Week 4 Musings

Boy, I was feeling good last week about this time. Coming off a nice 9-4 week, got the Thursday nighter for once, and a card of games on Saturday that I felt really good about. Then.....Boom goes the dynamite. We can sit around and rehash it, but it was another week of no breaks. One of these days, I'll be ON a team at +1 1/2 that has lost all momentum and is about to go to overtime on the road, yet gets a 45 yard TD pass with 10 seconds left and no timeouts to pull it out. Or I'll be on a team sneaks out a cover largely because they got a TD when one of their special teamers blasted into a guy trying fair catch a punt, then jumped on the ball when it bounced into the end zone. (ref ruled that the offender was blocked into the returner...replays call bullshit.) Eh, stop yer complainin" jackass!

I do have to recount the USC/Minny game, though. USC leads 32-14(should have been 35-14, but this idiot Kiffin continues his schitzo obsession with going for 2. Usc has the ball with about 2 minutes to go. They need one more first down to begin taking a knee. They get the first down. They don't take a knee. They handoff, the dude fumbles and Minnesota takes over. 4 plays later, with 9 seconds on the clock, naturally, they score a TD and the final is 32-21. No going for two there for Minny! Musings had 11 1/2. Better luck next week!

I had actually considered betting on Pitt last night, but after some closer inspection, decided not to make it a musing, or even an also ran. If you didn't catch the game, good for you, because if you had any rooting interest in Pitt, it was not a barrell of laughs. Everything they did was a failure. They couldn't really cover, couldn't run, certainly couldn't throw to save their lives..they basically chewed on a bag of dicks all night long. they loked like a MAC team speed wise. About the only thing they did right was catch the ball a couple times when Jacory Harris inevitably threw it to them. The only good thing that came out of that was the possibility that Miami will be overvalued in the coming weeks.

I'm sure it's too late for tonight for most of you, but I'm going to play TCU tonight. I've seen them murder too many undermanned teams early and often to not go for a ride on the Frog train tonight. Gary Patterson also supposedly has some issues with June Jones as well, and doesn't like to play on Fridays, because he feels like that's sacred ground for high schools in Texas. But Jones and ESPN pushed for Friday, prompting him to say, "They wanted a Friday night game, so we're going to give them a Friday night game." It's only a 30 minute drive from Ft Worth to SMU's campus, so not much of a HFA for SMU. Kyle Padron has also been underwhelming, while nobody has been able to TCU on the flip side. Looks like a 48-17 type game to me.


1. @Iowa -28 v Ball State: Iowa was a musing last week, so naturally they were victim to a blocked punt and a pick 6 within the first 5 minutes of the game. They got all kinds of shit luck last week, so they'll be looking to get back on track, and you probably couldn't come up with a better opponent for that than Nad State. Both of Ball State's Qbs are terrible. They've lost to Liberty. They're probably the worst team in the MAC, and this year, that's saying something. Iowa has Penn State on deck, but first things first, they will want to get the bad taste of their trip to Tucson out of their mouths, so they might have this one covered by halftime. A first half bet might not be a bad idea either.

2. Fla International +12 @Maryland: You'd really like to have more than 12 points whenever you're betting on a team that has been among the worst in D-1 since inception, but I think FIU has a very legit shot at the outright here. They've played 2 BCS teams so far, Rutgers and Texa A&M. They dominated Rutgers in Miami, holding them to 172 total yards. then they went to A&M and forced the Aggies to come back late and hold them off by 7. In that game, they harrassed Jerod Johnson, who some think is among the top 5 QBs in the country to 11-31 and 4 picks. They also sacked him 6 times. Now they face a Maryland team who's offense resembles a Three Stooges routine. Last week they gained a grand total of 217 yards, which included 2 fluke long passes(60 and 80 yards) where the DB fell down on one and the ball was tipped on the other.Take that 140 yards away on those 2 plays, and it leaves you with 77 total yards on 51 plays. Even if you take away (-40) yards on sacks, they still barely cracked 100 yards. Oh yeah, did I mention that Maryland gave up 8 sacks last week? FIU might actually have the edge at the line of scrimmage in this one. FIU's offense is as you would expect(bad), but they've been able to patch together some scores in the first 2 games against better competition than Maryland. I'll take the double digits here.

3. Virginia Tech -4 @Boston College: I think this is where VT starts to get some traction this year. Unfortunately for them, they lost All American in Ryan Williams, but fortunately for them, they have 2 capable guys to step in with Darren Evans and David Wilson. BC also has not shown any explosion on offense, and I think VT will settle in defensively while exploiting what appears to be a glaring lack of speed on their defense. BC's MO on offense is the run game with Montel Harris, but he only ran for 80yards on 29 carries against Kent St their last time out. I think VT wins this one comfortably.

4. NC State +8 @Georgia Tech: Over the years, these ACC teams have been for the most part interchangeable. As a result, playing dogs has been a solid idea, and a profitable one in the conference, especially when we're talking about anything more than a TD. Georgia Tech is coming off a nice road win over North Carolina, now they face NC State at home. In my opinion, these teams are pretty evenly matched. NC State will probably have some issues stopping the Ga tech option, but the Wreck has been anything but staunch on defense the past couple of years, and we all know how I feel about my guy Russell Wilson. (8-0 ratio so far this year by the way.) I would not be surprised in the least if NC State pulled this one out, so obviously, I think 8 points is a good play. You can get 8.5 in some spots.

5. @Texas -15 1/2 v UCLA: Although i'm not a big fan of Texas, especially their offense, I really can't see how UCLA gets anything at all going on offense in this game. They absolutely cannot throw the ball. At all. They grinded out a nice win against Houston last week, but mostly because they benefitted from Case Keenum and the backup QB being lost for the year with injuries. When that happens, your whole team's collective dobber goes limp, and you are apt to be steamrolled by a decent run game. UCLA's Jonathan Franklin is ok, but they have no shot of running the ball on Texas. If the Horns can figure out a way to get 24 points on the board, they'll have no trouble covering this one.

6. Alabama -7 @Arkansas: Don't get me wrong...I love Bobby Petrino and I love his offense. When most people look at this game, they focus on the matchup of Arkansas's offense agaisnt Alabama's defense and wonder if Ryan Mallett will be able to carve up the Tide's youn secondary. He might, although i doubt it, but in my opinion, the big question to ask if how in the hell Arkansas's defense will be able to stop this Alabama offense. I understand that Duke is pretty helpless on defense, but Alabama didn't even reach third down until late in the 3rd quarter last week. their running game is devastating, and Greg McElroy might be among the best Qbs in the nation if they ever needed him to be. At the end of the day, it's definitely possible that Mallett and Petrino figure out ways to score on bama, but I don't think they'll be able to keep them from scoring on them. It wouldn't surprise me if Bama is in the mid 40's in this one. I would definitely surprise me if Arkansas gets in the 30's even if they have a good amount of success.

7. @Colorado St +8 v Idaho: Listen, I was one of Idaho's biggest fans last year as they worked toward their first bowl probably ever, but are they ready to be a significant road favorite against a Mountain West team? I realize Colorado St has been putrid this year, but this will be their first home game of the year, and they have improved each week. Even though they lost at Miami(OH) last week, they actually had the better of the play. Their freshman QB is improving and now comes home to face an Idaho team coming off a decisive home win against UNLV. There is just a ton of value in this line for Colorado St. If the Vandals go on the road and take care of business, good for them, but I think it's much more likely that they find things tougher than they expect.

8. Nevada -4 @BYU: Holy shit, what a risky play this is. Nevada, as I've preached has been a gutless road team, especially against bully programs. However, the difference in play between these two teams this year is so wide, it can't be ignored. Offensively, BYU has been very bad, and the subsequent or previous results of the other teams on their schedule reflects that. They didn't set the world on fire at home against Washington in week 1, and we all saw what happened to them at home against Nebraska. Florida State completely shut BYU down, holding them to under 200 yards, but Oklahoma did whatever they wanted agaisnt them. Defensively, Nevada has enough to stop them, and I would dare say that the Wolfpack is a faster overall team than BYU. BYU also had tons of trouble with option tendencies against Air Force, and now they have a more potent rush offense to contend with in Nevada. As I mentioned, there's a ton of risk here based on Nevada's past, but looking at what has actually transpired onthe field, Nevada is the easy pick here. I would venture to say that I will be surprised if this game is close. Either Nevada is going to impose their will on BYU and run them off the field, or they won't show up. In that scenario, I'll take the on field advantage over the past history angle.

9. Oklahoma -14 v Cincinnati: This game is not being played at Nippert stadium on Cincy's campus, but actually Paul Brown Stadium. In my opinion, that is a big deal, because it will drastically diminish Cincy's HFA, if not completely negate it. Having watched Cincinnati's offense last week in Raleigh, I've concluded that their offense is not going to reach anything close to the heights they reached in years past under Kelly. Collaros is not the same guy because his line is awful. I heard that they were pissed at their performance last week, but Collaros couldn't even get a pass off. They can be spitting nails this week, but he'll probably be in the same position this week. Defensively, Cincy remains a weak outfit. As long as Oklahoma is mildly interested on offense, they should be able to get first downs at will. I understand the expectation of a Cincy bounceback, but even with a steely effort, I think they lose 44-10.

10. Georgia +2 @Mississippi St: I can't see MSU willing this game as a favorite. Maybe if they were dogged, but no way as a favorite. This, by the way, might be Mark Richt's last chance. They lose this one, and he might be gone. Georgia is also bringing back several guys who have been out, so that added boost will probably make a difference. I just can't visualize georgia losing this one. If so, they'll be free fallin.

11. South Carolina +3 @Auburn: The question is whether Auburn can strap it up two weeks in a row after a brutal game with Clemson last week. Clemson came in there and traded haymakers with them for 4 quarters, and now they have to get up yet again for another team that is probably a tad better than Clemson. Auburn's defense remains a bit leaky, as opposed to South Carolina, whose defense is well coached and can stop the run. Although Auburn's pass offense has been good statistically, the jury is still out on whether Cam Newton can throw enough to be successful. Although I am not a fan of Stephen Garcia, his weapons are significantly superior to Auburn's, and So Car has a better defense. I'll take the points.

12. West Virginia +10 @LSU: Oh, the humanity!!!!!!!! What happens to the world when these two brainiacs get together for a game? I would probably pay upwards of several thousands of dollars to be included in the pregame pleasantries between these two. Will it end up with Less and Bill sitting Indian style at midfield with coloring books and crayons? Will it resemble a conversation found at an assisted living facility? Will there be any multi-syllable words uttered? Will the conversation graduate past the color of the grass? The possibilities are endless. As for the game, LSU shouldn't be favored by this much over a team that can play some defense, and WV defin itely can. Also, they'll be jacked up with a chip on their shoulder as if they're taking on an SEC heavywieght, which LSU is not. LSu has been stout on defense as well, but WV has enough weapons to make some plays...Vandy and Miss St the past 2 weeks may have lulled them into a false sense of confidence after the UNC torching. I think WV can win this game, so I'll certainly take the 10.

13 @UTEP -11 1/2 v Memphis: Although they won last week at home against MTSU, they were outgained by a Sun Belt team without their QB. Now they go all the way out to El Paso to face a very good offensive team in UTEP, who will probably get their star RB Donald Buckram back. Memphis at this point has to be an auto fade against any team that can score, especially on the road, and UTEP will suffice here. UTEP will probably be in the high 30's at least, and expecting Memphis to be successful in this environment with a true freshman QB taking the snaps(too bad Cannon Smith was benched) is unreasonable.

Others: I kind of like Central Florida catching 7.5 at Kansas St. K State is brutally one dimensional and UCF can stop the run. They also have an interesting QB in Jeff Godfrey who might be able to make some things happen. I would generally like more than 7 here, but I'll be on it nonetheless....Northwestern is in danger of an upset this week if they don't play better on pass defense. Both Rice and Vandy moved the ball on them significantly, and now they face Central Michigan, who has looked very good through the air so far this year. We also must note the Cats' struggles as a home favorite. However, only 6.5 for CMU is not enough, given that Persa and company have looked great on the offensive side of the ball. It might be a nail biter for the Cats, though......Purdue keeps losing guys, and they couldn't run away from Ball St last week, so I'd think they'll struggle again this week against a better MAC team in Toledo(+11). Marve is still the QB, by the way, and their reliance on him increases by the week. Bad. ...I'll be on Army when they catch 6 at Duke. Although Duke can throw it around, they can't stop a soul on defense, and Army has been pretty good on offense this year. Tough to cover as a favorite when you keep getting scored on....ND is really only a couple plays away from being undefeated, and now they are getting 5 at home against a Stanford team that couldnot have possibly looked better so far this year. They are due for a correction, although I love Harbaugh. I can see ND winning this one, so I'll certainly take the 5. ND is seldom a home dog. That's it for this week. Let's see if we can turn it around!!!!