Week 2 Musings

Well, here we are already at week 2. As usual, the musings got off to a good start in the opening week. I'm still pretty convinced that Vegas and the online books set soft lines in favor of favorites in the first week in order to get the lemmings all proud of themselves early. Then, once everyone settles in for the long haul, a tsunami of pain is unleashed, and all the would be geniuses find themselves rifling their remotes through their 45 inch plasmas that they'll end up having to hock. Whatever, it's nice to get off to a good start. 6-3 for the week.

The highlight of the week for me was getting to watch Coach Dick Rod and his band of ill-fitting misfits bumble all over the field in the Big House. Naturally, it should have been much worse than the final score indicated, as Utah, in it's desperate attempt to avoid shitting itself, packed it in offensively in the 2nd half. They could afford to do it too, since Michigan's offensive execution was about as sharp as a doorknob. 2 of their TD's came almost exclusively courtesy of some very bad pass interference calls. As a matter of fact, if I was Coach Dick Rod in the 4th quarter, I would have reduced the playbook to up for grabs fly patterns. At least then they had a shot at getting some more cheap PI calls. In short, they sucked ass, which was great, and predictable.

One quick rant before I get started. We have been subjected, yet again, to Manning family overload. There are countless commercials, and Archie made the obligatory radio interview tour this week, stumping for some product or charity or whatever. In all the interviews, the host panders to Archie about his two awkward sons, Archie does the "aw shucks" routine, and everyone gets all warm and sticky inside. Is this not the same family who steadfastly refused to go to San Diego, asserting that the Chargers were so inept that they were not worthy of Eli's greatness? Has there ever been a bigger misreading of a team's potential? The Chargers, the team that was so bad Eli practically cried when they took him, MADE THE PLAYOFFS THAT SAME YEAR! They have been a dominant team ever since. Why do these goobers not constantly take shit for such a selfish and at the same time boneheaded position? Not only do they not take shit, the media falls all over themselves in competition with each other in their quest to be the first to to slob on Archie Manning's knob at the beginning of every year. It really pisses me off. Can somebody, just once, remind people what a pack of assholes those people were when the Chargers had the audacity to draft their precious Eli. Good Lord.

I didn't like the Thursday night game enough to list it as a musing, but I did take the points with Vandy based on SCs apparent penchant for turning the ball over. A quick trip to ESPN.com reveals a good start to the week. Nice. Also, the NFL started tonight. The Giants beat the Redskins 16-7 on a field of fake grass painted a depressing shade of gray/green. I counted 48 passes thrown less than 2 yards downfield in the game, including two back to back by the Redskins with less than two minutes left in the game down 2 scores on 3rd and 17 and 4th and 12. This kind of thing will happen in about 75% of the games played this year. The NFL sucks. Don't believe the hype.

1. FRIDAY NIGHT: Navy +7 @Ball St. It's true that Ball St will be a very good team this year, and I am definitely a believer in their QB and their other skill people, but I don't like them in this spot. This is actually a carbon copy of last year's game. You have two dynamic offenses facing defenses who have little chance(Navy) to no chance(Ball St)to stop them. The same was true last year, and Ball St, the road team was catching a TD. Since neither team could stop the other, the points made sense, and BSU ended up winning that one outright on a statistical standstill as a result of some lucky turnovers. This year, same deal, except Navy is catching the points. Let me be clear about this. Ball St has absolutely no chance to stop Navy's running game. None. You can chalk up at least 350 yards, probably 400. I can assure you that it is very difficult to cover a TD when you are helpless to stop the other team's runnng game. Not to say that won't be busier than a one armed paper hanger trying to stop Ball St's offense, but I'll take the points and halfway expect an outright Navy victory.

2. @Penn St -15 v Oregon St: After letting me down last week, the Beavs find themselves in a very tough spot this week. I misread Oregon St's lack of a front 7...well let me rephrase that...I knew their front 7 would be a ?, but didn't think it would matter against Stanford. Well, it did, because the Trees ran it consistently on them for 200+ on the ground.If Stanford can gash them, Penn St will absolutely hammer them on the ground, as they return all 5 of their linemen and almost always run it effectively at home. Throw in the fact that OSU struggled to run it on Stanford(28 rushes for 86 yards), and it adds up to an ugly scenario in which Oregon St has to rely on the rock headed Lyle Moevao to carry them against a fast, ball hawking set of LBs and secondary guys. I'd set the over under for picks at 4.5. This one does not set up well for the Beavers. Maybe OSU will sack up and stop the run. Maybe Moevao will morph into a non-scatterbrained mess overnight. Maybe I'll wake up tomorrow and find a hundred dollar bill in Jeffrey's diaper instead of the normal wet dump I usually find after breakfast. Highly unlikely on all 3 counts.

3. USF -13 1/2 @ Central Florida: I've heard some blabbering this week that this is supposed to be some sort of rivalry game. Ok fine, I guess they play in the same state, but rivalry games don't usually end up with scores of 64-12 which was the case in USF's favor last year. They only outgained UCF by 400 yards though, and this year the game's in Orlando, so that should make all the difference, right? No. Last year, O'leary guided UCF to a bowl game on the back of RB Kevin Smith, who is now gone. He accounted for what seemed to be about 95% of their offense. This year, they have to replace him plus 3 of their O linemen. Their offense looked pretty questionable coming in, and they cemented the concerns with a flimsy effort in their opener against South Carolina St, totaling 318 pedestrian yards. They couldn't really throw it, they ran it for 3.5 ypc...not impressive. My guess is that they have a very strong chance to get shut out by a USF defense that returns just about everyone from a team that held UCF(with Kevin Smith) to 150 total yards last year. Meanwhile, Matt Groethe and all his pals return on USF's offense, and they piled up 580 yards on their opening patsy last week. This one looks like a mismatch.

4. Georgia Tech +7 @ Boston College: There is a lot of risk in this pick, since we really don't know what to expect from either squad. Tech looked good in it's opener against whatever patsy it played, but BC looked very underwhelming against Kent in it's warmup, at least on the offensive end. If BC has proven anything over the last several years, it's that they can stop the run. However, if Paul Johnson has proven anything, it's that he doesn't give a rat's ass who you are, he is going to run on you, and in most cases, he is going to do it with inferior talent to yours. Now he has the likes of Jonathan Dwyer running the ball, who is anything but inferior. I surmise that Ga Tech will be able to run it, since that option is a different animal. My concern with BC is that they will not score enough to cover this number, since they are missing a lot from last years squad, including the RBs and Matt Ryan under center. The new QB did nothing last eek against Kent, so if GT can play some solid run defense(which they generally do) BC will struggle to score. I give GT a 50/50 shot to win it outright, so I'll gladly take the TD helper.

5. @Georgia -23 1/2 v Central Michigan: Let me start by saying that I like Central Michigan's squad this year. Danny LeFevour is a very nice QB and they have a ton of guys back from a very potent attack from last year. Unfortunately, it ain't happening for them this week. CMU, despite being good lately, has spent a significant amount of time in their road BCS conference tilts getting wrecked in the early parts of the season. To wit over the past 5 years: Clemson 70-14, Purdue 45-22, Kansas 52-7, Michigan 41-17, Indiana 41-10. Of all those teams, Georgia is probably the best of them all, and the Dawgs are coming off a week in which they didn't blow out their patsy opponent badly enough to hold on to the #1 ranking. My guess is that they won't be too happy about that and will be looking to make a bloody, messy, bonebreaking statement at the expense of CMU. In the BCS scheme of things, the #1 or #2 ranking is important, so don't expect them to miss out on a chance to pummel someone. Bad timing for the Chips, and they've shown a tendency to be helpless i spots like this.

6. UConn -6 1/2 @Temple: Everyone is slobbering all over themselves about the turnaround story of Temple. Yes, they and Buffalo both appear to be viable competitive teams this year after many years of complete douchebaggery on the football field, and yes, it's true that Temple came within a whisker of knocking off UConn in Storrs last year, but I am not sold. The game last year was a different story, as UConn was in a classic sandwich spot with a roadie at Pitt on deck, and they clearly didn't show up for that one. This year, they go on the road remembering the embarrassment they endured when they luckily skated out of that game with a win as a direct result of a brutal replay decision. Temple, on the other hand is coming off a an easy 35-7 opening win over Army, but that is a deceiving score. Army actually outgained Temple in the game 285-250, and Temple only ran it for 2.9 ypc. We're talking about Army here boys. UConn, though not a bunch of He-Men themselves, are certainly leaps and bounds better on both sides of the ball than Army, and Temple is unlikely to get help from defensive and kick return scores 2 weeks in a row. UCONN has most of their talent back that tied for the Big East title last year. This is the kind of game that would have fooled me in the past. No more I tell you!!

7. @Kansas -20 1/2 v Louisiana Tech: If this game was in week one, the spread would probably be somewhere in the 28-30 range. However, since La Tech accepted Sly Croom's gift wrapped victory last week, they have an added modicum of respect, one that is certainly not warranted. News Flash: Mississippi St is not any good. They weren't last year when everyone was congratulating Sly Croom for being merely below average instead of pathetic, and they certainly won't be this year when they don't get the myriad of breaks they got last year which propelled them to a bowl. Now La Tech goes to Kansas without the benefit of a 3 TD spread, which is certainly necessary for them to have any prayer of covering. KU failed me last week when they somehow failed to score in the entire 4th quarter against FIU. I don't think they'll fail me twice. La Tech has very little on offense, and KU will put up 40 with even an average effort. 44-7 looks about right.

8. @MTSU +13 v Maryland: Maryland is truly a sorry outfit this year. The strength of the team last year was a workmanlike running game with a couple of tough runners in Lance Ball and Keon Lattimore,but both RBs are now gone. They opened with Delaware at home, and won 14-7. My old pal Jordan Steffy started for Maryland, but I now read that he tore a thumb ligament, so Chris Turner, who was somewhat competent last year, will start. That's a bummer. Steffy is as bad as his name would suggest, but I still like the Blue Raiders at home. First, there is some precedent, since MTSU hung tough with Virginia at home last year (23-21) and second, these two teams played in College Park 2 years ago with MTSU outgaining them, first downing them and time of possessioning them in that contest. That Maryland team was much better than this one. MTSU dropped their opener with Troy, but reports are that they had 4 possessions within Troy's 15 and came away with only 3 points. I think this one will be close...Maryland doesn't appear to have the chops to blow out anyone on the road.

9. Kent +7 @Iowa St: These teams played in Ames last year and Kent won the game 23-14 outgaining them 363-306 in the process. In that game, Eugene Jarvis, who is the nation's leading returning rusher, ran for 113 yards on 25 carries and QB Julian Eddleman was effective running and throwing the ball. Both return this year, while almost all playmakers from ISU's sorry squad last year are gone. This year, Iowa St opened with South Dakota St and predictably handled them 44-17, but they gave up 7.0 ypc in the process. Kent, meanwhile played BC and got shut out. Jarvis actually ran it on them for 55 yards on only 11 carries..they evidently fell behind and abandoned the running game. The teams look pretty similar to the outfits that teed it up last year, which Kent won rather easily. Now they play again, with pretty much the same cast of characters, and Kent is getting 7? I would never trust Iowa St to cover that number. I think the chances are good that if Jarvis and co hold on to the ball, they will be effective running it. I'll certainly take the 7.

10. @Oklahoma -21 v Cincinnati: This one I am listing grudgingly, because I really like Cincy, but I just think that any spread at 3 TDs or less for Oklahoma in Norman has to be jumped on, and I apologize if the line moves over 21. I'd still probably play it, though. Cincy has a good squad, and Dustin Grutza looked very good under center last week, but Oklahoma is absolutely stacked. Cincy will have to blitz like crazy to get any pressure at all on Bradford, and if they do, he will just pick them apart. On O, Cincy has a tendency to get shut down against elite defenses, and that is exactly what we have here with OU. I think Cincy is a good team, but they have simply not seen the likes of the Sooners and this array of offensive talent.

others: I like MSU's effort against Cal last week, another indication of Dantonio's ability as a coach. They should be able tohandle 21 against EMU, although the Eagles look improved on offense.....I have a feeling Ohio U hangs with Ohio St(-34) and the Buckeyes suffer a bit of a hangover feeling sorry for themselves in Chris Wells' absence.....Texas A&M (-2) travels to New Mexico to play the Lobos, who laid an egg against a very stingy TCU D. They aren't as bad as they looked last week, and I doubt they'llplay as badly two weeks in a row at home. Mike Sherman needs to show something this week, I don't think he gets it done......Pitt(-13.5) is no doubt a better team than Buffalo, but bad things go'n happen to Wanny. Buffalo showed some good things against a good UTEP offense in week one, so they might be able to hang with Pitt. Even if Pitt outgains Buffalo by 300 yards, they'll still probably be in danger of losing outright, knowing Wanny.....Nevada is catching 10 at home to Texas Tech. Both teams are very strong(obviously) on offense, and I suspect Tech is much better than the Pack on defense, but TT plays like dogshit almost every year in these quasi-tough road games. I love their team this year, but something tells me they struggle in this one like they have in the past with the likes of TCU, UTEP, New Mexico, etc.....I can't resist taking the 23 with San Diego St in South Bend despite the lack of any evidence that they can compete with a single D-1 team, (or D-1AA for that matter). ND will have to show me. For the timebeing, I consider 20+ a gift in any game with these guys until they can show that they have a clue on offense. Good Luck to all....let's get the Cubs out of this mini funk.


Sorry, but I forgot about another game. Was hemming and hawing, but I'm going to add it.

11. @East Carolina +7 1/2 v West Virginia: ECU provided a nice hit for us last week, so I was very hesitant to go back to the well...sometimes you need to step back and be objective when you feel favoritism creeping into your picks, or overwhelming negativity. That's why Miami(OH) +14 1/2 doesn't appear on the card although I really lean that way. In this game, ECU is coming off a great win over VT, in a game they actually dominated more than the final score would suggest. The yardage edge was 369-247 for ECU, and ECU made some annoying mistakes early in the game that kept it from being a total laugher. So now, off that momentum, ECU welcomes West Virginia, who absolutely laid the wood to them last year in Morgantown to the tune of a 600-160(!!!) yardage advantage. Usually, I take those kind of things into account, but in this case, it can be overlooked due to the profound change in leadership at WV. Coming into the season, I felt that WV might have some issues with new Village Idiot Bill Stewart at the controls, or at least with him hugging people on the sidelines if not completely at the controls. This might be especially true on the defensive side of the ball. Say what you will about Dick Rod, the coaching dropoff between these two is immense. You'll notice that WV, despite a comfortable victory over Villanova, was outgained by the Wildcats 399-354. The 354 yards by WV was the third fewest since Pat White came on the scene in 2005. They also gave up 28 first downs to Nova on the day, an indication of a consistent ability to move the ball. ECU showed extreme precision in their first game, with QB Pinckney completing his first 11 throws and 19-23 for the game. They also showed an ability to run it effectively on VT, something they should be able to do as well on WV. I think we are talking about a severe coaching edge on ECU's part, along with an offense that might not have the sharpness that it did in the Dick Rod years. Throw in the fact that this might be a slop-fest due to Tropical Storm what's her nuts, and you might have a real chance for ECU to pull off another upset. By the way, some books have this at 8, but mine are at 7 1/2, so that's how I'm listing this one.

That's it...Good Luck