Week 7 Musings

Sorry these are late....did not notice that they did not get posted until now.


Looking back on last week's musings, I noticed that I failed to mention the results of week 5, which were a continuation of week 4, which is to say, a train wreck. However, the train got back on the tracks in week 6 to the tune of 11-3-1. That brings the musings total to 32-24-5 on the year, which comes out to just over 57%, which is the amended, socialist government style "let's make it easier for little Johnny, everyone deserves a trophy" goal.

I've found that the Cubs flame out gag job in round one did not bother me all that much. In a way, this kid of bothers me. If I don't care so much if they lose, I guess I won't be as giddy if they happen to win. Another sign of getting old, I guess. My advice to Jim Hendry, although others might be catching on: Find yourself a first baseman. Slappy Lee is just not going to cut it anymore. We all know he's a nice guy, complete with "veteran presence" and "proven leadership", and that he "plays the game the right way". However, two years running of "chopping into routine double plays" and "hitting warning track flyballs" are getting old. .290 hitters with 20 homers and 90 RBI at first base are a dime a dozen, and there are 20 guys in the majors at first right now who can equal or beat that production at half the salary Lee makes. Seriously, by the end of the year, the at bats were just a matter of where the sharp grounder would end up. If he found a hole for his inevitable worm burner, great. If not, you better hope there's nobody on first. The Cubs biggest weakness is the fact that their #3 hitter was not appreciable better than their #7 and sometimes #8 hitter. Granted, that's more a testament to the depth of their batting order, but still....you need a difference maker in the 3 hole, not a groundball machine who regurgitates appropriate soundbites with aplomb. They're set in the rotation, probably even whether they re-sign Dempster or not. They just need to upgrade at first, that's about it. Oh yeah, and they need to teach Soriano how to play baseball. Other than that, they're in good shape.

I held off on the weeknight games this week. I actually liked Clemson getting 2 1/2 during the week, but I don't bet on bags of faggots, so I played only 1/2 unit to make it interesting. Then the line started moving in hyper speed the other way, actually reaching Clemson -2 right at kickoff, so I dropped everything and played a middle, meaning a 1 or 2 point game either way would pay me twice. Almost happened too, but Clemson predictably screeched like a bunch of teenage girls and ran effeminately back to the locker room with a 5 point loss when they had a chance to win with a heroic TD drive. Alas, it was not to be, so I am now $2 poorer. On to this week.

1. Michigan St pk @Northwestern: If the 'Cats were catching some points here, say 4 or more, I bet they would cover, and probably win outright. But as a slight favorite, or a pick, or even as a 1 point dog, I don't see them coming through. Michigan St is the real deal. They rely on Ringer more than they need to in my opinion, i.e. 47 carries in a game with FAU, but they are well coached and play with a purpose. NU has been a nice surprise as well, but now they are getting some pub...the timing is such that we are reaching the time where everyone feels great about this, Chicago starts to take notice of such a phenomenon as college football, then they get beat and everyone goes back to their obsession with pro sports. Actually, the 'Cats have not played all that well. You can look at it two ways: they are either lucky, or the rest of the B10 better look out because they haven't even hot their stride yet. This year they have beaten Syracuse, (no great feat considering the Orange are dealing only in moral victories these days), Ohio,(by 8 at home), Duke(in a game they were outgained in by 144 yards)SIU(FCS school) and Iowa(Their fans look like a bunch of giant bumblebees with beards...and the men are even fatter and uglier). In the past, CJ Bacher and company have racked up yards and TDs like a bunch of maniacs, but this year, they've hit a rough patch, averaging only 5 .5 YPP. Bacher's INTs match his TDs. If they want to win this one, I think they'll need to put up probably 34 points, and they have fallen far short of that against much weaker competition. Maybe they'll break out and hang 48 on MSU like they did last year in East Lansing, but this team just looks a little weaker to me.

2. @Indiana +5 1/2 V Iowa: This is a risky pick, since IU has jumped out to an 0-2 start and has dropped 3 straight, but Iowa has done the same. Iowa continues to struggle throwing the ball, and can't settle on a QB. They have remained competitive because of their ability to run the ball well, and by playing passable defense. Indiana is a joke on the road, but they generally play well at home, with the biggest difference coming on defense. In all cases, this year they have stopped the run well, giving up only 3.1 per carry against a decent array of backs including Ringer for MSU and Lewis from Ball St. They also have shown a penchant for busting off big plays, something that Iowa never does. I see IU having a great shot at getting their first W in the league, and Iowa should certainly not be favored on the road against a team that is entirely capable of outscoring them.

3. @Virginia +6 v East Carolina: UVA had no problem handling Maryland last week. that they covered was not surprising, since it was called for in the musings, but that they completely shellacked Maryland WAS a surprise. This is because the 'Hoos have spent the better part of this year playing the part of Popeye in his pre-spinach encounters with Bluto. However, their new QB made himself comfortable at home, and Al Groh continues to cover like clockwork as a home dog. ECU has clearly never been comfortable in the favorite's role, and they have not been the sa,e since they lost their unquestioned defensive leader LB Quentin Cotton in week 3. Now they have to replace their top WR Jamar Bryant, who was suspended this week. Virginia looks to have found it's running game, and the defense handled a similar offense easily last week. They should keep this one close unless they turn it over like a bunch of wildmen.

4. Arkansas +18 @ Auburn: What a complete assface Tommy Tuberville is. A gutless, backstabbing dickhead. He's getting heat, logically for his team's complete inability to score or even move the ball at all over the past several weeks. So what does he do? He looks for a scapegoat, and who is more convenient than the miscreant that he himself brought in only 10 months ago to revamp an offense that sucked before the other guy got here. So he appeases the bloodthristy hordes by tossing Tony Franklin to them as a sacrifice and goes about his business. Stand by your assistants, a la Jerry Burns circa 1990 or whatever? Nooooo. "I'm not looking so good right now, so someone needs to be identified as the problem, and it sure the hell isn't going to be me. See ya, Tim, or Tom or Tony or whatever your name is...." Regardless of who they rely on to call plays, their offense is borderline putrid, ranking 104th in the country in total offense. I hate to keep touting Arkansas, but they continue to be much better than they have shown. They played with Florida for 50 minutes until a couple long runs killed them at the end of the game. If they can avoid turnovers, I jus can't see Auburn putting anything together in the way of a concept on offense. Lots of points for a team that doesn't score much.

5. Ball St -16 1/2 @ Western Kentucky: I can't really figure this one out. Ball St has established themselves as one of the best offensive teams around, but this year, they have commenced beat downs on people because of their defense. They were able to stop Navy's option(granted,the Jarrod Bryant version is no great shakes, but still...) IU's spread, and last week, they held Toledo to less than 200 in total offense. Keep in mind that Toledo racked up 600+ in their game with Fresno St, so shutting them down is a tough exercise. We all know that BSU has a good offense. The combination of good play on both sides of the ball will lead to major issues for WKU.

6. @Kentucky +2 v South Carolina: South Carolina is way too inconsistent to put together 2 solid outings on the road in my opinion. They went into Oxford MIssissippi and pulled off the win last week. Now they travel to Lexington to face a defense that hasn't given up a thing this year. Both defenses are good, but the offenses are not. South Carolina might have a little more firepower, but I think the solid D and home crowd will jack up the 'Cats. Remember that they only gave up 7 points last week, since one of Bama's TDs was a return.

7. @BYU -23 v New Mexico: BYU heard some criticism(from me) last week for their sluggish performance against Utah St. They admited to basically turning on the cruise control and turning the second half into a collective power nap. Bronco Mendenhall is a solid guy, it's almost certain that he lit up his team for that perforrmace. Now New Mexico comes to town with it's new QB, Brad Gruber, who has demonstrated that he cannot throw a forward pass.Their MO is to run it, but unfortunately for them, BYU stops the run very well. New Mexico is ranked 104th against the pass, BYU is known to chuck it successfully. Bad matchup for the Lobos. They'll be looking for style points for sure.

8. Tulane +4 @UTEP: This is an inflated line because UTEP has notched 2 wins in a row and because the Green Wave lost big to Army last week. Both results are misleading, as UTEP won a game last week in which it's opponent(Southern Miss) did not punt once. Tulane has racked up some very impressive yardage numbers on everyone they've played, so I really expect them to do the same here, since UTEP struggles a lot on defense. Remember, this is a team that dominated Alabama on the stat sheet earlier this year. I think they have a nice shot at the outright win.

9. @Missouri -14(-13.5 at Sportsbetting) v Oklahoma St: Lots and lots and lots of people are calling fr a lookahead situation, trap game, etc here for MIssouri. I just don't see it. It's a national TV game at night, so Mizzou should be rolling. Oklahoma St has been prolific on offense this year, but they have yet to play anyone.People were impressed with a big win over A&M last week, but they had 3 non-offensive TDs and got outgained for the game. Missouri, as we know, cannot be stopped( zero 3 and outs this year), and certainly can't be stopped by a weak outfit like OSU, who traditionally shits the bed defensively on the road. On the other hand, I think Mizzou can handle Ok St. They have done a nice job thus far this year against the run, ranking 14th in the nation at 2.68 per carry, and running the ball is OSU's forte. Don't forget that Mizzou has faced some dynamic rushing offenses, including Illinois, Nevada and Buffalo, so they haven't fattened up on cupcakes in that regard.It appears that Mizzou has overcome the unpleasantness of their poor pass defense performance against Illinois,as they have not struggled significantly against anyone else against the pass, including Nebraska, who scored only 17 on them in Lincoln. Okie St is going to have to put up 42 in my opinion to cover, and I don't see that happening.

10. @Texas Tech -20 1/2 v Nebraska: The Huskers do not have any good players on their defense, as Missouri demonstrated in Lincoln last week. Now the Huskers, fresh off back to back losses, goes to Lubbock this week to deal with our friend Mike Leach. Tech has improved pretty dramatically on defense, so it's possible that Nebraska might see a similar output to what they did last week, which wasn't much. This looks like a 49-20 game to me, maybe worse.

11. @Central Michigan -7 v Temple: Temple actually won outright for me last week, the second week in a row they were badly outgained only to come up with a cover. CMU always starts out slow, and then hits their stride about this time. Temple has been good defensively, but it doesn't matter what MAC team shows up to play CMU, the Chips will probably score some points. Also, they are still without their QB, so a freshman is playing in his first true road game. 7 is a short number in my opinion.

Others: Colorado St is getting 15 1/2 at home against TCU. The Frogs are the nation's #1 defensive team, but they don't score much without their starting QB, who might be out. CSU has proven they can run and pass...I think that will be a close one....Fresno St has a tendency to fold up the tent after a big disappointment, and Hawaii's victory over them last week fits the bill. Now Idaho is catching 34. Idaho is awful outside, but sometimes competitive in that goofy dome they play in. Fresno has lost outright as a double digit favorite 5 times in the last 3 years, so if they dropped this one, it wouldn't be a huge surprise...34 should definitely be do-able. I like OU to handle Texas in the RRS, and I think LSU should be played,with the 6 points. That's too much for LSU, even if Les Miles poops in his pants....a hunch tells me UCLA stays within 19 against Oregon, despite their putrid offnse and recent track record on the road....I also like Utah St to stay within 2 TD's at San Jose St, since this looks like a classic "teams in opposite directions" game. Utah St looks confident due to their abilit to play with BYU most of the game last Thursday. We'll see what happens. Good luck to all!