As I've mentioned before, and in what seems to be a recurring theme, take this collection of fecal matter with a grain of salt, because I find new ways to look like an Illinois football coach(read: idiotic and helpless) every week. Last week there were more terrible recommendations, with some good old fashioned bone jobs thrown in for good measure. 3-6-1 for the week, which brings the unhappy totals to 36-45-2. 44%. I aspire to reach coin flip levels.
On another note, I'll have to bring up one of my least favorite people in the world, our good friend Bug Selig. As you may or may not know, and frankly, I;m not sure that anyone really even cares anymore, but the World Series is guaranteed to go into November this year. Why is that? Was there a work stoppage? A killer earthquake? A terrorist attack? No...it's just scheduled to go that long because baseball has already laid out the schedule for the World Series, regardless of when the LCS series end. If the Yankees win tonight, and they are trailing as I write this, the Phils and the Yankees will have almost a full week off until we start the WS. This will lead to obviously poor weather in Philly and New York, which will then lead to the obligatory screeching for the World Series to be played in a neutral site to avoid 30 degree weather. This, of course, could all be avoided if these idiots in the MLB office would just schedule the series to start a couple days after the teams are decided. But no, says Bug Selig. How on earth could anyone make arrangements for travel and hotels if game 1 wasn't pre-scheduled and set in stone? Well, first of all asshole, what good does it do to pre-set the schedule for travel reasons if we don't even know what cities we're supposed to make reservations in?? Second, the NBA and the NHL do it, and they don;t even have to worry about changing weather. I swear, if this mother fucker causes the advent of nuetral sites for the World Series, and the Cubs somehow stagger their way into the World Series I might drive to his dump in Milwaukee and rip his fish lips right off his face. Hey, don't tell me I'm delusional, and that the Cubs will never make the World Series. Who knows? Maybe they'll start awarding runs to offensive players who can jump over parked cars, or start awarding outs to pitchers who look cool in a football uniform and can run a skinny post.. Then maybe some of these horrific baseball players in the Cubs system might have some value.
On to this week. I must say that this week had some hellacious line movement. I locked in a few early this week that moved so much that I can't even recommend them at this point, like Clemson, which went from +8 to +4 1/2 at Miami. With Clemson's defense playing so well, it's a play at 8, but not at 4 1/2. Even with the line movement, some of them are still plays. Here you go.....
1. @Purdue -11 v Illinois: I really can't figure out what is so difficult to comprehend about this Illinois team which causes them to continue to have their games lined as if they are a legitimate D-1A outfit. They are not. This team is terrible in every facet, and this week, although just about every team in America is a bad matchup for them, this Purdue team is a REALLY bad matchup for them. Purdue has outgained opponents this year by almost 100 yards...their problem has been turnovers, which Illinois is incapable of forcing, so no fears there. Purdue has had success running it and throwing it, both things that Illinois can't stop. In previous years, when the Illini have hit the skids, they invariably limp into West Lafayette, where the Boilers pull out a can of whoop ass on them. I almost used the term Achilles heel for Illinois a second ago, but I think by definition, an Achilles heel is an example of a singular weakness. That's impossible for Illinois, because to be accurate, any rhetorical picture of the Illinois team would indicate about 13 Achilles heels. They'd be a torso, dozens of Achilles heels, and a very small brain.
2. @Virginia +5 1/2 v Georgia Tech: For some reason, this game is among the most popular public plays of the week. I really like Georgia Tech, so I'm glad to see them in their current position, which is the frontrunner of their division in the ACC by virtue of their victory over Virginia Tech last week in Atlanta. Now, coming off that emotional win, they have to go on the road to butt heads with All Groh, himself badly concussed, and his Cavaliers. First of all, as I mentioned, it's a tough spot for Ga Tech since they are coming into a letdown situation. They face, however, a Virginia team who has had some nice success against the option, especially last year at Georgia Tech when they held the Wreck to their lowest per carry output of the year and beat them soundly. This year's edition of the Wahoo defense looks as good if not better than last year. Also, Ga tech has proven to be a different team on the road as it relates to D than they have been at home...they're ranked in the low 100's in about everything defensively. It's true that Virginia has had some major issues on offense, but in home games they've been pretty good, an example being the beatdown they administered to Indiana, who isn't a bad defensive team. This looks like a 50/50 proposition for Viginia, so I'll take the better defensive team at home getting almost a TD.
3. South Florida +7(buy if needed) @ Pitt: On a neutral field, I don't know which team I would pick outright, so I think there is some value with South Florida. Offensively they have been balanced, and their defense has been good as well. Also, Pitt is due for their "Life is just a little too good right now" loss that seems to plague Wanny every year. In Pitt's one loss this year, Russell Wilson of NC State terrorized them with his running and passing combo, and BJ Daniels is a very similar QB to Wilson with a great chance to exploit Pitt's defense which is a notch below South Florida's. Like I said, these teams are very similar...I see this game being a carbon copy of the UConn game for Pitt, except South Florida is better offensively and probably a little better defensively as well. Pitt should have lost that game outright, so I'll take the 7 here.
4. Boston College +8 @Notre Dame: This is more of a feel play than aanything else, but I get the feeling that ND will be satisfied just to escape with a victory against a team that has owned them over the past 6 meetings. Many are steering clear of BC in this spot because of the freakishly brutal offensive performances that the Eagles have turned in in their previous road games. However, there are big differences between the opponents in those games. Clemson and Va tech are definitely different defenses than what they wil face Saturday, as the Irish are struggling in all phases on D. Throw in the fact that teams always save their best performances for South Bend, and I think you have the recipe for a team that will be able to put aside their previous performances. ND has been unable to shake pesky teams this year, and with BC's recent switch to a more wildcat type look, they will probably give the Irish some fits. Like I said, ND should be happy with just getting past this game. If they figure out a way to win one comfortably, good for them, but my guess is they don't especially in a deflating let down spot when the opponent is coming off a confidence building performance.
5. Tennessee +14 1/2 @ Alabama: I don't see Tennessee getting blown out here. Of course, if Jonathan Crompton reverts to form and gift wraps a couple of defensive scores for the Tide we might be a in trouble. Having said that, I think UT's recent improvement is real and it looks to me that they will thrive in this type of dog role as long as they are in it, which probably won't be for long. Tennesse's defense isn't on the level of bama's but it's close, and I can't see the Bama offense being anything more than it's efficient, unspectacular self this week. I also think that Bama is due for a nail biter, which every great team seems to have(see Florida last week), and if UT can figure out a way to punch in a score or two, especially with their solid running game, this might be the week. I just like the idea of an improving team who plays good defense getting more than 2 TD's, even if it is against what might be the best team in the country.
6. @Michigan + 4 1/2 v Penn St: I still am not convinced that Penn St is that great of a football team. So far they've played one road game, and that was against Illinois, who is so bad and poorly coached that you can pretty much throw out the results of that one. The only other decent team they have played is Iowa, and they laid an egg in that game. Now they are expected to march into the Big House and handle a Michigan team that they have not beaten in Ann Arbor in their last 5 attempts. It would take a special Penn State team to win this game, and "special" certainly does not come to mind when I watch this Penn St team. I'd use "pedestrian", "uninspiring" and "milquetoast" first, and we haven't even seen them in a hostile environment yet.. Even in games that Michigan looked bad, (Iowa and MSU) they were right there at the end of the game with a chance to win. I think Michigan will play very well in this game, and if that happens, they might win by double digits.
7. @Kansas +8 v Oklahoma: Kansas burned me last week due to an unexplicable start against Colorado(definitely missed the lookahead danger in that one), so I've definitely got the mustacheoed whale and his charges on my shit list, but they find themselves in a good spot this week. Oklahoma can't help but be demoralized, coming off a loss in a game that was going to be their last shot at salvation for this year. Toss in the fact that the Landry Jones is starting, and you can understand why the smell of disinterest might be eminating from the Sooners locker room. I will certainly take more than a TD with Kansas when they are coming off an annoying performance while Oklahoma is missing their QB and their remaining playmakers are hobbled(Brown Murray and Broyles). Regardless of the situation, Oklahoma will always elicit an inspired performance, and KU is among the best at back door covers even if they don't stay in the game until the end.
8. Idaho +15 1/2 @Nevada: This is normally a spot in which I would not go against Nevada, sinc they generally beat up on who they should, then shit the bed against good teams. However, there is simply too much line value in this game for Idaho, even if the Vandals are due for a clunker. Nevada has a devastting run game, one that generally is so good that it doesn't matter how good the other team has been against the run, kind of like Ga tech or Navy. However, it helps when you have stopped he run, which Idaho has done pretty well this year. Offensively, Idaho is very balanced, and as usual, Nevada is having issues defensively. Idaho had been sneakng up on people as a dog lately, but last week they took care of business as a significant favorite, which tells me something. They have been playing very well, and any time you can get this many points with a team playing as well as they are, you have to take them. Big value, especially against a 3-3 squad.
9. Iowa +1 @Michigan St: I think a lot of people are looking at this game as the game where Iowa gets exposed. I'd agree that the timing is right, and I think you have a lot of people hoping that MSU wins this game so we can end the "Iowa in the title game" talk that is scaring people to death throughout the country, but I don't think MSU is the team to do it. They are mistake prone, they don't run the ball particularly well, and they have shown many episodes of boneheadedness throughout the season. Iowa is solid in all phases, well coached, and properly motivated. They definitely showed me something last week when they came off the mat after being dominated in the first half by Wisconsin and counter-punched their way to win against a Badger team that is certainly better than this MSU squad. If MSU is going to beat Iowa, they are going to have to throw on them, and I don't think they can do it without having a couple errant throws picked off. Iowa is just better than them. MSu proved a lot to me with the way they bumbled around and let Michigan come back on them, only to pull it out in the end. If that happens against Iowa, even if they dominate play, they'll lose.
10. @Texas Tech -21(buy the half point) v Texas A&M: I love the transitive property. 2 weeks ago, Texas Tech put a shitkicking on Kansas St to the tune of 66-14. One week later, Kansas St beat A&M 62-14. So what should this spread be, Tech -100? Obviously not, but looking at trends, it probably should be more than 21. A&M under Mike Sherman has shown a disturbing penchant for giving up, or at least looking like they've given up. Also, there is a bit of a rivalry here...my Texas friends tell me that Tech and A&M generally hate each other, so you can expect that Mike Leach will not take any pity on the Aggies. The last three times A&M has ventured to Lubbock, Tech has beaten them thusly: 35-7 as a 10 point favorite, 56-17 as a 13 1/2 point favorite, and 59-28 as a 6 point favorite. A&M has played two games away from home this year and lost by an average of 54-16 to teams not as good as Tech and with much less hatred in their collective hearts. I don't like laying big numbers, but this one looks safe to me.
11. Vandy +14 @South Carolina: Here I go again with this offensively challenged Vandy outfit. The line has moved up to 14, and I think they might work a little better as a road team anyway. That's especially the case against a team like South Carolina, who almost always fails to cover ion these situations. DEspite their ATS performance over the past couple weeks, Vandy's defense remains pretty stout, ranked 17th in the country in yards per play. Statistically, I really can't pinpoint a clear edge in any phase...both defenses should be able to handle the opposing offenses, although Vandy might be able to have some success running it on South Carolina's defense, which is surprisingly ranked 71st against the run, while Vandy is in the upper third in the country in yards per carry. The last time Vandy came to Coumbia, they beat the Cocks outright. I don't expect that this time, but I don't think they'll get blown out either.
12. Louisiana Monroe +15 @Kentucky: Ideally, I'd like a couple more points here, and we might get them if we wait long enough. Kentucky has had some nice performances the past couple of weeks, but they've been as a double digit dog. Now they go into a significant favorite role, a role for which they appear to be ill-suited right now. Their regular QB Mike hartline is out for the season, so they have had to mix and match their Qbs, using two guys, both of which are not really ready to play. They surprised a looking ahead Auburn team last week with a tricky running game and clamped down on defense. Tghis week, their top RB Derrick Locke is not going to play and they remain unsettled at QB. They certainly won't be in a position to give their best effort to Louisiana Monroe, both physically and emotionally. Unfortunately for them, Lou-Mon is a pretty capable opponent, actaully outranking them in just about every category on both sides of the ball despite having played Texas and Arizona St this year. they have balance on offense, and have stopped the run pretty well on defense(ranked 34th nationally), albeit with some statistical anomalies thrown in. Lou Mon went into Lexington a couple years ago when Kentucky had Andre Woodson and almost beat them outright while hanging 500 total yards on them, so they won't be attempting the impossible here. Bad spot for Kentucky...they'll just want to get their W and go home.
13. @Auburn +7 1/2 v LSU: Auburn is coming off a shitty performance at home against Kentucky, and they'll be chomping at the bit to get back out there and make amends against an LSU squad that we can only assume willbe ill-prepared for them. LSU has had all kinds of time with the bye week, but that normally ends up working against them because it's just that much more time for Les Miles to impose his will on his kids and move them farther off the beaten path to success and competence. Auburn, despite their egg laying last week, has the 6th best rushing attack in the country, and LSU is not capable of putting up enough numbers offensively to stave off even an average Auburn offensive performance this week. Sharp bettors moved this line early all they from +11, and with good reason. I think Auburn has a better than 60% chance of winning this game outright.
14. Stanford -6 1/2 @Arizona St: ASU has gaudy defensive numbers, but they have been built on the backs of weakling offensive teams for the most part. Now they take their own putrid offense up north to palo alto to face a real offense, and a real running game in Toby Gerhart and Stanford. the cardinal has had a couple of tough games after a hot start, but their offense has kept on keepin on, including a 500+ yard effort last week in Tuscon in a game they should have won. Arizona St has had all kinds of trouble on offense, even failing to put up much of a whimper on the scoreboard against a ghastly washington defense in Tempe last week until the final gun, when Washington forgot to cover a Hail mary pass. Look it up on You tube...it was quite astoundingly bad pass defense by the Huskies. In short, Stanford will score on them, and they will do what they always do on offense, which is suck.
15. TCU -2 1/2 @ BYU: Yes 15 of them this week. I just don't think that BYU has the chops to knock off the TCU team. Last year, TCU administered a beatdown to the Mormons, and I don't think the teams are much different this year. It's true that BYU has a snazzy passing attack, I'm a fan of Max hall for sure, but they will not be able to run on TCU, and their pass offense becomes a lot less reliable when they can't run. Max hall has also thrown 10 INTs this year and TCU is historically a ballhawking defense. if TCU can pin it's ears back, it could be a long day for Mr Hall. On the flipside, TCu is very efficient on offense, with an above average running game and the 16th ranked passing attack in passer efficiency. BYU is ranked 85th against the pass and has had trouble with the likes of UNLV, San Diego St and Colorado St. I think TCU has the edge on both sides of the ball. TCU found itself in a very similar situation last year when they went into Utah as a slight favorite when they were unbeaten. they dominated that game but blew it at the end. Don't expect the same thing to happen again.
16 @Missiissippi St +23 v Florida: I know Urban is going to get me with a couple fumbled snap TDs or a tipped kick that sticks in someone's helmet running the other way or something, but this is too many points. Mississippi St has proven to be pretty good on defense and their offense is improving. Florida has never played well at Mississippi St, with all the cowbells clanging and whatnot, and Dan Mullen is Urban's buddy, so I'd suspect that he won't run it up on him. I've been waiting for Florida to explode, but it just doesn't look like they are as capable as they were with Percy Harvin..that was a big loss for them. I'll take the boatload of points with the home doggy here.
others......I have a hunch that Ohio St(-16 1/2) is going to lay a whoopin on Minnesota. 2nd consecutive tough road game for the Gophers against a stud defense. They'll be bringing a plastic fork to a gunfight with that offense they trotted out there in State College.....I also like Indiana getting 5 1/2 at Northwesterm. The Cats are awful home favorites, and I think that Indiana may have gotten that Virginia debacle behind them by virtue of a convenient trip to Bloomington from Illinois. Indiana has enough forepower to put some points up. I'd actually give IU the edge in a nuetral game, so I'll take the 5 1/2, which appears to be rising..... Oregon has a hell of a look ahead with USc on deck, but Washington's defense has been so bad that it's hard to recommend them. However, I still think Oregon has been doing it with smoke and mirros, and it will take a huge coaching effort from Chip Kelly to overcome the situation. I'm just not sold on that Oregon offense, and Washington(+10 1/2) has been game at home....Toldo should be able to cover the 3 at home against a Temple team that does it with grit and dirty tricks. Those go by the wayside though if you can't keep up on the scoreboard.....Louisiana Tech is getting points at Utah st(+1) and I think they'll win. They are too physical on both sides of the call for Utah St at this point.....That's it for now.....hop everyone has a good week. The Musings need one.
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Week 7 Musings
Good start in the Degenerate Special from Tuesday night. Lou-Mon came through for us, and probably would have made it a laugher if they played it in nice weather, as they couldn't even make use of their biggest advantage which was their ability to expose Arky St's penchant toward covering nobody. Whatever...don't hassle it, right? So this week starts out 1-0.
I'[ve often said that if you pick the right side of every game on the card, you'll win about 66% of your bets. As we all know, the "right side" doesn't always come in as the winner. Last week, we went 6-7, and by my estimation, we were on the right side on 9 of the 13. the 6 that won were never really in doubt, and 3 of the losses (Wisconsin, Arizona and UCLA) were tough ones. One of the things that I will undoubtedly get burned on at some time in the near future due to what happened last week will be my attempts to try and handicap turnovers. It simply can't be done. (Although I will say that you can almost chalk up a defensive or special teams TD right now for Ohio St against Purdue). The musings were absolutely destroyed this week by defensive and special teams TDs. Case in point, the Wisconsin game. The Badgers were undoubtedly the right side, which was evident from kickoff through the final gun. Not only did Ohio st get 3 non-offensive scores, they only notched 8 first downs all day, and the only offensive TD they got came on a 3rd and 15 heave into the endzone at the end of the first half. Moreover, Bret Bielema, the new meathead du jour, refused to kick a field goal in the 4th quarter even though he needed three scores in any case, instead opting to go for the gimme TD on 4th and goal from the 18. He kicks it there and we cover against all odds. Whatever....it was the right side. So was Arizona, who led Washington 33-21 with 4 minutes left, and 33-28 with the ball and 2 minutes left. Unfortunately, they decided to throw on first down, some doofus from Arizona dropped the pass then tried to kick it to himself, only to see it go off his foot, right to some wildman from Washington who scrambled into the endzone to blow the cover. UCLA also gave up a defensive score(naturally) and a kickoff return for a score. I'll maintain that there were probably 50 teams that would have beaten Oregon in that spot on Saturday. Unfortunately, UCLA was not one of them.
Having said all that, I have to admit that 2 of the 4 "wrong side" games were so far off it was downright comical. Indiana managed to be down 30-0 to Virginia by halftime, and gave up 500+ yards to the 115th ranked offense in the country coming in.....I made the following statement about BC in my assertion that they would hang with VT "Maybe if VT was explosive on offense or something..."(they had 31 points at halftime). I also called QB David Shinskie "at least competent". His line? 1-12, 4 yards, 2 INTs. Not a good call.
I decided to lay off the rest of the weeknight games, although there were some very interesting ones on the card. Actually, when I was capping the game from tonight, the line was Cincy -3 to -3 1/2. Right before kickoff, the line fell to Cincy -1. Had that been the case during the week, I would have been on it, but there was no way I could get it out in time. Another example of the public being wrong on a game. Speaking of tonight's matchup, kudos to USF for significantly improving their uniforms in my opinion. The yellow/gold helmets and monochromatic green uni's from previous year were total pieces of shit. The white pants and white helmets look much better. Now they look less like a bad high school team and more like a high class outfit. Too bad they stunk it up. They'll probably go back to the shitfest specials and Jim Leavitt will go back to spitting all over everyone during the pre-game peptalk. Oh yeah...one more thing. One of my favorite names in college football this year is Isiah Pead. Why? Just look at the boxscore. Under rushing yards, you'll see it: I. Pead: 11 carries 41 yards. I Pead!!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!
One last question before I start: Does anyone in the NFL wear normal uniforms anymore? Throwbacks, alternates, PC awareness bullshit....dos it ever stop? Is the NFL even interested in football anymore?
2. Texas -3 v Oklahoma: buy it if you have to, but 90% of the books have this at 3...only a couple have it at 3 1/2. An interesting thing about this game is the general lack of playmakers on both teams. Other than Jordan Shipley for Texas, there really aren't any playmakers that will be on the field at RB or WR for either team. However, it's my opinion that Shipley makes a big difference. He's had a great year, and is also a threat to take back a punt, as he did last year against the Sooners. Also, Oklahoma just is not showing any gumption at all on offense. Even last week against Baylor, it took them 4 tries from the 1 to get it in the end zone at home against Baylor. They've struggled all year running the football, and now they have to try to do so against the #2 rushing defense in the country in the Horns. I just think that Oklahoma is going to have all kinds of trouble getting the ball in the end zone because I have no clue who can actually score touchdowns for them in the passing game. Also, if you look at this matchup over the past 4 years or so, Texas has really had their number. Last year, they won by 10 as a 7 point underdog. The year before that they lost by 7 as a 12 point underdog and had a chance to tie that was botched by a bad call near the end of the game. They year before that they won by 18 as a 3 point dog, and prior to that they blew the Sooners out 45-12. I think Texas's solid play in the RR Shootout continues due to their greater ability to make big plays.
3. Wake +7 @Clemson: Here's one that I just can't pass up. It's a guilty pleasure of mine to bet against teams that appear headed for a train wreck, and Clemson in the Dabo Swinney era certainly qualifies. Poor Dabo is obviously overmatched in most cases, and he certainly will be this week when he attempts to match wits with Jim Grobe at Wake. Wake is a quality road dog, and Clemson is a terrible home favorite. The natives are restless down there, so if things start going poorly, look out. The one hesitation here is that for whatever reason, Wake's Achilles heel has been Clemson's version of Death Valley, but I think they'll get it done this time. Riley Skinner has been outstanding this year, as Wake's pass offense is 12th in the country on pass efficiency and 10th in yards per attempt. I think an outright win for Wake is just as likely as a cover for Clemson here. Wake's defense isn't overpowering, but they are opportunistic. Clemson's QBs are completing less than 50% and have a penchant for tossing it up for grabs.
4. @Vandy +7 1/2 v Georgia: I'll admit that it's hard to back Vandy a week after they lost to Army, but I find it even harder to avoid fading Georgia in this spot. Anybody who saw Georgia get clubbed like a pack of baby seals last week in Knoxville will tell you that the score should have been worse than 45-19. Both of UGA's TDs were of the fluke variety(INT return and a KO return).Tennessee QB Jonathan Crompton, who previously would have been holding the clipboard for my son Lucas's 6-7 year old flag football team, shredded the Dawgs for 4 TD's and 11.48 yards per attempt. Their offense forgot how to gain positive yardage, and their coaching staff is under extreme pressure. On paper, Vandy actually looks to have the edge in most of the unit matchups. Also, just like last week, the world is on Georgia. Lord help them if they lose this one, but I think the chances are actually better than 50% that they do. DC Willie Martinez might as well stay in Nashville if that happens.
5. Wyoming +10 1/2 @Air Force: Don't look now, but Wyoming is 4-2. I realize that doesn't mean much, because they've beaten mostly all bottom feeders, but it does lend credibility to the assertion that new coach Dave Christiansen has the players believing that they can be good. Now they line up against Air Force who is coming off an emotional game against TCU in which they didn't deserve to hang with the Frogs, but they did. Air Force has struggled mightily on offense lately, as I mentioned last week. Wyoming does a decent job of stopping the run, and they have gotten pretty good QB play from Freshman Austin Carta-Samuels. At this point, I think this number is too much for Air Force.
6. @Wisconsin -2 1/2 v Iowa: Iowa is currently undefeated, but they have lived a charmed life thus far, including last week, when they won an emotional game with Michigan by 2. Now they start the first of two roadies with a trip to Wisconsin. Wisconsin is coming off a very tough loss at Ohio St, but still has to be confident with the way they handled the Buckeyes. Now they return home with a new lease on life and a chance to prove to everyone that they're as good as they think they are. Iowa, though capable, will have a very hard time getting up yet again for a big game, and there is a chance that they might get run over in this game, because they have had some difficulty stopping the run, and they'll be getting a large and angry Wisconsin offensive line in Madison with an equally as alarming John Clay resembling a runaway freight train. It's pretty easy to envision Iowa's 77th ranked rush defense having all kinds a problems with these animals when they're whipped up in a frenzy in front of that mob scene in Madison. The Badgers will definitely have the motivational edge in this one, as this is the first big home game they've played, while Iowa will have to get up heavily for their third game in four weeks.Throw in the run game disadvantage, and it's a very tough spot for the Haawkeyes. If they pull it out, I'll certainly be tipping my cap.
7. @Indiana +3 1/2 v Illinois: After that complete ankle grab that Indiana treated us to last week, I would generally vow to never again waste my hard earned money on such a group of pansies. Indeed, there is probably only 1 team that I would bet on Indiana against, and not only do they play them this week, they are getting points from them at home! How anyone can make Illinois any kind of road favorite is beyond me. It absolutely cannot be based in any sort of real-life experience in 2009, only on some interpreted events from someone's imagination, or actual events from days long past and now irrelevant. Knowing this cast of braniacs, they're probably assuming they'll win because Indiana lost by 40 points last week, and all they'll need to do is roll their orange helmets out there and let their collective coolness win the game for them against such an overmatched opponent. Never mind that on paper, IU still outrates them in most of matchups even after the shitkicking they took last week. The fact remains that Illinois can't throw the ball to save their lives, can't stop the run, can't cover and can't tackle. And they're stupid. I keep telling people that Illinois is going 1-11. Maybe after they're non-competitive in this game, people will start believing me.
8. Missouri +7 @ Oklahoma St: This is a game that falls a bit under the radar, but should be a pretty good one. Oklahoma st is a solid enough team, but they are considerably worse without Dez Bryant. He might be back soon after the NCAA lets him come out of his room for lying to them about a relationship with Deion Sanders(sounds dirty but it isn't...at least I don't think it is). They also might be without starting RB Kendall Hunter, who at least will be hobbled with a bad ankle. I'm not big on the other running back they have, Keith Toston, and their results overall as an offense have been underwhelming this year. They were outgained by Rice, and Houston, which I would say is pretty similar to Mizzou on offense, shredded them in Stillwater a few weeks ago. Mizzou is coming off a tough loss to Nebraska, but their goals are still intact, and they'll be ready to roll. I think the matchup is a good one for Mizzou here, as they'll be able to move the ball and will catch Okie St in a spot where they won't have all their weapons. I'd ideally like to have a couple more points, but as long as it's a TD or more, I like it, because I think this game will be coming down to the wire.
9. Army +10 1/2 @ Temple: Ok I'll bite. Chances are the weather will be awful in this game, as the northeast is expecting cold and possibly snow this weekend. That will make it tough on the passing games. Any conditions that will lessen the effects of any passing games is good for Army, as they have a grammar school level passing game. They can run it though, and they have been pretty good at stopping the run. Temple has had a decent year, but they are pedestrian on offense, and pretty similar to Army for the most part. In my opinion, these two teams are evenly matched, and in a sludgefest type of game, which it appears this will be, I couldn't tell you with any kind of confidence which team would win this game. Army has just as good a chance to win it if they don't vomit on themselves with a slew of turnovers, so I'll certainly take the double digits.
10 Kansas -10 @Colorado: Although KU struggled with Iowa St last week, I don't believe they'll have the same problems with Colorado this week. Colorado has been putrid against the pass as well as the run, and against an offense like KU's that's a recipe for disaster. Colorado's charade performance agaisnt a disinterested Texas team and Ku's failure to avoid screwing around with iowa St are the reason for this somewhat reasonable line. KU has issues on defense, but Colorado has a mess on it's handls with it's offense, so it probably won't matter. They have no clue who is going to play QB for them. This looks like a 44-14 type game to me.
Others: If you consider the transitive property, NIU beat Western Michigan two weeks ago in DeKalb 38-3, and Toledo lost to WMU 58-26 in Toledo last week. Now NIU plays Toledo. Not surprisingly, Toledo is getting 7 from the Huskies, but for some reason, I think Toledo, in all it's schizophrenic glory, has a great shot of beating the Huskies with their pinball machine(at times) offense. their too inconsistent to 100% recommend them though.....Gut play: Kstate comes off the mat after a complete grilling from Texas tech to beat A&M at home as a 6 point dog. A&M shouldn't be favored on the road, and a worse K State team beat A&M last year in College Station by 13....Leaning toward taking all those points (24-26 depending on where you're looking) with Arkansas, but I'm still invoking my rule of not offending Urban Meyer.....I can't figure out that texas tech/Nebraska line. generally I would be all over those points, but someone must know something I don't. I'll be playing the red raiders, but if Texas Tech come out in pink uni's or something(which I wouldn't actually be surprised by if it happened in the NFL), I'll know I've been had. Kentucky doesn't have a QB, so if they don't run it and play solid defense, they might get blown out at Auburn(-13)..... That's it for now, though I might have more late tonight......
I'[ve often said that if you pick the right side of every game on the card, you'll win about 66% of your bets. As we all know, the "right side" doesn't always come in as the winner. Last week, we went 6-7, and by my estimation, we were on the right side on 9 of the 13. the 6 that won were never really in doubt, and 3 of the losses (Wisconsin, Arizona and UCLA) were tough ones. One of the things that I will undoubtedly get burned on at some time in the near future due to what happened last week will be my attempts to try and handicap turnovers. It simply can't be done. (Although I will say that you can almost chalk up a defensive or special teams TD right now for Ohio St against Purdue). The musings were absolutely destroyed this week by defensive and special teams TDs. Case in point, the Wisconsin game. The Badgers were undoubtedly the right side, which was evident from kickoff through the final gun. Not only did Ohio st get 3 non-offensive scores, they only notched 8 first downs all day, and the only offensive TD they got came on a 3rd and 15 heave into the endzone at the end of the first half. Moreover, Bret Bielema, the new meathead du jour, refused to kick a field goal in the 4th quarter even though he needed three scores in any case, instead opting to go for the gimme TD on 4th and goal from the 18. He kicks it there and we cover against all odds. Whatever....it was the right side. So was Arizona, who led Washington 33-21 with 4 minutes left, and 33-28 with the ball and 2 minutes left. Unfortunately, they decided to throw on first down, some doofus from Arizona dropped the pass then tried to kick it to himself, only to see it go off his foot, right to some wildman from Washington who scrambled into the endzone to blow the cover. UCLA also gave up a defensive score(naturally) and a kickoff return for a score. I'll maintain that there were probably 50 teams that would have beaten Oregon in that spot on Saturday. Unfortunately, UCLA was not one of them.
Having said all that, I have to admit that 2 of the 4 "wrong side" games were so far off it was downright comical. Indiana managed to be down 30-0 to Virginia by halftime, and gave up 500+ yards to the 115th ranked offense in the country coming in.....I made the following statement about BC in my assertion that they would hang with VT "Maybe if VT was explosive on offense or something..."(they had 31 points at halftime). I also called QB David Shinskie "at least competent". His line? 1-12, 4 yards, 2 INTs. Not a good call.
I decided to lay off the rest of the weeknight games, although there were some very interesting ones on the card. Actually, when I was capping the game from tonight, the line was Cincy -3 to -3 1/2. Right before kickoff, the line fell to Cincy -1. Had that been the case during the week, I would have been on it, but there was no way I could get it out in time. Another example of the public being wrong on a game. Speaking of tonight's matchup, kudos to USF for significantly improving their uniforms in my opinion. The yellow/gold helmets and monochromatic green uni's from previous year were total pieces of shit. The white pants and white helmets look much better. Now they look less like a bad high school team and more like a high class outfit. Too bad they stunk it up. They'll probably go back to the shitfest specials and Jim Leavitt will go back to spitting all over everyone during the pre-game peptalk. Oh yeah...one more thing. One of my favorite names in college football this year is Isiah Pead. Why? Just look at the boxscore. Under rushing yards, you'll see it: I. Pead: 11 carries 41 yards. I Pead!!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!
One last question before I start: Does anyone in the NFL wear normal uniforms anymore? Throwbacks, alternates, PC awareness bullshit....dos it ever stop? Is the NFL even interested in football anymore?
2. Texas -3 v Oklahoma: buy it if you have to, but 90% of the books have this at 3...only a couple have it at 3 1/2. An interesting thing about this game is the general lack of playmakers on both teams. Other than Jordan Shipley for Texas, there really aren't any playmakers that will be on the field at RB or WR for either team. However, it's my opinion that Shipley makes a big difference. He's had a great year, and is also a threat to take back a punt, as he did last year against the Sooners. Also, Oklahoma just is not showing any gumption at all on offense. Even last week against Baylor, it took them 4 tries from the 1 to get it in the end zone at home against Baylor. They've struggled all year running the football, and now they have to try to do so against the #2 rushing defense in the country in the Horns. I just think that Oklahoma is going to have all kinds of trouble getting the ball in the end zone because I have no clue who can actually score touchdowns for them in the passing game. Also, if you look at this matchup over the past 4 years or so, Texas has really had their number. Last year, they won by 10 as a 7 point underdog. The year before that they lost by 7 as a 12 point underdog and had a chance to tie that was botched by a bad call near the end of the game. They year before that they won by 18 as a 3 point dog, and prior to that they blew the Sooners out 45-12. I think Texas's solid play in the RR Shootout continues due to their greater ability to make big plays.
3. Wake +7 @Clemson: Here's one that I just can't pass up. It's a guilty pleasure of mine to bet against teams that appear headed for a train wreck, and Clemson in the Dabo Swinney era certainly qualifies. Poor Dabo is obviously overmatched in most cases, and he certainly will be this week when he attempts to match wits with Jim Grobe at Wake. Wake is a quality road dog, and Clemson is a terrible home favorite. The natives are restless down there, so if things start going poorly, look out. The one hesitation here is that for whatever reason, Wake's Achilles heel has been Clemson's version of Death Valley, but I think they'll get it done this time. Riley Skinner has been outstanding this year, as Wake's pass offense is 12th in the country on pass efficiency and 10th in yards per attempt. I think an outright win for Wake is just as likely as a cover for Clemson here. Wake's defense isn't overpowering, but they are opportunistic. Clemson's QBs are completing less than 50% and have a penchant for tossing it up for grabs.
4. @Vandy +7 1/2 v Georgia: I'll admit that it's hard to back Vandy a week after they lost to Army, but I find it even harder to avoid fading Georgia in this spot. Anybody who saw Georgia get clubbed like a pack of baby seals last week in Knoxville will tell you that the score should have been worse than 45-19. Both of UGA's TDs were of the fluke variety(INT return and a KO return).Tennessee QB Jonathan Crompton, who previously would have been holding the clipboard for my son Lucas's 6-7 year old flag football team, shredded the Dawgs for 4 TD's and 11.48 yards per attempt. Their offense forgot how to gain positive yardage, and their coaching staff is under extreme pressure. On paper, Vandy actually looks to have the edge in most of the unit matchups. Also, just like last week, the world is on Georgia. Lord help them if they lose this one, but I think the chances are actually better than 50% that they do. DC Willie Martinez might as well stay in Nashville if that happens.
5. Wyoming +10 1/2 @Air Force: Don't look now, but Wyoming is 4-2. I realize that doesn't mean much, because they've beaten mostly all bottom feeders, but it does lend credibility to the assertion that new coach Dave Christiansen has the players believing that they can be good. Now they line up against Air Force who is coming off an emotional game against TCU in which they didn't deserve to hang with the Frogs, but they did. Air Force has struggled mightily on offense lately, as I mentioned last week. Wyoming does a decent job of stopping the run, and they have gotten pretty good QB play from Freshman Austin Carta-Samuels. At this point, I think this number is too much for Air Force.
6. @Wisconsin -2 1/2 v Iowa: Iowa is currently undefeated, but they have lived a charmed life thus far, including last week, when they won an emotional game with Michigan by 2. Now they start the first of two roadies with a trip to Wisconsin. Wisconsin is coming off a very tough loss at Ohio St, but still has to be confident with the way they handled the Buckeyes. Now they return home with a new lease on life and a chance to prove to everyone that they're as good as they think they are. Iowa, though capable, will have a very hard time getting up yet again for a big game, and there is a chance that they might get run over in this game, because they have had some difficulty stopping the run, and they'll be getting a large and angry Wisconsin offensive line in Madison with an equally as alarming John Clay resembling a runaway freight train. It's pretty easy to envision Iowa's 77th ranked rush defense having all kinds a problems with these animals when they're whipped up in a frenzy in front of that mob scene in Madison. The Badgers will definitely have the motivational edge in this one, as this is the first big home game they've played, while Iowa will have to get up heavily for their third game in four weeks.Throw in the run game disadvantage, and it's a very tough spot for the Haawkeyes. If they pull it out, I'll certainly be tipping my cap.
7. @Indiana +3 1/2 v Illinois: After that complete ankle grab that Indiana treated us to last week, I would generally vow to never again waste my hard earned money on such a group of pansies. Indeed, there is probably only 1 team that I would bet on Indiana against, and not only do they play them this week, they are getting points from them at home! How anyone can make Illinois any kind of road favorite is beyond me. It absolutely cannot be based in any sort of real-life experience in 2009, only on some interpreted events from someone's imagination, or actual events from days long past and now irrelevant. Knowing this cast of braniacs, they're probably assuming they'll win because Indiana lost by 40 points last week, and all they'll need to do is roll their orange helmets out there and let their collective coolness win the game for them against such an overmatched opponent. Never mind that on paper, IU still outrates them in most of matchups even after the shitkicking they took last week. The fact remains that Illinois can't throw the ball to save their lives, can't stop the run, can't cover and can't tackle. And they're stupid. I keep telling people that Illinois is going 1-11. Maybe after they're non-competitive in this game, people will start believing me.
8. Missouri +7 @ Oklahoma St: This is a game that falls a bit under the radar, but should be a pretty good one. Oklahoma st is a solid enough team, but they are considerably worse without Dez Bryant. He might be back soon after the NCAA lets him come out of his room for lying to them about a relationship with Deion Sanders(sounds dirty but it isn't...at least I don't think it is). They also might be without starting RB Kendall Hunter, who at least will be hobbled with a bad ankle. I'm not big on the other running back they have, Keith Toston, and their results overall as an offense have been underwhelming this year. They were outgained by Rice, and Houston, which I would say is pretty similar to Mizzou on offense, shredded them in Stillwater a few weeks ago. Mizzou is coming off a tough loss to Nebraska, but their goals are still intact, and they'll be ready to roll. I think the matchup is a good one for Mizzou here, as they'll be able to move the ball and will catch Okie St in a spot where they won't have all their weapons. I'd ideally like to have a couple more points, but as long as it's a TD or more, I like it, because I think this game will be coming down to the wire.
9. Army +10 1/2 @ Temple: Ok I'll bite. Chances are the weather will be awful in this game, as the northeast is expecting cold and possibly snow this weekend. That will make it tough on the passing games. Any conditions that will lessen the effects of any passing games is good for Army, as they have a grammar school level passing game. They can run it though, and they have been pretty good at stopping the run. Temple has had a decent year, but they are pedestrian on offense, and pretty similar to Army for the most part. In my opinion, these two teams are evenly matched, and in a sludgefest type of game, which it appears this will be, I couldn't tell you with any kind of confidence which team would win this game. Army has just as good a chance to win it if they don't vomit on themselves with a slew of turnovers, so I'll certainly take the double digits.
10 Kansas -10 @Colorado: Although KU struggled with Iowa St last week, I don't believe they'll have the same problems with Colorado this week. Colorado has been putrid against the pass as well as the run, and against an offense like KU's that's a recipe for disaster. Colorado's charade performance agaisnt a disinterested Texas team and Ku's failure to avoid screwing around with iowa St are the reason for this somewhat reasonable line. KU has issues on defense, but Colorado has a mess on it's handls with it's offense, so it probably won't matter. They have no clue who is going to play QB for them. This looks like a 44-14 type game to me.
Others: If you consider the transitive property, NIU beat Western Michigan two weeks ago in DeKalb 38-3, and Toledo lost to WMU 58-26 in Toledo last week. Now NIU plays Toledo. Not surprisingly, Toledo is getting 7 from the Huskies, but for some reason, I think Toledo, in all it's schizophrenic glory, has a great shot of beating the Huskies with their pinball machine(at times) offense. their too inconsistent to 100% recommend them though.....Gut play: Kstate comes off the mat after a complete grilling from Texas tech to beat A&M at home as a 6 point dog. A&M shouldn't be favored on the road, and a worse K State team beat A&M last year in College Station by 13....Leaning toward taking all those points (24-26 depending on where you're looking) with Arkansas, but I'm still invoking my rule of not offending Urban Meyer.....I can't figure out that texas tech/Nebraska line. generally I would be all over those points, but someone must know something I don't. I'll be playing the red raiders, but if Texas Tech come out in pink uni's or something(which I wouldn't actually be surprised by if it happened in the NFL), I'll know I've been had. Kentucky doesn't have a QB, so if they don't run it and play solid defense, they might get blown out at Auburn(-13)..... That's it for now, though I might have more late tonight......
Weeknight degenerate special week 7
I'm not going to get in to recapping week 6 yet, as I'll get to that later. Not sure yet if I'll have anything for the rest of the weeknight games either, as it's mostly Big East stuff, though the Cincy/USF game looks pretty interesting to watch. I'm never all that excited about having an opinion on these Sun Belt games, but this one seems to make some sense.
1. @Louisiana Monroe -2 v Arkansas St: Over the years, I've had some affinity for Arkansas St. First, until they buckled under a preceived pressure that nobody likely cared enough about their program to exert, their name was the Indians, which was pretty cool in this day and age. Also, they seemed to consistently outgain their opponents, and even had a couple dominating performances against teams from conferences higher up on the food chain than the Sun Belt. However, in recent years, they have shit the bed in big spots, and have definitely not payed to their perceived level on the road in conference. In their last 10 Sun Belt road games, they are 2-8 ATS having lost 3 outright as favorites. One of those times was the last time they traveled to Monroe, where they lost by 17 as a 2 point favorite. Looking at the matchup, I give Monroe the edge in pretty much all the phases, but especially in the passing game, where Arky St is ranked 107th against the pass while Monroe has been successful running and passing against some pretty good defenses. I believe that Arky St is getting some pointspread respect due to their good performance at iowa, but remember that that game was a disaster of a spot for the Hawkeyes, and Iowa isn't really wired to blow people out anyway. My guess is that the Red Wolves(boo!) will lose by more here than they did at Iowa. We've got the better team at home against a team that struggles on the road in conference and we only have to lay 2. I'm a buyer.
1. @Louisiana Monroe -2 v Arkansas St: Over the years, I've had some affinity for Arkansas St. First, until they buckled under a preceived pressure that nobody likely cared enough about their program to exert, their name was the Indians, which was pretty cool in this day and age. Also, they seemed to consistently outgain their opponents, and even had a couple dominating performances against teams from conferences higher up on the food chain than the Sun Belt. However, in recent years, they have shit the bed in big spots, and have definitely not payed to their perceived level on the road in conference. In their last 10 Sun Belt road games, they are 2-8 ATS having lost 3 outright as favorites. One of those times was the last time they traveled to Monroe, where they lost by 17 as a 2 point favorite. Looking at the matchup, I give Monroe the edge in pretty much all the phases, but especially in the passing game, where Arky St is ranked 107th against the pass while Monroe has been successful running and passing against some pretty good defenses. I believe that Arky St is getting some pointspread respect due to their good performance at iowa, but remember that that game was a disaster of a spot for the Hawkeyes, and Iowa isn't really wired to blow people out anyway. My guess is that the Red Wolves(boo!) will lose by more here than they did at Iowa. We've got the better team at home against a team that struggles on the road in conference and we only have to lay 2. I'm a buyer.
Friday, October 9, 2009
Week 6 Musings
As bad as I've been this year, complaining about a positive week would seem a bit ridiculous, but I wish I had a couple of those back. There were 5 siginificant dogs that I liked quite a bit last week, Vandy, Indiana and the three ACC teams. (Duke, Maryland and Virginia). Turns out the ones I picked for the numbered musings went 0-2, the ones I threw in the also rans went 3-0, with two of them winning outright. To be honest, both Indiana and Vandy played horribly, and still both had a shot to cover if they hadn't thrown picks in the end zone. Oh well...whatever. 7-6 for the week, 27-32 for the year. Having said that, I wish I could have had a better number for the musings considering I was good enough in my overall bets last week to get capped on college football sides by Sportsbook. Max bet: $1. I'm guessing it was an overreaction to other things, but it just so happened that I started using SB two weeks ago for college sides and it coincided with back to back weeks of 23-12 and 24-10. So they capped me. Those poor bastards. They capped a guy who two weeks ago couldn't pick his ass with a garden tool. It's all about timing I guess. They should talk to the guys at Bet Jamaica. BJ would tell them to get their heads examined, since they now lost one of the most reliable squares in the Midwest. Like I said, too bad I didn't do a better job of picking the right ones. The also rans went 6-1, but after re-reading the UCLA/Stanford quip maybe that was more a rip on Kevin Craft than a play on UCLA. Gotta count it though.
Some observations: How about them St Louis Cardinals? I quit caring about baseball after I watched Alfonso Soriano flail at a triple A slider for 400th time this year sometime in mid August, but seeing what happened to them last night was nothing short of spectacular. Here's a franchise that hasn't had an ounce of bad luck on the field in about 17 years, and they had a Brant Brown moment last night in the most important game they've played in 3 years. I wish I could have been in a bar in St Louis at that moment, as all these gorp Cardinal fans were clutching their teddy bears rooting their boys on to a win, only to see them all gasp in horror as the most recent Mr Perfect, Matt Holiday botched a routine fly that would have ended the game. Here's a big middle finger and a Lloyd Christmas style HAHAHAHAHA from the cold, cold evil heart of a Cubs fan who is absolutely beside himself in glee at your once in a lifetime misfortune. With my luck they'll tear off three in a row against all odds. God, I hope not.
Quickly: I was thinking about playing Kentucky +12 at South Carolina, but decided against it becasue Kentucky starting CBs(both) were out and the line dropped to 9 1/2, but when I was looking at that game, I came across following exchange between a reporter and OBC, regarding the previously mentioned corners:
Reporter: "Coach Brooks said that both of the corners are very doubtful and probably won't play this week"
OBC: "Boy, I sure hope they don't. That would be great."
Not sure why, but I just found that to be hillarious. I'll probably bet on Kentucky anyway.
1. Michigan St -3 1/2 @ Illinois: There are some smart handicappers who are outsmarting themselves in this one. It's not that difficult: Bet against teams who have questionable character and horrendous coaching when that team is playing against a team in the same talent stratosphere. MSU qualifies. Don't talk about a tough letdown situation, or a team that has talent and is seeing a drop in class, etc. The question is simple: Will MSU desire to win the game? Since they will be making the trip we can only assume the answer is yes. So bet on them. The last thing I feel like doing right now is selling all of you on the notion that Ron Zook's staff is among the worst in Division 1, and certainly worst of any BCS conference school, but i feel I must. When they beat Iowa last year, they reached a point when they had to figure out where the program was going, i.e., taking the next step. If they sacked up and finished strong, they would go to a bowl for the second year in a row, and they would have turned a corner. Here's what has happened since:They faced a tough coaching/motivation situation playing Western Michigan in Detroit off the Iowa game and looking ahead to Ohio St. What happened? They failed., blowing the game outright as a 10 point favorite. Then they shit all over themselves despite outgaining Ohio St the next week. Then, with a bowl game on the line, they didn't even show up at Northwestern and stayed home for the holidays. This year, they embarrassed themselves against a Missouri team that now looks like a fraud, didn't even show up against Ohio St in the horseshoe, and were a disgrace to strategery in the Penn St game. Witness: At halftime, Illinois trails 7-3, having outgained PSU by almost 100 yards, but somehow(surprise) did not capitalize on their chances. Time for adjustments, right? On consecutive drives to start the second half, here's what happened: Penn St drive: 4 yards, 3 yards, 15, 20, 14-fumble-Illinois ball.....Illinois 3 and out....PSU: 4,51,6,5,3-TD. Illinois: 3 and out. PSU: 20,6,7,2,16,7,7,9,4-TD....Illinois 3 and out. PSU: 21,12,13,18,15-TD. Game over. Nice halftime adjustments, assholes!!Keep in mind that Penn St couldn't run on Syracuse or Temple previously, yet they had 3 guys either get 100 yards rushing or come close. In a nutshell, Illinois can't stop the run, they can't stop the pass, they can't run effectively anymore, they can't convert third downs, their coach is a moron, their assistant coaches are imbeclies, their players are idiots(notice the progression of the clinical phases) and all of them lack character. Hey, they even switched Qbs to a kid who can't hold on to the ball, so they'll have the turnover thing figured out as well. MSU has the edge in every conceivable matchup in this one to boot. It's the easiest call of the year thus far. Sorry for the ramble.
2. Miami(OH) +19 @Northwestern: The Cats got a nice win/cover last week at Purdue, but now they are in a position in which they seldom excel, and that's as a big favorite. They found themselves in that spot earlier this year against an Eastern Michigan team that deserved to be dogged that much, and they barely squeaked out a win. They have actually lost games like this in the past. Now, having said that, it will be a tall order for Miami, who has looked as bad as anybody in the nation at times this year. But they are showing improvement, especially on offense, and they made a switch to a new QB a couple weeks ago and have been effective in the passing game since. Last week, they gained some confidence by hanging with Cincy, so I think they are in a good spot here. They also catch the Cats between Big Ten road games, which is always a tall order motivation-wise. NW has struggled against the pass this year, so I think they'l have to score a lot to cover this number. If they do it, good for them, because they could use a laugher, but I just don't see it. They aren't wired that way, and Miami is getting better.
3. @Tennessee -1 v Georgia: Georgia is the overwhleming public favorite in this game because everybody rightly thinks that Jonathan Crompton is an absolute mess of a quarterback. They are right, but Georgia has pretty much shown themselves to be a very flawed team themselves. Defensively, they are lacking, both in schemes and apparently talent or gumption. Tennessee, despite some losses, still views themselves rather positively, and you won't have the impatient fan base element for this one. It's a rivalry game, so the fans will be lubed up and providing a good homefield atmosphere. Tennessee's defense remains solid, much better than Georgia's, and despite Crompton's issues, Tennesse's offense is statistically about the same as Georgia's and boasts a much better running game. I just think Tennessee is going to ambush Georgia, especially if the Dawgs are feeling sorry for themselves about the game they blew last week. Did I mention that 69% of the public is on Georgia?
4. Boston College +14(buy it) @Virginia Tech: Two weeks ago I would never recommend BC on the road in a hostile environment, since the last iteration of their road offense resulted in about 4 positive plays all day at Clemson. However, they have gotten themselves on track with a QB switch to the at least competent Dave Shinskie, and their defense remains pretty salty. Vt is absolutely living off the Miami massacre in the monsoon(nice alliteration, eh??). Last week, predictably, Duke gave them all they could handle.Now BC comes in as a 2TD dog. At this point, you'd have to make BC at least a reasonable favorite to win their side of the ACC, and VT is a two TD favorite over them.?? Maybe if VT was explosive on offense or something, but save a ton of breaks or multiple special team scores, I don't think the personnel on these teams would indicate a strong likelihood of a blowout. I'll take the points here.
5. Indiana +7 @Virginia: Hate to get back on the horse with the Hoosiers, but this is too attractive to pass up. Virginia was certainly underrated coming in to last week. However, now they go from being the nation's laughingstock to a 7 point favorite over a decent BCS team in one week? Really? I know Indiana on the road is risky proposition, but Virginia's offense remains among the worst in division 1, and IU's defense has not been bad at all this year, especially in sacks and tackles for loss, which is a big weakness for Virginia. On a neutral site, I can't say that I would make Virginia a favorite over IU, so a full TD is something I'll have to jump on here. UVA is probably a solid play as a dog in most cases, but teams like this are not supposed to be full TD favorites.
6. Wisconsin +16 1/2 @Ohio St: If you see it at 16 1/2, I would buy it up to 17. I understand some of the trepidation toward taking Wisconsin here, since the Badgers defense has not been very good, and this is a second of back to back roadies, which is always tough. Having said that, I would have pegged this line closer to 10 or 11 than bordering on 17. The truth is that Wisconsin's offense has been very good this year, and has shown good balance, which is a sign of sustainability in a tough environment. I happen to think that John Clay will be able to run on anyone this year. Their passing game under Tolzien has been good, and their shortcomings on defense are mostly covering downfield passes. For whatever reason, Jim Tressel generally chooses not to beat teams that way, so they probably match up better with Ohio St's offense than they did against other teams. Wisconsin has proven itself to be a pretty solid squad, and even if they fall behind by 20+, they have the offense to grab a backdoor if it comes to that. Another thing to ponder: Only 2 weeks ago Illinois was catching only 14 to Ohio St. Now Wisconsin is getting almost 17?? Not computing.
7. Florida -7 1/2 @LSU: Even if Tebow sits, this LSU team as constructed under Les Miles cannot compete with this Florida team if it plays well. Florida is tops in the country or close to it in every possible statistical category, both offensively and defensively. LSU is a total sham. They suck on their offensive line, their defense is overrated and passable only in the secondary. They've underachieved their way to a 5-0 start, but they should probably have 2 losses already. I don't want to hear about the 32 in a row at night in Baton Rouge or whatever, LSU's offense is going to have to play with poise and gumption and Jordan Jefferson will have to excel against this Florida defense for LSU to compete and that is just not going to happen. Throw in a big play or 3 from Florida, and you have the recipe for a lot of drunk cajuns feeling sorry for themselves by about the 8 minute mark of the second quarter. I think this is the game Urban Meyer has had circled for his guys, and they come out and play like everyone expected they would this year. Monumental coaching mismatch here as well, as the cameras will be alternating shots of a confused looking Les Miles with drool rolling down his chin while Urban Meyer nods approvingly at the proceedings. Don't forget how bad LSU got whipsawed last year in Gainesville. We might see Act II.
8. Alabama -4 1/2 @Ole Miss: I was a believer in Ole Miss last year and in the bowl season, and in the preseason musings, but they just have not shown enough here in the early going to suggest that they can hang with a top notch team like Bama, even at home. Ole Miss's results thus far have been underwhelming, while Bama's have been overwhleming, and you can say that the Tide's schedule has been significantly better than Ole Miss's thus far.It's becoming clear that their Ole Miss's niche is as the underdog that people aren't looking for, and not the hunted that everyone expects greatness from. They have a nice group of players, and Houstion Nutt is a solid coach, but they just aren't anywhere near as good as Alabama. Jevan Snead is terribly overrated. The Rebels are ranked 54th in passing efficiciency and Bama sports what is probably the best defense in the country. I just don't see how Ole Miss is going to be able to move the ball consistently on Alabama, and Bama has shown enough on offense (ranked 12th overall with a great run/pass mix) to indicate an ability to put up enough points to cover this one. QB Greg McElroy has been very good, and their running game has been solid as well. They are better on the perimeter than Ole Miss as well. Bama is just a class above Ole Miss right now. Later on, the Rebels might be a sensible play in the upcoming weeks especially after people start dogging them, but not now.
9. UCLA +3 1/2 v Oregon: Talk about a team that's due for a clunker. Oregon certainly fits the bill. They've looked great the past two weeks, but now they have to play on the road against a legitimately good defense. We've seen Oregon look positively lost on offense before, and I think we'll see it again. UCLA had a disappointing showing last week at Stanford, and coach Neuheisel was criticized for being to conservative in that game. Well, I'll tell you what: If I had Senor Turnover himself, Kevin Craft playing QB for me, I'd have fashioned the same game plan. Now he has his regular guy (Kevin Prince) back in there this week, so they can run the offense. Good for them too, because both of Oregon's corners are out with injury, and the word is that the Ducks are very thin back there to begin with. This one opened at 6 1/2 until the heavies bet it down to 3 1/2. I'm holding off, hoping some lemming Duck money will come in as gametime approaches, but I'll be happy with 3 1/2, as I think UCLA takes this one outright.
10. TCU -10 @Air Force: Lots of road teams this week I guess. This is not generally a spot I like, with a road team laying to a service academy, but the matchup is too perfect in this one. Air Force has been competent enough this year in the way of scoreboard results, but they have been uncharacteristically feeble on offense pretty much all year save the opening week shit kicking of whatever 1-AA school they played. Note: Against Minnesota, they moved the ball ok, but scored only 13 against a below average defense. In their last two games, they nothced only 12 first downs aand scored zero offensive touchdowns against San Diego St (!!!) and didn't score an offensive TD against navy last week. Now they face one of the most dominant defenses in the country in TCU, who you absolutely do not run on. QB Jefferson and RB Clark are both banged up with bad ankles. when they were both healthy last year, TCU held them to 7 first downs while being outgained 504-160. I'd suggest that TCU's offense is even better than last year, and you can say that Air Force's is certainly worse than last year based on the injuries and the recent results against far inferior defenses. I like the Falcons a lot, but this is a bad bad matchup for them, even if it snows in Colorado Springs on Saturday, which it might.
11. Arizona -4 @Washington: When I quote public betting percentages, I get those percentages from Wagerline. It's a good source because any Joe Schmo can log in there for free and enter the contests that they have every week, so you generally get a very significant number of people who make picks on there. In all the years I've used this site, for whatever reason, you never see a home underdog getting any more than about 50% of the public favor. You'll see road underdogs sometimes, because those are occasionally good teams, but almost never home dogs. This week, Washington is getting 62% of the public support. It's actually the 4th most popular home team this week. This is because Washington has had two very public games this year, the win over USC, and their game last week against ND in which they almost pulled out a win. Now they return home for a less sexy game with Arizona. Looking at this game on paper, I can see why Arizona is favored. Washington is having all kinds of problems defensively, ranked 112th against the run, while Arizona has run it extremely well this year. Overall, Washington's defense is ranked 117th, believe it or not. It must be pointed out that they've played some solid offensive squads this year, but 117th out of 120 speaks for itself. On the other side of the ball, Arizona has solid advantages as well. This looks like a game that the public gets crushed.
12. Stanford +1 @Oregon St: Apparently there are plenty of people who are not yet sold on Stanford. Don't count me among those people because I am. This is a solid squad. I can see, however, why you'd make Oregon St a favorite here. Corvalis is a tough place to play, the Beavs are a well coached squad most of the time, and Stanford has not been a juggernaut in recent years. Having said that, Stanford is the better team here. They have good balance on the offensive side of the ball and have held their own on defense. Oregon St, on the other hand is somewhat limited offensively, and extremely reliant on the Rodgers brothers for their offensive production. Sean Canfield is an ok quarterback, but he seldom goes downfield, and they have to convert third downs to keep drives alive. They'll be facing an aggressive defense this week, so if they lose yardage, it's going to be tough for them. I also see a big advantage in the running game for Stanford. If this game was being played on a nuetral field, by virtue of the stats and performances so far this year, I would make Stanford about a 6-7 point favorite. Corvalis is tough, but I hear it's not sold out. It certainly isn't worth 7-8 points of HFA.
13 @SMU +7 v East Carolina: SMU has quietly been improving themselves to the point where they are competing with legitimate squads. They were in their game at TCU last week until late, and have gone on the road and won what should have been two games. Their achilles heel is their defense and Bo Levi Mitchell's addiction to throwing it to the other team, but I think they have a good shot of playing well this week against ECU. First of all, ECU is the 102nd ranked offense in the country, and they are equally pedestrian in both phases. SMu actually ranks 68th in the country in total defense(yards per play), so that's not even that bad, and they've picked off 12 balls to boot, which actually leads the nation. Big problems for SMU potentially since ECU is opportunitic on defense, but these teams are statistically about even, maybe even a slight edge to SMU. Since SMU is getting a TD and they're at home, there's definite value there.
Others: Idaho should probably be favored at San Jose St based on their performance so far this year. They're actually getting 4. however, SJSU's stats are skewed because they've played Stanford, USC and Utah this year, so they're moving down in class. That's my only hesitation. I'll be taking the points.....Maryland is getting double digits at Wake, and we all know Wake is not a good significant favorite. They've been improving in that role, however. 12 is still too many in my opinion, though, even considering how good Riley Skinner has been lately....I like Colorado St a lot this week. They are getting 7 at home against what I think is an overrated team in Utah. CSU is throwing the ball pretty well, so they should be able to put up points, and it looks like a possible weather issue up there this weekend, which generally favors the home team......Also don't think Wyoming should be favored by 10 against anyone. New Mexico is a good candidate however, based on their overall douchebaggery this year, but they're getting better. I wouldn't be surprised if Locksley figured out a way to be in that one until the end....if the UCONN/ PITT spread hadn't fallen from 8 to 6 1/2 I would be in the foxhole with the Huskies this week. Statistcally it's pretty close, and Pitt generally doesn't enjoy much of a home field advantage at heinz Field. if I can get it at more than 7, I'll be hammering it. it would have been a musing at 8 or more....I think Purdue is the better team in their tilt with Minnesota. They can't be trusted though at such a short number(3) because they haven't figured out how to avoid giftwrapping victories for the other team. I'll be taking the points with them, though.
That's it for this week. Mike and I will be Sham-Pain to witness the continuing downward spiral that is Ron Zook's coaching career. Go Crying Ill-lie-and-whine!!
Some observations: How about them St Louis Cardinals? I quit caring about baseball after I watched Alfonso Soriano flail at a triple A slider for 400th time this year sometime in mid August, but seeing what happened to them last night was nothing short of spectacular. Here's a franchise that hasn't had an ounce of bad luck on the field in about 17 years, and they had a Brant Brown moment last night in the most important game they've played in 3 years. I wish I could have been in a bar in St Louis at that moment, as all these gorp Cardinal fans were clutching their teddy bears rooting their boys on to a win, only to see them all gasp in horror as the most recent Mr Perfect, Matt Holiday botched a routine fly that would have ended the game. Here's a big middle finger and a Lloyd Christmas style HAHAHAHAHA from the cold, cold evil heart of a Cubs fan who is absolutely beside himself in glee at your once in a lifetime misfortune. With my luck they'll tear off three in a row against all odds. God, I hope not.
Quickly: I was thinking about playing Kentucky +12 at South Carolina, but decided against it becasue Kentucky starting CBs(both) were out and the line dropped to 9 1/2, but when I was looking at that game, I came across following exchange between a reporter and OBC, regarding the previously mentioned corners:
Reporter: "Coach Brooks said that both of the corners are very doubtful and probably won't play this week"
OBC: "Boy, I sure hope they don't. That would be great."
Not sure why, but I just found that to be hillarious. I'll probably bet on Kentucky anyway.
1. Michigan St -3 1/2 @ Illinois: There are some smart handicappers who are outsmarting themselves in this one. It's not that difficult: Bet against teams who have questionable character and horrendous coaching when that team is playing against a team in the same talent stratosphere. MSU qualifies. Don't talk about a tough letdown situation, or a team that has talent and is seeing a drop in class, etc. The question is simple: Will MSU desire to win the game? Since they will be making the trip we can only assume the answer is yes. So bet on them. The last thing I feel like doing right now is selling all of you on the notion that Ron Zook's staff is among the worst in Division 1, and certainly worst of any BCS conference school, but i feel I must. When they beat Iowa last year, they reached a point when they had to figure out where the program was going, i.e., taking the next step. If they sacked up and finished strong, they would go to a bowl for the second year in a row, and they would have turned a corner. Here's what has happened since:They faced a tough coaching/motivation situation playing Western Michigan in Detroit off the Iowa game and looking ahead to Ohio St. What happened? They failed., blowing the game outright as a 10 point favorite. Then they shit all over themselves despite outgaining Ohio St the next week. Then, with a bowl game on the line, they didn't even show up at Northwestern and stayed home for the holidays. This year, they embarrassed themselves against a Missouri team that now looks like a fraud, didn't even show up against Ohio St in the horseshoe, and were a disgrace to strategery in the Penn St game. Witness: At halftime, Illinois trails 7-3, having outgained PSU by almost 100 yards, but somehow(surprise) did not capitalize on their chances. Time for adjustments, right? On consecutive drives to start the second half, here's what happened: Penn St drive: 4 yards, 3 yards, 15, 20, 14-fumble-Illinois ball.....Illinois 3 and out....PSU: 4,51,6,5,3-TD. Illinois: 3 and out. PSU: 20,6,7,2,16,7,7,9,4-TD....Illinois 3 and out. PSU: 21,12,13,18,15-TD. Game over. Nice halftime adjustments, assholes!!Keep in mind that Penn St couldn't run on Syracuse or Temple previously, yet they had 3 guys either get 100 yards rushing or come close. In a nutshell, Illinois can't stop the run, they can't stop the pass, they can't run effectively anymore, they can't convert third downs, their coach is a moron, their assistant coaches are imbeclies, their players are idiots(notice the progression of the clinical phases) and all of them lack character. Hey, they even switched Qbs to a kid who can't hold on to the ball, so they'll have the turnover thing figured out as well. MSU has the edge in every conceivable matchup in this one to boot. It's the easiest call of the year thus far. Sorry for the ramble.
2. Miami(OH) +19 @Northwestern: The Cats got a nice win/cover last week at Purdue, but now they are in a position in which they seldom excel, and that's as a big favorite. They found themselves in that spot earlier this year against an Eastern Michigan team that deserved to be dogged that much, and they barely squeaked out a win. They have actually lost games like this in the past. Now, having said that, it will be a tall order for Miami, who has looked as bad as anybody in the nation at times this year. But they are showing improvement, especially on offense, and they made a switch to a new QB a couple weeks ago and have been effective in the passing game since. Last week, they gained some confidence by hanging with Cincy, so I think they are in a good spot here. They also catch the Cats between Big Ten road games, which is always a tall order motivation-wise. NW has struggled against the pass this year, so I think they'l have to score a lot to cover this number. If they do it, good for them, because they could use a laugher, but I just don't see it. They aren't wired that way, and Miami is getting better.
3. @Tennessee -1 v Georgia: Georgia is the overwhleming public favorite in this game because everybody rightly thinks that Jonathan Crompton is an absolute mess of a quarterback. They are right, but Georgia has pretty much shown themselves to be a very flawed team themselves. Defensively, they are lacking, both in schemes and apparently talent or gumption. Tennessee, despite some losses, still views themselves rather positively, and you won't have the impatient fan base element for this one. It's a rivalry game, so the fans will be lubed up and providing a good homefield atmosphere. Tennessee's defense remains solid, much better than Georgia's, and despite Crompton's issues, Tennesse's offense is statistically about the same as Georgia's and boasts a much better running game. I just think Tennessee is going to ambush Georgia, especially if the Dawgs are feeling sorry for themselves about the game they blew last week. Did I mention that 69% of the public is on Georgia?
4. Boston College +14(buy it) @Virginia Tech: Two weeks ago I would never recommend BC on the road in a hostile environment, since the last iteration of their road offense resulted in about 4 positive plays all day at Clemson. However, they have gotten themselves on track with a QB switch to the at least competent Dave Shinskie, and their defense remains pretty salty. Vt is absolutely living off the Miami massacre in the monsoon(nice alliteration, eh??). Last week, predictably, Duke gave them all they could handle.Now BC comes in as a 2TD dog. At this point, you'd have to make BC at least a reasonable favorite to win their side of the ACC, and VT is a two TD favorite over them.?? Maybe if VT was explosive on offense or something, but save a ton of breaks or multiple special team scores, I don't think the personnel on these teams would indicate a strong likelihood of a blowout. I'll take the points here.
5. Indiana +7 @Virginia: Hate to get back on the horse with the Hoosiers, but this is too attractive to pass up. Virginia was certainly underrated coming in to last week. However, now they go from being the nation's laughingstock to a 7 point favorite over a decent BCS team in one week? Really? I know Indiana on the road is risky proposition, but Virginia's offense remains among the worst in division 1, and IU's defense has not been bad at all this year, especially in sacks and tackles for loss, which is a big weakness for Virginia. On a neutral site, I can't say that I would make Virginia a favorite over IU, so a full TD is something I'll have to jump on here. UVA is probably a solid play as a dog in most cases, but teams like this are not supposed to be full TD favorites.
6. Wisconsin +16 1/2 @Ohio St: If you see it at 16 1/2, I would buy it up to 17. I understand some of the trepidation toward taking Wisconsin here, since the Badgers defense has not been very good, and this is a second of back to back roadies, which is always tough. Having said that, I would have pegged this line closer to 10 or 11 than bordering on 17. The truth is that Wisconsin's offense has been very good this year, and has shown good balance, which is a sign of sustainability in a tough environment. I happen to think that John Clay will be able to run on anyone this year. Their passing game under Tolzien has been good, and their shortcomings on defense are mostly covering downfield passes. For whatever reason, Jim Tressel generally chooses not to beat teams that way, so they probably match up better with Ohio St's offense than they did against other teams. Wisconsin has proven itself to be a pretty solid squad, and even if they fall behind by 20+, they have the offense to grab a backdoor if it comes to that. Another thing to ponder: Only 2 weeks ago Illinois was catching only 14 to Ohio St. Now Wisconsin is getting almost 17?? Not computing.
7. Florida -7 1/2 @LSU: Even if Tebow sits, this LSU team as constructed under Les Miles cannot compete with this Florida team if it plays well. Florida is tops in the country or close to it in every possible statistical category, both offensively and defensively. LSU is a total sham. They suck on their offensive line, their defense is overrated and passable only in the secondary. They've underachieved their way to a 5-0 start, but they should probably have 2 losses already. I don't want to hear about the 32 in a row at night in Baton Rouge or whatever, LSU's offense is going to have to play with poise and gumption and Jordan Jefferson will have to excel against this Florida defense for LSU to compete and that is just not going to happen. Throw in a big play or 3 from Florida, and you have the recipe for a lot of drunk cajuns feeling sorry for themselves by about the 8 minute mark of the second quarter. I think this is the game Urban Meyer has had circled for his guys, and they come out and play like everyone expected they would this year. Monumental coaching mismatch here as well, as the cameras will be alternating shots of a confused looking Les Miles with drool rolling down his chin while Urban Meyer nods approvingly at the proceedings. Don't forget how bad LSU got whipsawed last year in Gainesville. We might see Act II.
8. Alabama -4 1/2 @Ole Miss: I was a believer in Ole Miss last year and in the bowl season, and in the preseason musings, but they just have not shown enough here in the early going to suggest that they can hang with a top notch team like Bama, even at home. Ole Miss's results thus far have been underwhelming, while Bama's have been overwhleming, and you can say that the Tide's schedule has been significantly better than Ole Miss's thus far.It's becoming clear that their Ole Miss's niche is as the underdog that people aren't looking for, and not the hunted that everyone expects greatness from. They have a nice group of players, and Houstion Nutt is a solid coach, but they just aren't anywhere near as good as Alabama. Jevan Snead is terribly overrated. The Rebels are ranked 54th in passing efficiciency and Bama sports what is probably the best defense in the country. I just don't see how Ole Miss is going to be able to move the ball consistently on Alabama, and Bama has shown enough on offense (ranked 12th overall with a great run/pass mix) to indicate an ability to put up enough points to cover this one. QB Greg McElroy has been very good, and their running game has been solid as well. They are better on the perimeter than Ole Miss as well. Bama is just a class above Ole Miss right now. Later on, the Rebels might be a sensible play in the upcoming weeks especially after people start dogging them, but not now.
9. UCLA +3 1/2 v Oregon: Talk about a team that's due for a clunker. Oregon certainly fits the bill. They've looked great the past two weeks, but now they have to play on the road against a legitimately good defense. We've seen Oregon look positively lost on offense before, and I think we'll see it again. UCLA had a disappointing showing last week at Stanford, and coach Neuheisel was criticized for being to conservative in that game. Well, I'll tell you what: If I had Senor Turnover himself, Kevin Craft playing QB for me, I'd have fashioned the same game plan. Now he has his regular guy (Kevin Prince) back in there this week, so they can run the offense. Good for them too, because both of Oregon's corners are out with injury, and the word is that the Ducks are very thin back there to begin with. This one opened at 6 1/2 until the heavies bet it down to 3 1/2. I'm holding off, hoping some lemming Duck money will come in as gametime approaches, but I'll be happy with 3 1/2, as I think UCLA takes this one outright.
10. TCU -10 @Air Force: Lots of road teams this week I guess. This is not generally a spot I like, with a road team laying to a service academy, but the matchup is too perfect in this one. Air Force has been competent enough this year in the way of scoreboard results, but they have been uncharacteristically feeble on offense pretty much all year save the opening week shit kicking of whatever 1-AA school they played. Note: Against Minnesota, they moved the ball ok, but scored only 13 against a below average defense. In their last two games, they nothced only 12 first downs aand scored zero offensive touchdowns against San Diego St (!!!) and didn't score an offensive TD against navy last week. Now they face one of the most dominant defenses in the country in TCU, who you absolutely do not run on. QB Jefferson and RB Clark are both banged up with bad ankles. when they were both healthy last year, TCU held them to 7 first downs while being outgained 504-160. I'd suggest that TCU's offense is even better than last year, and you can say that Air Force's is certainly worse than last year based on the injuries and the recent results against far inferior defenses. I like the Falcons a lot, but this is a bad bad matchup for them, even if it snows in Colorado Springs on Saturday, which it might.
11. Arizona -4 @Washington: When I quote public betting percentages, I get those percentages from Wagerline. It's a good source because any Joe Schmo can log in there for free and enter the contests that they have every week, so you generally get a very significant number of people who make picks on there. In all the years I've used this site, for whatever reason, you never see a home underdog getting any more than about 50% of the public favor. You'll see road underdogs sometimes, because those are occasionally good teams, but almost never home dogs. This week, Washington is getting 62% of the public support. It's actually the 4th most popular home team this week. This is because Washington has had two very public games this year, the win over USC, and their game last week against ND in which they almost pulled out a win. Now they return home for a less sexy game with Arizona. Looking at this game on paper, I can see why Arizona is favored. Washington is having all kinds of problems defensively, ranked 112th against the run, while Arizona has run it extremely well this year. Overall, Washington's defense is ranked 117th, believe it or not. It must be pointed out that they've played some solid offensive squads this year, but 117th out of 120 speaks for itself. On the other side of the ball, Arizona has solid advantages as well. This looks like a game that the public gets crushed.
12. Stanford +1 @Oregon St: Apparently there are plenty of people who are not yet sold on Stanford. Don't count me among those people because I am. This is a solid squad. I can see, however, why you'd make Oregon St a favorite here. Corvalis is a tough place to play, the Beavs are a well coached squad most of the time, and Stanford has not been a juggernaut in recent years. Having said that, Stanford is the better team here. They have good balance on the offensive side of the ball and have held their own on defense. Oregon St, on the other hand is somewhat limited offensively, and extremely reliant on the Rodgers brothers for their offensive production. Sean Canfield is an ok quarterback, but he seldom goes downfield, and they have to convert third downs to keep drives alive. They'll be facing an aggressive defense this week, so if they lose yardage, it's going to be tough for them. I also see a big advantage in the running game for Stanford. If this game was being played on a nuetral field, by virtue of the stats and performances so far this year, I would make Stanford about a 6-7 point favorite. Corvalis is tough, but I hear it's not sold out. It certainly isn't worth 7-8 points of HFA.
13 @SMU +7 v East Carolina: SMU has quietly been improving themselves to the point where they are competing with legitimate squads. They were in their game at TCU last week until late, and have gone on the road and won what should have been two games. Their achilles heel is their defense and Bo Levi Mitchell's addiction to throwing it to the other team, but I think they have a good shot of playing well this week against ECU. First of all, ECU is the 102nd ranked offense in the country, and they are equally pedestrian in both phases. SMu actually ranks 68th in the country in total defense(yards per play), so that's not even that bad, and they've picked off 12 balls to boot, which actually leads the nation. Big problems for SMU potentially since ECU is opportunitic on defense, but these teams are statistically about even, maybe even a slight edge to SMU. Since SMU is getting a TD and they're at home, there's definite value there.
Others: Idaho should probably be favored at San Jose St based on their performance so far this year. They're actually getting 4. however, SJSU's stats are skewed because they've played Stanford, USC and Utah this year, so they're moving down in class. That's my only hesitation. I'll be taking the points.....Maryland is getting double digits at Wake, and we all know Wake is not a good significant favorite. They've been improving in that role, however. 12 is still too many in my opinion, though, even considering how good Riley Skinner has been lately....I like Colorado St a lot this week. They are getting 7 at home against what I think is an overrated team in Utah. CSU is throwing the ball pretty well, so they should be able to put up points, and it looks like a possible weather issue up there this weekend, which generally favors the home team......Also don't think Wyoming should be favored by 10 against anyone. New Mexico is a good candidate however, based on their overall douchebaggery this year, but they're getting better. I wouldn't be surprised if Locksley figured out a way to be in that one until the end....if the UCONN/ PITT spread hadn't fallen from 8 to 6 1/2 I would be in the foxhole with the Huskies this week. Statistcally it's pretty close, and Pitt generally doesn't enjoy much of a home field advantage at heinz Field. if I can get it at more than 7, I'll be hammering it. it would have been a musing at 8 or more....I think Purdue is the better team in their tilt with Minnesota. They can't be trusted though at such a short number(3) because they haven't figured out how to avoid giftwrapping victories for the other team. I'll be taking the points with them, though.
That's it for this week. Mike and I will be Sham-Pain to witness the continuing downward spiral that is Ron Zook's coaching career. Go Crying Ill-lie-and-whine!!
Week 6 Musings
Wow...I am trying to cut and paste this week's entry, and I cannot get this thing to workl? Since when is cutting and pasting something so difficult? I click on edit, copy the material, go to this area, click on paste, and the cursor disappears. Nothing happens. i am not about to write this whole thing again. I'll get it figured out.
Saturday, October 3, 2009
Week 5 Musings
It was nice to get back to some normalcy last week, as the numbered musings went 8-3. Coming in to this week, the record for the year is 20-26. Well, at least we've passed the 40% plateau. Speaking of normalcy, at least lately, the musings are off to an 0-1 start this week after Hawaii's fetal position act Wednesday night. There's always danger in backing Hawaii at the end of a long trip, and I fell victim to the Rainbows occasional gutlessness in that spot. Basically, they collectively said, "Hey, we're a 7-5/6-6 team. We're bound to lose some games, and his one looks like one of them.We're on our third road game in a row. We just want to get the hell out of here and get back on the island, so let's just chalk this one up as one of our losses and leave." Once QB Alexander got his bell rung, it was all she wrote.
Can we talk about the NFL for a second? I found myself perusing the week 4 schedule and came to the following conclusion: The NFL sucks ass, and it sucks with great velocity. I counted 3 games that I have any interest at all in watching. Ii've also come up with the following list of teams who I would classify as terrible: Rams, Browns, Bucs,Chiefs, Dolphins, Redskins, Lions, Bills, Raiders, Broncos(I don't care if they're 3-0), Panthers, Jaguars, Bengals, and Seahawks. That's 14 teams, or 43% of the league, and I'm probably being too nice to the Texans and Cardinals. When is the country going to wake up and realize that they are being brainwashed by the NFL office and it's advertisers about this horseshit league? It is NOT fun to watch 14 blocks of commercials per hour. It's not fun to watch a team dump off a pass 2 yards downfield on 4th and 13 in the final minute when they're down 6. It's NOT fun to watch Byron Leftwich play quarterback and complete 7 passes for 21 yards. Anybody planning on filling the beer commerical steroptype and donning a jersey, grabbing the chips and getting a good spot on the couch with your fat loser buddies and token black friend for the Skins/Bucs? How about 49ers/Rams? Browns/Bengals? Bills/Dolphins? I'm a Bears fan, and I don't think I can sit through the entire Bears Lions game. Maybe about a quarter and a half. Remember, it's only week 4, and already, 75% of the NFL schedule is full of games that only fantasy cretins could ever care about. Let's just say I prefer college.
One other thing: West Virginia's uniforms tonight have confirmed what I had suspected: There's a competition on who in college football can come up with the most hideous uniforms. The more effeminate the better. First it was Oregon with their weekly abominations. Then Cal showed up with the Gold "tops"(can't call them jerseys) with the bear scratches on them. Then Clemson went with an all purple look which looked like a Halloween costume gone bad when you added the Orange helmets. Then Georgia ditched the best home jerseys in the business and went to a pointless black that looked like a practice jersey. Now we see West Virginia in the all yellow that copnjures up thoughts of bar toilet after 17 people were either too lazy or too replused to flush. Keep an eye out for Illinois and a possible all Orange combo, since they'll be looking for new ways to embarrass themselves when their clueless play on the field isn't enough.
2. Utah St +24 @BYU(friday): Buy this up if you have to, since 24 is a key number. Utah St is much improved this year, as they have joined Idaho in their escape from the "unbettable list". Formerly long time residents of the sub 100's in total offense rankings, they find themselves sitting at #13 nationally in total offense, racking up 6.7 yards per snap on offense, better than the likes of Houston, Notre Dame, Texas, Kansas, Arkansas, Oklahoma St, etc. This is mostly due to their knack for cracking off big plays, which has happened with regularity regardless of oppnent, be it Southern Utah or Utah or Texas A&M. On the flipside, BYU has been just ok on defense, as they gave up yards in bunches to Colorado St last week and rank only 71st against the run. Utah St gets up to play this game, and they seldom, if ever get an inspired effort from BYU, who has bigger fish to fry, as their conference season starts in earnest next week. I think Utah St will be able to score here, so 24 is a lot.
3. Wisconsin +3 @Minnesota: One of the things you'd have predicted at the beginning of the season was that Wisconsin would have a hard time throwing the ball. Then in fall camp, when the starter from last year stunk so much that they benched him, you'd probably be emboldened in your chiding of their passing offense. In all actuality, though, their pass offense has been effective(12th nationally against decent defensive squads like NIU and Fresno), and Minnesota, as usual, struggles to stop the pass. I can see an edge to Wisconsin when they have the ball, and pretty much a stalemate when Minnesota has the ball. Given Wisconsin's domination of this series and the fact that the spread has moved to a FG, I'm cdefinitely liking the Badgers.
4. @Michigan St -3 v Michigan: One thing you can be sure of: Michigan will get Michigan St's best shot in this one. The Spartans have dropped three in a row, and you can make a case that they were caught in a terrible look ahead spot last week in Madison. Michigan makes their first foray on the road in this one, so we'll see how Tate Forcier fares in a hostile environment. These two teams are pretty similar offensively, but I think Michigan's defense might be exposed a little more readily than MSU's defense in this one. This one is circled on Mark Dantonio's calendar, and I'm sure he took notes on Indiana's ability to move the ball at will on that defense. I place a lot of meaning on freshman QB's making their first road trip, and even without the HFA, Michigan St looks like a stronger team at this point, despite the records.
5. @UL-Monroe -6 v Florida International: I hate to recommend this dog of a game, but this one looks like it was mis-lined. It actually came out at -2 and has rightly moved up to -6. Louisiana Monroe has not been bad this year, while FIU is helpless on both sides of the ball. In every facet of the game, you can point to a huge edge for Lou-Mon. They're balanced and can take care of things both in the passing game as well as the run game. FIU is equally putrid against both...they're still trying to figure things out.
6. Washington +12 1/2 @Notre Dame: This one used to be at 14, a number I'd really prefer here, but I'll take double digits to be honest. It's true that the matchup between ND's passing game and UW's inability to stop it will casuse problems for the Huskies, but I am not sure of the status of Jimmy Claussen and Armando Allen. Even if those two do play, the loss of Michael Floyd is very profound. The one thing Notre Dame has to deal with at home is the other team's excitement in coming to play them in South Bend. You can predict a solid performance from UW in that regard. Also, I am not comfortable laying substantial points with a defense that has struggled(103rd in total D), and is facing a competent QB. I'm also pretty sold on Sarkisian, who has had a lot of success against ND in the past and has the added assist of coming off a humbling performance against Stanford that likely refocused his kids this week. Another chance for them to show they belong. Based on Notre Dame's penchant for playing down to the competition, I think UW has a fighter's chance of pulling the upset if they get a couple bounces.
7 Georgia Tech +5 1/2 @Mississippi St: I loved the effort from MSU last week, but they faced a team in LSU that appears to be about the most vulnerable to spot disadvantages as you can find in the country. This week the Bulldogs have to strap it on again against a good team, coming off the heartbreak of letting LSU off the hook in their best chance to beat them in years. To give two off the charts performances two weeks in a row is a bit much to ask in my opinion. It takes total effort and concentration to play Ga Tech, and I think they might be lacking in that area this week. Georgia Tech on the other hand is coming off a confidence building performance against North Carolina, which they really needed. The option looked crisp, and they finally got White and Dwyer going. I think the chances are good that they continue that this week. GT's weakness is pass defense, and Mississippi St doesn't have the offense to exploit it. It's a bad matchup for the Dogs and a deadful spot to boot.
8. @Indiana +17 1/2 v Ohio St: I was very skeptical of Indiana's offense coming into the year, but after lookng at them vs michigan, they've got some players on that offense. the QB is pretty solid, the RB has some explosion, and they've got a couple nice pieces at receiver. In addition, they have a big, experienced offensive line that appears to be able to hold it's own against anyone. Their defense is also better than normal IU standards, with two DE's that can rush the passer and some playmakers in the secondary. Ohio St, I'm sure, isn't lacking for confidence, what with the bitch slapping they gave Illinois last week. They'll also have a slew of red clad, red faced yahoos in Bloomington making the trip from all points in Ohio. However, taking away the controlled scrimmage they had last week, they haven't really run the ball all that well, and IU is ranked 14th against the run. OSU will definitely have to bring it's A game in order to trigger a rout, and it's still too early in the season for IU to give up. Even if they fall behind, IU's offense is plenty capable of a late TD for a backdoor cover. It wouldn't shock me if IU has a shot at the outright win late in the 4th.
9. @Syracuse +7(buy it) v South Florida: Letdown spot for South Florida here. It was a very impressive effort against a schizophrenic Florida St team last week, but it was more about the spot for FSU than anything. Now South Florida has to travel up to the Carrier Dome to play an improved Syracuse team. We'll see, I suppose just how imprioved they are offensively, since USF will provide a test, but Syracuse has proven to be no pushover, especially against the run, where they are ranked 15, despite playing the likes of Penn St on the road. taking a look at USF's offense, obviously Matt Groethe is out, so they are going with BJ whoever again, and if you take away the two big pass plays they had last week, which were both blown coverages, his line looks something like 6-19 for 65 yards. If Syracuse can get their offense going some, I like their chances to limit USF's offense, and this is obviously a letdown spot for USF in their second consecutive road game.
10 @Vanderbilt +10 v Ole Miss: Terrible sandwich spot for Ole Miss here, coming off the tough loss to South Carolina in which they showed nothing, and looking ahead to the big game with Alabama in Oxford next week. Vandy remains a stout defensive team, and I have been utterly unimpressed with Jevan Sneed thus far. If Ole Miss had shown some explosion on offense to date, this would be a tough one to pick, but I think this one will be a dogfight for the rebs from the snap of the ball. Vandy is lookng to make amends for that horseshit performance they put out there 2 weeks ago at home against Mississippi St. With the combination of the spot and Ole Miss's lack of traction on offense, I like Vandy's chances here.
11. Washington St +35 @Oregon: Ok, so now Oregon is good again, I guess. I know they put the ultimate beat down on cal, but it was a terrible spot for Cal, which I should have known last week, and now Oregon finds itself in a tough spot themselves coming off that emotional, perfect performance last week ahead of a trip to hated UCLA next week. Wazzou didn't embarrass themselves against USC last week with a true freshman at QB. If Jeremiah Masoli has suddenly learned how to throw, Oregon comes in with a renewed vigor to paste Washington St, and they wish to run it up on the Cougs, they MIGHT cover the 35. My guess is that they'll be happy to get out of there with a 34-14 victory and call it a day.
12. NC State +3(buy it)@Wake: Just lookng at the roles of these teams should have told you that i'd be on Nc St. The Pack is a fabulous dog, and Wake is horrendous as a favorite. matchup wise, Wake is struggling on defense as a completely inept BC offense had no problems moving the ball on them last week. Now they have Russell Wilson to deal with, who has found his stride again after a rough opening week performance against South Carolina. He lit up a pretty decent Pitt defense last week, and his 2 year running ratio is now 29TD/1 INT. Not bad. NC State also is having a nice year on the defensive side of the ball, giving up less than 2.5 yards per carry and ranking 7th on overall yards per play. This is also one of ther rare cases where Wake coach Jim Grobe won't completely school his competition, as Tom O'Brien can hold his own. I obviously like NC State outright here, but if Wake wins, chances are it won't be more than a FG.
13. USC -4 @Cal: I think you're going to see USC's best performance of the year in this game. Even if you throw out their performance last week, I think I overestimated Cal's offense a bit. Best has now struggled to get going aside from a couple big runs in 3 games in a row, and Riley looks to be a tad overrated...their ranked 50th in passing offense, and that's against some pedestrian defenses. USC's defense is settling in, and they will probably have some renewed vigor because they have taken some criticism ove the past week due to back to back poor performances against the Washington teams. I think Cal might be a little further exposed in this one. If they jump off the mat and punch USC in the mouth, more power to them, but I'm not sure they have the manpower for it.
others: There is a threesome of games in the ACC in which I'm liking the dogs, and with this conference's track record the past couple of years I originally would have had them above, but I have some hesitation based on the lines coming down. Maryland is catching 13 1/2 at home against Clemson. I think Maryland might be better than they've shown, and Clemson has really struggled on offense, but that's been mostly against much better defenses than Maryland. I think 2 tds is too much, but I'm not ready to go all in on it, because Mmaryland has been downright rotten this year, and they are banged up to boot.... Virginia is catching 13 at UNC, which I'll be playing because Ii don't think UNC should be laying that much and UVA is another teanm that probably isn't as bad as they've looked,. I don't trust their Qb to hold onto the ball however, so I'm only going halfway on that one.....Va Tech is in a very tough letdown spot laying 17 at Duke. Under Cutcliffe, Duke is much more likely to make a game of this, but they are jsut as prone to giving up huge runs to Ryan Williams. 17 is a lot in this spot, however, and 80% of the public is lining up behind America's new darling. They are overrated again. Funny what one game in the rain can do.....Speaking of that, Miami is catching 7 1/2 against Oklahoma. I stuill am not sold that Oklahoma can score at the level they are accustomed, and I think they'll have a hard time keeping Miami off the board. Landry Jones has played nobody yet. Maybe he'll handle it well, but I think Miami will be looking for redemption in this one, and Oklahoma never plays well in South Florida.....Iowa is in the mother of all sandwich spots at home laying 22 to Arky St. Off Penn st with Michigan at home next week. Yeesh. Arky St is not very good, however......UCLA looks to be in a good spot catching 5 1/2 at Stanford, but they are starting Kevin Craft at QB due to injury. He's the guy that tossed 4 pick 6's in a game at Arizona St last year and personally set fire to my wallet, so I won't be letting him do that to me again.... Also leaning toward the Cats to cover 8 at Purdue with Purdue coming off a heartbreaker against ND. The Cats are good at rising up in spots like this, and Purdue is not a very good favorite historically in spots like this....That's it for now, hopefully everyone enjoys the weekend.
Can we talk about the NFL for a second? I found myself perusing the week 4 schedule and came to the following conclusion: The NFL sucks ass, and it sucks with great velocity. I counted 3 games that I have any interest at all in watching. Ii've also come up with the following list of teams who I would classify as terrible: Rams, Browns, Bucs,Chiefs, Dolphins, Redskins, Lions, Bills, Raiders, Broncos(I don't care if they're 3-0), Panthers, Jaguars, Bengals, and Seahawks. That's 14 teams, or 43% of the league, and I'm probably being too nice to the Texans and Cardinals. When is the country going to wake up and realize that they are being brainwashed by the NFL office and it's advertisers about this horseshit league? It is NOT fun to watch 14 blocks of commercials per hour. It's not fun to watch a team dump off a pass 2 yards downfield on 4th and 13 in the final minute when they're down 6. It's NOT fun to watch Byron Leftwich play quarterback and complete 7 passes for 21 yards. Anybody planning on filling the beer commerical steroptype and donning a jersey, grabbing the chips and getting a good spot on the couch with your fat loser buddies and token black friend for the Skins/Bucs? How about 49ers/Rams? Browns/Bengals? Bills/Dolphins? I'm a Bears fan, and I don't think I can sit through the entire Bears Lions game. Maybe about a quarter and a half. Remember, it's only week 4, and already, 75% of the NFL schedule is full of games that only fantasy cretins could ever care about. Let's just say I prefer college.
One other thing: West Virginia's uniforms tonight have confirmed what I had suspected: There's a competition on who in college football can come up with the most hideous uniforms. The more effeminate the better. First it was Oregon with their weekly abominations. Then Cal showed up with the Gold "tops"(can't call them jerseys) with the bear scratches on them. Then Clemson went with an all purple look which looked like a Halloween costume gone bad when you added the Orange helmets. Then Georgia ditched the best home jerseys in the business and went to a pointless black that looked like a practice jersey. Now we see West Virginia in the all yellow that copnjures up thoughts of bar toilet after 17 people were either too lazy or too replused to flush. Keep an eye out for Illinois and a possible all Orange combo, since they'll be looking for new ways to embarrass themselves when their clueless play on the field isn't enough.
2. Utah St +24 @BYU(friday): Buy this up if you have to, since 24 is a key number. Utah St is much improved this year, as they have joined Idaho in their escape from the "unbettable list". Formerly long time residents of the sub 100's in total offense rankings, they find themselves sitting at #13 nationally in total offense, racking up 6.7 yards per snap on offense, better than the likes of Houston, Notre Dame, Texas, Kansas, Arkansas, Oklahoma St, etc. This is mostly due to their knack for cracking off big plays, which has happened with regularity regardless of oppnent, be it Southern Utah or Utah or Texas A&M. On the flipside, BYU has been just ok on defense, as they gave up yards in bunches to Colorado St last week and rank only 71st against the run. Utah St gets up to play this game, and they seldom, if ever get an inspired effort from BYU, who has bigger fish to fry, as their conference season starts in earnest next week. I think Utah St will be able to score here, so 24 is a lot.
3. Wisconsin +3 @Minnesota: One of the things you'd have predicted at the beginning of the season was that Wisconsin would have a hard time throwing the ball. Then in fall camp, when the starter from last year stunk so much that they benched him, you'd probably be emboldened in your chiding of their passing offense. In all actuality, though, their pass offense has been effective(12th nationally against decent defensive squads like NIU and Fresno), and Minnesota, as usual, struggles to stop the pass. I can see an edge to Wisconsin when they have the ball, and pretty much a stalemate when Minnesota has the ball. Given Wisconsin's domination of this series and the fact that the spread has moved to a FG, I'm cdefinitely liking the Badgers.
4. @Michigan St -3 v Michigan: One thing you can be sure of: Michigan will get Michigan St's best shot in this one. The Spartans have dropped three in a row, and you can make a case that they were caught in a terrible look ahead spot last week in Madison. Michigan makes their first foray on the road in this one, so we'll see how Tate Forcier fares in a hostile environment. These two teams are pretty similar offensively, but I think Michigan's defense might be exposed a little more readily than MSU's defense in this one. This one is circled on Mark Dantonio's calendar, and I'm sure he took notes on Indiana's ability to move the ball at will on that defense. I place a lot of meaning on freshman QB's making their first road trip, and even without the HFA, Michigan St looks like a stronger team at this point, despite the records.
5. @UL-Monroe -6 v Florida International: I hate to recommend this dog of a game, but this one looks like it was mis-lined. It actually came out at -2 and has rightly moved up to -6. Louisiana Monroe has not been bad this year, while FIU is helpless on both sides of the ball. In every facet of the game, you can point to a huge edge for Lou-Mon. They're balanced and can take care of things both in the passing game as well as the run game. FIU is equally putrid against both...they're still trying to figure things out.
6. Washington +12 1/2 @Notre Dame: This one used to be at 14, a number I'd really prefer here, but I'll take double digits to be honest. It's true that the matchup between ND's passing game and UW's inability to stop it will casuse problems for the Huskies, but I am not sure of the status of Jimmy Claussen and Armando Allen. Even if those two do play, the loss of Michael Floyd is very profound. The one thing Notre Dame has to deal with at home is the other team's excitement in coming to play them in South Bend. You can predict a solid performance from UW in that regard. Also, I am not comfortable laying substantial points with a defense that has struggled(103rd in total D), and is facing a competent QB. I'm also pretty sold on Sarkisian, who has had a lot of success against ND in the past and has the added assist of coming off a humbling performance against Stanford that likely refocused his kids this week. Another chance for them to show they belong. Based on Notre Dame's penchant for playing down to the competition, I think UW has a fighter's chance of pulling the upset if they get a couple bounces.
7 Georgia Tech +5 1/2 @Mississippi St: I loved the effort from MSU last week, but they faced a team in LSU that appears to be about the most vulnerable to spot disadvantages as you can find in the country. This week the Bulldogs have to strap it on again against a good team, coming off the heartbreak of letting LSU off the hook in their best chance to beat them in years. To give two off the charts performances two weeks in a row is a bit much to ask in my opinion. It takes total effort and concentration to play Ga Tech, and I think they might be lacking in that area this week. Georgia Tech on the other hand is coming off a confidence building performance against North Carolina, which they really needed. The option looked crisp, and they finally got White and Dwyer going. I think the chances are good that they continue that this week. GT's weakness is pass defense, and Mississippi St doesn't have the offense to exploit it. It's a bad matchup for the Dogs and a deadful spot to boot.
8. @Indiana +17 1/2 v Ohio St: I was very skeptical of Indiana's offense coming into the year, but after lookng at them vs michigan, they've got some players on that offense. the QB is pretty solid, the RB has some explosion, and they've got a couple nice pieces at receiver. In addition, they have a big, experienced offensive line that appears to be able to hold it's own against anyone. Their defense is also better than normal IU standards, with two DE's that can rush the passer and some playmakers in the secondary. Ohio St, I'm sure, isn't lacking for confidence, what with the bitch slapping they gave Illinois last week. They'll also have a slew of red clad, red faced yahoos in Bloomington making the trip from all points in Ohio. However, taking away the controlled scrimmage they had last week, they haven't really run the ball all that well, and IU is ranked 14th against the run. OSU will definitely have to bring it's A game in order to trigger a rout, and it's still too early in the season for IU to give up. Even if they fall behind, IU's offense is plenty capable of a late TD for a backdoor cover. It wouldn't shock me if IU has a shot at the outright win late in the 4th.
9. @Syracuse +7(buy it) v South Florida: Letdown spot for South Florida here. It was a very impressive effort against a schizophrenic Florida St team last week, but it was more about the spot for FSU than anything. Now South Florida has to travel up to the Carrier Dome to play an improved Syracuse team. We'll see, I suppose just how imprioved they are offensively, since USF will provide a test, but Syracuse has proven to be no pushover, especially against the run, where they are ranked 15, despite playing the likes of Penn St on the road. taking a look at USF's offense, obviously Matt Groethe is out, so they are going with BJ whoever again, and if you take away the two big pass plays they had last week, which were both blown coverages, his line looks something like 6-19 for 65 yards. If Syracuse can get their offense going some, I like their chances to limit USF's offense, and this is obviously a letdown spot for USF in their second consecutive road game.
10 @Vanderbilt +10 v Ole Miss: Terrible sandwich spot for Ole Miss here, coming off the tough loss to South Carolina in which they showed nothing, and looking ahead to the big game with Alabama in Oxford next week. Vandy remains a stout defensive team, and I have been utterly unimpressed with Jevan Sneed thus far. If Ole Miss had shown some explosion on offense to date, this would be a tough one to pick, but I think this one will be a dogfight for the rebs from the snap of the ball. Vandy is lookng to make amends for that horseshit performance they put out there 2 weeks ago at home against Mississippi St. With the combination of the spot and Ole Miss's lack of traction on offense, I like Vandy's chances here.
11. Washington St +35 @Oregon: Ok, so now Oregon is good again, I guess. I know they put the ultimate beat down on cal, but it was a terrible spot for Cal, which I should have known last week, and now Oregon finds itself in a tough spot themselves coming off that emotional, perfect performance last week ahead of a trip to hated UCLA next week. Wazzou didn't embarrass themselves against USC last week with a true freshman at QB. If Jeremiah Masoli has suddenly learned how to throw, Oregon comes in with a renewed vigor to paste Washington St, and they wish to run it up on the Cougs, they MIGHT cover the 35. My guess is that they'll be happy to get out of there with a 34-14 victory and call it a day.
12. NC State +3(buy it)@Wake: Just lookng at the roles of these teams should have told you that i'd be on Nc St. The Pack is a fabulous dog, and Wake is horrendous as a favorite. matchup wise, Wake is struggling on defense as a completely inept BC offense had no problems moving the ball on them last week. Now they have Russell Wilson to deal with, who has found his stride again after a rough opening week performance against South Carolina. He lit up a pretty decent Pitt defense last week, and his 2 year running ratio is now 29TD/1 INT. Not bad. NC State also is having a nice year on the defensive side of the ball, giving up less than 2.5 yards per carry and ranking 7th on overall yards per play. This is also one of ther rare cases where Wake coach Jim Grobe won't completely school his competition, as Tom O'Brien can hold his own. I obviously like NC State outright here, but if Wake wins, chances are it won't be more than a FG.
13. USC -4 @Cal: I think you're going to see USC's best performance of the year in this game. Even if you throw out their performance last week, I think I overestimated Cal's offense a bit. Best has now struggled to get going aside from a couple big runs in 3 games in a row, and Riley looks to be a tad overrated...their ranked 50th in passing offense, and that's against some pedestrian defenses. USC's defense is settling in, and they will probably have some renewed vigor because they have taken some criticism ove the past week due to back to back poor performances against the Washington teams. I think Cal might be a little further exposed in this one. If they jump off the mat and punch USC in the mouth, more power to them, but I'm not sure they have the manpower for it.
others: There is a threesome of games in the ACC in which I'm liking the dogs, and with this conference's track record the past couple of years I originally would have had them above, but I have some hesitation based on the lines coming down. Maryland is catching 13 1/2 at home against Clemson. I think Maryland might be better than they've shown, and Clemson has really struggled on offense, but that's been mostly against much better defenses than Maryland. I think 2 tds is too much, but I'm not ready to go all in on it, because Mmaryland has been downright rotten this year, and they are banged up to boot.... Virginia is catching 13 at UNC, which I'll be playing because Ii don't think UNC should be laying that much and UVA is another teanm that probably isn't as bad as they've looked,. I don't trust their Qb to hold onto the ball however, so I'm only going halfway on that one.....Va Tech is in a very tough letdown spot laying 17 at Duke. Under Cutcliffe, Duke is much more likely to make a game of this, but they are jsut as prone to giving up huge runs to Ryan Williams. 17 is a lot in this spot, however, and 80% of the public is lining up behind America's new darling. They are overrated again. Funny what one game in the rain can do.....Speaking of that, Miami is catching 7 1/2 against Oklahoma. I stuill am not sold that Oklahoma can score at the level they are accustomed, and I think they'll have a hard time keeping Miami off the board. Landry Jones has played nobody yet. Maybe he'll handle it well, but I think Miami will be looking for redemption in this one, and Oklahoma never plays well in South Florida.....Iowa is in the mother of all sandwich spots at home laying 22 to Arky St. Off Penn st with Michigan at home next week. Yeesh. Arky St is not very good, however......UCLA looks to be in a good spot catching 5 1/2 at Stanford, but they are starting Kevin Craft at QB due to injury. He's the guy that tossed 4 pick 6's in a game at Arizona St last year and personally set fire to my wallet, so I won't be letting him do that to me again.... Also leaning toward the Cats to cover 8 at Purdue with Purdue coming off a heartbreaker against ND. The Cats are good at rising up in spots like this, and Purdue is not a very good favorite historically in spots like this....That's it for now, hopefully everyone enjoys the weekend.
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