Week 2 Musings

During the weekend, as I buried my head in my hands while relaying the results of the numbered musings to my Dad, I did a self assessment. It's obvious that as the kids get older, and more things are going on at our house(#3 on the way, currently known as "girl") I have less time to do this stuff. Considering that I generally start off well, this past week's performance(3-6-1 thanks to Boise's comeback) is especially troubling, but I refuse to give up, because I like doing it too much. This week was definitely a remarkable one. Did you know that Florida had a grand total of 24 yards entering the fourth quarter last week? Let me first state for the record that I am absolutely considering that this game might have been fixed, but they ended up with 212, and 70+ of that came on a Jeff Demps long run in the last couple minutes. One of their other scores was an up for grabs tipped pass that was caught in the end zone. Having listened to a lot of that game, I can tell you that Florida was generally whipped on both sides of the line by Miami. Again...was Fat Tony involved? We'll see this week, I guess. Florida wasn't the only culprit. Texas got stuffed on 4 consecutive line plunges at the goal line by Rice. Yes, the same Rice team who was generally regarded as being among the 5 weakest defenses in the country last year. The same Rice who gave up an average of 50 pounds per man to Texas on the defensive line. Oklahoma was outgained by Utah State. USC got outgained by Hawaii, and that was in a game in which their offense was never stopped. North Texas outgained Clemson(another good pick for the musings). I could go on all night.

Speaking of Clemson, I think I've found a new meathead coach to pick on in Dabo Swinney. Dabo. Almost enough said right there. As an added bonus, not only does he appear to be a bit intellectually sluggish, but he's a selfish dickhead as well. Consider the following scenario: His QB Kyle Parker, who did a nice job as a redshirt freshman last year, was actually a draft eligible junior in baseball last year. He subsequently had a great year as an outfielder for Clemson last year and was drafted toward the end of the first round by the Rockies this past June. Parker, whether it's a smart move or not, told the Rockies that he'd like to play football this year. The Rockies offered him somewhere in the neighborhood of 2.5 Mill to give up football and start this year in the minors. He turned it down and ended up signing a deal for about half that if they let him play football. Now, if Dabo Swinney really had parker's interests at heart, he would explain to the kid that his best course of action to make the most money is to take the money and play baseball. At the very least, he should remain silent and let the kid make up his mind. What did Dabo do? He went on every talk show he could find and tried to justify that Parker's future is really in football. His exact workds were, "he has a chance to be draftable as a quarterback." Ok. So he has "a chance to be draftable" in a sport where he might have a 5 year career if he's lucky. Or he can go with the sport where he's already been a FIRST ROUND pick and offered 2.5 Million dollars, where he can have a career that could easily span 12-15 years and pays on the average 5 times as much as football. It's why Bo Jackson chose baseball despite being the #1 pick overall in the NFL. The only reason why Dabo is involved in this charade is because he has no other competent QB on his roster and Clemson fans would prefer to have a real coach patrolling the sideline. Everyone is looking for a reason to kick this buffoon to the curb, and he knows it. You hate to root for someone to get hurt, but if Parker gets hurt, that would be awesome karma.

Oh, one other thing: I was glad to see Utah beat Pitt for a lot of reasons, but espeecially when I realized that DE Jabaal Sheard, who is a really good player, ended up avoiding any kind of suspension after he almost killed a dude in a campus fight only about 5 weeks ago. I had assumed he was suspended indefinitely. I assumed wrong. Wanny apparently has even fewer scruples than I thought. Here's what the police officer who was present at the beatdown said about Sheard's antics. "Sheard refused to listen to my commands to stop fighting," the officer, Garret Brown wrote in an affidavit, "and continued to punch the victim, Edward Parker, in the face and to the body.
"At that time, Sheard then grabbed Parker by the clothing and threw him through the glass front door of the gallery.”

Brown went on to say that Sheard continued to punch him in the face while he was lying on the ground bleeding.



No suspension warranted there? Good for Wanny. I'd actually rather have it this way, because hating people is fun.


On to this week. I'm going to stay away from the Thursday game, though I really want to bet on Mississippi St. They looked great in week one, but they were so thoroughly dominated by Auburn last year with pretty much the same systems and the same personnel that I need more than a couple points to pluck down any hard earned cash on the Mulldogs. I would generally back WV on Friday night too, but I really need to avoid road favorites. An also ran on Friday however is UTEP +19 1/2 @Houston. Houston is a favorite because of the great offense, but UTEP has had their number lately, including a 58-41 win last year in El Paso. The problem for UTEP is that star RB Donald Buckram, who shredded Houston last year is questionable, but their backup is pretty good too. Houston will probably have a hard time stopping UTEP, and it's hard to cover a number when the other team keeps scoring. Just ask Tulsa.

On to the week...

1. @East Carolina -13 1/2 v Memphis: It's true that ECU brought back very little from their team last year, but I should have known not to lay points on the road with a bad defense like Tulsa's. I also didn't realize that Ruffin McNeil brought the OC from Texas Tech with him. As a result, their offense actually looked pretty good last week. On the other hand, Memphis did NOT look good, and that's an understatement. They got bulldozed by Mississippi St, and bulldozed is being kind. MSU racked up 569 yards on their defense. It usually takes them about 3 1/2 games to do that. Over the years, if you were going to name the worst and least explosive offenses in the country, the Bulldogs would be in the team picture. In the game last week, their scores were from 57, 55, 51, 27, 25, 20 and 1 yard, and the one yarder was immediately after an interception. Memphis looks like one of those teams that has to hit absolute rock bottom before they can go up, due to a dearth of talent left by the previous coach(think Coach Death Penalty himself, Lou Tepper, and what Ron Turner inherited at Illinois in 1997). They haven't hit rock bottom yet. I can't believe that they can be at all competitive on the road at this point. One cool thing about Memphis though...their Qb's name is Cannon Smith. Hard to be bad when you have a name like that, but judging by week one, he's been able to pull it off so far..

2. Hawaii +3 @Army: This is certainly the mother of all tough road trips, but from what I hear, the Rainbows have been on the East coast since Tuesday, so they'll be acclimated. I also don't like backing teams after very remarkable performances, but since they are actually dogged in this game, I have to take the points. Army has a woeful history as a favorite, which they share with Navy, and there is no doubt that the athletic edge is with Hawaii. Army also has nobody who can cover WR Greg Salas. Like I said, I wouldn't lay points with Hawaii here, but I'll take 'em. If Army beats Hawaii to go 2-0, my hat's off to them. Actually, I'd love to see it.

3. Eastern Michigan +16 1/2 @ Miami(OH): This is a classic case of a team being overvalued based on last week's performance. Although you have to give them credit for doing what they did to Florida, they should not be favored by 16 points over anyone. EMU does not look to be very strong this year, but they have enough on offense to put up some points. It's just an obscenely inflated line, and it must be played.

4. @Iowa -13 1/2 v Iowa St: I think this game has been a musing on the other side 3 or 4 years in a row. In my opinion, this is another line value play. Iowa St is a bit inflated because they beat what most consider to be a MAC title contender in NIU pretty handily last week. Also, this is a rivalry game, and one in which Iowa St has competed pretty well in recent years. I just don't see it this year however. If you line these teams up personnel wise, Iowa is vastly superior in all phases, even special teams. Iowa St is going to have issues running the ball, throwing the ball, you name it. People might not want to hear it, but Iowa is a legit threat to win the Big Ten, and as a result is a contender for the MNC game. Should Iowa St be getting less than 2 TDs against a team like that? Certainly not. On a neutral field I'd need 17 at least to consider betting Iowa St here, and they are only getting 13 1/2 in Iowa City. I'll take it.

5 @ Boston College -17 v Kent St: Big public play here, but these two teams matched up last year in Ohio and Kent only totalled 179 yards in a 34-7 BC win. At the time, BC played two QBs that were so bad they are no longer in the program, and they were in the middle of a complete transition with personnel on offense. They are much more settled this year. Now this year, BC is coming off a horseshit performance against Weber St in their opener, so they'll be looking to make amends, especially when they have cancer survivor Mark Herzlich back in the lineup screaming his head off. Kent has no offense whatsoever...I was expecting this line to be in the 25-26 range. BC has a nice offense back and their D should be improved. They should be a solid ACC squad this year, and I think they'll remind people of that coming off the poor performance.

6. @Cal -9 v Colorado: Colorado is coming off a nice performance over Colorado St in a game that usually results in a close final. However, that's no great shakes this year because CSU had NOBODY coming back and was playing a true freshman at QB. Now Colorado has to travel out to Berkeley and take on Cal. Even with the weak competition last week, Colorado only managed 307 total yards. They'll need a lot more than that to hang within DD against Cal here, as Cal returns just about everyone other than Jahvid Best on offense, and Shane Vereen is more than capable to step in, having averaged 5.2 per carry last year. Hell, his backup Covaugn Deboskie(another great name) averaged 6.8 per. I think if Cal played Colorado in Berkeley 10 times, they might hang within DD once or twice. It's likely a 34-13 type game.

7. @Ohio St -8 1/2 v Miami(FL): The public is all over the U in this one, but I'm not sold on that team. I still remember how many times that team folded last year when confronted with a somewhat uncomfortable situation...Virginia Tech, Wisconsin in the bowl etc. Also, if they are going to compete in this game, they will need to play a heck of a lot better on defense than they have in the recent past. Ohio St has struggled in the past against fast, physical defenses, but Miami is anything but that. If Terrelle Pryor is in his comfort zone, Miami is going to be in danger of giving up 30+ points, and I think OSU has the ability to harass Jacory Harris into a cocoon. This line has been falling, too.

8. Florida St +8 @Oklahoma: This line is also falling, and it's also a public favorite...oh well. I would generally look at this line and immediately think that there's a ton of value in such a short line for a game in Norman, but Oklahoma looked so bad in so many phases last week, that I think it will take everything they have just to win this game outright. I remain anything but a believer in Landry Jones. he completed only 47% of his throws last week against Utah St. It's true that FSU was horrific on defense last year, but they have a new scheme and a ton of talent on that team..they are going to be much better this year. Oklahoma had to give it to Demarco Murray 35 times last week to escape because they didn't have the confidence to throw it effectively on Utah St, and they had all kinds of problems with big plays on defense as well. They are stepping up big time in class. If they don't step up their game drastically, and turn in a performance similar to the USU game, they'll get beat handily. I'd feel more comfortable if this was on a neutral field though...Owen Field is a house of horrors for opponents.

9. @Alabama -12 v Penn St: How can a true freshman go into Bryant Denny Stadium in this spot and be anything other than a basket case? That's what's happening here, as Joe Pa is starting true frosh Robert Bolden. He might be worthy of the start, but I think it's more of an indictment of what Penn St has as an alternative than an endorsement of Bolden. We shall see, I guess. Alabama is replacing a lot, but they are still well coached and just about every guy on the two deep was a 5 star recruit. On offense, Bama is explosive, especially now that Trent Richardson is getting an additional 10 or so carries per game due to heisman winner Mark Ingram's injury. This is the classic SEC v Big Ten slow guys v fast guys at the fast guys stadium type game. I'd love to see Penn St go in there and impose their will, but I think it will more closely resemble when Virginia Tech went into Baton Rouge and got their clocks cleaned a couple years ago.

10. @Air Force pk v BYU: BYU has owned Air Force over the years, but I think this is the year that the Falcons finally take care of the Cougs. They are always sharp early in the season, and all of their guys are healthy. BYU won at home against Washington, but i don't think they were very impressive in doing so....this looks like a BYU team that Air Force can match up with a bit physically. The running backs for BYU are not outstanding, and I think Jake Heaps is going to continue to struggle completing passes as long as he keeps throwing such a heavy ball. They won't be able to live forever with Riley Nelson scampering around. Air Force has had problems with the vertical passing game in the past under the likes of John Beck and Max Hall, and if BYU can't bring that aspect, Air Force can stop a ground based attack. BYU is also young on defense. I like Air Force to win this one.


11. Ole Miss -21 @Tulane: Tulane, like Memphis, looks absolutely God-awful this year. Absolutely nobody back on offense and a defense that couldn't stop a soul either. Ole Miss will be hacked off based of their loss to Jaxy St last week, and will be looking for a reason to dish out some punishment. They'll find a great candidate inTulane. The Wave totaled only 252 yards against SE Louisiana, so it's likely that Ole Miss can shut them out. Tulane looks really, really bad.

12. NC State +3 1/2 @UCF: Central Florida has a chance to be pretty good this year, but this is asking a lot. NC State has some holes to fill in places, but they return Russell Wilson(do I need to profess my love for this guy again??) and all of their playmakers at receiver. It's a good offense. UCF is good on defense, and you would normally worry about the home field advantage, but the fans were booing the QB last week leading the coach (O'Leary!) to rip them all publicly. Might not be as much of HFA under those circumstances, and if the fans get their dobbers down, the momentum could shift quickly to the Pack.

13. USC -19 1/2 v Virginia: OK...this time I am almost sure I have found a team that USC can handle on defense. Virginia looked ok against Richmond, but they have absolutely no playmakers on offense and a terribly mistake prone QB in MarcVerica. they're in their second game in a new system and are traveling across the country to play a USC team that was embarrassed by it's terrible defensive play in week one. There's no way in my opinion that they don't bounce back under Monte Kiffin, and the offense figures to continue to roll along against an outmatched UVA squad. Kiffin will jump all over a chance to run it up here as well.




others: Michigan looked so good this past week that I have a hard time believing they can put together a game like that again. Also, I'm sure Brian Kelly was a keen observer of the film and has already formulated a plan. Even though they only gave up 10 points to UCONN, that was mostly because the Huskies continuously shot themselves in the foot..they still moved the ball pretty regularly on Michigan. Now Dick Rod has to get on the bus and do it again on the road, where his team has been helpless defensively for the most part. They have very little margin for error with such a short line. I lean to ND being the value side, especially if I can get -3......(it's at 3.5-4 now).......I also lean to South Carolina (at -3) at home against Georgia. SC looked good in their opener and they are getting back a couple other pieces that were suspended last week. On the contrary, Georgia will not be getting back AJ Green, which is a big loss for them. Also, this is another case of a freshman QB(redshirt) making his first road start. If georgia can't run the ball, they are going to be in trouble, and I think the jury is still out on that defense, which was among the worst they've ever had last year........Although the whole world was keenly aware that Ole Miss and the unlikable Houston Nutt shat the bed against Jacksonville St last week, there was nary a mention about Kansas and media darling Turner Gill managing all of 3 points against North Dakota, or North Dakota St or whoever they played. Now they face Ga Tech and are geting 13. It's a home game for them, so there's hope, ol Turner didn't set the world on fire in week one. If that option gets going, KU might get embarrassed....If Florida plays like they did against Miami, or even close to how they played against Miami, there's no way they'll cover 15 against USF. I tend to think last week was an aberration, but when you look at the personel that Florida has, you start to wonder where the production will come from. Having said that, Florida could put their helmets on backwards and crabwalk their way to 3 or 4 turnovers or botched punts or some other BS that would lead to 21 points, so I'm not going to test Urban meyer with a musing just yet. I'll be betting on USF though.....I am really down on LSU, and Vandy showed me a little in their game against Northwestern last week. LSU looks to me to be a team that is going to struggle to put anyone away, and if they get some bad breaks, it's not out of the question that Vandy's offense punches in a couple scores and makes Less Miles sweat a hole through his hat. I'll be taking the DD with Vandy (10)...That's it for now...take care!