Boy, I was feeling good last week about this time. Coming off a nice 9-4 week, got the Thursday nighter for once, and a card of games on Saturday that I felt really good about. Then.....Boom goes the dynamite. We can sit around and rehash it, but it was another week of no breaks. One of these days, I'll be ON a team at +1 1/2 that has lost all momentum and is about to go to overtime on the road, yet gets a 45 yard TD pass with 10 seconds left and no timeouts to pull it out. Or I'll be on a team sneaks out a cover largely because they got a TD when one of their special teamers blasted into a guy trying fair catch a punt, then jumped on the ball when it bounced into the end zone. (ref ruled that the offender was blocked into the returner...replays call bullshit.) Eh, stop yer complainin" jackass!
I do have to recount the USC/Minny game, though. USC leads 32-14(should have been 35-14, but this idiot Kiffin continues his schitzo obsession with going for 2. Usc has the ball with about 2 minutes to go. They need one more first down to begin taking a knee. They get the first down. They don't take a knee. They handoff, the dude fumbles and Minnesota takes over. 4 plays later, with 9 seconds on the clock, naturally, they score a TD and the final is 32-21. No going for two there for Minny! Musings had 11 1/2. Better luck next week!
I had actually considered betting on Pitt last night, but after some closer inspection, decided not to make it a musing, or even an also ran. If you didn't catch the game, good for you, because if you had any rooting interest in Pitt, it was not a barrell of laughs. Everything they did was a failure. They couldn't really cover, couldn't run, certainly couldn't throw to save their lives..they basically chewed on a bag of dicks all night long. they loked like a MAC team speed wise. About the only thing they did right was catch the ball a couple times when Jacory Harris inevitably threw it to them. The only good thing that came out of that was the possibility that Miami will be overvalued in the coming weeks.
I'm sure it's too late for tonight for most of you, but I'm going to play TCU tonight. I've seen them murder too many undermanned teams early and often to not go for a ride on the Frog train tonight. Gary Patterson also supposedly has some issues with June Jones as well, and doesn't like to play on Fridays, because he feels like that's sacred ground for high schools in Texas. But Jones and ESPN pushed for Friday, prompting him to say, "They wanted a Friday night game, so we're going to give them a Friday night game." It's only a 30 minute drive from Ft Worth to SMU's campus, so not much of a HFA for SMU. Kyle Padron has also been underwhelming, while nobody has been able to TCU on the flip side. Looks like a 48-17 type game to me.
1. @Iowa -28 v Ball State: Iowa was a musing last week, so naturally they were victim to a blocked punt and a pick 6 within the first 5 minutes of the game. They got all kinds of shit luck last week, so they'll be looking to get back on track, and you probably couldn't come up with a better opponent for that than Nad State. Both of Ball State's Qbs are terrible. They've lost to Liberty. They're probably the worst team in the MAC, and this year, that's saying something. Iowa has Penn State on deck, but first things first, they will want to get the bad taste of their trip to Tucson out of their mouths, so they might have this one covered by halftime. A first half bet might not be a bad idea either.
2. Fla International +12 @Maryland: You'd really like to have more than 12 points whenever you're betting on a team that has been among the worst in D-1 since inception, but I think FIU has a very legit shot at the outright here. They've played 2 BCS teams so far, Rutgers and Texa A&M. They dominated Rutgers in Miami, holding them to 172 total yards. then they went to A&M and forced the Aggies to come back late and hold them off by 7. In that game, they harrassed Jerod Johnson, who some think is among the top 5 QBs in the country to 11-31 and 4 picks. They also sacked him 6 times. Now they face a Maryland team who's offense resembles a Three Stooges routine. Last week they gained a grand total of 217 yards, which included 2 fluke long passes(60 and 80 yards) where the DB fell down on one and the ball was tipped on the other.Take that 140 yards away on those 2 plays, and it leaves you with 77 total yards on 51 plays. Even if you take away (-40) yards on sacks, they still barely cracked 100 yards. Oh yeah, did I mention that Maryland gave up 8 sacks last week? FIU might actually have the edge at the line of scrimmage in this one. FIU's offense is as you would expect(bad), but they've been able to patch together some scores in the first 2 games against better competition than Maryland. I'll take the double digits here.
3. Virginia Tech -4 @Boston College: I think this is where VT starts to get some traction this year. Unfortunately for them, they lost All American in Ryan Williams, but fortunately for them, they have 2 capable guys to step in with Darren Evans and David Wilson. BC also has not shown any explosion on offense, and I think VT will settle in defensively while exploiting what appears to be a glaring lack of speed on their defense. BC's MO on offense is the run game with Montel Harris, but he only ran for 80yards on 29 carries against Kent St their last time out. I think VT wins this one comfortably.
4. NC State +8 @Georgia Tech: Over the years, these ACC teams have been for the most part interchangeable. As a result, playing dogs has been a solid idea, and a profitable one in the conference, especially when we're talking about anything more than a TD. Georgia Tech is coming off a nice road win over North Carolina, now they face NC State at home. In my opinion, these teams are pretty evenly matched. NC State will probably have some issues stopping the Ga tech option, but the Wreck has been anything but staunch on defense the past couple of years, and we all know how I feel about my guy Russell Wilson. (8-0 ratio so far this year by the way.) I would not be surprised in the least if NC State pulled this one out, so obviously, I think 8 points is a good play. You can get 8.5 in some spots.
5. @Texas -15 1/2 v UCLA: Although i'm not a big fan of Texas, especially their offense, I really can't see how UCLA gets anything at all going on offense in this game. They absolutely cannot throw the ball. At all. They grinded out a nice win against Houston last week, but mostly because they benefitted from Case Keenum and the backup QB being lost for the year with injuries. When that happens, your whole team's collective dobber goes limp, and you are apt to be steamrolled by a decent run game. UCLA's Jonathan Franklin is ok, but they have no shot of running the ball on Texas. If the Horns can figure out a way to get 24 points on the board, they'll have no trouble covering this one.
6. Alabama -7 @Arkansas: Don't get me wrong...I love Bobby Petrino and I love his offense. When most people look at this game, they focus on the matchup of Arkansas's offense agaisnt Alabama's defense and wonder if Ryan Mallett will be able to carve up the Tide's youn secondary. He might, although i doubt it, but in my opinion, the big question to ask if how in the hell Arkansas's defense will be able to stop this Alabama offense. I understand that Duke is pretty helpless on defense, but Alabama didn't even reach third down until late in the 3rd quarter last week. their running game is devastating, and Greg McElroy might be among the best Qbs in the nation if they ever needed him to be. At the end of the day, it's definitely possible that Mallett and Petrino figure out ways to score on bama, but I don't think they'll be able to keep them from scoring on them. It wouldn't surprise me if Bama is in the mid 40's in this one. I would definitely surprise me if Arkansas gets in the 30's even if they have a good amount of success.
7. @Colorado St +8 v Idaho: Listen, I was one of Idaho's biggest fans last year as they worked toward their first bowl probably ever, but are they ready to be a significant road favorite against a Mountain West team? I realize Colorado St has been putrid this year, but this will be their first home game of the year, and they have improved each week. Even though they lost at Miami(OH) last week, they actually had the better of the play. Their freshman QB is improving and now comes home to face an Idaho team coming off a decisive home win against UNLV. There is just a ton of value in this line for Colorado St. If the Vandals go on the road and take care of business, good for them, but I think it's much more likely that they find things tougher than they expect.
8. Nevada -4 @BYU: Holy shit, what a risky play this is. Nevada, as I've preached has been a gutless road team, especially against bully programs. However, the difference in play between these two teams this year is so wide, it can't be ignored. Offensively, BYU has been very bad, and the subsequent or previous results of the other teams on their schedule reflects that. They didn't set the world on fire at home against Washington in week 1, and we all saw what happened to them at home against Nebraska. Florida State completely shut BYU down, holding them to under 200 yards, but Oklahoma did whatever they wanted agaisnt them. Defensively, Nevada has enough to stop them, and I would dare say that the Wolfpack is a faster overall team than BYU. BYU also had tons of trouble with option tendencies against Air Force, and now they have a more potent rush offense to contend with in Nevada. As I mentioned, there's a ton of risk here based on Nevada's past, but looking at what has actually transpired onthe field, Nevada is the easy pick here. I would venture to say that I will be surprised if this game is close. Either Nevada is going to impose their will on BYU and run them off the field, or they won't show up. In that scenario, I'll take the on field advantage over the past history angle.
9. Oklahoma -14 v Cincinnati: This game is not being played at Nippert stadium on Cincy's campus, but actually Paul Brown Stadium. In my opinion, that is a big deal, because it will drastically diminish Cincy's HFA, if not completely negate it. Having watched Cincinnati's offense last week in Raleigh, I've concluded that their offense is not going to reach anything close to the heights they reached in years past under Kelly. Collaros is not the same guy because his line is awful. I heard that they were pissed at their performance last week, but Collaros couldn't even get a pass off. They can be spitting nails this week, but he'll probably be in the same position this week. Defensively, Cincy remains a weak outfit. As long as Oklahoma is mildly interested on offense, they should be able to get first downs at will. I understand the expectation of a Cincy bounceback, but even with a steely effort, I think they lose 44-10.
10. Georgia +2 @Mississippi St: I can't see MSU willing this game as a favorite. Maybe if they were dogged, but no way as a favorite. This, by the way, might be Mark Richt's last chance. They lose this one, and he might be gone. Georgia is also bringing back several guys who have been out, so that added boost will probably make a difference. I just can't visualize georgia losing this one. If so, they'll be free fallin.
11. South Carolina +3 @Auburn: The question is whether Auburn can strap it up two weeks in a row after a brutal game with Clemson last week. Clemson came in there and traded haymakers with them for 4 quarters, and now they have to get up yet again for another team that is probably a tad better than Clemson. Auburn's defense remains a bit leaky, as opposed to South Carolina, whose defense is well coached and can stop the run. Although Auburn's pass offense has been good statistically, the jury is still out on whether Cam Newton can throw enough to be successful. Although I am not a fan of Stephen Garcia, his weapons are significantly superior to Auburn's, and So Car has a better defense. I'll take the points.
12. West Virginia +10 @LSU: Oh, the humanity!!!!!!!! What happens to the world when these two brainiacs get together for a game? I would probably pay upwards of several thousands of dollars to be included in the pregame pleasantries between these two. Will it end up with Less and Bill sitting Indian style at midfield with coloring books and crayons? Will it resemble a conversation found at an assisted living facility? Will there be any multi-syllable words uttered? Will the conversation graduate past the color of the grass? The possibilities are endless. As for the game, LSU shouldn't be favored by this much over a team that can play some defense, and WV defin itely can. Also, they'll be jacked up with a chip on their shoulder as if they're taking on an SEC heavywieght, which LSU is not. LSu has been stout on defense as well, but WV has enough weapons to make some plays...Vandy and Miss St the past 2 weeks may have lulled them into a false sense of confidence after the UNC torching. I think WV can win this game, so I'll certainly take the 10.
13 @UTEP -11 1/2 v Memphis: Although they won last week at home against MTSU, they were outgained by a Sun Belt team without their QB. Now they go all the way out to El Paso to face a very good offensive team in UTEP, who will probably get their star RB Donald Buckram back. Memphis at this point has to be an auto fade against any team that can score, especially on the road, and UTEP will suffice here. UTEP will probably be in the high 30's at least, and expecting Memphis to be successful in this environment with a true freshman QB taking the snaps(too bad Cannon Smith was benched) is unreasonable.
Others: I kind of like Central Florida catching 7.5 at Kansas St. K State is brutally one dimensional and UCF can stop the run. They also have an interesting QB in Jeff Godfrey who might be able to make some things happen. I would generally like more than 7 here, but I'll be on it nonetheless....Northwestern is in danger of an upset this week if they don't play better on pass defense. Both Rice and Vandy moved the ball on them significantly, and now they face Central Michigan, who has looked very good through the air so far this year. We also must note the Cats' struggles as a home favorite. However, only 6.5 for CMU is not enough, given that Persa and company have looked great on the offensive side of the ball. It might be a nail biter for the Cats, though......Purdue keeps losing guys, and they couldn't run away from Ball St last week, so I'd think they'll struggle again this week against a better MAC team in Toledo(+11). Marve is still the QB, by the way, and their reliance on him increases by the week. Bad. ...I'll be on Army when they catch 6 at Duke. Although Duke can throw it around, they can't stop a soul on defense, and Army has been pretty good on offense this year. Tough to cover as a favorite when you keep getting scored on....ND is really only a couple plays away from being undefeated, and now they are getting 5 at home against a Stanford team that couldnot have possibly looked better so far this year. They are due for a correction, although I love Harbaugh. I can see ND winning this one, so I'll certainly take the 5. ND is seldom a home dog. That's it for this week. Let's see if we can turn it around!!!!
Saturday, September 25, 2010
Friday, September 17, 2010
Week 3 Musings
It's always nice to get off to a good start on the Thursday night game. Let me just say that you can count me as a fan of the howling wolf call that NC State plays after every conceivable positive play. I've never noticed it before, but I love it. Have they always had that? If only I knew of any old friends that lived in Raleigh who might know......
Last week was positive, and much needed. 9-4 for the week, which moves the musings to 12-10-1 for the year. Not much better than a coin flip, but at least it's not like last year when I was immediately behind the 8 ball after some boneheaded capping in week 2 and week 3. I do have to say this however: My pick of Florida State +7 @Oklahoma last week had to be one of the most ill advised that I've ever vomited forth. It was the ultimate sucker bet, and it claimed several other buffoons who actually get paid to talk about this stuff. Truthfully, I had major second thoughts about that bet throughout Friday night and Saturday. As I told Mike(who made the trip down to the Land of the Lost last weekend), the kicker for me was when I heard Matt Millen say on the radio that FSU was his favorite upset pick of the week. In a nutshell, what we ended up having was an Oklahoma team laying less than a TD against a team with 13 freshman regulars and a rookie coach in his first road game. The team also was only 1 competent game against Samford removed from a defense that gave up 450+ yards 7 times last year. I was afraid that OU was sandbagging the previous week, and I suspect they were, unless of course Utah State is a top 10 caliber team. The game was never close. So that was a bad pick. The rest of the week wasn't bad, although another lowlight was another foray with USC as a 20+ point favorite. You mean to tell me that these fairies have to sweat out home games with Virginia now? I don't think there's a team in D-1 that I would trust USC to cover DD against.
3. USC -11 1/2 @ Minnesota: Well, there is at least one. I realize that USC has looked putrid in both weeks, but how in the wide wide world of sports can they not put the wood to Minnesota? USC has made a collective career on beating up on slow Big Ten teams, and you've got the poster child right here. Since Eric Decker has left the Gophers, Adam Weber has been mostly worthless. The Gophers have no pass game at all, and defensively they gave up gobs of yards to both South Dakota, or whoever the hell it was that the played last week as well as MTSU, who was playing a freshman who had never seen a college field in his life. USC should have no problem keeping them in check on offense, and Minny has long been a sieve defensively. If USC can't handle the Gophers, they need to fire Kiffin, because for his act to be tolerable, he has to win big.
4. @Georgia -2 1/2 v Arkansas: I think everyone is aware of my affinity for Arkansas and specifically, for HC Bobby Petrino and his offense. However, I think this is a bad spot for them. They have been a poor road team over the past couple of years, and now they have to wbasically win outright against a traditionally solid program coming off a debilitating loss. Looking at the motivation angle, while Arkansas would love to steal this game on the road, Georgia HAS to have this game. If they lose, they have a 1-2 record and are likely done in the SEC East. The Razorbacks will get the Dawgs best effort. Last year in Fayetteville, Joe Cox, Mr Pedestrian himself, threw for 375 yards, and Georgia's running backs ran wild, which I think has a strong chance of happening again. Truthfully, Arky might also be in a bit of a look ahead, as they have Bama on deck. Not enough D in my opinion, either.
5. @West Virginia -10 v Maryland: WV had a tough go last week against Marshall, having to score TD's on their last 2 possessions and pretty much the last play of the game to force OT, then pulled it out from there after Marshall puked on themselves in their possession. Had Bill Stewart lost that game, it would have been a sad day for the musings, because he probably would have been shot on the spot by some musket carrying toothless mountain man wearing a coonskin cap and buckskins. Now they come back home to face a Maryland team that has lived a charmed life so far. It's been well documented how badly Maryland was dominated by Navy, yet lucked their way into a victory there. They have absolutely no passing game, and WV has always been able to stop the run. It appears that WV QB Geno Smith figured some things out in the second half against Marshall, and they still have Noel Devine running around. I think Maryland's good fortune ends here this week, as two scores doesn't seem to be a difficult number for WV to cover at home.
6. UCONN -6 @Temple: This is somewhat of a risky play because UCONN has played Temple close in recent meetings, but I think we are seeing a lot of value here. UCONN had a terrible game against Michigan, but it appears, sadly, that Denard Robinson and company are for real, and they just had all sorts of things go wrong in that game. Temple is coming off back to back wins, but they were outplayed in both games by first Villanova and then a starting over Central Michigan team, both at home. UCONN's defense is a good one, and their offensive line is very good. Any play on temple here would be based on the fact that they've been able to stay close in the past mostly as a result of smoke and mirrors, and not on any review of the matchups. UCONN also has already lost, and has designs on a special season, so I think they will come out motivated to take it to Temple. I can see a 24-6 type game here if UCONN can avoid turnovers.
7. Vanderbilt +13 @Ole Miss: At this point, I'm annoyed with both of these teams. Ole Miss cost me a musing last week by failing to blow out a pitiful Tulane team, even going so far as to get outplayed and outgained by them badly in the second half. Although vandy wasn't a musing, they were playing LSU, so I had a vested insterest. I really don't think Vandy could have possibly played worse. Penalties, dropped balls, bonehead mistakes, and they were still sitting there in the third quarter only down 10-3. The roof caved in after that when they fumbled consecutive kickoff returns, but the point is that they were competing with LSU despite playing as poorly as they can. The week prior to that, Vandy put up 423 yards on a Northwestern defense that most assumed was going to be pretty decent, so the possibility of competent play is there. At this point, it's not outlandish to suggest that Ole Miss, even with Masoli, should not be laying a big number to anyone. They looked terrible against Tulane, and might actually be happy with themselves with the less than threatening notion of the 'Dores coming to town. However, I think Vandy will play much better than they did last week, and in their last 18 SEC games in which they have been a road dog, they're 14-3-1 ATS, and 6-0 in their last 6. The last time they went to Oxford they were a 7 point dog to a much better Ole Miss team and won outright. I think there's value here as long as they don't stomp all over their schlongs again.
8 @SMU -23 v Washington St: I think it might be a good idea to continue to fade Wazzou until they can prove that they can even stay in a game past the 1st quarter, especially on the road. With 8 minutes left in the 3rd quarter in week 1, they were already down 51-10 to Okie St. You can actually make a case that SMU's offense under June Jones is better than OSU's, and SMU's defense has been pretty solid as well, completely shutting down UAB last week and hanging with Texas Tech the week before that. I won't even look up the last time WSU did anything but induce uoproarious laughter among the visiting crowds in their road games. They are just a joke of a program right now. I can't say that there is any value in this line relative to most situations, but at this point, is there a line high enough for WAZZOU to cover??
9. @Wisconsin -13 1/2 v Arizona St: Wisconsin is coming off a lackluster performance against San Jose St, winning only 27-13 as a 39 point favorite. How can they cover 2 TDs against Arizona St you ask? Let me explain. The Badgers are as dominant a straight ahead running game as there is in college football in my opinion. John Clay runs over people, they have 5 experienced sides of beef on the OL, and they know they fucked around last week. Now they get a chance at some sort of satisfaction against the perfect foil...a west coast team who isn't very good, but conveniently comes in with a name and a shiny 2-0 record. ASU has been a coward program over the past few years...able to beat up on the patsies, but handed their heads against the big boys. As a road dog over the past 4 years, they are 2-6-1 ATS, and we've seen what happens when these west coast teams come east for an early game. They're also a mouthy bunch, which certainly won't endear them to anyone in Madison. One other thing....they've opened with Portland St and Northern Arizona. Tough competition. After having some trouble with Portland St on defense, one of the DLinemen said that they struggled at times because they had a tough camp and they were a little tired. So Portland St's offense makes you tired? And this guy is going to go up against Wisconsin's running game?
10. @Washington +3 1/2 v Nebraska: Honestly, I am not sold on Nebraska. They are ranked #8 in the country, and that's great for them, but I'm not sure what they've proven to get that spot. The ended last year great, but the biggest reason for that, Mr Suh, is busy crying about getting screwed out of a win in Chicago last week. They are starting a freshman QB, and are going on the road for the first time this year. It appears they have a stout running game with Roy Helu and Rex Burkhead(great name0, but there is no evidence that they can throw the ball with any success. Defensively, they are supposed to be stout, but they've given up lots of yards in both of their warm up games against Idaho(not a terrible thing) and Western kentucky(a terrible thing). Now they face a Washington team that has plenty of offensive weapons and a competent defense and have already worked up a lather against much tougher competition(BYU and a much better Syracuse team). Throw in the fact that this gives Steve Sarkisian another shot at a program building win, and I think Nebraska is walking into a tough situation here. The public is also ALL OVER Nebraska here. Gimme the points with the home dog.
11. @Florida St -10 1/2 v BYU: Unfortunately, this line has jumped a full point over the past day or so, but I still like the Noles here. Even though they played awful last week, as we all should have seen coming, they'll be looking for a bounce back performance in front of their home crowd in this one. BYU might be pissed off about getting their heads handed to them last year in Provo, but when you are beaten that soundly, there's a reason for it, and you probably don't match up well. FSU is probably a little better than last year, and there's no doubt that this BYU team is mere shadow of what they've been over the past few years. Long road trip for BYU...I just can't see them being competitive in this game.
12. Hawaii +12 1/2 @Colorado: For some reason this line keeps moving up. You can actually get 13 at some spots, but none of mine, so I'll go with 12 1/2. I actually bet this already at 10 1/2 earlier in the week, so I'll probably be doubling up. Colorado is coming off an ass kicking of mythic proportions against Cal. Generally you would assume that they would summon up their gumption and administer a beat down the next week. However, that scenario assumes that the team is any good. Colorado is not. It's like when the fat kid comes in last in a sprint against a bunch of track athletes. He might be mad about it, but he's still a fat slob, so he'll come in last next week too. Colorado didn't even look all that great in their game against Colorado St, who just got exposed further last week in Reno. I guess there could be some concern that Hawaii is facing their second road game on the mainland in a row, and now they have to deal with altitude. Whatever. Colorado is limited offensively, and I don't think their defense is much to write home about either. Hawaii has proven two weeks in a row that they can play, and getting double digits against a borderline bad Colorado team has loads of value.
13.Navy -3 @ Louisiana Tech: Another ridiculously public play, but La Tech is not nearly as tough as they've been in recent years. New coaching staff, new system, and a bunch of players that don't really fit it. La Tech needs to run to be successful and Navy held a better La Tech team to only 17 yards rushing last year. All Navy has to do is win this game, and I don't see them falling short, especially after they already slipped up once in the Maryland debacle.
14 @Texas Tech +3 v Texas: I've had my eye on this one for weeks. In my opinion, Texas is a fraud, a pretender who has nobody on their team capable of making plays when the band is playing. They are forced to move to a more power running game because they don't have a QB who can run like McCoy and Vince Young did in previous years. They simply don't have any dynamic running backs or a good enough offensive line to pull it off. Also, for some reason, there aren't any dynamic receivers on the roster who can consistently perform either. Now they play on the road at Texas Tech, who has all kinds of returning talent on both sides of the ball. Also, as much as I dislike Tommy Tuberville, they guy can fashion a defense, and he knows how to knock off highly ranked teams. I'd assume he'd be especially good at knocking off top ranked teams who are frauds. Last year, a younger Tech squad walked into Austin and about knocked off Texas last year, and I don't think the disparity between these teams is anywhere close to as wide as it was last year. Tech is a tough place to play, and I think the Horns are going to shit the bed.
15 Iowa +1 @Arizona: Now that Iowa is dogged in this game, I'm on it. These two played last year, and Iowa completely dominated them..Arizona couldn't move north/south and the hawkeyes just pretty much ran over them. I think there's a good chance of that again, and Iowa will be focused in this one because they know c=going in that this is among their toughest tests of what they hope will be a great season. Lots of returning weapons for Iowa, and AZ is missing a lot on defense. I also still can't get that unmerciful beatdown AZ took from Nebraska the last time they faced a physically imposing team. Huge coaching mismatch here as well.
Others: There are a TON of games I like this week A TON. Ball St is terrible. they go to Purdue this week and are only getting 16. I would normally jump all over that, but I'm only mildly interested because Ball St might be making a move to a better Qb, and Purdue's best WR is hurt. That means they'll be even more reliant on Robert Marve, so no musing, though I like them.....Everybody is counting out Ga tech as they travel to Chapel Hill this week catching 2 at UNC. However, they will be ready to play after that debacle at kansas last week, and UNC is still missing the majority of their defense. Do you think these freshmen are going to have an easy time against Tech's option? I don't either. They'll get Tech's best effort too. You don't want to play Paul Johnson when he's mad.....Tennessee by all accounts represented themselves well at times against Oregon, most media members will tell you. However, they were administered their worst loss IN NEYLAND STADIUM HISTORY. And they legitimately played well, given the talent on that team. Although Florida has looked putrid, I think the same type of thing could happen to UT again. They look pretty good, make some decent plays., then give up a couple Urban Meyer specials and lose 42-10. I'll be on Florida -14.......Duke has a nice little offense, but it won't be evident against Alabama.(-24). I also don't know if they have the ability to stop Bama even once on offense.....Colorado st has been terrible, but they are still a Mountain West team facing a MAC team in Miami(OH)(-8) who is still living off of their tussle with Florida. Too many points.......San Diego St has potentially their best team in 10 years and has some very solid coaches on their staff. They also have nice balance on offense. They go to Mizzou(-14) to face a Tiger team that can't be too excited to play them, and frankly I wasn't impressed with how they looked against the Illini. Some danger for them in trying to cover a 14 point spread. They'll have to be at their best to cover that number in my opinion...... If Case Keenum plays, Houston(-3) should run all over UCLA....That's it for now. Hope everyone has a good week.
Last week was positive, and much needed. 9-4 for the week, which moves the musings to 12-10-1 for the year. Not much better than a coin flip, but at least it's not like last year when I was immediately behind the 8 ball after some boneheaded capping in week 2 and week 3. I do have to say this however: My pick of Florida State +7 @Oklahoma last week had to be one of the most ill advised that I've ever vomited forth. It was the ultimate sucker bet, and it claimed several other buffoons who actually get paid to talk about this stuff. Truthfully, I had major second thoughts about that bet throughout Friday night and Saturday. As I told Mike(who made the trip down to the Land of the Lost last weekend), the kicker for me was when I heard Matt Millen say on the radio that FSU was his favorite upset pick of the week. In a nutshell, what we ended up having was an Oklahoma team laying less than a TD against a team with 13 freshman regulars and a rookie coach in his first road game. The team also was only 1 competent game against Samford removed from a defense that gave up 450+ yards 7 times last year. I was afraid that OU was sandbagging the previous week, and I suspect they were, unless of course Utah State is a top 10 caliber team. The game was never close. So that was a bad pick. The rest of the week wasn't bad, although another lowlight was another foray with USC as a 20+ point favorite. You mean to tell me that these fairies have to sweat out home games with Virginia now? I don't think there's a team in D-1 that I would trust USC to cover DD against.
3. USC -11 1/2 @ Minnesota: Well, there is at least one. I realize that USC has looked putrid in both weeks, but how in the wide wide world of sports can they not put the wood to Minnesota? USC has made a collective career on beating up on slow Big Ten teams, and you've got the poster child right here. Since Eric Decker has left the Gophers, Adam Weber has been mostly worthless. The Gophers have no pass game at all, and defensively they gave up gobs of yards to both South Dakota, or whoever the hell it was that the played last week as well as MTSU, who was playing a freshman who had never seen a college field in his life. USC should have no problem keeping them in check on offense, and Minny has long been a sieve defensively. If USC can't handle the Gophers, they need to fire Kiffin, because for his act to be tolerable, he has to win big.
4. @Georgia -2 1/2 v Arkansas: I think everyone is aware of my affinity for Arkansas and specifically, for HC Bobby Petrino and his offense. However, I think this is a bad spot for them. They have been a poor road team over the past couple of years, and now they have to wbasically win outright against a traditionally solid program coming off a debilitating loss. Looking at the motivation angle, while Arkansas would love to steal this game on the road, Georgia HAS to have this game. If they lose, they have a 1-2 record and are likely done in the SEC East. The Razorbacks will get the Dawgs best effort. Last year in Fayetteville, Joe Cox, Mr Pedestrian himself, threw for 375 yards, and Georgia's running backs ran wild, which I think has a strong chance of happening again. Truthfully, Arky might also be in a bit of a look ahead, as they have Bama on deck. Not enough D in my opinion, either.
5. @West Virginia -10 v Maryland: WV had a tough go last week against Marshall, having to score TD's on their last 2 possessions and pretty much the last play of the game to force OT, then pulled it out from there after Marshall puked on themselves in their possession. Had Bill Stewart lost that game, it would have been a sad day for the musings, because he probably would have been shot on the spot by some musket carrying toothless mountain man wearing a coonskin cap and buckskins. Now they come back home to face a Maryland team that has lived a charmed life so far. It's been well documented how badly Maryland was dominated by Navy, yet lucked their way into a victory there. They have absolutely no passing game, and WV has always been able to stop the run. It appears that WV QB Geno Smith figured some things out in the second half against Marshall, and they still have Noel Devine running around. I think Maryland's good fortune ends here this week, as two scores doesn't seem to be a difficult number for WV to cover at home.
6. UCONN -6 @Temple: This is somewhat of a risky play because UCONN has played Temple close in recent meetings, but I think we are seeing a lot of value here. UCONN had a terrible game against Michigan, but it appears, sadly, that Denard Robinson and company are for real, and they just had all sorts of things go wrong in that game. Temple is coming off back to back wins, but they were outplayed in both games by first Villanova and then a starting over Central Michigan team, both at home. UCONN's defense is a good one, and their offensive line is very good. Any play on temple here would be based on the fact that they've been able to stay close in the past mostly as a result of smoke and mirrors, and not on any review of the matchups. UCONN also has already lost, and has designs on a special season, so I think they will come out motivated to take it to Temple. I can see a 24-6 type game here if UCONN can avoid turnovers.
7. Vanderbilt +13 @Ole Miss: At this point, I'm annoyed with both of these teams. Ole Miss cost me a musing last week by failing to blow out a pitiful Tulane team, even going so far as to get outplayed and outgained by them badly in the second half. Although vandy wasn't a musing, they were playing LSU, so I had a vested insterest. I really don't think Vandy could have possibly played worse. Penalties, dropped balls, bonehead mistakes, and they were still sitting there in the third quarter only down 10-3. The roof caved in after that when they fumbled consecutive kickoff returns, but the point is that they were competing with LSU despite playing as poorly as they can. The week prior to that, Vandy put up 423 yards on a Northwestern defense that most assumed was going to be pretty decent, so the possibility of competent play is there. At this point, it's not outlandish to suggest that Ole Miss, even with Masoli, should not be laying a big number to anyone. They looked terrible against Tulane, and might actually be happy with themselves with the less than threatening notion of the 'Dores coming to town. However, I think Vandy will play much better than they did last week, and in their last 18 SEC games in which they have been a road dog, they're 14-3-1 ATS, and 6-0 in their last 6. The last time they went to Oxford they were a 7 point dog to a much better Ole Miss team and won outright. I think there's value here as long as they don't stomp all over their schlongs again.
8 @SMU -23 v Washington St: I think it might be a good idea to continue to fade Wazzou until they can prove that they can even stay in a game past the 1st quarter, especially on the road. With 8 minutes left in the 3rd quarter in week 1, they were already down 51-10 to Okie St. You can actually make a case that SMU's offense under June Jones is better than OSU's, and SMU's defense has been pretty solid as well, completely shutting down UAB last week and hanging with Texas Tech the week before that. I won't even look up the last time WSU did anything but induce uoproarious laughter among the visiting crowds in their road games. They are just a joke of a program right now. I can't say that there is any value in this line relative to most situations, but at this point, is there a line high enough for WAZZOU to cover??
9. @Wisconsin -13 1/2 v Arizona St: Wisconsin is coming off a lackluster performance against San Jose St, winning only 27-13 as a 39 point favorite. How can they cover 2 TDs against Arizona St you ask? Let me explain. The Badgers are as dominant a straight ahead running game as there is in college football in my opinion. John Clay runs over people, they have 5 experienced sides of beef on the OL, and they know they fucked around last week. Now they get a chance at some sort of satisfaction against the perfect foil...a west coast team who isn't very good, but conveniently comes in with a name and a shiny 2-0 record. ASU has been a coward program over the past few years...able to beat up on the patsies, but handed their heads against the big boys. As a road dog over the past 4 years, they are 2-6-1 ATS, and we've seen what happens when these west coast teams come east for an early game. They're also a mouthy bunch, which certainly won't endear them to anyone in Madison. One other thing....they've opened with Portland St and Northern Arizona. Tough competition. After having some trouble with Portland St on defense, one of the DLinemen said that they struggled at times because they had a tough camp and they were a little tired. So Portland St's offense makes you tired? And this guy is going to go up against Wisconsin's running game?
10. @Washington +3 1/2 v Nebraska: Honestly, I am not sold on Nebraska. They are ranked #8 in the country, and that's great for them, but I'm not sure what they've proven to get that spot. The ended last year great, but the biggest reason for that, Mr Suh, is busy crying about getting screwed out of a win in Chicago last week. They are starting a freshman QB, and are going on the road for the first time this year. It appears they have a stout running game with Roy Helu and Rex Burkhead(great name0, but there is no evidence that they can throw the ball with any success. Defensively, they are supposed to be stout, but they've given up lots of yards in both of their warm up games against Idaho(not a terrible thing) and Western kentucky(a terrible thing). Now they face a Washington team that has plenty of offensive weapons and a competent defense and have already worked up a lather against much tougher competition(BYU and a much better Syracuse team). Throw in the fact that this gives Steve Sarkisian another shot at a program building win, and I think Nebraska is walking into a tough situation here. The public is also ALL OVER Nebraska here. Gimme the points with the home dog.
11. @Florida St -10 1/2 v BYU: Unfortunately, this line has jumped a full point over the past day or so, but I still like the Noles here. Even though they played awful last week, as we all should have seen coming, they'll be looking for a bounce back performance in front of their home crowd in this one. BYU might be pissed off about getting their heads handed to them last year in Provo, but when you are beaten that soundly, there's a reason for it, and you probably don't match up well. FSU is probably a little better than last year, and there's no doubt that this BYU team is mere shadow of what they've been over the past few years. Long road trip for BYU...I just can't see them being competitive in this game.
12. Hawaii +12 1/2 @Colorado: For some reason this line keeps moving up. You can actually get 13 at some spots, but none of mine, so I'll go with 12 1/2. I actually bet this already at 10 1/2 earlier in the week, so I'll probably be doubling up. Colorado is coming off an ass kicking of mythic proportions against Cal. Generally you would assume that they would summon up their gumption and administer a beat down the next week. However, that scenario assumes that the team is any good. Colorado is not. It's like when the fat kid comes in last in a sprint against a bunch of track athletes. He might be mad about it, but he's still a fat slob, so he'll come in last next week too. Colorado didn't even look all that great in their game against Colorado St, who just got exposed further last week in Reno. I guess there could be some concern that Hawaii is facing their second road game on the mainland in a row, and now they have to deal with altitude. Whatever. Colorado is limited offensively, and I don't think their defense is much to write home about either. Hawaii has proven two weeks in a row that they can play, and getting double digits against a borderline bad Colorado team has loads of value.
13.Navy -3 @ Louisiana Tech: Another ridiculously public play, but La Tech is not nearly as tough as they've been in recent years. New coaching staff, new system, and a bunch of players that don't really fit it. La Tech needs to run to be successful and Navy held a better La Tech team to only 17 yards rushing last year. All Navy has to do is win this game, and I don't see them falling short, especially after they already slipped up once in the Maryland debacle.
14 @Texas Tech +3 v Texas: I've had my eye on this one for weeks. In my opinion, Texas is a fraud, a pretender who has nobody on their team capable of making plays when the band is playing. They are forced to move to a more power running game because they don't have a QB who can run like McCoy and Vince Young did in previous years. They simply don't have any dynamic running backs or a good enough offensive line to pull it off. Also, for some reason, there aren't any dynamic receivers on the roster who can consistently perform either. Now they play on the road at Texas Tech, who has all kinds of returning talent on both sides of the ball. Also, as much as I dislike Tommy Tuberville, they guy can fashion a defense, and he knows how to knock off highly ranked teams. I'd assume he'd be especially good at knocking off top ranked teams who are frauds. Last year, a younger Tech squad walked into Austin and about knocked off Texas last year, and I don't think the disparity between these teams is anywhere close to as wide as it was last year. Tech is a tough place to play, and I think the Horns are going to shit the bed.
15 Iowa +1 @Arizona: Now that Iowa is dogged in this game, I'm on it. These two played last year, and Iowa completely dominated them..Arizona couldn't move north/south and the hawkeyes just pretty much ran over them. I think there's a good chance of that again, and Iowa will be focused in this one because they know c=going in that this is among their toughest tests of what they hope will be a great season. Lots of returning weapons for Iowa, and AZ is missing a lot on defense. I also still can't get that unmerciful beatdown AZ took from Nebraska the last time they faced a physically imposing team. Huge coaching mismatch here as well.
Others: There are a TON of games I like this week A TON. Ball St is terrible. they go to Purdue this week and are only getting 16. I would normally jump all over that, but I'm only mildly interested because Ball St might be making a move to a better Qb, and Purdue's best WR is hurt. That means they'll be even more reliant on Robert Marve, so no musing, though I like them.....Everybody is counting out Ga tech as they travel to Chapel Hill this week catching 2 at UNC. However, they will be ready to play after that debacle at kansas last week, and UNC is still missing the majority of their defense. Do you think these freshmen are going to have an easy time against Tech's option? I don't either. They'll get Tech's best effort too. You don't want to play Paul Johnson when he's mad.....Tennessee by all accounts represented themselves well at times against Oregon, most media members will tell you. However, they were administered their worst loss IN NEYLAND STADIUM HISTORY. And they legitimately played well, given the talent on that team. Although Florida has looked putrid, I think the same type of thing could happen to UT again. They look pretty good, make some decent plays., then give up a couple Urban Meyer specials and lose 42-10. I'll be on Florida -14.......Duke has a nice little offense, but it won't be evident against Alabama.(-24). I also don't know if they have the ability to stop Bama even once on offense.....Colorado st has been terrible, but they are still a Mountain West team facing a MAC team in Miami(OH)(-8) who is still living off of their tussle with Florida. Too many points.......San Diego St has potentially their best team in 10 years and has some very solid coaches on their staff. They also have nice balance on offense. They go to Mizzou(-14) to face a Tiger team that can't be too excited to play them, and frankly I wasn't impressed with how they looked against the Illini. Some danger for them in trying to cover a 14 point spread. They'll have to be at their best to cover that number in my opinion...... If Case Keenum plays, Houston(-3) should run all over UCLA....That's it for now. Hope everyone has a good week.
Week 3 Weeknighters
Hello all...at first glance, week 3 appeared to pale in comparison to the slate from week 2 as far as number of cool, interesting games. However, looking closely, although there aren't any end all be all, top tier games this week, there are a lot of interesting second tier type games. We'll get into those during the full complement later.
1.(TONIGHT) @NC State -1 1/2 v Cincinnati: Any chance you get to take a home team on Thursday night, you try to take. In this case, we have Cincinnati traveling on a short week to Raleigh, which is not an easy place to play. Cincinnati is still in the midst of a transition to new coach Butch Jones, who will probably eventually get them settled in as an upper echelon Big East team. So far this year, however, it's been a pretty big dropoff from the performances these guys put up under Brian Kelly. In their first game at Fresno, they looked good for the first two possessions, then apparently decided to sign off for the night. They amassed a total of 235 yards against a Fresno defense that has traditionally resembled a pile of toothpicks, and doesn't appear to be much better this year. Defensively, even under Kelly they were extremely shaky against the pass..he just figured out ways to patch holes with masking tape and gum where necessary. Now they travel to NC State and need to win outright to cash a bet. NC State is coming off a win @Central Florida. UCF is going to probably win their division in CUSA. Despite playing terribly on offense, NC State managed a win in a tough environment on the road. My guy Russell Wilson had an awful game, completing only 10 for 30 and managing only 2+ yards per attempt. Obviously, he is much better than that and figures to bounce back with a much better game at home against a worse defense than he faced last week. Cincy QB Zach Collaros had some magic last year, but that magic might have left with Coach Kelly, as he was sacked 8 times against Fresno, and even a couple times last week by Indiana St. NC State brings pressure, so we might see more of the same. Coming off a nice road win, the fans should be jacked up tonight, and in that kind of atmosphere is just don't see Cincy being able to chalk up a W agaisnt an NC State team that is probably going to turn in an even better performance than they did last week.
2. (FRIDAY) Cal -2 1/2 @Nevada: At this point, the story on Nevada is pretty simple. 1.They kick the living shit out of weak teams who can't matchup up athletically with their running game and have weak offenses. 2. They shit the bed against physically superior teams that can throw the ball. Cal obviously qualifies for the second group. I realize this is a dangerous bet, since it's a hugely public play. Cal is coming off a demolition of Colorado at home and they have Arizona on deck next week. Also, there's always the fear that Nevada, with the two headed rushing monster of Kaepernick and Taua might finally sack up and take it to a competent squad, and they destroyed a somewhat legit program in Colorado St last week. However, to be able to win games like this, they are going to have to figure out a way to stop someone through the air, and they've not only been bad over the years, they've been helpless. 118th last year against the pass for example. The value is undoubtedly on Cal here, as Nevada has to win the game to cover. Until Nevada figures out a way to hang with the big boys, I have to fade them in situations like this. I'm sure they'll get big chunks of yards at times, as the effectiveness of that running game they have is undeniable, but in the end, they won't have enough to close out a win.
The other Friday night game is interesting as well, Southern Miss laying between 5 and 6 at home to Kansas. The urge in that game is to fade Kansas in their first road game with a new coach and new QB, but that spread has gotten a bit too high for my taste. Kansas looked much better in their second game against Ga Tech, and their defense actually has played well two weeks in a row. If they were going in there as any kind of a favorite, I'd be all over Southern Miss, since the atmosphere there figures to be wild on a national TV game in Hattiesburg. Unfortunately, Southern Miss hasn't given us enough evidence that they have enough offense to pull off a decisive win here, so I'm laying off. I'll have the full complement soon. Take care until then.
1.(TONIGHT) @NC State -1 1/2 v Cincinnati: Any chance you get to take a home team on Thursday night, you try to take. In this case, we have Cincinnati traveling on a short week to Raleigh, which is not an easy place to play. Cincinnati is still in the midst of a transition to new coach Butch Jones, who will probably eventually get them settled in as an upper echelon Big East team. So far this year, however, it's been a pretty big dropoff from the performances these guys put up under Brian Kelly. In their first game at Fresno, they looked good for the first two possessions, then apparently decided to sign off for the night. They amassed a total of 235 yards against a Fresno defense that has traditionally resembled a pile of toothpicks, and doesn't appear to be much better this year. Defensively, even under Kelly they were extremely shaky against the pass..he just figured out ways to patch holes with masking tape and gum where necessary. Now they travel to NC State and need to win outright to cash a bet. NC State is coming off a win @Central Florida. UCF is going to probably win their division in CUSA. Despite playing terribly on offense, NC State managed a win in a tough environment on the road. My guy Russell Wilson had an awful game, completing only 10 for 30 and managing only 2+ yards per attempt. Obviously, he is much better than that and figures to bounce back with a much better game at home against a worse defense than he faced last week. Cincy QB Zach Collaros had some magic last year, but that magic might have left with Coach Kelly, as he was sacked 8 times against Fresno, and even a couple times last week by Indiana St. NC State brings pressure, so we might see more of the same. Coming off a nice road win, the fans should be jacked up tonight, and in that kind of atmosphere is just don't see Cincy being able to chalk up a W agaisnt an NC State team that is probably going to turn in an even better performance than they did last week.
2. (FRIDAY) Cal -2 1/2 @Nevada: At this point, the story on Nevada is pretty simple. 1.They kick the living shit out of weak teams who can't matchup up athletically with their running game and have weak offenses. 2. They shit the bed against physically superior teams that can throw the ball. Cal obviously qualifies for the second group. I realize this is a dangerous bet, since it's a hugely public play. Cal is coming off a demolition of Colorado at home and they have Arizona on deck next week. Also, there's always the fear that Nevada, with the two headed rushing monster of Kaepernick and Taua might finally sack up and take it to a competent squad, and they destroyed a somewhat legit program in Colorado St last week. However, to be able to win games like this, they are going to have to figure out a way to stop someone through the air, and they've not only been bad over the years, they've been helpless. 118th last year against the pass for example. The value is undoubtedly on Cal here, as Nevada has to win the game to cover. Until Nevada figures out a way to hang with the big boys, I have to fade them in situations like this. I'm sure they'll get big chunks of yards at times, as the effectiveness of that running game they have is undeniable, but in the end, they won't have enough to close out a win.
The other Friday night game is interesting as well, Southern Miss laying between 5 and 6 at home to Kansas. The urge in that game is to fade Kansas in their first road game with a new coach and new QB, but that spread has gotten a bit too high for my taste. Kansas looked much better in their second game against Ga Tech, and their defense actually has played well two weeks in a row. If they were going in there as any kind of a favorite, I'd be all over Southern Miss, since the atmosphere there figures to be wild on a national TV game in Hattiesburg. Unfortunately, Southern Miss hasn't given us enough evidence that they have enough offense to pull off a decisive win here, so I'm laying off. I'll have the full complement soon. Take care until then.
Saturday, September 11, 2010
Week 2 Musings
During the weekend, as I buried my head in my hands while relaying the results of the numbered musings to my Dad, I did a self assessment. It's obvious that as the kids get older, and more things are going on at our house(#3 on the way, currently known as "girl") I have less time to do this stuff. Considering that I generally start off well, this past week's performance(3-6-1 thanks to Boise's comeback) is especially troubling, but I refuse to give up, because I like doing it too much. This week was definitely a remarkable one. Did you know that Florida had a grand total of 24 yards entering the fourth quarter last week? Let me first state for the record that I am absolutely considering that this game might have been fixed, but they ended up with 212, and 70+ of that came on a Jeff Demps long run in the last couple minutes. One of their other scores was an up for grabs tipped pass that was caught in the end zone. Having listened to a lot of that game, I can tell you that Florida was generally whipped on both sides of the line by Miami. Again...was Fat Tony involved? We'll see this week, I guess. Florida wasn't the only culprit. Texas got stuffed on 4 consecutive line plunges at the goal line by Rice. Yes, the same Rice team who was generally regarded as being among the 5 weakest defenses in the country last year. The same Rice who gave up an average of 50 pounds per man to Texas on the defensive line. Oklahoma was outgained by Utah State. USC got outgained by Hawaii, and that was in a game in which their offense was never stopped. North Texas outgained Clemson(another good pick for the musings). I could go on all night.
Speaking of Clemson, I think I've found a new meathead coach to pick on in Dabo Swinney. Dabo. Almost enough said right there. As an added bonus, not only does he appear to be a bit intellectually sluggish, but he's a selfish dickhead as well. Consider the following scenario: His QB Kyle Parker, who did a nice job as a redshirt freshman last year, was actually a draft eligible junior in baseball last year. He subsequently had a great year as an outfielder for Clemson last year and was drafted toward the end of the first round by the Rockies this past June. Parker, whether it's a smart move or not, told the Rockies that he'd like to play football this year. The Rockies offered him somewhere in the neighborhood of 2.5 Mill to give up football and start this year in the minors. He turned it down and ended up signing a deal for about half that if they let him play football. Now, if Dabo Swinney really had parker's interests at heart, he would explain to the kid that his best course of action to make the most money is to take the money and play baseball. At the very least, he should remain silent and let the kid make up his mind. What did Dabo do? He went on every talk show he could find and tried to justify that Parker's future is really in football. His exact workds were, "he has a chance to be draftable as a quarterback." Ok. So he has "a chance to be draftable" in a sport where he might have a 5 year career if he's lucky. Or he can go with the sport where he's already been a FIRST ROUND pick and offered 2.5 Million dollars, where he can have a career that could easily span 12-15 years and pays on the average 5 times as much as football. It's why Bo Jackson chose baseball despite being the #1 pick overall in the NFL. The only reason why Dabo is involved in this charade is because he has no other competent QB on his roster and Clemson fans would prefer to have a real coach patrolling the sideline. Everyone is looking for a reason to kick this buffoon to the curb, and he knows it. You hate to root for someone to get hurt, but if Parker gets hurt, that would be awesome karma.
Oh, one other thing: I was glad to see Utah beat Pitt for a lot of reasons, but espeecially when I realized that DE Jabaal Sheard, who is a really good player, ended up avoiding any kind of suspension after he almost killed a dude in a campus fight only about 5 weeks ago. I had assumed he was suspended indefinitely. I assumed wrong. Wanny apparently has even fewer scruples than I thought. Here's what the police officer who was present at the beatdown said about Sheard's antics. "Sheard refused to listen to my commands to stop fighting," the officer, Garret Brown wrote in an affidavit, "and continued to punch the victim, Edward Parker, in the face and to the body.
"At that time, Sheard then grabbed Parker by the clothing and threw him through the glass front door of the gallery.”
Brown went on to say that Sheard continued to punch him in the face while he was lying on the ground bleeding.
No suspension warranted there? Good for Wanny. I'd actually rather have it this way, because hating people is fun.
On to this week. I'm going to stay away from the Thursday game, though I really want to bet on Mississippi St. They looked great in week one, but they were so thoroughly dominated by Auburn last year with pretty much the same systems and the same personnel that I need more than a couple points to pluck down any hard earned cash on the Mulldogs. I would generally back WV on Friday night too, but I really need to avoid road favorites. An also ran on Friday however is UTEP +19 1/2 @Houston. Houston is a favorite because of the great offense, but UTEP has had their number lately, including a 58-41 win last year in El Paso. The problem for UTEP is that star RB Donald Buckram, who shredded Houston last year is questionable, but their backup is pretty good too. Houston will probably have a hard time stopping UTEP, and it's hard to cover a number when the other team keeps scoring. Just ask Tulsa.
On to the week...
1. @East Carolina -13 1/2 v Memphis: It's true that ECU brought back very little from their team last year, but I should have known not to lay points on the road with a bad defense like Tulsa's. I also didn't realize that Ruffin McNeil brought the OC from Texas Tech with him. As a result, their offense actually looked pretty good last week. On the other hand, Memphis did NOT look good, and that's an understatement. They got bulldozed by Mississippi St, and bulldozed is being kind. MSU racked up 569 yards on their defense. It usually takes them about 3 1/2 games to do that. Over the years, if you were going to name the worst and least explosive offenses in the country, the Bulldogs would be in the team picture. In the game last week, their scores were from 57, 55, 51, 27, 25, 20 and 1 yard, and the one yarder was immediately after an interception. Memphis looks like one of those teams that has to hit absolute rock bottom before they can go up, due to a dearth of talent left by the previous coach(think Coach Death Penalty himself, Lou Tepper, and what Ron Turner inherited at Illinois in 1997). They haven't hit rock bottom yet. I can't believe that they can be at all competitive on the road at this point. One cool thing about Memphis though...their Qb's name is Cannon Smith. Hard to be bad when you have a name like that, but judging by week one, he's been able to pull it off so far..
2. Hawaii +3 @Army: This is certainly the mother of all tough road trips, but from what I hear, the Rainbows have been on the East coast since Tuesday, so they'll be acclimated. I also don't like backing teams after very remarkable performances, but since they are actually dogged in this game, I have to take the points. Army has a woeful history as a favorite, which they share with Navy, and there is no doubt that the athletic edge is with Hawaii. Army also has nobody who can cover WR Greg Salas. Like I said, I wouldn't lay points with Hawaii here, but I'll take 'em. If Army beats Hawaii to go 2-0, my hat's off to them. Actually, I'd love to see it.
3. Eastern Michigan +16 1/2 @ Miami(OH): This is a classic case of a team being overvalued based on last week's performance. Although you have to give them credit for doing what they did to Florida, they should not be favored by 16 points over anyone. EMU does not look to be very strong this year, but they have enough on offense to put up some points. It's just an obscenely inflated line, and it must be played.
4. @Iowa -13 1/2 v Iowa St: I think this game has been a musing on the other side 3 or 4 years in a row. In my opinion, this is another line value play. Iowa St is a bit inflated because they beat what most consider to be a MAC title contender in NIU pretty handily last week. Also, this is a rivalry game, and one in which Iowa St has competed pretty well in recent years. I just don't see it this year however. If you line these teams up personnel wise, Iowa is vastly superior in all phases, even special teams. Iowa St is going to have issues running the ball, throwing the ball, you name it. People might not want to hear it, but Iowa is a legit threat to win the Big Ten, and as a result is a contender for the MNC game. Should Iowa St be getting less than 2 TDs against a team like that? Certainly not. On a neutral field I'd need 17 at least to consider betting Iowa St here, and they are only getting 13 1/2 in Iowa City. I'll take it.
5 @ Boston College -17 v Kent St: Big public play here, but these two teams matched up last year in Ohio and Kent only totalled 179 yards in a 34-7 BC win. At the time, BC played two QBs that were so bad they are no longer in the program, and they were in the middle of a complete transition with personnel on offense. They are much more settled this year. Now this year, BC is coming off a horseshit performance against Weber St in their opener, so they'll be looking to make amends, especially when they have cancer survivor Mark Herzlich back in the lineup screaming his head off. Kent has no offense whatsoever...I was expecting this line to be in the 25-26 range. BC has a nice offense back and their D should be improved. They should be a solid ACC squad this year, and I think they'll remind people of that coming off the poor performance.
6. @Cal -9 v Colorado: Colorado is coming off a nice performance over Colorado St in a game that usually results in a close final. However, that's no great shakes this year because CSU had NOBODY coming back and was playing a true freshman at QB. Now Colorado has to travel out to Berkeley and take on Cal. Even with the weak competition last week, Colorado only managed 307 total yards. They'll need a lot more than that to hang within DD against Cal here, as Cal returns just about everyone other than Jahvid Best on offense, and Shane Vereen is more than capable to step in, having averaged 5.2 per carry last year. Hell, his backup Covaugn Deboskie(another great name) averaged 6.8 per. I think if Cal played Colorado in Berkeley 10 times, they might hang within DD once or twice. It's likely a 34-13 type game.
7. @Ohio St -8 1/2 v Miami(FL): The public is all over the U in this one, but I'm not sold on that team. I still remember how many times that team folded last year when confronted with a somewhat uncomfortable situation...Virginia Tech, Wisconsin in the bowl etc. Also, if they are going to compete in this game, they will need to play a heck of a lot better on defense than they have in the recent past. Ohio St has struggled in the past against fast, physical defenses, but Miami is anything but that. If Terrelle Pryor is in his comfort zone, Miami is going to be in danger of giving up 30+ points, and I think OSU has the ability to harass Jacory Harris into a cocoon. This line has been falling, too.
8. Florida St +8 @Oklahoma: This line is also falling, and it's also a public favorite...oh well. I would generally look at this line and immediately think that there's a ton of value in such a short line for a game in Norman, but Oklahoma looked so bad in so many phases last week, that I think it will take everything they have just to win this game outright. I remain anything but a believer in Landry Jones. he completed only 47% of his throws last week against Utah St. It's true that FSU was horrific on defense last year, but they have a new scheme and a ton of talent on that team..they are going to be much better this year. Oklahoma had to give it to Demarco Murray 35 times last week to escape because they didn't have the confidence to throw it effectively on Utah St, and they had all kinds of problems with big plays on defense as well. They are stepping up big time in class. If they don't step up their game drastically, and turn in a performance similar to the USU game, they'll get beat handily. I'd feel more comfortable if this was on a neutral field though...Owen Field is a house of horrors for opponents.
9. @Alabama -12 v Penn St: How can a true freshman go into Bryant Denny Stadium in this spot and be anything other than a basket case? That's what's happening here, as Joe Pa is starting true frosh Robert Bolden. He might be worthy of the start, but I think it's more of an indictment of what Penn St has as an alternative than an endorsement of Bolden. We shall see, I guess. Alabama is replacing a lot, but they are still well coached and just about every guy on the two deep was a 5 star recruit. On offense, Bama is explosive, especially now that Trent Richardson is getting an additional 10 or so carries per game due to heisman winner Mark Ingram's injury. This is the classic SEC v Big Ten slow guys v fast guys at the fast guys stadium type game. I'd love to see Penn St go in there and impose their will, but I think it will more closely resemble when Virginia Tech went into Baton Rouge and got their clocks cleaned a couple years ago.
10. @Air Force pk v BYU: BYU has owned Air Force over the years, but I think this is the year that the Falcons finally take care of the Cougs. They are always sharp early in the season, and all of their guys are healthy. BYU won at home against Washington, but i don't think they were very impressive in doing so....this looks like a BYU team that Air Force can match up with a bit physically. The running backs for BYU are not outstanding, and I think Jake Heaps is going to continue to struggle completing passes as long as he keeps throwing such a heavy ball. They won't be able to live forever with Riley Nelson scampering around. Air Force has had problems with the vertical passing game in the past under the likes of John Beck and Max Hall, and if BYU can't bring that aspect, Air Force can stop a ground based attack. BYU is also young on defense. I like Air Force to win this one.
11. Ole Miss -21 @Tulane: Tulane, like Memphis, looks absolutely God-awful this year. Absolutely nobody back on offense and a defense that couldn't stop a soul either. Ole Miss will be hacked off based of their loss to Jaxy St last week, and will be looking for a reason to dish out some punishment. They'll find a great candidate inTulane. The Wave totaled only 252 yards against SE Louisiana, so it's likely that Ole Miss can shut them out. Tulane looks really, really bad.
12. NC State +3 1/2 @UCF: Central Florida has a chance to be pretty good this year, but this is asking a lot. NC State has some holes to fill in places, but they return Russell Wilson(do I need to profess my love for this guy again??) and all of their playmakers at receiver. It's a good offense. UCF is good on defense, and you would normally worry about the home field advantage, but the fans were booing the QB last week leading the coach (O'Leary!) to rip them all publicly. Might not be as much of HFA under those circumstances, and if the fans get their dobbers down, the momentum could shift quickly to the Pack.
13. USC -19 1/2 v Virginia: OK...this time I am almost sure I have found a team that USC can handle on defense. Virginia looked ok against Richmond, but they have absolutely no playmakers on offense and a terribly mistake prone QB in MarcVerica. they're in their second game in a new system and are traveling across the country to play a USC team that was embarrassed by it's terrible defensive play in week one. There's no way in my opinion that they don't bounce back under Monte Kiffin, and the offense figures to continue to roll along against an outmatched UVA squad. Kiffin will jump all over a chance to run it up here as well.
others: Michigan looked so good this past week that I have a hard time believing they can put together a game like that again. Also, I'm sure Brian Kelly was a keen observer of the film and has already formulated a plan. Even though they only gave up 10 points to UCONN, that was mostly because the Huskies continuously shot themselves in the foot..they still moved the ball pretty regularly on Michigan. Now Dick Rod has to get on the bus and do it again on the road, where his team has been helpless defensively for the most part. They have very little margin for error with such a short line. I lean to ND being the value side, especially if I can get -3......(it's at 3.5-4 now).......I also lean to South Carolina (at -3) at home against Georgia. SC looked good in their opener and they are getting back a couple other pieces that were suspended last week. On the contrary, Georgia will not be getting back AJ Green, which is a big loss for them. Also, this is another case of a freshman QB(redshirt) making his first road start. If georgia can't run the ball, they are going to be in trouble, and I think the jury is still out on that defense, which was among the worst they've ever had last year........Although the whole world was keenly aware that Ole Miss and the unlikable Houston Nutt shat the bed against Jacksonville St last week, there was nary a mention about Kansas and media darling Turner Gill managing all of 3 points against North Dakota, or North Dakota St or whoever they played. Now they face Ga Tech and are geting 13. It's a home game for them, so there's hope, ol Turner didn't set the world on fire in week one. If that option gets going, KU might get embarrassed....If Florida plays like they did against Miami, or even close to how they played against Miami, there's no way they'll cover 15 against USF. I tend to think last week was an aberration, but when you look at the personel that Florida has, you start to wonder where the production will come from. Having said that, Florida could put their helmets on backwards and crabwalk their way to 3 or 4 turnovers or botched punts or some other BS that would lead to 21 points, so I'm not going to test Urban meyer with a musing just yet. I'll be betting on USF though.....I am really down on LSU, and Vandy showed me a little in their game against Northwestern last week. LSU looks to me to be a team that is going to struggle to put anyone away, and if they get some bad breaks, it's not out of the question that Vandy's offense punches in a couple scores and makes Less Miles sweat a hole through his hat. I'll be taking the DD with Vandy (10)...That's it for now...take care!
Speaking of Clemson, I think I've found a new meathead coach to pick on in Dabo Swinney. Dabo. Almost enough said right there. As an added bonus, not only does he appear to be a bit intellectually sluggish, but he's a selfish dickhead as well. Consider the following scenario: His QB Kyle Parker, who did a nice job as a redshirt freshman last year, was actually a draft eligible junior in baseball last year. He subsequently had a great year as an outfielder for Clemson last year and was drafted toward the end of the first round by the Rockies this past June. Parker, whether it's a smart move or not, told the Rockies that he'd like to play football this year. The Rockies offered him somewhere in the neighborhood of 2.5 Mill to give up football and start this year in the minors. He turned it down and ended up signing a deal for about half that if they let him play football. Now, if Dabo Swinney really had parker's interests at heart, he would explain to the kid that his best course of action to make the most money is to take the money and play baseball. At the very least, he should remain silent and let the kid make up his mind. What did Dabo do? He went on every talk show he could find and tried to justify that Parker's future is really in football. His exact workds were, "he has a chance to be draftable as a quarterback." Ok. So he has "a chance to be draftable" in a sport where he might have a 5 year career if he's lucky. Or he can go with the sport where he's already been a FIRST ROUND pick and offered 2.5 Million dollars, where he can have a career that could easily span 12-15 years and pays on the average 5 times as much as football. It's why Bo Jackson chose baseball despite being the #1 pick overall in the NFL. The only reason why Dabo is involved in this charade is because he has no other competent QB on his roster and Clemson fans would prefer to have a real coach patrolling the sideline. Everyone is looking for a reason to kick this buffoon to the curb, and he knows it. You hate to root for someone to get hurt, but if Parker gets hurt, that would be awesome karma.
Oh, one other thing: I was glad to see Utah beat Pitt for a lot of reasons, but espeecially when I realized that DE Jabaal Sheard, who is a really good player, ended up avoiding any kind of suspension after he almost killed a dude in a campus fight only about 5 weeks ago. I had assumed he was suspended indefinitely. I assumed wrong. Wanny apparently has even fewer scruples than I thought. Here's what the police officer who was present at the beatdown said about Sheard's antics. "Sheard refused to listen to my commands to stop fighting," the officer, Garret Brown wrote in an affidavit, "and continued to punch the victim, Edward Parker, in the face and to the body.
"At that time, Sheard then grabbed Parker by the clothing and threw him through the glass front door of the gallery.”
Brown went on to say that Sheard continued to punch him in the face while he was lying on the ground bleeding.
No suspension warranted there? Good for Wanny. I'd actually rather have it this way, because hating people is fun.
On to this week. I'm going to stay away from the Thursday game, though I really want to bet on Mississippi St. They looked great in week one, but they were so thoroughly dominated by Auburn last year with pretty much the same systems and the same personnel that I need more than a couple points to pluck down any hard earned cash on the Mulldogs. I would generally back WV on Friday night too, but I really need to avoid road favorites. An also ran on Friday however is UTEP +19 1/2 @Houston. Houston is a favorite because of the great offense, but UTEP has had their number lately, including a 58-41 win last year in El Paso. The problem for UTEP is that star RB Donald Buckram, who shredded Houston last year is questionable, but their backup is pretty good too. Houston will probably have a hard time stopping UTEP, and it's hard to cover a number when the other team keeps scoring. Just ask Tulsa.
On to the week...
1. @East Carolina -13 1/2 v Memphis: It's true that ECU brought back very little from their team last year, but I should have known not to lay points on the road with a bad defense like Tulsa's. I also didn't realize that Ruffin McNeil brought the OC from Texas Tech with him. As a result, their offense actually looked pretty good last week. On the other hand, Memphis did NOT look good, and that's an understatement. They got bulldozed by Mississippi St, and bulldozed is being kind. MSU racked up 569 yards on their defense. It usually takes them about 3 1/2 games to do that. Over the years, if you were going to name the worst and least explosive offenses in the country, the Bulldogs would be in the team picture. In the game last week, their scores were from 57, 55, 51, 27, 25, 20 and 1 yard, and the one yarder was immediately after an interception. Memphis looks like one of those teams that has to hit absolute rock bottom before they can go up, due to a dearth of talent left by the previous coach(think Coach Death Penalty himself, Lou Tepper, and what Ron Turner inherited at Illinois in 1997). They haven't hit rock bottom yet. I can't believe that they can be at all competitive on the road at this point. One cool thing about Memphis though...their Qb's name is Cannon Smith. Hard to be bad when you have a name like that, but judging by week one, he's been able to pull it off so far..
2. Hawaii +3 @Army: This is certainly the mother of all tough road trips, but from what I hear, the Rainbows have been on the East coast since Tuesday, so they'll be acclimated. I also don't like backing teams after very remarkable performances, but since they are actually dogged in this game, I have to take the points. Army has a woeful history as a favorite, which they share with Navy, and there is no doubt that the athletic edge is with Hawaii. Army also has nobody who can cover WR Greg Salas. Like I said, I wouldn't lay points with Hawaii here, but I'll take 'em. If Army beats Hawaii to go 2-0, my hat's off to them. Actually, I'd love to see it.
3. Eastern Michigan +16 1/2 @ Miami(OH): This is a classic case of a team being overvalued based on last week's performance. Although you have to give them credit for doing what they did to Florida, they should not be favored by 16 points over anyone. EMU does not look to be very strong this year, but they have enough on offense to put up some points. It's just an obscenely inflated line, and it must be played.
4. @Iowa -13 1/2 v Iowa St: I think this game has been a musing on the other side 3 or 4 years in a row. In my opinion, this is another line value play. Iowa St is a bit inflated because they beat what most consider to be a MAC title contender in NIU pretty handily last week. Also, this is a rivalry game, and one in which Iowa St has competed pretty well in recent years. I just don't see it this year however. If you line these teams up personnel wise, Iowa is vastly superior in all phases, even special teams. Iowa St is going to have issues running the ball, throwing the ball, you name it. People might not want to hear it, but Iowa is a legit threat to win the Big Ten, and as a result is a contender for the MNC game. Should Iowa St be getting less than 2 TDs against a team like that? Certainly not. On a neutral field I'd need 17 at least to consider betting Iowa St here, and they are only getting 13 1/2 in Iowa City. I'll take it.
5 @ Boston College -17 v Kent St: Big public play here, but these two teams matched up last year in Ohio and Kent only totalled 179 yards in a 34-7 BC win. At the time, BC played two QBs that were so bad they are no longer in the program, and they were in the middle of a complete transition with personnel on offense. They are much more settled this year. Now this year, BC is coming off a horseshit performance against Weber St in their opener, so they'll be looking to make amends, especially when they have cancer survivor Mark Herzlich back in the lineup screaming his head off. Kent has no offense whatsoever...I was expecting this line to be in the 25-26 range. BC has a nice offense back and their D should be improved. They should be a solid ACC squad this year, and I think they'll remind people of that coming off the poor performance.
6. @Cal -9 v Colorado: Colorado is coming off a nice performance over Colorado St in a game that usually results in a close final. However, that's no great shakes this year because CSU had NOBODY coming back and was playing a true freshman at QB. Now Colorado has to travel out to Berkeley and take on Cal. Even with the weak competition last week, Colorado only managed 307 total yards. They'll need a lot more than that to hang within DD against Cal here, as Cal returns just about everyone other than Jahvid Best on offense, and Shane Vereen is more than capable to step in, having averaged 5.2 per carry last year. Hell, his backup Covaugn Deboskie(another great name) averaged 6.8 per. I think if Cal played Colorado in Berkeley 10 times, they might hang within DD once or twice. It's likely a 34-13 type game.
7. @Ohio St -8 1/2 v Miami(FL): The public is all over the U in this one, but I'm not sold on that team. I still remember how many times that team folded last year when confronted with a somewhat uncomfortable situation...Virginia Tech, Wisconsin in the bowl etc. Also, if they are going to compete in this game, they will need to play a heck of a lot better on defense than they have in the recent past. Ohio St has struggled in the past against fast, physical defenses, but Miami is anything but that. If Terrelle Pryor is in his comfort zone, Miami is going to be in danger of giving up 30+ points, and I think OSU has the ability to harass Jacory Harris into a cocoon. This line has been falling, too.
8. Florida St +8 @Oklahoma: This line is also falling, and it's also a public favorite...oh well. I would generally look at this line and immediately think that there's a ton of value in such a short line for a game in Norman, but Oklahoma looked so bad in so many phases last week, that I think it will take everything they have just to win this game outright. I remain anything but a believer in Landry Jones. he completed only 47% of his throws last week against Utah St. It's true that FSU was horrific on defense last year, but they have a new scheme and a ton of talent on that team..they are going to be much better this year. Oklahoma had to give it to Demarco Murray 35 times last week to escape because they didn't have the confidence to throw it effectively on Utah St, and they had all kinds of problems with big plays on defense as well. They are stepping up big time in class. If they don't step up their game drastically, and turn in a performance similar to the USU game, they'll get beat handily. I'd feel more comfortable if this was on a neutral field though...Owen Field is a house of horrors for opponents.
9. @Alabama -12 v Penn St: How can a true freshman go into Bryant Denny Stadium in this spot and be anything other than a basket case? That's what's happening here, as Joe Pa is starting true frosh Robert Bolden. He might be worthy of the start, but I think it's more of an indictment of what Penn St has as an alternative than an endorsement of Bolden. We shall see, I guess. Alabama is replacing a lot, but they are still well coached and just about every guy on the two deep was a 5 star recruit. On offense, Bama is explosive, especially now that Trent Richardson is getting an additional 10 or so carries per game due to heisman winner Mark Ingram's injury. This is the classic SEC v Big Ten slow guys v fast guys at the fast guys stadium type game. I'd love to see Penn St go in there and impose their will, but I think it will more closely resemble when Virginia Tech went into Baton Rouge and got their clocks cleaned a couple years ago.
10. @Air Force pk v BYU: BYU has owned Air Force over the years, but I think this is the year that the Falcons finally take care of the Cougs. They are always sharp early in the season, and all of their guys are healthy. BYU won at home against Washington, but i don't think they were very impressive in doing so....this looks like a BYU team that Air Force can match up with a bit physically. The running backs for BYU are not outstanding, and I think Jake Heaps is going to continue to struggle completing passes as long as he keeps throwing such a heavy ball. They won't be able to live forever with Riley Nelson scampering around. Air Force has had problems with the vertical passing game in the past under the likes of John Beck and Max Hall, and if BYU can't bring that aspect, Air Force can stop a ground based attack. BYU is also young on defense. I like Air Force to win this one.
11. Ole Miss -21 @Tulane: Tulane, like Memphis, looks absolutely God-awful this year. Absolutely nobody back on offense and a defense that couldn't stop a soul either. Ole Miss will be hacked off based of their loss to Jaxy St last week, and will be looking for a reason to dish out some punishment. They'll find a great candidate inTulane. The Wave totaled only 252 yards against SE Louisiana, so it's likely that Ole Miss can shut them out. Tulane looks really, really bad.
12. NC State +3 1/2 @UCF: Central Florida has a chance to be pretty good this year, but this is asking a lot. NC State has some holes to fill in places, but they return Russell Wilson(do I need to profess my love for this guy again??) and all of their playmakers at receiver. It's a good offense. UCF is good on defense, and you would normally worry about the home field advantage, but the fans were booing the QB last week leading the coach (O'Leary!) to rip them all publicly. Might not be as much of HFA under those circumstances, and if the fans get their dobbers down, the momentum could shift quickly to the Pack.
13. USC -19 1/2 v Virginia: OK...this time I am almost sure I have found a team that USC can handle on defense. Virginia looked ok against Richmond, but they have absolutely no playmakers on offense and a terribly mistake prone QB in MarcVerica. they're in their second game in a new system and are traveling across the country to play a USC team that was embarrassed by it's terrible defensive play in week one. There's no way in my opinion that they don't bounce back under Monte Kiffin, and the offense figures to continue to roll along against an outmatched UVA squad. Kiffin will jump all over a chance to run it up here as well.
others: Michigan looked so good this past week that I have a hard time believing they can put together a game like that again. Also, I'm sure Brian Kelly was a keen observer of the film and has already formulated a plan. Even though they only gave up 10 points to UCONN, that was mostly because the Huskies continuously shot themselves in the foot..they still moved the ball pretty regularly on Michigan. Now Dick Rod has to get on the bus and do it again on the road, where his team has been helpless defensively for the most part. They have very little margin for error with such a short line. I lean to ND being the value side, especially if I can get -3......(it's at 3.5-4 now).......I also lean to South Carolina (at -3) at home against Georgia. SC looked good in their opener and they are getting back a couple other pieces that were suspended last week. On the contrary, Georgia will not be getting back AJ Green, which is a big loss for them. Also, this is another case of a freshman QB(redshirt) making his first road start. If georgia can't run the ball, they are going to be in trouble, and I think the jury is still out on that defense, which was among the worst they've ever had last year........Although the whole world was keenly aware that Ole Miss and the unlikable Houston Nutt shat the bed against Jacksonville St last week, there was nary a mention about Kansas and media darling Turner Gill managing all of 3 points against North Dakota, or North Dakota St or whoever they played. Now they face Ga Tech and are geting 13. It's a home game for them, so there's hope, ol Turner didn't set the world on fire in week one. If that option gets going, KU might get embarrassed....If Florida plays like they did against Miami, or even close to how they played against Miami, there's no way they'll cover 15 against USF. I tend to think last week was an aberration, but when you look at the personel that Florida has, you start to wonder where the production will come from. Having said that, Florida could put their helmets on backwards and crabwalk their way to 3 or 4 turnovers or botched punts or some other BS that would lead to 21 points, so I'm not going to test Urban meyer with a musing just yet. I'll be betting on USF though.....I am really down on LSU, and Vandy showed me a little in their game against Northwestern last week. LSU looks to me to be a team that is going to struggle to put anyone away, and if they get some bad breaks, it's not out of the question that Vandy's offense punches in a couple scores and makes Less Miles sweat a hole through his hat. I'll be taking the DD with Vandy (10)...That's it for now...take care!
Saturday, September 4, 2010
Butch Davis clarification
I should point out some sarcasm from the week 1 musings regarding Butch Davis. I think I said that kids on his team were having grades changed, making it rain at strip clubs, etc. I was using exaggeration to make a point there. In case anyone gets a hold of this blog, which I doubt because nobody reads it, I should clarify that the inly indiscretions I am aware of are that a couple guys went to a party hosted by an agent in Miami, and there is some speculation that some players may have benefitted from a tutor doing classwork for them. I do think it's a dubious sign that the head coach had so little hold on the program that half of his team could be involved in shenanigans that would end up in them being in this position in one of the biggest games in school history. However, the transgressions are limited to what I've listed here.
Week 1 Musings
Ok....not a good start on So Miss. Utah should have won their game by double digits if not for turnovers and blocked punts, and USC....588 yards to Hawaii with a pedestrian QB and then an unknown backup. Should have saw that one coming I guess.
You can add Butch Davis to the Honorary Jackie Sherrill "We ain't molding Boy Scouts down here" list. First, he has professional swindler/"recruiting guru" John Blake on his staff, which raises eyebrows. Now it appears as though he has managed to positively influence almost nobody on his team. How much lack of control has to be evident when you actually have to ask for "rolling suspensions" in order to be able to field a team? Kudos to Butch...that's a stunning lack of ability to be policing his players. Every single guy on his team is running wild, having grades changed, making it rain in strip clubs, attending Chrystal parties in South Beach, etc. Way to go Butch!! At least you aren't trying to fool people into thinking you're actually making some semblance of an attempt at a clean football program. The end result of this UNC fiasco might end up being 16 guys get suspended v LSU, which is too bad because it would have been fun watching Less Miles trying to figure out a way to get anywhere on that defense. I liked UNC before, but it's an unbettable game now.
Also, the Big Ten made some news by announcing the new divisions to begin play next year. First of all, I'm not even going to get into the whole argument of whether expanding and moving to divisional play with a championship is a good idea, because that's an entirely different discussion. But in this case, given the circumstances, there was a logical way to align the divisions, and shockingly, it wasn't done correctly. Why am I never consulted on these things? Actually, based on Jim Delany's track record, and the fact that there are what I considered to be somewhat sane people in AD positions throughout the Big Ten, I was hopeful that it would not be botched. I was bitterly disappointed. In fact, there are so many things wrong with how they aligned the divisions, I don't have enough time or space to list them. I'll go with the obvious: First, the fact that Michigan and Ohio St were split up has caused way too much discussion. Michigan sucks so much donkey cock right now that even mentioning them as a possible contender in any Big Ten division is side splitting hilarity. But let's suspend logic for a minute and consider if they ever get good again. By splitting OSU and UM up but yet triumphantly announcing that they will continue to play the last week of the season, you are opening up the possibility of making irrelevant the very game you are trying to restore. What if both teams win their division? They'll play twice in a row and the game is rendered meaningless. What if both lock up their divisions the week prior? Should they even play the game? The Big Ten has gone out of it's way to completely destroy the game, not keep it relevant. (as an aside, I don't give a flying fuck about this game...just playing along.)
As for the alignment of the divisions, the Big Ten had two choices: Go by geography, or don't go by geography. They have several examples to look at for reference, but let's consider the three big conferences that currently employ divisions: The SEC, Big 12 and ACC. Two of them go by geography, one does not. The SEC has the East and the West, the Big 12 the North and the South. Everyone knows who is in what division. The rivalries are mostly geographical, and even the ones that aren't in the SEC's case, they set them up to play every year(LSU/Florida, Georgia/Auburn, Alabama/Tennessee). In the Big 12's case, it even has led to a weak division and a strong one. No matter, it works anyway. Now, let's look at the ACC. The do not use geography. They are the least respected conference. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY knows who is in what division in the ACC. I follow college football very close, and I have no idea. There are no strong rivalries in the ACC. ZERO.
So which model did the Big Ten follow? Naturally, the ACC. Why? Probably because there is some conception that the power in the Big Ten is concentrated in the eastern part of the footprint. First of all, any conception about where the programs stand right now is irrelevant, since teams go through peaks and valleys through time. Having said that, though, that conception is false, especially with the addition of Nebraska. The Big Ten should have been split up into the East and West with the split coming at the Indiana/ Illinois state line. East: Penn State, Michigan, Ohio St, Michigan St, Purdue, Indiana. West: Illinois, Northwestern, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska. Believe it or not, if you look at 10 year records and bowl appearances and compare the divisions, you could actually make a case that the West is stronger of you rank each program 1-6 and compare them. This would have been the right way to do it. Geographic rivalries are intact, and the ones that aren't (only Illinois/Indiana in my opinion, and who really gives a shit anyway) could play each other every year. Also, you still have the bus ride road trips, making it easier for fans to travel. With the logic devoid divisions they came up with, Wisconsin has neither Iowa nor Minnesota in their division, so they will go years without playing one of those two despite having good rivalries with them. The whole thing is a complete joke. I don't even want to talk about it anymore.
4. @Clemson -26 1/2 v North Texas: I kind of liked North Texas coming into lat year because they had the coach's son Riley Dodge, a highly ranked recruit, coming in to play QB. However, injuries have derailed his career, so it's back to normal schlub QBs who nobody else wanted for North Texas. Here are the scores of North Texas's non-conference games vs BCS opponents(and some non-BCS) since 2005: 54-2, 54-7, 56-3, 56-7, 79-10, 66-7, 45-6, 41-3, 77-20, 53-7. None of these come even close to covering 26.5. Here are Clemson's NC games against Sun Belt/MAC, etc type teams since '05: 37-7, 54-6, 51-0, 63-9, 49-26, 70-14, 37-14. Not many games in either of those bunches that were even remotely close. So the question must be, what is different about either of these team to expect a somewhat closer game? Clemson looks to be a pretty solid outfit this year, at least as good as they've been in recent years, as they have most of their defense, 4 starting OL and QB Kyle Parker back. North Texas looks like a middle of the pack Sun Belt team, though not quite as good as they looked to me last year. I'm really struggling to find a reason as to why this spread isn't in the 30's, so I'm pulling the trigger at 26.5.
5. @Florida -36 1/2 v Miami (OH): More is expected of Miami(OH) this year, but that's mostly because they were so terrible last year. Their offensive line is coming back pretty much intact, but it was undoubtedly the worst OL in the country last year, and 2 of the starters apparently just got injured late in fall camp. They were 119th in ypc last year and 119th in sacks allowed. That's a bad combination. It's a new era for Florida, so there will be a lot of excitement, and there will be a need to get some work in. New QB John Brantley appears to be the real deal, and I would not be surprised if he is one of the top 2 QBs in the SEC immediately. He only played in garbage time last year, but he threw 7TDs in 48 attempts, so he knows what he's doing. Florida will probably have that spread covered by half, and I see very little chance that it doesn't end up being a 56-7 type game. It might be worse than that if Urban shows a lack of decorum.
6. @Nebraska -37 1/2 v Western Kentucky: I hate to keep harping on these huge favorites, but Western Kentucky is probably going to be the worst team in D1 this year, and that might be the case on both sides of the ball. The chances are probably better than 75% that they get shut out, and Nebraska will almost certainly be in the 50's. It's a ton of points, but the value is on Nebraska here.
7. Tulsa -7 1/2 @ East Carolina: Skip Holtz left ECU for South Florida, and he's left the cupboard pretty bare, especially on defense, which has been ECU's calling card for the most part. Only 1 of ECU's top 8 tacklers return on defense and they will have to deal with a Tulsa offense which looks to be loaded again for Todd Graham, who I consider to be one of the better offensive minded coaches around. They return QB GJ Kinne as well as all their leading rushers and all but one of the guys who caught a pass for them last year, including their top 2. 4 of the 5 linemen are back...they look like a solid unit. On the other side of the ball, ECu has a new QB, all but one skill guy are gone, and their line is missing 3 starters. Throw in that they have to learn a whole new system under Ruffin McNeil, the former Texas Tech behemoth DC who the Red Raiders had no interest in promoting, and I think ECU might be in for a long day. I generally don't like backing these western teams from CUSA when they come east, but I think there's a big edge for Tulsa here. This game is on Sunday, by the way.
8. UCONN +3 @ Miss shit can: I just can't resist. This went under 3, so I was on the fence, but now that it's back to a field goal, I want a piece of Dick Rod. Last year, UCONN lost 5 games, but all of them were by 4 or less. I think I've been clear about what I think about randy Edsall, and it looks like this might be the best team he's had. The QB is back, one of their 2 1,000 yard rushers from last year is back along with 4 of the 5 starting linemen. Michigan looks to be bad again on defense, as they lost by far their best player off last year's terrible defensive unit. They'll probably be ok on offense, but again not explosive, and UCONN has plenty of defensive talent back. The pressure on Dick Rod is suffocating, and the players know that it will create an absolute firestorm if they lose. I think UCONN expects to come in and win, and with how snakebitten Michigan has been and will probably continue to be under Dick Rod, I think it's likely that they will.
9. Missouri -12 1/2 v Illinois: Although I think the Illini have made a major upgrade in coaching with their coordinators, and I think they'll be a little better than mos think, this is naturally a very bad matchup for them in week one. Blaine Gabbert torched them last year, and they've had two huge injuries to a secondary that was thin to begin with. It's true that RB Derrick Washington was suspended for some sort of psychopathic behavior resulting in a restraining order against him by his tutor, and that only one significant WR returns from a year ago, but I'm sure Mizzou will get someone to step up at those spots. Offensively, the Illini are starting a redshirt freshman who has never taken a snap, and he'll have to go against a secondary with 4 returning senior starters. Like I said, I like the new coordinators, and I think Illinois might do ok this year. hell, they might even pile up some yardage in this game. But they won't be able to score enough to keep this one close, even with some good performances.
10. Boise St-1 1/2 v Virginia Tech: Boise is returning by far the most experienced team in the country, and they are returning guys who have had all kinds of success. Every conceivable player from last year is back. We all know the implications of this game for Boise, so I won't even elaborate. VT also appears to be a pretty solid outfit, but they have all kinds of patching to do on the defensive side of the ball. They'll have to face Kellen Moore, who sported a 39/3 ratio last year and completed 64% of his throws. Offensively, they look like they will be ok,with RB Ryan Williams being one of my favorite players in the country but Boise is extremely well coached on both sides of the ball. The market overwhelmingly likes VT, as the line has dropped from 4 all the way to 1 1/2, but I think Boise is for real(how many times do they have to prove that?) I learned in the bowl game last year that I'll never fade Boise again.
Others: Northwestern is a terrible favorite, and they will probably need some time to marinate before they are ready to perform like they did at the end of last year. They're playing Vandy, who everyone is down on due to coach Williams sudden retirement late in the spring. But they have some returners on both sides of the ball, so it should be a good battle. NW should probably always be faded when they're favored......the public loves Purdue getting 11 from Notre Dame, and I think that number might be a bit stiff based on the uncertainty of Dayne Crist for ND, and the new systems, but I'm still inclined to back Brian Kelly. His schemes are proven, and he's got the likes of Michael Floyd and Kyle Rudolph to exploit. part of the love for Purdue, most of it actually, is some sort of infatuation with Robert Marve, who transferred from Miami. Apparently, those who are excited about him consider only that he looks pretty cool walking around campus and never saw tapes of him actually playing because he sucks at playing quarterback....I lean to Kentucky -3 at Louisville because the talent level looks to be pretty skewed toward Kentucky, and I'll probably play them because I thoroughly dislike Louisville's skill people and the prospect of their having to learn a new system. But there's something that tells me to stay away from UK as a favorite here, so not a musing....
That's it for week one. I have to say that my confidence level is not sky high for what is normally a strong week for me. We'll see what happens though. Just glad to get started.
You can add Butch Davis to the Honorary Jackie Sherrill "We ain't molding Boy Scouts down here" list. First, he has professional swindler/"recruiting guru" John Blake on his staff, which raises eyebrows. Now it appears as though he has managed to positively influence almost nobody on his team. How much lack of control has to be evident when you actually have to ask for "rolling suspensions" in order to be able to field a team? Kudos to Butch...that's a stunning lack of ability to be policing his players. Every single guy on his team is running wild, having grades changed, making it rain in strip clubs, attending Chrystal parties in South Beach, etc. Way to go Butch!! At least you aren't trying to fool people into thinking you're actually making some semblance of an attempt at a clean football program. The end result of this UNC fiasco might end up being 16 guys get suspended v LSU, which is too bad because it would have been fun watching Less Miles trying to figure out a way to get anywhere on that defense. I liked UNC before, but it's an unbettable game now.
Also, the Big Ten made some news by announcing the new divisions to begin play next year. First of all, I'm not even going to get into the whole argument of whether expanding and moving to divisional play with a championship is a good idea, because that's an entirely different discussion. But in this case, given the circumstances, there was a logical way to align the divisions, and shockingly, it wasn't done correctly. Why am I never consulted on these things? Actually, based on Jim Delany's track record, and the fact that there are what I considered to be somewhat sane people in AD positions throughout the Big Ten, I was hopeful that it would not be botched. I was bitterly disappointed. In fact, there are so many things wrong with how they aligned the divisions, I don't have enough time or space to list them. I'll go with the obvious: First, the fact that Michigan and Ohio St were split up has caused way too much discussion. Michigan sucks so much donkey cock right now that even mentioning them as a possible contender in any Big Ten division is side splitting hilarity. But let's suspend logic for a minute and consider if they ever get good again. By splitting OSU and UM up but yet triumphantly announcing that they will continue to play the last week of the season, you are opening up the possibility of making irrelevant the very game you are trying to restore. What if both teams win their division? They'll play twice in a row and the game is rendered meaningless. What if both lock up their divisions the week prior? Should they even play the game? The Big Ten has gone out of it's way to completely destroy the game, not keep it relevant. (as an aside, I don't give a flying fuck about this game...just playing along.)
As for the alignment of the divisions, the Big Ten had two choices: Go by geography, or don't go by geography. They have several examples to look at for reference, but let's consider the three big conferences that currently employ divisions: The SEC, Big 12 and ACC. Two of them go by geography, one does not. The SEC has the East and the West, the Big 12 the North and the South. Everyone knows who is in what division. The rivalries are mostly geographical, and even the ones that aren't in the SEC's case, they set them up to play every year(LSU/Florida, Georgia/Auburn, Alabama/Tennessee). In the Big 12's case, it even has led to a weak division and a strong one. No matter, it works anyway. Now, let's look at the ACC. The do not use geography. They are the least respected conference. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY knows who is in what division in the ACC. I follow college football very close, and I have no idea. There are no strong rivalries in the ACC. ZERO.
So which model did the Big Ten follow? Naturally, the ACC. Why? Probably because there is some conception that the power in the Big Ten is concentrated in the eastern part of the footprint. First of all, any conception about where the programs stand right now is irrelevant, since teams go through peaks and valleys through time. Having said that, though, that conception is false, especially with the addition of Nebraska. The Big Ten should have been split up into the East and West with the split coming at the Indiana/ Illinois state line. East: Penn State, Michigan, Ohio St, Michigan St, Purdue, Indiana. West: Illinois, Northwestern, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska. Believe it or not, if you look at 10 year records and bowl appearances and compare the divisions, you could actually make a case that the West is stronger of you rank each program 1-6 and compare them. This would have been the right way to do it. Geographic rivalries are intact, and the ones that aren't (only Illinois/Indiana in my opinion, and who really gives a shit anyway) could play each other every year. Also, you still have the bus ride road trips, making it easier for fans to travel. With the logic devoid divisions they came up with, Wisconsin has neither Iowa nor Minnesota in their division, so they will go years without playing one of those two despite having good rivalries with them. The whole thing is a complete joke. I don't even want to talk about it anymore.
4. @Clemson -26 1/2 v North Texas: I kind of liked North Texas coming into lat year because they had the coach's son Riley Dodge, a highly ranked recruit, coming in to play QB. However, injuries have derailed his career, so it's back to normal schlub QBs who nobody else wanted for North Texas. Here are the scores of North Texas's non-conference games vs BCS opponents(and some non-BCS) since 2005: 54-2, 54-7, 56-3, 56-7, 79-10, 66-7, 45-6, 41-3, 77-20, 53-7. None of these come even close to covering 26.5. Here are Clemson's NC games against Sun Belt/MAC, etc type teams since '05: 37-7, 54-6, 51-0, 63-9, 49-26, 70-14, 37-14. Not many games in either of those bunches that were even remotely close. So the question must be, what is different about either of these team to expect a somewhat closer game? Clemson looks to be a pretty solid outfit this year, at least as good as they've been in recent years, as they have most of their defense, 4 starting OL and QB Kyle Parker back. North Texas looks like a middle of the pack Sun Belt team, though not quite as good as they looked to me last year. I'm really struggling to find a reason as to why this spread isn't in the 30's, so I'm pulling the trigger at 26.5.
5. @Florida -36 1/2 v Miami (OH): More is expected of Miami(OH) this year, but that's mostly because they were so terrible last year. Their offensive line is coming back pretty much intact, but it was undoubtedly the worst OL in the country last year, and 2 of the starters apparently just got injured late in fall camp. They were 119th in ypc last year and 119th in sacks allowed. That's a bad combination. It's a new era for Florida, so there will be a lot of excitement, and there will be a need to get some work in. New QB John Brantley appears to be the real deal, and I would not be surprised if he is one of the top 2 QBs in the SEC immediately. He only played in garbage time last year, but he threw 7TDs in 48 attempts, so he knows what he's doing. Florida will probably have that spread covered by half, and I see very little chance that it doesn't end up being a 56-7 type game. It might be worse than that if Urban shows a lack of decorum.
6. @Nebraska -37 1/2 v Western Kentucky: I hate to keep harping on these huge favorites, but Western Kentucky is probably going to be the worst team in D1 this year, and that might be the case on both sides of the ball. The chances are probably better than 75% that they get shut out, and Nebraska will almost certainly be in the 50's. It's a ton of points, but the value is on Nebraska here.
7. Tulsa -7 1/2 @ East Carolina: Skip Holtz left ECU for South Florida, and he's left the cupboard pretty bare, especially on defense, which has been ECU's calling card for the most part. Only 1 of ECU's top 8 tacklers return on defense and they will have to deal with a Tulsa offense which looks to be loaded again for Todd Graham, who I consider to be one of the better offensive minded coaches around. They return QB GJ Kinne as well as all their leading rushers and all but one of the guys who caught a pass for them last year, including their top 2. 4 of the 5 linemen are back...they look like a solid unit. On the other side of the ball, ECu has a new QB, all but one skill guy are gone, and their line is missing 3 starters. Throw in that they have to learn a whole new system under Ruffin McNeil, the former Texas Tech behemoth DC who the Red Raiders had no interest in promoting, and I think ECU might be in for a long day. I generally don't like backing these western teams from CUSA when they come east, but I think there's a big edge for Tulsa here. This game is on Sunday, by the way.
8. UCONN +3 @ Miss shit can: I just can't resist. This went under 3, so I was on the fence, but now that it's back to a field goal, I want a piece of Dick Rod. Last year, UCONN lost 5 games, but all of them were by 4 or less. I think I've been clear about what I think about randy Edsall, and it looks like this might be the best team he's had. The QB is back, one of their 2 1,000 yard rushers from last year is back along with 4 of the 5 starting linemen. Michigan looks to be bad again on defense, as they lost by far their best player off last year's terrible defensive unit. They'll probably be ok on offense, but again not explosive, and UCONN has plenty of defensive talent back. The pressure on Dick Rod is suffocating, and the players know that it will create an absolute firestorm if they lose. I think UCONN expects to come in and win, and with how snakebitten Michigan has been and will probably continue to be under Dick Rod, I think it's likely that they will.
9. Missouri -12 1/2 v Illinois: Although I think the Illini have made a major upgrade in coaching with their coordinators, and I think they'll be a little better than mos think, this is naturally a very bad matchup for them in week one. Blaine Gabbert torched them last year, and they've had two huge injuries to a secondary that was thin to begin with. It's true that RB Derrick Washington was suspended for some sort of psychopathic behavior resulting in a restraining order against him by his tutor, and that only one significant WR returns from a year ago, but I'm sure Mizzou will get someone to step up at those spots. Offensively, the Illini are starting a redshirt freshman who has never taken a snap, and he'll have to go against a secondary with 4 returning senior starters. Like I said, I like the new coordinators, and I think Illinois might do ok this year. hell, they might even pile up some yardage in this game. But they won't be able to score enough to keep this one close, even with some good performances.
10. Boise St-1 1/2 v Virginia Tech: Boise is returning by far the most experienced team in the country, and they are returning guys who have had all kinds of success. Every conceivable player from last year is back. We all know the implications of this game for Boise, so I won't even elaborate. VT also appears to be a pretty solid outfit, but they have all kinds of patching to do on the defensive side of the ball. They'll have to face Kellen Moore, who sported a 39/3 ratio last year and completed 64% of his throws. Offensively, they look like they will be ok,with RB Ryan Williams being one of my favorite players in the country but Boise is extremely well coached on both sides of the ball. The market overwhelmingly likes VT, as the line has dropped from 4 all the way to 1 1/2, but I think Boise is for real(how many times do they have to prove that?) I learned in the bowl game last year that I'll never fade Boise again.
Others: Northwestern is a terrible favorite, and they will probably need some time to marinate before they are ready to perform like they did at the end of last year. They're playing Vandy, who everyone is down on due to coach Williams sudden retirement late in the spring. But they have some returners on both sides of the ball, so it should be a good battle. NW should probably always be faded when they're favored......the public loves Purdue getting 11 from Notre Dame, and I think that number might be a bit stiff based on the uncertainty of Dayne Crist for ND, and the new systems, but I'm still inclined to back Brian Kelly. His schemes are proven, and he's got the likes of Michael Floyd and Kyle Rudolph to exploit. part of the love for Purdue, most of it actually, is some sort of infatuation with Robert Marve, who transferred from Miami. Apparently, those who are excited about him consider only that he looks pretty cool walking around campus and never saw tapes of him actually playing because he sucks at playing quarterback....I lean to Kentucky -3 at Louisville because the talent level looks to be pretty skewed toward Kentucky, and I'll probably play them because I thoroughly dislike Louisville's skill people and the prospect of their having to learn a new system. But there's something that tells me to stay away from UK as a favorite here, so not a musing....
That's it for week one. I have to say that my confidence level is not sky high for what is normally a strong week for me. We'll see what happens though. Just glad to get started.
Week 1 weeknight musings
OK, here we go. However, before we get started, I wanted to get some thoughts off my chest.
First, in the preseason musings, I had a couple things I forgot to mention. Alabama is everyone's hero...they were just about a consensus pick for #1 in the country, and most can't fathom the prospect of the great Nick Saban doing anything other than running the table in blitzkrieg fashion. If he does, it will be a masterful coaching job. Consider that Alabama has survived two consecutive SEC seasons undefeated, and will have to do it for an unprecedented third consecutive year to make the MNC game(probably). Also consider that they have 6 games this year in which their opponents will be treated to a bye the week prior to their game. Finally, remember that Alabama plays Florida during the season this year, in Tuscaloosa, after a 2 year hiatus from playing the Gators in the regular season. Can Bama beat Florida twice in the same season? Remember that these are college kids. In last year's SEC title game, I was all over Bama because of the unquestioned motivational edge they had on Florida approaching the game. They had lost the year before, effectively ruining their season, and they got to stew about it for a year as the Gators pranced around with the trophy. Then they teed it up the following year. I'm sure that Florida was ready to play, but they were fat and happy. they just bear Bama the previous year, won a title..they didn't have much to prove. Now the flip side is true. Bama is satisfied with itself, and if they knock off Florida in Tuscaloosa as expected, they will have won a national title and beaten Florida twice in a row in the interim. Chances are, in order to make it back to the MNC game, they'll probably have to beat Florida a third time. I'm guessing that will be quite a difficult proposition. Don't get me wrong, I love Bama and their chances against San Jose St,(hardy har) but I think they will have a very hard time repeating because it's probably going to mean that they'll have e to beat Florida twice. Coming off a national championship, with all those toothless Bama fans telling these 18-19 year old kids how they've made their lives worth living again, I just think Florida will be more than ready to pounce in the SEC title game given another shot at them.
1. Southern Miss +14 @ South Carolina: I like South Carolina this year, I just don't really like this spot for them. First of all, Southern Miss has just about their entire defense back. In the Larry Fedora era, that's not necessarily a good thing, since their defenses have generally stunk, but they have athletes back, and that's a good thing when you're trying to put pressure on a skittish QB like Stephen Garcia. On offense, So Miss has a very good system that returns their starting QB as well as some solid receivers, so I think they will score. Even though the game is a national ESPN game, South Carolina can't help but be looking forward to their game next week with Georgia. They also have had NCAA investigators all up in their kitchen all week, so they might be distracted. So Miss will show up to play this game. South Carolina won't be able to just roll out their helmets here.
2. @Utah -2 1/2 v Pitt: Everybody loves Pitt's personnel, and with good reason, as they have 3 definite All American candidates in the RB Lewis, WR Baldwin and DE Romeus. However, they've been hot by a couple suspensions on defense, and will be starting a first timer at QB (Tino Sunseri, ugh) in a very tough and hostile environment. Although I'm not a big fan of him, Kyle Whittingham is a good coach, and we can assume, rather confidently, that the Utes will have the coaching edge as well as a boost from the home crowd. Lots of returners for the Utes as well. Kudos to Pitt for their schedule this year, as they also have ND and Miami in the non-con. This is a heck of a lot to ask of them in week one. If they go out there and beat the Utes in that environment(Utah's only lost something like 3 home games in 5 years) I'll tip my hat to Wanny.
3. USC -20 1/2 @ Hawaii: USC laying less than 3 scores against a middle of the pack WAC team? Sign me up. I realize all the trouble that the Trojans have had in the past 16 weeks or so, and the smoke continues to rise over Kiffin, but even if Hawaii was returning a bunch of solid guys, I'd be very hesitant to take them here, and they aren't returning an impressive bunch. Also, as much as we all despise Kiffin, that Tennessee team was well coached last year, and they have loads of talent for Monte Kiffin to tinker with on defense. I also think they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder this year....and the statement will probably start in game 1.
Others: I liked MTSU(+3) before their QB Dasher got in trouble. He's the best player in the Sun Belt so it's a big loss. The line moved from MTSU -4 to +#, a huger move. I'll still be betting on the Blue Raiders, since I think Minnesota is in trouble this year, but it's hard to bet on a SBC team with a QB having taken no snaps against a Big Ten team while getting only 3.
Talk soon.
First, in the preseason musings, I had a couple things I forgot to mention. Alabama is everyone's hero...they were just about a consensus pick for #1 in the country, and most can't fathom the prospect of the great Nick Saban doing anything other than running the table in blitzkrieg fashion. If he does, it will be a masterful coaching job. Consider that Alabama has survived two consecutive SEC seasons undefeated, and will have to do it for an unprecedented third consecutive year to make the MNC game(probably). Also consider that they have 6 games this year in which their opponents will be treated to a bye the week prior to their game. Finally, remember that Alabama plays Florida during the season this year, in Tuscaloosa, after a 2 year hiatus from playing the Gators in the regular season. Can Bama beat Florida twice in the same season? Remember that these are college kids. In last year's SEC title game, I was all over Bama because of the unquestioned motivational edge they had on Florida approaching the game. They had lost the year before, effectively ruining their season, and they got to stew about it for a year as the Gators pranced around with the trophy. Then they teed it up the following year. I'm sure that Florida was ready to play, but they were fat and happy. they just bear Bama the previous year, won a title..they didn't have much to prove. Now the flip side is true. Bama is satisfied with itself, and if they knock off Florida in Tuscaloosa as expected, they will have won a national title and beaten Florida twice in a row in the interim. Chances are, in order to make it back to the MNC game, they'll probably have to beat Florida a third time. I'm guessing that will be quite a difficult proposition. Don't get me wrong, I love Bama and their chances against San Jose St,(hardy har) but I think they will have a very hard time repeating because it's probably going to mean that they'll have e to beat Florida twice. Coming off a national championship, with all those toothless Bama fans telling these 18-19 year old kids how they've made their lives worth living again, I just think Florida will be more than ready to pounce in the SEC title game given another shot at them.
1. Southern Miss +14 @ South Carolina: I like South Carolina this year, I just don't really like this spot for them. First of all, Southern Miss has just about their entire defense back. In the Larry Fedora era, that's not necessarily a good thing, since their defenses have generally stunk, but they have athletes back, and that's a good thing when you're trying to put pressure on a skittish QB like Stephen Garcia. On offense, So Miss has a very good system that returns their starting QB as well as some solid receivers, so I think they will score. Even though the game is a national ESPN game, South Carolina can't help but be looking forward to their game next week with Georgia. They also have had NCAA investigators all up in their kitchen all week, so they might be distracted. So Miss will show up to play this game. South Carolina won't be able to just roll out their helmets here.
2. @Utah -2 1/2 v Pitt: Everybody loves Pitt's personnel, and with good reason, as they have 3 definite All American candidates in the RB Lewis, WR Baldwin and DE Romeus. However, they've been hot by a couple suspensions on defense, and will be starting a first timer at QB (Tino Sunseri, ugh) in a very tough and hostile environment. Although I'm not a big fan of him, Kyle Whittingham is a good coach, and we can assume, rather confidently, that the Utes will have the coaching edge as well as a boost from the home crowd. Lots of returners for the Utes as well. Kudos to Pitt for their schedule this year, as they also have ND and Miami in the non-con. This is a heck of a lot to ask of them in week one. If they go out there and beat the Utes in that environment(Utah's only lost something like 3 home games in 5 years) I'll tip my hat to Wanny.
3. USC -20 1/2 @ Hawaii: USC laying less than 3 scores against a middle of the pack WAC team? Sign me up. I realize all the trouble that the Trojans have had in the past 16 weeks or so, and the smoke continues to rise over Kiffin, but even if Hawaii was returning a bunch of solid guys, I'd be very hesitant to take them here, and they aren't returning an impressive bunch. Also, as much as we all despise Kiffin, that Tennessee team was well coached last year, and they have loads of talent for Monte Kiffin to tinker with on defense. I also think they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder this year....and the statement will probably start in game 1.
Others: I liked MTSU(+3) before their QB Dasher got in trouble. He's the best player in the Sun Belt so it's a big loss. The line moved from MTSU -4 to +#, a huger move. I'll still be betting on the Blue Raiders, since I think Minnesota is in trouble this year, but it's hard to bet on a SBC team with a QB having taken no snaps against a Big Ten team while getting only 3.
Talk soon.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)