Well, you can add Butch Davis's name to the litany of idiots who can't seem to grasp the concept that they are responsible for using sound logic and judgement in end of game clock management situations. I won't rehash it, but the scene included having about 18 guys on the field as his QB is clocking the ball to set up for a 30 yard game tying FG. If you get a chance to see it, it was worse than the LSU debacle against Tennessee earlier this year. Apparently, the 10 second run off rule doesn't exist in college football, which turned out to be a good thing for Butch(and me).
7-5 for the numbered musings. Too bad I didn't just include the also rans in those too because they're 5-0. Moving on.
13. Notre Dame +3 v Miami(Fla): Miami looks a little bit better on paper than Notre Dame, but shit, they looked a hell of a lot better than Virginia and South Florida too, and lost both of those games. They come in to this game at 7-5, same as Notre Dame, but these teams are heading in different directions. ND has won three in a row including wins against Utah and USC, while Miami is coming off two losses in a row, the last of which got their coach fired, it was so uninspiring. Despite the opponent being Notre Dame, I can't see how Miami is motivated at all for this one. They just want to get the season over with and move on to the Al Golden era.This should also be one of the biggest coaching advantages of the bowl season, with Brian kelly against whoever lame duck got stuck coaching this game for Miami. ND has been excited to prepare for this one, as Kelly has mentioned many times, and their staff sees it as easily the most important game of their tenure so far. Even though Miami in most cases should handle this ND team, I can't see it happening here...I actually almost expect a rather comforable ND win in this one.
14. Florida St +3 v South Carolina: Another ACC v SEC game. Don't like taking the ACC in these games, but I find myself doing it again. 68% of the public is on South Carolina here, but in my opinion, these teams are pretty evenly matched for the most part, except FSU is more consistent in all phases. South Carolina is having all kinds of trouble stopping the pass, and it appears that Christian Ponder will be pretty much totally healthy for this game. FSU is stronger overall on the defensive side, and they will be pressuring Garcia all night(#2 in country in sacks), never a good thing for the Gamecocks. Actually, USC can pressure the QB as well(#6) but I would be much more comfortable with Ponder than with Garcia. Motivation is probably on FSU's side as well. coming off the destruction of Florida and with a new staff still looking for reasons to get the kids to believe. South Carolina also has a penchant for tanking bowl games under Spurrier as well. Like the points here.
Others: can't make a call on USF/Clemson...going with the under. I'm also going to take a flyer on UCF to cover the 7 against UGA, since this appears to be a major motivational edge for them, as UGA is also just going through the motions here, like a lot of teams. UCF os also pretty good on offense and defense..they have a chance to give Georgia fits on both sides of the ball, even though Georgia has much better athletes. By the way, look at Aaron Murray's stats this year. WAYYYYY better than Matthew Stafford at the same time in their development.
Take care!!
Friday, December 31, 2010
Thursday, December 30, 2010
More Musings...
Some of these were from previous entries. Still struggling to keep this up to date.
Air Force cashes another ticket, so we move to 5-2 for the season. This was another fortunate game, as Air Force never really got their offense rolling and scored their only TD on an 12 yard drive, but I thought Ga Tech would find a way to lose after the season they've had, and they did. Good fortune, I like it.
8. West Virginia -2 1/2 v NC State: Bet Us has it now at 2.5, so I jumped on it. When I saw this matchup, I assumed that I would be on the Wolfpack, considering I almost always back the Pack and at the same time, I always look for reasons to fade Bill Stewart and the 'Eers. Despite my deep admiration for Russell Wilson, I have to go with WV here. First, although there will be a schematic disadvantage for them, the WV players are almost certainly going to give a solid effort for lame duck Stewart. Defensively, they will have a strong advantage over the Wolfpack as WV ranks highly in almost every statistical category. They stop the run, they stop the pass, they rush the passer...very solid. On the other hand NC State is actually ranked only 73rd in overall ypp and can't run the ball to save their lives. That will put all the burden on Wilson, and NC State's OL has had a hard time protecting him. They'd better get that buttoned up quickly because WV is 3rd in the country in sacks. When WV has the ball, the defense will be in bettter position as well, but not to the extent that WV will enjoy. WV's pass offense under Geno Smith has been very good over the past 3-4 weeks, and Nc State is pourous against the pass. Close game, but I think WV handles NC State.
9. Iowa + 2 1/2 v Missouri: This is more of a hunch play, but I think Iowa will come out more motivated than Missouri will. Iowa was embarrassed in their last game against Minnesota, and they have heard for a month about how they lost 3 straight to finish the year. Although they had some guys suspended, they have guys that can step up, and there isn't anyone missing from a very disciplined and solid Iowa defense. If you check the numbers this year, Mizzou has been getting handled offensively by some teams that can only be classified as mediocre and that's on a good day. This will probably be the best defense that Missouri will face. Like I said, it's a hunch, but I played this one.
10. Baylor -1 v Illinois: Obviously, I'm not impartial here, but I know when they're facing a bad matchup for them, and Baylor is it. Big time coaching advantage with Briles v anybody in Orange and Blue. Also, Baylor's running Qb is just the right kind of guy that gives the Illini fits. They do ok vs plodding offenses,. but not against the fast paced/dymanic offenses like Baylor. On defense, they appear to be good enough to keep Illinois off balance. Better offense, comparable defenses, Ron Zook in the house...
Others: East Carolina can't stop a soul on defense, and that coincides with Maryland's offense finding their rhythm in the passing game. ECU can throw it too, but I see no resistance from these guys on the defensive side of the ball. I'm laying off a full unit because I question Maryland's chops to cover the number(-7)......I also lean toward Okie St(-4 1/2) over Arizona. That's it for now. take Care.
Noelle Nicole LaVette was born yesterday, 6 lbs 13 oz, 20 inches long. Everyone doing well, of course. Glad to spend 5 minutes taking a look at things before we get back to marveling at her and the job Carissa did yesterday.
First of all, I was glad to see Illinois prove me wrong on the musing that may or may not have been coherent from a couple nights ago. I've been wrong on them a lot this year...which is a good thing because I'm always against them.
11. SMU -7 v Army: Too much of a mismatch here. Army's defense is going to have a lot of trouble with the balance of the SMU offense, and SMU surprisingly has been solid in both phases of the defense as well. They did well against Navy, and I don't think Army has the chops to wolk into it's first bowl game in forever and compete effectively.
12. Syracuse pk v Kansas St: One of the few teams who will be a good matchup for Syracuse in my opinion. K State cannot stop the run. They have been brutalized by rushing attacks all year, and have been successful only when their own running attack gives the opponants all kinds of trouble. I don't think that will be the case here, because Syracuse has been good against the run and mostly sound in all phases defensively. The return game is the only issue for Syracuse here, since I have to assume that they can scheme for the K State running game.
Others: Going with North Carolina (-1) in somewhat of a tossup game with Tennessee. I don't like choosing the ACC in a matchup with the SEC, but these teams appear to be mostly evenly matched with a slight edge to UNC, since they pass the ball a little better and are slightly better on defense. Also, they have a true freshman QB against a 5th year senior who has had good success this year, and I"ll take Butch Davis over Derrek Dooley in the coaching matchup. I like Tennessee's offense lately, though.....Also going to go with a hunch and take the 14 with Washington in a matchup of the massacre Nebraska laid on them back in September. How Nebraska can be motivated for this game I have no idea. Also, when Washington played Nebraska, it was during the Taylor Martinez scorched earth tour, which came to a close after he sustained his ankle injury. At some point, Sarkisian's team has to show up in a big game, maybe they can keep it within two TDs.
Take care!
Air Force cashes another ticket, so we move to 5-2 for the season. This was another fortunate game, as Air Force never really got their offense rolling and scored their only TD on an 12 yard drive, but I thought Ga Tech would find a way to lose after the season they've had, and they did. Good fortune, I like it.
8. West Virginia -2 1/2 v NC State: Bet Us has it now at 2.5, so I jumped on it. When I saw this matchup, I assumed that I would be on the Wolfpack, considering I almost always back the Pack and at the same time, I always look for reasons to fade Bill Stewart and the 'Eers. Despite my deep admiration for Russell Wilson, I have to go with WV here. First, although there will be a schematic disadvantage for them, the WV players are almost certainly going to give a solid effort for lame duck Stewart. Defensively, they will have a strong advantage over the Wolfpack as WV ranks highly in almost every statistical category. They stop the run, they stop the pass, they rush the passer...very solid. On the other hand NC State is actually ranked only 73rd in overall ypp and can't run the ball to save their lives. That will put all the burden on Wilson, and NC State's OL has had a hard time protecting him. They'd better get that buttoned up quickly because WV is 3rd in the country in sacks. When WV has the ball, the defense will be in bettter position as well, but not to the extent that WV will enjoy. WV's pass offense under Geno Smith has been very good over the past 3-4 weeks, and Nc State is pourous against the pass. Close game, but I think WV handles NC State.
9. Iowa + 2 1/2 v Missouri: This is more of a hunch play, but I think Iowa will come out more motivated than Missouri will. Iowa was embarrassed in their last game against Minnesota, and they have heard for a month about how they lost 3 straight to finish the year. Although they had some guys suspended, they have guys that can step up, and there isn't anyone missing from a very disciplined and solid Iowa defense. If you check the numbers this year, Mizzou has been getting handled offensively by some teams that can only be classified as mediocre and that's on a good day. This will probably be the best defense that Missouri will face. Like I said, it's a hunch, but I played this one.
10. Baylor -1 v Illinois: Obviously, I'm not impartial here, but I know when they're facing a bad matchup for them, and Baylor is it. Big time coaching advantage with Briles v anybody in Orange and Blue. Also, Baylor's running Qb is just the right kind of guy that gives the Illini fits. They do ok vs plodding offenses,. but not against the fast paced/dymanic offenses like Baylor. On defense, they appear to be good enough to keep Illinois off balance. Better offense, comparable defenses, Ron Zook in the house...
Others: East Carolina can't stop a soul on defense, and that coincides with Maryland's offense finding their rhythm in the passing game. ECU can throw it too, but I see no resistance from these guys on the defensive side of the ball. I'm laying off a full unit because I question Maryland's chops to cover the number(-7)......I also lean toward Okie St(-4 1/2) over Arizona. That's it for now. take Care.
Noelle Nicole LaVette was born yesterday, 6 lbs 13 oz, 20 inches long. Everyone doing well, of course. Glad to spend 5 minutes taking a look at things before we get back to marveling at her and the job Carissa did yesterday.
First of all, I was glad to see Illinois prove me wrong on the musing that may or may not have been coherent from a couple nights ago. I've been wrong on them a lot this year...which is a good thing because I'm always against them.
11. SMU -7 v Army: Too much of a mismatch here. Army's defense is going to have a lot of trouble with the balance of the SMU offense, and SMU surprisingly has been solid in both phases of the defense as well. They did well against Navy, and I don't think Army has the chops to wolk into it's first bowl game in forever and compete effectively.
12. Syracuse pk v Kansas St: One of the few teams who will be a good matchup for Syracuse in my opinion. K State cannot stop the run. They have been brutalized by rushing attacks all year, and have been successful only when their own running attack gives the opponants all kinds of trouble. I don't think that will be the case here, because Syracuse has been good against the run and mostly sound in all phases defensively. The return game is the only issue for Syracuse here, since I have to assume that they can scheme for the K State running game.
Others: Going with North Carolina (-1) in somewhat of a tossup game with Tennessee. I don't like choosing the ACC in a matchup with the SEC, but these teams appear to be mostly evenly matched with a slight edge to UNC, since they pass the ball a little better and are slightly better on defense. Also, they have a true freshman QB against a 5th year senior who has had good success this year, and I"ll take Butch Davis over Derrek Dooley in the coaching matchup. I like Tennessee's offense lately, though.....Also going to go with a hunch and take the 14 with Washington in a matchup of the massacre Nebraska laid on them back in September. How Nebraska can be motivated for this game I have no idea. Also, when Washington played Nebraska, it was during the Taylor Martinez scorched earth tour, which came to a close after he sustained his ankle injury. At some point, Sarkisian's team has to show up in a big game, maybe they can keep it within two TDs.
Take care!
Monday, December 27, 2010
Independence Bowl 12/27
So far we're 4-2 through six games, lucky break last night with FIU because it looked to me after watching that game that Toledo was the right side. Hey, I can't bitch about getting no breaks the entire bowl season now..already got one. I hope everyone had a good Christmas. Most probably know this, but we've got an addition to the family coming on 12/29(Wednesday), so I will be paying attention to more important things than making uninformed football picks. Anyway, we move on to tonight:
7. Air Force -2 1/2 v Georgia Tech: You can get this at 2.5 in a lot of online shops,(including Sportsbook.com). My outlets were both -3, but one was even money and the other was -105, so I just bought it to 2.5 for -120. Obviously, this is an interesting game here since both teams are experts at running the option. Also, Paul Johnson and Troy Calhoun are two of my favorite coaches in CFB. Really, I wish they weren't playing each other so I could root for both. Oh well. Overall, this season can be classified as mostly shitty for Georgia Tech. They had a nice win against North Carolina as a dog early in the year, but mostly just played the patsy to the rest of the decent squads on their schedule, even dropping an early game to what turned out to be a horrendous Kansas team coached by home run hire Turner Gill. You remember Turner Gill, right? The guy that the mainstream media said should have gotten the Auburn job over Gene Chizik? Well, the Jackets lost to that guy's team. Tech's defense is terrible..they have had trouble stopping any and all offenses over the past couple of years, even last year in their BCS season. They are ranked 76th in total defense, 93rd agaisnt the run(ypc) and 70th against the pass. Believe it or not, AF can throw it effectively when they want to, ranking second in the country in yards per attempt and 15th in pass efficiency. I can actually see a scnario where Calhoun might see a weakness for Tech make it part of his game plan. GT, on the other hand is pretty much near the bottom in all passing categories, as their ability to throw pretty much left with Demaryius Thomas last year. The one issue with Air Force is their run defense, which was 96th this year, but they handled Navy well, and most of the big yardage they gave up was in games they won...maybe some garbage time situations. They can effectively game plan for the option, and they have experience stopping it. Also, they shut down Oklahoma's run, they shut down Utah's...they have some good performances there, so I'm not too concerned. At the end of the day, I think they are a better defense, and they are more balanced on offense than Georgia Tech. I also think it's asking a lot for Tech to come out and beat a disciplined, solid team like Air Force considering the season they've had.
That's it for now...hopefully I'll have some more stuff later on.
7. Air Force -2 1/2 v Georgia Tech: You can get this at 2.5 in a lot of online shops,(including Sportsbook.com). My outlets were both -3, but one was even money and the other was -105, so I just bought it to 2.5 for -120. Obviously, this is an interesting game here since both teams are experts at running the option. Also, Paul Johnson and Troy Calhoun are two of my favorite coaches in CFB. Really, I wish they weren't playing each other so I could root for both. Oh well. Overall, this season can be classified as mostly shitty for Georgia Tech. They had a nice win against North Carolina as a dog early in the year, but mostly just played the patsy to the rest of the decent squads on their schedule, even dropping an early game to what turned out to be a horrendous Kansas team coached by home run hire Turner Gill. You remember Turner Gill, right? The guy that the mainstream media said should have gotten the Auburn job over Gene Chizik? Well, the Jackets lost to that guy's team. Tech's defense is terrible..they have had trouble stopping any and all offenses over the past couple of years, even last year in their BCS season. They are ranked 76th in total defense, 93rd agaisnt the run(ypc) and 70th against the pass. Believe it or not, AF can throw it effectively when they want to, ranking second in the country in yards per attempt and 15th in pass efficiency. I can actually see a scnario where Calhoun might see a weakness for Tech make it part of his game plan. GT, on the other hand is pretty much near the bottom in all passing categories, as their ability to throw pretty much left with Demaryius Thomas last year. The one issue with Air Force is their run defense, which was 96th this year, but they handled Navy well, and most of the big yardage they gave up was in games they won...maybe some garbage time situations. They can effectively game plan for the option, and they have experience stopping it. Also, they shut down Oklahoma's run, they shut down Utah's...they have some good performances there, so I'm not too concerned. At the end of the day, I think they are a better defense, and they are more balanced on offense than Georgia Tech. I also think it's asking a lot for Tech to come out and beat a disciplined, solid team like Air Force considering the season they've had.
That's it for now...hopefully I'll have some more stuff later on.
Friday, December 24, 2010
Bowl Musings through 12/26
I'm including the time stamp of the email I sent, since I forgot to post this here.
Wed, December 22, 2010 5:19:27 PMMore Bowl Musings
From: Peter LavetteView Contact
To: asavick@hotmail.com; bradlazzari@hotmail.com; kevin.haas@chrobinson.com; jonathan hyun; mikelavette@yahoo.com; jefflavette@yahoo.com; jim.turco@sbcglobal.net
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1-1 so far on numbered bowl musings with a lean to Troy which turned out to be a win. I had absolutely no idea on the game last night between Southern Miss and Louisville, so I didn't even bother sending out any thoughts. I thought both the spread and over/under were well lined, and that both were a complete tossup, so believe it or not, I laid off on that game...I thuink it's the first bowl game in 5 years that I had no action on. Good thing too. The spread ended up at Louiville -2.5. They won 31-28. The over/under was 60. It was the right game to lay off of.
3. Boise -16 v Utah: I should mention that this is play #1 for the LaVette family picks, and it's by a longshot. For some reason, this spread has dropped to 16, maybe it might go back up within the next couple of hours, who knows? Obviously, I'm never all that keen on laying this many points in a bowl game, but Utah had a chance to hang with a true contender in early November and got shellacked by TCU on their home field by 40. A lot of times, when I'm capping these bowl games, I try to put myself in each coach's shoes and try to gameplan for the opponent. If there's a clear strategy that I can come up with, that's a good sign for that team. In Boise's case, it's pretty obvious that they are going to want to stuff Utah's run and make backup QB Terrence Cain(the starter Wynn is doubtful) beat them with a passing attack. Since Utah has either failed to run or struggled mighttily in most of their last 5 games, this probably won't be too tough for the #4 rush defense in the country. In all seriousness, Utah should be on a 5 game losing streak. They lost to ND and TCU, and escaped by the skin of their teeth after being outplayed by SDSU, AirForce and BYU. They couldn't run effectively on AirForice...I'm going to assume they won't run on Boise either. On the flip side, how will Whittingham(an admittedly good coach) attack Boise? They are too balanced to concentrate on one area. You can only hope you just play out of your ass against them. I think Utah's only chance to compete in this one would be if Boise was completely unmotivated and dying to get the hell out of there. I don't think that will be the case, since they got into a mini brawl the other day with the Utes during some pre bowl function, and one of the Utes made fun of them on twitter.
"I can't wait to get out here wit these Boise State or should I say Girlse State they a bunch of cheerleaders...lol."-Utah WR DeVonte Christopher. My guess is that Boise comes out firing, and the Utah team that couldn't move it against Notre Dame and laid down against TCU shows up. 41-13 Boise.
4. San Diego St -3 1/2 v Navy: I'm sure that everyone knows that I love betting on service academies, and especially on navy in bowl games, but in this case, I really think the value lies with SDSU. The Aztecs have been a very solid team this year. they've lost 4 games: Heartbreakers(and controversial losses) to BYU and Utah by a FG, a last second loss at Missouri on a 68 yard TD pass a loss at TCU that turned out to be TCU's only close game all year. They are ranked 16th on ypp on defense and 12th in ypp on offense. They have very good balance on offense as well, as they have been good on the ground and also have a good QB in Ryan Lindley and two playmaking receivers. Navy is always a tough nut to crack, but this is one of the few years n which they really haven't played anyone. They've run on everyone, as usual, but the vast majority of the defenses they've played are ranked in the bottom fourth of the country...only Maryland and Air Force from their schedule were in the top 3/4 of teams in ypp, and they scored 14 and 6 points in those games. As I mentioned, SDSU is ranked 16th. That doesn't mean that they'll shut down Navy..far from it, since they gave up the requesite 300+ on the ground against Air Force, but that didn't stop them from winning the game. But navy is going to have all kinds of trouble stopping the SDSU passing attack. For the year they are ranked 86th against the pass, having been torched by CMU (36/58 394 3/0), ECU (43/65 413 5/0) and even Army's Trent Steelman, generally considered the worst passer in America (11/20 140 2/0). SDSU is a lot better than those guys in the passing game, and they have a good run game to boot. Also, remember that Aztec coach Brady Hoke handled Navy pretty easily a couple years ago when he was at Ball State with much weaker defensive takent than he has now. I just think that Navy is going to have a hard time, especially on defense with what looks to be the best team they will play this year.
5. @Hawaii -10 v Tulsa: As usual, Hawaii gets to play a home game for it's bowl. Hawaii is 10-3..they've had a really nice year. They are the top passing team in the country yardage wise, and they are matched up with Tulsa, who is ranked 119th out of 120 teams in passing yards against. I don't see any scenario where Hawaii doesn't throw at will on Tulsa. Now obviously, this spread isn't out of control, and that's because Tulsa is no slouch on offense themselves. However, Hawaii has one of the best defenses that they've had in a long time, actually ranking 20th overall in yards per play nationwide. They've really been dominant if you look at their whole body of work, and the WAC this year was comparable to CUSA. Hawaii proved itself by beating Nevada and holding that rushing attack to only 293 yards of total offense. If you take away the prison raping they took at Boise, they've averaged 520 yards and given up 311, a whopping 200+ difference that's about as good as anyone in the country. Tulsa has a sizable advantage in the return games, but if Hawaii can just hold their own in that area, they should be in very good shape to cover this one. I think they'll be in the 50s for sure.
6. FIU +2 v Toledo: This is a total shit game, but FIU looks like a better team to me. They're probably getting points because they went 6-6 while Toldo was 8-4, but you could make a case that FIU played a much tougher schedule, and I think the Sun Belt is probably a step up as far as speed from the MAC. Troy showed that when the hammered Ohio a couple days ago in whatever bowl it was that they played in. FIU has done ok in games against bowl opponents, having hung close with Texas A&M, Maryland(outgained and should have beat them) and Pitt(not as bad as the final score indicated. They also badly outgained Rutgers and blew out another SunBelt bowl team Troy at Troy. At the end of the day, I just think that we'll see a pretty solid speed difference in this game, even though Toledo has some good players on offense. I'll take the points here.
That's it for now. I'll have some more in the coming days. Merry Christmas to everyone.
Wed, December 22, 2010 5:19:27 PMMore Bowl Musings
From: Peter Lavette
To: asavick@hotmail.com; bradlazzari@hotmail.com; kevin.haas@chrobinson.com; jonathan hyun
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1-1 so far on numbered bowl musings with a lean to Troy which turned out to be a win. I had absolutely no idea on the game last night between Southern Miss and Louisville, so I didn't even bother sending out any thoughts. I thought both the spread and over/under were well lined, and that both were a complete tossup, so believe it or not, I laid off on that game...I thuink it's the first bowl game in 5 years that I had no action on. Good thing too. The spread ended up at Louiville -2.5. They won 31-28. The over/under was 60. It was the right game to lay off of.
3. Boise -16 v Utah: I should mention that this is play #1 for the LaVette family picks, and it's by a longshot. For some reason, this spread has dropped to 16, maybe it might go back up within the next couple of hours, who knows? Obviously, I'm never all that keen on laying this many points in a bowl game, but Utah had a chance to hang with a true contender in early November and got shellacked by TCU on their home field by 40. A lot of times, when I'm capping these bowl games, I try to put myself in each coach's shoes and try to gameplan for the opponent. If there's a clear strategy that I can come up with, that's a good sign for that team. In Boise's case, it's pretty obvious that they are going to want to stuff Utah's run and make backup QB Terrence Cain(the starter Wynn is doubtful) beat them with a passing attack. Since Utah has either failed to run or struggled mighttily in most of their last 5 games, this probably won't be too tough for the #4 rush defense in the country. In all seriousness, Utah should be on a 5 game losing streak. They lost to ND and TCU, and escaped by the skin of their teeth after being outplayed by SDSU, AirForce and BYU. They couldn't run effectively on AirForice...I'm going to assume they won't run on Boise either. On the flip side, how will Whittingham(an admittedly good coach) attack Boise? They are too balanced to concentrate on one area. You can only hope you just play out of your ass against them. I think Utah's only chance to compete in this one would be if Boise was completely unmotivated and dying to get the hell out of there. I don't think that will be the case, since they got into a mini brawl the other day with the Utes during some pre bowl function, and one of the Utes made fun of them on twitter.
"I can't wait to get out here wit these Boise State or should I say Girlse State they a bunch of cheerleaders...lol."-Utah WR DeVonte Christopher. My guess is that Boise comes out firing, and the Utah team that couldn't move it against Notre Dame and laid down against TCU shows up. 41-13 Boise.
4. San Diego St -3 1/2 v Navy: I'm sure that everyone knows that I love betting on service academies, and especially on navy in bowl games, but in this case, I really think the value lies with SDSU. The Aztecs have been a very solid team this year. they've lost 4 games: Heartbreakers(and controversial losses) to BYU and Utah by a FG, a last second loss at Missouri on a 68 yard TD pass a loss at TCU that turned out to be TCU's only close game all year. They are ranked 16th on ypp on defense and 12th in ypp on offense. They have very good balance on offense as well, as they have been good on the ground and also have a good QB in Ryan Lindley and two playmaking receivers. Navy is always a tough nut to crack, but this is one of the few years n which they really haven't played anyone. They've run on everyone, as usual, but the vast majority of the defenses they've played are ranked in the bottom fourth of the country...only Maryland and Air Force from their schedule were in the top 3/4 of teams in ypp, and they scored 14 and 6 points in those games. As I mentioned, SDSU is ranked 16th. That doesn't mean that they'll shut down Navy..far from it, since they gave up the requesite 300+ on the ground against Air Force, but that didn't stop them from winning the game. But navy is going to have all kinds of trouble stopping the SDSU passing attack. For the year they are ranked 86th against the pass, having been torched by CMU (36/58 394 3/0), ECU (43/65 413 5/0) and even Army's Trent Steelman, generally considered the worst passer in America (11/20 140 2/0). SDSU is a lot better than those guys in the passing game, and they have a good run game to boot. Also, remember that Aztec coach Brady Hoke handled Navy pretty easily a couple years ago when he was at Ball State with much weaker defensive takent than he has now. I just think that Navy is going to have a hard time, especially on defense with what looks to be the best team they will play this year.
5. @Hawaii -10 v Tulsa: As usual, Hawaii gets to play a home game for it's bowl. Hawaii is 10-3..they've had a really nice year. They are the top passing team in the country yardage wise, and they are matched up with Tulsa, who is ranked 119th out of 120 teams in passing yards against. I don't see any scenario where Hawaii doesn't throw at will on Tulsa. Now obviously, this spread isn't out of control, and that's because Tulsa is no slouch on offense themselves. However, Hawaii has one of the best defenses that they've had in a long time, actually ranking 20th overall in yards per play nationwide. They've really been dominant if you look at their whole body of work, and the WAC this year was comparable to CUSA. Hawaii proved itself by beating Nevada and holding that rushing attack to only 293 yards of total offense. If you take away the prison raping they took at Boise, they've averaged 520 yards and given up 311, a whopping 200+ difference that's about as good as anyone in the country. Tulsa has a sizable advantage in the return games, but if Hawaii can just hold their own in that area, they should be in very good shape to cover this one. I think they'll be in the 50s for sure.
6. FIU +2 v Toledo: This is a total shit game, but FIU looks like a better team to me. They're probably getting points because they went 6-6 while Toldo was 8-4, but you could make a case that FIU played a much tougher schedule, and I think the Sun Belt is probably a step up as far as speed from the MAC. Troy showed that when the hammered Ohio a couple days ago in whatever bowl it was that they played in. FIU has done ok in games against bowl opponents, having hung close with Texas A&M, Maryland(outgained and should have beat them) and Pitt(not as bad as the final score indicated. They also badly outgained Rutgers and blew out another SunBelt bowl team Troy at Troy. At the end of the day, I just think that we'll see a pretty solid speed difference in this game, even though Toledo has some good players on offense. I'll take the points here.
That's it for now. I'll have some more in the coming days. Merry Christmas to everyone.
Saturday, December 18, 2010
Early Bowl Musings
OK everyone, let's get started on these bowls. Even I, the ardent bowl supporter, must admit that it's hard to get excitred for some of these, and the three that will be going on tomorrow are certainly not anything to write home about. Before I get started, however, I want to cover a couple things:
First, I feel the need to directly address Jim for what I believe will be the first time: My wife thinks that your brother Marty sucks ass and can't stop a puck if his life depended on it. She also thinks his mask "looks stupid with those dumb gargoyles on it." I don't feel that strongly about it, but I would go so far as to recommend getting in the way of the occasional puck after it's coughed up by Brent Seabrook. Maybe one or two out of ten. Is that too much to ask? I realize that Keith and Seabrook's polite requests for opposing forwards to please leave the crease have been met with middle fingers and other rude gestures, but shit, make a tough save every once in awhile. If you could pass along those thoughts to Marty, that would be great.
I'm not going to spend a lot of time on the systematic emasculating of the Big ten. Everyone knows that they've completely fucked up that league with the idiotic divisional lineups, and further embarrassed themselves with all these gay trophies, but the names of the divisions, which I won't repeat, have made the league a laughingstock. Why they didn't just go ahead and name them the hogsmokers and cockgobblers, I'll never know.
I also noticed that there's a lot of hand wringing and nervousness about the Bears and Vikings playing at the new Gopher stadium outdoors, since the field was built with no expectation for any games after about November 20th or so. As a result, the field will be frozen, and dangerous since it'll be below zero. Boy, after last week's Bears game, and now this fiasco, that suggested 18 game schedule that will take the regular season to mid to late January sure seems like a good idea doesn't it? Let's add two more weeks of this shit!! Ok..on to the games. None of the games on Saturday
1. BYU -11 1/2 v UTEP: I believe this is the only time this year that I have recommended BYU in a game, but even as a significant favorite, I have to back them here. This is a battle of 6-6 teams, and between them, there really isn't a significant victory among the 12 combined wins of the two except BYU's win at home against San Diego St, and that game is still under investigation. However, it can't be denied that BYU got on a nice roll at the end of the year, both offensively and defensively. Although the Mountain West was borderline pathetic this year, BYU still enjoys a significant strength of schedule advantage over UTEP...they are clearly a step up from what UTEP is used to playing. Defensively, UTEP has had a hard time stopping anyone, so I'd expect the Jake Heaps/Luke Ashworth combo to have continued success against a secondary that game up chunks of yards to some sad sack offenses. UTEP was consistently outgained by what has been measured as the 117th toughest schedule. Their wins have been against the dregs of college football...New Mexico, New Mexico State, Memphis, Rice, Arkansas Pine Bluff...you get the picture. BYU is clearly the best team they've faced. In order to stay close, they are going to have to throw the ball down field with effectiveness. Based on their success in that area this year, I don't see it. QB Trevor Vittatoe has been hurt all year, and needs surgery on his ankle. Here are some of his numbers this year: V Tulsa the 104th ranked d in YPA, he went 8/20 for 100 yards, 0 TD 1 INT. V Tulane, 73rd ranked, he was 10/21 for 102 yards 1 TD 2 INT. VS UAB, 83rd ranked, he was 15/33 160, 0/3. He was occasionally good, but against a real defense being coached by a real coach, I think he'll struggle, and if that's the case, the game won't be close.
2. Fresno State +2 v Northern Illinois: Fresno usually can be capped by looking at their opponent. If they are facing a BCS opponent that's supposed to beat them, they get up for it and play inspired. If not, they don't give a shit and get beat, much like last year when a terrible Wyoming team that was a 12 point underdog beat them outright. This year is a bit of a mixed bag, as they are playing a MAC team, but they're the underdog in the game. NIU is favored because they had some great stats in a weak MAC this year, and on paper it looks like they will be able to run the ball on Fresno, but on the flip side, Fresno should be able to run and pass on NIU on the blue turf in Boise. This is a step up for NIU in class, and I'm not comfortable with them being a favorite in this one, especially when Jerry Kill won't be around to coach them. Pat Hill is a complete moron, but sometimes that doesn't matter. Fresno has a good passing game, a very strong running back who will be back from a previous injury, and I think they will be properly motivated in their underdog role. I'll be very surprised if NIU can pull out a victory.
No opinion on the Ohio/Troy game. I think you'll see a speed advantage with Troy, so I might be tempted to go that way, but they have had big troubles this year on defense. Ohio's starting QB will be out, so with the better proximity and the speed advantage, I'll probably lay the short number with Troy(-2)
That's it for now, next bowl game is Tuesday..I'll be back before then.
First, I feel the need to directly address Jim for what I believe will be the first time: My wife thinks that your brother Marty sucks ass and can't stop a puck if his life depended on it. She also thinks his mask "looks stupid with those dumb gargoyles on it." I don't feel that strongly about it, but I would go so far as to recommend getting in the way of the occasional puck after it's coughed up by Brent Seabrook. Maybe one or two out of ten. Is that too much to ask? I realize that Keith and Seabrook's polite requests for opposing forwards to please leave the crease have been met with middle fingers and other rude gestures, but shit, make a tough save every once in awhile. If you could pass along those thoughts to Marty, that would be great.
I'm not going to spend a lot of time on the systematic emasculating of the Big ten. Everyone knows that they've completely fucked up that league with the idiotic divisional lineups, and further embarrassed themselves with all these gay trophies, but the names of the divisions, which I won't repeat, have made the league a laughingstock. Why they didn't just go ahead and name them the hogsmokers and cockgobblers, I'll never know.
I also noticed that there's a lot of hand wringing and nervousness about the Bears and Vikings playing at the new Gopher stadium outdoors, since the field was built with no expectation for any games after about November 20th or so. As a result, the field will be frozen, and dangerous since it'll be below zero. Boy, after last week's Bears game, and now this fiasco, that suggested 18 game schedule that will take the regular season to mid to late January sure seems like a good idea doesn't it? Let's add two more weeks of this shit!! Ok..on to the games. None of the games on Saturday
1. BYU -11 1/2 v UTEP: I believe this is the only time this year that I have recommended BYU in a game, but even as a significant favorite, I have to back them here. This is a battle of 6-6 teams, and between them, there really isn't a significant victory among the 12 combined wins of the two except BYU's win at home against San Diego St, and that game is still under investigation. However, it can't be denied that BYU got on a nice roll at the end of the year, both offensively and defensively. Although the Mountain West was borderline pathetic this year, BYU still enjoys a significant strength of schedule advantage over UTEP...they are clearly a step up from what UTEP is used to playing. Defensively, UTEP has had a hard time stopping anyone, so I'd expect the Jake Heaps/Luke Ashworth combo to have continued success against a secondary that game up chunks of yards to some sad sack offenses. UTEP was consistently outgained by what has been measured as the 117th toughest schedule. Their wins have been against the dregs of college football...New Mexico, New Mexico State, Memphis, Rice, Arkansas Pine Bluff...you get the picture. BYU is clearly the best team they've faced. In order to stay close, they are going to have to throw the ball down field with effectiveness. Based on their success in that area this year, I don't see it. QB Trevor Vittatoe has been hurt all year, and needs surgery on his ankle. Here are some of his numbers this year: V Tulsa the 104th ranked d in YPA, he went 8/20 for 100 yards, 0 TD 1 INT. V Tulane, 73rd ranked, he was 10/21 for 102 yards 1 TD 2 INT. VS UAB, 83rd ranked, he was 15/33 160, 0/3. He was occasionally good, but against a real defense being coached by a real coach, I think he'll struggle, and if that's the case, the game won't be close.
2. Fresno State +2 v Northern Illinois: Fresno usually can be capped by looking at their opponent. If they are facing a BCS opponent that's supposed to beat them, they get up for it and play inspired. If not, they don't give a shit and get beat, much like last year when a terrible Wyoming team that was a 12 point underdog beat them outright. This year is a bit of a mixed bag, as they are playing a MAC team, but they're the underdog in the game. NIU is favored because they had some great stats in a weak MAC this year, and on paper it looks like they will be able to run the ball on Fresno, but on the flip side, Fresno should be able to run and pass on NIU on the blue turf in Boise. This is a step up for NIU in class, and I'm not comfortable with them being a favorite in this one, especially when Jerry Kill won't be around to coach them. Pat Hill is a complete moron, but sometimes that doesn't matter. Fresno has a good passing game, a very strong running back who will be back from a previous injury, and I think they will be properly motivated in their underdog role. I'll be very surprised if NIU can pull out a victory.
No opinion on the Ohio/Troy game. I think you'll see a speed advantage with Troy, so I might be tempted to go that way, but they have had big troubles this year on defense. Ohio's starting QB will be out, so with the better proximity and the speed advantage, I'll probably lay the short number with Troy(-2)
That's it for now, next bowl game is Tuesday..I'll be back before then.
Week 14 Musings Continued
Yikes...never did post this....sorry.
OK....here I am watching this stupid Illinois game at all hours of the night, and I am reminded once again of how mind numbingly stupid most football coaches are. The big surprise is that I am not even going to talk about the Zooker or Less Miles or Bill Stewart. There is a new kid on the black, who can out-meathead the rest of the meatheads. That meathead is Pat Hill, Fresno State head coach. Consider: You are up 19-17 in the 3rd quarter. You score a TD to make it 25-17. Great!! An extra point makes it 26-17, a 9 point lead and a 2 possession game! Whoo, it was a nailbiter there, but now you have some breathing room. except you don't have breathing room because this imbecile went for 2 so he could be up 10, since that it a more tidy score I suppose. Well, now when you don't get the conversion, you are only up 8, and it's still a 1 possession game. Also, even if the other team scores and misses the two point conversion, you still are up only 2, and can lose on a FG. That may have been the worst coaching decision I've seen all year, and in the year of the Dooley/Miles idiot slap fight to the death, that's saying something.
But he didn't stop there. Up 25-23 with about 3 minutes left, he's faced with a 4th down and 1 at midfield. Any moron with any sense at all punts if a FG beats you there. He's facing a Big Ten team whose strength is stopping the run, and he's playing a slender backup running back. His QB has been shredding the Illinois pass D all game. So what does he do? He goes for it. Even worse, he calls a line plunge with the previously mentioned scrub running back. Luckily for him, after his RB stumbled into the line and got blasted for no gain, some idiot line judge marked the ball a full yard ahead of where he was tackled and the leaky faucet replay official didn't have the gonads to overturn the call, so it worked out for him, bringing about a meathead fist pump when the measurement indicated a first down. They subsequently milked the clock down to 20 seconds, since Zook had to rightly use one of his timeouts to challenge the spot and won the game. He should have single handedly lost that game for his kids. Now he'll probably be called some sort of gutsy riverboat gambler. The kind of guy who hits on a 20. As if stupidity should be celebrated.
Speaking of stupidity, what in the hell is going on with this Cam Newton thing? The NCAA rule states that if it's detemines that a player or any family member or representative asked for money in order to commit somewhere, he's ineligible. The NCAA stated that they believe that Cecil Newton asked for money. Cam Newton is still playing. What am I missing here? Apparently, the NCAA concluded that Cam knew nothing of any silicitation of cash by his father. Even if anyone was so thoroughly naive enough to believe that, it doesn't make any difference. Even worse, in the wake of the announcement, was this statement by new NCAA President Mark Emmert (I'm paraphrasing here):
"We recognize that many people are outraged at the notion that a parent or anyone else could 'shop around' a student-athlete and there would possibly not be repercussions on the student-athlete's eligibility," Emmert said in a statement on the NCAA's website. Emmert added that he's committed to "further clarifying and strengthening our recruiting and amateurism rules so they promote appropriate behavior by students, parents, coaches and third parties." He also said the NCAA will "work aggressively with our members to amend our bylaws so that this type of behavior is not a part of intercollegiate athletics."
So guess what...parents, it's open season. Get your loot now, just make sure you don't tell your student athelete about it, or at least make it appear that the kid doesn't know anything. It's a good racket. Just make sure you do it now, because they are eventually going to "amend the bylaws" soon.6-7 last week. 73-86-6 is the record.
1. Auburn -4 1/2(betus) v South Carolina: I really hope that the ball coach wins this one, because I don't want Auburn to win. I'll just leave it at that rather than getting into a diatribe about the multitude of reasons for this. I think Auburn will win this mostly because of their offense...I just don't think that South Carolina can stop Newton from scoring TDs, especially late The first game at Auburn was close, but by the end of the game, SC couldn't do anything to stop Auburn's run. In this one, both teams struggle to sto the pass, and I don't think that there's any doubt that Spurrier will scheme some ways to get some big plays i the passing game, especially with Auburn so geared up to stop Marcus Lattimore. But at the end of the day, even if South Carolina is up late, I just don't see SC getting any stops against them. In the first game, SC had a great situationsl advatage,(coming off a game with Furman while Auburn played an emotional OT game against Clemson). Now the situation isn't as favorable and Auburn has the MNC carrott in front of them. I was close to leaning SC here, but in the end, I can't see Auburn losing this game, and 4 1/2 isn't enough to expect a cover on an outright loss. I'll be rooting for SC, though.
2. @Washington State +6 v Washington: A couple of sad sack teams here, but Wazzou has looked much better as the season has gone along, and completely dominated Oregon St in their last game. They have had 2 weeks off and Washington played a tough game last week against Cal. The Cougs can make their season by winning and thus keeping Washington out of a bowl. I think that motivation and their improved play will be enough in this one, plus, Washington, like Wazzou, can't stop anyone on defense, and the Cougs have been pretty competent lately on offense.
3. Florida State +4 v Virginia Tech: I just got it at 4 at Bodog. The world is expecting Virginia tech to roll in this one, but if you closely look at the matchups, outside of assuming a turnover avalanche to benefit VT, I think most of the edges are with FSU. The Noles have been solid in almost all phases, especially defensively. VT on the other hand, while solid against the pass, has had trouble stopping any competent running game, ranking 92nd in the country in ypc against. FSU has been able to run effectively in almost every game, and I can see the Noles gringing things out inthis one much like they did against Miami, who has a superior defense overall to VT. VT's strength has been the passing game, but they have struggled at times to keep Tyrod Taylor upright, and FSU is 2nd inthr country in sacks. To me, this looks like a very favorable matchup for FSU, and they are the ones getting the points.
4. Nebraska +4 1/2 v Oklahoma: I should probably have my head examined for making this play, because previous experience might tell you that there is no way in hell that the Big 12 is letting Nebraska and the psychopathic Pellini brothers out of Jerry's World with that trophy. I really want to see it though. Big 12 Commissioner Dan Beebe added his name this week to the list of gutless sympathy hounds by claiming that he and people in his office have gotten death threats from Nebraska fans due to the recent questionable referee calls in their games. I really hate when people do that, especially when the guy in question is supposed to be above the fray. Rather than go to the authorities, though, Beebe instead runs to the waiting arms of the college football media, who then heroically make the courageous decision to attack the unnamed lunatic finge of a fanbase. Boy, that takes guts. Not like "crazy internet fans" isn't an east target. http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/6270202/26127215. I don't know about anyone else, but this article made me want to puke. By the way, no authorities have been contacted by Dan Beebe about any death threats, so if he's really concerned about actual death threats, he's doing his family a disservice. http://www.omaha.com/article/20101202/BIGRED/712029770/-1#notes-dallas-police-say-no-investigation-of-beebe-threats. Fuck him. Anyway, back to the game. Nebraska's defense will be the best one that Oklahoma has faced, similar to Texas, who completely shut OU down for the majority of their game. Offensively, Taylor Martinez is questionable, both in his status for the game and his character, but I don't think it really matters who is playing QB for them. Rex Burkhead has been doing a great job in the Wildcat when they've used him there, and Cody Green is capable. Oklahoma will not be able to run the ball, and I think Nebraska will. This will be a very motivated Nebraska team who will be spitting nails in an us against the world type outlook. Even though I'm expecting bad calls against Nebraska, I can't truly believe that the Big 12 will go so far as to assure a loss for Nebraska. If it's an even playing field, I think nebraska wins this one.
5. UCONN +2 1/2 @South Florida: Uconn has a chance to go to a BCS game if they win. They might want to just go ahead and lose, because the uproar from the media at the prospect of them playing in a BCS game will end up bringing them more ridicule than anything else. Screw the media though. We all know the Big East sucks...give it a rest. UConn is coming off 4 straight wins after a shutout loss to Louisville that had everyone assuming Uconn was done. They relish the underdog role, while USF, who doesn't have a whole lot to play for, strugggles in the favorite's role. The only offensive facet of wither one of these teams that's worth a shit is UConn's running game. Jordan Todman figures out ways to grind out yards, and he'll probably do it here as well. Otherwise, the defenses have the big edge in every other facet. I'll take the points with UConn here as they try to make their first trip to the BCs under Edsall.
Others: Leaning toward SMU +9, in the CUSA title game at UCF. These two teams are pretty statistically similar and this game seems to feature an upset almost every year, much like the MAC title game, which held to form last night. Poor Huskies. Now they don't get to return to the Detroit ghetto in 3 weeks to play Florida International, and are stuck going somewhere like San Diego or Mobile. I can see why they are so distraught.....Nevada faces the ultimate letdown situation, having to travel all the way to Ruston, La to play La tech, who is normally a tough out at home. The spread also looks mysteriously low (8). Bad combination: Fishy line, terrible situation for the road favorite, live dog, 75%+ of the public on Nevada. Not sayin, I'm just sayin. I'll be on LT for the heck of it....Matt Barkley is back for USC, so they should be able to handle UCLA in a somewhat short line at the Rose Bowl(6). You all know what I think about UCLA, an it might be time to ponder the possibility that their defense might be as bad as their offense, a frightening proposition. If Kiffin loses this one, another plum job might come open Monday morning. Or maybe even early Sunday morning. Pat haden is like a Pavlovian dog waiting to fire that asshole. ....That's it....take care!!!
OK....here I am watching this stupid Illinois game at all hours of the night, and I am reminded once again of how mind numbingly stupid most football coaches are. The big surprise is that I am not even going to talk about the Zooker or Less Miles or Bill Stewart. There is a new kid on the black, who can out-meathead the rest of the meatheads. That meathead is Pat Hill, Fresno State head coach. Consider: You are up 19-17 in the 3rd quarter. You score a TD to make it 25-17. Great!! An extra point makes it 26-17, a 9 point lead and a 2 possession game! Whoo, it was a nailbiter there, but now you have some breathing room. except you don't have breathing room because this imbecile went for 2 so he could be up 10, since that it a more tidy score I suppose. Well, now when you don't get the conversion, you are only up 8, and it's still a 1 possession game. Also, even if the other team scores and misses the two point conversion, you still are up only 2, and can lose on a FG. That may have been the worst coaching decision I've seen all year, and in the year of the Dooley/Miles idiot slap fight to the death, that's saying something.
But he didn't stop there. Up 25-23 with about 3 minutes left, he's faced with a 4th down and 1 at midfield. Any moron with any sense at all punts if a FG beats you there. He's facing a Big Ten team whose strength is stopping the run, and he's playing a slender backup running back. His QB has been shredding the Illinois pass D all game. So what does he do? He goes for it. Even worse, he calls a line plunge with the previously mentioned scrub running back. Luckily for him, after his RB stumbled into the line and got blasted for no gain, some idiot line judge marked the ball a full yard ahead of where he was tackled and the leaky faucet replay official didn't have the gonads to overturn the call, so it worked out for him, bringing about a meathead fist pump when the measurement indicated a first down. They subsequently milked the clock down to 20 seconds, since Zook had to rightly use one of his timeouts to challenge the spot and won the game. He should have single handedly lost that game for his kids. Now he'll probably be called some sort of gutsy riverboat gambler. The kind of guy who hits on a 20. As if stupidity should be celebrated.
Speaking of stupidity, what in the hell is going on with this Cam Newton thing? The NCAA rule states that if it's detemines that a player or any family member or representative asked for money in order to commit somewhere, he's ineligible. The NCAA stated that they believe that Cecil Newton asked for money. Cam Newton is still playing. What am I missing here? Apparently, the NCAA concluded that Cam knew nothing of any silicitation of cash by his father. Even if anyone was so thoroughly naive enough to believe that, it doesn't make any difference. Even worse, in the wake of the announcement, was this statement by new NCAA President Mark Emmert (I'm paraphrasing here):
"We recognize that many people are outraged at the notion that a parent or anyone else could 'shop around' a student-athlete and there would possibly not be repercussions on the student-athlete's eligibility," Emmert said in a statement on the NCAA's website. Emmert added that he's committed to "further clarifying and strengthening our recruiting and amateurism rules so they promote appropriate behavior by students, parents, coaches and third parties." He also said the NCAA will "work aggressively with our members to amend our bylaws so that this type of behavior is not a part of intercollegiate athletics."
So guess what...parents, it's open season. Get your loot now, just make sure you don't tell your student athelete about it, or at least make it appear that the kid doesn't know anything. It's a good racket. Just make sure you do it now, because they are eventually going to "amend the bylaws" soon.6-7 last week. 73-86-6 is the record.
1. Auburn -4 1/2(betus) v South Carolina: I really hope that the ball coach wins this one, because I don't want Auburn to win. I'll just leave it at that rather than getting into a diatribe about the multitude of reasons for this. I think Auburn will win this mostly because of their offense...I just don't think that South Carolina can stop Newton from scoring TDs, especially late The first game at Auburn was close, but by the end of the game, SC couldn't do anything to stop Auburn's run. In this one, both teams struggle to sto the pass, and I don't think that there's any doubt that Spurrier will scheme some ways to get some big plays i the passing game, especially with Auburn so geared up to stop Marcus Lattimore. But at the end of the day, even if South Carolina is up late, I just don't see SC getting any stops against them. In the first game, SC had a great situationsl advatage,(coming off a game with Furman while Auburn played an emotional OT game against Clemson). Now the situation isn't as favorable and Auburn has the MNC carrott in front of them. I was close to leaning SC here, but in the end, I can't see Auburn losing this game, and 4 1/2 isn't enough to expect a cover on an outright loss. I'll be rooting for SC, though.
2. @Washington State +6 v Washington: A couple of sad sack teams here, but Wazzou has looked much better as the season has gone along, and completely dominated Oregon St in their last game. They have had 2 weeks off and Washington played a tough game last week against Cal. The Cougs can make their season by winning and thus keeping Washington out of a bowl. I think that motivation and their improved play will be enough in this one, plus, Washington, like Wazzou, can't stop anyone on defense, and the Cougs have been pretty competent lately on offense.
3. Florida State +4 v Virginia Tech: I just got it at 4 at Bodog. The world is expecting Virginia tech to roll in this one, but if you closely look at the matchups, outside of assuming a turnover avalanche to benefit VT, I think most of the edges are with FSU. The Noles have been solid in almost all phases, especially defensively. VT on the other hand, while solid against the pass, has had trouble stopping any competent running game, ranking 92nd in the country in ypc against. FSU has been able to run effectively in almost every game, and I can see the Noles gringing things out inthis one much like they did against Miami, who has a superior defense overall to VT. VT's strength has been the passing game, but they have struggled at times to keep Tyrod Taylor upright, and FSU is 2nd inthr country in sacks. To me, this looks like a very favorable matchup for FSU, and they are the ones getting the points.
4. Nebraska +4 1/2 v Oklahoma: I should probably have my head examined for making this play, because previous experience might tell you that there is no way in hell that the Big 12 is letting Nebraska and the psychopathic Pellini brothers out of Jerry's World with that trophy. I really want to see it though. Big 12 Commissioner Dan Beebe added his name this week to the list of gutless sympathy hounds by claiming that he and people in his office have gotten death threats from Nebraska fans due to the recent questionable referee calls in their games. I really hate when people do that, especially when the guy in question is supposed to be above the fray. Rather than go to the authorities, though, Beebe instead runs to the waiting arms of the college football media, who then heroically make the courageous decision to attack the unnamed lunatic finge of a fanbase. Boy, that takes guts. Not like "crazy internet fans" isn't an east target. http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/6270202/26127215. I don't know about anyone else, but this article made me want to puke. By the way, no authorities have been contacted by Dan Beebe about any death threats, so if he's really concerned about actual death threats, he's doing his family a disservice. http://www.omaha.com/article/20101202/BIGRED/712029770/-1#notes-dallas-police-say-no-investigation-of-beebe-threats. Fuck him. Anyway, back to the game. Nebraska's defense will be the best one that Oklahoma has faced, similar to Texas, who completely shut OU down for the majority of their game. Offensively, Taylor Martinez is questionable, both in his status for the game and his character, but I don't think it really matters who is playing QB for them. Rex Burkhead has been doing a great job in the Wildcat when they've used him there, and Cody Green is capable. Oklahoma will not be able to run the ball, and I think Nebraska will. This will be a very motivated Nebraska team who will be spitting nails in an us against the world type outlook. Even though I'm expecting bad calls against Nebraska, I can't truly believe that the Big 12 will go so far as to assure a loss for Nebraska. If it's an even playing field, I think nebraska wins this one.
5. UCONN +2 1/2 @South Florida: Uconn has a chance to go to a BCS game if they win. They might want to just go ahead and lose, because the uproar from the media at the prospect of them playing in a BCS game will end up bringing them more ridicule than anything else. Screw the media though. We all know the Big East sucks...give it a rest. UConn is coming off 4 straight wins after a shutout loss to Louisville that had everyone assuming Uconn was done. They relish the underdog role, while USF, who doesn't have a whole lot to play for, strugggles in the favorite's role. The only offensive facet of wither one of these teams that's worth a shit is UConn's running game. Jordan Todman figures out ways to grind out yards, and he'll probably do it here as well. Otherwise, the defenses have the big edge in every other facet. I'll take the points with UConn here as they try to make their first trip to the BCs under Edsall.
Others: Leaning toward SMU +9, in the CUSA title game at UCF. These two teams are pretty statistically similar and this game seems to feature an upset almost every year, much like the MAC title game, which held to form last night. Poor Huskies. Now they don't get to return to the Detroit ghetto in 3 weeks to play Florida International, and are stuck going somewhere like San Diego or Mobile. I can see why they are so distraught.....Nevada faces the ultimate letdown situation, having to travel all the way to Ruston, La to play La tech, who is normally a tough out at home. The spread also looks mysteriously low (8). Bad combination: Fishy line, terrible situation for the road favorite, live dog, 75%+ of the public on Nevada. Not sayin, I'm just sayin. I'll be on LT for the heck of it....Matt Barkley is back for USC, so they should be able to handle UCLA in a somewhat short line at the Rose Bowl(6). You all know what I think about UCLA, an it might be time to ponder the possibility that their defense might be as bad as their offense, a frightening proposition. If Kiffin loses this one, another plum job might come open Monday morning. Or maybe even early Sunday morning. Pat haden is like a Pavlovian dog waiting to fire that asshole. ....That's it....take care!!!
Saturday, December 4, 2010
Week 14 Musings (Weekday)
***Note: Forgot to post this when written up late Wednesday.
Thurs:
1. Arizona St +6 @ Arizona: I've been saying this for weeks, but ASU has been much better than their record indicates. They are really a well rounded squad. They play well defnsively and have some speed and playmakers, and they are balanced offensively, with a tiough runner in Cameron Marshall and a competent passing game. Arizona has had a decent year, but if you look closely at their results, after the Iowa win, which they were lucky to get, they haven't done much. Lost at home to Oegon St, beat cal by a point, lost at home to USC. Not much of a home field advantage. On a nuetral, I would actually give the edge to ASU, so I'll take the points here in an environment that has not proven to be all that difficult for visiting teams.
2. Miami(OH) +17 v Northern Illinois: This game has been a house of horrors for the favorite. A couple years ago, an undefeated Ball State team lost outright to Buffalo, and in previous years several strong MAC teams have been upset in this spot, NIU included in 2005 I believe. Miami is not a bad squad, and they have been much better offensively lately. NIU might have a penchant for locking up in this game..they've been almost too good lately and are due for the proverbial clunker.
More later.
Thurs:
1. Arizona St +6 @ Arizona: I've been saying this for weeks, but ASU has been much better than their record indicates. They are really a well rounded squad. They play well defnsively and have some speed and playmakers, and they are balanced offensively, with a tiough runner in Cameron Marshall and a competent passing game. Arizona has had a decent year, but if you look closely at their results, after the Iowa win, which they were lucky to get, they haven't done much. Lost at home to Oegon St, beat cal by a point, lost at home to USC. Not much of a home field advantage. On a nuetral, I would actually give the edge to ASU, so I'll take the points here in an environment that has not proven to be all that difficult for visiting teams.
2. Miami(OH) +17 v Northern Illinois: This game has been a house of horrors for the favorite. A couple years ago, an undefeated Ball State team lost outright to Buffalo, and in previous years several strong MAC teams have been upset in this spot, NIU included in 2005 I believe. Miami is not a bad squad, and they have been much better offensively lately. NIU might have a penchant for locking up in this game..they've been almost too good lately and are due for the proverbial clunker.
More later.
Saturday, November 27, 2010
Week 13 continued (Saturday)
I went to bed and it was 24-7 Boise. I wake up, and the dream ends. Hard to believe. The South exhales.
Something has to be said about football uniforms. It's a MFing epidemic. In the NFL, you can't find a game where the two teams are wearing their normal uniforms. The Bears have worn those stupid throwbacks twice(with names on the back and helmets from today). If you can't replicate the uniforms from decades ago(leather helmets, high top cleats, tiny shoulder pads) then just forget it. Is there some sort of clamoring for throwback uni's. (And while I'm at it, the only throwback uni I actually want to see is the Fouts era Air Coryell unis with the royal blue and yellow pants, but there has been a steadfast refusal to wear them, or people just forget about some of the coolest uniforms any team has ever worn. Have the Chargers disowned that those teams or something? If it isn't the throwbacks, it's the alternates, like the Bears or Dolphins orange, or various blacks. Terrible. Don't even get me started on college. We get treated to these abominations known as the Nike pro combat uniforms in what seems to be every week. The newest additions were shown in the Backyard brawl yesterday, with WV wearing rusty garbage cans on their heads. Earlier this year, we were treated to the "exploding brain/shotgun blast to the head" Air Force helmets. Add that to the myriad of programs pandering to the military with these camo tinged uniforms with things like 'Pride" "Committment" and "Honor" substituted for the names on the back. This from programs whose players were probably hurling their girlfriends through plate glass windows or breaking someone's skull at a bar fight the night before. I've really had enough. Here's the exploding brain helmets by the way.
5-3 to start after the Boise debacle, though I'm sure some didn't get Oregon at 18 where I did. That one should have an asterisk, I guess, or we can call it 5-3-1. Whatever. I must also note that in 2 cases, teams that the musings were on made significant comebacks...Auburn and Arizona St(down 17-0 as a 12 point favorite). Can't bitch about that, can I?
9. @Purdue -3 v Indiana: I have some reservations on this one because Purdue has looked so bad at times on offense this year, but how can you pass up a chance to fade Indiana on the road laying only a FG? Answer: You cant. Indiana has been somewhat worthy of your money when they play at home, but as we all know, it's been a different story on the road, as it has been every year under Lynch. Even when they play well and are supposed to cover they don't. As long as Purdue has Rob Henry back there playing QB, they are mildly dangerous, and good enough to compete in the BIg Ten, as their game with a disinterested Michigan State showed last week Defensively, they are actually pretty decent, ranked in the top half of the country in YPP. Indiana can't stop a soul on defense. On a neutral, this would probably go down to the wire, but not at Purdue.
10. Michigan State -1 1/2 @Penn State: Frankly, when I saw that Penn State was being dogged at home here, to a team that hasn't ever really been close to beating them in Happy Valley, I was ready to pull the trigger on the Nits. After looking at this one closely, though, I have to go with Michigan State. Earlier this year, Penn State's major problem was it's offense under the freshman Bolden, but it masked the fact that their defense has niot been very good all year. They are ranked 70th in total defense(ypp), 83rd against the run and 72nd in pass efficiency defense. Michigan State is a pretty good offensive team, and they are going to be ready to play coming off the clunker performance against Purdue and fighting for a share of the conference crown. If the Nits can get MSU into 3rd down spots, they might have a shot because they are strangely good defensively on 3rd down(6th) and MSU is strangely bad offensively on 3rd down(83rd), but overall, MSU has been much better than Penn State on both sides of the ball. teams like Minnesota and Indiana have hung with PSU effectively this year, albeit away from happy valley. I also think that a 12 noon kickoff reduces the home field edge a bit.
11. @Utah -8 1/2 v BYU: Despite Utah's tough stretch lately, I still think they are a solid squad. Historically, they seem to get the better of the Holy War matchups..when they are better, they blow out BYU, when BYU is better, they give them a good game. This year, as well know, BYU has not been itself. They've come back lately to get themselves bowl eligible, but when you have a 4 game stretch against a bunch of collective circle jerks (Wyoming, Colorado St, UNLV and New Mexico) and 3 of them are at home, it's no wonder you strung together a couple wins. Now they go back on the road against real competition, and that has not been a pretty picture for BYU, having lost to Utah State soundly among non-competitive games with AF, Florida St and TCU. They can't throw the ball at all, and Utah can stop the run. I think it will be more of the same for BYU.
12. @Cal -7 v Washington: I can't believe how favorite heavy I am this week...almost every game is a square bet, too, but this seems to be the case on Thanksgiving weekend. Home Cal laying only 7 to a shitty team like Washington? Wow. I realize that Brock Mansion is about the worst QB to suit up for a BCS team in decades, but even he can lead a drive or 3 against this terrible Washington defense, especially when he has Shane Vereen to hand the ball off to. Defensively, cal will put the clamps on the wildly overrated Jake Locker, and bounce back from that terrible performance they had against Stanford last week.
13 @Oklahoma St -2 1/2 v Oklahoma: At least that's the spread on Bet US. Oklahoma has lost 2 games previously to Missouri and Texas A&M on the road, and I would submit that this will be their toughest test of the 3. Oklahoma, contrary to popular belief is not that good on either side of the ball statistically. They are 61st in total offense, 102nd in rushing pards per carry. They are 68th against the run defensively. Oklahoma St, on the other hand is better than Oklahoma on both sides of the ball. They are explosive as well, able to score from anywhere. They had a tough go defensively when Nebraska came in there, but other than that, they have been pretty good defeensively by their standards. Oklahoma will have to play extremely well to win this game. they've owned the pokes recently, but I don't think they match up well this year.
Others. I like BC getting 3 at Syracuse. neither team will be able to do much offensively, but BC is a borderline elite defense, and has the better playmakers on offense. I'll take the 3 there. Syracuse has trouble winning tough games in which they are favored......I lean to Ohio St laying 16.5 at home to michigan. OSU should be able to name the score offensively because as with every offense, they are a terrible matchup for michigan's defense, but Tressel has a penchant for conservative play that does not translate to covering big spreads, especially when Michigan is capable of scoring like they are. That was very close to a musing.....Also like Cincinnati to beat UCONN at UCONN. The Huskies have had all kinds of trouble stopping spread attacks over the years, and Cincy looks like they are back to competence with the return of Zack Collaros. Cincy also stops the run(ranked 7th) so UCONN will have a hard time doing what they do. You can pass on the Bearcats, but UCONN sucks at that.....I think the Cats are in for a long day in Madison, but 24 is a bit much to lay for a musing. Since Bielema is such as asshole, and an admittedly dumb one at that since he readily admits he is too mind-numbingly stupid to deviate at all from the 2 point conversion "card",the chance for a 35 point win in there. This is especially true with Evan Watkins barking the signals instead of Dan Persa. That's it. Sorry for the lateness....
Something has to be said about football uniforms. It's a MFing epidemic. In the NFL, you can't find a game where the two teams are wearing their normal uniforms. The Bears have worn those stupid throwbacks twice(with names on the back and helmets from today). If you can't replicate the uniforms from decades ago(leather helmets, high top cleats, tiny shoulder pads) then just forget it. Is there some sort of clamoring for throwback uni's. (And while I'm at it, the only throwback uni I actually want to see is the Fouts era Air Coryell unis with the royal blue and yellow pants, but there has been a steadfast refusal to wear them, or people just forget about some of the coolest uniforms any team has ever worn. Have the Chargers disowned that those teams or something? If it isn't the throwbacks, it's the alternates, like the Bears or Dolphins orange, or various blacks. Terrible. Don't even get me started on college. We get treated to these abominations known as the Nike pro combat uniforms in what seems to be every week. The newest additions were shown in the Backyard brawl yesterday, with WV wearing rusty garbage cans on their heads. Earlier this year, we were treated to the "exploding brain/shotgun blast to the head" Air Force helmets. Add that to the myriad of programs pandering to the military with these camo tinged uniforms with things like 'Pride" "Committment" and "Honor" substituted for the names on the back. This from programs whose players were probably hurling their girlfriends through plate glass windows or breaking someone's skull at a bar fight the night before. I've really had enough. Here's the exploding brain helmets by the way.
5-3 to start after the Boise debacle, though I'm sure some didn't get Oregon at 18 where I did. That one should have an asterisk, I guess, or we can call it 5-3-1. Whatever. I must also note that in 2 cases, teams that the musings were on made significant comebacks...Auburn and Arizona St(down 17-0 as a 12 point favorite). Can't bitch about that, can I?
9. @Purdue -3 v Indiana: I have some reservations on this one because Purdue has looked so bad at times on offense this year, but how can you pass up a chance to fade Indiana on the road laying only a FG? Answer: You cant. Indiana has been somewhat worthy of your money when they play at home, but as we all know, it's been a different story on the road, as it has been every year under Lynch. Even when they play well and are supposed to cover they don't. As long as Purdue has Rob Henry back there playing QB, they are mildly dangerous, and good enough to compete in the BIg Ten, as their game with a disinterested Michigan State showed last week Defensively, they are actually pretty decent, ranked in the top half of the country in YPP. Indiana can't stop a soul on defense. On a neutral, this would probably go down to the wire, but not at Purdue.
10. Michigan State -1 1/2 @Penn State: Frankly, when I saw that Penn State was being dogged at home here, to a team that hasn't ever really been close to beating them in Happy Valley, I was ready to pull the trigger on the Nits. After looking at this one closely, though, I have to go with Michigan State. Earlier this year, Penn State's major problem was it's offense under the freshman Bolden, but it masked the fact that their defense has niot been very good all year. They are ranked 70th in total defense(ypp), 83rd against the run and 72nd in pass efficiency defense. Michigan State is a pretty good offensive team, and they are going to be ready to play coming off the clunker performance against Purdue and fighting for a share of the conference crown. If the Nits can get MSU into 3rd down spots, they might have a shot because they are strangely good defensively on 3rd down(6th) and MSU is strangely bad offensively on 3rd down(83rd), but overall, MSU has been much better than Penn State on both sides of the ball. teams like Minnesota and Indiana have hung with PSU effectively this year, albeit away from happy valley. I also think that a 12 noon kickoff reduces the home field edge a bit.
11. @Utah -8 1/2 v BYU: Despite Utah's tough stretch lately, I still think they are a solid squad. Historically, they seem to get the better of the Holy War matchups..when they are better, they blow out BYU, when BYU is better, they give them a good game. This year, as well know, BYU has not been itself. They've come back lately to get themselves bowl eligible, but when you have a 4 game stretch against a bunch of collective circle jerks (Wyoming, Colorado St, UNLV and New Mexico) and 3 of them are at home, it's no wonder you strung together a couple wins. Now they go back on the road against real competition, and that has not been a pretty picture for BYU, having lost to Utah State soundly among non-competitive games with AF, Florida St and TCU. They can't throw the ball at all, and Utah can stop the run. I think it will be more of the same for BYU.
12. @Cal -7 v Washington: I can't believe how favorite heavy I am this week...almost every game is a square bet, too, but this seems to be the case on Thanksgiving weekend. Home Cal laying only 7 to a shitty team like Washington? Wow. I realize that Brock Mansion is about the worst QB to suit up for a BCS team in decades, but even he can lead a drive or 3 against this terrible Washington defense, especially when he has Shane Vereen to hand the ball off to. Defensively, cal will put the clamps on the wildly overrated Jake Locker, and bounce back from that terrible performance they had against Stanford last week.
13 @Oklahoma St -2 1/2 v Oklahoma: At least that's the spread on Bet US. Oklahoma has lost 2 games previously to Missouri and Texas A&M on the road, and I would submit that this will be their toughest test of the 3. Oklahoma, contrary to popular belief is not that good on either side of the ball statistically. They are 61st in total offense, 102nd in rushing pards per carry. They are 68th against the run defensively. Oklahoma St, on the other hand is better than Oklahoma on both sides of the ball. They are explosive as well, able to score from anywhere. They had a tough go defensively when Nebraska came in there, but other than that, they have been pretty good defeensively by their standards. Oklahoma will have to play extremely well to win this game. they've owned the pokes recently, but I don't think they match up well this year.
Others. I like BC getting 3 at Syracuse. neither team will be able to do much offensively, but BC is a borderline elite defense, and has the better playmakers on offense. I'll take the 3 there. Syracuse has trouble winning tough games in which they are favored......I lean to Ohio St laying 16.5 at home to michigan. OSU should be able to name the score offensively because as with every offense, they are a terrible matchup for michigan's defense, but Tressel has a penchant for conservative play that does not translate to covering big spreads, especially when Michigan is capable of scoring like they are. That was very close to a musing.....Also like Cincinnati to beat UCONN at UCONN. The Huskies have had all kinds of trouble stopping spread attacks over the years, and Cincy looks like they are back to competence with the return of Zack Collaros. Cincy also stops the run(ranked 7th) so UCONN will have a hard time doing what they do. You can pass on the Bearcats, but UCONN sucks at that.....I think the Cats are in for a long day in Madison, but 24 is a bit much to lay for a musing. Since Bielema is such as asshole, and an admittedly dumb one at that since he readily admits he is too mind-numbingly stupid to deviate at all from the 2 point conversion "card",the chance for a 35 point win in there. This is especially true with Evan Watkins barking the signals instead of Dan Persa. That's it. Sorry for the lateness....
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Week 13 Musings (Friday)
7-4-1 last week gets the overall record to 67-79-6. So if I go 12-0 this week, (though I'll probably have more than that) which I of course expect, we can get back to even minus the juice, which would mean someone following these picks would only be down 15 units. That's if I go 12-0. Sounds great! Happy Thanksgiving by the way!!
This weekend looks like a fantastic weekend for games. The fact that the Big Ten has extended their season an additional week makes this probably the best overall card of the year. Michigan/Ohio St, previously the biggest game on any day it's played, is a total afterthought this week other than the drama surrounding whether DickRod will be able to keep his job. In my opinion, if Michigan can just get a competent defensive mind to corredinate for them, they aren't that far from being back in the mix for the Big Ten, so I can see the point of view for supporters of DR, because you cannot argue with the explosiveness of that offense. However, at the end of the day, there's a guy out there in Palo Alto who coaches a program in a way that makes old school Wolverines drool. Harbaugh is such a dead center perfect fit for Michigan that if he showed even a modicum of interest, I would lop off DR's head in a public ceremony if it helped my chances at getting Harbaugh. Anyway, in addition to that game, you have the Iron Bowl, LSU/Arkansas, all of the top teams playing, including Boise in a tough game with Nevada. It's just a great week. It's been extremely difficult to get a handle on all the games, so I'll probably leave a couple out that I'll look back on and wish I included.
Friday:
1. Ohio -3 1/2 @Kent St: I'm probably 0 for the year on the MAC, and a couple of the losses, if I remember correctly, were as a sresult of backing this sad sack Kent St team. The reason I had liked them this year was because their defense was playing extremely well. For a portion of the year, they were #1 in rush defense(per carry) and #2 in total defense(ypp). This was after playing some pretty decent teams, including Penn St. Even now, they're still ranked 4th in ypc against, but that really doesn't matter. They simply find ways to fuck everything up. Even though nobody can run on them, they still have managed to give up 21 rushing TDs. Offensively, they are terrible. they've had chances to do something notable several times this year and have failed each time. Now Ohio, the polar o[pposite of them, comes in. Ohio is not much statistically, but all they so is win under Solich. They just beat a good temple team(who admittedly is falling apart a bit) and come in on an 8 game conference winning streak. Kent's coach just resigned, and they've completely had the wheels come off, as even their defense has failed them. They've given up 45 to Army and 38 to Western Michigan in the last 2 weeks. I just can't see them hanging with a team that knows how to win.
2. Louisville -3 @Rutgers: it's tough to back a team as a road favorite when they've lost two in a row at home, but in this case, I think Louisville brings a solid effort. They have a shot at a bowl, since they are 5-6...Rutgers has been eliminated from bowl contention after their humiliation at Cincinnati last week. Nice call by the musings there. Thanksfully I didn't say something nice about the Rutgers defense in that blurb because they gave up 69 points and 600+ yards. Here's the basis of the play: Rutgers is ranked 107th in total offense, 117th in rushing offense. Louisville is 29th in total defense and 48th against the run. Rutgers is last in the country in sacks allowed, Louisville is 24th in sacks. Louisville also has the edge in offensive linev defensive line and can run the ball well with Bilal Powell. It just looks to me like the more motivated and overall better Louisville team should be able to take care of business here.
3. @Pitt -3 v West Virginia: If you put this game on a neutral field, I think I would make Pitt a 3-4 point favorite, so it makes sense that I would not have a problem backing them as only a 3 point favorite at home. Although WV is extremely good on defense, they are going to have a devil of a time scoring on Pitt on the road. Geno Smith is having all kinds of problems throwing the ball, and it's become evident that Noel Devine has been hurt pretty much all year. As a result, the explosiveness has completely vanished from the WV offensive attack. Even though WV will put up a good fight when they are on defense, as long at Pitt avoids turnovers, they have enough offensive talent to put up enough points to cover the short number. Oh, and this is one of the few times Wanny will have a distinct coaching edge.
4. @Akron -1 v Buffalo: Just for shits and giggles, I'll throw this one out there, because I think Akron will get their first win of the season here. They are currently 0-11, but have looked ok the last two weeks, losing in OT on the road to Ball State and falling in the last 5 minutes by 5 against a bowl team in Miami(OH). On the other hand, Buffalo, who is ranked 117th in total offense, has lost in consecutive weeks at home to two of the worst team in Division 1, Eastern Michigan and Ball St. Ball St actually dominated the Bulls, winning 20-3, and held them to a total of 144 yards of offense!. Akron is actually ranked in the top half in total defense, so they should have similar success in being able to control the various line plunges and crossbucks that this 6th grade level offense dreams up.
5. Auburn +4 1/2 @Alabama: When I contemplated this game during the course of the season, I thought that would would almost certainly be on Alabama, and I figured that this is where the spread would be, within about a 1/2 point. After looking at this game closely and comtemplating what I've seen from this Alabama team, I'm going the other way. When facing a good offense this year, Bama has struggled..there's no doubt about that. At home, they are a different animal, but I can't get the visions of Jordan Jefferson and Stephen Garcia having extremely good games against this defense out of my brain. Yes, Jordan Jefferson had very good success against this defense, and Stephen garcia was just about perfect. You would have to think that Cam Newton will be able to have some pretty good success in this game, regardless of where it's being played. Also, Bama cannot pressure the Qb. They are 89th in the country in sacks. If you are going to have success against a high powered offense, you have to impose your will be applying pressure. They haven't been able to do it against worst offenses than this. Also, as we all know, this Auburn offense is the top rushing offense in the country. bama has been hurt on the ground this year by lesser running attacks. Everyone talks about Auburn's defnse being lacking, but they are ranked 38th in yards per play...not bad. They struggle against the pass, but McElroy has been struggling in recent weeks, and Bama has not defined an identity for themselves offensively. Even if they decide to run, which is probably their best bet, Auburn is 22nd against the run, and Bama hasn't had a 100 yard rusher since they ran over Tennessee in October. I just think that geting 4 1/2 is the way to go in a game that I lean slightly to Auburn outright.
6. @Arizona St -12 v UCLA: As has been made clear recently, I like Arizona State's team this year. they've run into a lot of bad breaks and lost some close games. They'll have to win this one and beat Arizona on the road to make a bowl game, and that's too bad because they are better than probably 25 teams that will go bowling this year. Anyway, they have the same record as UCLA, but UCLA is 4-6 for good reason. They just suck ass. 111th in total offense, 120th in pass offense, 103rd in rush defense, 107th in 3rd down conversions against. If they had played a real Texas team and if Case Kennum and his backup haddn't gotten hurt, they'd be 2-8 and a laughingstiock nationally. ASU is competent in all the phases opposite the ones I listed for UCLA. They're 39th in total offense, 29th in total defense...they are a solid squad. This one should be over by halftime unless something screwy happens, or these teams play nothing like they've played all year. I dare say that this is one of my favorite games of the year.
7. @Oregon -18 v Arizona: This game is all over the board as far as a spread, but I just got it at 18 on Bet US. Oregon is coming off a terrible performance at Cal. It's ok, they're allowed one bad one. I seriously doubt it will happen again, and I don't think this Arizona defense will be much more than a wet nap in resistence. Arizona is looked at as a solid squad, but some careful observation will show that they really haven't been one. They beat iowa at home early, but so has 3 other teams, including Northwestern, and they needed several fluky plays to do it. The lost at home to Oregon St when the Beavers were lost. They should have lost to road Cal in Tucson. They gave up 400 yards of offense to UCLA. Stanford put up 500 yards on them, and they were noncompetitive in that one. They lost at home to USC. So ehat does that leave, as far as positives? Not much. Oregon is due to explode again, and I think they will. If Arizona plans on scoring 27 or so, maybe they'll cover...then again, maybe they won't because I think Oregon is going to want to make a statement. generally, I don't like laying points like this, but it's prudent here. I've been saying that I thought Oregon would drop one somewhere, but it won't be this week. I guess the Civil War then.
8. Boise -13 1/2 @Nevada: Boise is going to blow them out. Nevada won't hang with them. Nice team, but it's all Boise, all the time. Blood, Guts, Gore, Victory. By 28. Boom goes the dynamite.
This weekend looks like a fantastic weekend for games. The fact that the Big Ten has extended their season an additional week makes this probably the best overall card of the year. Michigan/Ohio St, previously the biggest game on any day it's played, is a total afterthought this week other than the drama surrounding whether DickRod will be able to keep his job. In my opinion, if Michigan can just get a competent defensive mind to corredinate for them, they aren't that far from being back in the mix for the Big Ten, so I can see the point of view for supporters of DR, because you cannot argue with the explosiveness of that offense. However, at the end of the day, there's a guy out there in Palo Alto who coaches a program in a way that makes old school Wolverines drool. Harbaugh is such a dead center perfect fit for Michigan that if he showed even a modicum of interest, I would lop off DR's head in a public ceremony if it helped my chances at getting Harbaugh. Anyway, in addition to that game, you have the Iron Bowl, LSU/Arkansas, all of the top teams playing, including Boise in a tough game with Nevada. It's just a great week. It's been extremely difficult to get a handle on all the games, so I'll probably leave a couple out that I'll look back on and wish I included.
Friday:
1. Ohio -3 1/2 @Kent St: I'm probably 0 for the year on the MAC, and a couple of the losses, if I remember correctly, were as a sresult of backing this sad sack Kent St team. The reason I had liked them this year was because their defense was playing extremely well. For a portion of the year, they were #1 in rush defense(per carry) and #2 in total defense(ypp). This was after playing some pretty decent teams, including Penn St. Even now, they're still ranked 4th in ypc against, but that really doesn't matter. They simply find ways to fuck everything up. Even though nobody can run on them, they still have managed to give up 21 rushing TDs. Offensively, they are terrible. they've had chances to do something notable several times this year and have failed each time. Now Ohio, the polar o[pposite of them, comes in. Ohio is not much statistically, but all they so is win under Solich. They just beat a good temple team(who admittedly is falling apart a bit) and come in on an 8 game conference winning streak. Kent's coach just resigned, and they've completely had the wheels come off, as even their defense has failed them. They've given up 45 to Army and 38 to Western Michigan in the last 2 weeks. I just can't see them hanging with a team that knows how to win.
2. Louisville -3 @Rutgers: it's tough to back a team as a road favorite when they've lost two in a row at home, but in this case, I think Louisville brings a solid effort. They have a shot at a bowl, since they are 5-6...Rutgers has been eliminated from bowl contention after their humiliation at Cincinnati last week. Nice call by the musings there. Thanksfully I didn't say something nice about the Rutgers defense in that blurb because they gave up 69 points and 600+ yards. Here's the basis of the play: Rutgers is ranked 107th in total offense, 117th in rushing offense. Louisville is 29th in total defense and 48th against the run. Rutgers is last in the country in sacks allowed, Louisville is 24th in sacks. Louisville also has the edge in offensive linev defensive line and can run the ball well with Bilal Powell. It just looks to me like the more motivated and overall better Louisville team should be able to take care of business here.
3. @Pitt -3 v West Virginia: If you put this game on a neutral field, I think I would make Pitt a 3-4 point favorite, so it makes sense that I would not have a problem backing them as only a 3 point favorite at home. Although WV is extremely good on defense, they are going to have a devil of a time scoring on Pitt on the road. Geno Smith is having all kinds of problems throwing the ball, and it's become evident that Noel Devine has been hurt pretty much all year. As a result, the explosiveness has completely vanished from the WV offensive attack. Even though WV will put up a good fight when they are on defense, as long at Pitt avoids turnovers, they have enough offensive talent to put up enough points to cover the short number. Oh, and this is one of the few times Wanny will have a distinct coaching edge.
4. @Akron -1 v Buffalo: Just for shits and giggles, I'll throw this one out there, because I think Akron will get their first win of the season here. They are currently 0-11, but have looked ok the last two weeks, losing in OT on the road to Ball State and falling in the last 5 minutes by 5 against a bowl team in Miami(OH). On the other hand, Buffalo, who is ranked 117th in total offense, has lost in consecutive weeks at home to two of the worst team in Division 1, Eastern Michigan and Ball St. Ball St actually dominated the Bulls, winning 20-3, and held them to a total of 144 yards of offense!. Akron is actually ranked in the top half in total defense, so they should have similar success in being able to control the various line plunges and crossbucks that this 6th grade level offense dreams up.
5. Auburn +4 1/2 @Alabama: When I contemplated this game during the course of the season, I thought that would would almost certainly be on Alabama, and I figured that this is where the spread would be, within about a 1/2 point. After looking at this game closely and comtemplating what I've seen from this Alabama team, I'm going the other way. When facing a good offense this year, Bama has struggled..there's no doubt about that. At home, they are a different animal, but I can't get the visions of Jordan Jefferson and Stephen Garcia having extremely good games against this defense out of my brain. Yes, Jordan Jefferson had very good success against this defense, and Stephen garcia was just about perfect. You would have to think that Cam Newton will be able to have some pretty good success in this game, regardless of where it's being played. Also, Bama cannot pressure the Qb. They are 89th in the country in sacks. If you are going to have success against a high powered offense, you have to impose your will be applying pressure. They haven't been able to do it against worst offenses than this. Also, as we all know, this Auburn offense is the top rushing offense in the country. bama has been hurt on the ground this year by lesser running attacks. Everyone talks about Auburn's defnse being lacking, but they are ranked 38th in yards per play...not bad. They struggle against the pass, but McElroy has been struggling in recent weeks, and Bama has not defined an identity for themselves offensively. Even if they decide to run, which is probably their best bet, Auburn is 22nd against the run, and Bama hasn't had a 100 yard rusher since they ran over Tennessee in October. I just think that geting 4 1/2 is the way to go in a game that I lean slightly to Auburn outright.
6. @Arizona St -12 v UCLA: As has been made clear recently, I like Arizona State's team this year. they've run into a lot of bad breaks and lost some close games. They'll have to win this one and beat Arizona on the road to make a bowl game, and that's too bad because they are better than probably 25 teams that will go bowling this year. Anyway, they have the same record as UCLA, but UCLA is 4-6 for good reason. They just suck ass. 111th in total offense, 120th in pass offense, 103rd in rush defense, 107th in 3rd down conversions against. If they had played a real Texas team and if Case Kennum and his backup haddn't gotten hurt, they'd be 2-8 and a laughingstiock nationally. ASU is competent in all the phases opposite the ones I listed for UCLA. They're 39th in total offense, 29th in total defense...they are a solid squad. This one should be over by halftime unless something screwy happens, or these teams play nothing like they've played all year. I dare say that this is one of my favorite games of the year.
7. @Oregon -18 v Arizona: This game is all over the board as far as a spread, but I just got it at 18 on Bet US. Oregon is coming off a terrible performance at Cal. It's ok, they're allowed one bad one. I seriously doubt it will happen again, and I don't think this Arizona defense will be much more than a wet nap in resistence. Arizona is looked at as a solid squad, but some careful observation will show that they really haven't been one. They beat iowa at home early, but so has 3 other teams, including Northwestern, and they needed several fluky plays to do it. The lost at home to Oregon St when the Beavers were lost. They should have lost to road Cal in Tucson. They gave up 400 yards of offense to UCLA. Stanford put up 500 yards on them, and they were noncompetitive in that one. They lost at home to USC. So ehat does that leave, as far as positives? Not much. Oregon is due to explode again, and I think they will. If Arizona plans on scoring 27 or so, maybe they'll cover...then again, maybe they won't because I think Oregon is going to want to make a statement. generally, I don't like laying points like this, but it's prudent here. I've been saying that I thought Oregon would drop one somewhere, but it won't be this week. I guess the Civil War then.
8. Boise -13 1/2 @Nevada: Boise is going to blow them out. Nevada won't hang with them. Nice team, but it's all Boise, all the time. Blood, Guts, Gore, Victory. By 28. Boom goes the dynamite.
Saturday, November 20, 2010
Week 12 Musings
First of all, sorry for all the typos. The gold continues. 4-7-1 last week, I'm woefully under .500, about 15,000 leagues under the sea with no chance in hell of ever reaching the surface, because if I was ever going to do that, I'd have to actually pick a game correctly. Some real zingers this past week too. Texas Tech. Florida, otherwise known as the most clueless offensive team in the country. Hey Urban! I think your team sucks! Did you here that? Your team smells of manure, and your players enjoy having lewd relations with one another! This is after they effeminately prance around the field ultimately making fools of themselves and you. I dare you to look knowlingly at the sky and cause a lightning bolt to strike me down as I type this!
I also gave you Colorado St, who was completely obliterated 7 real time minutes after their kickoff with BYU. It's a wonder I didn't give you the Redskins and the team under for the Eagles on Monday night as well. Or the under on the number of times the Illinois basketball team got beat to a loose ball or contested rebound in their game agaisnt Texas. Or the under on trillions of dollars the government might spend. Or the under on number of times Obama uses the term "working families". Or the over on Less Miles's ACT score. I have to double check to make sure I didn't tell all of you to take a short position on gold, or a long position on cat feces.
This song pretty much sums things up.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgSPaXgAdzE
Or this one.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KynpC1e9I9E
1. Northwestern +8 v Illinois(Wrigley): I realize that Dan Persa is injured and out for the year(too bad...he's a hell of a player), but I don't care if they throw Rusty Lisch or Gary Hogeboom, or Shitbag McFuckface out there at quarterback, we've all seen this story played out with Ron Zook before. Whenever Illinois is having a non-spectacular year, and appear headed to some sort of second tier bowl, they collapse in ways that you forgot a team could collapse. At least 3 times Illinois has headed north to play Northwestern needing a win to get bowl eligible, and each time they've failed miserably. The Zooker is going to have to get these kids to bounce back from yet another epic failure, as they somehow managed to lose to Minnesota at home last week, gaining fewer than 400 yards on what might be the most offensive and putrid defense in the country. Now they face NW, who will probably find a way to win. Gameday is coming to Wrigley so the game will get some exposure. Even more reason to fail miserbably for the Cryin Ill lie and whine.
2. Penn State -10 v Indiana(Washington): Indiana whored out one of their home games for a big paycheck to play the Nittany Lions at the Redskins home stadium, and it's probably a good thing too, because I'm guessing there aren't a whole lot of Hoosier fans who want to associate themselves with the football program after they gave up 80+ last week in Madison. How many Indiana "football fans" do you are planning to make that trip? Not even friends and family. Maybe Bill Lynch's wife, but that's about it. Wisconsin scored on every single drive last week. They had a total of 13 drives. They scored 11 TDs and kicked a pair of field goals. Sometimes you can make a case that a team might be embarrased and will show up the following week with a good performance, but how in the world can you bounce back after taking such a brutal beating? Penn State played a lot closer to Ohio State than the score indicated last week, they played well offensively except for a couple of turnovers, which Indiana doesn't have the capacity to force. Also, IU's passing offense is greatly exaggerated, as they've pretty much resorted to dinks and dunks, and Penn State has the defensive talent to make them look foolish. The Hoosiers won't put up any defensive resistence either. Ha! I guess I was pretty much the master of the obvious just now!
3 Troy +22 @South Carolina: I really have a hard time seeing how South Carolina gets up for this game, or how they can even justify playing their top players(especially Marcus Lattimore) in it. They are in a horrendous sandwich spot, coming off their most important win in school history and with hated rival Clemson and then the SEC title game on deck. Troy is also coming off an embarrassing home loss to FIU last week, so South Carolina will likely get an inspired effort. Keep in mid that they have already played at Oklahoma St and lost only by 3 earlier this year, so they are capable of hanging with a good team on the road. This is one of the worst situational traps I've seen in a long time.
4. Pitt -3 @South Florida: USF is off 3 consecutive wins, including one against all odds helped by a kickoff return and a hail mary pass last week at Louisville. Give them credit, they won the games, but they are certainly not a good team. They've actually been a much better road team than home team...their last 2 home games include an outright loss to Syracuse and a one point squeaker against Rutgers where they failed to cover as an 11 point favorite. Pitt, on the other hand is coming off a tough loss at UCONN amd has had a couple additional days to prepare, not that Wanny will take advantage. It's true though that Pitt is a superior team to South Florida in just about every facet, and they need to win this week if they have any plans to win the Big East and get blown out in whatever bowl they qualify for. Pitt is due for a good game, and unless Skip Holtz is a super genius, USF in is line to shit the bed a bit.
5. Northern Illinois -14 1/2 @Ball State: NIU has really proven themselves as quite a juggernaut in the MAC this year. If you take away their opener agaisnt Iowa State in which starting QB Chandler Harnish was held out in favor of some jitterbug pipsqueak who couldn't throw the ball 8 yards, they only blemish is a 5 point loss at Illinois. Other than that, it's been death and destruction for just about everyone else on their schedule. They've already clinched the MAC west so there is some concern about motivation, but they are so much better than Ball State that I don't think it will matter. Ball St has looked like a legit D-1 team only a couple times this year, and never at home. Perrenial league doormat Eastern Michigan beat them there, winless Akron took them to OT and they lost to Liberty. NIU should roll...I'm thinking 47-17.
6. Ole Miss +16 @ LSU: I've liked LSU lately, especially as a dog, but they are back in their uncomfortable favorite role. LSu is ranked 86th in the country in yards per play, Ole Miss is ranked 33rd. You'd look at the results from these two teams last week and think that LSU(a 51-0 winner) should plow through the Rebs(a 52-14 loser), but look closer. LSU gained a grand total of 278 yards against the vaunted Lou-Mon defense, good for 4.5 per play, which is amemic. When they aren't motivated, they are awful on offense, and they are much better at night than in the afternoon, though that angle is a bit overblown. Ole Miss got embarrassed by Tennessee and Derek Dooley of all people last week, but that was mostly a result of 5 terrible turnovers. This is a rivalry game, and Ole Miss will be motivated to redeem themselves. LSU might sleepwalk a bit, similar to how they did when Tennessee should have beat them back in October.
7. Stanford -6 1/2 @ Cal: Yes, I'm going against home Cal here....probably not a good idea. That would especially appear to be the case when you review what Cal did last week. Had they gotten any semblance of a competent QB performance last week they certainly would have beaten Oregon, as their defense was magnificent against the previously unstoppable Ducks. Having watched parts of that game, although credit must be given to Cal, Oregon just seemed to be out of synch. I think they will be hard pressed to repeat that kind of perormance against another solid attack this week.Offensively, Cal is in big trouble because Brock mansion simply cannot throw the ball, and harbaugh knows it. You can;t hang with elite teams two weeks in a row with a grade school level quarterback. He was 10-28 for 68 yards against a mediocre Oregon pass defense for goodness sakes! Stanford is coming off a clunker of their own, having never really gotten going at Tempe agaisnt the Sun Devils last week. They are also coming off a embarrassing home loss to Cal in the Big Game last year, so Harbaugh will be bent on revenge. Like I said, fading home Cal is risky, but it looks like the right side to me.
8. Virginia Tech -2 @Miami(Fl): Stephen Morris is the new QB for Miami and he's getting a lot of pub because of the big plays the Canes have seen since Jacory Harris started having his female problems. But the truth is he's only completing 53% of his passes and has 3 INTs to go along with his 3TDs. Miami's D has been solid, but this VT offense has been very efficient both in the running game and the passing game. When it comes down to it, I just don't think Miami has the chops to pull off a win against a good VT team here.
9 @Iowa +3 v Ohio St: Iowa must be played as a home dog. They are much too good a team to be sdogged at home by anyone, let alone a Buckeye squad that almost certainly will have issues moving the ball on them. Iowa actually has what appears to be the more explosive offense, they are at home, and the defenses are close if not even. Ohio St under Pryor has had major difficulties on the road, and I think they run into them again. Statistically these teams are very similar and Iowa is coming off two flat performances in a row...they are due to play a crisp game, and if they do, i don;t think OSU is good enough to overcome that.
10. Army +8 1/2 v Notre Dame: ND got lucky last week against Utah..don't let that 28-3 score fool you. They gained a grand total of 256 yards. I figured they would have difficulty moving the ball on Utah with Tommy Rees and without Rudolph, Riddick and Allen, and I was right. I just didn;t see the turnovers and special teams things happening. Army is a solid squad this year, they are already bowl eligible. They give their best effort against a bunch of backups who have already been torched by navy. Army is the poor man's Navy, so rather than win by 18, I think they'll merely provide good competition for ND, and that's all we need.
11. Rutgers +13 1/2 @Cincinnati: Although I'm not a big fan of Rutgers, with the way things are going for Cincinnati, I'm not sure how you fail to take these points here. Zack Collaros should be back, but he was back last week when WV pounded them, and they are 3-5 with him at the helm anyway. Defensively, Rutgers is good enough to put up a fight, and they have enough offense to score some points on Cincy's piss poor pass defense. Way too many points to lay with a team that has potentially given up.
12. @Texas A&M +2 1/2 v Nebraska: Hopefully this line will move to where you can afford it at 3, but I'm not sure that will happen, so I'll pull the trigger at this line. I'm going to continue to ride A&M and the Taneyhill train. It's true that Nebraska is ranked #1 in the country in pass efficiency defense, but they have played virtually no teams that can throw it effectively. This will be their top test in that regard. A&M's defense has been very good this year, though their inability to stop the run at Baylor last week concerns me. However, they have stopped more potent offenses than Nebraska, holding Okie St and Arkansas both to season lows in yards gained. If they can bottle up Taylor Martinez like Texas did, they have a great shot of winning the game because I think they'll get theirs on offense, and they have stopped the straight ahead running game very well this year.
Others: Michigan can;t stop anyone from running the ball. Wisconsin (-4) comes in woth the best line in the country...it should not be pretty in that phase of the game. Not playing it because it looks so obvious, but DRob ia having all kinds of problems staying healthy.....I hate betting on Clemson(-14), but they are definitely doing things right on D. They've given up 7,13,16,13 and 16 in their last 5 games, and Wake's offense is as pedestrian as the rest of 'em. They also are feeble on defense, so Clemson might finally be able to move it on someone....Gonna go with Colorado at home against Kansas St, since they are getting points at home and Kansas St can't sop the run to save their lives(last in FBS). Colorado likes to run it with Rodney Stewart, so they'll just pound away at home. I like fading Oklahoma on the road, so I probably will go with Baylor, and Navy will probably play down to their competition, as they always do. Even though Arky St is sad, I'll still take the points.
That's it, take care!!!!
I also gave you Colorado St, who was completely obliterated 7 real time minutes after their kickoff with BYU. It's a wonder I didn't give you the Redskins and the team under for the Eagles on Monday night as well. Or the under on the number of times the Illinois basketball team got beat to a loose ball or contested rebound in their game agaisnt Texas. Or the under on trillions of dollars the government might spend. Or the under on number of times Obama uses the term "working families". Or the over on Less Miles's ACT score. I have to double check to make sure I didn't tell all of you to take a short position on gold, or a long position on cat feces.
This song pretty much sums things up.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgSPaXgAdzE
Or this one.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KynpC1e9I9E
1. Northwestern +8 v Illinois(Wrigley): I realize that Dan Persa is injured and out for the year(too bad...he's a hell of a player), but I don't care if they throw Rusty Lisch or Gary Hogeboom, or Shitbag McFuckface out there at quarterback, we've all seen this story played out with Ron Zook before. Whenever Illinois is having a non-spectacular year, and appear headed to some sort of second tier bowl, they collapse in ways that you forgot a team could collapse. At least 3 times Illinois has headed north to play Northwestern needing a win to get bowl eligible, and each time they've failed miserably. The Zooker is going to have to get these kids to bounce back from yet another epic failure, as they somehow managed to lose to Minnesota at home last week, gaining fewer than 400 yards on what might be the most offensive and putrid defense in the country. Now they face NW, who will probably find a way to win. Gameday is coming to Wrigley so the game will get some exposure. Even more reason to fail miserbably for the Cryin Ill lie and whine.
2. Penn State -10 v Indiana(Washington): Indiana whored out one of their home games for a big paycheck to play the Nittany Lions at the Redskins home stadium, and it's probably a good thing too, because I'm guessing there aren't a whole lot of Hoosier fans who want to associate themselves with the football program after they gave up 80+ last week in Madison. How many Indiana "football fans" do you are planning to make that trip? Not even friends and family. Maybe Bill Lynch's wife, but that's about it. Wisconsin scored on every single drive last week. They had a total of 13 drives. They scored 11 TDs and kicked a pair of field goals. Sometimes you can make a case that a team might be embarrased and will show up the following week with a good performance, but how in the world can you bounce back after taking such a brutal beating? Penn State played a lot closer to Ohio State than the score indicated last week, they played well offensively except for a couple of turnovers, which Indiana doesn't have the capacity to force. Also, IU's passing offense is greatly exaggerated, as they've pretty much resorted to dinks and dunks, and Penn State has the defensive talent to make them look foolish. The Hoosiers won't put up any defensive resistence either. Ha! I guess I was pretty much the master of the obvious just now!
3 Troy +22 @South Carolina: I really have a hard time seeing how South Carolina gets up for this game, or how they can even justify playing their top players(especially Marcus Lattimore) in it. They are in a horrendous sandwich spot, coming off their most important win in school history and with hated rival Clemson and then the SEC title game on deck. Troy is also coming off an embarrassing home loss to FIU last week, so South Carolina will likely get an inspired effort. Keep in mid that they have already played at Oklahoma St and lost only by 3 earlier this year, so they are capable of hanging with a good team on the road. This is one of the worst situational traps I've seen in a long time.
4. Pitt -3 @South Florida: USF is off 3 consecutive wins, including one against all odds helped by a kickoff return and a hail mary pass last week at Louisville. Give them credit, they won the games, but they are certainly not a good team. They've actually been a much better road team than home team...their last 2 home games include an outright loss to Syracuse and a one point squeaker against Rutgers where they failed to cover as an 11 point favorite. Pitt, on the other hand is coming off a tough loss at UCONN amd has had a couple additional days to prepare, not that Wanny will take advantage. It's true though that Pitt is a superior team to South Florida in just about every facet, and they need to win this week if they have any plans to win the Big East and get blown out in whatever bowl they qualify for. Pitt is due for a good game, and unless Skip Holtz is a super genius, USF in is line to shit the bed a bit.
5. Northern Illinois -14 1/2 @Ball State: NIU has really proven themselves as quite a juggernaut in the MAC this year. If you take away their opener agaisnt Iowa State in which starting QB Chandler Harnish was held out in favor of some jitterbug pipsqueak who couldn't throw the ball 8 yards, they only blemish is a 5 point loss at Illinois. Other than that, it's been death and destruction for just about everyone else on their schedule. They've already clinched the MAC west so there is some concern about motivation, but they are so much better than Ball State that I don't think it will matter. Ball St has looked like a legit D-1 team only a couple times this year, and never at home. Perrenial league doormat Eastern Michigan beat them there, winless Akron took them to OT and they lost to Liberty. NIU should roll...I'm thinking 47-17.
6. Ole Miss +16 @ LSU: I've liked LSU lately, especially as a dog, but they are back in their uncomfortable favorite role. LSu is ranked 86th in the country in yards per play, Ole Miss is ranked 33rd. You'd look at the results from these two teams last week and think that LSU(a 51-0 winner) should plow through the Rebs(a 52-14 loser), but look closer. LSU gained a grand total of 278 yards against the vaunted Lou-Mon defense, good for 4.5 per play, which is amemic. When they aren't motivated, they are awful on offense, and they are much better at night than in the afternoon, though that angle is a bit overblown. Ole Miss got embarrassed by Tennessee and Derek Dooley of all people last week, but that was mostly a result of 5 terrible turnovers. This is a rivalry game, and Ole Miss will be motivated to redeem themselves. LSU might sleepwalk a bit, similar to how they did when Tennessee should have beat them back in October.
7. Stanford -6 1/2 @ Cal: Yes, I'm going against home Cal here....probably not a good idea. That would especially appear to be the case when you review what Cal did last week. Had they gotten any semblance of a competent QB performance last week they certainly would have beaten Oregon, as their defense was magnificent against the previously unstoppable Ducks. Having watched parts of that game, although credit must be given to Cal, Oregon just seemed to be out of synch. I think they will be hard pressed to repeat that kind of perormance against another solid attack this week.Offensively, Cal is in big trouble because Brock mansion simply cannot throw the ball, and harbaugh knows it. You can;t hang with elite teams two weeks in a row with a grade school level quarterback. He was 10-28 for 68 yards against a mediocre Oregon pass defense for goodness sakes! Stanford is coming off a clunker of their own, having never really gotten going at Tempe agaisnt the Sun Devils last week. They are also coming off a embarrassing home loss to Cal in the Big Game last year, so Harbaugh will be bent on revenge. Like I said, fading home Cal is risky, but it looks like the right side to me.
8. Virginia Tech -2 @Miami(Fl): Stephen Morris is the new QB for Miami and he's getting a lot of pub because of the big plays the Canes have seen since Jacory Harris started having his female problems. But the truth is he's only completing 53% of his passes and has 3 INTs to go along with his 3TDs. Miami's D has been solid, but this VT offense has been very efficient both in the running game and the passing game. When it comes down to it, I just don't think Miami has the chops to pull off a win against a good VT team here.
9 @Iowa +3 v Ohio St: Iowa must be played as a home dog. They are much too good a team to be sdogged at home by anyone, let alone a Buckeye squad that almost certainly will have issues moving the ball on them. Iowa actually has what appears to be the more explosive offense, they are at home, and the defenses are close if not even. Ohio St under Pryor has had major difficulties on the road, and I think they run into them again. Statistically these teams are very similar and Iowa is coming off two flat performances in a row...they are due to play a crisp game, and if they do, i don;t think OSU is good enough to overcome that.
10. Army +8 1/2 v Notre Dame: ND got lucky last week against Utah..don't let that 28-3 score fool you. They gained a grand total of 256 yards. I figured they would have difficulty moving the ball on Utah with Tommy Rees and without Rudolph, Riddick and Allen, and I was right. I just didn;t see the turnovers and special teams things happening. Army is a solid squad this year, they are already bowl eligible. They give their best effort against a bunch of backups who have already been torched by navy. Army is the poor man's Navy, so rather than win by 18, I think they'll merely provide good competition for ND, and that's all we need.
11. Rutgers +13 1/2 @Cincinnati: Although I'm not a big fan of Rutgers, with the way things are going for Cincinnati, I'm not sure how you fail to take these points here. Zack Collaros should be back, but he was back last week when WV pounded them, and they are 3-5 with him at the helm anyway. Defensively, Rutgers is good enough to put up a fight, and they have enough offense to score some points on Cincy's piss poor pass defense. Way too many points to lay with a team that has potentially given up.
12. @Texas A&M +2 1/2 v Nebraska: Hopefully this line will move to where you can afford it at 3, but I'm not sure that will happen, so I'll pull the trigger at this line. I'm going to continue to ride A&M and the Taneyhill train. It's true that Nebraska is ranked #1 in the country in pass efficiency defense, but they have played virtually no teams that can throw it effectively. This will be their top test in that regard. A&M's defense has been very good this year, though their inability to stop the run at Baylor last week concerns me. However, they have stopped more potent offenses than Nebraska, holding Okie St and Arkansas both to season lows in yards gained. If they can bottle up Taylor Martinez like Texas did, they have a great shot of winning the game because I think they'll get theirs on offense, and they have stopped the straight ahead running game very well this year.
Others: Michigan can;t stop anyone from running the ball. Wisconsin (-4) comes in woth the best line in the country...it should not be pretty in that phase of the game. Not playing it because it looks so obvious, but DRob ia having all kinds of problems staying healthy.....I hate betting on Clemson(-14), but they are definitely doing things right on D. They've given up 7,13,16,13 and 16 in their last 5 games, and Wake's offense is as pedestrian as the rest of 'em. They also are feeble on defense, so Clemson might finally be able to move it on someone....Gonna go with Colorado at home against Kansas St, since they are getting points at home and Kansas St can't sop the run to save their lives(last in FBS). Colorado likes to run it with Rodney Stewart, so they'll just pound away at home. I like fading Oklahoma on the road, so I probably will go with Baylor, and Navy will probably play down to their competition, as they always do. Even though Arky St is sad, I'll still take the points.
That's it, take care!!!!
Saturday, November 13, 2010
Week 11 Musings
So the musings went 7-5-1 last week. Not bad, but not a very good recipe for success if you are trying to get your yearly record back to .500. It's similar to a boxing match where you take a haymaker, land a couple love taps, then take a couple more haymakers, then land a love tap. Does that work? No. You end up looking this this guy.
Not good. So, the overall record for this year comes now to 56-68-5. So we'll need to go 13-0 this week. Shouldn't be that difficult. I noticed that Oklahoma State is a sizable favorite over Texas this week. Hmmmm...that reminds me of the preseason musings. I think I might have made mention that I thought they were going to struggle this year. Let's take a look, to see how I fared in my prognostications, shall we?
Here's who I liked:
1. Auburn - "...they have a legitimate shot to be undefeated when they tee it up with Alabama in Tuscaloosa in the Iron Bowl..." Ok. Nice start.
2. Boise: That was a given. Not impressive.
3. A&M "...they willshow a lot of improvement on D because they brought in AirForce's former defensive coordinator..." Nice. A&M total defense yards per pay last year: 90th. This year: 9th. Good call.
4. South Carolina, vis a vis their chances in the SEC East. "...Florida will probably experience some growing pains..." Yes. "..Tennessee is a train wreck.." Yes. "...Steven Garcia is no virtuoso back there.." Nailed it.
5. Iowa and Wisconsin: No kidding, but Wisconsin is doing better than people thought.
Overall, not a bad list.
Who I didn't like:
1. Tennessee: Oh yeah, but that was easy to call.
2. LSU: Ugh...Ole Less has pulled yet another rabbit out of his hat. Someone cue the loud buzzer on that one.
3. BYU: Nailed this one. They've turned out even worse than I thought.
4. Oklahoma St: "...Talk about a cupboard being left bare....good Lord. Luckily for them Zac Robinson got hurt for awhile last year so QB Brandon Weeden could get some experience, otherwise, it would be Kendall Hunter and the 21 dwarves as far as returning experience goes. Hopefully, that punk Mike Gundy recruited some athletes." I guess I had never heard of Justin Blackmon. I also compared them to Washington St of all people. it's time to stand up and count Mike Gundy as one of the better coaches out there. I apologize for my poor judgement there.
On to this week. And remember....to quote Martin Short in the famous synchronized swimming "documentary" on SNL in the mid to late 80's..."I'm not that strong a hanicapper".
1. @Louisville -2 v South Florida: Both teams come into this game needing a win to become bowl eligible, but it's certainly more remarkable for Louisville, as many had them pegged for last in the Big East. Louisville has some question marks on offense in this game because they might be missing their QB and standout RB Bilal Powell, but they were missing both of those dudes last week and they handled Syracuse on the road anyway. I think USF will have all kinds of trouble getting anything going offensively against a pretty good Louisville defense, and the Cards have the added motivation of Senior Day and the home crowd. All we'll need is for them to win, and I think they can handle that.
2 Miami -2 1/2 @Georgia Tech: As I've mentioned in some previous entries, Georgia Tech just is not the same team as they were last year, and now they will be missing Josh Nesbitt, who is out for the year after fracturing his arm last week. I had a chance to watch backup Tevian Robinson, and he looked clueless with his decision making. They are also banged up in the backfield, and on the OL, which is not a good thing against this Miami defense who has been extremely good all year this year, and completely shut down this option attack last year in Miami. No word yet on if Jacory Harris plays, but if I'm a 'Canes fan, I actually root for a hangnail for Jacory so he doesn't play, as backup Stephen Morris has been just as good as Harris without the annoyances of the rapid fire INTs followed by lighting fast pouting. GT has had trouble stopping good passing attacks, which Miami has. Bad matchup for the Jackets.
3. @Colorado +2 1/2 v Iowa State: I realize that Colorado just made a coaching change, but in this case, it might have a positive effect. Also, Iowa State is completely foreign to the role of conference road favorite, having been in that role only once in the last 16 conference road games. Colorado, despite all they've botched in recent years, can run it a bit with Rodney Stewart, and they've had some success at home, having knocked off Georgia and rather easily dispatched Hawaii(which I am still trying to figure out.) I think they play with some urgency and get it done this week against a team that will be completely out of their element on the road.
4. Utah -5 @Notre Dame: I usually like to back the dog in games like this, but Notre Dame just doesn't have the players to compete in this game. If they had been injury free this year and not lost the likes of QB Crist, Armando Allen, Rudolph, etc,you could possibly make a case for them, but not now, especially when we are almost guaranted that their defense will continue to play the "matador" scheme. ND's strength is their offense, but we saw(Navy) how they can get in trouble when they are missing their playmakers, and in that case, even their offense looks bad. Utah, despite having their collective heads lopped off last week at home by TCU, does possess a statistically elite defense. I just don't see how the Irish will be able to keep up in this one, but it's definitely a public play.
5.Texas Tech +15 @Oklahoma: It's dangerous to fade the Sooners in Norman, but I remain convinced that this team is not very good. Statistically, these two teams are similar, and you can make several cases that TT is actually superior to Oklahoma on offense, especially when you look at the rushing numbes for the Sooners. TT struggles with turnovers, but if the Red Raiders can avoid getting turnovers, they might have enough power to put a big scare in to the Sooners, and you have to wonder about OU's psyche since they are now playing without the carrot in front of them.
6. Wyoming -4 1/2 @ UNLV: Haaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhh???? Wyoming lost last week to New Mexico!!! How in the world can I back them as a road favorite this week??? Because they appear to have a running game scratched together, and they are playing UNLV, who is probably the biggest collection of sad sacks college football has seen in awhile. They have not warmed up to their new coach, and rumors abound that they have given up for the season. Their results certainly indicate that. Since their rivalry game with Nevada, they have not been competitive, having lost 49-10, 43-10, 48-6 and 55-7 in their last 4. They are absolutely laying down for people. Any kind of rational number must be taken when the opponent is UNLV at this point.
7. @Colorado St +6 1/2 v BYU: Even when BYU was good they always struggled in Fort Collins. Now, CSU has a better offense, a comparable defense, and is getting 6 1/2.. BYu has not been competitive at all on the road, and Colorado State is getting better as their true freshman QB finally figures out how to throw the ball further than 7 yards downfield.
8. Texas A&M -3 @Baylor: Baylor really let me down last week when they traveled to Boone Pickens's house to take on the OSU Cowboys and got blown out. They have all kinds of problems on defense, and as you might have heard, I am on board with the decision to throw Ryan Taneyhill out there to get the offense rolling. A&M's defense is for real, so I'll give them a much better shot at stopping that Baylor attack, while I expect limited response from the Baylor D against Mike Sherman's game plan.
9. @Florida St: -6 v Clemson: Clemson can't do a thing on offense as long as Andre Ellington is out of commision, especially this week because the FSU defense is plenty pertubed about the grabby grab performance they showed against UNC last week. One of the Stoops brothers is their DC, so I'm sure he was screaming and drooling and spitting when he talked all week at practice. You'll see an inspired defense, and as long as the offense can throw out a decent performance, FSU should be in good shape. Keep in mind that Clemson is only averaging 333 yards per game, and had only 260 last week. FSU's defense in Tallahassee is a hell of a lot more menacing than Nc State's is on the road, I can tell you that. There is some chatter that Christian Ponder might be a game time decision, but the Noles need this game, so I'm sure he's going to play.
10. @Florida -6 1/2 v South Carolina: The battle for the SEC East's spot in the SEC Championship game is on the line here, and Florida is in position again. South Carolina has not looked good lately. I can give them a pass for the game last week against Arkansas, since the game this week was for all the marbles regardless of what the Cocks did in that game. Even Spurrier looked like he mailed it in. I'm not making this determination based at all on that game, because I think South Carolina is going to play a spirited game. But even so, things just have a way of falling apart for this program. That's been evident in Spurrier's entire tenure. I will be rooting hard for them in this game, because I really don't want to see Florida in the SEC title game again, but I just don't see it. RB Marcus Lattimore is extremely important to their success offensively, and he is very banged up and won't be 100%. That means that Stephen garcia will have to conjure up a second herculean performance this year, and the poor kid just doesn't have it in him. The over under on Florida defensive scores should probably be set at 1.5, as they are a ball hawking bunch, and Urban undoubtedly wants a couple, so it shall be so. Like I said..I'll be rooting for the Cocks, but I see this being a 28-13 type game.
11. Mississippi St +13 @Alabama: I think it's going to be hard for Alabama to produce enough points to cover 13 against Mississippi St (+13) even though the game is in Tuscaloosa. Miss St is ranked 24th in the country in yards per play, so I would see a yardage total of about 350 for Bama in this one, and it's hard to cover double digits in that case unless you get a bunch of turnovers. It can happen, because Miss St isn't very good on offense, but I have faith in Dan Mullen to cover this. Kudos to the Mulldogs, by the way...their road slate in the SEC is @LSU, @Florida and @Bamaplus the Egg Bowl, and they'll probably be in a good bowl game. They also were a dropped pass away from beating Auburn in that early Thursday nighter too. Not sure about Alabama's psyche coming into this game either.
12 @Arizona St +5 1/2 v Stanford: Arizona St is a completely snakebitten team. They've lost by 1 at Wisconsin because of a blocked extra point, then lost by one last week at USC because USC took back a blocked extra point for 2. They also lost at Oregon State on a last second FG, and outgained Oregon by 200+ yards in another loss. Their other loss was by 50 or something, but that was to Home Cal, so no criticism there. Now they get Stanford at home, and this is the #1 public play of the week. It's more of a hunch for me, because this line has not budged..it seems like Vegas is begging for money on ASU. Also, I think Stanford is due for a clunker, as they've looked absolutely fabulous the last couple weeks.
Others: I think there's a good chance that Purdue might be getting 14 when all is said and done, so I have a hunch that the Boilers will hang with Michigan at home. Their offense has been brutal, but they get to go against that Michigan D, and like I said, it's hard to cover a 2 TD spread when you can't stop anyone on defense....vandy has been an embarrassment this year, and they have dropped the ball twice in a row in their preferred role of road conference dog, but I'll have faith in them one more time as they travel to kentucly catching 14.5....Maryland is a sad sack program, but they find themselves still in the hunt in whatever division they play in in the ACC. I guess the other teams in their division, whoever the hell they are, haven't asserted themselves, so Maryland can win the damn thing if they win out. They'll probably fuck that up this week at Virginia(+2.5).... Nobody knows if Cam Newton is going to play this week, because it appears that the heat is getting very hot in the kitchen at Auburn regarding whether or not Newton's father sold him to Auburn. If I'm Auburn, if he gets declared ineligible, the whole season gts forfeited anyway, so I play him. However, there is some whispering that the NCAA is telling Auburn they have the goods, and the death penalty comes in play if they don't sit the kid immediately. Anyway, if Newton plays, Georgia is going to get a beat down, and the spread was at 7 last I saw. If not, the gme isn't betable, unless they favor Georgia or something stupid like that....Anyone who gets in the way of this Oregon runaway locomotive (like TCU) is a moron, so I won't make it a musing, but on principle, Home Cal is getting 20 points!!!! It's got to be taken, just to see if the earth will reverse it's rotation or something. Could be an atomic collision, since Home Cal is not human. It's like King Kong or something. Home Cal must be killed to be defeated....... I generally like Oklahoma St to beat Texas like a red headed stepchild this week, but Matt Millen is calling that game, so anything that can possibly completely ruin my viewing pleasure will happen in that game. I'd like to see Texas get crushed and embarrassed at home, so they'll probably sack up and win. Seriously, Millen equals death for me. I've had 5 or 6 musings on the games he's called, and I'm 0 for the year in those games. Last week, he called the Northwestern/Penn State game. No musing on that game last week, but I threw a couple bucks on NW +7, and I almost always root for the Cats. I wasn't watching during the first quarter, and was delighted to see the cats up 21-0. Then I started watching, and the Millen effect took hold. 35 unanswered points later, I lose the bet and realize the mistake I made. That guy is cancer. He's AIDS. He's whatever you hate the most in human form. I hope he comes across a band of homosexual bikers on the way to Austin and gets....ahh forget it.
Hope you guys have a good week. take care!!!!!!!!
Not good. So, the overall record for this year comes now to 56-68-5. So we'll need to go 13-0 this week. Shouldn't be that difficult. I noticed that Oklahoma State is a sizable favorite over Texas this week. Hmmmm...that reminds me of the preseason musings. I think I might have made mention that I thought they were going to struggle this year. Let's take a look, to see how I fared in my prognostications, shall we?
Here's who I liked:
1. Auburn - "...they have a legitimate shot to be undefeated when they tee it up with Alabama in Tuscaloosa in the Iron Bowl..." Ok. Nice start.
2. Boise: That was a given. Not impressive.
3. A&M "...they willshow a lot of improvement on D because they brought in AirForce's former defensive coordinator..." Nice. A&M total defense yards per pay last year: 90th. This year: 9th. Good call.
4. South Carolina, vis a vis their chances in the SEC East. "...Florida will probably experience some growing pains..." Yes. "..Tennessee is a train wreck.." Yes. "...Steven Garcia is no virtuoso back there.." Nailed it.
5. Iowa and Wisconsin: No kidding, but Wisconsin is doing better than people thought.
Overall, not a bad list.
Who I didn't like:
1. Tennessee: Oh yeah, but that was easy to call.
2. LSU: Ugh...Ole Less has pulled yet another rabbit out of his hat. Someone cue the loud buzzer on that one.
3. BYU: Nailed this one. They've turned out even worse than I thought.
4. Oklahoma St: "...Talk about a cupboard being left bare....good Lord. Luckily for them Zac Robinson got hurt for awhile last year so QB Brandon Weeden could get some experience, otherwise, it would be Kendall Hunter and the 21 dwarves as far as returning experience goes. Hopefully, that punk Mike Gundy recruited some athletes." I guess I had never heard of Justin Blackmon. I also compared them to Washington St of all people. it's time to stand up and count Mike Gundy as one of the better coaches out there. I apologize for my poor judgement there.
On to this week. And remember....to quote Martin Short in the famous synchronized swimming "documentary" on SNL in the mid to late 80's..."I'm not that strong a hanicapper".
1. @Louisville -2 v South Florida: Both teams come into this game needing a win to become bowl eligible, but it's certainly more remarkable for Louisville, as many had them pegged for last in the Big East. Louisville has some question marks on offense in this game because they might be missing their QB and standout RB Bilal Powell, but they were missing both of those dudes last week and they handled Syracuse on the road anyway. I think USF will have all kinds of trouble getting anything going offensively against a pretty good Louisville defense, and the Cards have the added motivation of Senior Day and the home crowd. All we'll need is for them to win, and I think they can handle that.
2 Miami -2 1/2 @Georgia Tech: As I've mentioned in some previous entries, Georgia Tech just is not the same team as they were last year, and now they will be missing Josh Nesbitt, who is out for the year after fracturing his arm last week. I had a chance to watch backup Tevian Robinson, and he looked clueless with his decision making. They are also banged up in the backfield, and on the OL, which is not a good thing against this Miami defense who has been extremely good all year this year, and completely shut down this option attack last year in Miami. No word yet on if Jacory Harris plays, but if I'm a 'Canes fan, I actually root for a hangnail for Jacory so he doesn't play, as backup Stephen Morris has been just as good as Harris without the annoyances of the rapid fire INTs followed by lighting fast pouting. GT has had trouble stopping good passing attacks, which Miami has. Bad matchup for the Jackets.
3. @Colorado +2 1/2 v Iowa State: I realize that Colorado just made a coaching change, but in this case, it might have a positive effect. Also, Iowa State is completely foreign to the role of conference road favorite, having been in that role only once in the last 16 conference road games. Colorado, despite all they've botched in recent years, can run it a bit with Rodney Stewart, and they've had some success at home, having knocked off Georgia and rather easily dispatched Hawaii(which I am still trying to figure out.) I think they play with some urgency and get it done this week against a team that will be completely out of their element on the road.
4. Utah -5 @Notre Dame: I usually like to back the dog in games like this, but Notre Dame just doesn't have the players to compete in this game. If they had been injury free this year and not lost the likes of QB Crist, Armando Allen, Rudolph, etc,you could possibly make a case for them, but not now, especially when we are almost guaranted that their defense will continue to play the "matador" scheme. ND's strength is their offense, but we saw(Navy) how they can get in trouble when they are missing their playmakers, and in that case, even their offense looks bad. Utah, despite having their collective heads lopped off last week at home by TCU, does possess a statistically elite defense. I just don't see how the Irish will be able to keep up in this one, but it's definitely a public play.
5.Texas Tech +15 @Oklahoma: It's dangerous to fade the Sooners in Norman, but I remain convinced that this team is not very good. Statistically, these two teams are similar, and you can make several cases that TT is actually superior to Oklahoma on offense, especially when you look at the rushing numbes for the Sooners. TT struggles with turnovers, but if the Red Raiders can avoid getting turnovers, they might have enough power to put a big scare in to the Sooners, and you have to wonder about OU's psyche since they are now playing without the carrot in front of them.
6. Wyoming -4 1/2 @ UNLV: Haaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhh???? Wyoming lost last week to New Mexico!!! How in the world can I back them as a road favorite this week??? Because they appear to have a running game scratched together, and they are playing UNLV, who is probably the biggest collection of sad sacks college football has seen in awhile. They have not warmed up to their new coach, and rumors abound that they have given up for the season. Their results certainly indicate that. Since their rivalry game with Nevada, they have not been competitive, having lost 49-10, 43-10, 48-6 and 55-7 in their last 4. They are absolutely laying down for people. Any kind of rational number must be taken when the opponent is UNLV at this point.
7. @Colorado St +6 1/2 v BYU: Even when BYU was good they always struggled in Fort Collins. Now, CSU has a better offense, a comparable defense, and is getting 6 1/2.. BYu has not been competitive at all on the road, and Colorado State is getting better as their true freshman QB finally figures out how to throw the ball further than 7 yards downfield.
8. Texas A&M -3 @Baylor: Baylor really let me down last week when they traveled to Boone Pickens's house to take on the OSU Cowboys and got blown out. They have all kinds of problems on defense, and as you might have heard, I am on board with the decision to throw Ryan Taneyhill out there to get the offense rolling. A&M's defense is for real, so I'll give them a much better shot at stopping that Baylor attack, while I expect limited response from the Baylor D against Mike Sherman's game plan.
9. @Florida St: -6 v Clemson: Clemson can't do a thing on offense as long as Andre Ellington is out of commision, especially this week because the FSU defense is plenty pertubed about the grabby grab performance they showed against UNC last week. One of the Stoops brothers is their DC, so I'm sure he was screaming and drooling and spitting when he talked all week at practice. You'll see an inspired defense, and as long as the offense can throw out a decent performance, FSU should be in good shape. Keep in mind that Clemson is only averaging 333 yards per game, and had only 260 last week. FSU's defense in Tallahassee is a hell of a lot more menacing than Nc State's is on the road, I can tell you that. There is some chatter that Christian Ponder might be a game time decision, but the Noles need this game, so I'm sure he's going to play.
10. @Florida -6 1/2 v South Carolina: The battle for the SEC East's spot in the SEC Championship game is on the line here, and Florida is in position again. South Carolina has not looked good lately. I can give them a pass for the game last week against Arkansas, since the game this week was for all the marbles regardless of what the Cocks did in that game. Even Spurrier looked like he mailed it in. I'm not making this determination based at all on that game, because I think South Carolina is going to play a spirited game. But even so, things just have a way of falling apart for this program. That's been evident in Spurrier's entire tenure. I will be rooting hard for them in this game, because I really don't want to see Florida in the SEC title game again, but I just don't see it. RB Marcus Lattimore is extremely important to their success offensively, and he is very banged up and won't be 100%. That means that Stephen garcia will have to conjure up a second herculean performance this year, and the poor kid just doesn't have it in him. The over under on Florida defensive scores should probably be set at 1.5, as they are a ball hawking bunch, and Urban undoubtedly wants a couple, so it shall be so. Like I said..I'll be rooting for the Cocks, but I see this being a 28-13 type game.
11. Mississippi St +13 @Alabama: I think it's going to be hard for Alabama to produce enough points to cover 13 against Mississippi St (+13) even though the game is in Tuscaloosa. Miss St is ranked 24th in the country in yards per play, so I would see a yardage total of about 350 for Bama in this one, and it's hard to cover double digits in that case unless you get a bunch of turnovers. It can happen, because Miss St isn't very good on offense, but I have faith in Dan Mullen to cover this. Kudos to the Mulldogs, by the way...their road slate in the SEC is @LSU, @Florida and @Bamaplus the Egg Bowl, and they'll probably be in a good bowl game. They also were a dropped pass away from beating Auburn in that early Thursday nighter too. Not sure about Alabama's psyche coming into this game either.
12 @Arizona St +5 1/2 v Stanford: Arizona St is a completely snakebitten team. They've lost by 1 at Wisconsin because of a blocked extra point, then lost by one last week at USC because USC took back a blocked extra point for 2. They also lost at Oregon State on a last second FG, and outgained Oregon by 200+ yards in another loss. Their other loss was by 50 or something, but that was to Home Cal, so no criticism there. Now they get Stanford at home, and this is the #1 public play of the week. It's more of a hunch for me, because this line has not budged..it seems like Vegas is begging for money on ASU. Also, I think Stanford is due for a clunker, as they've looked absolutely fabulous the last couple weeks.
Others: I think there's a good chance that Purdue might be getting 14 when all is said and done, so I have a hunch that the Boilers will hang with Michigan at home. Their offense has been brutal, but they get to go against that Michigan D, and like I said, it's hard to cover a 2 TD spread when you can't stop anyone on defense....vandy has been an embarrassment this year, and they have dropped the ball twice in a row in their preferred role of road conference dog, but I'll have faith in them one more time as they travel to kentucly catching 14.5....Maryland is a sad sack program, but they find themselves still in the hunt in whatever division they play in in the ACC. I guess the other teams in their division, whoever the hell they are, haven't asserted themselves, so Maryland can win the damn thing if they win out. They'll probably fuck that up this week at Virginia(+2.5).... Nobody knows if Cam Newton is going to play this week, because it appears that the heat is getting very hot in the kitchen at Auburn regarding whether or not Newton's father sold him to Auburn. If I'm Auburn, if he gets declared ineligible, the whole season gts forfeited anyway, so I play him. However, there is some whispering that the NCAA is telling Auburn they have the goods, and the death penalty comes in play if they don't sit the kid immediately. Anyway, if Newton plays, Georgia is going to get a beat down, and the spread was at 7 last I saw. If not, the gme isn't betable, unless they favor Georgia or something stupid like that....Anyone who gets in the way of this Oregon runaway locomotive (like TCU) is a moron, so I won't make it a musing, but on principle, Home Cal is getting 20 points!!!! It's got to be taken, just to see if the earth will reverse it's rotation or something. Could be an atomic collision, since Home Cal is not human. It's like King Kong or something. Home Cal must be killed to be defeated....... I generally like Oklahoma St to beat Texas like a red headed stepchild this week, but Matt Millen is calling that game, so anything that can possibly completely ruin my viewing pleasure will happen in that game. I'd like to see Texas get crushed and embarrassed at home, so they'll probably sack up and win. Seriously, Millen equals death for me. I've had 5 or 6 musings on the games he's called, and I'm 0 for the year in those games. Last week, he called the Northwestern/Penn State game. No musing on that game last week, but I threw a couple bucks on NW +7, and I almost always root for the Cats. I wasn't watching during the first quarter, and was delighted to see the cats up 21-0. Then I started watching, and the Millen effect took hold. 35 unanswered points later, I lose the bet and realize the mistake I made. That guy is cancer. He's AIDS. He's whatever you hate the most in human form. I hope he comes across a band of homosexual bikers on the way to Austin and gets....ahh forget it.
Hope you guys have a good week. take care!!!!!!!!
Saturday, November 6, 2010
Week 10 Musings
Mark Dantonio, you might want to have one of your worthless homosexual players start your car this week. I was made a fool of last week by your chicken shit team, and I don't take kindly to being made a fool of. Dickrod....do you think it might be time to find a single player who can tackle someone, or perhaps it might be time to hire a defensive coordinator who breathes through his nose occasionally? Houston Dale Nutt....you could have confused Cam Newton by making him wear his unfamiliar white uniform, but you couldn't even figure that out, and Auburn rearranged your team's collective face. (And yeah, that was the only reason.) Lane Kiffin, you gave me yet another reason as to why you sit atop my list of people I'd most like to punch in the face. Look at the bright side, though..at least your team of 5 star Adonis athletes were able to hold Oregon under 600 total yards(599) on your home field. You can be proud of that.
The musings went 4-6-1 last week, which brings the overall record to 8-79-3 for the year. At least it feels that way. I am officially punch drunk. The actual record is 49-63-4...almost no chance to battle back to .500. I'm hoping everyone got my subliminals last week. Believe it or not, I was fortunate to cover a game last week. I told you all that I would relay any information about a fortunate break for the musings if it ever happened, and for the first time in weeks, it did. Marshall should not have covered against UTEP last week. With 7 minutes left in the game, UTEP trailed 7-6, then scored a TD. However, Marshall blocked the PAT and ran it back for 2 points, which made the score 12-9 when it should have been 13-7. Marshall then took the next possession and scored a TD, taking the lead 16-12 and eventually covering the 3. So there. It happened. Once. I'll continue to report any additional lucky breaks.
Once thing I failed to mention last week was the remarkable events of the World Series. Not so much that the Rangers and Giants franchises made it, but that a team managed by Ron Washington AND a team generally managed by Brian Sabean actually both made the world series. I don't think people realize how unlikely this was. First, have any of you ever seen Ron Washington? First of all, he's an admitted coke fiend. He looks like he would be just as likely to be found sprawled on the sidewalk in front of a Harvey liquor store as he would be in the Rangers clubhouse...actually much more so. It would literally take me all night to list all of the bonehead moves that Brian Sabean has made over the years, but suffice it to say he makes Jim Hendry look like an astute follower of sabermetrics. He doesn't have the sense God gave to an ant. That those two made it to the World Series makes you understand that sometimes the Good Lord works in mysterious ways. He proved that when Less Miles got a head coaching job.
On to this weeks laughable attempt. As always, I swear I really like these games!!!
1. Maryland +8 @Miami(FL): Back to the well against Miami, for what seems like about the 10th time this season. Of course it's a very dangerous play because Maryland sucks ass on offense and they are coming off a game of a lifetime against Wake(62-14) and Miami just lost to Vagina of all people, so you couldn't possibly get less value with this spread. However, consider this: Maryland is 6-2, and they are ranked 7th in the country in yards allowed per play. They will be facing a backup QB who failed to complete even 41% of his passes in relief duty of the concussed and fetal position prone Jacory Harris and threw in 3 picks for good measure. They also will be without starting RB Damien berry, who has been getting ALL the carries in this offense lately, and Maryland is ranked 18th in the country against the run. Miami at this point has lost all hope of reaching any of their goals, and they aren't well coached to begin with. Another half filled house awaits them at noon in that stadium...you might get a lethargic performance even for them. Like I said, Maryland is 6-2, and smells a much better bowl game than they thought they had a right to dream about coming in to the season. I think there's a good chance Maryland wins this outright. I'll be surprised if Miami plays inspired at all.
2. Louisville +7 @Syracuse: I would buy this up from the current 6.5...the line moved from 6 earlier today, so it might be 7 when the public gets a hold of it tomorrow. Syracuse has been a nice story, and I've profited on them quite a bit this year. they have been a very good road dog, but they, and teams like them are very ill-suited for this role. Offensively, they are doing things with smoke and mirrors. Statistically, these two teams are basically identical, but it looks like Louisville RB Bilal Powell, their best player, won't be playing. They have a previous 1k rusher ready to step in (Victor Anderson) so the line move will be sufficient to cover for the value. This game can be capped with both teams managing about 275-300 yards of total offense. It's very hard for a team to cover a sizable spread with those conditions, and as I mentioned Syracuse is very ill suited for the favorites role. How many times have you seen a team relish the dog role and cover based on good breaks and nice bounces, then come home and lay an egg as a decent sized favorite? Happens a lot.
3. @Army +7 v Air Force: Buy it to 7, or just play it at 6.5 if you don't want to. I think this might finally be the year Army cracks the code and beats one of these other service academies. The Knights at 5-3, and although they haven't beaten anyone of note, and have played nowhere near the schedule of Air Force, I think they can win on Saturday. First, the situation works greatly in their favor. AF is coming off a tough loss in their last marquee test of the year at home with Utah. Now they have to travel all the way to West Point to play Army, who has been paying in wait for them for 3 weeks, since they are off a bye and a warmup with VMI the past two weeks. AF continues to be woeful against the run, which is all Army does, and Army has hung in there in all facets on defense. I just think this is a terrible spot for AF, and there's no doubt that this is Army's Superbowl to date for the year. (Until they play Navy).
4. NC State +4 @Clemson: I just got it at 4 on Bet Us..hopefully it'll stay there. I just couldn't stay away from this one, as much as I wanted to. Frankly, I'm very surprised that this line has stayed where it is even after Clemson RB Andre Ellington was ruled out of this game. Ellington basically IS the Clemson offense. In recent weeks, if he doesn't run for long TD's either at RB or on a return, Clemson doesn't score. To wit: He didn't do anything last week at BC. They lost. The week before that, Clemson scored 3 Tds. He scored all 3. 2 on long runs, and 1 on a 10 yard reception after his punt return set up Clemson in the red zone. The week before that he returned a kickoff for a score and a punt to the red zone to set up another score (which he scored) against Maryland. Two weeks before that, he scored all 3 of their TDs against Miami, including a 71 yarder. Also, Clemson is now 4-4, and my guy Dabo is hearing it from the unsatisfied Clemson faithful. If they struggle, expect to hear the boos, and NC State, though not great, has the balance on both sides of the ball to give them trouble. They're 6-2 by the way.
5. Baylor +8 1/2 @Oklahoma St: These two teams are completely indistinguishable from each other on paper. Oklahoma is slightly better on defense, but Baylor is a bit more explosive on offense. I also lean to Art Briles in the coaching matchup here. Baylor in almost every game has put up 600 yards or better, and we are all still waiting for Oklahoma St to be exposed. They haven't been great at home, having snuck past A&M and Troy while losing to Nebraska. Baylor is in dangerous territory since they just won their game of the decade against Texas, but I think they stay hungry and put up a good fight against the Pokes. With teams so similar and with similar rewards to play for 8.5 is a lot of points, even if the score gets up there.
6. Akron +13 1/2 @Ball State: Do I really recommend betting on a team that is 0-9 and coming off back to back shutouts? If they are getting two TDs from Ball State, yep. Akron is still looking for it's first W of the season, which if history is any guide, will almost certainly come. What better candidate than Ball State, a team that has already lost at home to Liberty and the putrid Eastern Michigan Eagles? You're also getting 13.5 here so even if you get mostly pasted, you will still have a great shot at a cover. An outright is definitely possible, unless BSU all of a sudden sacks up and takes care of business. (Snicker)
7 Nebraska -17 @Iowa St: I think Nebraska is going to completely destroy Iowa St in this one. The Huskers still remember Iowa St coming into their house and beating them 9-7 in what had to be one of the worst performances of the decade for the Nebraska offense. Iowa St has given up 50+ to Oklahoma and 68 to Utah in recent weeks, so Nebraska will likely see a lot of success with Taylor Martinez and company. Also, Iowa St has very little chance of doing much with the Nebraska defense, which has completely shut down most of the passing games they ave come across. I can see a 45-7 game here, very easily.
8. LSU + 6 1/2 v Alabama: Can LSU win this game? I have a hard time thinking they can, but that's my bias against Less Miles talking. Alabama has been struggling to find an identity on offense lately, and I think they will have a hard time getting points on the board in this game. LSU matches up much better against Alabama's offense than they do against an offense like Auburn's. They can stop the straight ahead running game of Ingram and Richardson, and Patrick Peterson can lock up Julio Jones. The question is whether LSU can score on Bama, and they've gotten lucky before. I just think that almost a full TD is too much here for the Tigers, and CBS's midday game usually results in a close score.
9. @Texas A&M +3 v Oklahoma: I've always wondered why Mike Sherman never got another pro job after he left the Packers. The guy was the head coach and I believe GM or a successful NFL team that was in the playoffs just about every year, and for all intents and purposes, the Packers were considered a well run organization at the time. Now he coaches A&M, and I think his offense has really taken off now that he has found the right Qb for his offense. Ryan Taneyhill was installed as the starter after some nice looking work in relief of turnover machine Jerod Johnson vs Kansas. Since then, A&M is putting up monster numbers. Oklahoma, on the other hand, has played twice on the road, and was outgained by it's foes both times. For the season, OU is ranked 50th in ypp on defense, and is 98th in rush offense. They've looked lethargic in their road games, and I think if Taneyhill plays aggressively, they can win this game.
10. Texas -3 1/2 @Kansas St: If you look at Texas during this slide, they have outgained all of their opponents, including Baylor last week and Oklahoma a couple weeks before. Texas matches up very well with Kansas St, since the Wildcats pretty much are relegated to running the ball. Texas stops the run for the most part, and I think K State is a bit out of their element. Texas wil probably be happy to be away from Austin as well.
11. Oregon St -5 @UCLA: The death march continues for this UCLA team . Oregon St, on the other hand, hits it's stride at this time of year every year. Their defensive stats are skewed a bit, as they've gotten some parts back from injury. UCLA simply can't score or throw the bal at all. Oregon St will get theirs since the line and offense appear to be settling in. I like the Beavers big in this one.
12. Arizona St +5 1/2 @ USC: This line looks like a misprint, but i like the situation for ASU. USC just had their SuperBowl, and they now enter their thrird consecutive home game. What, at this point, is there to get excited about for anyone in that program? That you can go 9-4?? Arizona St is certainly not an exciting opponent, but they have been a pretty good team this year with success on both sides of the ball. Take away their blowout loss to schitzophrenic Cal,(Aside......speaking of Cal, I don't think I've ever seen a team have such a bipolar personality based on whether they are at home or on the road. If anyone remembers the Tom and Jerry episode where Jerry mistakenly drinks the mothballs/acid combination that turns him into a seething growling beast who rips Tom's arms off, then immediately wears off and turns him back into a meek, tiny little mouse, that's home and road Cal. So losing to home Cal appears to just be a fact of life at this point) and they've lost by a FG at Oregon State, a single point at Wisconsin, and beat Washington handily when Washington was healthy. Also keep in mind that they are ranked 37th in yards per play on offense, while USC is 100th on defense, and you can see why the spread sits where it does. The public is 77% on USC, but I don't think they are taking into consideration the mammoth situational advantage enjoyed by ASU here.
Others: Don't look now, but the Illini can reach bowl eligibility with a win at Michigan, which would be their thrird in a row over Dickrod. hell, they still have a game with minnesota too, so they might get themselves to a Jan 1 bowl if they can find ways to beat Northwestern at Wrigley and Fresno at Fresno. Who knows. This will be an emotional hedge for me, as getting a third win in a row and further embarrassment for Dickrod is probably too much to ask. Michigan is laying only 3 at home.....I'll be fading the home run hire Turner Gill until he figures out a way to get within double digits of anyone. Colorado is laying 8 against them in lawrence this week. Can you believe that? Dan Hawkins, who will almost certainly be finally fired as soon as the final gun goes off, is bette than a TD favorite on the road against these guys.....Utah is getting 5 at home. I know that TCU is an 800 pound gorilla with a chainsaw for a penis, but you have to take Utah in that role....Wake looked so bad last week that there is no way I can resist laying 3 with BC at Wake. Would never recommend it as a musing, though. as BC should not be favored on the road....Is this the week WAZZOU gets a win? If not, they might cover because they are getting 14 against "puny Jerry" CaL, who will be without QB Kevin Riley.
That's it for this week. Keep on fading, bros!!!!
The musings went 4-6-1 last week, which brings the overall record to 8-79-3 for the year. At least it feels that way. I am officially punch drunk. The actual record is 49-63-4...almost no chance to battle back to .500. I'm hoping everyone got my subliminals last week. Believe it or not, I was fortunate to cover a game last week. I told you all that I would relay any information about a fortunate break for the musings if it ever happened, and for the first time in weeks, it did. Marshall should not have covered against UTEP last week. With 7 minutes left in the game, UTEP trailed 7-6, then scored a TD. However, Marshall blocked the PAT and ran it back for 2 points, which made the score 12-9 when it should have been 13-7. Marshall then took the next possession and scored a TD, taking the lead 16-12 and eventually covering the 3. So there. It happened. Once. I'll continue to report any additional lucky breaks.
Once thing I failed to mention last week was the remarkable events of the World Series. Not so much that the Rangers and Giants franchises made it, but that a team managed by Ron Washington AND a team generally managed by Brian Sabean actually both made the world series. I don't think people realize how unlikely this was. First, have any of you ever seen Ron Washington? First of all, he's an admitted coke fiend. He looks like he would be just as likely to be found sprawled on the sidewalk in front of a Harvey liquor store as he would be in the Rangers clubhouse...actually much more so. It would literally take me all night to list all of the bonehead moves that Brian Sabean has made over the years, but suffice it to say he makes Jim Hendry look like an astute follower of sabermetrics. He doesn't have the sense God gave to an ant. That those two made it to the World Series makes you understand that sometimes the Good Lord works in mysterious ways. He proved that when Less Miles got a head coaching job.
On to this weeks laughable attempt. As always, I swear I really like these games!!!
1. Maryland +8 @Miami(FL): Back to the well against Miami, for what seems like about the 10th time this season. Of course it's a very dangerous play because Maryland sucks ass on offense and they are coming off a game of a lifetime against Wake(62-14) and Miami just lost to Vagina of all people, so you couldn't possibly get less value with this spread. However, consider this: Maryland is 6-2, and they are ranked 7th in the country in yards allowed per play. They will be facing a backup QB who failed to complete even 41% of his passes in relief duty of the concussed and fetal position prone Jacory Harris and threw in 3 picks for good measure. They also will be without starting RB Damien berry, who has been getting ALL the carries in this offense lately, and Maryland is ranked 18th in the country against the run. Miami at this point has lost all hope of reaching any of their goals, and they aren't well coached to begin with. Another half filled house awaits them at noon in that stadium...you might get a lethargic performance even for them. Like I said, Maryland is 6-2, and smells a much better bowl game than they thought they had a right to dream about coming in to the season. I think there's a good chance Maryland wins this outright. I'll be surprised if Miami plays inspired at all.
2. Louisville +7 @Syracuse: I would buy this up from the current 6.5...the line moved from 6 earlier today, so it might be 7 when the public gets a hold of it tomorrow. Syracuse has been a nice story, and I've profited on them quite a bit this year. they have been a very good road dog, but they, and teams like them are very ill-suited for this role. Offensively, they are doing things with smoke and mirrors. Statistically, these two teams are basically identical, but it looks like Louisville RB Bilal Powell, their best player, won't be playing. They have a previous 1k rusher ready to step in (Victor Anderson) so the line move will be sufficient to cover for the value. This game can be capped with both teams managing about 275-300 yards of total offense. It's very hard for a team to cover a sizable spread with those conditions, and as I mentioned Syracuse is very ill suited for the favorites role. How many times have you seen a team relish the dog role and cover based on good breaks and nice bounces, then come home and lay an egg as a decent sized favorite? Happens a lot.
3. @Army +7 v Air Force: Buy it to 7, or just play it at 6.5 if you don't want to. I think this might finally be the year Army cracks the code and beats one of these other service academies. The Knights at 5-3, and although they haven't beaten anyone of note, and have played nowhere near the schedule of Air Force, I think they can win on Saturday. First, the situation works greatly in their favor. AF is coming off a tough loss in their last marquee test of the year at home with Utah. Now they have to travel all the way to West Point to play Army, who has been paying in wait for them for 3 weeks, since they are off a bye and a warmup with VMI the past two weeks. AF continues to be woeful against the run, which is all Army does, and Army has hung in there in all facets on defense. I just think this is a terrible spot for AF, and there's no doubt that this is Army's Superbowl to date for the year. (Until they play Navy).
4. NC State +4 @Clemson: I just got it at 4 on Bet Us..hopefully it'll stay there. I just couldn't stay away from this one, as much as I wanted to. Frankly, I'm very surprised that this line has stayed where it is even after Clemson RB Andre Ellington was ruled out of this game. Ellington basically IS the Clemson offense. In recent weeks, if he doesn't run for long TD's either at RB or on a return, Clemson doesn't score. To wit: He didn't do anything last week at BC. They lost. The week before that, Clemson scored 3 Tds. He scored all 3. 2 on long runs, and 1 on a 10 yard reception after his punt return set up Clemson in the red zone. The week before that he returned a kickoff for a score and a punt to the red zone to set up another score (which he scored) against Maryland. Two weeks before that, he scored all 3 of their TDs against Miami, including a 71 yarder. Also, Clemson is now 4-4, and my guy Dabo is hearing it from the unsatisfied Clemson faithful. If they struggle, expect to hear the boos, and NC State, though not great, has the balance on both sides of the ball to give them trouble. They're 6-2 by the way.
5. Baylor +8 1/2 @Oklahoma St: These two teams are completely indistinguishable from each other on paper. Oklahoma is slightly better on defense, but Baylor is a bit more explosive on offense. I also lean to Art Briles in the coaching matchup here. Baylor in almost every game has put up 600 yards or better, and we are all still waiting for Oklahoma St to be exposed. They haven't been great at home, having snuck past A&M and Troy while losing to Nebraska. Baylor is in dangerous territory since they just won their game of the decade against Texas, but I think they stay hungry and put up a good fight against the Pokes. With teams so similar and with similar rewards to play for 8.5 is a lot of points, even if the score gets up there.
6. Akron +13 1/2 @Ball State: Do I really recommend betting on a team that is 0-9 and coming off back to back shutouts? If they are getting two TDs from Ball State, yep. Akron is still looking for it's first W of the season, which if history is any guide, will almost certainly come. What better candidate than Ball State, a team that has already lost at home to Liberty and the putrid Eastern Michigan Eagles? You're also getting 13.5 here so even if you get mostly pasted, you will still have a great shot at a cover. An outright is definitely possible, unless BSU all of a sudden sacks up and takes care of business. (Snicker)
7 Nebraska -17 @Iowa St: I think Nebraska is going to completely destroy Iowa St in this one. The Huskers still remember Iowa St coming into their house and beating them 9-7 in what had to be one of the worst performances of the decade for the Nebraska offense. Iowa St has given up 50+ to Oklahoma and 68 to Utah in recent weeks, so Nebraska will likely see a lot of success with Taylor Martinez and company. Also, Iowa St has very little chance of doing much with the Nebraska defense, which has completely shut down most of the passing games they ave come across. I can see a 45-7 game here, very easily.
8. LSU + 6 1/2 v Alabama: Can LSU win this game? I have a hard time thinking they can, but that's my bias against Less Miles talking. Alabama has been struggling to find an identity on offense lately, and I think they will have a hard time getting points on the board in this game. LSU matches up much better against Alabama's offense than they do against an offense like Auburn's. They can stop the straight ahead running game of Ingram and Richardson, and Patrick Peterson can lock up Julio Jones. The question is whether LSU can score on Bama, and they've gotten lucky before. I just think that almost a full TD is too much here for the Tigers, and CBS's midday game usually results in a close score.
9. @Texas A&M +3 v Oklahoma: I've always wondered why Mike Sherman never got another pro job after he left the Packers. The guy was the head coach and I believe GM or a successful NFL team that was in the playoffs just about every year, and for all intents and purposes, the Packers were considered a well run organization at the time. Now he coaches A&M, and I think his offense has really taken off now that he has found the right Qb for his offense. Ryan Taneyhill was installed as the starter after some nice looking work in relief of turnover machine Jerod Johnson vs Kansas. Since then, A&M is putting up monster numbers. Oklahoma, on the other hand, has played twice on the road, and was outgained by it's foes both times. For the season, OU is ranked 50th in ypp on defense, and is 98th in rush offense. They've looked lethargic in their road games, and I think if Taneyhill plays aggressively, they can win this game.
10. Texas -3 1/2 @Kansas St: If you look at Texas during this slide, they have outgained all of their opponents, including Baylor last week and Oklahoma a couple weeks before. Texas matches up very well with Kansas St, since the Wildcats pretty much are relegated to running the ball. Texas stops the run for the most part, and I think K State is a bit out of their element. Texas wil probably be happy to be away from Austin as well.
11. Oregon St -5 @UCLA: The death march continues for this UCLA team . Oregon St, on the other hand, hits it's stride at this time of year every year. Their defensive stats are skewed a bit, as they've gotten some parts back from injury. UCLA simply can't score or throw the bal at all. Oregon St will get theirs since the line and offense appear to be settling in. I like the Beavers big in this one.
12. Arizona St +5 1/2 @ USC: This line looks like a misprint, but i like the situation for ASU. USC just had their SuperBowl, and they now enter their thrird consecutive home game. What, at this point, is there to get excited about for anyone in that program? That you can go 9-4?? Arizona St is certainly not an exciting opponent, but they have been a pretty good team this year with success on both sides of the ball. Take away their blowout loss to schitzophrenic Cal,(Aside......speaking of Cal, I don't think I've ever seen a team have such a bipolar personality based on whether they are at home or on the road. If anyone remembers the Tom and Jerry episode where Jerry mistakenly drinks the mothballs/acid combination that turns him into a seething growling beast who rips Tom's arms off, then immediately wears off and turns him back into a meek, tiny little mouse, that's home and road Cal. So losing to home Cal appears to just be a fact of life at this point) and they've lost by a FG at Oregon State, a single point at Wisconsin, and beat Washington handily when Washington was healthy. Also keep in mind that they are ranked 37th in yards per play on offense, while USC is 100th on defense, and you can see why the spread sits where it does. The public is 77% on USC, but I don't think they are taking into consideration the mammoth situational advantage enjoyed by ASU here.
Others: Don't look now, but the Illini can reach bowl eligibility with a win at Michigan, which would be their thrird in a row over Dickrod. hell, they still have a game with minnesota too, so they might get themselves to a Jan 1 bowl if they can find ways to beat Northwestern at Wrigley and Fresno at Fresno. Who knows. This will be an emotional hedge for me, as getting a third win in a row and further embarrassment for Dickrod is probably too much to ask. Michigan is laying only 3 at home.....I'll be fading the home run hire Turner Gill until he figures out a way to get within double digits of anyone. Colorado is laying 8 against them in lawrence this week. Can you believe that? Dan Hawkins, who will almost certainly be finally fired as soon as the final gun goes off, is bette than a TD favorite on the road against these guys.....Utah is getting 5 at home. I know that TCU is an 800 pound gorilla with a chainsaw for a penis, but you have to take Utah in that role....Wake looked so bad last week that there is no way I can resist laying 3 with BC at Wake. Would never recommend it as a musing, though. as BC should not be favored on the road....Is this the week WAZZOU gets a win? If not, they might cover because they are getting 14 against "puny Jerry" CaL, who will be without QB Kevin Riley.
That's it for this week. Keep on fading, bros!!!!
Friday, October 29, 2010
Week 9 Musings
Believe it or not, and I think by now you can all for damn sure believe it, I went 2-11 last week. 45-57-3 now, after having a shot to get back to the positive coming into the week. Ugh. Obviously things got off to a comical start when Northwestern blew their cover in painful fashion, and when I say painful, I mean put your nuts in a vice painful. I never thought I'd see a worse beat than last years Indiana/Iowa debacle, but there it was again. I think everyone knows what happened in that game to make it a loss...I won't rehash it.
I will say this though: This was another week where the musings didn't get any breaks. In any given week, if you have a bunch of games that are coming down within a score of the spread, you expect to split them. Well, I don't expect to split them, but the average gambler should. 2 of the 13 were no brainer wins (the only 2 I won, Cal and UAB), there were 2 that pretty much were blowoput losses (Miami(Oh) courtesy of 5 first half turnovers, and North Carolina) Here are the where the other games stood down the stretch, just for fun:
Northwestern: I'm up 10, getting 6 with 13 minutes left in the game. If I'm on the favorite there, I've given up on the cover. Ends up being a loser.
Indiana: Down 29-13 after 3 getting 14.. 2 pick 6 scores against in this one. Still, with IU, great shot at a backdoor. Doesn't happen, and they lose by 30 despite outgaining Illinois by 100 yards.
Baylor: Up 47-28(laying 5.5) with 10 minutes left. Horrific series of events leads to backdoor. I said in the musing, "...I can see a 57-320 type yardage advantage here." It ended up being 683-407. Baylor was able to have a QB throw for 400+ and a RB run for 250+. Normally, when that happens, you'd expect to win by 30, let alone more than 5. That one was a joke.
LSU: Getting 6, tied at 17 with 5 minutes left. In 90% of cases like this, the game ends up being decided by a FG. Not here. 70 yard TD run. 24-17. Loss. LSU got outgained by 200+, but you assumed that would happen going in, and they'd still figure out a way to have it come down to the wire. it did, but we lost getting 6 anyway.
Iowa: After blowing a chance to go up by 10 by yakking all over themselves after a rare turnover, they can get a push if a very good defense can avoid giving up a TD in crunch time at home. No dice.
Vandy: Tied 7-7 after 3 getting +12 1/2. South Carolina gets a 72 yard TD pass with 6 minutes left to make it 21-7 after TD earlier in the period. Front door cover. It happens. I'm still waiting for one though.
Oklahoma: Lead 21-20 after 3. Is it unreasonable to think that the #1 team might put away a pretender in the 4th quarter and win by more than a FG? Certainly not. Especially if I had been on the pretender. Missouri puts together a 4th quarter unlike any in their history and takes down the Sooners.
Georgia Tech: They play to about 10% of their capacity, allow Ellington to run wild, yet still are a garbage TD away from a cover the entire 4th quarter. 4 drives in Clemson territory end with zero points. Loss.
I'm telling all of you this stuff just to make clear my reasons for telling you to fade these picks. I have a cosmic ability to channel the breaks to one side. So we need to take advantage. I realize that in a lot of cases, you'll be betting on what appears to be the "wrong side", and in many cases it turns out to be. But cashing the ticket is all that matters, baby! Plus, sometimes I make stupid picks. Might as well take advantage of that too. By the way, the turnover tally for these sad sacks was 29-15 against, and 6-1 against on Defensive/ST TDs.
Another thing: I listen to XM radio during the week when I'm driving. One of the shows I listen to is a show based in Alabama that takes calls from fans throughout the South. These people are obsessed with Boise State. I think that many of them will go on postal service type rampages if Boise ever gets into the MNC game. their argument is that Boise doesn't deserve to play in the MNC game because they play a weak schedule. They'd never make it in the SEC, etc. First, don;t give me the "SEC" argument because if they were in the SEC, Chris Peterson would have SEC players. It's apples and oranges. Second, let's play along here. Give Boise Alabama's schedule this year, which most observers contend is the toughest SEC slate this year(no Kentucky, Vandy out of the East). What would Boise do against it? Let's take a look.
San Jose St: Already did that (at SJSU though) 48-0 W
Penn St: W
@Duke W
@Arkansas: Tossup. Just like it was for Alabama.
Florida: This year? W
@South Carolina: Tossup. Depends on what Stephen garcia shows up. Just like for Alabama
Ole Miss: W
@Tennessee W
@LSU: Tossup. But the coaching matchup would be so severe, I'd have to lean Boise. Just like I'd lean to Alabama.
Mississippi St: W
Georgia St(????) W
Auburn: On the Blue turf? Lean Boise, just like I would lean to Bama at home.
Boise also got a lot of flack because they didn't completely destroy La Tech on tuesday night. They won 49-20. If Alabama had played la tech at home on tuesday night, what would the score have been? 38-7? Probably. ok.
My point is this: Yeah, a 1 loss Alabama team should probably go to the MNC game over an undefeated Boise. But you can't tell me that it's a cut and dried case and Boise is a totally inferior team to most of the SEC. If Boise was in the SEC this year, they'd probably lose 1 or 2 games. Just like Alabama.
On to this week.
1. Syracuse +10 1/2 @Cincinnati: Looking at the individual units of these teams, I can't really find any edge for one team over the other, except in a couple spots I can see an edge for the Cuse. Whatever Cincy does well on offense, Syracuse handles it on defense. Cincy also is not at all overpowering on defense, which eases some pressure on a weak but improving Syracuse offense. it's kind of an uneven situation for the Orange, since they are coming off the big win over WV and Cincy lost a home game last week, but sometimes momentum has a way of continuing in a turn-around type season. This line just came up after being off the board for awhile due to Zach Collaros's uncertain status, but I think it'll settle in at 10+ when he's cleared to play. I'd actually like Syracuse outright if he doesn't play. The Cuse actually has a big advantage on the DL/OL matchup and Cincy has been a turfadenover machine this year. It'll be tough for them to cover a DD spread at this juncture.
3. @Boston College +7 v Clemson: I've been fading Clemfadeson with no success the last couple weeks, but these assholes deserve it. They still can't do anything on offense other than hand it to Andre Ellington and hop he runs for a TD. Clemson couldn't throw the ball to save their lives against Maryland, and they weren't much better against GT last week. Right now, off of two comfortable(though they shouldn't have been) victories at home and a 2-5 BC team in front of them, they are fat and happy. They also have Nc State and FSU coming up the next two weeks, so it will take a good coaching job to avoid a letdown/lookahead situation. Enter Dabo Swinney. BC on the other hand is off a frustrating home loss to Maryland. They've struggled offensively, but have looked better the past 2 weeks, including a road trip to Tallahassee where they moved the ball pretty well with a new QB. They stop the run very well, ranking 4th in the country, and it's not a fluke, as they've stopped some good rushing attacks(VT, ND, FSU). They've got Wake, Duke, Virginia and Syracuse left on their schedule, so if they grab this one, they can still salvage their season. I think Clemson will get their best shot, so the Tigers better be planning on doing somefadething more than rolling their helmets out there.
2. Purdue +17 @Illinois: Frankly, I can't believe that this spread is so high. It's totally inflated from the results of last week, when Purdue got obliterated by Ohio St and Illinois blew out Indiana, despite being outgained by 100 yards, only totaling 287 against one of the worst defenses in the country. Statistically, these two teams are actually pretty close. Purfadedue has been ok defensively, certainly much better than Indiana. They've already beaten Northwestern on the road, and certainly will conjure up a better performance in Champaign than they did in Columbus. On the other hand, Illinois is getting comfy with themselves, have a second home game against an underwhelming opponent in a row, and might sleepwalk a bit through this one. If Purdue gets a couple of early breaks, they could easily win this game outright. You have a mad team against a fat and happy team, who are pretty similar in performance so far, and the mad team is getting 17. 17!!! Granted, the Illini are better, but they are prone to boneheadedness and are not explosive on offense, giving them less margin for error. I'd recommend a $10 money line bet for the heck of it too.
4. San Diego St -10 @Wyoming: Generally you'd hate to lay 10 with a team that has had the recent succes of SDSU, but this year is a bit different. their two losses were a last second fluke 90 yard TD pass loss at Missouri by 3, and a 3 point loss to BYU in a game that is still being investigated by the Mountain West due to a terribly blown replay call. You'll probably hear more about that pretty soon, because there are credible accusations that BYU alums rigged that process in the game. It's messy. Anyway, they've been good. Wyoming is currently ranked 119th in yards per play on offense, as usual. they are also ranked 109th in yards per pfadelay against. Double whammy. They can't score, they can't stop anyone. They're a bunch of nice kids, but it doesn't look to me like they can hang with a team that has played well all year, and appears to be very well coached with good balance. They are ranked 15th on offense and 40th on D, so big mismatches on both sides of the ball. Save some wierd circumstances, SDSU should win this one comfortably.
5. @UCF -7 1/2 v East Carolina: I normally buy spreads like this down, and I would do it here also, though I have a suspicion that it won't be necessary. ECU has really lived a charmed life this year. They are scoring points by the bushel, but yet are only 46th in ypp, 60th in rushing yards per carry and 54th in pass efficiency. They scored 44 points at Southern Miss on 338 total yards and a bunch of fluke plays. The rest of their damage has been against the likes of Memphis(110th) and Tulsa (108th). By the way, they were outgained by that pathetic Memphis team. Defensively, ECCu hasn;t stopped anyone. They are 97th in 3rd downs against, 79th in total defense. On the other hand, UCF has a great defense and an improving offense. Defensively, they completely shut down Kansas St on the road and harassed Russell Wilson into the worst game of his career earlier this year. (10/30, 105 yards). Also, UCF is treating this as the biggest game thfadeey've played at home in several years, as ECU has knocked them out of the CUSA title 3 years in a row, and the teams are currently tied in the standings. Big home game for a jacked up team that will probably be able to dominate defensively and will be facing a soft defense.
6. @Marshall -2 1/2 v UTEP: Ugh. Another CUSA game here, I know. take a look at the records (Marshall 1-6 and UTEP 5-3) and you wonder why Marshall is favored. Well, take a closer look at UTEP's schedule. They were blown out by Houston, beat the New Mexico brotherhood of feebleness(NMSU and New Mexico) and Rice at home. In their last 2 games, they have been completely non-competitive with UAB on the road, and got dominated at home by Tulane (461-286 yardage advantage). Marshall has played Ohio St, West Virginia(had them beat), and in conference, Southern Miss, East Carolina and UCF who are probably the three best teams in CUSA at this point. UTEP looks to me to be a team that must be faded here, as their team appeared to give up last week. The same guys have been plfadeaying for what seems to be forever(QB Vittatoe has been there as long as I can remember. Things have gotten stale and it appears that Mike Price has lost them a little bit. Their previous long road trips east have been disastrous for them, much like the UAB trip was last year. They've also been hammered in recent years on trips to UCF, East Carolna and Buffalo. They don't travel well back to the east. We're only looking for Marshall to win here, and Huntington is a tough place to play.
7. Michigan St +7 @Iowa: The spread has now hit 7 at Bodog, so I am going to pull the trigger. I originally was expecting to play Iowa here, but the spread came out higher than I thought. I think the chances that Iowa gets frustrated and starts wondering about themselves after last week's debacle is more likely than a pissed off scorched earth type performance. Also, MfadeSU is solid in pretty much all phases, and has the world to play for. Iowa now has 2 losses, so their season is looking more and more like a garden variety Capital One Bowl year, rather than something special. These teams are evenly matched, I like Dantofadenio and MSU has been getting the breaks. If MSU won it outright, it wouldn't surprise me in the least, so I think it's prudent to take the TD.
8. @Ole Miss +7 v Auburn: Auburn has played two road games this year, @Miss St and @ Kentucky and both of them came down to the wire as 3 point wins for Auburn. Auburn's defadeense, while not as bad as some have painted it, is certainly not good. Last week, we all saw Jordan Jefferson have success against them in the zone read option, and if he can do that, you know that Masoli can certainly do it. Ole Miss has had some nice opffensive games when matched up against lacking defenses. I think they'll fade be ok here. Also, defensively they've been pretty good against the run, neither Ingram nor Richardson had success against them in Tuscaloosa) and if you can make Newton beat you in any other way than by his own runs, that's what you want to do. The "Houston Nutt upsets people when you least expect it" story has been greatly overplayed, but it has validity. Auburn hasn't won a road game by more than 7 since 2005.
9 Utah -7 @Air Force: This is a terribly public play, which I hate doing, but this one looks like a bad matchup for the Air Force. They have several guys injured, including Jared Tew, one of their better offensive players. They are now on a 2 game losing strak and have to deal with Utah coming off some great performances. The Utes have been running the ball down people's throats and stopping the run. That's bad news for the Falcons, since they're ranked 111th against the run. If this game was played earlier in the season when the falcons were healthy, they might have a good shot in this one, but not now.
10. Michigan -3 @Penn St: You know, if I'm wrong on this one, I'll actually gladly hand over my cash, because it will mean that the DICKROD out of control locomotive to hell is still on track. However, I don't see it. Penn State handled Minnesota last week, but they are just terrible on offense. Minnesota normally gives up 7.4 yards per play(!!), Penn fade State gained 6.3. Minny gives up 5.59 per rush, Penn State got 4.7. Minnesota is among the worst in the country in 3rd down confadeversions agaisnt, Penn St went 2 for 10. Bad matchups for Michigan are teams that have some explosion on offense and can trade scores with them, and Penn State is not that team. I also am skeptical that Penn State can have success against Denard Robinson, and if they don't, they'll have to put up 30 plus to win. I'd love to see PSU win this, but I doubt it will happen.
11. @USC +7 v Oregon: The line is fluctuating between 6.5 and 7, but you can get 7 at sportsbook and bodog right now as I write this. This is another hunch, but I think Oregon is going to have a very hard time getting stops against USC, as we all know USC will have trying to get the Ducks off the field. Oregon has only played one game on the road against a legitimate outfit, and that was at Arizona St. (Tennessee and Washington State were the others). In that game, their offense morphed from an unstofadeppable juggernaut to merely a good offense, gaining 405 total yards. Defensively, they gave up 597, and I think USC might have similar offensive success, or even better as they have much better offensive personnel than Arizona St has. It's hard to cover a TD spread when you can't stop the other team, and their offense is going to lose a few MPH moving from that fade carpet up north to the grass at the Coloseum. If USC can get rolling a bit on defense, I can see them having success that we wouldn't previously fathom, having gotten used to that Duck offense in Eugene. Oregon always looks great during the season, but they have yet to prove they can escape a season unscathed. I think they are going to lose at some point, adn there's no better time for it than here. USC in a prohibitive underdog role is wierd.
others: Leaning toward Baylor +7 at Texas, since the Horns just can't get anything going on offense, regardless of how bad the D is(See Iowa St for evidence).....Florida is a dog in the Cocktail Party, and Georgia is an oveerwhelming public favorite at -3. that doesn't seem right, though I see why based on Florida's horrific offensive performances lately. Meyer is off a bye week, though, and we're still talking about a Georgia team that everyone assumed was toast only 2 weeks ago. I'll be on Florida....Cal has the statistical edge in every conceivable offensive and defensive category, but I can't overlook the fact that Cal slides at this time of year every year, and Oregon St (-3) starts kicking ass every year at this time of the year. OSu has also owned Cal since Mike Riley came back, and Cal has loofadeked retarded on the road this year in most instances. Not a musing because OSU has a terrible defense, but I'd be very surprised if cal goes into Corvalis and wins. Also lean Kentucky(+6) at Mississippi St. that team is a bunch of scrappy fighters, and Miss St is nto great in the favorite role. Much better offense with Kentucky, but better defense with MSU. Just a hunch that Kentucky pulls off the outright, as MSU believe it or not is already bowl eligible, so a loss here doesn't really change their lot in life. Kentucky is only 4-4, so a win here definitely does with Vandy and Tennessee still left to on the schedulefade.
That's it for now...have a great fadeend.
I will say this though: This was another week where the musings didn't get any breaks. In any given week, if you have a bunch of games that are coming down within a score of the spread, you expect to split them. Well, I don't expect to split them, but the average gambler should. 2 of the 13 were no brainer wins (the only 2 I won, Cal and UAB), there were 2 that pretty much were blowoput losses (Miami(Oh) courtesy of 5 first half turnovers, and North Carolina) Here are the where the other games stood down the stretch, just for fun:
Northwestern: I'm up 10, getting 6 with 13 minutes left in the game. If I'm on the favorite there, I've given up on the cover. Ends up being a loser.
Indiana: Down 29-13 after 3 getting 14.. 2 pick 6 scores against in this one. Still, with IU, great shot at a backdoor. Doesn't happen, and they lose by 30 despite outgaining Illinois by 100 yards.
Baylor: Up 47-28(laying 5.5) with 10 minutes left. Horrific series of events leads to backdoor. I said in the musing, "...I can see a 57-320 type yardage advantage here." It ended up being 683-407. Baylor was able to have a QB throw for 400+ and a RB run for 250+. Normally, when that happens, you'd expect to win by 30, let alone more than 5. That one was a joke.
LSU: Getting 6, tied at 17 with 5 minutes left. In 90% of cases like this, the game ends up being decided by a FG. Not here. 70 yard TD run. 24-17. Loss. LSU got outgained by 200+, but you assumed that would happen going in, and they'd still figure out a way to have it come down to the wire. it did, but we lost getting 6 anyway.
Iowa: After blowing a chance to go up by 10 by yakking all over themselves after a rare turnover, they can get a push if a very good defense can avoid giving up a TD in crunch time at home. No dice.
Vandy: Tied 7-7 after 3 getting +12 1/2. South Carolina gets a 72 yard TD pass with 6 minutes left to make it 21-7 after TD earlier in the period. Front door cover. It happens. I'm still waiting for one though.
Oklahoma: Lead 21-20 after 3. Is it unreasonable to think that the #1 team might put away a pretender in the 4th quarter and win by more than a FG? Certainly not. Especially if I had been on the pretender. Missouri puts together a 4th quarter unlike any in their history and takes down the Sooners.
Georgia Tech: They play to about 10% of their capacity, allow Ellington to run wild, yet still are a garbage TD away from a cover the entire 4th quarter. 4 drives in Clemson territory end with zero points. Loss.
I'm telling all of you this stuff just to make clear my reasons for telling you to fade these picks. I have a cosmic ability to channel the breaks to one side. So we need to take advantage. I realize that in a lot of cases, you'll be betting on what appears to be the "wrong side", and in many cases it turns out to be. But cashing the ticket is all that matters, baby! Plus, sometimes I make stupid picks. Might as well take advantage of that too. By the way, the turnover tally for these sad sacks was 29-15 against, and 6-1 against on Defensive/ST TDs.
Another thing: I listen to XM radio during the week when I'm driving. One of the shows I listen to is a show based in Alabama that takes calls from fans throughout the South. These people are obsessed with Boise State. I think that many of them will go on postal service type rampages if Boise ever gets into the MNC game. their argument is that Boise doesn't deserve to play in the MNC game because they play a weak schedule. They'd never make it in the SEC, etc. First, don;t give me the "SEC" argument because if they were in the SEC, Chris Peterson would have SEC players. It's apples and oranges. Second, let's play along here. Give Boise Alabama's schedule this year, which most observers contend is the toughest SEC slate this year(no Kentucky, Vandy out of the East). What would Boise do against it? Let's take a look.
San Jose St: Already did that (at SJSU though) 48-0 W
Penn St: W
@Duke W
@Arkansas: Tossup. Just like it was for Alabama.
Florida: This year? W
@South Carolina: Tossup. Depends on what Stephen garcia shows up. Just like for Alabama
Ole Miss: W
@Tennessee W
@LSU: Tossup. But the coaching matchup would be so severe, I'd have to lean Boise. Just like I'd lean to Alabama.
Mississippi St: W
Georgia St(????) W
Auburn: On the Blue turf? Lean Boise, just like I would lean to Bama at home.
Boise also got a lot of flack because they didn't completely destroy La Tech on tuesday night. They won 49-20. If Alabama had played la tech at home on tuesday night, what would the score have been? 38-7? Probably. ok.
My point is this: Yeah, a 1 loss Alabama team should probably go to the MNC game over an undefeated Boise. But you can't tell me that it's a cut and dried case and Boise is a totally inferior team to most of the SEC. If Boise was in the SEC this year, they'd probably lose 1 or 2 games. Just like Alabama.
On to this week.
1. Syracuse +10 1/2 @Cincinnati: Looking at the individual units of these teams, I can't really find any edge for one team over the other, except in a couple spots I can see an edge for the Cuse. Whatever Cincy does well on offense, Syracuse handles it on defense. Cincy also is not at all overpowering on defense, which eases some pressure on a weak but improving Syracuse offense. it's kind of an uneven situation for the Orange, since they are coming off the big win over WV and Cincy lost a home game last week, but sometimes momentum has a way of continuing in a turn-around type season. This line just came up after being off the board for awhile due to Zach Collaros's uncertain status, but I think it'll settle in at 10+ when he's cleared to play. I'd actually like Syracuse outright if he doesn't play. The Cuse actually has a big advantage on the DL/OL matchup and Cincy has been a turfadenover machine this year. It'll be tough for them to cover a DD spread at this juncture.
3. @Boston College +7 v Clemson: I've been fading Clemfadeson with no success the last couple weeks, but these assholes deserve it. They still can't do anything on offense other than hand it to Andre Ellington and hop he runs for a TD. Clemson couldn't throw the ball to save their lives against Maryland, and they weren't much better against GT last week. Right now, off of two comfortable(though they shouldn't have been) victories at home and a 2-5 BC team in front of them, they are fat and happy. They also have Nc State and FSU coming up the next two weeks, so it will take a good coaching job to avoid a letdown/lookahead situation. Enter Dabo Swinney. BC on the other hand is off a frustrating home loss to Maryland. They've struggled offensively, but have looked better the past 2 weeks, including a road trip to Tallahassee where they moved the ball pretty well with a new QB. They stop the run very well, ranking 4th in the country, and it's not a fluke, as they've stopped some good rushing attacks(VT, ND, FSU). They've got Wake, Duke, Virginia and Syracuse left on their schedule, so if they grab this one, they can still salvage their season. I think Clemson will get their best shot, so the Tigers better be planning on doing somefadething more than rolling their helmets out there.
2. Purdue +17 @Illinois: Frankly, I can't believe that this spread is so high. It's totally inflated from the results of last week, when Purdue got obliterated by Ohio St and Illinois blew out Indiana, despite being outgained by 100 yards, only totaling 287 against one of the worst defenses in the country. Statistically, these two teams are actually pretty close. Purfadedue has been ok defensively, certainly much better than Indiana. They've already beaten Northwestern on the road, and certainly will conjure up a better performance in Champaign than they did in Columbus. On the other hand, Illinois is getting comfy with themselves, have a second home game against an underwhelming opponent in a row, and might sleepwalk a bit through this one. If Purdue gets a couple of early breaks, they could easily win this game outright. You have a mad team against a fat and happy team, who are pretty similar in performance so far, and the mad team is getting 17. 17!!! Granted, the Illini are better, but they are prone to boneheadedness and are not explosive on offense, giving them less margin for error. I'd recommend a $10 money line bet for the heck of it too.
4. San Diego St -10 @Wyoming: Generally you'd hate to lay 10 with a team that has had the recent succes of SDSU, but this year is a bit different. their two losses were a last second fluke 90 yard TD pass loss at Missouri by 3, and a 3 point loss to BYU in a game that is still being investigated by the Mountain West due to a terribly blown replay call. You'll probably hear more about that pretty soon, because there are credible accusations that BYU alums rigged that process in the game. It's messy. Anyway, they've been good. Wyoming is currently ranked 119th in yards per play on offense, as usual. they are also ranked 109th in yards per pfadelay against. Double whammy. They can't score, they can't stop anyone. They're a bunch of nice kids, but it doesn't look to me like they can hang with a team that has played well all year, and appears to be very well coached with good balance. They are ranked 15th on offense and 40th on D, so big mismatches on both sides of the ball. Save some wierd circumstances, SDSU should win this one comfortably.
5. @UCF -7 1/2 v East Carolina: I normally buy spreads like this down, and I would do it here also, though I have a suspicion that it won't be necessary. ECU has really lived a charmed life this year. They are scoring points by the bushel, but yet are only 46th in ypp, 60th in rushing yards per carry and 54th in pass efficiency. They scored 44 points at Southern Miss on 338 total yards and a bunch of fluke plays. The rest of their damage has been against the likes of Memphis(110th) and Tulsa (108th). By the way, they were outgained by that pathetic Memphis team. Defensively, ECCu hasn;t stopped anyone. They are 97th in 3rd downs against, 79th in total defense. On the other hand, UCF has a great defense and an improving offense. Defensively, they completely shut down Kansas St on the road and harassed Russell Wilson into the worst game of his career earlier this year. (10/30, 105 yards). Also, UCF is treating this as the biggest game thfadeey've played at home in several years, as ECU has knocked them out of the CUSA title 3 years in a row, and the teams are currently tied in the standings. Big home game for a jacked up team that will probably be able to dominate defensively and will be facing a soft defense.
6. @Marshall -2 1/2 v UTEP: Ugh. Another CUSA game here, I know. take a look at the records (Marshall 1-6 and UTEP 5-3) and you wonder why Marshall is favored. Well, take a closer look at UTEP's schedule. They were blown out by Houston, beat the New Mexico brotherhood of feebleness(NMSU and New Mexico) and Rice at home. In their last 2 games, they have been completely non-competitive with UAB on the road, and got dominated at home by Tulane (461-286 yardage advantage). Marshall has played Ohio St, West Virginia(had them beat), and in conference, Southern Miss, East Carolina and UCF who are probably the three best teams in CUSA at this point. UTEP looks to me to be a team that must be faded here, as their team appeared to give up last week. The same guys have been plfadeaying for what seems to be forever(QB Vittatoe has been there as long as I can remember. Things have gotten stale and it appears that Mike Price has lost them a little bit. Their previous long road trips east have been disastrous for them, much like the UAB trip was last year. They've also been hammered in recent years on trips to UCF, East Carolna and Buffalo. They don't travel well back to the east. We're only looking for Marshall to win here, and Huntington is a tough place to play.
7. Michigan St +7 @Iowa: The spread has now hit 7 at Bodog, so I am going to pull the trigger. I originally was expecting to play Iowa here, but the spread came out higher than I thought. I think the chances that Iowa gets frustrated and starts wondering about themselves after last week's debacle is more likely than a pissed off scorched earth type performance. Also, MfadeSU is solid in pretty much all phases, and has the world to play for. Iowa now has 2 losses, so their season is looking more and more like a garden variety Capital One Bowl year, rather than something special. These teams are evenly matched, I like Dantofadenio and MSU has been getting the breaks. If MSU won it outright, it wouldn't surprise me in the least, so I think it's prudent to take the TD.
8. @Ole Miss +7 v Auburn: Auburn has played two road games this year, @Miss St and @ Kentucky and both of them came down to the wire as 3 point wins for Auburn. Auburn's defadeense, while not as bad as some have painted it, is certainly not good. Last week, we all saw Jordan Jefferson have success against them in the zone read option, and if he can do that, you know that Masoli can certainly do it. Ole Miss has had some nice opffensive games when matched up against lacking defenses. I think they'll fade be ok here. Also, defensively they've been pretty good against the run, neither Ingram nor Richardson had success against them in Tuscaloosa) and if you can make Newton beat you in any other way than by his own runs, that's what you want to do. The "Houston Nutt upsets people when you least expect it" story has been greatly overplayed, but it has validity. Auburn hasn't won a road game by more than 7 since 2005.
9 Utah -7 @Air Force: This is a terribly public play, which I hate doing, but this one looks like a bad matchup for the Air Force. They have several guys injured, including Jared Tew, one of their better offensive players. They are now on a 2 game losing strak and have to deal with Utah coming off some great performances. The Utes have been running the ball down people's throats and stopping the run. That's bad news for the Falcons, since they're ranked 111th against the run. If this game was played earlier in the season when the falcons were healthy, they might have a good shot in this one, but not now.
10. Michigan -3 @Penn St: You know, if I'm wrong on this one, I'll actually gladly hand over my cash, because it will mean that the DICKROD out of control locomotive to hell is still on track. However, I don't see it. Penn State handled Minnesota last week, but they are just terrible on offense. Minnesota normally gives up 7.4 yards per play(!!), Penn fade State gained 6.3. Minny gives up 5.59 per rush, Penn State got 4.7. Minnesota is among the worst in the country in 3rd down confadeversions agaisnt, Penn St went 2 for 10. Bad matchups for Michigan are teams that have some explosion on offense and can trade scores with them, and Penn State is not that team. I also am skeptical that Penn State can have success against Denard Robinson, and if they don't, they'll have to put up 30 plus to win. I'd love to see PSU win this, but I doubt it will happen.
11. @USC +7 v Oregon: The line is fluctuating between 6.5 and 7, but you can get 7 at sportsbook and bodog right now as I write this. This is another hunch, but I think Oregon is going to have a very hard time getting stops against USC, as we all know USC will have trying to get the Ducks off the field. Oregon has only played one game on the road against a legitimate outfit, and that was at Arizona St. (Tennessee and Washington State were the others). In that game, their offense morphed from an unstofadeppable juggernaut to merely a good offense, gaining 405 total yards. Defensively, they gave up 597, and I think USC might have similar offensive success, or even better as they have much better offensive personnel than Arizona St has. It's hard to cover a TD spread when you can't stop the other team, and their offense is going to lose a few MPH moving from that fade carpet up north to the grass at the Coloseum. If USC can get rolling a bit on defense, I can see them having success that we wouldn't previously fathom, having gotten used to that Duck offense in Eugene. Oregon always looks great during the season, but they have yet to prove they can escape a season unscathed. I think they are going to lose at some point, adn there's no better time for it than here. USC in a prohibitive underdog role is wierd.
others: Leaning toward Baylor +7 at Texas, since the Horns just can't get anything going on offense, regardless of how bad the D is(See Iowa St for evidence).....Florida is a dog in the Cocktail Party, and Georgia is an oveerwhelming public favorite at -3. that doesn't seem right, though I see why based on Florida's horrific offensive performances lately. Meyer is off a bye week, though, and we're still talking about a Georgia team that everyone assumed was toast only 2 weeks ago. I'll be on Florida....Cal has the statistical edge in every conceivable offensive and defensive category, but I can't overlook the fact that Cal slides at this time of year every year, and Oregon St (-3) starts kicking ass every year at this time of the year. OSu has also owned Cal since Mike Riley came back, and Cal has loofadeked retarded on the road this year in most instances. Not a musing because OSU has a terrible defense, but I'd be very surprised if cal goes into Corvalis and wins. Also lean Kentucky(+6) at Mississippi St. that team is a bunch of scrappy fighters, and Miss St is nto great in the favorite role. Much better offense with Kentucky, but better defense with MSU. Just a hunch that Kentucky pulls off the outright, as MSU believe it or not is already bowl eligible, so a loss here doesn't really change their lot in life. Kentucky is only 4-4, so a win here definitely does with Vandy and Tennessee still left to on the schedulefade.
That's it for now...have a great fadeend.
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