Week 5 Musings

Last week was a suckfest, 4-7, bringing the musings winning percentage down with a thud to about 54% (21-18). Man is that disappointing. The stated goal is 60%, which is now going to be very difficult to hit. I guess that's a pretty lofty goal...maybe we'll bring it down to 57%. Hell, we live under a socialist government anyway, why not change the rules as we go? If anyone has any questions about where I stand on this bailout situation, please refer to the comments of the Hon Sen Jim Bouton(R-Ky). You should be able to find them easily enough.

I could probably complain about a couple of the late bad beats among the musings last week, but I won't because for every bad beat there was a game that was obviously the wrong side. Liked both of the dogs tonight. As I write this, USC is coming back on Oregon St. At halftime, it was 21-0. OSU held a 224-73 yardage edge and a 17-3 first down edge. As it stands now, it's 21-14, and the yardage is at 235-224 OSU with a 18-11 FD edge. I guess we're seeing a comeback. I hope not because I snuck in a +1600(for 5 bucks) money line bet on the Beavs right under the gun. Obviously, I liked OSU tonight, +24, but a lot of good that does anyone now.

A quick rant. Is there any way that someone can gather all the NFL game officials together, give them a collective blast to the chops and explain to them that they are now forbidden to call any personal foul penalties that impact possession of the ball(i.e. in the Bears game last weekend) when they have no clue what actually happened in a scrum? In the Bears example, there was obviously a melee, caused undoubtedly by some uncouth behavior, likely from players on both teams. The referee, however, takes it upon himself to penalize only one team, drastically changing the result on the field as a result of something that had no bearing whatsoever on the actual scrimmaging. As we know, every meathead announcer will point out with lightning-fast certainty that "it's always the second guy who gets caught." Since every dullard in the world knows this to be true because we have all seen it happen a million times, aren't referees catching on that they probably missed something within the melee which led to the second guy "retaliating"? Either start paying fucking attention to the game so you might occasionally catch all parties, or stop making complete asses of yourselves by making a game changing call based on something you didn't even see the entirety of. Every person in that stadium knew that there was certainly a Tampa Bay player just as guilty as Charles Tillman in that scenario, yet only one penalty was called on the play. That cannot happen. From now on, referees should be forbidden to call a penalty on only one team in situations in which a melee has ensued. Then you won't have these "crafty instigators" trying to stir things up, as Trueblood gleefully admitted to after the game, because there wouldn't be any point to it. We also won't have referees looking like total buffoons, constantly getting fooled. Not that Tillman should have been stupid enough to give the referees any opportunity to make buffoons of themselves, of course.

OK. I just took a break to look in on this USC/Beavs game, USC has the ball deep in their own territory down 21-14 with 3 minutes left and Mark Sanchez, naturally, at the smallest smidgen of pressure, overthrows his receiver and gets picked. The DB returns the ball to the 2. USC has 1 timeout and there is 2:48 left. I immediately suggest that the Oregon St RB takes the handoff and dives to the line of scrimmage, forcing USC to take it's last timeout. One second down, do it again. On third down, try to score. By now, USC is down to under 1 minute, with no timeouts. So what does OSU do? Scores on the first play, taking 2 seconds off the clock, then clangs the Xpt. 27-14. If USC scores, (which they will undoubtedly do, probably almost immediately), gets an onside kick, and scores again, someone needs to be fired. It's a longshot, but it could still happen, and they had a chance to ice the game with only a modicum of reflection.

1. (Friday) @ Louisville -3 1/2 v UConn: I've had bad luck on the Friday games thus far, but for whatever reason, I feel compelled to go back to the well here. Louisville was very impressive last week against K State, a team that had looked impressive up until they played Louisville. Hunter Cantwell got himself on track in that game, and it appears that Louisville, under Ron English, is drastically improved on defense, especially against the run. SO far this year they've only surrendered 1.9 ypc on the ground, and that's against a couple decent outfits, as both K State and Kentucly could not run on them. UConn will be their biggest test in that regard. However, QB Tyler Lorenzen has been a nightmare throwing the ball, as his ghastly 1/6 ratio will attest. If they have to throw it, which I assume they will, they will be in grave danger of giving the Cards a short field. It also appears that Louisville has come up with a couple of playmakers in WR Doug Beaumont and RB Victor Anderson. UConn gave up yards consistently on their home field to Baylor, so I can see no reason why Louisville won't be able to do the same in Papa John's stadium. Louisville also has payback on their minds for getting screwed on that bogus punt return last year at UConn.

2. @Clemson -11 v Maryland: In most cases, I would expect this line to be somewhere around 18 or so, but because Maryland handled Cal a couple weeks ago, and since Clemson has thoroughly disappointed everyone with their cowardly play so far this year, this spread is at a manageable number. Maryland is on a nice 2 game winning streak, with the win over Cal and a comfortable win against Eastern Michigan last week. However, in those games, the Terps allowed 453 yards to Eastern Michigan and 461 against Cal. Offensively, they put some points up, but in the Cal game, most were due to shoddy play or turnovers by Cal, as they only gained 260 yards for the game. I think Clemson is a significantly better team, with some unrealized potential to be explosive. Good defenses have the ability to hang around with them, but this is not necessarily a good defense, and away from the friendly environs of College Park and the EMU defense, the Maryland offense will likely see a decline in production as well. In their other road game this year, they lost by 10 to MTSU, despite having their running game working and hitting on a couple big plays. The chances of either happening against Clemson are remote, since RB Scott is still banged up. I think this is the week that Clemson explodes like they're capable of, setting up more heartache in the coming weeks when it doesn't continue and they go back to being a bunch of gutless wonders.

3. Navy + 16 @ Wake Forest. We all know Wake's troubles as home favorites. They improved in that role last year, but failed to cover their last time out in this position against Ole MIss. Now that Kaipo is back under center and Coach Ken has rid himself of that poor excuse for an option QB Jarrod Parker, we can get back to tailing Navy, especially in cases like this, when they are catching significant points against a non-explosive offense. Navy is very hard to blow out because they consume so much clock, unless of course they play a rock headed idiot at QB who doesn't display the good judgment the Good Lord gave to an ant.

4. UAB +26 1/2 @South Carolina: Let's first be clear, UAB has one sorry defense. They haven't stopped a soul this year, and it's questionable whether they ever will again. However, offensively, they have been pretty good, showing good balance and an ability to toss it around a little bit if necessary. This week, South Carolina has suspended starting RB Mike Davis, and WR Kenny McKinley, easily their best player on offense, is doubtful, and likely to be held out until the Ole Miss game next week. South Carolina's lack of firepower on offense will make UAB's defensive shortcomings a little less evident, and with a half hearted effort, the Cock D will probably give up some points. South Carolina doesn't score enough to cover this big a number, especially with such uncertainty at QB and their two best players likely missing. If they shut out UAB they could cover, but unless UAB gets stopped on downs a bunch of times inside the 20, they'll put up some points.

5. Colorado +5 1/2 v Florida St: This game is in Jacksonville, so it isn't a true home game for the 'Noles, though they did beat Alabama here rather handily last year. It's probably a good thing too, since FSU fans certainly wouldn't take long to make their feelings known with a vengeance should a repeat of last week's absolute offensive debacle be evident. I will predict that long time whipping boy Drew Weatherford will be back out there for the Noles if the other two stiffs struggle. After watching a good portion of Florida St's game with wake last week, I can't imagine them putting together much of anything on offense. Both Qbs looked lost, Jimbo Fisher appeared headed for an insane asylum, and Bobby Bowden was dadgummin it up all night. Colorado, of course has some offensive talent, and is competent on defense. I can easily see a straight up win here for the Buffs, and certainly would suggest that FSU won't be able to mount enough of an attack to win going away.

6. @LSU -25 v Mississippi St: Sly Croom's bunch is bad. We've established that. At home they can occasionally play enough defense to stay in the game, but on the road, they are just not dong anything right, as last weeks blowout loss to Ga Tech indicates. As we have often surmised, the chances of them scoring a single point on LSU is about 50/50, and the yes 50 is tiptoe-ing toward the door. If LSU gets things going at all, and they have shown a very solid ability to run the ball on anyone this year, this game will end up 38-3.

7. Ole Miss +23 @Florida: This is just a lot of points for a team that has some good athletes, and has put together some decent performances this year. Florida is in a let down spot after the Tennessee victory, and Tebow and company just haven't put things together offensively. Perhaps this might be the week, but I think Ole Miss will keep this one close. Even in their best years, Florida plays a couple close tough home games.

8. Western Michigan - 4 1/2 @Temple: Again, back to the well fading Temple. This week the Owls face off with Western Michigan and QB Tim Hiller, he of the 14/3 ratio this year. Temple has received good QB play from Adam DeMichelle, but he got injured last week. The scattershot backup is one of these "athelete" types who struggled like crazy in Happy Valley during garbage time. I don't think Temple will have enough offense with the backup to hang with the Broncos this week.

9 @Toledo -20 v Florida INternational: Toledo piled up more than 600 yards on Fresno last week in an overtime loss. FlINt is in some trouble because teams generally play terrible in the Glass Bowl. I don't see the GPs being able to stop the Rockets, and FLInt is dead last, as usual in total offense. FIU is getting some consideration among bettors due to their sloppy game with USF, in which USF was looking ahead. Good line value here, because Toledo probably wins easily.


Others: I love the Illini, but I have never seen such a matchup as this one with Penn St. Never have I seen a game where one team has such an advantage in every conceivable category. Penn St has run it at will on everyone, Illinois has struggled to stop the run. Penn St has stopped the run, UI hasn't gotten their running game going. The two teams played last year, at Illinois, and Penn State outplayed them but lost due to the boneheaded play of QB Morelli, who is about the only guy that ISN'T back for Penn St. Now Penn St is better, Illinois is worse, the game is at Penn St, at night, and the Nittanies have ALL of the motivation. I have a feeling that the Illini are satisfied with themselves and pretty content with their lot in life coming off the Rose Bowl. They aren't anywhere near as hungry as Penn St is. The only reason that I'm not on this one like a cheap suit is because the line has gotten up to 16 1/2. If this for whatever reason drops to 14 or less, my advice would be to unload, work up another batch, and unload again........I have a feeling Ohio St(-18) gets healthy on the Goofers this week. With Terrelle Prior at the helm, OSU becomes more of a legitimate offensive outfit. Minny still has defensive problems, I suspect...Memphis is catching 2 at home against Arky St this week. While I have great admiration for Arky State's ability to outgain whoever they play, Memphis is a pretty good squad this year, especially on offense. If ASU can come in there and handle Memphis, they can certainly handle the Sun Belt this year. I don't see it though......Another hunch that Indiana sacks up and plays well at home with MSU coming off that Ball St debacle. Remember that MSU is coming off the ND win, so a letdown is possible. Kellen Lewis is tough to stop for everyone. I can see IU hanging within the 8, although not many of my degenerate bretheren can......Arkansas is getting 27 1/2 at Texas. Although they burned me to a crisp last week, I think they catch UT in a tough spot coming off two covers in a row. Again, I do not believe that Arkansas is this bad. Hopefully they'll show it this week...as long as they tell Casey Dick which color the opponent is wearing, they should have a better chance......Northwestern has been struggling more than usual offensively, especially Bacher, who has not gotten it going at all. Sutton appears ready to go, but so is Iowa, and they are not happy with their result from last week. They're laying 8, I think they'll cover that despite their conservative nature when leading. Houston might also catch East Carolina napping since they are much better than their record suggests.That's it for this week. Be good.