Week 7 Musings

Good start in the Degenerate Special from Tuesday night. Lou-Mon came through for us, and probably would have made it a laugher if they played it in nice weather, as they couldn't even make use of their biggest advantage which was their ability to expose Arky St's penchant toward covering nobody. Whatever...don't hassle it, right? So this week starts out 1-0.

I'[ve often said that if you pick the right side of every game on the card, you'll win about 66% of your bets. As we all know, the "right side" doesn't always come in as the winner. Last week, we went 6-7, and by my estimation, we were on the right side on 9 of the 13. the 6 that won were never really in doubt, and 3 of the losses (Wisconsin, Arizona and UCLA) were tough ones. One of the things that I will undoubtedly get burned on at some time in the near future due to what happened last week will be my attempts to try and handicap turnovers. It simply can't be done. (Although I will say that you can almost chalk up a defensive or special teams TD right now for Ohio St against Purdue). The musings were absolutely destroyed this week by defensive and special teams TDs. Case in point, the Wisconsin game. The Badgers were undoubtedly the right side, which was evident from kickoff through the final gun. Not only did Ohio st get 3 non-offensive scores, they only notched 8 first downs all day, and the only offensive TD they got came on a 3rd and 15 heave into the endzone at the end of the first half. Moreover, Bret Bielema, the new meathead du jour, refused to kick a field goal in the 4th quarter even though he needed three scores in any case, instead opting to go for the gimme TD on 4th and goal from the 18. He kicks it there and we cover against all odds. Whatever....it was the right side. So was Arizona, who led Washington 33-21 with 4 minutes left, and 33-28 with the ball and 2 minutes left. Unfortunately, they decided to throw on first down, some doofus from Arizona dropped the pass then tried to kick it to himself, only to see it go off his foot, right to some wildman from Washington who scrambled into the endzone to blow the cover. UCLA also gave up a defensive score(naturally) and a kickoff return for a score. I'll maintain that there were probably 50 teams that would have beaten Oregon in that spot on Saturday. Unfortunately, UCLA was not one of them.

Having said all that, I have to admit that 2 of the 4 "wrong side" games were so far off it was downright comical. Indiana managed to be down 30-0 to Virginia by halftime, and gave up 500+ yards to the 115th ranked offense in the country coming in.....I made the following statement about BC in my assertion that they would hang with VT "Maybe if VT was explosive on offense or something..."(they had 31 points at halftime). I also called QB David Shinskie "at least competent". His line? 1-12, 4 yards, 2 INTs. Not a good call.

I decided to lay off the rest of the weeknight games, although there were some very interesting ones on the card. Actually, when I was capping the game from tonight, the line was Cincy -3 to -3 1/2. Right before kickoff, the line fell to Cincy -1. Had that been the case during the week, I would have been on it, but there was no way I could get it out in time. Another example of the public being wrong on a game. Speaking of tonight's matchup, kudos to USF for significantly improving their uniforms in my opinion. The yellow/gold helmets and monochromatic green uni's from previous year were total pieces of shit. The white pants and white helmets look much better. Now they look less like a bad high school team and more like a high class outfit. Too bad they stunk it up. They'll probably go back to the shitfest specials and Jim Leavitt will go back to spitting all over everyone during the pre-game peptalk. Oh yeah...one more thing. One of my favorite names in college football this year is Isiah Pead. Why? Just look at the boxscore. Under rushing yards, you'll see it: I. Pead: 11 carries 41 yards. I Pead!!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

One last question before I start: Does anyone in the NFL wear normal uniforms anymore? Throwbacks, alternates, PC awareness bullshit....dos it ever stop? Is the NFL even interested in football anymore?

2. Texas -3 v Oklahoma: buy it if you have to, but 90% of the books have this at 3...only a couple have it at 3 1/2. An interesting thing about this game is the general lack of playmakers on both teams. Other than Jordan Shipley for Texas, there really aren't any playmakers that will be on the field at RB or WR for either team. However, it's my opinion that Shipley makes a big difference. He's had a great year, and is also a threat to take back a punt, as he did last year against the Sooners. Also, Oklahoma just is not showing any gumption at all on offense. Even last week against Baylor, it took them 4 tries from the 1 to get it in the end zone at home against Baylor. They've struggled all year running the football, and now they have to try to do so against the #2 rushing defense in the country in the Horns. I just think that Oklahoma is going to have all kinds of trouble getting the ball in the end zone because I have no clue who can actually score touchdowns for them in the passing game. Also, if you look at this matchup over the past 4 years or so, Texas has really had their number. Last year, they won by 10 as a 7 point underdog. The year before that they lost by 7 as a 12 point underdog and had a chance to tie that was botched by a bad call near the end of the game. They year before that they won by 18 as a 3 point dog, and prior to that they blew the Sooners out 45-12. I think Texas's solid play in the RR Shootout continues due to their greater ability to make big plays.

3. Wake +7 @Clemson: Here's one that I just can't pass up. It's a guilty pleasure of mine to bet against teams that appear headed for a train wreck, and Clemson in the Dabo Swinney era certainly qualifies. Poor Dabo is obviously overmatched in most cases, and he certainly will be this week when he attempts to match wits with Jim Grobe at Wake. Wake is a quality road dog, and Clemson is a terrible home favorite. The natives are restless down there, so if things start going poorly, look out. The one hesitation here is that for whatever reason, Wake's Achilles heel has been Clemson's version of Death Valley, but I think they'll get it done this time. Riley Skinner has been outstanding this year, as Wake's pass offense is 12th in the country on pass efficiency and 10th in yards per attempt. I think an outright win for Wake is just as likely as a cover for Clemson here. Wake's defense isn't overpowering, but they are opportunistic. Clemson's QBs are completing less than 50% and have a penchant for tossing it up for grabs.

4. @Vandy +7 1/2 v Georgia: I'll admit that it's hard to back Vandy a week after they lost to Army, but I find it even harder to avoid fading Georgia in this spot. Anybody who saw Georgia get clubbed like a pack of baby seals last week in Knoxville will tell you that the score should have been worse than 45-19. Both of UGA's TDs were of the fluke variety(INT return and a KO return).Tennessee QB Jonathan Crompton, who previously would have been holding the clipboard for my son Lucas's 6-7 year old flag football team, shredded the Dawgs for 4 TD's and 11.48 yards per attempt. Their offense forgot how to gain positive yardage, and their coaching staff is under extreme pressure. On paper, Vandy actually looks to have the edge in most of the unit matchups. Also, just like last week, the world is on Georgia. Lord help them if they lose this one, but I think the chances are actually better than 50% that they do. DC Willie Martinez might as well stay in Nashville if that happens.

5. Wyoming +10 1/2 @Air Force: Don't look now, but Wyoming is 4-2. I realize that doesn't mean much, because they've beaten mostly all bottom feeders, but it does lend credibility to the assertion that new coach Dave Christiansen has the players believing that they can be good. Now they line up against Air Force who is coming off an emotional game against TCU in which they didn't deserve to hang with the Frogs, but they did. Air Force has struggled mightily on offense lately, as I mentioned last week. Wyoming does a decent job of stopping the run, and they have gotten pretty good QB play from Freshman Austin Carta-Samuels. At this point, I think this number is too much for Air Force.

6. @Wisconsin -2 1/2 v Iowa: Iowa is currently undefeated, but they have lived a charmed life thus far, including last week, when they won an emotional game with Michigan by 2. Now they start the first of two roadies with a trip to Wisconsin. Wisconsin is coming off a very tough loss at Ohio St, but still has to be confident with the way they handled the Buckeyes. Now they return home with a new lease on life and a chance to prove to everyone that they're as good as they think they are. Iowa, though capable, will have a very hard time getting up yet again for a big game, and there is a chance that they might get run over in this game, because they have had some difficulty stopping the run, and they'll be getting a large and angry Wisconsin offensive line in Madison with an equally as alarming John Clay resembling a runaway freight train. It's pretty easy to envision Iowa's 77th ranked rush defense having all kinds a problems with these animals when they're whipped up in a frenzy in front of that mob scene in Madison. The Badgers will definitely have the motivational edge in this one, as this is the first big home game they've played, while Iowa will have to get up heavily for their third game in four weeks.Throw in the run game disadvantage, and it's a very tough spot for the Haawkeyes. If they pull it out, I'll certainly be tipping my cap.

7. @Indiana +3 1/2 v Illinois: After that complete ankle grab that Indiana treated us to last week, I would generally vow to never again waste my hard earned money on such a group of pansies. Indeed, there is probably only 1 team that I would bet on Indiana against, and not only do they play them this week, they are getting points from them at home! How anyone can make Illinois any kind of road favorite is beyond me. It absolutely cannot be based in any sort of real-life experience in 2009, only on some interpreted events from someone's imagination, or actual events from days long past and now irrelevant. Knowing this cast of braniacs, they're probably assuming they'll win because Indiana lost by 40 points last week, and all they'll need to do is roll their orange helmets out there and let their collective coolness win the game for them against such an overmatched opponent. Never mind that on paper, IU still outrates them in most of matchups even after the shitkicking they took last week. The fact remains that Illinois can't throw the ball to save their lives, can't stop the run, can't cover and can't tackle. And they're stupid. I keep telling people that Illinois is going 1-11. Maybe after they're non-competitive in this game, people will start believing me.

8. Missouri +7 @ Oklahoma St: This is a game that falls a bit under the radar, but should be a pretty good one. Oklahoma st is a solid enough team, but they are considerably worse without Dez Bryant. He might be back soon after the NCAA lets him come out of his room for lying to them about a relationship with Deion Sanders(sounds dirty but it isn't...at least I don't think it is). They also might be without starting RB Kendall Hunter, who at least will be hobbled with a bad ankle. I'm not big on the other running back they have, Keith Toston, and their results overall as an offense have been underwhelming this year. They were outgained by Rice, and Houston, which I would say is pretty similar to Mizzou on offense, shredded them in Stillwater a few weeks ago. Mizzou is coming off a tough loss to Nebraska, but their goals are still intact, and they'll be ready to roll. I think the matchup is a good one for Mizzou here, as they'll be able to move the ball and will catch Okie St in a spot where they won't have all their weapons. I'd ideally like to have a couple more points, but as long as it's a TD or more, I like it, because I think this game will be coming down to the wire.

9. Army +10 1/2 @ Temple: Ok I'll bite. Chances are the weather will be awful in this game, as the northeast is expecting cold and possibly snow this weekend. That will make it tough on the passing games. Any conditions that will lessen the effects of any passing games is good for Army, as they have a grammar school level passing game. They can run it though, and they have been pretty good at stopping the run. Temple has had a decent year, but they are pedestrian on offense, and pretty similar to Army for the most part. In my opinion, these two teams are evenly matched, and in a sludgefest type of game, which it appears this will be, I couldn't tell you with any kind of confidence which team would win this game. Army has just as good a chance to win it if they don't vomit on themselves with a slew of turnovers, so I'll certainly take the double digits.

10 Kansas -10 @Colorado: Although KU struggled with Iowa St last week, I don't believe they'll have the same problems with Colorado this week. Colorado has been putrid against the pass as well as the run, and against an offense like KU's that's a recipe for disaster. Colorado's charade performance agaisnt a disinterested Texas team and Ku's failure to avoid screwing around with iowa St are the reason for this somewhat reasonable line. KU has issues on defense, but Colorado has a mess on it's handls with it's offense, so it probably won't matter. They have no clue who is going to play QB for them. This looks like a 44-14 type game to me.


Others: If you consider the transitive property, NIU beat Western Michigan two weeks ago in DeKalb 38-3, and Toledo lost to WMU 58-26 in Toledo last week. Now NIU plays Toledo. Not surprisingly, Toledo is getting 7 from the Huskies, but for some reason, I think Toledo, in all it's schizophrenic glory, has a great shot of beating the Huskies with their pinball machine(at times) offense. their too inconsistent to 100% recommend them though.....Gut play: Kstate comes off the mat after a complete grilling from Texas tech to beat A&M at home as a 6 point dog. A&M shouldn't be favored on the road, and a worse K State team beat A&M last year in College Station by 13....Leaning toward taking all those points (24-26 depending on where you're looking) with Arkansas, but I'm still invoking my rule of not offending Urban Meyer.....I can't figure out that texas tech/Nebraska line. generally I would be all over those points, but someone must know something I don't. I'll be playing the red raiders, but if Texas Tech come out in pink uni's or something(which I wouldn't actually be surprised by if it happened in the NFL), I'll know I've been had. Kentucky doesn't have a QB, so if they don't run it and play solid defense, they might get blown out at Auburn(-13)..... That's it for now, though I might have more late tonight......