Week 8 Musings

As I've mentioned before, and in what seems to be a recurring theme, take this collection of fecal matter with a grain of salt, because I find new ways to look like an Illinois football coach(read: idiotic and helpless) every week. Last week there were more terrible recommendations, with some good old fashioned bone jobs thrown in for good measure. 3-6-1 for the week, which brings the unhappy totals to 36-45-2. 44%. I aspire to reach coin flip levels.

On another note, I'll have to bring up one of my least favorite people in the world, our good friend Bug Selig. As you may or may not know, and frankly, I;m not sure that anyone really even cares anymore, but the World Series is guaranteed to go into November this year. Why is that? Was there a work stoppage? A killer earthquake? A terrorist attack? No...it's just scheduled to go that long because baseball has already laid out the schedule for the World Series, regardless of when the LCS series end. If the Yankees win tonight, and they are trailing as I write this, the Phils and the Yankees will have almost a full week off until we start the WS. This will lead to obviously poor weather in Philly and New York, which will then lead to the obligatory screeching for the World Series to be played in a neutral site to avoid 30 degree weather. This, of course, could all be avoided if these idiots in the MLB office would just schedule the series to start a couple days after the teams are decided. But no, says Bug Selig. How on earth could anyone make arrangements for travel and hotels if game 1 wasn't pre-scheduled and set in stone? Well, first of all asshole, what good does it do to pre-set the schedule for travel reasons if we don't even know what cities we're supposed to make reservations in?? Second, the NBA and the NHL do it, and they don;t even have to worry about changing weather. I swear, if this mother fucker causes the advent of nuetral sites for the World Series, and the Cubs somehow stagger their way into the World Series I might drive to his dump in Milwaukee and rip his fish lips right off his face. Hey, don't tell me I'm delusional, and that the Cubs will never make the World Series. Who knows? Maybe they'll start awarding runs to offensive players who can jump over parked cars, or start awarding outs to pitchers who look cool in a football uniform and can run a skinny post.. Then maybe some of these horrific baseball players in the Cubs system might have some value.

On to this week. I must say that this week had some hellacious line movement. I locked in a few early this week that moved so much that I can't even recommend them at this point, like Clemson, which went from +8 to +4 1/2 at Miami. With Clemson's defense playing so well, it's a play at 8, but not at 4 1/2. Even with the line movement, some of them are still plays. Here you go.....

1. @Purdue -11 v Illinois: I really can't figure out what is so difficult to comprehend about this Illinois team which causes them to continue to have their games lined as if they are a legitimate D-1A outfit. They are not. This team is terrible in every facet, and this week, although just about every team in America is a bad matchup for them, this Purdue team is a REALLY bad matchup for them. Purdue has outgained opponents this year by almost 100 yards...their problem has been turnovers, which Illinois is incapable of forcing, so no fears there. Purdue has had success running it and throwing it, both things that Illinois can't stop. In previous years, when the Illini have hit the skids, they invariably limp into West Lafayette, where the Boilers pull out a can of whoop ass on them. I almost used the term Achilles heel for Illinois a second ago, but I think by definition, an Achilles heel is an example of a singular weakness. That's impossible for Illinois, because to be accurate, any rhetorical picture of the Illinois team would indicate about 13 Achilles heels. They'd be a torso, dozens of Achilles heels, and a very small brain.

2. @Virginia +5 1/2 v Georgia Tech: For some reason, this game is among the most popular public plays of the week. I really like Georgia Tech, so I'm glad to see them in their current position, which is the frontrunner of their division in the ACC by virtue of their victory over Virginia Tech last week in Atlanta. Now, coming off that emotional win, they have to go on the road to butt heads with All Groh, himself badly concussed, and his Cavaliers. First of all, as I mentioned, it's a tough spot for Ga Tech since they are coming into a letdown situation. They face, however, a Virginia team who has had some nice success against the option, especially last year at Georgia Tech when they held the Wreck to their lowest per carry output of the year and beat them soundly. This year's edition of the Wahoo defense looks as good if not better than last year. Also, Ga tech has proven to be a different team on the road as it relates to D than they have been at home...they're ranked in the low 100's in about everything defensively. It's true that Virginia has had some major issues on offense, but in home games they've been pretty good, an example being the beatdown they administered to Indiana, who isn't a bad defensive team. This looks like a 50/50 proposition for Viginia, so I'll take the better defensive team at home getting almost a TD.

3. South Florida +7(buy if needed) @ Pitt: On a neutral field, I don't know which team I would pick outright, so I think there is some value with South Florida. Offensively they have been balanced, and their defense has been good as well. Also, Pitt is due for their "Life is just a little too good right now" loss that seems to plague Wanny every year. In Pitt's one loss this year, Russell Wilson of NC State terrorized them with his running and passing combo, and BJ Daniels is a very similar QB to Wilson with a great chance to exploit Pitt's defense which is a notch below South Florida's. Like I said, these teams are very similar...I see this game being a carbon copy of the UConn game for Pitt, except South Florida is better offensively and probably a little better defensively as well. Pitt should have lost that game outright, so I'll take the 7 here.

4. Boston College +8 @Notre Dame: This is more of a feel play than aanything else, but I get the feeling that ND will be satisfied just to escape with a victory against a team that has owned them over the past 6 meetings. Many are steering clear of BC in this spot because of the freakishly brutal offensive performances that the Eagles have turned in in their previous road games. However, there are big differences between the opponents in those games. Clemson and Va tech are definitely different defenses than what they wil face Saturday, as the Irish are struggling in all phases on D. Throw in the fact that teams always save their best performances for South Bend, and I think you have the recipe for a team that will be able to put aside their previous performances. ND has been unable to shake pesky teams this year, and with BC's recent switch to a more wildcat type look, they will probably give the Irish some fits. Like I said, ND should be happy with just getting past this game. If they figure out a way to win one comfortably, good for them, but my guess is they don't especially in a deflating let down spot when the opponent is coming off a confidence building performance.

5. Tennessee +14 1/2 @ Alabama: I don't see Tennessee getting blown out here. Of course, if Jonathan Crompton reverts to form and gift wraps a couple of defensive scores for the Tide we might be a in trouble. Having said that, I think UT's recent improvement is real and it looks to me that they will thrive in this type of dog role as long as they are in it, which probably won't be for long. Tennesse's defense isn't on the level of bama's but it's close, and I can't see the Bama offense being anything more than it's efficient, unspectacular self this week. I also think that Bama is due for a nail biter, which every great team seems to have(see Florida last week), and if UT can figure out a way to punch in a score or two, especially with their solid running game, this might be the week. I just like the idea of an improving team who plays good defense getting more than 2 TD's, even if it is against what might be the best team in the country.

6. @Michigan + 4 1/2 v Penn St: I still am not convinced that Penn St is that great of a football team. So far they've played one road game, and that was against Illinois, who is so bad and poorly coached that you can pretty much throw out the results of that one. The only other decent team they have played is Iowa, and they laid an egg in that game. Now they are expected to march into the Big House and handle a Michigan team that they have not beaten in Ann Arbor in their last 5 attempts. It would take a special Penn State team to win this game, and "special" certainly does not come to mind when I watch this Penn St team. I'd use "pedestrian", "uninspiring" and "milquetoast" first, and we haven't even seen them in a hostile environment yet.. Even in games that Michigan looked bad, (Iowa and MSU) they were right there at the end of the game with a chance to win. I think Michigan will play very well in this game, and if that happens, they might win by double digits.

7. @Kansas +8 v Oklahoma: Kansas burned me last week due to an unexplicable start against Colorado(definitely missed the lookahead danger in that one), so I've definitely got the mustacheoed whale and his charges on my shit list, but they find themselves in a good spot this week. Oklahoma can't help but be demoralized, coming off a loss in a game that was going to be their last shot at salvation for this year. Toss in the fact that the Landry Jones is starting, and you can understand why the smell of disinterest might be eminating from the Sooners locker room. I will certainly take more than a TD with Kansas when they are coming off an annoying performance while Oklahoma is missing their QB and their remaining playmakers are hobbled(Brown Murray and Broyles). Regardless of the situation, Oklahoma will always elicit an inspired performance, and KU is among the best at back door covers even if they don't stay in the game until the end.

8. Idaho +15 1/2 @Nevada: This is normally a spot in which I would not go against Nevada, sinc they generally beat up on who they should, then shit the bed against good teams. However, there is simply too much line value in this game for Idaho, even if the Vandals are due for a clunker. Nevada has a devastting run game, one that generally is so good that it doesn't matter how good the other team has been against the run, kind of like Ga tech or Navy. However, it helps when you have stopped he run, which Idaho has done pretty well this year. Offensively, Idaho is very balanced, and as usual, Nevada is having issues defensively. Idaho had been sneakng up on people as a dog lately, but last week they took care of business as a significant favorite, which tells me something. They have been playing very well, and any time you can get this many points with a team playing as well as they are, you have to take them. Big value, especially against a 3-3 squad.

9. Iowa +1 @Michigan St: I think a lot of people are looking at this game as the game where Iowa gets exposed. I'd agree that the timing is right, and I think you have a lot of people hoping that MSU wins this game so we can end the "Iowa in the title game" talk that is scaring people to death throughout the country, but I don't think MSU is the team to do it. They are mistake prone, they don't run the ball particularly well, and they have shown many episodes of boneheadedness throughout the season. Iowa is solid in all phases, well coached, and properly motivated. They definitely showed me something last week when they came off the mat after being dominated in the first half by Wisconsin and counter-punched their way to win against a Badger team that is certainly better than this MSU squad. If MSU is going to beat Iowa, they are going to have to throw on them, and I don't think they can do it without having a couple errant throws picked off. Iowa is just better than them. MSu proved a lot to me with the way they bumbled around and let Michigan come back on them, only to pull it out in the end. If that happens against Iowa, even if they dominate play, they'll lose.

10. @Texas Tech -21(buy the half point) v Texas A&M: I love the transitive property. 2 weeks ago, Texas Tech put a shitkicking on Kansas St to the tune of 66-14. One week later, Kansas St beat A&M 62-14. So what should this spread be, Tech -100? Obviously not, but looking at trends, it probably should be more than 21. A&M under Mike Sherman has shown a disturbing penchant for giving up, or at least looking like they've given up. Also, there is a bit of a rivalry here...my Texas friends tell me that Tech and A&M generally hate each other, so you can expect that Mike Leach will not take any pity on the Aggies. The last three times A&M has ventured to Lubbock, Tech has beaten them thusly: 35-7 as a 10 point favorite, 56-17 as a 13 1/2 point favorite, and 59-28 as a 6 point favorite. A&M has played two games away from home this year and lost by an average of 54-16 to teams not as good as Tech and with much less hatred in their collective hearts. I don't like laying big numbers, but this one looks safe to me.

11. Vandy +14 @South Carolina: Here I go again with this offensively challenged Vandy outfit. The line has moved up to 14, and I think they might work a little better as a road team anyway. That's especially the case against a team like South Carolina, who almost always fails to cover ion these situations. DEspite their ATS performance over the past couple weeks, Vandy's defense remains pretty stout, ranked 17th in the country in yards per play. Statistically, I really can't pinpoint a clear edge in any phase...both defenses should be able to handle the opposing offenses, although Vandy might be able to have some success running it on South Carolina's defense, which is surprisingly ranked 71st against the run, while Vandy is in the upper third in the country in yards per carry. The last time Vandy came to Coumbia, they beat the Cocks outright. I don't expect that this time, but I don't think they'll get blown out either.

12. Louisiana Monroe +15 @Kentucky: Ideally, I'd like a couple more points here, and we might get them if we wait long enough. Kentucky has had some nice performances the past couple of weeks, but they've been as a double digit dog. Now they go into a significant favorite role, a role for which they appear to be ill-suited right now. Their regular QB Mike hartline is out for the season, so they have had to mix and match their Qbs, using two guys, both of which are not really ready to play. They surprised a looking ahead Auburn team last week with a tricky running game and clamped down on defense. Tghis week, their top RB Derrick Locke is not going to play and they remain unsettled at QB. They certainly won't be in a position to give their best effort to Louisiana Monroe, both physically and emotionally. Unfortunately for them, Lou-Mon is a pretty capable opponent, actaully outranking them in just about every category on both sides of the ball despite having played Texas and Arizona St this year. they have balance on offense, and have stopped the run pretty well on defense(ranked 34th nationally), albeit with some statistical anomalies thrown in. Lou Mon went into Lexington a couple years ago when Kentucky had Andre Woodson and almost beat them outright while hanging 500 total yards on them, so they won't be attempting the impossible here. Bad spot for Kentucky...they'll just want to get their W and go home.

13. @Auburn +7 1/2 v LSU: Auburn is coming off a shitty performance at home against Kentucky, and they'll be chomping at the bit to get back out there and make amends against an LSU squad that we can only assume willbe ill-prepared for them. LSU has had all kinds of time with the bye week, but that normally ends up working against them because it's just that much more time for Les Miles to impose his will on his kids and move them farther off the beaten path to success and competence. Auburn, despite their egg laying last week, has the 6th best rushing attack in the country, and LSU is not capable of putting up enough numbers offensively to stave off even an average Auburn offensive performance this week. Sharp bettors moved this line early all they from +11, and with good reason. I think Auburn has a better than 60% chance of winning this game outright.

14. Stanford -6 1/2 @Arizona St: ASU has gaudy defensive numbers, but they have been built on the backs of weakling offensive teams for the most part. Now they take their own putrid offense up north to palo alto to face a real offense, and a real running game in Toby Gerhart and Stanford. the cardinal has had a couple of tough games after a hot start, but their offense has kept on keepin on, including a 500+ yard effort last week in Tuscon in a game they should have won. Arizona St has had all kinds of trouble on offense, even failing to put up much of a whimper on the scoreboard against a ghastly washington defense in Tempe last week until the final gun, when Washington forgot to cover a Hail mary pass. Look it up on You tube...it was quite astoundingly bad pass defense by the Huskies. In short, Stanford will score on them, and they will do what they always do on offense, which is suck.

15. TCU -2 1/2 @ BYU: Yes 15 of them this week. I just don't think that BYU has the chops to knock off the TCU team. Last year, TCU administered a beatdown to the Mormons, and I don't think the teams are much different this year. It's true that BYU has a snazzy passing attack, I'm a fan of Max hall for sure, but they will not be able to run on TCU, and their pass offense becomes a lot less reliable when they can't run. Max hall has also thrown 10 INTs this year and TCU is historically a ballhawking defense. if TCU can pin it's ears back, it could be a long day for Mr Hall. On the flipside, TCu is very efficient on offense, with an above average running game and the 16th ranked passing attack in passer efficiency. BYU is ranked 85th against the pass and has had trouble with the likes of UNLV, San Diego St and Colorado St. I think TCU has the edge on both sides of the ball. TCU found itself in a very similar situation last year when they went into Utah as a slight favorite when they were unbeaten. they dominated that game but blew it at the end. Don't expect the same thing to happen again.

16 @Missiissippi St +23 v Florida: I know Urban is going to get me with a couple fumbled snap TDs or a tipped kick that sticks in someone's helmet running the other way or something, but this is too many points. Mississippi St has proven to be pretty good on defense and their offense is improving. Florida has never played well at Mississippi St, with all the cowbells clanging and whatnot, and Dan Mullen is Urban's buddy, so I'd suspect that he won't run it up on him. I've been waiting for Florida to explode, but it just doesn't look like they are as capable as they were with Percy Harvin..that was a big loss for them. I'll take the boatload of points with the home doggy here.

others......I have a hunch that Ohio St(-16 1/2) is going to lay a whoopin on Minnesota. 2nd consecutive tough road game for the Gophers against a stud defense. They'll be bringing a plastic fork to a gunfight with that offense they trotted out there in State College.....I also like Indiana getting 5 1/2 at Northwesterm. The Cats are awful home favorites, and I think that Indiana may have gotten that Virginia debacle behind them by virtue of a convenient trip to Bloomington from Illinois. Indiana has enough forepower to put some points up. I'd actually give IU the edge in a nuetral game, so I'll take the 5 1/2, which appears to be rising..... Oregon has a hell of a look ahead with USc on deck, but Washington's defense has been so bad that it's hard to recommend them. However, I still think Oregon has been doing it with smoke and mirros, and it will take a huge coaching effort from Chip Kelly to overcome the situation. I'm just not sold on that Oregon offense, and Washington(+10 1/2) has been game at home....Toldo should be able to cover the 3 at home against a Temple team that does it with grit and dirty tricks. Those go by the wayside though if you can't keep up on the scoreboard.....Louisiana Tech is getting points at Utah st(+1) and I think they'll win. They are too physical on both sides of the call for Utah St at this point.....That's it for now.....hop everyone has a good week. The Musings need one.