Saturday, October 3, 2009

Week 5 Musings

It was nice to get back to some normalcy last week, as the numbered musings went 8-3. Coming in to this week, the record for the year is 20-26. Well, at least we've passed the 40% plateau. Speaking of normalcy, at least lately, the musings are off to an 0-1 start this week after Hawaii's fetal position act Wednesday night. There's always danger in backing Hawaii at the end of a long trip, and I fell victim to the Rainbows occasional gutlessness in that spot. Basically, they collectively said, "Hey, we're a 7-5/6-6 team. We're bound to lose some games, and his one looks like one of them.We're on our third road game in a row. We just want to get the hell out of here and get back on the island, so let's just chalk this one up as one of our losses and leave." Once QB Alexander got his bell rung, it was all she wrote.


Can we talk about the NFL for a second? I found myself perusing the week 4 schedule and came to the following conclusion: The NFL sucks ass, and it sucks with great velocity. I counted 3 games that I have any interest at all in watching. Ii've also come up with the following list of teams who I would classify as terrible: Rams, Browns, Bucs,Chiefs, Dolphins, Redskins, Lions, Bills, Raiders, Broncos(I don't care if they're 3-0), Panthers, Jaguars, Bengals, and Seahawks. That's 14 teams, or 43% of the league, and I'm probably being too nice to the Texans and Cardinals. When is the country going to wake up and realize that they are being brainwashed by the NFL office and it's advertisers about this horseshit league? It is NOT fun to watch 14 blocks of commercials per hour. It's not fun to watch a team dump off a pass 2 yards downfield on 4th and 13 in the final minute when they're down 6. It's NOT fun to watch Byron Leftwich play quarterback and complete 7 passes for 21 yards. Anybody planning on filling the beer commerical steroptype and donning a jersey, grabbing the chips and getting a good spot on the couch with your fat loser buddies and token black friend for the Skins/Bucs? How about 49ers/Rams? Browns/Bengals? Bills/Dolphins? I'm a Bears fan, and I don't think I can sit through the entire Bears Lions game. Maybe about a quarter and a half. Remember, it's only week 4, and already, 75% of the NFL schedule is full of games that only fantasy cretins could ever care about. Let's just say I prefer college.


One other thing: West Virginia's uniforms tonight have confirmed what I had suspected: There's a competition on who in college football can come up with the most hideous uniforms. The more effeminate the better. First it was Oregon with their weekly abominations. Then Cal showed up with the Gold "tops"(can't call them jerseys) with the bear scratches on them. Then Clemson went with an all purple look which looked like a Halloween costume gone bad when you added the Orange helmets. Then Georgia ditched the best home jerseys in the business and went to a pointless black that looked like a practice jersey. Now we see West Virginia in the all yellow that copnjures up thoughts of bar toilet after 17 people were either too lazy or too replused to flush. Keep an eye out for Illinois and a possible all Orange combo, since they'll be looking for new ways to embarrass themselves when their clueless play on the field isn't enough.



2. Utah St +24 @BYU(friday): Buy this up if you have to, since 24 is a key number. Utah St is much improved this year, as they have joined Idaho in their escape from the "unbettable list". Formerly long time residents of the sub 100's in total offense rankings, they find themselves sitting at #13 nationally in total offense, racking up 6.7 yards per snap on offense, better than the likes of Houston, Notre Dame, Texas, Kansas, Arkansas, Oklahoma St, etc. This is mostly due to their knack for cracking off big plays, which has happened with regularity regardless of oppnent, be it Southern Utah or Utah or Texas A&M. On the flipside, BYU has been just ok on defense, as they gave up yards in bunches to Colorado St last week and rank only 71st against the run. Utah St gets up to play this game, and they seldom, if ever get an inspired effort from BYU, who has bigger fish to fry, as their conference season starts in earnest next week. I think Utah St will be able to score here, so 24 is a lot.


3. Wisconsin +3 @Minnesota: One of the things you'd have predicted at the beginning of the season was that Wisconsin would have a hard time throwing the ball. Then in fall camp, when the starter from last year stunk so much that they benched him, you'd probably be emboldened in your chiding of their passing offense. In all actuality, though, their pass offense has been effective(12th nationally against decent defensive squads like NIU and Fresno), and Minnesota, as usual, struggles to stop the pass. I can see an edge to Wisconsin when they have the ball, and pretty much a stalemate when Minnesota has the ball. Given Wisconsin's domination of this series and the fact that the spread has moved to a FG, I'm cdefinitely liking the Badgers.


4. @Michigan St -3 v Michigan: One thing you can be sure of: Michigan will get Michigan St's best shot in this one. The Spartans have dropped three in a row, and you can make a case that they were caught in a terrible look ahead spot last week in Madison. Michigan makes their first foray on the road in this one, so we'll see how Tate Forcier fares in a hostile environment. These two teams are pretty similar offensively, but I think Michigan's defense might be exposed a little more readily than MSU's defense in this one. This one is circled on Mark Dantonio's calendar, and I'm sure he took notes on Indiana's ability to move the ball at will on that defense. I place a lot of meaning on freshman QB's making their first road trip, and even without the HFA, Michigan St looks like a stronger team at this point, despite the records.


5. @UL-Monroe -6 v Florida International: I hate to recommend this dog of a game, but this one looks like it was mis-lined. It actually came out at -2 and has rightly moved up to -6. Louisiana Monroe has not been bad this year, while FIU is helpless on both sides of the ball. In every facet of the game, you can point to a huge edge for Lou-Mon. They're balanced and can take care of things both in the passing game as well as the run game. FIU is equally putrid against both...they're still trying to figure things out.


6. Washington +12 1/2 @Notre Dame: This one used to be at 14, a number I'd really prefer here, but I'll take double digits to be honest. It's true that the matchup between ND's passing game and UW's inability to stop it will casuse problems for the Huskies, but I am not sure of the status of Jimmy Claussen and Armando Allen. Even if those two do play, the loss of Michael Floyd is very profound. The one thing Notre Dame has to deal with at home is the other team's excitement in coming to play them in South Bend. You can predict a solid performance from UW in that regard. Also, I am not comfortable laying substantial points with a defense that has struggled(103rd in total D), and is facing a competent QB. I'm also pretty sold on Sarkisian, who has had a lot of success against ND in the past and has the added assist of coming off a humbling performance against Stanford that likely refocused his kids this week. Another chance for them to show they belong. Based on Notre Dame's penchant for playing down to the competition, I think UW has a fighter's chance of pulling the upset if they get a couple bounces.


7 Georgia Tech +5 1/2 @Mississippi St: I loved the effort from MSU last week, but they faced a team in LSU that appears to be about the most vulnerable to spot disadvantages as you can find in the country. This week the Bulldogs have to strap it on again against a good team, coming off the heartbreak of letting LSU off the hook in their best chance to beat them in years. To give two off the charts performances two weeks in a row is a bit much to ask in my opinion. It takes total effort and concentration to play Ga Tech, and I think they might be lacking in that area this week. Georgia Tech on the other hand is coming off a confidence building performance against North Carolina, which they really needed. The option looked crisp, and they finally got White and Dwyer going. I think the chances are good that they continue that this week. GT's weakness is pass defense, and Mississippi St doesn't have the offense to exploit it. It's a bad matchup for the Dogs and a deadful spot to boot.


8. @Indiana +17 1/2 v Ohio St: I was very skeptical of Indiana's offense coming into the year, but after lookng at them vs michigan, they've got some players on that offense. the QB is pretty solid, the RB has some explosion, and they've got a couple nice pieces at receiver. In addition, they have a big, experienced offensive line that appears to be able to hold it's own against anyone. Their defense is also better than normal IU standards, with two DE's that can rush the passer and some playmakers in the secondary. Ohio St, I'm sure, isn't lacking for confidence, what with the bitch slapping they gave Illinois last week. They'll also have a slew of red clad, red faced yahoos in Bloomington making the trip from all points in Ohio. However, taking away the controlled scrimmage they had last week, they haven't really run the ball all that well, and IU is ranked 14th against the run. OSU will definitely have to bring it's A game in order to trigger a rout, and it's still too early in the season for IU to give up. Even if they fall behind, IU's offense is plenty capable of a late TD for a backdoor cover. It wouldn't shock me if IU has a shot at the outright win late in the 4th.


9. @Syracuse +7(buy it) v South Florida: Letdown spot for South Florida here. It was a very impressive effort against a schizophrenic Florida St team last week, but it was more about the spot for FSU than anything. Now South Florida has to travel up to the Carrier Dome to play an improved Syracuse team. We'll see, I suppose just how imprioved they are offensively, since USF will provide a test, but Syracuse has proven to be no pushover, especially against the run, where they are ranked 15, despite playing the likes of Penn St on the road. taking a look at USF's offense, obviously Matt Groethe is out, so they are going with BJ whoever again, and if you take away the two big pass plays they had last week, which were both blown coverages, his line looks something like 6-19 for 65 yards. If Syracuse can get their offense going some, I like their chances to limit USF's offense, and this is obviously a letdown spot for USF in their second consecutive road game.


10 @Vanderbilt +10 v Ole Miss: Terrible sandwich spot for Ole Miss here, coming off the tough loss to South Carolina in which they showed nothing, and looking ahead to the big game with Alabama in Oxford next week. Vandy remains a stout defensive team, and I have been utterly unimpressed with Jevan Sneed thus far. If Ole Miss had shown some explosion on offense to date, this would be a tough one to pick, but I think this one will be a dogfight for the rebs from the snap of the ball. Vandy is lookng to make amends for that horseshit performance they put out there 2 weeks ago at home against Mississippi St. With the combination of the spot and Ole Miss's lack of traction on offense, I like Vandy's chances here.


11. Washington St +35 @Oregon: Ok, so now Oregon is good again, I guess. I know they put the ultimate beat down on cal, but it was a terrible spot for Cal, which I should have known last week, and now Oregon finds itself in a tough spot themselves coming off that emotional, perfect performance last week ahead of a trip to hated UCLA next week. Wazzou didn't embarrass themselves against USC last week with a true freshman at QB. If Jeremiah Masoli has suddenly learned how to throw, Oregon comes in with a renewed vigor to paste Washington St, and they wish to run it up on the Cougs, they MIGHT cover the 35. My guess is that they'll be happy to get out of there with a 34-14 victory and call it a day.


12. NC State +3(buy it)@Wake: Just lookng at the roles of these teams should have told you that i'd be on Nc St. The Pack is a fabulous dog, and Wake is horrendous as a favorite. matchup wise, Wake is struggling on defense as a completely inept BC offense had no problems moving the ball on them last week. Now they have Russell Wilson to deal with, who has found his stride again after a rough opening week performance against South Carolina. He lit up a pretty decent Pitt defense last week, and his 2 year running ratio is now 29TD/1 INT. Not bad. NC State also is having a nice year on the defensive side of the ball, giving up less than 2.5 yards per carry and ranking 7th on overall yards per play. This is also one of ther rare cases where Wake coach Jim Grobe won't completely school his competition, as Tom O'Brien can hold his own. I obviously like NC State outright here, but if Wake wins, chances are it won't be more than a FG.


13. USC -4 @Cal: I think you're going to see USC's best performance of the year in this game. Even if you throw out their performance last week, I think I overestimated Cal's offense a bit. Best has now struggled to get going aside from a couple big runs in 3 games in a row, and Riley looks to be a tad overrated...their ranked 50th in passing offense, and that's against some pedestrian defenses. USC's defense is settling in, and they will probably have some renewed vigor because they have taken some criticism ove the past week due to back to back poor performances against the Washington teams. I think Cal might be a little further exposed in this one. If they jump off the mat and punch USC in the mouth, more power to them, but I'm not sure they have the manpower for it.


others: There is a threesome of games in the ACC in which I'm liking the dogs, and with this conference's track record the past couple of years I originally would have had them above, but I have some hesitation based on the lines coming down. Maryland is catching 13 1/2 at home against Clemson. I think Maryland might be better than they've shown, and Clemson has really struggled on offense, but that's been mostly against much better defenses than Maryland. I think 2 tds is too much, but I'm not ready to go all in on it, because Mmaryland has been downright rotten this year, and they are banged up to boot.... Virginia is catching 13 at UNC, which I'll be playing because Ii don't think UNC should be laying that much and UVA is another teanm that probably isn't as bad as they've looked,. I don't trust their Qb to hold onto the ball however, so I'm only going halfway on that one.....Va Tech is in a very tough letdown spot laying 17 at Duke. Under Cutcliffe, Duke is much more likely to make a game of this, but they are jsut as prone to giving up huge runs to Ryan Williams. 17 is a lot in this spot, however, and 80% of the public is lining up behind America's new darling. They are overrated again. Funny what one game in the rain can do.....Speaking of that, Miami is catching 7 1/2 against Oklahoma. I stuill am not sold that Oklahoma can score at the level they are accustomed, and I think they'll have a hard time keeping Miami off the board. Landry Jones has played nobody yet. Maybe he'll handle it well, but I think Miami will be looking for redemption in this one, and Oklahoma never plays well in South Florida.....Iowa is in the mother of all sandwich spots at home laying 22 to Arky St. Off Penn st with Michigan at home next week. Yeesh. Arky St is not very good, however......UCLA looks to be in a good spot catching 5 1/2 at Stanford, but they are starting Kevin Craft at QB due to injury. He's the guy that tossed 4 pick 6's in a game at Arizona St last year and personally set fire to my wallet, so I won't be letting him do that to me again.... Also leaning toward the Cats to cover 8 at Purdue with Purdue coming off a heartbreaker against ND. The Cats are good at rising up in spots like this, and Purdue is not a very good favorite historically in spots like this....That's it for now, hopefully everyone enjoys the weekend.


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