Week 6 Musings

I suppose it's unreasonable of me to expect to win two sizable money line bets on consecutive Thursdays on the same team, but goldang it, Oregon St really shat the bed in the final minutes in that game tonight. We're not talking Cubs offense level shitting of the bed, but it was a sizable dump. In addition, I will quote something I wrote only several hours ago...."I'd be worried about them if I didn't have confidence in Mike Riley, who I think is a solid coach." For the most part he is, but he has joined the ranks of the imbecilic as it relates to the inane practice of going for two before the 4th quarter of a game. First of all, it should not be up to me explain this to college football coaches, but when I have a money line bet riding on it, I implore our nation's college football coaches who obviously need some help in the firing synapse category..."Help me to help you." Oregon St's kicker hacked up his lung on an extra point attempt after OSU's first touchdown, resulting in a 9-3 lead rather than a 10-3 lead. After a quick 17 point run by Utah, the Beavs punched in a TD late in the second quarter. They go for two, naturally don't convert, and they're down 20-15. Later, onthe first drive of the second half, they score again, miss another 2 pointer, and lead 21-20. Finally, with a couple minutes left in the game, they score again, kick the XP, so they're up 28-20. Utah scores, get their own 2 pointer(perfectly fine, since it was late in the 4th quarter), forcing a tie game. What should have happened? If OSU kicks both XPs, assuming they make them, they are up 30-20 when Utah scores, resulting in a 30-27 game. Now, with 1 minute and change, they don't have to throw passes to get downfield,(their drive burned only about 15 seconds) so they can burn clock, leaving Utah much less time to go downfield to kick the GAME TYING FG, not the game winner. Maybe OSU wins in OT, maybe they don't, but their absolute inability to stop anyone in the last 2 minutes would only result in a tie, not a game winning FG. Just keep the damn card in your pocket until the 4th quarter, ok. At least they covered. Memphis would have covered as well if not for a total sleepwalk performance, in which they forgot how to tackle, turned it over three times in the 4th quarter when they had a chance to ice it, and failed to punch in a late TD from the 1, resulting in the FG margin of victory.So that was a push. 1-0-1 to start the week.

As for the Cubs...what can you say. Baseball is funny. Well, it isn't funny. it's excruciating. Teams get cold. Scoring is rocket science for one team, while it's Tiddly Winks for another. At least I have the Dodgers at +425 to win the pennant.

One other thing: There's this guy who calls himself Dr.Bob. He's a tout who uses statistical analysis to make his plays. Over the years, he has been pretty good at it, and the rumor is that a bloodthirsty Japanese ninja organized crime syndicate follows his plays with huge cash plays in Vegas. As a result, when he releases his plays on Thursday afternoon, the lines move, sometimes a lot. Last year, he had a bad year, but that hasn't stopped his minions from moving lines this year. Naturally, virtually every play for the weekend I have had my eye on has seen the line move against me, sometimes by a full 2 points. I cannot explain how frustrating this is. If I had time during the week to get these out earlier, I would, because I'd have additional value on these things. Some of them I did put in, but the lines I list here will be what they are as of late Thurs night. Sometimes some of them might move slightly back, but when this clown(who actually uses solid methods) makes a play, the value is generally lost on that side.

3. Friday BYU -28 1/2 @ Utah St: USU came off the mat to pound Idaho in Logan, UT last week, but now BYU comes to town. With them they bring probably half the crowd that will show up there and a prolific offense. In the two games they played before they handled Idaho they lost by 48 and 42 points, respectively to Utah and Oregon. I would say that BYU is the toughest test for these poor kids at Utah St. to date. BYU can't afford any kind of letdown since they are playing for style points in the polls, so you can expect them to name the score here, and it won't be pretty.

4. Penn St -13 1/2 @Purdue: Again, I despise taking road favorites, but I cannot tell you how impressed I have been with Penn State's offense this year. I don't think that there's any doubt that Joe Pa has the class of the Big Ten this year. They run it on everyone, they have gamenreakers in the passing game, and their quarterback appears to be a definite winner. On defense, they have had some hiccups, but never in any point when the game was seriously in doubt. Illinois actually hung better with them than I figured they would last week, but at no time as an Illini fan did I ever think they were in any position to actually stop Penn St when Penn State cared to not be stopped, if that makes any sense. Purdue is a decent team, but they have been outgained in all their games this year. They had a nice cover in their last foray as a home dog aganst Oregon, but after Kory Sheet's opening 80 yard TD scramble, they did almost nothing on offense. Defensively, hey are coming off a game in which Notre Dame gashed them for 200 yards on the ground. In case you haven't noticed, ND still struggles running the ball. Penn St will not have such troubles. Purdue also has struggled on special teams, having already given up a couple return scores this year, and 3 last year. Penn St, as Illinois can tell you, can do some things in the return game. Penn St probably only needs to avoid turnovers to win this one going away. Road favorites suck, and all that shit, but Penn St is a much, much better team than Purdue. I'm thinking 41-17.

5. Navy +4 1/2 @ Air Force. Here, we obviously have 2 teams that mirror each other...service academies with option attacks that struggle to throw it. Traditionally, I think you can say that Air Force generally has a slightly better collection of skill guys, but I don't think that's the case this year. Now that Kaipo is back under center, the world is round again, things went back to normal and Navy can run it on whomever they want to. Over the past 5 years, Navy has won and covered every time, 4 of the 5 as a dog winning outright. Despite their relative success, I still think AirForce is not anywhere near as good as they have been in recent years on offense. They were extremely lucky to stay on the same field with Utah, as they were outgained by 250+ and only had 190 total yards off offense but still managed to make it a 30-23 game. They also won outright against a Houston team that piled up a 150+ yardage edge. Can Air Froce beat Navy? Sure, I guess, but I don't think they can significantly control the action. Both teams will be able to run it, of course, but I like Navy's run offense better, and Shea Smith, the AF QB can't throw a pass to save his life, while Kaipo can complete a couple if he has to. This is a game that you could have gotten 6 earlier in the week, so that is definitely frustrating, but I think the odds of Navy winning this are about 55/45, so I'll take the 4 1/2.

6. Missouri -10 @Nebraska: There are a lot of handicapping angles you have to just idgnore here. Home team coming off a loss in which they want to make amends for the home crowd, road favorite who might give up some points in the passing game, etc, but I think Nebraska is headed for a beatdown. If there is one thing that Nebraska has proven the past couple of years, it is that they can absolutely not stop a good passing game. Colorado shredded them last year in their last game to the tune of 60+ points, Wstern Michigan piled up 342 in the air in week one, then subsequently scored 7 on Temple last week, and then there's Missouri. In their game last year, they gouged Nebraska for 606 yards in a 41-6 demolition that wasn't even that close. There is a lot of motivation for Mizzou here as well because they have not won in Lincoln more than 30 years, and their fans are salivating at the pospect of a whooping in this game. Missouri is also coming off what they consider a "sloppy" win over Buffalo in which they outgained a pretty good Buffalo squad by 300+. I can't see how Nebraska has any shot of stopping Daniel and company. If Nebraska can score on 75% of their drives, they might be able to keep up, and the jury is still out on Mizzou's defense, especially on the road, but I just see them getting buried under an avalanche of points. Bo Pellini can't just snap his fingers.

7. UCONN +8 @North Carolina: I like to harp on things like yardage edges, first down edges, and other things to somehow quantify how the scrimmaging actually went in a game...this generally will give you an idea on how good a team actually is, and if a team gets outgained in a given week and wins, they probably won't be so lucky the next week. However, when you get outgained 508-279 on the road and still find a way to win, you are definitely doing something right. UConn is the kind of team that I cannot figure out. I've been wrong on them just about every week, but I will not miss a chance to get significant points with them, when they are playing an uneasy favorite that might have some issues stopping the run. It's hard to get jacked up to play a team like UConn, but there they are, at 5-0 again. Last week, their scattershot QB Lorenzen got hurt, so they'll go with the ND transfer Zach Frazer, who many UConn fans are thrilled about. He should actually be an upgrade in the passing game. UNC struggled to stop Miami's run game last week, which Miami inexplicably abandoned, and they caught lighteneing in a bottle with backup Cam Sexton and their enviable group of receivers. I will be a very eager bettor in their favor when they are dogs, but as a favorite against a tem like UConn who is well coached and can lull you to sleep with a good run game, I'll take the 8.

8. @UCLA -17 1/2 v Washington St: WAZZOU kind of reminds me of the Illinois teams of the recent past who got absolutely hammered in every game they played due to lack of talent and confused coaching. It appears that Paul Wulff is overmatched, since he has failed to even come close to competing in any game they've played against a D-1 squad. UCLA is putting things together, starting to get the bearings about them, and I think Neuheisel would like nothing better than to run up the score on someone to prove to his guys that they have reason to be confident. The Cougs have given up 66, 45 and 63 points in their last 3 D-1 games, it has been a bloodbath. It's pretty obvious the players have given up. Any chance to fade WAZZOU on the road when laying 20 or less must be jumped on especially when you have a borderline jackass coach on the other side with no compassion.

9. @Colorado St -1 1/2 v UNLV: Short line due to CSU getting spanked in Berkeley last week, but a closer look indicates that CSU actually outgained Cal, they just have to get their shit together on the punt team, since they gave up TDs on a punt block and a punt return. They gave up an INT return for a score too, so I guess when you have 3 extra possessions, you should probably outgain your opponent. UNLV comes to the high altitude to play catching only a point. They had a nice game against ASU a few weeks ago where they pulled the upset, but they haven't really stopped anyone else, and are coming off a game in which Nevada absolutely torched them in all phases of offense. UNLV is giving up more than 5 a pop on the ground, and CSU has a nice 1-2 punch on the ground. I do not like UNLV's chances in this one to pull off an outright win.

10 Ohio St -1 @Wisconsin: Most of the pundits are on Wisconsin here, and I can understand why, since Ohio St really hasn't been overly impressive in any game they've played yet this year, but they will have chips on their shoulders in this one. Since they've made the switch to Terrelle Pryor at QB, they've kind of transformed themselves into a more dynamic team, and the combination of Pryor and Wells, who I assume will be healthier this week, might be too much for the Badgers. I still don't think that Allen Evridge is the answer for the Badgers at QB, and you can almost take it to the bank that PJ Hill will have some sort of owwie at some juncture. Ohio St has made a habit of coming in and playing well in their big conference road games over the past couple of years, and I think they will play well again in Madison this time, saddling Bret Bielema with his first home loss.

11 Army +20 @Tulane: I actually like Tulane's team quite a bit. Believe it or not, they dominated Alabama in week 2 on the stat sheet if not on the scoreboard, completed obliterated Lou-Mon he next week on the statsheet and won 24-10, then raced out to a huge lead against SMU and held on for a 7 point win. The trend here is that Tulane's dominance for whatever reason does not show up on the scoreboard. Now they get Army, laying 20, with the Knights coming off a trip to College Station where they played an alramingly bad Aggie squad to a standstill. They have moved to a run only offense, which is good because they have been very INT prone in the past. I really have no faith in Tulane's ability to cover a big number based on previous experience, and I think Army might be turning a corner a little bit.

12 @NC State +8 1/2 v Boston College: A lot of times, it's good to fade a road favorite who struggles to score. NC State is really banged up, wth guys missing on defense and at the receiver position. They lost their QB Russell Wilson, who engineered the upset of East Carolina, and were without him against USF last week, and that did not go well. He is back, so they have a fighting chance on offense. BC on the other hand has not been impressive at all on offense, with the QB Chris Crane barely completing 50% of his throws and sporting a 2/5 ratio. If NC State can get things going on offense, I think they can make a game of it, and I'm always in favor of tailing Tom O'Brien.

13. @Virginia + 13 1/2 v Maryland. Here is go again. Virginia is bad, but can it get this bad for them. They outgained Duke last week, but everythingf fell apart for them with turnovers. Somehow, I think they will sack up and play with a Maryland team isn't really all that good. Can Maryland turn in 2 consecutive good performances on the road. Somehow, I don't think so.

Others....Cal is in a bit of disarray, they can't settle on a QB, and RB Jahvid Best is out this week. Aizona St comes in catching 9 1/2. Although I don't trust them on the road, I think they are in a good spot to be pretty competitive this week. FIU is somehow a TD favorite on the road. I know they miraculously pulled the upset at Toledo last week, but there is no way they can come up with two efforts like that in a row. North Texas is getting 6 1/2, on principle, I'll be betting on UNT.....Nevada should kill Idaho. They're laying 24 1/2......Wyoming and New Mexico are pretty much the same team. No passing game, decent running game, ok defenses. Wyoming has failed a little more spectacularly than New Mexico has, so UNM is actually a DD favorite here. That shouldn't be the case, especially since their backup QB, who has been terrible, will be starting for them this week. Wyomng should be able to keep it within the 11....FRIDAY NIGHT>>>> Cincy travels to Marshall, traditionally a tough place to play and they are down totheir third string QB. Marshall is up and down, but they have some balance on offense, and if Cincy turns it over, has a good shot at the outright win. They're catching 3 at home, so I'll bite....I also have a feeling that USC will get pissed and pound Oregon. I am not sold on whatever QB they'll be throwing out there, so I think a blowout is a possibility. The spread sits at 16. That's it for this week. Have a good one.