Another nice week last week. 8-4 for the numbered musings, certainly nothing to scoff at, and I caught a ton of breaks en route to an extremely profitable Saturday. I'd say the likelihood of a cooling off period is pretty substantial, since the last 4 weeks have garnered a 33-16 mark(better than 67%). I'm sure I don't need to elaborate on a percentage like that. Let's just say it's unlikely to continue. I like this week's card, though, so who knows?
The World Series is now over, and not a moment too soon. Philadelphia has commenced defacing property under the guise of "celebrating" a rare departure from their usual din of futility. The World Series also reminded me why Bug(not a typo) Selig will pretty much retire as champion of my list of People I Would Love to Punch in the Face. K Fed used to dominate this list, but he's been so quiet lately that he's actually fallen off the list completely. Actually, that might be a testament to how utterly screwed up Britney Spears is. She has actually made K Fed look like a responsible adult compared to the dumpster fire that is Britney's existence(or has been). Bug reminded us all of his complete faggotry this week during his mismanagement of the game 5 fiasco. He lied about having consulted weather people and the Phillies head groundskeeper before the game was started. He was so arrogant that he never even thought it important enough to make anyone aware of his intentions as it pertained to the outcome of the game vis a vis the weather, if he even thought far enough ahead to plan for it. None of the players knew what the overall plans were, neither did the managers. He wanted to get the game in so the Fox jagoffs wouldn't get bent out of shape, and he almost blew it in the process. Anyway, if anyone is curious, here is my current list of People I would Love to Punch in the Face: Please feel free to add your own.
1. Bug Selig. (And I would hope that he dies.)
2. Keith Olbermann (A World Class, grade A egomanaical dickhead, even during his ESPN days.)
3. Nancy Pelosi** (For thousands of reasons, but most recently for her devoid of fact, morally and logically bankrupt speech just prior to the bailout vote)
4. Rosie O'Donnell
5. Skip Bayless/Tommy Tuberville(tie)
**I would actually never punch a woman, so Pelosi's inclusion on this list is only figurative.
Again, feel free to add some names to this list, or to come up with your own. It's fun!
On to this week.......
1. @Texas A&M -3 1/2 v Colorado: Over the past 3 weeks or so, A&M has made some very promising strides. Not necessarily on defense, but on offense. QB Jarrod Johnson completed 31-38 for almost 400 yards last week in their road victory over Iowa St. It seems as though the team is picking up on Mike Sherman's offensive scheme. On the flip side, Colorado has established itself as one of worst offensive squads in a BCS conference, officially qualifying as a completely putrid offense. Dan Hawkins has had to treat his son Cody like any other quarterback who sucks, and it's led to all sorts of offensive ineptitude. I understand that Missouri was not in a very accommodating mood last week, but the Buffs failed to crack 200 total yards against a defense that was completely taken apart in successive weeks just prior. Their defense isn't close to good enough to overcome the offense's shortcomings, especially in the Big 12, which is as good offensively throughout the league as any BCS conference I can ever remember. A&M should be able to handle the Buffs easily at home.
2. Arkansas St +23 1/2 @Alabama: I'm pretty predictable aren't I? Here's Alabama again as a significant home favorite against a lower tier conference team. They are coming off yet another impressive win on the road, be it against Phil Fulmer's perpetual horror show, and are looking at a trip to Baton Rouge next week in what probably looms as their last chance to lose given Tuberville's problems at Auburn. I can't imagine that Arky St will get anywhere near Bama's best shot, just like Louisiana Monroe didn't as a 24 point dog at just about this time last year(a 21-14 Lou-Mon victory in Bryant Denny stadium.) I'm not saying that Arky St is going to go in there and win, but I'm here to tell you that they are a helluva lot better than La-Mon was. For the year they are outgaining their opponents by 100 yards per game, and are even doing so on the road for the year. They can run and pass, and have hung with some very good teams in the past, so they won't be out of their gourds here.
3. Iowa St +31 @Oklahoma St: here we find another spot in which the large favorite almost certainly will not be rolling their A game out on the field ths week. The Cowboys of course are coming off a great performance in Austin in which they almost knocked off Texas, and they are staring at a trip to Lubbock next week. Meanwhile, Iowa St comes in having lost 6 games in a row, including a blowout loss to Baylor in their last road trip. Despite appearances, Iowa St actually has the ability to move the ball, as they racked up almost 600 yards of offense last week against A&M. Granted, it was against a pretty questionable defense in A&M, but it's about 200 more than Okie St rang up in their home game with the Aggies earlier this year, so take it for what it's worth. Okie St's defense has definitely played well this year when motivated, but still shows signs of giving up points, much like they have for 95% of their past history. I agree that the 'Boys should be significant favorites in this game, but OSU was only a 17 point favorite against Baylor 2 weeks ago. I don't know if ISU is 2 TDs worse than that only 2 weeks later.
4. @Colorado St +14 1/2 v BYU: Everyone in the free world(let me rephrase that...everyone in the country) is on BYU in this game, and I'm having a hard time figuring out why. BYU has pretty much been exposed this year as somewhat of a fraud....that is, when being propped up as a BCS contender. So far in their road games, BYU is 0-3 ATS, having barely squeaked by a Washington team that is getting 47 points this week, getting played to pretty much a standstill for 3 quarters by Utah St and being chased off the field by TCU. Now they travel to Fort Collins to face a Colorado St team that is 3-0 ATS at home this year, including a game that they easily could have knocked off TCU. Colorado St has good balance on offense. They struggle on defense, but not so much that it has kept them from being competitive in any game this year. Besides, BYU has already played the nation's worst defense(Washington) and only put up 28 on them. The BYU team that scorched UCLA 59-0 could be favored by mre than 2 scores on this game, but not the BYU team that has been here the rest of the year.
5. @Boston College -3 1/2 v Clemson: This is a spread I just can't figure out. Clemson, over the past several weeks, has proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that they are severely lacking offensively, and in more ways than one. Their once productive run game has turned into a puny operation, and their passing game has led to more turnovers than anything else. With some of the best offensive talent in the ACC, they are ranked 80th offensively, while BC is ranked 7th nationally on defense. Clemson has played only one road game, a game in which they were completely slapped around by Wake. Now, with their confidence shot, both Qbs banged up and a borderline wack job filling in as interim coach, they go all the way up to Boston to play in the cold against a team that has had it's way with just about everyone defensively(although the wheels fell off for them last week at UNC). If I'm backing Clemson here, I probably would require double digits, and I certainly would want more than a field goal.
6. Eastern Michigan +18 @Western Michigan: I hate to use a bad cliche', but when these directional Michigan schools get together, you can throw out the records!!!! This is especially true in the previous cases between these two. Two years ago, Western hosted Eastern as a 17 point favorite, Eastern was playing without their QB and had a bunch of guys suspended, and the game came down to a FG as time expired. Last year, Western traveled to Eastern as a 6 point favorite and got dominated 19-2, outgained in the process 385-190. This year, again, Western is favored, and they are still alive to win th conference, while EMU is sitting at 2-7, hence the wide spread. However, Eastern has some weapons on offense, and obviously understands how to handle Tim Hiller, since they completely shut down WMU's offense last year. For the year, EMU has actually outgained their opponents and could have easily won 2 or even three more games with a couple breaks. QB Andy Schmitt is healthy now, having thrown for 300+ on a good Ball St defense last week. In this rivalry game, it seems to me that 18 is too much. The MAC is so crazy that 18 point dogs winning outright on the road aren't all that surprising. A blowout here frankly would be more so.
7. Texas -3 @Texas Tech: First of all, let me say that I am the happy owner of a 2 1/2-7 point middle opportunity in this game, so I hope the game is close. For whatever reason, this spread has taken a major tumble since it came out at 7 points on Sunday. Now it sits at 3. Despite the bad call on Tech last week, I remain somewhat unconvinced about the Red Raiders. Obviously, if they take care of business and upset the Longhorms this week, that will change, but I lean pretty heavily to Texas in this spot. Just about every pundit in the world is lamenting the fact that Texas has played 3 meat grinder games in a row, with OU, Mizzou and Oklahoma St all in a row. They can't possibly play 4 consecutive great games in a row can they? Well, first of all, I don't think they played all that great against Okie St, at least compared to the Mizzou masterpiece, but I do think they can turn in a good performance in this one. Texas Tech has not played a defense in Texas's league yet, and I think this might be the week that a lack of a legitimate receiving threat outside of Crabtree might catch up with them. Will Muschamp has proven himself as a great tactician defensively, so I do not subscribe to the theory that TT will score almost every time they get the ball. The Raiders have had games in which they didn't click offensively this year, it just hasn't caught up with them yet. I think you can make a case that McCoy and the Longhorn offense has been just as efficient as Tech has, so I think Tech's defense has a tougher matchup than Texas's defense does. Also, Leach is likely to find himself saddled by more than a couple open possessions because he doesn't have a reliable kicker. If he's not making his 4th down conversions, and he will certainly be going for it pretty regularly on 4th down, field position will be a factor, and I just don't see his team being able to overcome the disadvantages of having no margin of error as far as scoring a TD almost every possession. Tech also has not performed well in these showdown type games in the past. I like Texas here.
8. Georgia +7 v Florida: Yeah. We get it. Urban Meyer is pissed off about the ghetto thunder celebration in the end zone in last year's cocktail party. They've also looked unbeatable lately since their bye week, clobbering LSU and Kentucky. However, this game is not in the swamp, and Georgia showed last year that they are by no means intimidated by Tebow or the Gators. I can't tell you how impressed I was with Georgia last week, especially Matt Stafford. I was not sold on him as a QB prior to that, but he looked fantastic in beating blitzes and getting the ball where it needed to be under duress. I pretty much agree with people who say that Florida might be the best team in the country right now, and I think they'll probably win the game, but if you can buy the spread up to 7, I recommend doing it, because Georgia will be no pushover this week in my opinion. Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE is calling for a Florida DD victory this week. I do not see it. Georgia has playmakers on offense that Florida will be struggling to stop as well. The Dawgs have hot their stride in my opinion, so I would think it would take a superhuman effort from Florida to blow them out.
9. @South Carolina -5 1/2 v Tennessee: Tennessee is a complete joke at this point, especially offensively, and it's a shame, because there is definitely offensive talent there. However, to say that they are getting outcoached is akin to saying "The sun comes up in the East". They are an abomination on the sidelines, and Fullmer is likely to feel what it's like to have an axe come crashing down on his skull if he doesn't turn in an inspired performance this week. Unfortunately for them, they are facing the Ball Coach, who more often than not has failed to keep his disdain for Fat Phil and the Vols to himself. South Carolina's defense is statistically the best in the SEC, so I don't see more than about 10 points for them. Tennessee's defense has been something of a bright spot for UT, but when your offense continues to do nothing, defenses, even the good ones, tend to wave the white flag and have the roof cave in on them, and I see that happening this week. Under new QB Steven Garcia, SC has some continuity. I think things continue to snowball on UT this week.
10. @Mississippi St -2 1/2 v Kentucky: At this point, I think the respect for Kentucky is unwarranted. Obviously, last week was a tough one for them as they had to go to Florida with less than a full squad so they got drilled. They've shown some life on defense this year, but their offense remains a joke, especially now that their top 2 skill guys are out for the year. Mississippi St is no great shakes, but they have a competent offense now since Tyson Lee was inserted at QB, and they have a good defense when they play at home. Asking them to win a game is sometimes more than they can muster, but in this case, especially since Kentucky is so banged up and wasn't exactly the 27 Yankees before the injuries, I think they can git er done this week.
11. Iowa +2 1/2 @Illinois: I see an outright win for Iowa here. They are coming off a bye, while Illinois is coming off a cowardly performance in Madison against a Wisconsin team they should have rolled. Illinois needs this game badly, but so does Iowa. Illinois will have a very hard time stopping Shonn Greene, and they have struggled to stop everyone's passing game. On the flip side, Iowa proved last year that they know how to bottle up the Illini spread, holding them to 6 points in Iowa City last year, and have been very good on defense all year this year. Unfortunately, I also see a coaching advantage on the Iowa side. Until Illinois stands up and proves they can take care of business when they have everyone's attention, I am not sold. Throw in the fact that I really really really want to see them win this week, and I'm calling for some disappointment.
Others: A lot of these were very close to being musings...I just can't separate them all, so I'll list them here. UNLV is getting 14 at home against TCU. TCU is coming off two of the best performances you will ever see, a complete demolition of BYU 2 Thusdays ago and a predictable wipeout of Wyoming last week. Now they travel to UNLV with a trip to Utah on deck. Definite letdown spot, and UNLV has a lot of playmakers on offense. If TCU gets lazy or sputters on offense, which they are capable of doing sometimes, UNLV will give them all they can handle......Army is getting 9 at home against Air Force. Don't look now but the Cadets find themselves in position to perhaps contend for the Commander in Chief trophy for the first time in a long time due to their inspired play lately. Air Force is still better than them, but the Cadets have shown some mettle and definitely will give AF their best shot......Wake is a home favorite against Duke. You know the drill.....Washington St remains a automatic go-against for me, even if that means laying 30 points (30 POINTS!!!!!) with Stanford.....Ole MIss is in that unpleasant role of being a favorite again, this time a full TD at home against Auburn. For some reason, I see Auburn bringing a better effort this week, so I'll take the 7....BG is a favorite again, this time at home against Kent(+6). Kent is actually playing better than BG is right now especially with their running game, so I'll be taking the points....Louisville is laying 12 1/2 at Syracuse. We all know Syracuse stinks, but they sometimes can run it a little bit. Unfortunately for them. Louisville is good against the run, and they are on a bit of a roll, so they still give a crap about their season. That will probably lead to a cover for the Cards.....Virginia went from catching 2 at home with Miami to laying 2. If they were a dog again, this would be a musing, but as a favorite it changes things. I do still think that Virginia takes care of business at home though. Lots of people think the 'Hoos recent success is a fluke, but I don't....Is Washington really getting 47 points this week? As Mike pointed out, Pete Carroll can play his 5th stringers if he wants since he can suit up the whole campus at home, unlike on the road. My guess is he'll keep it down out of the mandatory respect he must have for the always respectable Ty Willingham.....That's it for this week.....hope everyone does well!!!
Friday, October 31, 2008
Friday, October 24, 2008
Week 9 MUsings
Last week was pretty good, 7-4 overall. I went with almost exclusively dogs. I'm more comfortable with dogs generally, and there is no doubt that games are much more fun to watch when you're on the dog. If I someday get famous, and someone does a profile on me and asks for a pet peeve, my response will certainly be "Conjuring up ways the chump favorite I'm on can cover a 14 1/2 point spread when they're trailing by 3 with 7 minutes left in the game." We might have had a shot at a better week if Memphis didn't lose the starting QB, backup QB and top receiver all in the first 8 minutes of the game. They actually led 10-0 early and 10-7 into the 3rd quarter, but 5 straight 3 and outs in the second half without their guys led to the defense getting worn down. Oh well, it happens. I've yet to see a team I bet against have that happen to them, but I'm sure it happens. It does, doesn't it?
In other news, the BCS standings came out, which has triggered the most uninteresting topic on the face of the Earth to be shoved down our throats again, namely, the BCS, and the lack of a playoff system. One thing I really hope happens this year is a departure from the assumption that if a team is ranked in one position in one week, that they are predestined to stay there unless they lose. In the final week of the BCS voting, pollsters vote teams 1-2 based on who they think should be playing in the MNC game. So I don't want to hear some boneheaded coach complain that team A shouldn't leapfrog them in the final week. Like when Michigan was ranked ahead of Florida in early December in '06, then got leapfrogged in the final poll because everyone knew that a Michigan/OSU rematch was pointless.Since he was an ignoramus, Lloyd Carr cried about it. Hopefully we won't have any doofus coaches miss that point this year, because I'd hate to have to educate them.
In case anyone missed it, Washington St cemented themselves as the worst BCS conference team by a mile by continuing their shockingly horrific season by losing 69-0 to USC. Even though the score is quite remarkable in it's own right, it does not really do any justice on how one sided this was. There once was a day when teams feared venturing out to the Pallouse, but I can assure you that this is no longer the case. Consider: This was the 4th time WSU has given up 60+. and the third time at home. In this game, they were outgained in the first half 481 -17, and were outgained 625-118 for the game. Mark Sanchez had 5 TDs in the first half. They were out First Downed 28-4. Not only did they not score, they never even passed midfield. That's right, they never MADE IT PAST MIDFIELD. The cleanup job after a village idiot is a large one, for sure, but c'mon...this is pretty ridiculous. Paul Wulff needs to step it up a bit. Granted, USC is rough and so are some of the other teams in the Pac 10, but Baylor was guffawing it up against them by midway through the 3rd quarter. When Baylor is toying around with you....ouch babe.
Also....Dear Tommy Tuberville. Here's how your second half went tonight. You know, that period of time in which you implement adjustments so that your team can win. Receive kickoff-punt. WV kicks FG. Kickoff-punt. WV scores touchdown. Kickoff-punt. WV scores TD. Kickoff punt-WV scores TD. Game over. 31 unanswered points by a team led by a borderline retard. Nice work. You just got completely outcoached by Bill Stewart. You were up by 14 on him, and then he mentally bitch slapped you. BILL STEWART!!! It's over Tommy. Cue up the music. SOOOOOOOOYYYY UN PANTADOR......I'M A LOSER BAAAAAABYYYYYY SO WHY DON'T YOU KILL MEEEEEE????
On to the week:
1. Oklahoma -17 1/2 @Kansas St: Don't be fooled by Kansas St's passable defensive performance against Colorado. The 'Cats actually had a decent defensive game in Boulder for them, holding Colorado to 14 points and 353 yards. This indicates more about Colorado's offensive futility(which I frankly am having a hard time figuring out) than it does about any defensive prowess on the part of K St. Let me be clear: They cannot stop a soul on defense, and that will be exposed in bright neon for all to see this week. Oklahoma is kind of in a difficult spot as it relates to their MNC chances, i.e., they're completely screwed. Texas has to lose twice for them to have a chance at the B12 title game, and now that the 'Horns took care of Missouri last week, that appears less than likely. In the meantime, Oklahoma will have to keep itself busy by blasting people for the rest of the year. K St will offer no challenge to Sam Bradford and what is probably the most complete offense in America. The Sooners will be able to score at will...don't expect to see their punter unless they are looking for reasons for him to work on his game. We might see 60+ from the Sooners this week.
2. @Florida St -5 v Virginia Tech: As we all know, Virginia Tech's offense is not good, be it with Sean Glennon or Tyrod Taylor. Last week, they remained in the game at BC because they got 2 INT returns for scores. This week, they're on the road again in Tallahassee, and they have to face probably the best defense they have seen all year. While VT has been outgained by it's opponents by 27 ypg this year, FSU is doing the opposite, outgaining it's opponents by 167. Christian Ponder actually looked pretty good last week against NC St, and the FSU running game has been effective. I really think that VT's only chance to keep this close is if they have a repeat of last week, and Ponder does his best Kirby Freeman/Marcus Stone/Jordan Steffy/Jarrod Bryant impression.. It's possible, but not likely.
3. Virginia +14 @Georgia Tech: I don't thin I've ever seen a team turn things around as much as this Virginia team has. They went from being complete cannon fodder in the non-conference to being a legit bowl contender, and they're on a roll. They've beaten 3 solid squads in a row after their nice comeback victory over UNC last week, and now face Ga Tech on the road. It's true that their success has come at home the past 3 weeks, but there are other reasons for their success, namely, their defense getting healthy, and an effective change at QB. They've also found their running game, so I think the improvement is real. Ga Tech is certainly a solid squad as well, and normally a favorite of the musings, but not as a significant DD favorite, even at home. If you watched their game with Clemson last week, you'll notice that they struggled mightily on offense, punting 9 times and only recording 12 first downs. They did what they had to to win, which is probably what they'll do this week as well. Even at Navy, Paul Johnson was not good as a large favorite. To be honest, this looks to me to be another game in which the likelihood of the dog winning might be better than that of the favorite covering, unless there's a late pick 6 or something.
4. @Kansas -1 v Texas Tech: Every year, Texas Tech has a "what in the hell was that" type game, in which their offense never gets on track and they lay an egg defensively. They walk into Lawrence facing a KU team with a lot to play for, and a lot to be jacked up about. TT remains undefeated, but there has been something lacking about them that I can't quite put my finger on. They've looked disappointing in victory two weeks in a row, and now they have a home game with Texas on deck. If they don't bring their A game, they'll lose, and it might be a thrashing. KU can move the ball on anyone. They've struggled on defense, which is never good when the Red Raiders come to town, but I really think this is the week that Tech takes their loss.
5 UCLA +17 1/2 @California: People need to realize that UCLA is and will be one of the best coached teams in the country as long as the Neuheisel/Chow combo is there. They continue to catch big points, especially on the road, due to the disaster they experienced in Provo in week 2 or 3 or whatever it was. They were catching 20+ at Oregon and came close to an outright victory. The were catching points at home against a solid Stanford team and beat them. Now they are getting 3 scores against a Cal team, that although explosive, has not really exploded on anyone lately. I won't argue that Cal is potentially a much better team than UCLA at this juncture, but the Bruins are rolling pretty good, and really shouldn't be the recipient of this many points.
6. Nc State +12 @Maryland: As I mentioned last week, NC State is a betable team as long as Russell Wilson is healthy. He is, so we can proceed to capping their game. Last week, Maryland played what many would consider a perfect game against Wake. It's true..they dominated a good Wake Forest team in every phase, piling up a ton of yards in the process. As we know, however, this Maryland team is a Jeckyl and Hyde squad. Not so much at home so far this year, but give them time. Even though they played almost perfectly, they still only punched in 2 touchdowns, settling for field goals 4 times. That's not a formula for covering a double digit spread. NC State isn't great, but they have enough playmakers to keep the game close, and Maryland lost their best cornerback in their game last week.
7. SMU +12 1/2 @Navy: I case anyone hasn't been noticing, SMU has been coming on in recent weeks, which was somewhat predictable given June Jones's previous history. They have lost 6 in a row, but have played very good competition, including two explosive offenses in Tulsa and Houston the past two weeks, and were a whisker away from winning both games. Offensively, they are playing well, despite Bo Levi Mitchell's addiction to throwing the ball to the other team. Navy on the other hand, has led a charmed life this year, benefiting from tons of defensive ans ST TDs, and when they've lost, they've proven to be inferior to the competition. This is especially true when Navy's worst option QB in the history of the Academy, Jarrod Bryant, is under center. He appears to be the man again this week, as Kaipo is still having issues with his hamstring. You'll recall last year that Navy had a similar game with North Texas, and it went down to the wire. SMU will certainly put up points in this game. If Bryant turns the ball over, SMU might have a shot at the outright win.
8. Alabama -5 @Tennessee: Obviously, the Tide has not screwed around when it comes to their big games this year. It's debateable whether or not a game with Tennessee is actually a big game anymore, since they've slipped farther and farther back in the national scene as Phil Fullmer continues to be employed. However, Bama fans still have this game circled on their calendar due to the bad blood that exists between the two schools. Bama feels they were railroaded by Fullmer and Tennessee in a squeal job to the NCAA that Bama claims no guilt toward. There will be motivation from the Bama side, as well as an obvious distinct coaching advantage. Tennessee has some issues on both lines, and although their star D lineman has been injured, Bama has plenty to plug in. No offense on UT...I think Bama lays the wood here.
9. @LSU -1 v Georgia: I know everyone loves Mark Richt on the road, and Mark surely deserves kudos for winning so many road games over the past several years, but I think he's in a tough spot here. Georgia, as has been documented, is starting almost exclusively fresh and soph offensive linemen. That's probably bad news against this LSU front 7. In addition, Georgia's defense has not been a wrecking ball, having leaked like a sieve against Bama. Lee or Hatch might have a fighting chance in this one. Based on Georgia's line issues, and the perception that there has been something awry pretty much all year for Georgia, I'm going to put some stock in the home team here.
10. MTSU+10 1/2 @ Mississippi St: If I'm a Mississippi St fan, I am deathly afraid that my team loses this game. MTSU has hung with all of the FBS teams they have played thus far, and won against Maryland. Miss St of course, "struggles" on offense, which normally doesn't bode well for DD favorites. MTSU could possibly win this outright.... it certainly wouldn't be a shock. There's enough talent among the Blue Raiders to hang within 10.
11. @Tulsa -23 v Central Florida: (SUNDAY)Big spread here, but Tulsa has been absolutely devastating at home, having beaten Rice by 35, New Mexico by 42 and UTEP by 42 last week. These are not complete pushovers either, as all 3 have had good performances this year, including UTEP's 58-13 demolition of Central Florida the last time they ventured out to the West. Tulsa has the best offense in the country.There can be almost no argument about that. They average more than 100 yds per game more than the likes of Missouri, Oklahoma State, Illinois for example, and average almost a full yard per play more than the #2 offense in the country, Texas Tech. Central Florida, might have the must putrid offense in the country, and upon further investigation, indeed they do, as they rank 120th in total offense. I don't care how good UCF thinks it's defense is, they will get torched, and they'll probably struggle to put up more than about 17. That won't cut it.
12. @Arkansas +6 1/2 v Ole MIss: I am generally very loyal to statistical analysis. Those who dismiss stats as not noteworthy are dullard neanderthals. In this case, though, I think we need to put our situational handicapping hats on. Most of the world is on Ole MIss here, and I understand why, because they have statistically stood up to very tough competition, i.e. Florida and Bama. However, when it comes to taking care of business as a favorite, they haven't done it, losing at home to Vandy and South Carolina. Arkansas is playing a lot better lately and should have beaten Kentucky on the road last week if not for 2 late TDs from the Wildcats. Now, after a very tough game with Bama in which they left disappointed, they have to turn around and go on the road again and are expected to handle an improving team with a good coaching staff. If we see Arkansas morph back into the turnover spewing abomination they were earlier in the year, they're screwed, but if not, they have a great shot. Keep in mind that these are two 3-4 teams, too, as much as we all like Ole Miss.
Others....Fresno is a big favorite against Utah St (-16). Their defense has been very poor this year, and Utah St has shown signs of hanging in at home..actually playing competitively. If Fresno is disinterested, they can absolutely find themselves in a dogfight....Cincinnati has their original 2nd string QB(Tony Pike) back this week, and he had very good success earlier in the year before injury. They are slight favorites(-2) on the road against UConn, who is probably going to be without their QB Frazer, so they are down to several guys who have not taken a snap. Cincy stops the run, so UConn might find themselves in a bit of a pickle.....The Illini should be able to handle Wisconsin...I won't jinx them any further by elaborating......BG looked terrible last week, and now they travel to play NIU in DeKalb, where they have had great success in the past. In another situational situation(!!)I can see them covering the 8....TONIGHT...I am not sold on Boise's offense. They are laying 7 at San Jose St tonight, and SJSU's defense is ranked in the top 12 nationally. Boise's freshman QB and overrated RB Johnson might struggle, much like they did for the most part at home against a weak Hawaii defense last week......It's not a musing due to the large spread, but Florida is a 24 1/2 point favorite at home against Kentucky. Don't expect Urban Meyer to take his foot off the gas since they are in "impress the voters" mode. Kentucky, already hellaciously bad on offense, had a couple more injuries last week, so they are even more hamstrung than usual. Now they're hurt on defense as well, as two more linebackers aren't going to play. I've heard that Rich Brooks is sitting out a couple other guys so they can rest up for later games in an attmpt to punt this game and win later. This could get very ugly very quickly. It's not a musing because of the size of the line in the SEC, and because Florida has Georgia on deck, but it almost was one anyway......Minnesota is a 2 point favorite on the road at Purdue. I am not sold on any favorite that cannot stop a soul in the passing game. They have survived on luck and dirty tricks on D so far. If Purdue shows up with their offense clicking, Minnesota will be giving up yards in boulder sized chunks. If they struggle at all on offense in that scenario, they won't win....I like both Michigan and Penn State this week in the Big Ten because they are playing teams that are too one dimensional. For example, Ohio St's only chance in their game is if they absolutely dominate Penn St on the ground. I don't think that's going to happen. ......If Arizona gets up to +17 or so, I'll also be biting, since they have been very good at home, and USC is due to get full of themselves again. Actually, who am I kidding? I'll be on them at the current 15 as well. .....That's it or this week. Hope everyone does well.........
In other news, the BCS standings came out, which has triggered the most uninteresting topic on the face of the Earth to be shoved down our throats again, namely, the BCS, and the lack of a playoff system. One thing I really hope happens this year is a departure from the assumption that if a team is ranked in one position in one week, that they are predestined to stay there unless they lose. In the final week of the BCS voting, pollsters vote teams 1-2 based on who they think should be playing in the MNC game. So I don't want to hear some boneheaded coach complain that team A shouldn't leapfrog them in the final week. Like when Michigan was ranked ahead of Florida in early December in '06, then got leapfrogged in the final poll because everyone knew that a Michigan/OSU rematch was pointless.Since he was an ignoramus, Lloyd Carr cried about it. Hopefully we won't have any doofus coaches miss that point this year, because I'd hate to have to educate them.
In case anyone missed it, Washington St cemented themselves as the worst BCS conference team by a mile by continuing their shockingly horrific season by losing 69-0 to USC. Even though the score is quite remarkable in it's own right, it does not really do any justice on how one sided this was. There once was a day when teams feared venturing out to the Pallouse, but I can assure you that this is no longer the case. Consider: This was the 4th time WSU has given up 60+. and the third time at home. In this game, they were outgained in the first half 481 -17, and were outgained 625-118 for the game. Mark Sanchez had 5 TDs in the first half. They were out First Downed 28-4. Not only did they not score, they never even passed midfield. That's right, they never MADE IT PAST MIDFIELD. The cleanup job after a village idiot is a large one, for sure, but c'mon...this is pretty ridiculous. Paul Wulff needs to step it up a bit. Granted, USC is rough and so are some of the other teams in the Pac 10, but Baylor was guffawing it up against them by midway through the 3rd quarter. When Baylor is toying around with you....ouch babe.
Also....Dear Tommy Tuberville. Here's how your second half went tonight. You know, that period of time in which you implement adjustments so that your team can win. Receive kickoff-punt. WV kicks FG. Kickoff-punt. WV scores touchdown. Kickoff-punt. WV scores TD. Kickoff punt-WV scores TD. Game over. 31 unanswered points by a team led by a borderline retard. Nice work. You just got completely outcoached by Bill Stewart. You were up by 14 on him, and then he mentally bitch slapped you. BILL STEWART!!! It's over Tommy. Cue up the music. SOOOOOOOOYYYY UN PANTADOR......I'M A LOSER BAAAAAABYYYYYY SO WHY DON'T YOU KILL MEEEEEE????
On to the week:
1. Oklahoma -17 1/2 @Kansas St: Don't be fooled by Kansas St's passable defensive performance against Colorado. The 'Cats actually had a decent defensive game in Boulder for them, holding Colorado to 14 points and 353 yards. This indicates more about Colorado's offensive futility(which I frankly am having a hard time figuring out) than it does about any defensive prowess on the part of K St. Let me be clear: They cannot stop a soul on defense, and that will be exposed in bright neon for all to see this week. Oklahoma is kind of in a difficult spot as it relates to their MNC chances, i.e., they're completely screwed. Texas has to lose twice for them to have a chance at the B12 title game, and now that the 'Horns took care of Missouri last week, that appears less than likely. In the meantime, Oklahoma will have to keep itself busy by blasting people for the rest of the year. K St will offer no challenge to Sam Bradford and what is probably the most complete offense in America. The Sooners will be able to score at will...don't expect to see their punter unless they are looking for reasons for him to work on his game. We might see 60+ from the Sooners this week.
2. @Florida St -5 v Virginia Tech: As we all know, Virginia Tech's offense is not good, be it with Sean Glennon or Tyrod Taylor. Last week, they remained in the game at BC because they got 2 INT returns for scores. This week, they're on the road again in Tallahassee, and they have to face probably the best defense they have seen all year. While VT has been outgained by it's opponents by 27 ypg this year, FSU is doing the opposite, outgaining it's opponents by 167. Christian Ponder actually looked pretty good last week against NC St, and the FSU running game has been effective. I really think that VT's only chance to keep this close is if they have a repeat of last week, and Ponder does his best Kirby Freeman/Marcus Stone/Jordan Steffy/Jarrod Bryant impression.. It's possible, but not likely.
3. Virginia +14 @Georgia Tech: I don't thin I've ever seen a team turn things around as much as this Virginia team has. They went from being complete cannon fodder in the non-conference to being a legit bowl contender, and they're on a roll. They've beaten 3 solid squads in a row after their nice comeback victory over UNC last week, and now face Ga Tech on the road. It's true that their success has come at home the past 3 weeks, but there are other reasons for their success, namely, their defense getting healthy, and an effective change at QB. They've also found their running game, so I think the improvement is real. Ga Tech is certainly a solid squad as well, and normally a favorite of the musings, but not as a significant DD favorite, even at home. If you watched their game with Clemson last week, you'll notice that they struggled mightily on offense, punting 9 times and only recording 12 first downs. They did what they had to to win, which is probably what they'll do this week as well. Even at Navy, Paul Johnson was not good as a large favorite. To be honest, this looks to me to be another game in which the likelihood of the dog winning might be better than that of the favorite covering, unless there's a late pick 6 or something.
4. @Kansas -1 v Texas Tech: Every year, Texas Tech has a "what in the hell was that" type game, in which their offense never gets on track and they lay an egg defensively. They walk into Lawrence facing a KU team with a lot to play for, and a lot to be jacked up about. TT remains undefeated, but there has been something lacking about them that I can't quite put my finger on. They've looked disappointing in victory two weeks in a row, and now they have a home game with Texas on deck. If they don't bring their A game, they'll lose, and it might be a thrashing. KU can move the ball on anyone. They've struggled on defense, which is never good when the Red Raiders come to town, but I really think this is the week that Tech takes their loss.
5 UCLA +17 1/2 @California: People need to realize that UCLA is and will be one of the best coached teams in the country as long as the Neuheisel/Chow combo is there. They continue to catch big points, especially on the road, due to the disaster they experienced in Provo in week 2 or 3 or whatever it was. They were catching 20+ at Oregon and came close to an outright victory. The were catching points at home against a solid Stanford team and beat them. Now they are getting 3 scores against a Cal team, that although explosive, has not really exploded on anyone lately. I won't argue that Cal is potentially a much better team than UCLA at this juncture, but the Bruins are rolling pretty good, and really shouldn't be the recipient of this many points.
6. Nc State +12 @Maryland: As I mentioned last week, NC State is a betable team as long as Russell Wilson is healthy. He is, so we can proceed to capping their game. Last week, Maryland played what many would consider a perfect game against Wake. It's true..they dominated a good Wake Forest team in every phase, piling up a ton of yards in the process. As we know, however, this Maryland team is a Jeckyl and Hyde squad. Not so much at home so far this year, but give them time. Even though they played almost perfectly, they still only punched in 2 touchdowns, settling for field goals 4 times. That's not a formula for covering a double digit spread. NC State isn't great, but they have enough playmakers to keep the game close, and Maryland lost their best cornerback in their game last week.
7. SMU +12 1/2 @Navy: I case anyone hasn't been noticing, SMU has been coming on in recent weeks, which was somewhat predictable given June Jones's previous history. They have lost 6 in a row, but have played very good competition, including two explosive offenses in Tulsa and Houston the past two weeks, and were a whisker away from winning both games. Offensively, they are playing well, despite Bo Levi Mitchell's addiction to throwing the ball to the other team. Navy on the other hand, has led a charmed life this year, benefiting from tons of defensive ans ST TDs, and when they've lost, they've proven to be inferior to the competition. This is especially true when Navy's worst option QB in the history of the Academy, Jarrod Bryant, is under center. He appears to be the man again this week, as Kaipo is still having issues with his hamstring. You'll recall last year that Navy had a similar game with North Texas, and it went down to the wire. SMU will certainly put up points in this game. If Bryant turns the ball over, SMU might have a shot at the outright win.
8. Alabama -5 @Tennessee: Obviously, the Tide has not screwed around when it comes to their big games this year. It's debateable whether or not a game with Tennessee is actually a big game anymore, since they've slipped farther and farther back in the national scene as Phil Fullmer continues to be employed. However, Bama fans still have this game circled on their calendar due to the bad blood that exists between the two schools. Bama feels they were railroaded by Fullmer and Tennessee in a squeal job to the NCAA that Bama claims no guilt toward. There will be motivation from the Bama side, as well as an obvious distinct coaching advantage. Tennessee has some issues on both lines, and although their star D lineman has been injured, Bama has plenty to plug in. No offense on UT...I think Bama lays the wood here.
9. @LSU -1 v Georgia: I know everyone loves Mark Richt on the road, and Mark surely deserves kudos for winning so many road games over the past several years, but I think he's in a tough spot here. Georgia, as has been documented, is starting almost exclusively fresh and soph offensive linemen. That's probably bad news against this LSU front 7. In addition, Georgia's defense has not been a wrecking ball, having leaked like a sieve against Bama. Lee or Hatch might have a fighting chance in this one. Based on Georgia's line issues, and the perception that there has been something awry pretty much all year for Georgia, I'm going to put some stock in the home team here.
10. MTSU+10 1/2 @ Mississippi St: If I'm a Mississippi St fan, I am deathly afraid that my team loses this game. MTSU has hung with all of the FBS teams they have played thus far, and won against Maryland. Miss St of course, "struggles" on offense, which normally doesn't bode well for DD favorites. MTSU could possibly win this outright.... it certainly wouldn't be a shock. There's enough talent among the Blue Raiders to hang within 10.
11. @Tulsa -23 v Central Florida: (SUNDAY)Big spread here, but Tulsa has been absolutely devastating at home, having beaten Rice by 35, New Mexico by 42 and UTEP by 42 last week. These are not complete pushovers either, as all 3 have had good performances this year, including UTEP's 58-13 demolition of Central Florida the last time they ventured out to the West. Tulsa has the best offense in the country.There can be almost no argument about that. They average more than 100 yds per game more than the likes of Missouri, Oklahoma State, Illinois for example, and average almost a full yard per play more than the #2 offense in the country, Texas Tech. Central Florida, might have the must putrid offense in the country, and upon further investigation, indeed they do, as they rank 120th in total offense. I don't care how good UCF thinks it's defense is, they will get torched, and they'll probably struggle to put up more than about 17. That won't cut it.
12. @Arkansas +6 1/2 v Ole MIss: I am generally very loyal to statistical analysis. Those who dismiss stats as not noteworthy are dullard neanderthals. In this case, though, I think we need to put our situational handicapping hats on. Most of the world is on Ole MIss here, and I understand why, because they have statistically stood up to very tough competition, i.e. Florida and Bama. However, when it comes to taking care of business as a favorite, they haven't done it, losing at home to Vandy and South Carolina. Arkansas is playing a lot better lately and should have beaten Kentucky on the road last week if not for 2 late TDs from the Wildcats. Now, after a very tough game with Bama in which they left disappointed, they have to turn around and go on the road again and are expected to handle an improving team with a good coaching staff. If we see Arkansas morph back into the turnover spewing abomination they were earlier in the year, they're screwed, but if not, they have a great shot. Keep in mind that these are two 3-4 teams, too, as much as we all like Ole Miss.
Others....Fresno is a big favorite against Utah St (-16). Their defense has been very poor this year, and Utah St has shown signs of hanging in at home..actually playing competitively. If Fresno is disinterested, they can absolutely find themselves in a dogfight....Cincinnati has their original 2nd string QB(Tony Pike) back this week, and he had very good success earlier in the year before injury. They are slight favorites(-2) on the road against UConn, who is probably going to be without their QB Frazer, so they are down to several guys who have not taken a snap. Cincy stops the run, so UConn might find themselves in a bit of a pickle.....The Illini should be able to handle Wisconsin...I won't jinx them any further by elaborating......BG looked terrible last week, and now they travel to play NIU in DeKalb, where they have had great success in the past. In another situational situation(!!)I can see them covering the 8....TONIGHT...I am not sold on Boise's offense. They are laying 7 at San Jose St tonight, and SJSU's defense is ranked in the top 12 nationally. Boise's freshman QB and overrated RB Johnson might struggle, much like they did for the most part at home against a weak Hawaii defense last week......It's not a musing due to the large spread, but Florida is a 24 1/2 point favorite at home against Kentucky. Don't expect Urban Meyer to take his foot off the gas since they are in "impress the voters" mode. Kentucky, already hellaciously bad on offense, had a couple more injuries last week, so they are even more hamstrung than usual. Now they're hurt on defense as well, as two more linebackers aren't going to play. I've heard that Rich Brooks is sitting out a couple other guys so they can rest up for later games in an attmpt to punt this game and win later. This could get very ugly very quickly. It's not a musing because of the size of the line in the SEC, and because Florida has Georgia on deck, but it almost was one anyway......Minnesota is a 2 point favorite on the road at Purdue. I am not sold on any favorite that cannot stop a soul in the passing game. They have survived on luck and dirty tricks on D so far. If Purdue shows up with their offense clicking, Minnesota will be giving up yards in boulder sized chunks. If they struggle at all on offense in that scenario, they won't win....I like both Michigan and Penn State this week in the Big Ten because they are playing teams that are too one dimensional. For example, Ohio St's only chance in their game is if they absolutely dominate Penn St on the ground. I don't think that's going to happen. ......If Arizona gets up to +17 or so, I'll also be biting, since they have been very good at home, and USC is due to get full of themselves again. Actually, who am I kidding? I'll be on them at the current 15 as well. .....That's it or this week. Hope everyone does well.........
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Week 8 Musings
As I write this Tampa Bay is wrapping up the ALCS, up 7-0 in the seventh inning. That does not make me happy, so let me share with you why that is. As a Cub fan, I have to say that this completes the golden sombrero of embarrassment for the Cubs. I remember a conversation I had with Mike, probably 10 years ago, perhaps in '98 when the D-Backs and Devil Rays first came into existence where we agreed that those two teams, along with Florida and Colorado(the previous expansion teams) would all make the World Series, and would probably all win it before the Cubs made it. Well, at that point, Florida had won it and subsequently dismantled their team the year prior, so we had to agree that they would win one, dismantle the team, completely rebuild it and win another one before the Cubs would make a World Series. So what happened? Arizona won one a mere 3 years after opening their doors. Florida did indeed win another one, at the famously direct expense of the Cubs, of course. Colorado made one last year, and now, the icing on the cake, the absolute worst excuse for a franchise, a team that plays it's games in an airplane hangar with catwalks leading to nowhere, a team that has had 5 uniform changes and even a name change in only 10 years of existence, a team that prior to this year had never lost fewer than 93 games, gets to go to the World Series in the first year it ever posts a winning record. Call me a typical whiny Cub fan if you will, but that shit ain't fair. I could go on and on about "deserving" fan bases, and actually, that's a bunch of crap, but come on.....are you trying to tell me that the great people of that thriving baseball metropolis of Tampa Bay(actually, there's no such place, only Tampa)deserve to celebrate a World Series appearance? The state of Florida gets 3 in 10 years, and we get jack shit? I hope the Phils sweep those dickheads right out of that raw sewage smelling, rat infested idiot circus cesspool they call a ballpark post haste. Oh, and by the way, congratulations Fox on getting the worst possible TV matchup imaginable considering the postseason participants. I'm sure Joe Buck will enjoy calling game one of the fall classic from a cattle barn. I can't wait to not watch an inning of it. (Late note...Boston came back to win this game somehow....can we hold out hope???)
Like I said earlier, 6-5 last week. NC State did all they could to turn a 4 point 4th Q lead into a blown cover, but they held on so we're off to a good week. Should have pulled the trigger on TCU...I had a feeling BYU was headed for an unplanned, highly unpleasant and overly intrusive rectal exam. Oh well.....
2. @Boise St -23 1/2 v Hawaii: This is obviously a risky play, since I'm supposed to have been sworn off large favorites, but onthe blue turf, I'll bite. Boise thus far this year has allowed 3,7 and 7 points in their 3 home games. Hawaii is averaging 264 yards of total offense in their forays to the mainland in the post Brennan/June Jones era. Now they go on the blue turf against a Boise team that has looked very good this year and remains motivate to pay back the 'Bows for rubbing their noses in it last year late in the year on the island. Inoke Funaki is Hawaii's QB, and predictably, he has not been impressive. Given Boise's track record this year, I would be very surprised if Hawaii records more than 1 TD in this game, and if they do that they'll have to hold Boise to 38 to cover. I don't see that happening, since they are averaging allowing 43 per game on the road. Also, the last time Hawaii came to Boise without Brennan, the situation was eerily similar. 23 point spread, Boise undefeated, Asian QB for the 'Bows(remember Timmy Chang?) Final Score? 69-3. I don't think it will get that out of hand, but it might.
3. @Virginia +4 1/2 v North Carolina: If you've followed the musings the past 2 weeks, you've cashed tickets on the Cavaliers as home dogs rather easily and without incident. Now, for the third consecutive week, here they are again, catching more than a FG against a very opportunistic but confident North Carolina bunvh, who has been a friend to the musings as well. Certainly, Virginia's recent success has been no fluke. Since they have gotten reacquainted with their running game and and gotten comfortable with new QB MarcVerica they have shown soe real promise. Verica is 50/66 for a 75% completion clip in their wins over Maryland and ECU, and they have easily outgained both opponents. RB Cedric Peerman has run for 293 yards in those two games on only 34 carries, good for an 8+ clip. Meanwhile, UNC has lived somewhat of a charmed life lately, riding turnovers to wins over ND and UConn at home. They also beat Miami on the road 3 weeks ago, but were dominated statistically in that game. Miami subsequently has been unimpressive since, and now finds itself only a 3 point favorite over Duke, so, nuff said. UNC is due for a clunker, and they're a young team that is getting very impressed with themselves. They're expected to win in a place they haven't won since 1981(!!), and they probably believe it too. Major let down spot after the exciting win over ND last week(in which ND outgained them by 150+). Great chance for an outright winner for Virginia here...I'd actually say that the wrong team might be favored here.
4. Ole Miss +13 @Alabama: This is one of those plays that just looks like a tight contest. Ole Miss is good as a dog, Bama bad as a favorite. Ole Miss has outrushed every opponent they've faced this year, as has Bama, but there is some evidence there that they can control the clock, and they showed against Florida that they can be explosive in the passing game. I seriously doubt that they will be able to knock off a second top 5 team on the road in the same year, but I do think they can hang in this spot, since they have shown a penchant for being an annoying dog, and 'Bama has never been the type of team that can just blow people away.
5. Mississippi St +7 1/2 @ Tennessee: There was much better value on this earlier in the week, but I have to jump at it. Tennessee is in complete disarray right now as their AD recently said that he "would not rule out" making a coaching change in mid-season, in the wake of the Clemson coaching move. So now, Phil Fullmer has to think about two things at once, and he has enough trouble worrying about one, namely getting his team in a position to have any semblance offense. Don't look now, but MSU is pretty good on defense, and since they made the move to Tyson Lee at QB, they have been almost competent on offense, beating up Vandy's solid D last week, and notching 24 points in Baton Rouge the week before that. This is also one of the few times that Sly Croom won't be hopelessly overmatched in his game planning. Boo birds might be out early and often in Knoxville, and if the Vols should drop this one, you might see the long long LONG overdue firing of P funk.
6. Memphis +8 1/2 @ East Carolina: ECU was a great dog to back early in the season, and we did, but they are a completely different team now. They suffered major losses on the defensive side of the ball, and have a ton of people banged up this week. In comes Memphis, off a tough loss to Louisville in which they outgained he Cards by 182 yards but lost due to some brutal bounces. These two teams met last year in Memphis and ECU piled up 600+ yards in a shootout that could be called the Chris Johnson show. He ran for 301 yards on 20 carries, scored 5 TDs and led them to a 56-40 win. However, Johnson is gone now, and the ECU offense has sputtered since early in the year. Also, in that game last year, Memphis used their huge receiving corps to pile up 400+ through the air, and all of those receivers are back this year to terrorize ECU's secondary again. ECU is on such a terrible run that they cannot be trusted to cover a spread of more than a score, especially when facing a team that will undoubtedly be able to score on them.
7. Arkansas +7 1/2 @Kentucky: I'm a little disturbed about this one because it opened at 10 1/2, but the nature of my existence is that I really don't have the ability to jump on lines as quickly as I should. Basically, Kentucky is completely lost on offense right now...nobody knows who is going to play quarterback for them, and their best receiver, Dicky Lyons, Jr (great SEC football name, by the way) is injured and listed as out for this game. Meanwhile, Petrino and company continue to improve every week, and the Hogs once again made my day by shitting all over that walking hemorroid Tommy Tuberville for the third year in a row. Michael Smith is emerging as one of the SEC's few non-Florida offensive playmakers, and Casey Dick only turned it over 3 times last week, so he's gone from "ham-fisted turnover machine" to merely "mistake prone" in the past couple of weeks. Basically, I think Arkansas has enough offense, and Kentucky lacks enough offense to keep this one close, and in my estimation, it could go either way. Also keep in mind that Petrino and Brooks have played each other several times from BP's Louisville days, and let's just say that Coach Brooks was glad he left the state of Kentucky.
8. Miami(OH) +9 1/2 @ Bowling Green: Looking at this one, I am scratching my head trying to determine why in the hell BG is a sizable favorite against anyone with a pulse these days. I suppose they have garnered some consideration because of their win over Pitt 28 weeks ago or whatever it was. Since then they are 2-3 with losses to Eastern Michigan at home and blowout losses to Boise and Minnesota. They actually should have lost to Akkron last week as well, but snuck out a victory late. Miami is coming off a close loss to NIU, and although they have struggled this year, they have skill position players with experience, and are unlikely to get blown out. If BG was among the heavyweights of the MAC, this line would be legit, but they aren't. If we know anything about that MAC, it's that it's folly to lay sizable points with anyone, and I've learned that lesson myself.
9. @Iowa St +7 1/2 v Nebraska: Everyone on earth was falling all over themselves to declare how impressed they were with good guy Bo Pelini and his band of corn fed buffoons in their game at Texas Tech last week. Hey! They didn't get completely blown out, and actually took the Red Raiders to OT, only to lose. In my opinion, they couldn't be in a worse spot. Consecutive road games under a new coach, playing on the road as more than a TD favorite against a pretty good offensive squad when you can't stop a soul on defense. In my opinion, Nebraska is getting the respect normally reserved for a top 25 team in this spot, and they are definitely not that. Iowa St, though they were slapped around on the road against Baylor last week, has shown some things at home, including a definite ability to move the ball. QB Austen Arnaud is completing 60% of his balls and has an 8/4 ratio, so he's capable, and Nebraska is giving up more than 10 per attempt on the road against the pass. The world is on Nebraska. A leaky defense laying points on the road against a capable offensive squad, as I have mentioned, is very dangerous.
10. @Arizona +2 1/2 v Cal: Hey, it's hard to win on the road. Ask Cal after their trip to Maryland earlier this year. In their home ballpark, the Cats have been very good, although you can criticize their schedule thus far. Losses to Stanford and New Mexico on the road have Arizona lacking respect from the books, which could be legit, but I think they will come out fired up at home this week. Until this past week, Arizona had outgained all of it's opponents badly, and has played very well defensively. I think this is a game that Cal will get their best shot, and coming off a loss, I don't think Arizona will get caught looking ahead to their game next week with USC. I am still not sold on Cal, as they have a penchant to mail games in from time to time. Willie Tuitama has it going in the passing game (13/2 ratio, 66% completions) and they have been able to run it as well. Also remember that two years ago, Cal lost in Tuscon as a 13 point favorite despite holding UA's offense in check and getting breakout performances from Marshawn Lynch and Desean Jackson(including a 90+ yard punt return). Arizona is now better, Cal is now worse. The point being, Cal can find a way to lose, and in this case, I'm not even sure they're the better team.
11. Georgia Tech -2 @Clemson: At first I thought that Clemson might be dangerous this week, since it appears that Tommy Bowden's ouster might actually lower the pansy quotient on this squad, but after further reflection, I think not. Ga Tech spent the last week getting their offensive skill guys healthy, and their defense has never been a question. Clemson's offense has been, to say the least, and we still don't know who's playing QB. What we do know though, is that Clemson's offensive line is in shambles, and now CJ Spiller is hurt, so the home run threat is out the window. Paul Johnson vs this patchwork coaching staff for Clemson is a mismatch. I can't see Clemson sackng up and taking care of business here, even when they are getting poits at home.
Others: I like Eastern Michigan to beat Akron at home this week. EMU's QB is back, and Akron just moved to -4 1/2 as a road favorite. I don't think so.....I'm leaning toward Iowa(-4), because they have been dominating on both sides of the ball when it comes to the run game. The wheels have fallen off for the Badgers, and they have zero passing game to speak of, unless they sneak Darrell Bevell into Evridge's uniform and nobody notices. UW is yet another team that hasn't announced a starting QB. I wish Texas Tech was around -17, but they'll probably lay it on A&M even at -20 1/2. Louisville will probably get caught looking ahead to their game with South Florida, MTSU, who has been good as a dog might have some good value at +15....If QB Ryan Lindley plays for San Diego St(gametime decision), I think SDSU can hang with New Mexico. That's more of a hunch than anythng else. I kind of like Purdue getting points at Northwestern as well. I have a feeling that the 'Cats are a fraud, and I think Purdue can bounce back from a couple of subpar offensive performances. We're going to be in Champaign this weekend, so hopefully the Illini can avoid outgaining their opponent by 300+ and finding a way to lose. Good Luck to all, knock 'em dead.
Like I said earlier, 6-5 last week. NC State did all they could to turn a 4 point 4th Q lead into a blown cover, but they held on so we're off to a good week. Should have pulled the trigger on TCU...I had a feeling BYU was headed for an unplanned, highly unpleasant and overly intrusive rectal exam. Oh well.....
2. @Boise St -23 1/2 v Hawaii: This is obviously a risky play, since I'm supposed to have been sworn off large favorites, but onthe blue turf, I'll bite. Boise thus far this year has allowed 3,7 and 7 points in their 3 home games. Hawaii is averaging 264 yards of total offense in their forays to the mainland in the post Brennan/June Jones era. Now they go on the blue turf against a Boise team that has looked very good this year and remains motivate to pay back the 'Bows for rubbing their noses in it last year late in the year on the island. Inoke Funaki is Hawaii's QB, and predictably, he has not been impressive. Given Boise's track record this year, I would be very surprised if Hawaii records more than 1 TD in this game, and if they do that they'll have to hold Boise to 38 to cover. I don't see that happening, since they are averaging allowing 43 per game on the road. Also, the last time Hawaii came to Boise without Brennan, the situation was eerily similar. 23 point spread, Boise undefeated, Asian QB for the 'Bows(remember Timmy Chang?) Final Score? 69-3. I don't think it will get that out of hand, but it might.
3. @Virginia +4 1/2 v North Carolina: If you've followed the musings the past 2 weeks, you've cashed tickets on the Cavaliers as home dogs rather easily and without incident. Now, for the third consecutive week, here they are again, catching more than a FG against a very opportunistic but confident North Carolina bunvh, who has been a friend to the musings as well. Certainly, Virginia's recent success has been no fluke. Since they have gotten reacquainted with their running game and and gotten comfortable with new QB MarcVerica they have shown soe real promise. Verica is 50/66 for a 75% completion clip in their wins over Maryland and ECU, and they have easily outgained both opponents. RB Cedric Peerman has run for 293 yards in those two games on only 34 carries, good for an 8+ clip. Meanwhile, UNC has lived somewhat of a charmed life lately, riding turnovers to wins over ND and UConn at home. They also beat Miami on the road 3 weeks ago, but were dominated statistically in that game. Miami subsequently has been unimpressive since, and now finds itself only a 3 point favorite over Duke, so, nuff said. UNC is due for a clunker, and they're a young team that is getting very impressed with themselves. They're expected to win in a place they haven't won since 1981(!!), and they probably believe it too. Major let down spot after the exciting win over ND last week(in which ND outgained them by 150+). Great chance for an outright winner for Virginia here...I'd actually say that the wrong team might be favored here.
4. Ole Miss +13 @Alabama: This is one of those plays that just looks like a tight contest. Ole Miss is good as a dog, Bama bad as a favorite. Ole Miss has outrushed every opponent they've faced this year, as has Bama, but there is some evidence there that they can control the clock, and they showed against Florida that they can be explosive in the passing game. I seriously doubt that they will be able to knock off a second top 5 team on the road in the same year, but I do think they can hang in this spot, since they have shown a penchant for being an annoying dog, and 'Bama has never been the type of team that can just blow people away.
5. Mississippi St +7 1/2 @ Tennessee: There was much better value on this earlier in the week, but I have to jump at it. Tennessee is in complete disarray right now as their AD recently said that he "would not rule out" making a coaching change in mid-season, in the wake of the Clemson coaching move. So now, Phil Fullmer has to think about two things at once, and he has enough trouble worrying about one, namely getting his team in a position to have any semblance offense. Don't look now, but MSU is pretty good on defense, and since they made the move to Tyson Lee at QB, they have been almost competent on offense, beating up Vandy's solid D last week, and notching 24 points in Baton Rouge the week before that. This is also one of the few times that Sly Croom won't be hopelessly overmatched in his game planning. Boo birds might be out early and often in Knoxville, and if the Vols should drop this one, you might see the long long LONG overdue firing of P funk.
6. Memphis +8 1/2 @ East Carolina: ECU was a great dog to back early in the season, and we did, but they are a completely different team now. They suffered major losses on the defensive side of the ball, and have a ton of people banged up this week. In comes Memphis, off a tough loss to Louisville in which they outgained he Cards by 182 yards but lost due to some brutal bounces. These two teams met last year in Memphis and ECU piled up 600+ yards in a shootout that could be called the Chris Johnson show. He ran for 301 yards on 20 carries, scored 5 TDs and led them to a 56-40 win. However, Johnson is gone now, and the ECU offense has sputtered since early in the year. Also, in that game last year, Memphis used their huge receiving corps to pile up 400+ through the air, and all of those receivers are back this year to terrorize ECU's secondary again. ECU is on such a terrible run that they cannot be trusted to cover a spread of more than a score, especially when facing a team that will undoubtedly be able to score on them.
7. Arkansas +7 1/2 @Kentucky: I'm a little disturbed about this one because it opened at 10 1/2, but the nature of my existence is that I really don't have the ability to jump on lines as quickly as I should. Basically, Kentucky is completely lost on offense right now...nobody knows who is going to play quarterback for them, and their best receiver, Dicky Lyons, Jr (great SEC football name, by the way) is injured and listed as out for this game. Meanwhile, Petrino and company continue to improve every week, and the Hogs once again made my day by shitting all over that walking hemorroid Tommy Tuberville for the third year in a row. Michael Smith is emerging as one of the SEC's few non-Florida offensive playmakers, and Casey Dick only turned it over 3 times last week, so he's gone from "ham-fisted turnover machine" to merely "mistake prone" in the past couple of weeks. Basically, I think Arkansas has enough offense, and Kentucky lacks enough offense to keep this one close, and in my estimation, it could go either way. Also keep in mind that Petrino and Brooks have played each other several times from BP's Louisville days, and let's just say that Coach Brooks was glad he left the state of Kentucky.
8. Miami(OH) +9 1/2 @ Bowling Green: Looking at this one, I am scratching my head trying to determine why in the hell BG is a sizable favorite against anyone with a pulse these days. I suppose they have garnered some consideration because of their win over Pitt 28 weeks ago or whatever it was. Since then they are 2-3 with losses to Eastern Michigan at home and blowout losses to Boise and Minnesota. They actually should have lost to Akkron last week as well, but snuck out a victory late. Miami is coming off a close loss to NIU, and although they have struggled this year, they have skill position players with experience, and are unlikely to get blown out. If BG was among the heavyweights of the MAC, this line would be legit, but they aren't. If we know anything about that MAC, it's that it's folly to lay sizable points with anyone, and I've learned that lesson myself.
9. @Iowa St +7 1/2 v Nebraska: Everyone on earth was falling all over themselves to declare how impressed they were with good guy Bo Pelini and his band of corn fed buffoons in their game at Texas Tech last week. Hey! They didn't get completely blown out, and actually took the Red Raiders to OT, only to lose. In my opinion, they couldn't be in a worse spot. Consecutive road games under a new coach, playing on the road as more than a TD favorite against a pretty good offensive squad when you can't stop a soul on defense. In my opinion, Nebraska is getting the respect normally reserved for a top 25 team in this spot, and they are definitely not that. Iowa St, though they were slapped around on the road against Baylor last week, has shown some things at home, including a definite ability to move the ball. QB Austen Arnaud is completing 60% of his balls and has an 8/4 ratio, so he's capable, and Nebraska is giving up more than 10 per attempt on the road against the pass. The world is on Nebraska. A leaky defense laying points on the road against a capable offensive squad, as I have mentioned, is very dangerous.
10. @Arizona +2 1/2 v Cal: Hey, it's hard to win on the road. Ask Cal after their trip to Maryland earlier this year. In their home ballpark, the Cats have been very good, although you can criticize their schedule thus far. Losses to Stanford and New Mexico on the road have Arizona lacking respect from the books, which could be legit, but I think they will come out fired up at home this week. Until this past week, Arizona had outgained all of it's opponents badly, and has played very well defensively. I think this is a game that Cal will get their best shot, and coming off a loss, I don't think Arizona will get caught looking ahead to their game next week with USC. I am still not sold on Cal, as they have a penchant to mail games in from time to time. Willie Tuitama has it going in the passing game (13/2 ratio, 66% completions) and they have been able to run it as well. Also remember that two years ago, Cal lost in Tuscon as a 13 point favorite despite holding UA's offense in check and getting breakout performances from Marshawn Lynch and Desean Jackson(including a 90+ yard punt return). Arizona is now better, Cal is now worse. The point being, Cal can find a way to lose, and in this case, I'm not even sure they're the better team.
11. Georgia Tech -2 @Clemson: At first I thought that Clemson might be dangerous this week, since it appears that Tommy Bowden's ouster might actually lower the pansy quotient on this squad, but after further reflection, I think not. Ga Tech spent the last week getting their offensive skill guys healthy, and their defense has never been a question. Clemson's offense has been, to say the least, and we still don't know who's playing QB. What we do know though, is that Clemson's offensive line is in shambles, and now CJ Spiller is hurt, so the home run threat is out the window. Paul Johnson vs this patchwork coaching staff for Clemson is a mismatch. I can't see Clemson sackng up and taking care of business here, even when they are getting poits at home.
Others: I like Eastern Michigan to beat Akron at home this week. EMU's QB is back, and Akron just moved to -4 1/2 as a road favorite. I don't think so.....I'm leaning toward Iowa(-4), because they have been dominating on both sides of the ball when it comes to the run game. The wheels have fallen off for the Badgers, and they have zero passing game to speak of, unless they sneak Darrell Bevell into Evridge's uniform and nobody notices. UW is yet another team that hasn't announced a starting QB. I wish Texas Tech was around -17, but they'll probably lay it on A&M even at -20 1/2. Louisville will probably get caught looking ahead to their game with South Florida, MTSU, who has been good as a dog might have some good value at +15....If QB Ryan Lindley plays for San Diego St(gametime decision), I think SDSU can hang with New Mexico. That's more of a hunch than anythng else. I kind of like Purdue getting points at Northwestern as well. I have a feeling that the 'Cats are a fraud, and I think Purdue can bounce back from a couple of subpar offensive performances. We're going to be in Champaign this weekend, so hopefully the Illini can avoid outgaining their opponent by 300+ and finding a way to lose. Good Luck to all, knock 'em dead.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Week 8 Weeknight Musings
Quick recap: Went 6-5 last week to bring the total number to 41-32-5, or about a slightly higher than 56% clip. Ho-hum for the most part. Hopefully we'll have a better week this week, although I must say that the lines appear a bit tight, and as usual, the numbers have moved contrary to my wishes despite heavy action on the other side in many cases. Frustrating. More to come later.
1. Tonight. @ NC State +11 v Florida St: Will I be on a double digit home dog on Thursday night? Friends, if you have to ask this question, I have a series of others for you: Does a bear shit in the woods? Does the Pope wear a funny hat? Is the sky blue? Will Obama carry Harvey, IL (if anyone can figure out a way to stagger into the polling places)? Yes! With vigor, I will type in 1 unit and press submit. So far this year there have been 4 home dogs on the Thursday night ESPN game(if you count Wake last week, who moved to a dog late in the day Thursday), and those dogs are 4-0 outright. That includes a couple of significant dogs in Vandy v South Carolina in week 2 and of course, the Oregon St victory over USC in the Trojans' annual gag job. In this game, we have NC State, who has been up and down, with their fortunes fluctuating based on the availability of their starting QB Russell Wilson. In week 1 vs South Carolina, he got hurt in the first half, after which NC State got blitzkrieged. In the subsequent games they've had him, they beat East Carolina and hung to the end with BC as significant dogs. In the games they haven't had him, they have gotten their asses kicked, mostly due to the 43% completion ratio and 2/8 TD/INT ratios of their horse manure backups. One of these backups, Daniel Evans, actually beat FSU on Thursday night 2 years ago in a very similar pointspread situation. With Wilson in there, NC State is betable. Florida St, meanwhile has played much better since their laughable performance earlier in the year against Wake, with back to back victories against Colorado and Miami in which they outgained both rather easily. However, they still have exhibited a penchant for letting teams they should be hammering stay around, like the Miami game. They are still terribly mistake prone, and if they make mistakes in this game, (which based on past experience is almost a certainty), they run a large risk of losing outright. I will certainly take the 11. Actually, in my estimation the chances of NC State winning this game are probably equal to those of FSU covering an 11 point spread. Lots of value on NC State here.
I am still looking at the other game for tonight, which should be a very good one in the Mountain West, BYU(-2) @ TCU. People have been pointing to the season wrap-up game between BYU and Utah as the end all be all in the MWC this year, but TCU has been flying somewhat under the radar this year, spending most of it's time dismantling opposing offenses. Big trouble potentially for BYU tonight. They've been screwing around against inferior competition the past couple of weeks, so they've gotten out of rhythm, and they have shown some weakness on the road against the likes of Washington and Utah St. TCU will be licking their chops waiting for the Cougs. Not sure if TCU has the offense to win this one, but I might be back with another play later on,.....
1. Tonight. @ NC State +11 v Florida St: Will I be on a double digit home dog on Thursday night? Friends, if you have to ask this question, I have a series of others for you: Does a bear shit in the woods? Does the Pope wear a funny hat? Is the sky blue? Will Obama carry Harvey, IL (if anyone can figure out a way to stagger into the polling places)? Yes! With vigor, I will type in 1 unit and press submit. So far this year there have been 4 home dogs on the Thursday night ESPN game(if you count Wake last week, who moved to a dog late in the day Thursday), and those dogs are 4-0 outright. That includes a couple of significant dogs in Vandy v South Carolina in week 2 and of course, the Oregon St victory over USC in the Trojans' annual gag job. In this game, we have NC State, who has been up and down, with their fortunes fluctuating based on the availability of their starting QB Russell Wilson. In week 1 vs South Carolina, he got hurt in the first half, after which NC State got blitzkrieged. In the subsequent games they've had him, they beat East Carolina and hung to the end with BC as significant dogs. In the games they haven't had him, they have gotten their asses kicked, mostly due to the 43% completion ratio and 2/8 TD/INT ratios of their horse manure backups. One of these backups, Daniel Evans, actually beat FSU on Thursday night 2 years ago in a very similar pointspread situation. With Wilson in there, NC State is betable. Florida St, meanwhile has played much better since their laughable performance earlier in the year against Wake, with back to back victories against Colorado and Miami in which they outgained both rather easily. However, they still have exhibited a penchant for letting teams they should be hammering stay around, like the Miami game. They are still terribly mistake prone, and if they make mistakes in this game, (which based on past experience is almost a certainty), they run a large risk of losing outright. I will certainly take the 11. Actually, in my estimation the chances of NC State winning this game are probably equal to those of FSU covering an 11 point spread. Lots of value on NC State here.
I am still looking at the other game for tonight, which should be a very good one in the Mountain West, BYU(-2) @ TCU. People have been pointing to the season wrap-up game between BYU and Utah as the end all be all in the MWC this year, but TCU has been flying somewhat under the radar this year, spending most of it's time dismantling opposing offenses. Big trouble potentially for BYU tonight. They've been screwing around against inferior competition the past couple of weeks, so they've gotten out of rhythm, and they have shown some weakness on the road against the likes of Washington and Utah St. TCU will be licking their chops waiting for the Cougs. Not sure if TCU has the offense to win this one, but I might be back with another play later on,.....
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Week 7 Musings
Sorry these are late....did not notice that they did not get posted until now.
Looking back on last week's musings, I noticed that I failed to mention the results of week 5, which were a continuation of week 4, which is to say, a train wreck. However, the train got back on the tracks in week 6 to the tune of 11-3-1. That brings the musings total to 32-24-5 on the year, which comes out to just over 57%, which is the amended, socialist government style "let's make it easier for little Johnny, everyone deserves a trophy" goal.
I've found that the Cubs flame out gag job in round one did not bother me all that much. In a way, this kid of bothers me. If I don't care so much if they lose, I guess I won't be as giddy if they happen to win. Another sign of getting old, I guess. My advice to Jim Hendry, although others might be catching on: Find yourself a first baseman. Slappy Lee is just not going to cut it anymore. We all know he's a nice guy, complete with "veteran presence" and "proven leadership", and that he "plays the game the right way". However, two years running of "chopping into routine double plays" and "hitting warning track flyballs" are getting old. .290 hitters with 20 homers and 90 RBI at first base are a dime a dozen, and there are 20 guys in the majors at first right now who can equal or beat that production at half the salary Lee makes. Seriously, by the end of the year, the at bats were just a matter of where the sharp grounder would end up. If he found a hole for his inevitable worm burner, great. If not, you better hope there's nobody on first. The Cubs biggest weakness is the fact that their #3 hitter was not appreciable better than their #7 and sometimes #8 hitter. Granted, that's more a testament to the depth of their batting order, but still....you need a difference maker in the 3 hole, not a groundball machine who regurgitates appropriate soundbites with aplomb. They're set in the rotation, probably even whether they re-sign Dempster or not. They just need to upgrade at first, that's about it. Oh yeah, and they need to teach Soriano how to play baseball. Other than that, they're in good shape.
I held off on the weeknight games this week. I actually liked Clemson getting 2 1/2 during the week, but I don't bet on bags of faggots, so I played only 1/2 unit to make it interesting. Then the line started moving in hyper speed the other way, actually reaching Clemson -2 right at kickoff, so I dropped everything and played a middle, meaning a 1 or 2 point game either way would pay me twice. Almost happened too, but Clemson predictably screeched like a bunch of teenage girls and ran effeminately back to the locker room with a 5 point loss when they had a chance to win with a heroic TD drive. Alas, it was not to be, so I am now $2 poorer. On to this week.
1. Michigan St pk @Northwestern: If the 'Cats were catching some points here, say 4 or more, I bet they would cover, and probably win outright. But as a slight favorite, or a pick, or even as a 1 point dog, I don't see them coming through. Michigan St is the real deal. They rely on Ringer more than they need to in my opinion, i.e. 47 carries in a game with FAU, but they are well coached and play with a purpose. NU has been a nice surprise as well, but now they are getting some pub...the timing is such that we are reaching the time where everyone feels great about this, Chicago starts to take notice of such a phenomenon as college football, then they get beat and everyone goes back to their obsession with pro sports. Actually, the 'Cats have not played all that well. You can look at it two ways: they are either lucky, or the rest of the B10 better look out because they haven't even hot their stride yet. This year they have beaten Syracuse, (no great feat considering the Orange are dealing only in moral victories these days), Ohio,(by 8 at home), Duke(in a game they were outgained in by 144 yards)SIU(FCS school) and Iowa(Their fans look like a bunch of giant bumblebees with beards...and the men are even fatter and uglier). In the past, CJ Bacher and company have racked up yards and TDs like a bunch of maniacs, but this year, they've hit a rough patch, averaging only 5 .5 YPP. Bacher's INTs match his TDs. If they want to win this one, I think they'll need to put up probably 34 points, and they have fallen far short of that against much weaker competition. Maybe they'll break out and hang 48 on MSU like they did last year in East Lansing, but this team just looks a little weaker to me.
2. @Indiana +5 1/2 V Iowa: This is a risky pick, since IU has jumped out to an 0-2 start and has dropped 3 straight, but Iowa has done the same. Iowa continues to struggle throwing the ball, and can't settle on a QB. They have remained competitive because of their ability to run the ball well, and by playing passable defense. Indiana is a joke on the road, but they generally play well at home, with the biggest difference coming on defense. In all cases, this year they have stopped the run well, giving up only 3.1 per carry against a decent array of backs including Ringer for MSU and Lewis from Ball St. They also have shown a penchant for busting off big plays, something that Iowa never does. I see IU having a great shot at getting their first W in the league, and Iowa should certainly not be favored on the road against a team that is entirely capable of outscoring them.
3. @Virginia +6 v East Carolina: UVA had no problem handling Maryland last week. that they covered was not surprising, since it was called for in the musings, but that they completely shellacked Maryland WAS a surprise. This is because the 'Hoos have spent the better part of this year playing the part of Popeye in his pre-spinach encounters with Bluto. However, their new QB made himself comfortable at home, and Al Groh continues to cover like clockwork as a home dog. ECU has clearly never been comfortable in the favorite's role, and they have not been the sa,e since they lost their unquestioned defensive leader LB Quentin Cotton in week 3. Now they have to replace their top WR Jamar Bryant, who was suspended this week. Virginia looks to have found it's running game, and the defense handled a similar offense easily last week. They should keep this one close unless they turn it over like a bunch of wildmen.
4. Arkansas +18 @ Auburn: What a complete assface Tommy Tuberville is. A gutless, backstabbing dickhead. He's getting heat, logically for his team's complete inability to score or even move the ball at all over the past several weeks. So what does he do? He looks for a scapegoat, and who is more convenient than the miscreant that he himself brought in only 10 months ago to revamp an offense that sucked before the other guy got here. So he appeases the bloodthristy hordes by tossing Tony Franklin to them as a sacrifice and goes about his business. Stand by your assistants, a la Jerry Burns circa 1990 or whatever? Nooooo. "I'm not looking so good right now, so someone needs to be identified as the problem, and it sure the hell isn't going to be me. See ya, Tim, or Tom or Tony or whatever your name is...." Regardless of who they rely on to call plays, their offense is borderline putrid, ranking 104th in the country in total offense. I hate to keep touting Arkansas, but they continue to be much better than they have shown. They played with Florida for 50 minutes until a couple long runs killed them at the end of the game. If they can avoid turnovers, I jus can't see Auburn putting anything together in the way of a concept on offense. Lots of points for a team that doesn't score much.
5. Ball St -16 1/2 @ Western Kentucky: I can't really figure this one out. Ball St has established themselves as one of the best offensive teams around, but this year, they have commenced beat downs on people because of their defense. They were able to stop Navy's option(granted,the Jarrod Bryant version is no great shakes, but still...) IU's spread, and last week, they held Toledo to less than 200 in total offense. Keep in mind that Toledo racked up 600+ in their game with Fresno St, so shutting them down is a tough exercise. We all know that BSU has a good offense. The combination of good play on both sides of the ball will lead to major issues for WKU.
6. @Kentucky +2 v South Carolina: South Carolina is way too inconsistent to put together 2 solid outings on the road in my opinion. They went into Oxford MIssissippi and pulled off the win last week. Now they travel to Lexington to face a defense that hasn't given up a thing this year. Both defenses are good, but the offenses are not. South Carolina might have a little more firepower, but I think the solid D and home crowd will jack up the 'Cats. Remember that they only gave up 7 points last week, since one of Bama's TDs was a return.
7. @BYU -23 v New Mexico: BYU heard some criticism(from me) last week for their sluggish performance against Utah St. They admited to basically turning on the cruise control and turning the second half into a collective power nap. Bronco Mendenhall is a solid guy, it's almost certain that he lit up his team for that perforrmace. Now New Mexico comes to town with it's new QB, Brad Gruber, who has demonstrated that he cannot throw a forward pass.Their MO is to run it, but unfortunately for them, BYU stops the run very well. New Mexico is ranked 104th against the pass, BYU is known to chuck it successfully. Bad matchup for the Lobos. They'll be looking for style points for sure.
8. Tulane +4 @UTEP: This is an inflated line because UTEP has notched 2 wins in a row and because the Green Wave lost big to Army last week. Both results are misleading, as UTEP won a game last week in which it's opponent(Southern Miss) did not punt once. Tulane has racked up some very impressive yardage numbers on everyone they've played, so I really expect them to do the same here, since UTEP struggles a lot on defense. Remember, this is a team that dominated Alabama on the stat sheet earlier this year. I think they have a nice shot at the outright win.
9. @Missouri -14(-13.5 at Sportsbetting) v Oklahoma St: Lots and lots and lots of people are calling fr a lookahead situation, trap game, etc here for MIssouri. I just don't see it. It's a national TV game at night, so Mizzou should be rolling. Oklahoma St has been prolific on offense this year, but they have yet to play anyone.People were impressed with a big win over A&M last week, but they had 3 non-offensive TDs and got outgained for the game. Missouri, as we know, cannot be stopped( zero 3 and outs this year), and certainly can't be stopped by a weak outfit like OSU, who traditionally shits the bed defensively on the road. On the other hand, I think Mizzou can handle Ok St. They have done a nice job thus far this year against the run, ranking 14th in the nation at 2.68 per carry, and running the ball is OSU's forte. Don't forget that Mizzou has faced some dynamic rushing offenses, including Illinois, Nevada and Buffalo, so they haven't fattened up on cupcakes in that regard.It appears that Mizzou has overcome the unpleasantness of their poor pass defense performance against Illinois,as they have not struggled significantly against anyone else against the pass, including Nebraska, who scored only 17 on them in Lincoln. Okie St is going to have to put up 42 in my opinion to cover, and I don't see that happening.
10. @Texas Tech -20 1/2 v Nebraska: The Huskers do not have any good players on their defense, as Missouri demonstrated in Lincoln last week. Now the Huskers, fresh off back to back losses, goes to Lubbock this week to deal with our friend Mike Leach. Tech has improved pretty dramatically on defense, so it's possible that Nebraska might see a similar output to what they did last week, which wasn't much. This looks like a 49-20 game to me, maybe worse.
11. @Central Michigan -7 v Temple: Temple actually won outright for me last week, the second week in a row they were badly outgained only to come up with a cover. CMU always starts out slow, and then hits their stride about this time. Temple has been good defensively, but it doesn't matter what MAC team shows up to play CMU, the Chips will probably score some points. Also, they are still without their QB, so a freshman is playing in his first true road game. 7 is a short number in my opinion.
Others: Colorado St is getting 15 1/2 at home against TCU. The Frogs are the nation's #1 defensive team, but they don't score much without their starting QB, who might be out. CSU has proven they can run and pass...I think that will be a close one....Fresno St has a tendency to fold up the tent after a big disappointment, and Hawaii's victory over them last week fits the bill. Now Idaho is catching 34. Idaho is awful outside, but sometimes competitive in that goofy dome they play in. Fresno has lost outright as a double digit favorite 5 times in the last 3 years, so if they dropped this one, it wouldn't be a huge surprise...34 should definitely be do-able. I like OU to handle Texas in the RRS, and I think LSU should be played,with the 6 points. That's too much for LSU, even if Les Miles poops in his pants....a hunch tells me UCLA stays within 19 against Oregon, despite their putrid offnse and recent track record on the road....I also like Utah St to stay within 2 TD's at San Jose St, since this looks like a classic "teams in opposite directions" game. Utah St looks confident due to their abilit to play with BYU most of the game last Thursday. We'll see what happens. Good luck to all!
Looking back on last week's musings, I noticed that I failed to mention the results of week 5, which were a continuation of week 4, which is to say, a train wreck. However, the train got back on the tracks in week 6 to the tune of 11-3-1. That brings the musings total to 32-24-5 on the year, which comes out to just over 57%, which is the amended, socialist government style "let's make it easier for little Johnny, everyone deserves a trophy" goal.
I've found that the Cubs flame out gag job in round one did not bother me all that much. In a way, this kid of bothers me. If I don't care so much if they lose, I guess I won't be as giddy if they happen to win. Another sign of getting old, I guess. My advice to Jim Hendry, although others might be catching on: Find yourself a first baseman. Slappy Lee is just not going to cut it anymore. We all know he's a nice guy, complete with "veteran presence" and "proven leadership", and that he "plays the game the right way". However, two years running of "chopping into routine double plays" and "hitting warning track flyballs" are getting old. .290 hitters with 20 homers and 90 RBI at first base are a dime a dozen, and there are 20 guys in the majors at first right now who can equal or beat that production at half the salary Lee makes. Seriously, by the end of the year, the at bats were just a matter of where the sharp grounder would end up. If he found a hole for his inevitable worm burner, great. If not, you better hope there's nobody on first. The Cubs biggest weakness is the fact that their #3 hitter was not appreciable better than their #7 and sometimes #8 hitter. Granted, that's more a testament to the depth of their batting order, but still....you need a difference maker in the 3 hole, not a groundball machine who regurgitates appropriate soundbites with aplomb. They're set in the rotation, probably even whether they re-sign Dempster or not. They just need to upgrade at first, that's about it. Oh yeah, and they need to teach Soriano how to play baseball. Other than that, they're in good shape.
I held off on the weeknight games this week. I actually liked Clemson getting 2 1/2 during the week, but I don't bet on bags of faggots, so I played only 1/2 unit to make it interesting. Then the line started moving in hyper speed the other way, actually reaching Clemson -2 right at kickoff, so I dropped everything and played a middle, meaning a 1 or 2 point game either way would pay me twice. Almost happened too, but Clemson predictably screeched like a bunch of teenage girls and ran effeminately back to the locker room with a 5 point loss when they had a chance to win with a heroic TD drive. Alas, it was not to be, so I am now $2 poorer. On to this week.
1. Michigan St pk @Northwestern: If the 'Cats were catching some points here, say 4 or more, I bet they would cover, and probably win outright. But as a slight favorite, or a pick, or even as a 1 point dog, I don't see them coming through. Michigan St is the real deal. They rely on Ringer more than they need to in my opinion, i.e. 47 carries in a game with FAU, but they are well coached and play with a purpose. NU has been a nice surprise as well, but now they are getting some pub...the timing is such that we are reaching the time where everyone feels great about this, Chicago starts to take notice of such a phenomenon as college football, then they get beat and everyone goes back to their obsession with pro sports. Actually, the 'Cats have not played all that well. You can look at it two ways: they are either lucky, or the rest of the B10 better look out because they haven't even hot their stride yet. This year they have beaten Syracuse, (no great feat considering the Orange are dealing only in moral victories these days), Ohio,(by 8 at home), Duke(in a game they were outgained in by 144 yards)SIU(FCS school) and Iowa(Their fans look like a bunch of giant bumblebees with beards...and the men are even fatter and uglier). In the past, CJ Bacher and company have racked up yards and TDs like a bunch of maniacs, but this year, they've hit a rough patch, averaging only 5 .5 YPP. Bacher's INTs match his TDs. If they want to win this one, I think they'll need to put up probably 34 points, and they have fallen far short of that against much weaker competition. Maybe they'll break out and hang 48 on MSU like they did last year in East Lansing, but this team just looks a little weaker to me.
2. @Indiana +5 1/2 V Iowa: This is a risky pick, since IU has jumped out to an 0-2 start and has dropped 3 straight, but Iowa has done the same. Iowa continues to struggle throwing the ball, and can't settle on a QB. They have remained competitive because of their ability to run the ball well, and by playing passable defense. Indiana is a joke on the road, but they generally play well at home, with the biggest difference coming on defense. In all cases, this year they have stopped the run well, giving up only 3.1 per carry against a decent array of backs including Ringer for MSU and Lewis from Ball St. They also have shown a penchant for busting off big plays, something that Iowa never does. I see IU having a great shot at getting their first W in the league, and Iowa should certainly not be favored on the road against a team that is entirely capable of outscoring them.
3. @Virginia +6 v East Carolina: UVA had no problem handling Maryland last week. that they covered was not surprising, since it was called for in the musings, but that they completely shellacked Maryland WAS a surprise. This is because the 'Hoos have spent the better part of this year playing the part of Popeye in his pre-spinach encounters with Bluto. However, their new QB made himself comfortable at home, and Al Groh continues to cover like clockwork as a home dog. ECU has clearly never been comfortable in the favorite's role, and they have not been the sa,e since they lost their unquestioned defensive leader LB Quentin Cotton in week 3. Now they have to replace their top WR Jamar Bryant, who was suspended this week. Virginia looks to have found it's running game, and the defense handled a similar offense easily last week. They should keep this one close unless they turn it over like a bunch of wildmen.
4. Arkansas +18 @ Auburn: What a complete assface Tommy Tuberville is. A gutless, backstabbing dickhead. He's getting heat, logically for his team's complete inability to score or even move the ball at all over the past several weeks. So what does he do? He looks for a scapegoat, and who is more convenient than the miscreant that he himself brought in only 10 months ago to revamp an offense that sucked before the other guy got here. So he appeases the bloodthristy hordes by tossing Tony Franklin to them as a sacrifice and goes about his business. Stand by your assistants, a la Jerry Burns circa 1990 or whatever? Nooooo. "I'm not looking so good right now, so someone needs to be identified as the problem, and it sure the hell isn't going to be me. See ya, Tim, or Tom or Tony or whatever your name is...." Regardless of who they rely on to call plays, their offense is borderline putrid, ranking 104th in the country in total offense. I hate to keep touting Arkansas, but they continue to be much better than they have shown. They played with Florida for 50 minutes until a couple long runs killed them at the end of the game. If they can avoid turnovers, I jus can't see Auburn putting anything together in the way of a concept on offense. Lots of points for a team that doesn't score much.
5. Ball St -16 1/2 @ Western Kentucky: I can't really figure this one out. Ball St has established themselves as one of the best offensive teams around, but this year, they have commenced beat downs on people because of their defense. They were able to stop Navy's option(granted,the Jarrod Bryant version is no great shakes, but still...) IU's spread, and last week, they held Toledo to less than 200 in total offense. Keep in mind that Toledo racked up 600+ in their game with Fresno St, so shutting them down is a tough exercise. We all know that BSU has a good offense. The combination of good play on both sides of the ball will lead to major issues for WKU.
6. @Kentucky +2 v South Carolina: South Carolina is way too inconsistent to put together 2 solid outings on the road in my opinion. They went into Oxford MIssissippi and pulled off the win last week. Now they travel to Lexington to face a defense that hasn't given up a thing this year. Both defenses are good, but the offenses are not. South Carolina might have a little more firepower, but I think the solid D and home crowd will jack up the 'Cats. Remember that they only gave up 7 points last week, since one of Bama's TDs was a return.
7. @BYU -23 v New Mexico: BYU heard some criticism(from me) last week for their sluggish performance against Utah St. They admited to basically turning on the cruise control and turning the second half into a collective power nap. Bronco Mendenhall is a solid guy, it's almost certain that he lit up his team for that perforrmace. Now New Mexico comes to town with it's new QB, Brad Gruber, who has demonstrated that he cannot throw a forward pass.Their MO is to run it, but unfortunately for them, BYU stops the run very well. New Mexico is ranked 104th against the pass, BYU is known to chuck it successfully. Bad matchup for the Lobos. They'll be looking for style points for sure.
8. Tulane +4 @UTEP: This is an inflated line because UTEP has notched 2 wins in a row and because the Green Wave lost big to Army last week. Both results are misleading, as UTEP won a game last week in which it's opponent(Southern Miss) did not punt once. Tulane has racked up some very impressive yardage numbers on everyone they've played, so I really expect them to do the same here, since UTEP struggles a lot on defense. Remember, this is a team that dominated Alabama on the stat sheet earlier this year. I think they have a nice shot at the outright win.
9. @Missouri -14(-13.5 at Sportsbetting) v Oklahoma St: Lots and lots and lots of people are calling fr a lookahead situation, trap game, etc here for MIssouri. I just don't see it. It's a national TV game at night, so Mizzou should be rolling. Oklahoma St has been prolific on offense this year, but they have yet to play anyone.People were impressed with a big win over A&M last week, but they had 3 non-offensive TDs and got outgained for the game. Missouri, as we know, cannot be stopped( zero 3 and outs this year), and certainly can't be stopped by a weak outfit like OSU, who traditionally shits the bed defensively on the road. On the other hand, I think Mizzou can handle Ok St. They have done a nice job thus far this year against the run, ranking 14th in the nation at 2.68 per carry, and running the ball is OSU's forte. Don't forget that Mizzou has faced some dynamic rushing offenses, including Illinois, Nevada and Buffalo, so they haven't fattened up on cupcakes in that regard.It appears that Mizzou has overcome the unpleasantness of their poor pass defense performance against Illinois,as they have not struggled significantly against anyone else against the pass, including Nebraska, who scored only 17 on them in Lincoln. Okie St is going to have to put up 42 in my opinion to cover, and I don't see that happening.
10. @Texas Tech -20 1/2 v Nebraska: The Huskers do not have any good players on their defense, as Missouri demonstrated in Lincoln last week. Now the Huskers, fresh off back to back losses, goes to Lubbock this week to deal with our friend Mike Leach. Tech has improved pretty dramatically on defense, so it's possible that Nebraska might see a similar output to what they did last week, which wasn't much. This looks like a 49-20 game to me, maybe worse.
11. @Central Michigan -7 v Temple: Temple actually won outright for me last week, the second week in a row they were badly outgained only to come up with a cover. CMU always starts out slow, and then hits their stride about this time. Temple has been good defensively, but it doesn't matter what MAC team shows up to play CMU, the Chips will probably score some points. Also, they are still without their QB, so a freshman is playing in his first true road game. 7 is a short number in my opinion.
Others: Colorado St is getting 15 1/2 at home against TCU. The Frogs are the nation's #1 defensive team, but they don't score much without their starting QB, who might be out. CSU has proven they can run and pass...I think that will be a close one....Fresno St has a tendency to fold up the tent after a big disappointment, and Hawaii's victory over them last week fits the bill. Now Idaho is catching 34. Idaho is awful outside, but sometimes competitive in that goofy dome they play in. Fresno has lost outright as a double digit favorite 5 times in the last 3 years, so if they dropped this one, it wouldn't be a huge surprise...34 should definitely be do-able. I like OU to handle Texas in the RRS, and I think LSU should be played,with the 6 points. That's too much for LSU, even if Les Miles poops in his pants....a hunch tells me UCLA stays within 19 against Oregon, despite their putrid offnse and recent track record on the road....I also like Utah St to stay within 2 TD's at San Jose St, since this looks like a classic "teams in opposite directions" game. Utah St looks confident due to their abilit to play with BYU most of the game last Thursday. We'll see what happens. Good luck to all!
Saturday, October 4, 2008
Jarrod Bryant is going to ruin me
So Navy is one of my plays this week, +4 1/2 at Air Force. It's 10-10 when I turn it on, and horror of all horrors, Jarrod Bryant is in at QB instead of our good friend Kaipo. My bad that I did not check during the week to make sure that this scenario could be a possibility, because if it was, not only would I have been off Navy, I would have considered an Air Force bet.
So I watch, and the first offensive play for Navy is a busted pass play in which Bryant takes off, gets tackled and immediately fumbles. This of course was Navy's second TO in the half. Since then he's misread about 6 option plays, fumbled a snap and caused 3 false start penalties. I have lost hope for this play. (By the way, Navy's TD came on a blocked punt). Goint forward, if Kaipo is injured, Navy is outmatically out as a prospective play, and should be heavily considered as an automatic fade. Let me make this abundantly clear: Jarrod Bryant is an absolutely atrocious quarterback. Probably a nice kid and a good teammate, but an atrocious quarterback.
So I watch, and the first offensive play for Navy is a busted pass play in which Bryant takes off, gets tackled and immediately fumbles. This of course was Navy's second TO in the half. Since then he's misread about 6 option plays, fumbled a snap and caused 3 false start penalties. I have lost hope for this play. (By the way, Navy's TD came on a blocked punt). Goint forward, if Kaipo is injured, Navy is outmatically out as a prospective play, and should be heavily considered as an automatic fade. Let me make this abundantly clear: Jarrod Bryant is an absolutely atrocious quarterback. Probably a nice kid and a good teammate, but an atrocious quarterback.
Friday, October 3, 2008
A couple more for Week 6.....
Still capping, and I've come across a couple more that I think will make damn fine additions to the numbered musings. That will add up to 15 for the week, which I am sure is a record. Generally, I wouldn't suggest betting this many, but I've had a hard time narrowing them down.
14. Texas Tech -7 @Kansas St: A review of Kansas St's defensive stats have revealed a unit completely unable to get out of it's own way. Tons of penalties, blown assignments(which were on display for the whole cuntry to see when Louisville racked up 566 yards on them), poor tackling, you name it. La La also ran on them at will, so they've struggled to stop the run and the pass, equal opportunity trash. A shitfest. Texas Tech is actually runnng it very well this year as well. Rumor has it that the D coordinator is on the hot seat, and doubles as public enemy #1 in the Little Apple, so the boo-birds are expected if they struggle on D..never a good scenario. The roof is going to cave in on them, unless they can rack up about 45 points.
15. @Tennessee -16 v NIU: This line has been dropping due to all the negative press about the QB situation in Knoxville. Whatever. Even with the horrfic play at QB, Tennessee was one play from winning outright at Auburn last week. Now they come home to play NIU, a middle of the road MAC team who has a deceptive big score blowout on the road last week. In that game EMU just abandoned all sanity by getting stopped on downs 6 times. If Tennessee shows up at all, they'll have this covered by halftime. It might get even lower by kickoff, because there is so much dissing of th Vols going on. I think Phil Fullmer is a buffoon, but it certainly isn't as bad as people are making it out to be.
Another thing....I hereby revoke my also ran comments on Kentucky. After some reading and careful reflection, I think Bama is going to roll them. They've already learned their lesson from the Tulane game, they have a bye next week, and Saban, by all accounts, has been verbally abusing them and calling them everything but a white man due to their sloppiness in the second half last week. Kentucky has no skill on offense...this looks like a 30-0 game on second glance. So I DO NOT recomend a play on Kentucky. That's it. Have a good week. Sorry it took 3 emails to get this across.
14. Texas Tech -7 @Kansas St: A review of Kansas St's defensive stats have revealed a unit completely unable to get out of it's own way. Tons of penalties, blown assignments(which were on display for the whole cuntry to see when Louisville racked up 566 yards on them), poor tackling, you name it. La La also ran on them at will, so they've struggled to stop the run and the pass, equal opportunity trash. A shitfest. Texas Tech is actually runnng it very well this year as well. Rumor has it that the D coordinator is on the hot seat, and doubles as public enemy #1 in the Little Apple, so the boo-birds are expected if they struggle on D..never a good scenario. The roof is going to cave in on them, unless they can rack up about 45 points.
15. @Tennessee -16 v NIU: This line has been dropping due to all the negative press about the QB situation in Knoxville. Whatever. Even with the horrfic play at QB, Tennessee was one play from winning outright at Auburn last week. Now they come home to play NIU, a middle of the road MAC team who has a deceptive big score blowout on the road last week. In that game EMU just abandoned all sanity by getting stopped on downs 6 times. If Tennessee shows up at all, they'll have this covered by halftime. It might get even lower by kickoff, because there is so much dissing of th Vols going on. I think Phil Fullmer is a buffoon, but it certainly isn't as bad as people are making it out to be.
Another thing....I hereby revoke my also ran comments on Kentucky. After some reading and careful reflection, I think Bama is going to roll them. They've already learned their lesson from the Tulane game, they have a bye next week, and Saban, by all accounts, has been verbally abusing them and calling them everything but a white man due to their sloppiness in the second half last week. Kentucky has no skill on offense...this looks like a 30-0 game on second glance. So I DO NOT recomend a play on Kentucky. That's it. Have a good week. Sorry it took 3 emails to get this across.
Week 6 Musings
I suppose it's unreasonable of me to expect to win two sizable money line bets on consecutive Thursdays on the same team, but goldang it, Oregon St really shat the bed in the final minutes in that game tonight. We're not talking Cubs offense level shitting of the bed, but it was a sizable dump. In addition, I will quote something I wrote only several hours ago...."I'd be worried about them if I didn't have confidence in Mike Riley, who I think is a solid coach." For the most part he is, but he has joined the ranks of the imbecilic as it relates to the inane practice of going for two before the 4th quarter of a game. First of all, it should not be up to me explain this to college football coaches, but when I have a money line bet riding on it, I implore our nation's college football coaches who obviously need some help in the firing synapse category..."Help me to help you." Oregon St's kicker hacked up his lung on an extra point attempt after OSU's first touchdown, resulting in a 9-3 lead rather than a 10-3 lead. After a quick 17 point run by Utah, the Beavs punched in a TD late in the second quarter. They go for two, naturally don't convert, and they're down 20-15. Later, onthe first drive of the second half, they score again, miss another 2 pointer, and lead 21-20. Finally, with a couple minutes left in the game, they score again, kick the XP, so they're up 28-20. Utah scores, get their own 2 pointer(perfectly fine, since it was late in the 4th quarter), forcing a tie game. What should have happened? If OSU kicks both XPs, assuming they make them, they are up 30-20 when Utah scores, resulting in a 30-27 game. Now, with 1 minute and change, they don't have to throw passes to get downfield,(their drive burned only about 15 seconds) so they can burn clock, leaving Utah much less time to go downfield to kick the GAME TYING FG, not the game winner. Maybe OSU wins in OT, maybe they don't, but their absolute inability to stop anyone in the last 2 minutes would only result in a tie, not a game winning FG. Just keep the damn card in your pocket until the 4th quarter, ok. At least they covered. Memphis would have covered as well if not for a total sleepwalk performance, in which they forgot how to tackle, turned it over three times in the 4th quarter when they had a chance to ice it, and failed to punch in a late TD from the 1, resulting in the FG margin of victory.So that was a push. 1-0-1 to start the week.
As for the Cubs...what can you say. Baseball is funny. Well, it isn't funny. it's excruciating. Teams get cold. Scoring is rocket science for one team, while it's Tiddly Winks for another. At least I have the Dodgers at +425 to win the pennant.
One other thing: There's this guy who calls himself Dr.Bob. He's a tout who uses statistical analysis to make his plays. Over the years, he has been pretty good at it, and the rumor is that a bloodthirsty Japanese ninja organized crime syndicate follows his plays with huge cash plays in Vegas. As a result, when he releases his plays on Thursday afternoon, the lines move, sometimes a lot. Last year, he had a bad year, but that hasn't stopped his minions from moving lines this year. Naturally, virtually every play for the weekend I have had my eye on has seen the line move against me, sometimes by a full 2 points. I cannot explain how frustrating this is. If I had time during the week to get these out earlier, I would, because I'd have additional value on these things. Some of them I did put in, but the lines I list here will be what they are as of late Thurs night. Sometimes some of them might move slightly back, but when this clown(who actually uses solid methods) makes a play, the value is generally lost on that side.
3. Friday BYU -28 1/2 @ Utah St: USU came off the mat to pound Idaho in Logan, UT last week, but now BYU comes to town. With them they bring probably half the crowd that will show up there and a prolific offense. In the two games they played before they handled Idaho they lost by 48 and 42 points, respectively to Utah and Oregon. I would say that BYU is the toughest test for these poor kids at Utah St. to date. BYU can't afford any kind of letdown since they are playing for style points in the polls, so you can expect them to name the score here, and it won't be pretty.
4. Penn St -13 1/2 @Purdue: Again, I despise taking road favorites, but I cannot tell you how impressed I have been with Penn State's offense this year. I don't think that there's any doubt that Joe Pa has the class of the Big Ten this year. They run it on everyone, they have gamenreakers in the passing game, and their quarterback appears to be a definite winner. On defense, they have had some hiccups, but never in any point when the game was seriously in doubt. Illinois actually hung better with them than I figured they would last week, but at no time as an Illini fan did I ever think they were in any position to actually stop Penn St when Penn State cared to not be stopped, if that makes any sense. Purdue is a decent team, but they have been outgained in all their games this year. They had a nice cover in their last foray as a home dog aganst Oregon, but after Kory Sheet's opening 80 yard TD scramble, they did almost nothing on offense. Defensively, hey are coming off a game in which Notre Dame gashed them for 200 yards on the ground. In case you haven't noticed, ND still struggles running the ball. Penn St will not have such troubles. Purdue also has struggled on special teams, having already given up a couple return scores this year, and 3 last year. Penn St, as Illinois can tell you, can do some things in the return game. Penn St probably only needs to avoid turnovers to win this one going away. Road favorites suck, and all that shit, but Penn St is a much, much better team than Purdue. I'm thinking 41-17.
5. Navy +4 1/2 @ Air Force. Here, we obviously have 2 teams that mirror each other...service academies with option attacks that struggle to throw it. Traditionally, I think you can say that Air Force generally has a slightly better collection of skill guys, but I don't think that's the case this year. Now that Kaipo is back under center, the world is round again, things went back to normal and Navy can run it on whomever they want to. Over the past 5 years, Navy has won and covered every time, 4 of the 5 as a dog winning outright. Despite their relative success, I still think AirForce is not anywhere near as good as they have been in recent years on offense. They were extremely lucky to stay on the same field with Utah, as they were outgained by 250+ and only had 190 total yards off offense but still managed to make it a 30-23 game. They also won outright against a Houston team that piled up a 150+ yardage edge. Can Air Froce beat Navy? Sure, I guess, but I don't think they can significantly control the action. Both teams will be able to run it, of course, but I like Navy's run offense better, and Shea Smith, the AF QB can't throw a pass to save his life, while Kaipo can complete a couple if he has to. This is a game that you could have gotten 6 earlier in the week, so that is definitely frustrating, but I think the odds of Navy winning this are about 55/45, so I'll take the 4 1/2.
6. Missouri -10 @Nebraska: There are a lot of handicapping angles you have to just idgnore here. Home team coming off a loss in which they want to make amends for the home crowd, road favorite who might give up some points in the passing game, etc, but I think Nebraska is headed for a beatdown. If there is one thing that Nebraska has proven the past couple of years, it is that they can absolutely not stop a good passing game. Colorado shredded them last year in their last game to the tune of 60+ points, Wstern Michigan piled up 342 in the air in week one, then subsequently scored 7 on Temple last week, and then there's Missouri. In their game last year, they gouged Nebraska for 606 yards in a 41-6 demolition that wasn't even that close. There is a lot of motivation for Mizzou here as well because they have not won in Lincoln more than 30 years, and their fans are salivating at the pospect of a whooping in this game. Missouri is also coming off what they consider a "sloppy" win over Buffalo in which they outgained a pretty good Buffalo squad by 300+. I can't see how Nebraska has any shot of stopping Daniel and company. If Nebraska can score on 75% of their drives, they might be able to keep up, and the jury is still out on Mizzou's defense, especially on the road, but I just see them getting buried under an avalanche of points. Bo Pellini can't just snap his fingers.
7. UCONN +8 @North Carolina: I like to harp on things like yardage edges, first down edges, and other things to somehow quantify how the scrimmaging actually went in a game...this generally will give you an idea on how good a team actually is, and if a team gets outgained in a given week and wins, they probably won't be so lucky the next week. However, when you get outgained 508-279 on the road and still find a way to win, you are definitely doing something right. UConn is the kind of team that I cannot figure out. I've been wrong on them just about every week, but I will not miss a chance to get significant points with them, when they are playing an uneasy favorite that might have some issues stopping the run. It's hard to get jacked up to play a team like UConn, but there they are, at 5-0 again. Last week, their scattershot QB Lorenzen got hurt, so they'll go with the ND transfer Zach Frazer, who many UConn fans are thrilled about. He should actually be an upgrade in the passing game. UNC struggled to stop Miami's run game last week, which Miami inexplicably abandoned, and they caught lighteneing in a bottle with backup Cam Sexton and their enviable group of receivers. I will be a very eager bettor in their favor when they are dogs, but as a favorite against a tem like UConn who is well coached and can lull you to sleep with a good run game, I'll take the 8.
8. @UCLA -17 1/2 v Washington St: WAZZOU kind of reminds me of the Illinois teams of the recent past who got absolutely hammered in every game they played due to lack of talent and confused coaching. It appears that Paul Wulff is overmatched, since he has failed to even come close to competing in any game they've played against a D-1 squad. UCLA is putting things together, starting to get the bearings about them, and I think Neuheisel would like nothing better than to run up the score on someone to prove to his guys that they have reason to be confident. The Cougs have given up 66, 45 and 63 points in their last 3 D-1 games, it has been a bloodbath. It's pretty obvious the players have given up. Any chance to fade WAZZOU on the road when laying 20 or less must be jumped on especially when you have a borderline jackass coach on the other side with no compassion.
9. @Colorado St -1 1/2 v UNLV: Short line due to CSU getting spanked in Berkeley last week, but a closer look indicates that CSU actually outgained Cal, they just have to get their shit together on the punt team, since they gave up TDs on a punt block and a punt return. They gave up an INT return for a score too, so I guess when you have 3 extra possessions, you should probably outgain your opponent. UNLV comes to the high altitude to play catching only a point. They had a nice game against ASU a few weeks ago where they pulled the upset, but they haven't really stopped anyone else, and are coming off a game in which Nevada absolutely torched them in all phases of offense. UNLV is giving up more than 5 a pop on the ground, and CSU has a nice 1-2 punch on the ground. I do not like UNLV's chances in this one to pull off an outright win.
10 Ohio St -1 @Wisconsin: Most of the pundits are on Wisconsin here, and I can understand why, since Ohio St really hasn't been overly impressive in any game they've played yet this year, but they will have chips on their shoulders in this one. Since they've made the switch to Terrelle Pryor at QB, they've kind of transformed themselves into a more dynamic team, and the combination of Pryor and Wells, who I assume will be healthier this week, might be too much for the Badgers. I still don't think that Allen Evridge is the answer for the Badgers at QB, and you can almost take it to the bank that PJ Hill will have some sort of owwie at some juncture. Ohio St has made a habit of coming in and playing well in their big conference road games over the past couple of years, and I think they will play well again in Madison this time, saddling Bret Bielema with his first home loss.
11 Army +20 @Tulane: I actually like Tulane's team quite a bit. Believe it or not, they dominated Alabama in week 2 on the stat sheet if not on the scoreboard, completed obliterated Lou-Mon he next week on the statsheet and won 24-10, then raced out to a huge lead against SMU and held on for a 7 point win. The trend here is that Tulane's dominance for whatever reason does not show up on the scoreboard. Now they get Army, laying 20, with the Knights coming off a trip to College Station where they played an alramingly bad Aggie squad to a standstill. They have moved to a run only offense, which is good because they have been very INT prone in the past. I really have no faith in Tulane's ability to cover a big number based on previous experience, and I think Army might be turning a corner a little bit.
12 @NC State +8 1/2 v Boston College: A lot of times, it's good to fade a road favorite who struggles to score. NC State is really banged up, wth guys missing on defense and at the receiver position. They lost their QB Russell Wilson, who engineered the upset of East Carolina, and were without him against USF last week, and that did not go well. He is back, so they have a fighting chance on offense. BC on the other hand has not been impressive at all on offense, with the QB Chris Crane barely completing 50% of his throws and sporting a 2/5 ratio. If NC State can get things going on offense, I think they can make a game of it, and I'm always in favor of tailing Tom O'Brien.
13. @Virginia + 13 1/2 v Maryland. Here is go again. Virginia is bad, but can it get this bad for them. They outgained Duke last week, but everythingf fell apart for them with turnovers. Somehow, I think they will sack up and play with a Maryland team isn't really all that good. Can Maryland turn in 2 consecutive good performances on the road. Somehow, I don't think so.
Others....Cal is in a bit of disarray, they can't settle on a QB, and RB Jahvid Best is out this week. Aizona St comes in catching 9 1/2. Although I don't trust them on the road, I think they are in a good spot to be pretty competitive this week. FIU is somehow a TD favorite on the road. I know they miraculously pulled the upset at Toledo last week, but there is no way they can come up with two efforts like that in a row. North Texas is getting 6 1/2, on principle, I'll be betting on UNT.....Nevada should kill Idaho. They're laying 24 1/2......Wyoming and New Mexico are pretty much the same team. No passing game, decent running game, ok defenses. Wyoming has failed a little more spectacularly than New Mexico has, so UNM is actually a DD favorite here. That shouldn't be the case, especially since their backup QB, who has been terrible, will be starting for them this week. Wyomng should be able to keep it within the 11....FRIDAY NIGHT>>>> Cincy travels to Marshall, traditionally a tough place to play and they are down totheir third string QB. Marshall is up and down, but they have some balance on offense, and if Cincy turns it over, has a good shot at the outright win. They're catching 3 at home, so I'll bite....I also have a feeling that USC will get pissed and pound Oregon. I am not sold on whatever QB they'll be throwing out there, so I think a blowout is a possibility. The spread sits at 16. That's it for this week. Have a good one.
As for the Cubs...what can you say. Baseball is funny. Well, it isn't funny. it's excruciating. Teams get cold. Scoring is rocket science for one team, while it's Tiddly Winks for another. At least I have the Dodgers at +425 to win the pennant.
One other thing: There's this guy who calls himself Dr.Bob. He's a tout who uses statistical analysis to make his plays. Over the years, he has been pretty good at it, and the rumor is that a bloodthirsty Japanese ninja organized crime syndicate follows his plays with huge cash plays in Vegas. As a result, when he releases his plays on Thursday afternoon, the lines move, sometimes a lot. Last year, he had a bad year, but that hasn't stopped his minions from moving lines this year. Naturally, virtually every play for the weekend I have had my eye on has seen the line move against me, sometimes by a full 2 points. I cannot explain how frustrating this is. If I had time during the week to get these out earlier, I would, because I'd have additional value on these things. Some of them I did put in, but the lines I list here will be what they are as of late Thurs night. Sometimes some of them might move slightly back, but when this clown(who actually uses solid methods) makes a play, the value is generally lost on that side.
3. Friday BYU -28 1/2 @ Utah St: USU came off the mat to pound Idaho in Logan, UT last week, but now BYU comes to town. With them they bring probably half the crowd that will show up there and a prolific offense. In the two games they played before they handled Idaho they lost by 48 and 42 points, respectively to Utah and Oregon. I would say that BYU is the toughest test for these poor kids at Utah St. to date. BYU can't afford any kind of letdown since they are playing for style points in the polls, so you can expect them to name the score here, and it won't be pretty.
4. Penn St -13 1/2 @Purdue: Again, I despise taking road favorites, but I cannot tell you how impressed I have been with Penn State's offense this year. I don't think that there's any doubt that Joe Pa has the class of the Big Ten this year. They run it on everyone, they have gamenreakers in the passing game, and their quarterback appears to be a definite winner. On defense, they have had some hiccups, but never in any point when the game was seriously in doubt. Illinois actually hung better with them than I figured they would last week, but at no time as an Illini fan did I ever think they were in any position to actually stop Penn St when Penn State cared to not be stopped, if that makes any sense. Purdue is a decent team, but they have been outgained in all their games this year. They had a nice cover in their last foray as a home dog aganst Oregon, but after Kory Sheet's opening 80 yard TD scramble, they did almost nothing on offense. Defensively, hey are coming off a game in which Notre Dame gashed them for 200 yards on the ground. In case you haven't noticed, ND still struggles running the ball. Penn St will not have such troubles. Purdue also has struggled on special teams, having already given up a couple return scores this year, and 3 last year. Penn St, as Illinois can tell you, can do some things in the return game. Penn St probably only needs to avoid turnovers to win this one going away. Road favorites suck, and all that shit, but Penn St is a much, much better team than Purdue. I'm thinking 41-17.
5. Navy +4 1/2 @ Air Force. Here, we obviously have 2 teams that mirror each other...service academies with option attacks that struggle to throw it. Traditionally, I think you can say that Air Force generally has a slightly better collection of skill guys, but I don't think that's the case this year. Now that Kaipo is back under center, the world is round again, things went back to normal and Navy can run it on whomever they want to. Over the past 5 years, Navy has won and covered every time, 4 of the 5 as a dog winning outright. Despite their relative success, I still think AirForce is not anywhere near as good as they have been in recent years on offense. They were extremely lucky to stay on the same field with Utah, as they were outgained by 250+ and only had 190 total yards off offense but still managed to make it a 30-23 game. They also won outright against a Houston team that piled up a 150+ yardage edge. Can Air Froce beat Navy? Sure, I guess, but I don't think they can significantly control the action. Both teams will be able to run it, of course, but I like Navy's run offense better, and Shea Smith, the AF QB can't throw a pass to save his life, while Kaipo can complete a couple if he has to. This is a game that you could have gotten 6 earlier in the week, so that is definitely frustrating, but I think the odds of Navy winning this are about 55/45, so I'll take the 4 1/2.
6. Missouri -10 @Nebraska: There are a lot of handicapping angles you have to just idgnore here. Home team coming off a loss in which they want to make amends for the home crowd, road favorite who might give up some points in the passing game, etc, but I think Nebraska is headed for a beatdown. If there is one thing that Nebraska has proven the past couple of years, it is that they can absolutely not stop a good passing game. Colorado shredded them last year in their last game to the tune of 60+ points, Wstern Michigan piled up 342 in the air in week one, then subsequently scored 7 on Temple last week, and then there's Missouri. In their game last year, they gouged Nebraska for 606 yards in a 41-6 demolition that wasn't even that close. There is a lot of motivation for Mizzou here as well because they have not won in Lincoln more than 30 years, and their fans are salivating at the pospect of a whooping in this game. Missouri is also coming off what they consider a "sloppy" win over Buffalo in which they outgained a pretty good Buffalo squad by 300+. I can't see how Nebraska has any shot of stopping Daniel and company. If Nebraska can score on 75% of their drives, they might be able to keep up, and the jury is still out on Mizzou's defense, especially on the road, but I just see them getting buried under an avalanche of points. Bo Pellini can't just snap his fingers.
7. UCONN +8 @North Carolina: I like to harp on things like yardage edges, first down edges, and other things to somehow quantify how the scrimmaging actually went in a game...this generally will give you an idea on how good a team actually is, and if a team gets outgained in a given week and wins, they probably won't be so lucky the next week. However, when you get outgained 508-279 on the road and still find a way to win, you are definitely doing something right. UConn is the kind of team that I cannot figure out. I've been wrong on them just about every week, but I will not miss a chance to get significant points with them, when they are playing an uneasy favorite that might have some issues stopping the run. It's hard to get jacked up to play a team like UConn, but there they are, at 5-0 again. Last week, their scattershot QB Lorenzen got hurt, so they'll go with the ND transfer Zach Frazer, who many UConn fans are thrilled about. He should actually be an upgrade in the passing game. UNC struggled to stop Miami's run game last week, which Miami inexplicably abandoned, and they caught lighteneing in a bottle with backup Cam Sexton and their enviable group of receivers. I will be a very eager bettor in their favor when they are dogs, but as a favorite against a tem like UConn who is well coached and can lull you to sleep with a good run game, I'll take the 8.
8. @UCLA -17 1/2 v Washington St: WAZZOU kind of reminds me of the Illinois teams of the recent past who got absolutely hammered in every game they played due to lack of talent and confused coaching. It appears that Paul Wulff is overmatched, since he has failed to even come close to competing in any game they've played against a D-1 squad. UCLA is putting things together, starting to get the bearings about them, and I think Neuheisel would like nothing better than to run up the score on someone to prove to his guys that they have reason to be confident. The Cougs have given up 66, 45 and 63 points in their last 3 D-1 games, it has been a bloodbath. It's pretty obvious the players have given up. Any chance to fade WAZZOU on the road when laying 20 or less must be jumped on especially when you have a borderline jackass coach on the other side with no compassion.
9. @Colorado St -1 1/2 v UNLV: Short line due to CSU getting spanked in Berkeley last week, but a closer look indicates that CSU actually outgained Cal, they just have to get their shit together on the punt team, since they gave up TDs on a punt block and a punt return. They gave up an INT return for a score too, so I guess when you have 3 extra possessions, you should probably outgain your opponent. UNLV comes to the high altitude to play catching only a point. They had a nice game against ASU a few weeks ago where they pulled the upset, but they haven't really stopped anyone else, and are coming off a game in which Nevada absolutely torched them in all phases of offense. UNLV is giving up more than 5 a pop on the ground, and CSU has a nice 1-2 punch on the ground. I do not like UNLV's chances in this one to pull off an outright win.
10 Ohio St -1 @Wisconsin: Most of the pundits are on Wisconsin here, and I can understand why, since Ohio St really hasn't been overly impressive in any game they've played yet this year, but they will have chips on their shoulders in this one. Since they've made the switch to Terrelle Pryor at QB, they've kind of transformed themselves into a more dynamic team, and the combination of Pryor and Wells, who I assume will be healthier this week, might be too much for the Badgers. I still don't think that Allen Evridge is the answer for the Badgers at QB, and you can almost take it to the bank that PJ Hill will have some sort of owwie at some juncture. Ohio St has made a habit of coming in and playing well in their big conference road games over the past couple of years, and I think they will play well again in Madison this time, saddling Bret Bielema with his first home loss.
11 Army +20 @Tulane: I actually like Tulane's team quite a bit. Believe it or not, they dominated Alabama in week 2 on the stat sheet if not on the scoreboard, completed obliterated Lou-Mon he next week on the statsheet and won 24-10, then raced out to a huge lead against SMU and held on for a 7 point win. The trend here is that Tulane's dominance for whatever reason does not show up on the scoreboard. Now they get Army, laying 20, with the Knights coming off a trip to College Station where they played an alramingly bad Aggie squad to a standstill. They have moved to a run only offense, which is good because they have been very INT prone in the past. I really have no faith in Tulane's ability to cover a big number based on previous experience, and I think Army might be turning a corner a little bit.
12 @NC State +8 1/2 v Boston College: A lot of times, it's good to fade a road favorite who struggles to score. NC State is really banged up, wth guys missing on defense and at the receiver position. They lost their QB Russell Wilson, who engineered the upset of East Carolina, and were without him against USF last week, and that did not go well. He is back, so they have a fighting chance on offense. BC on the other hand has not been impressive at all on offense, with the QB Chris Crane barely completing 50% of his throws and sporting a 2/5 ratio. If NC State can get things going on offense, I think they can make a game of it, and I'm always in favor of tailing Tom O'Brien.
13. @Virginia + 13 1/2 v Maryland. Here is go again. Virginia is bad, but can it get this bad for them. They outgained Duke last week, but everythingf fell apart for them with turnovers. Somehow, I think they will sack up and play with a Maryland team isn't really all that good. Can Maryland turn in 2 consecutive good performances on the road. Somehow, I don't think so.
Others....Cal is in a bit of disarray, they can't settle on a QB, and RB Jahvid Best is out this week. Aizona St comes in catching 9 1/2. Although I don't trust them on the road, I think they are in a good spot to be pretty competitive this week. FIU is somehow a TD favorite on the road. I know they miraculously pulled the upset at Toledo last week, but there is no way they can come up with two efforts like that in a row. North Texas is getting 6 1/2, on principle, I'll be betting on UNT.....Nevada should kill Idaho. They're laying 24 1/2......Wyoming and New Mexico are pretty much the same team. No passing game, decent running game, ok defenses. Wyoming has failed a little more spectacularly than New Mexico has, so UNM is actually a DD favorite here. That shouldn't be the case, especially since their backup QB, who has been terrible, will be starting for them this week. Wyomng should be able to keep it within the 11....FRIDAY NIGHT>>>> Cincy travels to Marshall, traditionally a tough place to play and they are down totheir third string QB. Marshall is up and down, but they have some balance on offense, and if Cincy turns it over, has a good shot at the outright win. They're catching 3 at home, so I'll bite....I also have a feeling that USC will get pissed and pound Oregon. I am not sold on whatever QB they'll be throwing out there, so I think a blowout is a possibility. The spread sits at 16. That's it for this week. Have a good one.
Week 6 Musings (Weekday)
Not going to get into last week at this point, since I have to get the heel out of here quickly, but I wanted to share with you some thoughts about the Thusday night games. Will obviously have the full complement at some point tomorrow.
1. Memphis -3 @UAB: UAB came through for us last week, one of the very very very few teams that I was on that didn't completely forget how to play football in the second half. (By the way, Tommy Bowden and the rest of that quivering band of wimps down in Clemson can go have relations with themselves for the rest of the year. Even if it's the most obvious game on the card, I am avoiding Clemson.When a pack of fags like Maryland come onto your turf and play the role of the local toughs, it's time to to look yourself in the mirror and come to grips with your femininity. And it's time for any of your potential backers to smash themselves over the skull with a hammer to knock out any thoughts of laying any more hard earned dollars your team). Anyway....back to UAB. They flopped around enough in Columbia to come within 27 of a weak offense...good for them. Now, in order to cover the number this week, they actually have to probably win the game outright, something they haven't done much of. Florida Atlantic, for example, is 1-4(granted, against very tough competition) and their only win was a laugher against UAB. UAB has played some very difficult competition, including the best passing offenses in the country in Tulsa, but they rank 118th in the country against the pass. Memphis comes in ranked 9th in passing offense. Memphis comes in only 2-3, but they have outgained all of their opponents, including Marshall on the road, and Arkansas St last week by more than 100 yards. They've lost some close one, mostly because of an nability to turn good drives into points, as they rank 14th in total offense, but only 62nd in scoring offense. UAB is bad enough on defense that they should be able to punch some more scores in this week. UAB might hang for awhile since they are at home and the competition level has come down a notch, but it hasn't come down to their level. Memphis should have no problem moving it at will on them. I see about a 38-21 game here.
2. Oregon St +11 1/2 @Utah: I'm afraid this might be a square play, since Oregon St is obviously coming off a huge win over USC, but I really think the Oregon St we saw last Thursday is a better indication of the Beaver squad we'll see the rest of the year than we saw when they got their collective skulls caved in in Happy Valley in week 2. I would be worried about them if I didn't have confidence in Mike Riley, who I think is a solid coach. Traditionally, OSU starts slow and then gets their stride throughout the rest of the year.They also have shown an abiliy to move the ball both through the air and on the ground, and really dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against SC. Looking at Utah's schedule, this is one of the few games on their schedule that they could possibly slip up on, and I really don't think they are good enough to go through the year undefeated. They are solid in all phases, and have dominated the Utah St's and UNLVs of the world, but I just don't see them as an elite squad. In my opinion, this is a close matchup in talent. Situationally, there is some risk with Oregon St, but they have had a full week to prepare compared to only 4 days for Utah, who played a cupcake last Saturday. With that many points, I'll take my chances, since I think OSU has a reasonable chance to win the game outright.
No real opinion on the ESPN game...a lean toward South Florida since I think Pitt's D might collapse badly on the road, but 14 is a lot of points, and I'm tired of sweating out these significant favorites. I'll be back in the near future with more misguided crap.
1. Memphis -3 @UAB: UAB came through for us last week, one of the very very very few teams that I was on that didn't completely forget how to play football in the second half. (By the way, Tommy Bowden and the rest of that quivering band of wimps down in Clemson can go have relations with themselves for the rest of the year. Even if it's the most obvious game on the card, I am avoiding Clemson.When a pack of fags like Maryland come onto your turf and play the role of the local toughs, it's time to to look yourself in the mirror and come to grips with your femininity. And it's time for any of your potential backers to smash themselves over the skull with a hammer to knock out any thoughts of laying any more hard earned dollars your team). Anyway....back to UAB. They flopped around enough in Columbia to come within 27 of a weak offense...good for them. Now, in order to cover the number this week, they actually have to probably win the game outright, something they haven't done much of. Florida Atlantic, for example, is 1-4(granted, against very tough competition) and their only win was a laugher against UAB. UAB has played some very difficult competition, including the best passing offenses in the country in Tulsa, but they rank 118th in the country against the pass. Memphis comes in ranked 9th in passing offense. Memphis comes in only 2-3, but they have outgained all of their opponents, including Marshall on the road, and Arkansas St last week by more than 100 yards. They've lost some close one, mostly because of an nability to turn good drives into points, as they rank 14th in total offense, but only 62nd in scoring offense. UAB is bad enough on defense that they should be able to punch some more scores in this week. UAB might hang for awhile since they are at home and the competition level has come down a notch, but it hasn't come down to their level. Memphis should have no problem moving it at will on them. I see about a 38-21 game here.
2. Oregon St +11 1/2 @Utah: I'm afraid this might be a square play, since Oregon St is obviously coming off a huge win over USC, but I really think the Oregon St we saw last Thursday is a better indication of the Beaver squad we'll see the rest of the year than we saw when they got their collective skulls caved in in Happy Valley in week 2. I would be worried about them if I didn't have confidence in Mike Riley, who I think is a solid coach. Traditionally, OSU starts slow and then gets their stride throughout the rest of the year.They also have shown an abiliy to move the ball both through the air and on the ground, and really dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against SC. Looking at Utah's schedule, this is one of the few games on their schedule that they could possibly slip up on, and I really don't think they are good enough to go through the year undefeated. They are solid in all phases, and have dominated the Utah St's and UNLVs of the world, but I just don't see them as an elite squad. In my opinion, this is a close matchup in talent. Situationally, there is some risk with Oregon St, but they have had a full week to prepare compared to only 4 days for Utah, who played a cupcake last Saturday. With that many points, I'll take my chances, since I think OSU has a reasonable chance to win the game outright.
No real opinion on the ESPN game...a lean toward South Florida since I think Pitt's D might collapse badly on the road, but 14 is a lot of points, and I'm tired of sweating out these significant favorites. I'll be back in the near future with more misguided crap.
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