Week 9 MUsings

Last week was pretty good, 7-4 overall. I went with almost exclusively dogs. I'm more comfortable with dogs generally, and there is no doubt that games are much more fun to watch when you're on the dog. If I someday get famous, and someone does a profile on me and asks for a pet peeve, my response will certainly be "Conjuring up ways the chump favorite I'm on can cover a 14 1/2 point spread when they're trailing by 3 with 7 minutes left in the game." We might have had a shot at a better week if Memphis didn't lose the starting QB, backup QB and top receiver all in the first 8 minutes of the game. They actually led 10-0 early and 10-7 into the 3rd quarter, but 5 straight 3 and outs in the second half without their guys led to the defense getting worn down. Oh well, it happens. I've yet to see a team I bet against have that happen to them, but I'm sure it happens. It does, doesn't it?

In other news, the BCS standings came out, which has triggered the most uninteresting topic on the face of the Earth to be shoved down our throats again, namely, the BCS, and the lack of a playoff system. One thing I really hope happens this year is a departure from the assumption that if a team is ranked in one position in one week, that they are predestined to stay there unless they lose. In the final week of the BCS voting, pollsters vote teams 1-2 based on who they think should be playing in the MNC game. So I don't want to hear some boneheaded coach complain that team A shouldn't leapfrog them in the final week. Like when Michigan was ranked ahead of Florida in early December in '06, then got leapfrogged in the final poll because everyone knew that a Michigan/OSU rematch was pointless.Since he was an ignoramus, Lloyd Carr cried about it. Hopefully we won't have any doofus coaches miss that point this year, because I'd hate to have to educate them.

In case anyone missed it, Washington St cemented themselves as the worst BCS conference team by a mile by continuing their shockingly horrific season by losing 69-0 to USC. Even though the score is quite remarkable in it's own right, it does not really do any justice on how one sided this was. There once was a day when teams feared venturing out to the Pallouse, but I can assure you that this is no longer the case. Consider: This was the 4th time WSU has given up 60+. and the third time at home. In this game, they were outgained in the first half 481 -17, and were outgained 625-118 for the game. Mark Sanchez had 5 TDs in the first half. They were out First Downed 28-4. Not only did they not score, they never even passed midfield. That's right, they never MADE IT PAST MIDFIELD. The cleanup job after a village idiot is a large one, for sure, but c'mon...this is pretty ridiculous. Paul Wulff needs to step it up a bit. Granted, USC is rough and so are some of the other teams in the Pac 10, but Baylor was guffawing it up against them by midway through the 3rd quarter. When Baylor is toying around with you....ouch babe.

Also....Dear Tommy Tuberville. Here's how your second half went tonight. You know, that period of time in which you implement adjustments so that your team can win. Receive kickoff-punt. WV kicks FG. Kickoff-punt. WV scores touchdown. Kickoff-punt. WV scores TD. Kickoff punt-WV scores TD. Game over. 31 unanswered points by a team led by a borderline retard. Nice work. You just got completely outcoached by Bill Stewart. You were up by 14 on him, and then he mentally bitch slapped you. BILL STEWART!!! It's over Tommy. Cue up the music. SOOOOOOOOYYYY UN PANTADOR......I'M A LOSER BAAAAAABYYYYYY SO WHY DON'T YOU KILL MEEEEEE????

On to the week:

1. Oklahoma -17 1/2 @Kansas St: Don't be fooled by Kansas St's passable defensive performance against Colorado. The 'Cats actually had a decent defensive game in Boulder for them, holding Colorado to 14 points and 353 yards. This indicates more about Colorado's offensive futility(which I frankly am having a hard time figuring out) than it does about any defensive prowess on the part of K St. Let me be clear: They cannot stop a soul on defense, and that will be exposed in bright neon for all to see this week. Oklahoma is kind of in a difficult spot as it relates to their MNC chances, i.e., they're completely screwed. Texas has to lose twice for them to have a chance at the B12 title game, and now that the 'Horns took care of Missouri last week, that appears less than likely. In the meantime, Oklahoma will have to keep itself busy by blasting people for the rest of the year. K St will offer no challenge to Sam Bradford and what is probably the most complete offense in America. The Sooners will be able to score at will...don't expect to see their punter unless they are looking for reasons for him to work on his game. We might see 60+ from the Sooners this week.

2. @Florida St -5 v Virginia Tech: As we all know, Virginia Tech's offense is not good, be it with Sean Glennon or Tyrod Taylor. Last week, they remained in the game at BC because they got 2 INT returns for scores. This week, they're on the road again in Tallahassee, and they have to face probably the best defense they have seen all year. While VT has been outgained by it's opponents by 27 ypg this year, FSU is doing the opposite, outgaining it's opponents by 167. Christian Ponder actually looked pretty good last week against NC St, and the FSU running game has been effective. I really think that VT's only chance to keep this close is if they have a repeat of last week, and Ponder does his best Kirby Freeman/Marcus Stone/Jordan Steffy/Jarrod Bryant impression.. It's possible, but not likely.

3. Virginia +14 @Georgia Tech: I don't thin I've ever seen a team turn things around as much as this Virginia team has. They went from being complete cannon fodder in the non-conference to being a legit bowl contender, and they're on a roll. They've beaten 3 solid squads in a row after their nice comeback victory over UNC last week, and now face Ga Tech on the road. It's true that their success has come at home the past 3 weeks, but there are other reasons for their success, namely, their defense getting healthy, and an effective change at QB. They've also found their running game, so I think the improvement is real. Ga Tech is certainly a solid squad as well, and normally a favorite of the musings, but not as a significant DD favorite, even at home. If you watched their game with Clemson last week, you'll notice that they struggled mightily on offense, punting 9 times and only recording 12 first downs. They did what they had to to win, which is probably what they'll do this week as well. Even at Navy, Paul Johnson was not good as a large favorite. To be honest, this looks to me to be another game in which the likelihood of the dog winning might be better than that of the favorite covering, unless there's a late pick 6 or something.

4. @Kansas -1 v Texas Tech: Every year, Texas Tech has a "what in the hell was that" type game, in which their offense never gets on track and they lay an egg defensively. They walk into Lawrence facing a KU team with a lot to play for, and a lot to be jacked up about. TT remains undefeated, but there has been something lacking about them that I can't quite put my finger on. They've looked disappointing in victory two weeks in a row, and now they have a home game with Texas on deck. If they don't bring their A game, they'll lose, and it might be a thrashing. KU can move the ball on anyone. They've struggled on defense, which is never good when the Red Raiders come to town, but I really think this is the week that Tech takes their loss.

5 UCLA +17 1/2 @California: People need to realize that UCLA is and will be one of the best coached teams in the country as long as the Neuheisel/Chow combo is there. They continue to catch big points, especially on the road, due to the disaster they experienced in Provo in week 2 or 3 or whatever it was. They were catching 20+ at Oregon and came close to an outright victory. The were catching points at home against a solid Stanford team and beat them. Now they are getting 3 scores against a Cal team, that although explosive, has not really exploded on anyone lately. I won't argue that Cal is potentially a much better team than UCLA at this juncture, but the Bruins are rolling pretty good, and really shouldn't be the recipient of this many points.

6. Nc State +12 @Maryland: As I mentioned last week, NC State is a betable team as long as Russell Wilson is healthy. He is, so we can proceed to capping their game. Last week, Maryland played what many would consider a perfect game against Wake. It's true..they dominated a good Wake Forest team in every phase, piling up a ton of yards in the process. As we know, however, this Maryland team is a Jeckyl and Hyde squad. Not so much at home so far this year, but give them time. Even though they played almost perfectly, they still only punched in 2 touchdowns, settling for field goals 4 times. That's not a formula for covering a double digit spread. NC State isn't great, but they have enough playmakers to keep the game close, and Maryland lost their best cornerback in their game last week.

7. SMU +12 1/2 @Navy: I case anyone hasn't been noticing, SMU has been coming on in recent weeks, which was somewhat predictable given June Jones's previous history. They have lost 6 in a row, but have played very good competition, including two explosive offenses in Tulsa and Houston the past two weeks, and were a whisker away from winning both games. Offensively, they are playing well, despite Bo Levi Mitchell's addiction to throwing the ball to the other team. Navy on the other hand, has led a charmed life this year, benefiting from tons of defensive ans ST TDs, and when they've lost, they've proven to be inferior to the competition. This is especially true when Navy's worst option QB in the history of the Academy, Jarrod Bryant, is under center. He appears to be the man again this week, as Kaipo is still having issues with his hamstring. You'll recall last year that Navy had a similar game with North Texas, and it went down to the wire. SMU will certainly put up points in this game. If Bryant turns the ball over, SMU might have a shot at the outright win.

8. Alabama -5 @Tennessee: Obviously, the Tide has not screwed around when it comes to their big games this year. It's debateable whether or not a game with Tennessee is actually a big game anymore, since they've slipped farther and farther back in the national scene as Phil Fullmer continues to be employed. However, Bama fans still have this game circled on their calendar due to the bad blood that exists between the two schools. Bama feels they were railroaded by Fullmer and Tennessee in a squeal job to the NCAA that Bama claims no guilt toward. There will be motivation from the Bama side, as well as an obvious distinct coaching advantage. Tennessee has some issues on both lines, and although their star D lineman has been injured, Bama has plenty to plug in. No offense on UT...I think Bama lays the wood here.

9. @LSU -1 v Georgia: I know everyone loves Mark Richt on the road, and Mark surely deserves kudos for winning so many road games over the past several years, but I think he's in a tough spot here. Georgia, as has been documented, is starting almost exclusively fresh and soph offensive linemen. That's probably bad news against this LSU front 7. In addition, Georgia's defense has not been a wrecking ball, having leaked like a sieve against Bama. Lee or Hatch might have a fighting chance in this one. Based on Georgia's line issues, and the perception that there has been something awry pretty much all year for Georgia, I'm going to put some stock in the home team here.

10. MTSU+10 1/2 @ Mississippi St: If I'm a Mississippi St fan, I am deathly afraid that my team loses this game. MTSU has hung with all of the FBS teams they have played thus far, and won against Maryland. Miss St of course, "struggles" on offense, which normally doesn't bode well for DD favorites. MTSU could possibly win this outright.... it certainly wouldn't be a shock. There's enough talent among the Blue Raiders to hang within 10.

11. @Tulsa -23 v Central Florida: (SUNDAY)Big spread here, but Tulsa has been absolutely devastating at home, having beaten Rice by 35, New Mexico by 42 and UTEP by 42 last week. These are not complete pushovers either, as all 3 have had good performances this year, including UTEP's 58-13 demolition of Central Florida the last time they ventured out to the West. Tulsa has the best offense in the country.There can be almost no argument about that. They average more than 100 yds per game more than the likes of Missouri, Oklahoma State, Illinois for example, and average almost a full yard per play more than the #2 offense in the country, Texas Tech. Central Florida, might have the must putrid offense in the country, and upon further investigation, indeed they do, as they rank 120th in total offense. I don't care how good UCF thinks it's defense is, they will get torched, and they'll probably struggle to put up more than about 17. That won't cut it.

12. @Arkansas +6 1/2 v Ole MIss: I am generally very loyal to statistical analysis. Those who dismiss stats as not noteworthy are dullard neanderthals. In this case, though, I think we need to put our situational handicapping hats on. Most of the world is on Ole MIss here, and I understand why, because they have statistically stood up to very tough competition, i.e. Florida and Bama. However, when it comes to taking care of business as a favorite, they haven't done it, losing at home to Vandy and South Carolina. Arkansas is playing a lot better lately and should have beaten Kentucky on the road last week if not for 2 late TDs from the Wildcats. Now, after a very tough game with Bama in which they left disappointed, they have to turn around and go on the road again and are expected to handle an improving team with a good coaching staff. If we see Arkansas morph back into the turnover spewing abomination they were earlier in the year, they're screwed, but if not, they have a great shot. Keep in mind that these are two 3-4 teams, too, as much as we all like Ole Miss.


Others....Fresno is a big favorite against Utah St (-16). Their defense has been very poor this year, and Utah St has shown signs of hanging in at home..actually playing competitively. If Fresno is disinterested, they can absolutely find themselves in a dogfight....Cincinnati has their original 2nd string QB(Tony Pike) back this week, and he had very good success earlier in the year before injury. They are slight favorites(-2) on the road against UConn, who is probably going to be without their QB Frazer, so they are down to several guys who have not taken a snap. Cincy stops the run, so UConn might find themselves in a bit of a pickle.....The Illini should be able to handle Wisconsin...I won't jinx them any further by elaborating......BG looked terrible last week, and now they travel to play NIU in DeKalb, where they have had great success in the past. In another situational situation(!!)I can see them covering the 8....TONIGHT...I am not sold on Boise's offense. They are laying 7 at San Jose St tonight, and SJSU's defense is ranked in the top 12 nationally. Boise's freshman QB and overrated RB Johnson might struggle, much like they did for the most part at home against a weak Hawaii defense last week......It's not a musing due to the large spread, but Florida is a 24 1/2 point favorite at home against Kentucky. Don't expect Urban Meyer to take his foot off the gas since they are in "impress the voters" mode. Kentucky, already hellaciously bad on offense, had a couple more injuries last week, so they are even more hamstrung than usual. Now they're hurt on defense as well, as two more linebackers aren't going to play. I've heard that Rich Brooks is sitting out a couple other guys so they can rest up for later games in an attmpt to punt this game and win later. This could get very ugly very quickly. It's not a musing because of the size of the line in the SEC, and because Florida has Georgia on deck, but it almost was one anyway......Minnesota is a 2 point favorite on the road at Purdue. I am not sold on any favorite that cannot stop a soul in the passing game. They have survived on luck and dirty tricks on D so far. If Purdue shows up with their offense clicking, Minnesota will be giving up yards in boulder sized chunks. If they struggle at all on offense in that scenario, they won't win....I like both Michigan and Penn State this week in the Big Ten because they are playing teams that are too one dimensional. For example, Ohio St's only chance in their game is if they absolutely dominate Penn St on the ground. I don't think that's going to happen. ......If Arizona gets up to +17 or so, I'll also be biting, since they have been very good at home, and USC is due to get full of themselves again. Actually, who am I kidding? I'll be on them at the current 15 as well. .....That's it or this week. Hope everyone does well.........