Week 10 Musings

Another nice week last week. 8-4 for the numbered musings, certainly nothing to scoff at, and I caught a ton of breaks en route to an extremely profitable Saturday. I'd say the likelihood of a cooling off period is pretty substantial, since the last 4 weeks have garnered a 33-16 mark(better than 67%). I'm sure I don't need to elaborate on a percentage like that. Let's just say it's unlikely to continue. I like this week's card, though, so who knows?

The World Series is now over, and not a moment too soon. Philadelphia has commenced defacing property under the guise of "celebrating" a rare departure from their usual din of futility. The World Series also reminded me why Bug(not a typo) Selig will pretty much retire as champion of my list of People I Would Love to Punch in the Face. K Fed used to dominate this list, but he's been so quiet lately that he's actually fallen off the list completely. Actually, that might be a testament to how utterly screwed up Britney Spears is. She has actually made K Fed look like a responsible adult compared to the dumpster fire that is Britney's existence(or has been). Bug reminded us all of his complete faggotry this week during his mismanagement of the game 5 fiasco. He lied about having consulted weather people and the Phillies head groundskeeper before the game was started. He was so arrogant that he never even thought it important enough to make anyone aware of his intentions as it pertained to the outcome of the game vis a vis the weather, if he even thought far enough ahead to plan for it. None of the players knew what the overall plans were, neither did the managers. He wanted to get the game in so the Fox jagoffs wouldn't get bent out of shape, and he almost blew it in the process. Anyway, if anyone is curious, here is my current list of People I would Love to Punch in the Face: Please feel free to add your own.

1. Bug Selig. (And I would hope that he dies.)

2. Keith Olbermann (A World Class, grade A egomanaical dickhead, even during his ESPN days.)

3. Nancy Pelosi** (For thousands of reasons, but most recently for her devoid of fact, morally and logically bankrupt speech just prior to the bailout vote)

4. Rosie O'Donnell

5. Skip Bayless/Tommy Tuberville(tie)

**I would actually never punch a woman, so Pelosi's inclusion on this list is only figurative.

Again, feel free to add some names to this list, or to come up with your own. It's fun!

On to this week.......

1. @Texas A&M -3 1/2 v Colorado: Over the past 3 weeks or so, A&M has made some very promising strides. Not necessarily on defense, but on offense. QB Jarrod Johnson completed 31-38 for almost 400 yards last week in their road victory over Iowa St. It seems as though the team is picking up on Mike Sherman's offensive scheme. On the flip side, Colorado has established itself as one of worst offensive squads in a BCS conference, officially qualifying as a completely putrid offense. Dan Hawkins has had to treat his son Cody like any other quarterback who sucks, and it's led to all sorts of offensive ineptitude. I understand that Missouri was not in a very accommodating mood last week, but the Buffs failed to crack 200 total yards against a defense that was completely taken apart in successive weeks just prior. Their defense isn't close to good enough to overcome the offense's shortcomings, especially in the Big 12, which is as good offensively throughout the league as any BCS conference I can ever remember. A&M should be able to handle the Buffs easily at home.

2. Arkansas St +23 1/2 @Alabama: I'm pretty predictable aren't I? Here's Alabama again as a significant home favorite against a lower tier conference team. They are coming off yet another impressive win on the road, be it against Phil Fulmer's perpetual horror show, and are looking at a trip to Baton Rouge next week in what probably looms as their last chance to lose given Tuberville's problems at Auburn. I can't imagine that Arky St will get anywhere near Bama's best shot, just like Louisiana Monroe didn't as a 24 point dog at just about this time last year(a 21-14 Lou-Mon victory in Bryant Denny stadium.) I'm not saying that Arky St is going to go in there and win, but I'm here to tell you that they are a helluva lot better than La-Mon was. For the year they are outgaining their opponents by 100 yards per game, and are even doing so on the road for the year. They can run and pass, and have hung with some very good teams in the past, so they won't be out of their gourds here.

3. Iowa St +31 @Oklahoma St: here we find another spot in which the large favorite almost certainly will not be rolling their A game out on the field ths week. The Cowboys of course are coming off a great performance in Austin in which they almost knocked off Texas, and they are staring at a trip to Lubbock next week. Meanwhile, Iowa St comes in having lost 6 games in a row, including a blowout loss to Baylor in their last road trip. Despite appearances, Iowa St actually has the ability to move the ball, as they racked up almost 600 yards of offense last week against A&M. Granted, it was against a pretty questionable defense in A&M, but it's about 200 more than Okie St rang up in their home game with the Aggies earlier this year, so take it for what it's worth. Okie St's defense has definitely played well this year when motivated, but still shows signs of giving up points, much like they have for 95% of their past history. I agree that the 'Boys should be significant favorites in this game, but OSU was only a 17 point favorite against Baylor 2 weeks ago. I don't know if ISU is 2 TDs worse than that only 2 weeks later.

4. @Colorado St +14 1/2 v BYU: Everyone in the free world(let me rephrase that...everyone in the country) is on BYU in this game, and I'm having a hard time figuring out why. BYU has pretty much been exposed this year as somewhat of a fraud....that is, when being propped up as a BCS contender. So far in their road games, BYU is 0-3 ATS, having barely squeaked by a Washington team that is getting 47 points this week, getting played to pretty much a standstill for 3 quarters by Utah St and being chased off the field by TCU. Now they travel to Fort Collins to face a Colorado St team that is 3-0 ATS at home this year, including a game that they easily could have knocked off TCU. Colorado St has good balance on offense. They struggle on defense, but not so much that it has kept them from being competitive in any game this year. Besides, BYU has already played the nation's worst defense(Washington) and only put up 28 on them. The BYU team that scorched UCLA 59-0 could be favored by mre than 2 scores on this game, but not the BYU team that has been here the rest of the year.

5. @Boston College -3 1/2 v Clemson: This is a spread I just can't figure out. Clemson, over the past several weeks, has proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that they are severely lacking offensively, and in more ways than one. Their once productive run game has turned into a puny operation, and their passing game has led to more turnovers than anything else. With some of the best offensive talent in the ACC, they are ranked 80th offensively, while BC is ranked 7th nationally on defense. Clemson has played only one road game, a game in which they were completely slapped around by Wake. Now, with their confidence shot, both Qbs banged up and a borderline wack job filling in as interim coach, they go all the way up to Boston to play in the cold against a team that has had it's way with just about everyone defensively(although the wheels fell off for them last week at UNC). If I'm backing Clemson here, I probably would require double digits, and I certainly would want more than a field goal.

6. Eastern Michigan +18 @Western Michigan: I hate to use a bad cliche', but when these directional Michigan schools get together, you can throw out the records!!!! This is especially true in the previous cases between these two. Two years ago, Western hosted Eastern as a 17 point favorite, Eastern was playing without their QB and had a bunch of guys suspended, and the game came down to a FG as time expired. Last year, Western traveled to Eastern as a 6 point favorite and got dominated 19-2, outgained in the process 385-190. This year, again, Western is favored, and they are still alive to win th conference, while EMU is sitting at 2-7, hence the wide spread. However, Eastern has some weapons on offense, and obviously understands how to handle Tim Hiller, since they completely shut down WMU's offense last year. For the year, EMU has actually outgained their opponents and could have easily won 2 or even three more games with a couple breaks. QB Andy Schmitt is healthy now, having thrown for 300+ on a good Ball St defense last week. In this rivalry game, it seems to me that 18 is too much. The MAC is so crazy that 18 point dogs winning outright on the road aren't all that surprising. A blowout here frankly would be more so.

7. Texas -3 @Texas Tech: First of all, let me say that I am the happy owner of a 2 1/2-7 point middle opportunity in this game, so I hope the game is close. For whatever reason, this spread has taken a major tumble since it came out at 7 points on Sunday. Now it sits at 3. Despite the bad call on Tech last week, I remain somewhat unconvinced about the Red Raiders. Obviously, if they take care of business and upset the Longhorms this week, that will change, but I lean pretty heavily to Texas in this spot. Just about every pundit in the world is lamenting the fact that Texas has played 3 meat grinder games in a row, with OU, Mizzou and Oklahoma St all in a row. They can't possibly play 4 consecutive great games in a row can they? Well, first of all, I don't think they played all that great against Okie St, at least compared to the Mizzou masterpiece, but I do think they can turn in a good performance in this one. Texas Tech has not played a defense in Texas's league yet, and I think this might be the week that a lack of a legitimate receiving threat outside of Crabtree might catch up with them. Will Muschamp has proven himself as a great tactician defensively, so I do not subscribe to the theory that TT will score almost every time they get the ball. The Raiders have had games in which they didn't click offensively this year, it just hasn't caught up with them yet. I think you can make a case that McCoy and the Longhorn offense has been just as efficient as Tech has, so I think Tech's defense has a tougher matchup than Texas's defense does. Also, Leach is likely to find himself saddled by more than a couple open possessions because he doesn't have a reliable kicker. If he's not making his 4th down conversions, and he will certainly be going for it pretty regularly on 4th down, field position will be a factor, and I just don't see his team being able to overcome the disadvantages of having no margin of error as far as scoring a TD almost every possession. Tech also has not performed well in these showdown type games in the past. I like Texas here.

8. Georgia +7 v Florida: Yeah. We get it. Urban Meyer is pissed off about the ghetto thunder celebration in the end zone in last year's cocktail party. They've also looked unbeatable lately since their bye week, clobbering LSU and Kentucky. However, this game is not in the swamp, and Georgia showed last year that they are by no means intimidated by Tebow or the Gators. I can't tell you how impressed I was with Georgia last week, especially Matt Stafford. I was not sold on him as a QB prior to that, but he looked fantastic in beating blitzes and getting the ball where it needed to be under duress. I pretty much agree with people who say that Florida might be the best team in the country right now, and I think they'll probably win the game, but if you can buy the spread up to 7, I recommend doing it, because Georgia will be no pushover this week in my opinion. Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE is calling for a Florida DD victory this week. I do not see it. Georgia has playmakers on offense that Florida will be struggling to stop as well. The Dawgs have hot their stride in my opinion, so I would think it would take a superhuman effort from Florida to blow them out.

9. @South Carolina -5 1/2 v Tennessee: Tennessee is a complete joke at this point, especially offensively, and it's a shame, because there is definitely offensive talent there. However, to say that they are getting outcoached is akin to saying "The sun comes up in the East". They are an abomination on the sidelines, and Fullmer is likely to feel what it's like to have an axe come crashing down on his skull if he doesn't turn in an inspired performance this week. Unfortunately for them, they are facing the Ball Coach, who more often than not has failed to keep his disdain for Fat Phil and the Vols to himself. South Carolina's defense is statistically the best in the SEC, so I don't see more than about 10 points for them. Tennessee's defense has been something of a bright spot for UT, but when your offense continues to do nothing, defenses, even the good ones, tend to wave the white flag and have the roof cave in on them, and I see that happening this week. Under new QB Steven Garcia, SC has some continuity. I think things continue to snowball on UT this week.

10. @Mississippi St -2 1/2 v Kentucky: At this point, I think the respect for Kentucky is unwarranted. Obviously, last week was a tough one for them as they had to go to Florida with less than a full squad so they got drilled. They've shown some life on defense this year, but their offense remains a joke, especially now that their top 2 skill guys are out for the year. Mississippi St is no great shakes, but they have a competent offense now since Tyson Lee was inserted at QB, and they have a good defense when they play at home. Asking them to win a game is sometimes more than they can muster, but in this case, especially since Kentucky is so banged up and wasn't exactly the 27 Yankees before the injuries, I think they can git er done this week.

11. Iowa +2 1/2 @Illinois: I see an outright win for Iowa here. They are coming off a bye, while Illinois is coming off a cowardly performance in Madison against a Wisconsin team they should have rolled. Illinois needs this game badly, but so does Iowa. Illinois will have a very hard time stopping Shonn Greene, and they have struggled to stop everyone's passing game. On the flip side, Iowa proved last year that they know how to bottle up the Illini spread, holding them to 6 points in Iowa City last year, and have been very good on defense all year this year. Unfortunately, I also see a coaching advantage on the Iowa side. Until Illinois stands up and proves they can take care of business when they have everyone's attention, I am not sold. Throw in the fact that I really really really want to see them win this week, and I'm calling for some disappointment.

Others: A lot of these were very close to being musings...I just can't separate them all, so I'll list them here. UNLV is getting 14 at home against TCU. TCU is coming off two of the best performances you will ever see, a complete demolition of BYU 2 Thusdays ago and a predictable wipeout of Wyoming last week. Now they travel to UNLV with a trip to Utah on deck. Definite letdown spot, and UNLV has a lot of playmakers on offense. If TCU gets lazy or sputters on offense, which they are capable of doing sometimes, UNLV will give them all they can handle......Army is getting 9 at home against Air Force. Don't look now but the Cadets find themselves in position to perhaps contend for the Commander in Chief trophy for the first time in a long time due to their inspired play lately. Air Force is still better than them, but the Cadets have shown some mettle and definitely will give AF their best shot......Wake is a home favorite against Duke. You know the drill.....Washington St remains a automatic go-against for me, even if that means laying 30 points (30 POINTS!!!!!) with Stanford.....Ole MIss is in that unpleasant role of being a favorite again, this time a full TD at home against Auburn. For some reason, I see Auburn bringing a better effort this week, so I'll take the 7....BG is a favorite again, this time at home against Kent(+6). Kent is actually playing better than BG is right now especially with their running game, so I'll be taking the points....Louisville is laying 12 1/2 at Syracuse. We all know Syracuse stinks, but they sometimes can run it a little bit. Unfortunately for them. Louisville is good against the run, and they are on a bit of a roll, so they still give a crap about their season. That will probably lead to a cover for the Cards.....Virginia went from catching 2 at home with Miami to laying 2. If they were a dog again, this would be a musing, but as a favorite it changes things. I do still think that Virginia takes care of business at home though. Lots of people think the 'Hoos recent success is a fluke, but I don't....Is Washington really getting 47 points this week? As Mike pointed out, Pete Carroll can play his 5th stringers if he wants since he can suit up the whole campus at home, unlike on the road. My guess is he'll keep it down out of the mandatory respect he must have for the always respectable Ty Willingham.....That's it for this week.....hope everyone does well!!!