsett, and Cal took a lot or crap for their "primadonna" ways last year.The departure of the receivers is almost certainly a good thing, as the new guys are highly recruited and regarded. MSU took some heavy losses as well, losing their top two pass catchers. Cal returns a veteran line anchored by an All American at Center and faces an MSU D line with 3 new starters. Many people point to MSU's schedule last year and point out that they were "in" every game. That's great, and I cannot argue with that but I think it was the large breasted Bill Parcels who once advised that "Every team is what it's record says it is." That's the case with MSU. Asking them to go cross country to play a team with better atheletes than them and only catch 4 1/2 is vey tough proposition.
6. @Oregon -13 v Washington: First of all, Oregon is 12-3 ATS as a home favorite over the past 3 years. Now they face what they still consider a rivalry opponent in Washington. This is somewhat laughable, as Ty Willingham has taken the baton from previous village idiot Keith Gilbertson and taken UW further into an abyss their fans wish was only a horrible nightmare. Oregon loses Dennis Dixon and RB Jonathan Stewart, but they have been excited about the play of ttheir new RBs.QB Justin Roper who engineered the beatdown of South Florida in their bowl, now is starting by virtue of an injury to their projected starter. I doubt that will make much difference. Oregon returns a stout offensive line against Ty Willingham's flimsy unit. EVERYONE other than Jake Locker is gone on the offensive side of the ball for UW so unless Locker intends to just break 11 tackles on each play, the Huskies might struggle to score. Oregon has a chance to be very good on both sides of the ball this year. Looks like a bad matchup off the bat for Ty and co.
7. East Carolina +9 1/2 v Virginia Tech: This is a neutral site game in Charlotte. Let me first say that I like Skip Holtz. There was some question about him when he bungled the end of his tenure under his dad at South Carolina, and some snickered when he got this job, but East Carolina has been a very solid squad since he took over. This year, they open with VT on a neutral field. Last year, they hung with VT in Blacksburg for the duration, losing 17-10 thanks to a defensive TD late in the game thrown by ECU's backup QB. In that game, the total yardage was even, and ECU stuffed Branden Ore and the Hokie for 33 yards on 31 carries. This year, they return almost their entire front 7. VT has lost about all of their skill guys other than QB Sean Glennon, who is improved but is hardly a kind of QB who can win a game for you by himself. They almost certainly will have to run it to be effectively offensively, but there is no evidence that they'll be able to do that. Defensively, VT will be stout, but they lose their top 3 playmakers on defense. ECU has some skill guys coming back including QB Patrick Pinkney, who had an 11/4 ratio last year. His backup, who did not play in the VT game last year, Rob Kass had a 9/4 ratio, so even if a VT does a Jefferson from Fast Times at Ridgemont High on him and leaves him twitching on the turf, ECU has a guy to step in. I think ECU sees this as a great opportunity, and certainly doesn't lack confidence after trading blows with VT last year. The lack of homefield advantage for VT might make the difference. As long as ECU doesn't give VT the obligatory defensive or ST touchdown, I think they have a great shot in this one. You might even be able to get it at 10.
8. TCU -6 1/2 @New Mexico: I really hate laying points on the road in situations like this, but I can't resist here. New Mexico is generally a solid squad, especially defensively, and good at home. However, this year, they are rebuilding completely, with nobody back on defense, and all but one of their offensive linemen taking the field for the first time for the Lobos. TCu, on the other hand, has most of their team back. This year, the Frogs actually look to have a pretty solid offense, something they've lacked the past couple of years, with a legitimate throwing QB. Their running game should be as good as normal. On defense, they will be stout again with a solid secondary and a formidable front 7. They key to this game is to look at last year's matchup. I realize things like revenge and attrition come into play, but TCU absolutely pig roasted New Mexico last year to the tune of a 421-119 yard advantage and a 37-0 victory. New Mexico is worse than last year, considerably, and TCU is appreciably better. I just think it will be tough for the Lobos to compete in this one, especially with the clear edge at the line of scrimmage.
9. @Nebraska -14 v Western Michigan: WMU should be a decent MAC squad, but this is a spot that will be tough for them to handle. Nebraska spent last year getting torched on defense, leading to the gleeful shitcanning of the failed Bill Callahan and the arrival of everyone's best friend Bo Pelini, who many felt should have gotten the job when Frank Solich was fired several years ago. Offensively, Nebraska didn't really have any problems last year, especially after Joe Ganz stepped in at QB. They shouldn't have any issues keeping that red- faced red clad mob in that stadium happy when they have the ball in this one either. Defensively, I'd look for an inspired effort in their first game under Pelini. WMU should really be getting 20 or so in this game.
Others: Akron has a chance to be very bad this year in the MAC, and they open at Wisconsin getting less than 30(28). I'm not a fan of Wisconsin's QB, so I can't completely recommend this one, but it's highly likely the Badgers will have their way with the Zips.....at first glance, FAU looked really good to me catching 24 from a team(Texas) that can't stop the pass, but the rumor is that Muschamp(new DC) has UT rolling on that side of the ball. If that's the case, the 24 probably isn't enough.....Even though Minnesota was a living joke last year, especially defensively, they finished the year clicking on all cylinders offensively and have the primary suspects back. They only have to lay 7 at home to a NIU team that completely shat the bed last year. I like NIU's new coach Jerry Kill)(could a football coach's name get any better?) and NIU has everyone back, but they look to me to be a pedestrian outfit offensively, so MInny might be able to keep them under wraps. If NIU can't put up 24-28 in this one, they're unlikely to be able to cover because Minnesota will probably pile up some points on them.....K State will probably blow out North Texas(-27), even though they lose some good players on offense.....Everyone in the world expects a collapse from Hawaii, and there is no doubt that they will see a huge drop off offensively, but they have some defensive talent, and might catch Florida napping a bit. 35 is a ton of points.....Northwestern's inability to ever cover as a home favorite has me unable to consider them -11 with Syracuse, but they really should lay the wood to the Orange, who are without question the worst team in a non-BCS conference. How Greg Robinson still has a job is beyond me. He is about a 1-5 favorite to be the first coach canned. The over/under on his departure should be set at week 5. That's it for now. I might add a couple for tomorrow and Monday....considering Kentucky, Tennessee and maybe Fresno St. Take Care.
Week 1 Musings
Somehow, the beginning of college football has managed to sneak up on us. It normally never sneaks up on me, but this year, too much annoying bullshit has occurred during my perparation phase, and I've caught myself scrambling. To be honest, there aren't as many games out there this year that set their nuts on a tee and ask you to hack away like in years past.
Quickly, has anyone seen the pictures of ND punching bag Jimmy Claussen this off-season. It's actually disturbing. He got into some trouble for competing in something called the "beer Olympics" which raised some eyebrows since he is still underage. I mean, who could ever predict that the starting QB at ND would be able to get his hands on some beer? The kid has already done several things that paint him as a douche bag...calling a press conference at the CFB Hall of Fame to announce his college choice being one of them...but this kid has grown out his hair, and maybe he went tanning or something, but he looks positively ghoulish. Kind of like 40 year old woman who just transgendered herself to live as a man. Google him for some recent pictures, and I guarantee you will not approve. I'm not a big ND honk, as you ma have guessed, but the ND quarterback should definitely NOT look like THAT!
As I mentioned, last year was an astoundingly great start to the season, as the numbered musings took home the cash on all but one offering. (I can't remember the total, and I'm much too lazy to check.)Of course, it was followed by a few weeks of mediocrity, so let's not get ahead of ourselves. Games begin Thursday night(tomorrow, or today depending on when you opened your email. Here we go.
1. Thursday Oregon St -3 @ Stanford: The task here is to try and figure out how much better Stanford is compared to last year. Our old pal Jim Harbaugh certainly did a credible job in his first season, most memorably knocking off USC in what remains the most astonishing win of the last several years in CFB. A lot of people actually would tab the Cards season last year as a success due solely to that game, and they might be right. However, I view progress when the team goes from being absolutely non-competitive to competitive in a sense that they can hang on the field with most teams without merely catching breaks, which they undoubtedly did against USC last year. They were outgained in conference by a whopping 175yards per game, worst of all BCS conference teams this side of Syracuse. Stanford is a possible play in spots where they are a double digit dog...where teams are not taking them seriously. This is the scenario in which they have won their games. Catching only 3 is really asking a lot of a team that was woefully outgained in almost every case last year, including the last time they were a 3 point home dog..v Washington. The Huskies rolled up 388 rushing yards outgaining the Cardinal 539-253. Remember, this is Washington we're talking about. Now they face Oregon St, who has been a generally solid team with a generally solid coach. They return the best players from their OL, and have a hotshot recruit at RB(name warning: Jacquizz Rogers.That will be my third son's name if we're so blessed) to replace Yvenson Bernard. They also return Sammie Stroughter at WR, who was banged up last year but has been a fantastic playmaker in the past. O D, hey have to replace their front seven, but Stanford's offense is not powerful enough to expose that. Their only chance is to be very effective in the passing game, and OSU has one of the best secondaries in the country returning. ( Stud FS Al Afalava is suspended, though>) IN short, I just think that it will be asking too much of The Dog to win this one outright. Oregon St is too solid. Their Samoans will be properly lathered for this one. It might take awhile, but I think Oregon St keeps the Cardinal at arm's length.
That's it for Thursday. I'm still looking at Friday, and I'll have Saturday's card before Friday. As for the rest of Thursday's card, Rice looks like a possibility, but it's foolish right now to even try to figure out what June Jones will do with that SMU squad. The NC State/ South Carolina game has reached 14 which might be a bit of a value for the Pack, but I can't get a handle on that one. I won't lay that much, and NC State just got hit with a couple injuries, so I could see them laying an egg. No real read on the other games.. As I mentioned...more later.
Quickly, has anyone seen the pictures of ND punching bag Jimmy Claussen this off-season. It's actually disturbing. He got into some trouble for competing in something called the "beer Olympics" which raised some eyebrows since he is still underage. I mean, who could ever predict that the starting QB at ND would be able to get his hands on some beer? The kid has already done several things that paint him as a douche bag...calling a press conference at the CFB Hall of Fame to announce his college choice being one of them...but this kid has grown out his hair, and maybe he went tanning or something, but he looks positively ghoulish. Kind of like 40 year old woman who just transgendered herself to live as a man. Google him for some recent pictures, and I guarantee you will not approve. I'm not a big ND honk, as you ma have guessed, but the ND quarterback should definitely NOT look like THAT!
As I mentioned, last year was an astoundingly great start to the season, as the numbered musings took home the cash on all but one offering. (I can't remember the total, and I'm much too lazy to check.)Of course, it was followed by a few weeks of mediocrity, so let's not get ahead of ourselves. Games begin Thursday night(tomorrow, or today depending on when you opened your email. Here we go.
1. Thursday Oregon St -3 @ Stanford: The task here is to try and figure out how much better Stanford is compared to last year. Our old pal Jim Harbaugh certainly did a credible job in his first season, most memorably knocking off USC in what remains the most astonishing win of the last several years in CFB. A lot of people actually would tab the Cards season last year as a success due solely to that game, and they might be right. However, I view progress when the team goes from being absolutely non-competitive to competitive in a sense that they can hang on the field with most teams without merely catching breaks, which they undoubtedly did against USC last year. They were outgained in conference by a whopping 175yards per game, worst of all BCS conference teams this side of Syracuse. Stanford is a possible play in spots where they are a double digit dog...where teams are not taking them seriously. This is the scenario in which they have won their games. Catching only 3 is really asking a lot of a team that was woefully outgained in almost every case last year, including the last time they were a 3 point home dog..v Washington. The Huskies rolled up 388 rushing yards outgaining the Cardinal 539-253. Remember, this is Washington we're talking about. Now they face Oregon St, who has been a generally solid team with a generally solid coach. They return the best players from their OL, and have a hotshot recruit at RB(name warning: Jacquizz Rogers.That will be my third son's name if we're so blessed) to replace Yvenson Bernard. They also return Sammie Stroughter at WR, who was banged up last year but has been a fantastic playmaker in the past. O D, hey have to replace their front seven, but Stanford's offense is not powerful enough to expose that. Their only chance is to be very effective in the passing game, and OSU has one of the best secondaries in the country returning. ( Stud FS Al Afalava is suspended, though>) IN short, I just think that it will be asking too much of The Dog to win this one outright. Oregon St is too solid. Their Samoans will be properly lathered for this one. It might take awhile, but I think Oregon St keeps the Cardinal at arm's length.
That's it for Thursday. I'm still looking at Friday, and I'll have Saturday's card before Friday. As for the rest of Thursday's card, Rice looks like a possibility, but it's foolish right now to even try to figure out what June Jones will do with that SMU squad. The NC State/ South Carolina game has reached 14 which might be a bit of a value for the Pack, but I can't get a handle on that one. I won't lay that much, and NC State just got hit with a couple injuries, so I could see them laying an egg. No real read on the other games.. As I mentioned...more later.
Pre-season Musings 2008.
Very sorry for the late update to the blog. I wasn't sure if I wanted to keep it going, but figured since I'm doing the musings, they might as well be on here. I will be cutting and pasting the first four weeks, as well as the preseason musings.
Well, another year approaches. I must say that this year has been one of the least painful waits for CFB because this Cubs team has been so interesting, and such a pleasure to watch. In previous years, I'd be so sick of the Dust Bag and his absolute ass-backward ideas on the most basic tenets of baseball, that I'd be scrambling for other outlets to pay attention to. This would lead to a vastly premature dive into all things college football. I'd generally have just about everything broken down by July 1st, then sit there and pound my pud for 45 days until it was prudent to start talking about the upcoming season, This year, the Cubs have kept me occupied.
Well, enough of that bullshit, college football is almost here. Time to pay attention to what matters. Football season, of course marks the opening of the true betting season, and I am looking forward to that, partly because I have found what an absolute gold mine fading myself can be(in all cases other than CFB sides). I look forward to fully taking advantage of my own squareness, especially when college hoops season gets started.
So here are the pre-season musings. As I've mentioned in the past, don't be surprised if teams I mention here end up being teams I play on in the coming weeks. I typically mention the teams I either like, or don't like, relative to the expectations that we might see or read in preseason chatter among the talking heads. Here are some observations:
-Georgia is ranked #1 in the country, but they'll probably fail to finish 1st in their own division in the SEC. Seriously, does Mark Richt have dirty pictures of the entire collective CFB media? The media has been on this team's jock consistently since about November 1st of last year. Nothing was more annoying than the mindless "Georgia is the hottest team and deserves to be in the MNC game" chatter we were beaten over the skull with as the BCS screeching got appreciably louder. Yes, they have some people back. Their defense looks very good. However, I am not sold on Matt Stafford, they just lost their All SEC LT to a season ending knee injury, and they have a schedule that I wouldn't wish on Lloyd Carr. Keep in mind that Florida has just about all of their playmakers back and are certainly looking for revenge after Urban Meyer got all offended when Georgia went ghetto on the Gators after that TD in Jacksonville. As long as Percy Harvin is healthy, their offense will be a scoring machine. Florida plays SEC road games at Arkansas, Vandy and Tennessee, while Georgia has South Carolina, Auburn, LSU and Kentucky as well as the Florida game at a neutral site. Tell me you wouldn't bet on Florida having a tad easier time in conference.
-Unfortunately, with the untimely firing of Bill Doba at Washington St, we have to find a new village idiot in the college football coaching ranks. Of course, there exists a myriad of candidates, as I would estimate that more than 50% of these meatheads would be unable to function in the Non-football real world. Mike Stoops at Arizona, Phil Fullmer at UT and of course Les Miles at LSU are fun choices. Tim Brewster at Minnesota established himself as a contender with his rah-rah "we will do things the right way" and "our young men will compete" drivel. But the runaway winner has to be Bill Stewart, the new HC at West Virginia. It's true that WV stomped Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl in his only game as HC, but let's take a look here. Dick Rod's OC was still there calling the plays, so he didn't have to do much in that regard. He never donned the headset at any time during the game, and spent the entire game searching diligently for people to hug. His previous head coaching experience is limited to a 8-25 record in Division II. Nevertheless, WV gave him the job. With no leftover assistants from the Dick Rod era, it should be interesting. If I'm a 'Eers fan(and thank God I'm not, because that would make me a couch burning hillbilly), I am absolutely a regular at "Fire Bill Stewart.com." South Florida is going to win that league.
Ok here are some teams I like. Obviously, you don't need me to tell you that teams like Oklahoma, Missouri, Florida, Ohio St, etc are going to be good. So I won't. They're going to be good though. Maybe Missouri I do. They'll be good....see last year for evidence on that. Moving on:
1. South Florida: Surprise! Matt Grothe is a "steely resolve" type ,the RB and most of their WRs return, as do 4/5 of their offensive linemen and most of their defensive playmakers. They still have a bitter taste in their mouths after getting teabagged by a perceived chump team(Dennis Dixon-less Oregon) in their bowl game, so there's a major shoulder chip, and their coach, though showing occasional signs of meatheadedness, is never overmatched. They are also getting used to the hype that they were new to last year. Jan 1 looks to be in their future.
2. Texas Tech: What's not to like? 2 Heisman candidates in Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, tons of receivers back, all 5 linemen back , and easily the best D that Leach has had there. If Mike Leach can figure out a way to first wake himself up, then devise some kind of plan to help them compete in Norman on November 22, they've got a great chance at an 11 win year, and maybe more.
3. Cincinnati: Another Big East team, and one nobody is talking about, but I like this team. There are some question marks at Qb, because Ben Mauk, their guy from last year was denied a 12th year of eligibility by the NCAA. However, the guy that played before Mauk transferred there, Dustin Grutza is no slouch, having started 24 times since his Freshman year. Their defense also looks to be very strong, as they return 43 combined sacks and INTs from a good D last year. I'm also very fond of their coach, Brian Kelly..Cincy is a dark horse in the Big East.
4. Indiana: Don't laugh. Ok laugh. They actually made a mistake in hiring Bill Lynch on full time, but for the short term, it might work out. This could be one of those predictions that I look back on and cringe, but hear me out. They backed into a bowl game last year, but were fairly legit, and they've got a good shot to do the same thing again, with an outside shot of reaching one of the upper tier B10 bowls due to their schedule. They miss Ohio St and Michigan(no great travesty this year)in the B10 schedule, and their NC schedule is predictably cupcake city. I actually think they made an attempt to be even more cowardly than their schedule makes them appear, since I'm sure if they could trade in Ball St and Central Michigan for a couple other MAC teams, they'd do it immediately. Their last 2 games are on the road with Purdue and Penn St, but prior to that, 8 of their first 10 are at home, and one of the road games is against Minnesota, a winnable game if there ever was one. Their home games are with Western Ky, the Racers of Murray St, aforementioned MACsters CMU and Testicle Tech, Michigan St, Iowa and Northwestern.MSU, NW and Iowa will be fighting for the same lot in life that the Hoosiers will....home field will be big in those games. They then get the Badgers at home, followed by the final two. They have a great shot to be 9-1 (the other road game is at Illinois) when they tee it up with Wisconsin, and anything less than 8-2 would have to include at least one loss as a significant favorite. As far as the team goes, Kellen Lewis should be back from his indiscretions in the offseason, and he is one of the most underrated QBs in the country. He ran for 1,000 yards and threw for 3k more with a 28-10 ratio. On defense, this will be their best squad in many years, with a lot of their playmakers returning. Most of the publications I've seen has IU coming in last in the Big Ten. I just don't think that can possibly happen. Not to belabor this point, but this looks like a pretty interesting situation. They will almost certainly be ranked into October.
5. The MAC West: There are some very good teams in this division, two of whom I mentioned already, CMU and Nad St. Cmu has one of the best players not playing in a BCS league, Benet Academy's Dan LeFevour. They also have every conceivable player back who did anything on their team last year, and they should have beaten Purdue in the bowl game. They always play a tough schedule, and they got pounded at times last year in the NC, but they will probably be more of a tough out this year when they play Georgia, Purdue and Indiana. Ball St has another good QB in Nate Davis, and a bunch of good skill guys in the passing game. Western Michigan also looks good. This might be a year that some Big Ten teams slip up against the MAC like in years past.
6. FAU: Teams looking for feeble homecoming opponents used to come calling to Florida Atlantic with check in hand, and FAU has been a willing speedbag while they've tried to build up their program, but the Owls have now graduated to a second level of sorts. The Sun Belt has been a goofy league, where upsets routinely happen because every team in the league was bad enough to get beat as a DD favorite.That is unlikely to happen this year because FAU is so far ahead of everyone else in the league now that Haugabook from Troy and his jackrabbit but rockheaded buddies have all "graduated". This was a prolific offense last year. QB Rusty Smith (great name) is another underrated QB (32/9 ratio) who led the team to 7 30+ performances, and they have everyone back. This is probably the easiest conference race to handicap in the country, even easier than the PAC 10. Not that anyone cares about the Sun Belt, but there you go.
Teams I don't like:
1. Mich Shit gan: So now they have Dick Rod. Ok, great. Explain to me, Mr Dick Rod, who is going to score your touchdowns this year? Mike Hart? Gone. Manningham? Gone. Arrington? Gone. Henne? Sucked anyway, but gone. Also, you have no quarterbacks who don't look like Lerch from the Addams Family, and your non-freshman running backs are either ineligible, on crack, or fat. Not a good fit for the run n choke(see Pitt last year) offense you run. Throw in the fact that there is only 1 returning starter on the line, and you've got some issues my friend. Actually, the guys projected to start on the OL haven't even seen much action, not even in mop up duty. Defensively, they have some guys back, but it's not like they set the world ablaze on that side of the ball last year. Frankly, they remind of Notre Dame coming into last year. They can't possibly be that bad, though. Here's hoping they are! Cheers!
2. Notre Dame: Holy shit, where do I start with this pack of non-talents.The common refrain among the talking heads is that Notre Dame will bounce back this year. I guess that's because they are Notre Dame, and they have Coach Front-Butt and his brilliant, savvy, I'm smarter than you are schemes. Do we have to remind people how bad this team was last year? In week 7, they were dead last in the NCAA in total offense by almost 100 yards per game. 4 times(4 TIMES!!!) they were held under 20 yards in a first half and failed to gain 200 yards in a game 7 times. 3 times they were held under 100 yards for an entire game. Keep in mind that when they teed it up last year, Charlie had 2 1/2 recruiting classes under his considerable belt. Did he recruit a bunch of twerps? I think not. So what does that say? He either recruited players with talent enough to be easily the worst offense in D-1, or his schemes were sorely lacking. Taking a look at his roster, it's pretty much the same guys who sucked ass last year, so where is the improvement coming from? Mr Wonderful is going to have to prove it to us. By the way, is there a more disturbing looking college football player than Jimmy Claussen. With his long hair, he looks like a newly transgendered male. He is not difficult to dislike. It's too bad, because now that I cover South Bend, and have some dealer acquaintances with close ties to the program I wouldn't mind not despising this team. Oh well.
3. Miami(FL): The free fall enabled by Skeletor Coker has been only enhanced by the overmatched Randy Shannon. When is this administration going to figure out that they can only be relevant if they get a bunch of coked up street thugs? For the third year in a row, their offense stunk, and now they have to break in another QB, probably a freshman. Defensively, they should be pretty good, but they won't score many points. They also don't have any home field advantage anymore, since they moved to whatever they call the Dolphins home stadium these days. They'll probably draw about 20k per game.
4. Louisville: How the mighty have fallen. This team used to assault whatever team had the misfortune of playing them at home. Now they are but a shell of themselves, having lost at home to Syracuse of all people, the undisputed king of the BCS weaklings. They lost just about every link to their dominant recent past this past year. All new receivers, only the fullback returns in the backfield, and the QB is new, although Hunter Cantwell has played some in the past. Defensively, they were atrocious, so they'll have to outscore people with all new skill players, unless of course they morph into a sturdy defense overnight.
others: Mostly the usual suspects...Akron will be bad, Army, Tulane, Syracuse(really bad). I think Sly Croom will return to his rightful place in the SEC JV, they'll probably get lapped by Nutt at Ole Miss, and eventually Petrino at Arkansas. Not a fan of Texas this year, and won't until they learn to play some pass D. Colt Mc Coy lost a lot of his buddies on offense too. I assume they'll reload, but whispers are that Mack Brown missed a bit on the last couple recruiting classes.
Some trends: All ATS
Under Miles, LSU is 11-2 in nonconference ATS, 6-17-3 in conference.
Saban was 1-6 as a favorite last year at Bama.
Northwestern is 0-5 as a home favorite under Pat Fitzgerald.
Missouri is 10-2 in the NC the last 3 years, Illinois is 1-6 NC in the last 2. Hmmmmmmm.
Urban Meyer is 2-9 as a road favorite at Florida.
Oregon is 12-3 as a home favorite the last 3 years.
Arizona is 1-6 as a HF under Mike Stoops.
Wyoming is 5-18 in conference over the past 3 years.
There are some others, but there are the extremes. Well, that's it for the preseason. Let's get this thing rolling. Week one musings will be coming shortly. Keep it real.
Well, another year approaches. I must say that this year has been one of the least painful waits for CFB because this Cubs team has been so interesting, and such a pleasure to watch. In previous years, I'd be so sick of the Dust Bag and his absolute ass-backward ideas on the most basic tenets of baseball, that I'd be scrambling for other outlets to pay attention to. This would lead to a vastly premature dive into all things college football. I'd generally have just about everything broken down by July 1st, then sit there and pound my pud for 45 days until it was prudent to start talking about the upcoming season, This year, the Cubs have kept me occupied.
Well, enough of that bullshit, college football is almost here. Time to pay attention to what matters. Football season, of course marks the opening of the true betting season, and I am looking forward to that, partly because I have found what an absolute gold mine fading myself can be(in all cases other than CFB sides). I look forward to fully taking advantage of my own squareness, especially when college hoops season gets started.
So here are the pre-season musings. As I've mentioned in the past, don't be surprised if teams I mention here end up being teams I play on in the coming weeks. I typically mention the teams I either like, or don't like, relative to the expectations that we might see or read in preseason chatter among the talking heads. Here are some observations:
-Georgia is ranked #1 in the country, but they'll probably fail to finish 1st in their own division in the SEC. Seriously, does Mark Richt have dirty pictures of the entire collective CFB media? The media has been on this team's jock consistently since about November 1st of last year. Nothing was more annoying than the mindless "Georgia is the hottest team and deserves to be in the MNC game" chatter we were beaten over the skull with as the BCS screeching got appreciably louder. Yes, they have some people back. Their defense looks very good. However, I am not sold on Matt Stafford, they just lost their All SEC LT to a season ending knee injury, and they have a schedule that I wouldn't wish on Lloyd Carr. Keep in mind that Florida has just about all of their playmakers back and are certainly looking for revenge after Urban Meyer got all offended when Georgia went ghetto on the Gators after that TD in Jacksonville. As long as Percy Harvin is healthy, their offense will be a scoring machine. Florida plays SEC road games at Arkansas, Vandy and Tennessee, while Georgia has South Carolina, Auburn, LSU and Kentucky as well as the Florida game at a neutral site. Tell me you wouldn't bet on Florida having a tad easier time in conference.
-Unfortunately, with the untimely firing of Bill Doba at Washington St, we have to find a new village idiot in the college football coaching ranks. Of course, there exists a myriad of candidates, as I would estimate that more than 50% of these meatheads would be unable to function in the Non-football real world. Mike Stoops at Arizona, Phil Fullmer at UT and of course Les Miles at LSU are fun choices. Tim Brewster at Minnesota established himself as a contender with his rah-rah "we will do things the right way" and "our young men will compete" drivel. But the runaway winner has to be Bill Stewart, the new HC at West Virginia. It's true that WV stomped Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl in his only game as HC, but let's take a look here. Dick Rod's OC was still there calling the plays, so he didn't have to do much in that regard. He never donned the headset at any time during the game, and spent the entire game searching diligently for people to hug. His previous head coaching experience is limited to a 8-25 record in Division II. Nevertheless, WV gave him the job. With no leftover assistants from the Dick Rod era, it should be interesting. If I'm a 'Eers fan(and thank God I'm not, because that would make me a couch burning hillbilly), I am absolutely a regular at "Fire Bill Stewart.com." South Florida is going to win that league.
Ok here are some teams I like. Obviously, you don't need me to tell you that teams like Oklahoma, Missouri, Florida, Ohio St, etc are going to be good. So I won't. They're going to be good though. Maybe Missouri I do. They'll be good....see last year for evidence on that. Moving on:
1. South Florida: Surprise! Matt Grothe is a "steely resolve" type ,the RB and most of their WRs return, as do 4/5 of their offensive linemen and most of their defensive playmakers. They still have a bitter taste in their mouths after getting teabagged by a perceived chump team(Dennis Dixon-less Oregon) in their bowl game, so there's a major shoulder chip, and their coach, though showing occasional signs of meatheadedness, is never overmatched. They are also getting used to the hype that they were new to last year. Jan 1 looks to be in their future.
2. Texas Tech: What's not to like? 2 Heisman candidates in Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, tons of receivers back, all 5 linemen back , and easily the best D that Leach has had there. If Mike Leach can figure out a way to first wake himself up, then devise some kind of plan to help them compete in Norman on November 22, they've got a great chance at an 11 win year, and maybe more.
3. Cincinnati: Another Big East team, and one nobody is talking about, but I like this team. There are some question marks at Qb, because Ben Mauk, their guy from last year was denied a 12th year of eligibility by the NCAA. However, the guy that played before Mauk transferred there, Dustin Grutza is no slouch, having started 24 times since his Freshman year. Their defense also looks to be very strong, as they return 43 combined sacks and INTs from a good D last year. I'm also very fond of their coach, Brian Kelly..Cincy is a dark horse in the Big East.
4. Indiana: Don't laugh. Ok laugh. They actually made a mistake in hiring Bill Lynch on full time, but for the short term, it might work out. This could be one of those predictions that I look back on and cringe, but hear me out. They backed into a bowl game last year, but were fairly legit, and they've got a good shot to do the same thing again, with an outside shot of reaching one of the upper tier B10 bowls due to their schedule. They miss Ohio St and Michigan(no great travesty this year)in the B10 schedule, and their NC schedule is predictably cupcake city. I actually think they made an attempt to be even more cowardly than their schedule makes them appear, since I'm sure if they could trade in Ball St and Central Michigan for a couple other MAC teams, they'd do it immediately. Their last 2 games are on the road with Purdue and Penn St, but prior to that, 8 of their first 10 are at home, and one of the road games is against Minnesota, a winnable game if there ever was one. Their home games are with Western Ky, the Racers of Murray St, aforementioned MACsters CMU and Testicle Tech, Michigan St, Iowa and Northwestern.MSU, NW and Iowa will be fighting for the same lot in life that the Hoosiers will....home field will be big in those games. They then get the Badgers at home, followed by the final two. They have a great shot to be 9-1 (the other road game is at Illinois) when they tee it up with Wisconsin, and anything less than 8-2 would have to include at least one loss as a significant favorite. As far as the team goes, Kellen Lewis should be back from his indiscretions in the offseason, and he is one of the most underrated QBs in the country. He ran for 1,000 yards and threw for 3k more with a 28-10 ratio. On defense, this will be their best squad in many years, with a lot of their playmakers returning. Most of the publications I've seen has IU coming in last in the Big Ten. I just don't think that can possibly happen. Not to belabor this point, but this looks like a pretty interesting situation. They will almost certainly be ranked into October.
5. The MAC West: There are some very good teams in this division, two of whom I mentioned already, CMU and Nad St. Cmu has one of the best players not playing in a BCS league, Benet Academy's Dan LeFevour. They also have every conceivable player back who did anything on their team last year, and they should have beaten Purdue in the bowl game. They always play a tough schedule, and they got pounded at times last year in the NC, but they will probably be more of a tough out this year when they play Georgia, Purdue and Indiana. Ball St has another good QB in Nate Davis, and a bunch of good skill guys in the passing game. Western Michigan also looks good. This might be a year that some Big Ten teams slip up against the MAC like in years past.
6. FAU: Teams looking for feeble homecoming opponents used to come calling to Florida Atlantic with check in hand, and FAU has been a willing speedbag while they've tried to build up their program, but the Owls have now graduated to a second level of sorts. The Sun Belt has been a goofy league, where upsets routinely happen because every team in the league was bad enough to get beat as a DD favorite.That is unlikely to happen this year because FAU is so far ahead of everyone else in the league now that Haugabook from Troy and his jackrabbit but rockheaded buddies have all "graduated". This was a prolific offense last year. QB Rusty Smith (great name) is another underrated QB (32/9 ratio) who led the team to 7 30+ performances, and they have everyone back. This is probably the easiest conference race to handicap in the country, even easier than the PAC 10. Not that anyone cares about the Sun Belt, but there you go.
Teams I don't like:
1. Mich Shit gan: So now they have Dick Rod. Ok, great. Explain to me, Mr Dick Rod, who is going to score your touchdowns this year? Mike Hart? Gone. Manningham? Gone. Arrington? Gone. Henne? Sucked anyway, but gone. Also, you have no quarterbacks who don't look like Lerch from the Addams Family, and your non-freshman running backs are either ineligible, on crack, or fat. Not a good fit for the run n choke(see Pitt last year) offense you run. Throw in the fact that there is only 1 returning starter on the line, and you've got some issues my friend. Actually, the guys projected to start on the OL haven't even seen much action, not even in mop up duty. Defensively, they have some guys back, but it's not like they set the world ablaze on that side of the ball last year. Frankly, they remind of Notre Dame coming into last year. They can't possibly be that bad, though. Here's hoping they are! Cheers!
2. Notre Dame: Holy shit, where do I start with this pack of non-talents.The common refrain among the talking heads is that Notre Dame will bounce back this year. I guess that's because they are Notre Dame, and they have Coach Front-Butt and his brilliant, savvy, I'm smarter than you are schemes. Do we have to remind people how bad this team was last year? In week 7, they were dead last in the NCAA in total offense by almost 100 yards per game. 4 times(4 TIMES!!!) they were held under 20 yards in a first half and failed to gain 200 yards in a game 7 times. 3 times they were held under 100 yards for an entire game. Keep in mind that when they teed it up last year, Charlie had 2 1/2 recruiting classes under his considerable belt. Did he recruit a bunch of twerps? I think not. So what does that say? He either recruited players with talent enough to be easily the worst offense in D-1, or his schemes were sorely lacking. Taking a look at his roster, it's pretty much the same guys who sucked ass last year, so where is the improvement coming from? Mr Wonderful is going to have to prove it to us. By the way, is there a more disturbing looking college football player than Jimmy Claussen. With his long hair, he looks like a newly transgendered male. He is not difficult to dislike. It's too bad, because now that I cover South Bend, and have some dealer acquaintances with close ties to the program I wouldn't mind not despising this team. Oh well.
3. Miami(FL): The free fall enabled by Skeletor Coker has been only enhanced by the overmatched Randy Shannon. When is this administration going to figure out that they can only be relevant if they get a bunch of coked up street thugs? For the third year in a row, their offense stunk, and now they have to break in another QB, probably a freshman. Defensively, they should be pretty good, but they won't score many points. They also don't have any home field advantage anymore, since they moved to whatever they call the Dolphins home stadium these days. They'll probably draw about 20k per game.
4. Louisville: How the mighty have fallen. This team used to assault whatever team had the misfortune of playing them at home. Now they are but a shell of themselves, having lost at home to Syracuse of all people, the undisputed king of the BCS weaklings. They lost just about every link to their dominant recent past this past year. All new receivers, only the fullback returns in the backfield, and the QB is new, although Hunter Cantwell has played some in the past. Defensively, they were atrocious, so they'll have to outscore people with all new skill players, unless of course they morph into a sturdy defense overnight.
others: Mostly the usual suspects...Akron will be bad, Army, Tulane, Syracuse(really bad). I think Sly Croom will return to his rightful place in the SEC JV, they'll probably get lapped by Nutt at Ole Miss, and eventually Petrino at Arkansas. Not a fan of Texas this year, and won't until they learn to play some pass D. Colt Mc Coy lost a lot of his buddies on offense too. I assume they'll reload, but whispers are that Mack Brown missed a bit on the last couple recruiting classes.
Some trends: All ATS
Under Miles, LSU is 11-2 in nonconference ATS, 6-17-3 in conference.
Saban was 1-6 as a favorite last year at Bama.
Northwestern is 0-5 as a home favorite under Pat Fitzgerald.
Missouri is 10-2 in the NC the last 3 years, Illinois is 1-6 NC in the last 2. Hmmmmmmm.
Urban Meyer is 2-9 as a road favorite at Florida.
Oregon is 12-3 as a home favorite the last 3 years.
Arizona is 1-6 as a HF under Mike Stoops.
Wyoming is 5-18 in conference over the past 3 years.
There are some others, but there are the extremes. Well, that's it for the preseason. Let's get this thing rolling. Week one musings will be coming shortly. Keep it real.
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