Week 3 Weeknighters

Hello all...at first glance, week 3 appeared to pale in comparison to the slate from week 2 as far as number of cool, interesting games. However, looking closely, although there aren't any end all be all, top tier games this week, there are a lot of interesting second tier type games. We'll get into those during the full complement later.

1.(TONIGHT) @NC State -1 1/2 v Cincinnati: Any chance you get to take a home team on Thursday night, you try to take. In this case, we have Cincinnati traveling on a short week to Raleigh, which is not an easy place to play. Cincinnati is still in the midst of a transition to new coach Butch Jones, who will probably eventually get them settled in as an upper echelon Big East team. So far this year, however, it's been a pretty big dropoff from the performances these guys put up under Brian Kelly. In their first game at Fresno, they looked good for the first two possessions, then apparently decided to sign off for the night. They amassed a total of 235 yards against a Fresno defense that has traditionally resembled a pile of toothpicks, and doesn't appear to be much better this year. Defensively, even under Kelly they were extremely shaky against the pass..he just figured out ways to patch holes with masking tape and gum where necessary. Now they travel to NC State and need to win outright to cash a bet. NC State is coming off a win @Central Florida. UCF is going to probably win their division in CUSA. Despite playing terribly on offense, NC State managed a win in a tough environment on the road. My guy Russell Wilson had an awful game, completing only 10 for 30 and managing only 2+ yards per attempt. Obviously, he is much better than that and figures to bounce back with a much better game at home against a worse defense than he faced last week. Cincy QB Zach Collaros had some magic last year, but that magic might have left with Coach Kelly, as he was sacked 8 times against Fresno, and even a couple times last week by Indiana St. NC State brings pressure, so we might see more of the same. Coming off a nice road win, the fans should be jacked up tonight, and in that kind of atmosphere is just don't see Cincy being able to chalk up a W agaisnt an NC State team that is probably going to turn in an even better performance than they did last week.

2. (FRIDAY) Cal -2 1/2 @Nevada: At this point, the story on Nevada is pretty simple. 1.They kick the living shit out of weak teams who can't matchup up athletically with their running game and have weak offenses. 2. They shit the bed against physically superior teams that can throw the ball. Cal obviously qualifies for the second group. I realize this is a dangerous bet, since it's a hugely public play. Cal is coming off a demolition of Colorado at home and they have Arizona on deck next week. Also, there's always the fear that Nevada, with the two headed rushing monster of Kaepernick and Taua might finally sack up and take it to a competent squad, and they destroyed a somewhat legit program in Colorado St last week. However, to be able to win games like this, they are going to have to figure out a way to stop someone through the air, and they've not only been bad over the years, they've been helpless. 118th last year against the pass for example. The value is undoubtedly on Cal here, as Nevada has to win the game to cover. Until Nevada figures out a way to hang with the big boys, I have to fade them in situations like this. I'm sure they'll get big chunks of yards at times, as the effectiveness of that running game they have is undeniable, but in the end, they won't have enough to close out a win.

The other Friday night game is interesting as well, Southern Miss laying between 5 and 6 at home to Kansas. The urge in that game is to fade Kansas in their first road game with a new coach and new QB, but that spread has gotten a bit too high for my taste. Kansas looked much better in their second game against Ga Tech, and their defense actually has played well two weeks in a row. If they were going in there as any kind of a favorite, I'd be all over Southern Miss, since the atmosphere there figures to be wild on a national TV game in Hattiesburg. Unfortunately, Southern Miss hasn't given us enough evidence that they have enough offense to pull off a decisive win here, so I'm laying off. I'll have the full complement soon. Take care until then.