Week 1 Musings Continued

As I write this, it has become apparent that I need to stay away from Oregon St games in week 1. Last year, I was on Utah when they made the trip to Corvalis, and they got squashed in what turned out to be my only loss in week one. Now Oregon St has just seen the wheel fall off in Palo Alto in a game they certainly should have won. I think we all need to remember what happens when you lay points on the road with a questionable QB situation. I also wish I would have known that the previously sane Art Briles has had a lobotomy, the only explanation for his willingness to start former Miami oaf Kirby Freeman. It boggles the mind how any university would have any desire for this stiff to join their program. If I'm Art Briles, the only way I let Freeman within 12 miles of the Baylor campus is if he's donating his post mortem organs to the Baylor school of medicine for beer money, then gives me the beer. Unfortunately, Briles was somehow blinded by Freeman's ability to look good in a uniform, leading to this predictable line in their game with Wake Thursday: 4-11, 31 yards, 0 TD(naturally) and 2 INT. Baylor is an auto-fade if he isn't kicked off the team immediately.

Kudos to Oregon St for canning the horrible road unis from last year and going to a simple White jersey/pants combo with an orange stripe down the side. It's a lot beter than the monstrosities they wore last year, which featurd an orange outline on the nameplate, a look that resembled a neon orange highlighter.By the way, I'll attach some Jimmy Claussen pics to illustrate the earlier point.

Nothing, obviously for Friday. On to Saturday:

2. @Wyoming -10 1/2 v Ohio: The Bobcats figure to be one of the weaker outfits in the MAC this year, and especially in the East division, that's saying something. They have no passing game to speak of and haven't since Frank Solich took over. This year they have to replace their all time leading rusher Kalvin MCRae, who made up almost all of their offense last year.These two two teams played last year in Athens and it went down to the wire due to a punt return score and other lucky plays for Ohio. Wyoming outgained them by more than 100 yards, holding the Ohio rushing attack to 1.0 per carry. If they couldn't run it at home with their all time leading rusher last year, how do we like their chances this year in Laramie against a defense that returns all of it's run stoppers? Also remember that in their opener last year, Wyoming bludgeoned a Virginia squad to the tune of a 438-100 yard advantage who played on 1/1. I don't like Wyoming in conference, but in this case, they are a good play. Wyoming also will be using a new QB, which is no big deal since incumbent Karsten Sween has a 12/17 ratio last year. I don't like Ohio's chances to put up much in the way of points. I can se a 27-3 type game here.

3. Utah +3 1/2 @Michigan: I actually got this at 4 on BetUS. A I've mentioned, this game reminds me a lot of the ND/GT game in week one last year, although I'm not as sold on Utah as I was on GT last year. Michigan simply has no players on offense. New QB, new RBs, new Wrs and most alarming, almost all new offensive linemen. Some of these linemen have never seen the field either, so we're not talking about guys switching positions, or former backups stepping in. These guys have never played. In addition, at QB, we are talking about a discarded Ga Tech transfer and a walk-on. Not exactly what MIchigan is used to. On the flip side, Utah has a loaded squad back, including QB Johnson, all his running backs and most of his receiving crew. On defense, Utah has 3 big Samoans on the line, so it might be tough for the new Michigan OL to contain them. Maybe they can just roll those winged helmets on the field and a win will occur, but I think Utah has some high expectations for themselves.

4. @Kansas -36 v Florida International: Most people will tell you that FIU would bring up the rear in any 1 through 118 ranking of all D-1 schools. They are simply pathetic.Last year Kansas pounded them 55-3, and KU will almost certainly be able to name the score here as well. Kansas is a team that had a fantastic year last year, losing only once, but remains somewhat under the radar among the talking heads. They have most of their team back, including efficient QB Todd Reesing and a solid defense. They will probably be looking to disembowel the sad sacks from FIU to serve notice that they are ready again to commence ass-kicking this year. They'll kick the shit out of FIU and then throw in some swirlies after the game for good measure.

5. @Cal -4 1/2 v MIchigan St: Some people are down on Cal since they have lost a ton of talent at WR as well as Justin Forsett in the backfield, but Jahvid Best will almost certainly be better than Forsett, and Cal took a lot or crap for their "primadonna" ways last year.The departure of the receivers is almost certainly a good thing, as the new guys are highly recruited and regarded. MSU took some heavy losses as well, losing their top two pass catchers. Cal returns a veteran line anchored by an All American at Center and faces an MSU D line with 3 new starters. Many people point to MSU's schedule last year and point out that they were "in" every game. That's great, and I cannot argue with that but I think it was the large breasted Bill Parcels who once advised that "Every team is what it's record says it is." That's the case with MSU. Asking them to go cross country to play a team with better atheletes than them and only catch 4 1/2 is vey tough proposition.

6. @Oregon -13 v Washington: First of all, Oregon is 12-3 ATS as a home favorite over the past 3 years. Now they face what they still consider a rivalry opponent in Washington. This is somewhat laughable, as Ty Willingham has taken the baton from previous village idiot Keith Gilbertson and taken UW further into an abyss their fans wish was only a horrible nightmare. Oregon loses Dennis Dixon and RB Jonathan Stewart, but they have been excited about the play of ttheir new RBs.QB Justin Roper who engineered the beatdown of South Florida in their bowl, now is starting by virtue of an injury to their projected starter. I doubt that will make much difference. Oregon returns a stout offensive line against Ty Willingham's flimsy unit. EVERYONE other than Jake Locker is gone on the offensive side of the ball for UW so unless Locker intends to just break 11 tackles on each play, the Huskies might struggle to score. Oregon has a chance to be very good on both sides of the ball this year. Looks like a bad matchup off the bat for Ty and co.


7. East Carolina +9 1/2 v Virginia Tech: This is a neutral site game in Charlotte. Let me first say that I like Skip Holtz. There was some question about him when he bungled the end of his tenure under his dad at South Carolina, and some snickered when he got this job, but East Carolina has been a very solid squad since he took over. This year, they open with VT on a neutral field. Last year, they hung with VT in Blacksburg for the duration, losing 17-10 thanks to a defensive TD late in the game thrown by ECU's backup QB. In that game, the total yardage was even, and ECU stuffed Branden Ore and the Hokie for 33 yards on 31 carries. This year, they return almost their entire front 7. VT has lost about all of their skill guys other than QB Sean Glennon, who is improved but is hardly a kind of QB who can win a game for you by himself. They almost certainly will have to run it to be effectively offensively, but there is no evidence that they'll be able to do that. Defensively, VT will be stout, but they lose their top 3 playmakers on defense. ECU has some skill guys coming back including QB Patrick Pinkney, who had an 11/4 ratio last year. His backup, who did not play in the VT game last year, Rob Kass had a 9/4 ratio, so even if a VT does a Jefferson from Fast Times at Ridgemont High on him and leaves him twitching on the turf, ECU has a guy to step in. I think ECU sees this as a great opportunity, and certainly doesn't lack confidence after trading blows with VT last year. The lack of homefield advantage for VT might make the difference. As long as ECU doesn't give VT the obligatory defensive or ST touchdown, I think they have a great shot in this one. You might even be able to get it at 10.

8. TCU -6 1/2 @New Mexico: I really hate laying points on the road in situations like this, but I can't resist here. New Mexico is generally a solid squad, especially defensively, and good at home. However, this year, they are rebuilding completely, with nobody back on defense, and all but one of their offensive linemen taking the field for the first time for the Lobos. TCu, on the other hand, has most of their team back. This year, the Frogs actually look to have a pretty solid offense, something they've lacked the past couple of years, with a legitimate throwing QB. Their running game should be as good as normal. On defense, they will be stout again with a solid secondary and a formidable front 7. They key to this game is to look at last year's matchup. I realize things like revenge and attrition come into play, but TCU absolutely pig roasted New Mexico last year to the tune of a 421-119 yard advantage and a 37-0 victory. New Mexico is worse than last year, considerably, and TCU is appreciably better. I just think it will be tough for the Lobos to compete in this one, especially with the clear edge at the line of scrimmage.

9. @Nebraska -14 v Western Michigan: WMU should be a decent MAC squad, but this is a spot that will be tough for them to handle. Nebraska spent last year getting torched on defense, leading to the gleeful shitcanning of the failed Bill Callahan and the arrival of everyone's best friend Bo Pelini, who many felt should have gotten the job when Frank Solich was fired several years ago. Offensively, Nebraska didn't really have any problems last year, especially after Joe Ganz stepped in at QB. They shouldn't have any issues keeping that red- faced red clad mob in that stadium happy when they have the ball in this one either. Defensively, I'd look for an inspired effort in their first game under Pelini. WMU should really be getting 20 or so in this game.

Others: Akron has a chance to be very bad this year in the MAC, and they open at Wisconsin getting less than 30(28). I'm not a fan of Wisconsin's QB, so I can't completely recommend this one, but it's highly likely the Badgers will have their way with the Zips.....at first glance, FAU looked really good to me catching 24 from a team(Texas) that can't stop the pass, but the rumor is that Muschamp(new DC) has UT rolling on that side of the ball. If that's the case, the 24 probably isn't enough.....Even though Minnesota was a living joke last year, especially defensively, they finished the year clicking on all cylinders offensively and have the primary suspects back. They only have to lay 7 at home to a NIU team that completely shat the bed last year. I like NIU's new coach Jerry Kill)(could a football coach's name get any better?) and NIU has everyone back, but they look to me to be a pedestrian outfit offensively, so MInny might be able to keep them under wraps. If NIU can't put up 24-28 in this one, they're unlikely to be able to cover because Minnesota will probably pile up some points on them.....K State will probably blow out North Texas(-27), even though they lose some good players on offense.....Everyone in the world expects a collapse from Hawaii, and there is no doubt that they will see a huge drop off offensively, but they have some defensive talent, and might catch Florida napping a bit. 35 is a ton of points.....Northwestern's inability to ever cover as a home favorite has me unable to consider them -11 with Syracuse, but they really should lay the wood to the Orange, who are without question the worst team in a non-BCS conference. How Greg Robinson still has a job is beyond me. He is about a 1-5 favorite to be the first coach canned. The over/under on his departure should be set at week 5. That's it for now. I might add a couple for tomorrow and Monday....considering Kentucky, Tennessee and maybe Fresno St. Take Care.