Week 8 Musings

As I write this Tampa Bay is wrapping up the ALCS, up 7-0 in the seventh inning. That does not make me happy, so let me share with you why that is. As a Cub fan, I have to say that this completes the golden sombrero of embarrassment for the Cubs. I remember a conversation I had with Mike, probably 10 years ago, perhaps in '98 when the D-Backs and Devil Rays first came into existence where we agreed that those two teams, along with Florida and Colorado(the previous expansion teams) would all make the World Series, and would probably all win it before the Cubs made it. Well, at that point, Florida had won it and subsequently dismantled their team the year prior, so we had to agree that they would win one, dismantle the team, completely rebuild it and win another one before the Cubs would make a World Series. So what happened? Arizona won one a mere 3 years after opening their doors. Florida did indeed win another one, at the famously direct expense of the Cubs, of course. Colorado made one last year, and now, the icing on the cake, the absolute worst excuse for a franchise, a team that plays it's games in an airplane hangar with catwalks leading to nowhere, a team that has had 5 uniform changes and even a name change in only 10 years of existence, a team that prior to this year had never lost fewer than 93 games, gets to go to the World Series in the first year it ever posts a winning record. Call me a typical whiny Cub fan if you will, but that shit ain't fair. I could go on and on about "deserving" fan bases, and actually, that's a bunch of crap, but come on.....are you trying to tell me that the great people of that thriving baseball metropolis of Tampa Bay(actually, there's no such place, only Tampa)deserve to celebrate a World Series appearance? The state of Florida gets 3 in 10 years, and we get jack shit? I hope the Phils sweep those dickheads right out of that raw sewage smelling, rat infested idiot circus cesspool they call a ballpark post haste. Oh, and by the way, congratulations Fox on getting the worst possible TV matchup imaginable considering the postseason participants. I'm sure Joe Buck will enjoy calling game one of the fall classic from a cattle barn. I can't wait to not watch an inning of it. (Late note...Boston came back to win this game somehow....can we hold out hope???)

Like I said earlier, 6-5 last week. NC State did all they could to turn a 4 point 4th Q lead into a blown cover, but they held on so we're off to a good week. Should have pulled the trigger on TCU...I had a feeling BYU was headed for an unplanned, highly unpleasant and overly intrusive rectal exam. Oh well.....

2. @Boise St -23 1/2 v Hawaii: This is obviously a risky play, since I'm supposed to have been sworn off large favorites, but onthe blue turf, I'll bite. Boise thus far this year has allowed 3,7 and 7 points in their 3 home games. Hawaii is averaging 264 yards of total offense in their forays to the mainland in the post Brennan/June Jones era. Now they go on the blue turf against a Boise team that has looked very good this year and remains motivate to pay back the 'Bows for rubbing their noses in it last year late in the year on the island. Inoke Funaki is Hawaii's QB, and predictably, he has not been impressive. Given Boise's track record this year, I would be very surprised if Hawaii records more than 1 TD in this game, and if they do that they'll have to hold Boise to 38 to cover. I don't see that happening, since they are averaging allowing 43 per game on the road. Also, the last time Hawaii came to Boise without Brennan, the situation was eerily similar. 23 point spread, Boise undefeated, Asian QB for the 'Bows(remember Timmy Chang?) Final Score? 69-3. I don't think it will get that out of hand, but it might.

3. @Virginia +4 1/2 v North Carolina: If you've followed the musings the past 2 weeks, you've cashed tickets on the Cavaliers as home dogs rather easily and without incident. Now, for the third consecutive week, here they are again, catching more than a FG against a very opportunistic but confident North Carolina bunvh, who has been a friend to the musings as well. Certainly, Virginia's recent success has been no fluke. Since they have gotten reacquainted with their running game and and gotten comfortable with new QB MarcVerica they have shown soe real promise. Verica is 50/66 for a 75% completion clip in their wins over Maryland and ECU, and they have easily outgained both opponents. RB Cedric Peerman has run for 293 yards in those two games on only 34 carries, good for an 8+ clip. Meanwhile, UNC has lived somewhat of a charmed life lately, riding turnovers to wins over ND and UConn at home. They also beat Miami on the road 3 weeks ago, but were dominated statistically in that game. Miami subsequently has been unimpressive since, and now finds itself only a 3 point favorite over Duke, so, nuff said. UNC is due for a clunker, and they're a young team that is getting very impressed with themselves. They're expected to win in a place they haven't won since 1981(!!), and they probably believe it too. Major let down spot after the exciting win over ND last week(in which ND outgained them by 150+). Great chance for an outright winner for Virginia here...I'd actually say that the wrong team might be favored here.

4. Ole Miss +13 @Alabama: This is one of those plays that just looks like a tight contest. Ole Miss is good as a dog, Bama bad as a favorite. Ole Miss has outrushed every opponent they've faced this year, as has Bama, but there is some evidence there that they can control the clock, and they showed against Florida that they can be explosive in the passing game. I seriously doubt that they will be able to knock off a second top 5 team on the road in the same year, but I do think they can hang in this spot, since they have shown a penchant for being an annoying dog, and 'Bama has never been the type of team that can just blow people away.

5. Mississippi St +7 1/2 @ Tennessee: There was much better value on this earlier in the week, but I have to jump at it. Tennessee is in complete disarray right now as their AD recently said that he "would not rule out" making a coaching change in mid-season, in the wake of the Clemson coaching move. So now, Phil Fullmer has to think about two things at once, and he has enough trouble worrying about one, namely getting his team in a position to have any semblance offense. Don't look now, but MSU is pretty good on defense, and since they made the move to Tyson Lee at QB, they have been almost competent on offense, beating up Vandy's solid D last week, and notching 24 points in Baton Rouge the week before that. This is also one of the few times that Sly Croom won't be hopelessly overmatched in his game planning. Boo birds might be out early and often in Knoxville, and if the Vols should drop this one, you might see the long long LONG overdue firing of P funk.

6. Memphis +8 1/2 @ East Carolina: ECU was a great dog to back early in the season, and we did, but they are a completely different team now. They suffered major losses on the defensive side of the ball, and have a ton of people banged up this week. In comes Memphis, off a tough loss to Louisville in which they outgained he Cards by 182 yards but lost due to some brutal bounces. These two teams met last year in Memphis and ECU piled up 600+ yards in a shootout that could be called the Chris Johnson show. He ran for 301 yards on 20 carries, scored 5 TDs and led them to a 56-40 win. However, Johnson is gone now, and the ECU offense has sputtered since early in the year. Also, in that game last year, Memphis used their huge receiving corps to pile up 400+ through the air, and all of those receivers are back this year to terrorize ECU's secondary again. ECU is on such a terrible run that they cannot be trusted to cover a spread of more than a score, especially when facing a team that will undoubtedly be able to score on them.


7. Arkansas +7 1/2 @Kentucky: I'm a little disturbed about this one because it opened at 10 1/2, but the nature of my existence is that I really don't have the ability to jump on lines as quickly as I should. Basically, Kentucky is completely lost on offense right now...nobody knows who is going to play quarterback for them, and their best receiver, Dicky Lyons, Jr (great SEC football name, by the way) is injured and listed as out for this game. Meanwhile, Petrino and company continue to improve every week, and the Hogs once again made my day by shitting all over that walking hemorroid Tommy Tuberville for the third year in a row. Michael Smith is emerging as one of the SEC's few non-Florida offensive playmakers, and Casey Dick only turned it over 3 times last week, so he's gone from "ham-fisted turnover machine" to merely "mistake prone" in the past couple of weeks. Basically, I think Arkansas has enough offense, and Kentucky lacks enough offense to keep this one close, and in my estimation, it could go either way. Also keep in mind that Petrino and Brooks have played each other several times from BP's Louisville days, and let's just say that Coach Brooks was glad he left the state of Kentucky.

8. Miami(OH) +9 1/2 @ Bowling Green: Looking at this one, I am scratching my head trying to determine why in the hell BG is a sizable favorite against anyone with a pulse these days. I suppose they have garnered some consideration because of their win over Pitt 28 weeks ago or whatever it was. Since then they are 2-3 with losses to Eastern Michigan at home and blowout losses to Boise and Minnesota. They actually should have lost to Akkron last week as well, but snuck out a victory late. Miami is coming off a close loss to NIU, and although they have struggled this year, they have skill position players with experience, and are unlikely to get blown out. If BG was among the heavyweights of the MAC, this line would be legit, but they aren't. If we know anything about that MAC, it's that it's folly to lay sizable points with anyone, and I've learned that lesson myself.

9. @Iowa St +7 1/2 v Nebraska: Everyone on earth was falling all over themselves to declare how impressed they were with good guy Bo Pelini and his band of corn fed buffoons in their game at Texas Tech last week. Hey! They didn't get completely blown out, and actually took the Red Raiders to OT, only to lose. In my opinion, they couldn't be in a worse spot. Consecutive road games under a new coach, playing on the road as more than a TD favorite against a pretty good offensive squad when you can't stop a soul on defense. In my opinion, Nebraska is getting the respect normally reserved for a top 25 team in this spot, and they are definitely not that. Iowa St, though they were slapped around on the road against Baylor last week, has shown some things at home, including a definite ability to move the ball. QB Austen Arnaud is completing 60% of his balls and has an 8/4 ratio, so he's capable, and Nebraska is giving up more than 10 per attempt on the road against the pass. The world is on Nebraska. A leaky defense laying points on the road against a capable offensive squad, as I have mentioned, is very dangerous.

10. @Arizona +2 1/2 v Cal: Hey, it's hard to win on the road. Ask Cal after their trip to Maryland earlier this year. In their home ballpark, the Cats have been very good, although you can criticize their schedule thus far. Losses to Stanford and New Mexico on the road have Arizona lacking respect from the books, which could be legit, but I think they will come out fired up at home this week. Until this past week, Arizona had outgained all of it's opponents badly, and has played very well defensively. I think this is a game that Cal will get their best shot, and coming off a loss, I don't think Arizona will get caught looking ahead to their game next week with USC. I am still not sold on Cal, as they have a penchant to mail games in from time to time. Willie Tuitama has it going in the passing game (13/2 ratio, 66% completions) and they have been able to run it as well. Also remember that two years ago, Cal lost in Tuscon as a 13 point favorite despite holding UA's offense in check and getting breakout performances from Marshawn Lynch and Desean Jackson(including a 90+ yard punt return). Arizona is now better, Cal is now worse. The point being, Cal can find a way to lose, and in this case, I'm not even sure they're the better team.

11. Georgia Tech -2 @Clemson: At first I thought that Clemson might be dangerous this week, since it appears that Tommy Bowden's ouster might actually lower the pansy quotient on this squad, but after further reflection, I think not. Ga Tech spent the last week getting their offensive skill guys healthy, and their defense has never been a question. Clemson's offense has been, to say the least, and we still don't know who's playing QB. What we do know though, is that Clemson's offensive line is in shambles, and now CJ Spiller is hurt, so the home run threat is out the window. Paul Johnson vs this patchwork coaching staff for Clemson is a mismatch. I can't see Clemson sackng up and taking care of business here, even when they are getting poits at home.


Others: I like Eastern Michigan to beat Akron at home this week. EMU's QB is back, and Akron just moved to -4 1/2 as a road favorite. I don't think so.....I'm leaning toward Iowa(-4), because they have been dominating on both sides of the ball when it comes to the run game. The wheels have fallen off for the Badgers, and they have zero passing game to speak of, unless they sneak Darrell Bevell into Evridge's uniform and nobody notices. UW is yet another team that hasn't announced a starting QB. I wish Texas Tech was around -17, but they'll probably lay it on A&M even at -20 1/2. Louisville will probably get caught looking ahead to their game with South Florida, MTSU, who has been good as a dog might have some good value at +15....If QB Ryan Lindley plays for San Diego St(gametime decision), I think SDSU can hang with New Mexico. That's more of a hunch than anythng else. I kind of like Purdue getting points at Northwestern as well. I have a feeling that the 'Cats are a fraud, and I think Purdue can bounce back from a couple of subpar offensive performances. We're going to be in Champaign this weekend, so hopefully the Illini can avoid outgaining their opponent by 300+ and finding a way to lose. Good Luck to all, knock 'em dead.