Week 3 Musings

After week 2, we stand at 13-7 on the numbered musings for the year, a 65% clip. The stated goal, as it is every year is 60%, which is a lofty number to get to. The last couple of years, we were in the neighborhood up until the last couple of weeks, where we settled in at the 58% area. Nothing to sneeze at, but we'll keep trying to get to 60%, which is statshark/accuscore territory. Last week, we could have probably snagged a couple more victories if not for some bullshit. First of all, Coach Numatiolonolo or whatever the hell his name is at Navy needs to get my buddy Kaipo back under center quickly. The QB they used last week, Jarrod Bryant, I think, made a complete jackass of himself on Friday night trying to run the triple option. Navy QBs have always been adept at making the correct reads in the TO, pounding the FB when necessary and pitching to the fleet wingbacks at the right moment. Also, keep in mind that they now have a bonafide star in RB Shun White, who, unlike most previous Navy backs, has the ability to break tackles and line up in a power I if necessary. Bryant, however chose several kamikaze dives into the chest of the Ball St nose tackle rather than pitching it to White, both in the red zone in the first half and during almost the entire 4th Q. It resulted in 34 carries for Bryant, not what Navy, or Pete LaVette or any chump unlucky enough to bet on this guy would ever want. It led to only 23 points and a cover failure by the Middies despite the fact that BSU had no chance to stop a well-executed option. So lets all extend a big collective middle finger to Jarrod Bryant and hope he gets hit by cement truck, or at least fails to find his way onto the field for the rest of the season.

We also got unlucky that UConn decided the endzone was mined, and better attacked via the Field Goal. Whatever.

I also must report that the chances of the musings being free of typos or grammatical errors are pretty slim this week, since my brain exploded while I was trying to handicap the ND/Michigan game. The goal when handicapping these games is to find some positives and negatives on both sides, but hell ifI can find any positives for either one of these fiascoes. If I had to pick one I guess I'd have to go with ND, since they have the edge in QB play and are playing at home. I just can't see Michigan's QBs having much success at all on the road, even against Coach Front-butt and his sissy boys.

On to this week:

1. FRIDAY @South Florida -3 v Kansas: So far I've been on both of these teams a total of 3 times in two weeks. Kansas covered last week, but they have had an alarmingly difficult time running the ball effectively against some legitimately brutal competition. FIU and La Tech both held their running game completely in check, and now the Jayhawks have to travel to the heat and humidity of Tampa and deal with a very good team in a tough environment. The reason they've struggled to run it has everything to do with their line, which features two freshmen at the tackle positions. One of the tackles will have to block USF wildman George Selvie, the nation's leading returning sacker. They jury is still out on the KU defense as well, as they have played no offensive talent yet this year. Unless Todd Reesing has a superhuman effort, I can't see KU staying all that close in this one. USF will be whipped into a frenzy in this national TV atmosphere, and they are the kind of team you do not want to deal with when they are whipped into a frenzy.

2. ALSO Friday @Baylor -2 v Washington St. This game was moved to Friday night due to the coming havoc of Hurricane Ike. I'm troubled by this decision because it has led to me losing 5 1/2 points of line value on this game, since I jumped on it earlier this week when Baylor was a 3 1/2 point underdog, and when the game was rescheduled, my bet was canceled. To say that he early line was a bad line is like saying they had some rain when Noah built the ark. In case you didn't notice, Washington St had a rough time with Cal last weekend at home. We've gone over the concept of "village idiot" coaches before, but Wazzou is the latest example of the biggest danger of finding yourself with one of these meatheads at the helm of your program. It's the aftermath. It's the complete wasteland your program becomes when the scourge is eradicated and you're left with the mess. "You" in this case is new WSU coach Paul Wulff, who actually might have some VA tendencies himself. Anyway, getting back to the Cal game, this wasn't just a blowout, this was Sherman vs Atlanta. Mike Tyson Vs Marvis Frazier. The Headless Horseman vs Ichabod Crane. You get the picture. 66-3. 505-167 in total yards. Javid Best ran for 200 yards in basically the first half on 12 carries. Gary Rogers, the WSU QB has looked as bad as humanly possible. Their offense was so bad, they trotted out all three of their helpless quarterbacks with no success. It's a bad scene in Pullman. Now they travel to Waco to play Baylor, no juggernaut themselves. However, they improved throughout the game in their opener against Wake when they reversed the cataclysmic decision to start all time buffoon Kirby Freeman at QB and went with the athletic Robert Griffin. They got some confidence by blowing out a 1-AA opponent last week, and should be ready to take care of business this week. I think Art Briles is settling in, and expect him to put the wood to Wulff in the coaching matchup here. To expect Washington St to be anything close to a favorite on the road when they have looked as bad as they have indicates that the past reputation of the programs has influenced this line. Yeah, Baylor as a favorite seems pretty questionable, but this WSU team, with it's tandem inability to move the ball or stop anyone, can't be expected to compete on the road with anyone, and that certainly includes a Kirby Freeman-free Baylor team.



3. @Buffalo -6 v Temple: A recent phenomenon in college football linesmaking is the overreaction when traditional doormats get some momentum and actually start competing with people. When Army got Bobby Ross as a coach, after about the 3rd or 4th game, you started to see the Cadets being tagged with short lines on the road, being favored at home, etc. And would be handicappers(myself included in some cases) would be all over them, touting Army in an attempt to look smarter than everyone else. Army would then lose, or get blasted, and the same thing would happen the next week. This is now happeneing with Temple. They have all of their starters back from last year, when they won a couple games and actually competed. They are, however, getting to much respect, and that began last week when they were only a TD underdog to UConn. Now we all know that UConn squaeaked that game out in OT, but Temple was lucky to even be in that game, as UConn did everything they could including INTs and fumbles in the end zone on more than one occasion. Now Temple travels to Buffalo, an actual legitimate improved team worthy of the new consideration. Temple has been outgained by Army and mostly dominated by UConn in it's two games. Meanwhile, Buffalo blew out a previously explosive UTEP team and played Pitt to a standstill on the road. Last year, these two teams matched up in Philly, and Buffalo slapped them around in a 42-7 game with a 414-141 yardage edge. Temple is getting too much respect here. Buffalo rolls.

4. Georgia -7 @South Carolina: This one is painful for me to be on, since it's a highly public side..I think 75% are on this side at wagerline, but I really am in agreement with the unwashed masses on this one. It's time to start facing facts. The OBC is overrated. He's had 4 years to get his shit together at South Carolina, and still doesn't have a signal caller he can depend on. All of his QBs are terribly mistake prone. There is very little doubt that whoever lines up under center will make at least a couple boneheaded decisions, and they cannot afford that in this game. Being at home might actually be a detriment here, as the natives are restless coming off that Vandy implosion. South Carolina is going to struggle mightily in their attempts to score on Georgia in any case, but now that their top playmaker WR Kenny McKinley is out, or will be severely limited, it wil become almost impossible for them to get anything going. The flip side is that South Carolina is rumored to have a very good defense, and that might be true, but I'm skeptical, as every team they faced with a pulse last year let them up. I have a feeling they'll be exposed as well by the Dawg attack. The momentum is all negative for the Cocks, and I can envision a thorough beatdown here. Keep in mind that Georgia, after being heaped with praise in the preseason, has been relegated back to afterthought status, and my guess is tht they aren't too happy about that. They also lost at home to USC last year, so the folks in Columbia definitely have heir attention. Unless tHE Cocks get all the breaks and play completely out of their gourds, they are going to have a rough time in this one.

5. Central Michigan -3 @Ohio U: Every year seems to be the same drill for CMU. They play some vicious competition early, get their heads handed to them, then settle into their place as the best team in the MAC. This line is short based on overreactions from last week. It's true that Ohio has played admirably in their first two games, traveling all the way out to Laramie Wyoming and giving Wyoming a tussle, and then turned in their gutsy performance last week in Columbus. CMU got pasted in Athens, GA, although they hung in for awhile. The truth is that CMU is a significantly better team than Ohio, especially on offense. I think it might be asking too much for the Bobcats to return home after two tough losses and beat a team like CMU. I have a feeling Ohio will crash to earth, especially if the starting QB Theo Scott can't go.

6. Houston -2 V Air Force in Dallas: So far Air Force has looked very good in it's two games, including a 23-3 win at Wyoming last week. A closer look at that game, however shows that Wyoming lost 4 fumbles, and that Air Force actually struggled running the ball most of the game. We already know that Wyoming doesn't have as much as was previously thought, so this win doesn't look as impressive after some close inspection. AF had a nice year last year, but lost all of their skill guys and there is some question as to whether they guys in place can get it done, including QB Shea Smith, who looked terrible in their bowl game last year when he was pressed into action. If they can't move it on Houston, that will be telling, because judging from their defensive performance against Oklahoma St last week, they are going to struggle on defense this year. However, as bad as they will struggle on defense, they will probably be that good on offense. They scored at will on Okie St last week in the 56-37 loss, and have good players back from a very good offense last year, including QB Case Keenum. I think this will be the game that Air Force gets exposed for their inexperience and lack of skill on offense. I don't think they'll be able to keep up with Houston's offense. The change in venue brought the spread down to an inconsequential number, and I definitely think that Houston is the likely winner in this one.

7. Iowa St +14 @Iowa: Get the 14 quick, because it's 13 1/2 in some spots. Iowa has looked good so far this year, but that has been against Maine and Florida International, so there isn't much we can go off of there. Iowa St also comes in 2-0, and is coming off a win over the Hawkeyes last year. Iowa still doesn't have their QB situation figured out, and is very inexperienced in the running game. Also, Iowa St has covered in this series in 9 out of the last 10 years. For some reason, they have Iowa's number. ISU's offense has improved, and they got appreciably better as the year went on. Iowa should obviously be the favorite in this one, but not 2 TD's.

8. Oregon -8 @Purdue: I am really not sold on Purdue this year. It's true that Curtis Painter is one of the better QBs in the conference, but their defense looks weak, and they have issues at the receiver position. This play is based more on a feeling than anything else, as I just can't see the Boilers sacking up and turning in a good performance against a quality opponent like Oregon who has not been stopped on a drive yet this year. Their defense is also very good, especially in the secondary. Purdue might be able to hang for awhile early, but I don't see them representing for the Big Ten against one of the Pac 10's elite.

9. SMU +36 1/2 @ Texas Tech: I realize that SMU has not looked very good thus far, especially on defense, but Good Lord, 36 1/2 points? I think that June Jones can muster up some points in this one, as TT's defense has struggled in both of their games this year, giving up almost 500 yards to Nevada last week, in a game they easily could have lost, and giving up 27 points to E Washington. There have also been some rumblings that Graham Harrell has looked somewhat lost so far this year since a #2 receiver behind Crabtree has not yet emerged. I suppose it's possible that TT breaks out and hangs 70 on SMU this week, but I don't think SMU is that bad of a squad. They'll lose, but I would find it difficult to think that they can't stay within 5 TDs.

10 USC -whatever v Ohio St: I'm sorry. I hate to do this, but USC is going to run Ohio St out of the stadium. USC is going to want to leave no doubt, hang half a hundred, whatever. Not that I think USC can roll all over Ohio St on offense, but I am damn sure that they are going to absolutely dominate Ohio St on defense. The fact is that Todd Boeckman has not had a good game since before the Illinois game last year. The speed of the USC defense will overwhelm Ohio St, who has shown a pedestrian offense . Keep in mind the common opponent: Illinois. How did the Illini fare against these two teams? One, they physically handled, the other...well, we know what happened. I just have a hard time coming up with a scenario in which Ohio St can move the ball on these guys, Beanie Wells or no Beanie Wells. Even if Ohio St plays well, theyre still likely to give up 24-27 points, and I can't see OSU getting much more than about 10 points in this one at the most. Again, I think USC has this circled as the game of the year, since their conference schedule is weak, and OSU will get their best effort. I'm not sure that there are many teams that can handle USC's best effort in a big game like this in the Colosseum, but I can guarantee you that Ohio St, at this point, is not one of them. Another Big Ten team goes out there and gets blasted.

11. MTSU +18 @Kentucky: Kentucky hasn't really been tested yet this season, but this is a spread that should be reserved for the Kentucky team from last year. The one that had some weapons on offense. This Kentucky squad is ok on offense, but does not have the firepower to cover a significant spread against a decent squad like MTSU, who last week handled Maryland rather easily. It's true that Kentucky won easily at Louisville in week 1, but that was more a result of Louisville hurting itself than Kentucky doing anything outstanding. If Kentucky doesn't bring their A game, MTSU will give them all they can handle, as they have a competent offense that should be able to put up some numbers on Kentucky if they aren't careful.

12 Western Kentucky +28 @ Alabama: I bet against Bama last week, since they were coming into an obvious letdown spot, and because they almost never cover as a home favorite, but I didn't make it a musing because I was completely in the dark about how good or bad Tulane might be. New coaching staff, best player gone, etc. Well, Tulane went in to Tuscaloosa and dominated Alabama in the box score, just not on the scoreboard due to some big plays. The inability to cover at home, mortal beatdown of Clemson in week one notwithstanding, remains for the Tide. Western Kentucky is in their first year in the Sun Belt, but they have been a decent squad in 1-AA in recent years. Alabama just isn't set up offensively to blow people away, and I think the trend continues here in this one.


Others: To be honest, there are a lot of games I like this week...it was hard to narrow them down. I think in most cases, it's unlikely that a team can generally isnt very good can go on the road and give solid performances two weeks in a row. That's why I like San Jose St (-6)to handle San Diego St at home. SJSU plyed Nebraska to a standstill last week, and comes home to face an Aztec team that looked good in South Bend. Lots of teams do that lately..and there is something to be said about the adrenaline of playing in front of TD Jesus. Now they return to Cali to play a team that still has an inferiority complex to them and beat them soundly last year. Letdown time for the Aztecs.....UConn is laying 11 at home to Virginia. I think Uva stinks, and their QB is out on suspension so they will be using a green youngster under center, but Uconn can't get the ball in the endzone. Their QB Lorenzen has a 0-4 ratio in games against Temple and Hofstra. I have to think Virginia has better defenses than those two, and actually did a decent job of stopping USC's run on a per carry basis. If they can muster 10 points, I would think they would cover that spread......ECU is in the ultimate letdown spot on the road at Tulane, laying 13. Yeah, that's the same Tulane team that held Bama to 172 total yards and outgained them by 146 in Tuscaloosa. It definitely sets up as an interesting situation. ECU is too good to lose here, but they could be in for a tussle......Until Florida Atlantic proves they can hang with a quality opponent on the road, I'm going to fade them at spreads under 20. That's the case when they travel to play a good Michigan St team catching 17 1/2......I think Fresno is a tad bit overrated after seeing what happened to Rutgers last night. I think they'll have a hard time stopping Wisconsin's running attack, and I think they'll struggle more than people think trying to move it on the Badgers. Wisconsin should win this one.....I also wouldn't be surprised if Clemson sleepwalks through their game with NC State and finds themselves in a tight one late. They are a huge disappointment so far.....Akron is catching 7 at home against Ball St. Perhaps another letdown spot here for Nad St coming off a fortunate win over Navy. Akron has looked pretty good on offense in both of their games, so I think Ball St has a good chance of dropping this one outright if they aren't clicking completely on offense....Well, that's about it for this week. Hopefully, we'll all prosper. Take care and pound, pound, pound.