Week 6 Musings

As bad as I've been this year, complaining about a positive week would seem a bit ridiculous, but I wish I had a couple of those back. There were 5 siginificant dogs that I liked quite a bit last week, Vandy, Indiana and the three ACC teams. (Duke, Maryland and Virginia). Turns out the ones I picked for the numbered musings went 0-2, the ones I threw in the also rans went 3-0, with two of them winning outright. To be honest, both Indiana and Vandy played horribly, and still both had a shot to cover if they hadn't thrown picks in the end zone. Oh well...whatever. 7-6 for the week, 27-32 for the year. Having said that, I wish I could have had a better number for the musings considering I was good enough in my overall bets last week to get capped on college football sides by Sportsbook. Max bet: $1. I'm guessing it was an overreaction to other things, but it just so happened that I started using SB two weeks ago for college sides and it coincided with back to back weeks of 23-12 and 24-10. So they capped me. Those poor bastards. They capped a guy who two weeks ago couldn't pick his ass with a garden tool. It's all about timing I guess. They should talk to the guys at Bet Jamaica. BJ would tell them to get their heads examined, since they now lost one of the most reliable squares in the Midwest. Like I said, too bad I didn't do a better job of picking the right ones. The also rans went 6-1, but after re-reading the UCLA/Stanford quip maybe that was more a rip on Kevin Craft than a play on UCLA. Gotta count it though.

Some observations: How about them St Louis Cardinals? I quit caring about baseball after I watched Alfonso Soriano flail at a triple A slider for 400th time this year sometime in mid August, but seeing what happened to them last night was nothing short of spectacular. Here's a franchise that hasn't had an ounce of bad luck on the field in about 17 years, and they had a Brant Brown moment last night in the most important game they've played in 3 years. I wish I could have been in a bar in St Louis at that moment, as all these gorp Cardinal fans were clutching their teddy bears rooting their boys on to a win, only to see them all gasp in horror as the most recent Mr Perfect, Matt Holiday botched a routine fly that would have ended the game. Here's a big middle finger and a Lloyd Christmas style HAHAHAHAHA from the cold, cold evil heart of a Cubs fan who is absolutely beside himself in glee at your once in a lifetime misfortune. With my luck they'll tear off three in a row against all odds. God, I hope not.


Quickly: I was thinking about playing Kentucky +12 at South Carolina, but decided against it becasue Kentucky starting CBs(both) were out and the line dropped to 9 1/2, but when I was looking at that game, I came across following exchange between a reporter and OBC, regarding the previously mentioned corners:

Reporter: "Coach Brooks said that both of the corners are very doubtful and probably won't play this week"
OBC: "Boy, I sure hope they don't. That would be great."
Not sure why, but I just found that to be hillarious. I'll probably bet on Kentucky anyway.


1. Michigan St -3 1/2 @ Illinois: There are some smart handicappers who are outsmarting themselves in this one. It's not that difficult: Bet against teams who have questionable character and horrendous coaching when that team is playing against a team in the same talent stratosphere. MSU qualifies. Don't talk about a tough letdown situation, or a team that has talent and is seeing a drop in class, etc. The question is simple: Will MSU desire to win the game? Since they will be making the trip we can only assume the answer is yes. So bet on them. The last thing I feel like doing right now is selling all of you on the notion that Ron Zook's staff is among the worst in Division 1, and certainly worst of any BCS conference school, but i feel I must. When they beat Iowa last year, they reached a point when they had to figure out where the program was going, i.e., taking the next step. If they sacked up and finished strong, they would go to a bowl for the second year in a row, and they would have turned a corner. Here's what has happened since:They faced a tough coaching/motivation situation playing Western Michigan in Detroit off the Iowa game and looking ahead to Ohio St. What happened? They failed., blowing the game outright as a 10 point favorite. Then they shit all over themselves despite outgaining Ohio St the next week. Then, with a bowl game on the line, they didn't even show up at Northwestern and stayed home for the holidays. This year, they embarrassed themselves against a Missouri team that now looks like a fraud, didn't even show up against Ohio St in the horseshoe, and were a disgrace to strategery in the Penn St game. Witness: At halftime, Illinois trails 7-3, having outgained PSU by almost 100 yards, but somehow(surprise) did not capitalize on their chances. Time for adjustments, right? On consecutive drives to start the second half, here's what happened: Penn St drive: 4 yards, 3 yards, 15, 20, 14-fumble-Illinois ball.....Illinois 3 and out....PSU: 4,51,6,5,3-TD. Illinois: 3 and out. PSU: 20,6,7,2,16,7,7,9,4-TD....Illinois 3 and out. PSU: 21,12,13,18,15-TD. Game over. Nice halftime adjustments, assholes!!Keep in mind that Penn St couldn't run on Syracuse or Temple previously, yet they had 3 guys either get 100 yards rushing or come close. In a nutshell, Illinois can't stop the run, they can't stop the pass, they can't run effectively anymore, they can't convert third downs, their coach is a moron, their assistant coaches are imbeclies, their players are idiots(notice the progression of the clinical phases) and all of them lack character. Hey, they even switched Qbs to a kid who can't hold on to the ball, so they'll have the turnover thing figured out as well. MSU has the edge in every conceivable matchup in this one to boot. It's the easiest call of the year thus far. Sorry for the ramble.

2. Miami(OH) +19 @Northwestern: The Cats got a nice win/cover last week at Purdue, but now they are in a position in which they seldom excel, and that's as a big favorite. They found themselves in that spot earlier this year against an Eastern Michigan team that deserved to be dogged that much, and they barely squeaked out a win. They have actually lost games like this in the past. Now, having said that, it will be a tall order for Miami, who has looked as bad as anybody in the nation at times this year. But they are showing improvement, especially on offense, and they made a switch to a new QB a couple weeks ago and have been effective in the passing game since. Last week, they gained some confidence by hanging with Cincy, so I think they are in a good spot here. They also catch the Cats between Big Ten road games, which is always a tall order motivation-wise. NW has struggled against the pass this year, so I think they'l have to score a lot to cover this number. If they do it, good for them, because they could use a laugher, but I just don't see it. They aren't wired that way, and Miami is getting better.

3. @Tennessee -1 v Georgia: Georgia is the overwhleming public favorite in this game because everybody rightly thinks that Jonathan Crompton is an absolute mess of a quarterback. They are right, but Georgia has pretty much shown themselves to be a very flawed team themselves. Defensively, they are lacking, both in schemes and apparently talent or gumption. Tennessee, despite some losses, still views themselves rather positively, and you won't have the impatient fan base element for this one. It's a rivalry game, so the fans will be lubed up and providing a good homefield atmosphere. Tennessee's defense remains solid, much better than Georgia's, and despite Crompton's issues, Tennesse's offense is statistically about the same as Georgia's and boasts a much better running game. I just think Tennessee is going to ambush Georgia, especially if the Dawgs are feeling sorry for themselves about the game they blew last week. Did I mention that 69% of the public is on Georgia?

4. Boston College +14(buy it) @Virginia Tech: Two weeks ago I would never recommend BC on the road in a hostile environment, since the last iteration of their road offense resulted in about 4 positive plays all day at Clemson. However, they have gotten themselves on track with a QB switch to the at least competent Dave Shinskie, and their defense remains pretty salty. Vt is absolutely living off the Miami massacre in the monsoon(nice alliteration, eh??). Last week, predictably, Duke gave them all they could handle.Now BC comes in as a 2TD dog. At this point, you'd have to make BC at least a reasonable favorite to win their side of the ACC, and VT is a two TD favorite over them.?? Maybe if VT was explosive on offense or something, but save a ton of breaks or multiple special team scores, I don't think the personnel on these teams would indicate a strong likelihood of a blowout. I'll take the points here.

5. Indiana +7 @Virginia: Hate to get back on the horse with the Hoosiers, but this is too attractive to pass up. Virginia was certainly underrated coming in to last week. However, now they go from being the nation's laughingstock to a 7 point favorite over a decent BCS team in one week? Really? I know Indiana on the road is risky proposition, but Virginia's offense remains among the worst in division 1, and IU's defense has not been bad at all this year, especially in sacks and tackles for loss, which is a big weakness for Virginia. On a neutral site, I can't say that I would make Virginia a favorite over IU, so a full TD is something I'll have to jump on here. UVA is probably a solid play as a dog in most cases, but teams like this are not supposed to be full TD favorites.

6. Wisconsin +16 1/2 @Ohio St: If you see it at 16 1/2, I would buy it up to 17. I understand some of the trepidation toward taking Wisconsin here, since the Badgers defense has not been very good, and this is a second of back to back roadies, which is always tough. Having said that, I would have pegged this line closer to 10 or 11 than bordering on 17. The truth is that Wisconsin's offense has been very good this year, and has shown good balance, which is a sign of sustainability in a tough environment. I happen to think that John Clay will be able to run on anyone this year. Their passing game under Tolzien has been good, and their shortcomings on defense are mostly covering downfield passes. For whatever reason, Jim Tressel generally chooses not to beat teams that way, so they probably match up better with Ohio St's offense than they did against other teams. Wisconsin has proven itself to be a pretty solid squad, and even if they fall behind by 20+, they have the offense to grab a backdoor if it comes to that. Another thing to ponder: Only 2 weeks ago Illinois was catching only 14 to Ohio St. Now Wisconsin is getting almost 17?? Not computing.

7. Florida -7 1/2 @LSU: Even if Tebow sits, this LSU team as constructed under Les Miles cannot compete with this Florida team if it plays well. Florida is tops in the country or close to it in every possible statistical category, both offensively and defensively. LSU is a total sham. They suck on their offensive line, their defense is overrated and passable only in the secondary. They've underachieved their way to a 5-0 start, but they should probably have 2 losses already. I don't want to hear about the 32 in a row at night in Baton Rouge or whatever, LSU's offense is going to have to play with poise and gumption and Jordan Jefferson will have to excel against this Florida defense for LSU to compete and that is just not going to happen. Throw in a big play or 3 from Florida, and you have the recipe for a lot of drunk cajuns feeling sorry for themselves by about the 8 minute mark of the second quarter. I think this is the game Urban Meyer has had circled for his guys, and they come out and play like everyone expected they would this year. Monumental coaching mismatch here as well, as the cameras will be alternating shots of a confused looking Les Miles with drool rolling down his chin while Urban Meyer nods approvingly at the proceedings. Don't forget how bad LSU got whipsawed last year in Gainesville. We might see Act II.

8. Alabama -4 1/2 @Ole Miss: I was a believer in Ole Miss last year and in the bowl season, and in the preseason musings, but they just have not shown enough here in the early going to suggest that they can hang with a top notch team like Bama, even at home. Ole Miss's results thus far have been underwhelming, while Bama's have been overwhleming, and you can say that the Tide's schedule has been significantly better than Ole Miss's thus far.It's becoming clear that their Ole Miss's niche is as the underdog that people aren't looking for, and not the hunted that everyone expects greatness from. They have a nice group of players, and Houstion Nutt is a solid coach, but they just aren't anywhere near as good as Alabama. Jevan Snead is terribly overrated. The Rebels are ranked 54th in passing efficiciency and Bama sports what is probably the best defense in the country. I just don't see how Ole Miss is going to be able to move the ball consistently on Alabama, and Bama has shown enough on offense (ranked 12th overall with a great run/pass mix) to indicate an ability to put up enough points to cover this one. QB Greg McElroy has been very good, and their running game has been solid as well. They are better on the perimeter than Ole Miss as well. Bama is just a class above Ole Miss right now. Later on, the Rebels might be a sensible play in the upcoming weeks especially after people start dogging them, but not now.

9. UCLA +3 1/2 v Oregon: Talk about a team that's due for a clunker. Oregon certainly fits the bill. They've looked great the past two weeks, but now they have to play on the road against a legitimately good defense. We've seen Oregon look positively lost on offense before, and I think we'll see it again. UCLA had a disappointing showing last week at Stanford, and coach Neuheisel was criticized for being to conservative in that game. Well, I'll tell you what: If I had Senor Turnover himself, Kevin Craft playing QB for me, I'd have fashioned the same game plan. Now he has his regular guy (Kevin Prince) back in there this week, so they can run the offense. Good for them too, because both of Oregon's corners are out with injury, and the word is that the Ducks are very thin back there to begin with. This one opened at 6 1/2 until the heavies bet it down to 3 1/2. I'm holding off, hoping some lemming Duck money will come in as gametime approaches, but I'll be happy with 3 1/2, as I think UCLA takes this one outright.

10. TCU -10 @Air Force: Lots of road teams this week I guess. This is not generally a spot I like, with a road team laying to a service academy, but the matchup is too perfect in this one. Air Force has been competent enough this year in the way of scoreboard results, but they have been uncharacteristically feeble on offense pretty much all year save the opening week shit kicking of whatever 1-AA school they played. Note: Against Minnesota, they moved the ball ok, but scored only 13 against a below average defense. In their last two games, they nothced only 12 first downs aand scored zero offensive touchdowns against San Diego St (!!!) and didn't score an offensive TD against navy last week. Now they face one of the most dominant defenses in the country in TCU, who you absolutely do not run on. QB Jefferson and RB Clark are both banged up with bad ankles. when they were both healthy last year, TCU held them to 7 first downs while being outgained 504-160. I'd suggest that TCU's offense is even better than last year, and you can say that Air Force's is certainly worse than last year based on the injuries and the recent results against far inferior defenses. I like the Falcons a lot, but this is a bad bad matchup for them, even if it snows in Colorado Springs on Saturday, which it might.

11. Arizona -4 @Washington: When I quote public betting percentages, I get those percentages from Wagerline. It's a good source because any Joe Schmo can log in there for free and enter the contests that they have every week, so you generally get a very significant number of people who make picks on there. In all the years I've used this site, for whatever reason, you never see a home underdog getting any more than about 50% of the public favor. You'll see road underdogs sometimes, because those are occasionally good teams, but almost never home dogs. This week, Washington is getting 62% of the public support. It's actually the 4th most popular home team this week. This is because Washington has had two very public games this year, the win over USC, and their game last week against ND in which they almost pulled out a win. Now they return home for a less sexy game with Arizona. Looking at this game on paper, I can see why Arizona is favored. Washington is having all kinds of problems defensively, ranked 112th against the run, while Arizona has run it extremely well this year. Overall, Washington's defense is ranked 117th, believe it or not. It must be pointed out that they've played some solid offensive squads this year, but 117th out of 120 speaks for itself. On the other side of the ball, Arizona has solid advantages as well. This looks like a game that the public gets crushed.

12. Stanford +1 @Oregon St: Apparently there are plenty of people who are not yet sold on Stanford. Don't count me among those people because I am. This is a solid squad. I can see, however, why you'd make Oregon St a favorite here. Corvalis is a tough place to play, the Beavs are a well coached squad most of the time, and Stanford has not been a juggernaut in recent years. Having said that, Stanford is the better team here. They have good balance on the offensive side of the ball and have held their own on defense. Oregon St, on the other hand is somewhat limited offensively, and extremely reliant on the Rodgers brothers for their offensive production. Sean Canfield is an ok quarterback, but he seldom goes downfield, and they have to convert third downs to keep drives alive. They'll be facing an aggressive defense this week, so if they lose yardage, it's going to be tough for them. I also see a big advantage in the running game for Stanford. If this game was being played on a nuetral field, by virtue of the stats and performances so far this year, I would make Stanford about a 6-7 point favorite. Corvalis is tough, but I hear it's not sold out. It certainly isn't worth 7-8 points of HFA.

13 @SMU +7 v East Carolina: SMU has quietly been improving themselves to the point where they are competing with legitimate squads. They were in their game at TCU last week until late, and have gone on the road and won what should have been two games. Their achilles heel is their defense and Bo Levi Mitchell's addiction to throwing it to the other team, but I think they have a good shot of playing well this week against ECU. First of all, ECU is the 102nd ranked offense in the country, and they are equally pedestrian in both phases. SMu actually ranks 68th in the country in total defense(yards per play), so that's not even that bad, and they've picked off 12 balls to boot, which actually leads the nation. Big problems for SMU potentially since ECU is opportunitic on defense, but these teams are statistically about even, maybe even a slight edge to SMU. Since SMU is getting a TD and they're at home, there's definite value there.


Others: Idaho should probably be favored at San Jose St based on their performance so far this year. They're actually getting 4. however, SJSU's stats are skewed because they've played Stanford, USC and Utah this year, so they're moving down in class. That's my only hesitation. I'll be taking the points.....Maryland is getting double digits at Wake, and we all know Wake is not a good significant favorite. They've been improving in that role, however. 12 is still too many in my opinion, though, even considering how good Riley Skinner has been lately....I like Colorado St a lot this week. They are getting 7 at home against what I think is an overrated team in Utah. CSU is throwing the ball pretty well, so they should be able to put up points, and it looks like a possible weather issue up there this weekend, which generally favors the home team......Also don't think Wyoming should be favored by 10 against anyone. New Mexico is a good candidate however, based on their overall douchebaggery this year, but they're getting better. I wouldn't be surprised if Locksley figured out a way to be in that one until the end....if the UCONN/ PITT spread hadn't fallen from 8 to 6 1/2 I would be in the foxhole with the Huskies this week. Statistcally it's pretty close, and Pitt generally doesn't enjoy much of a home field advantage at heinz Field. if I can get it at more than 7, I'll be hammering it. it would have been a musing at 8 or more....I think Purdue is the better team in their tilt with Minnesota. They can't be trusted though at such a short number(3) because they haven't figured out how to avoid giftwrapping victories for the other team. I'll be taking the points with them, though.

That's it for this week. Mike and I will be Sham-Pain to witness the continuing downward spiral that is Ron Zook's coaching career. Go Crying Ill-lie-and-whine!!