Week 1 weeknight musings

OK, here we go. However, before we get started, I wanted to get some thoughts off my chest.

First, in the preseason musings, I had a couple things I forgot to mention. Alabama is everyone's hero...they were just about a consensus pick for #1 in the country, and most can't fathom the prospect of the great Nick Saban doing anything other than running the table in blitzkrieg fashion. If he does, it will be a masterful coaching job. Consider that Alabama has survived two consecutive SEC seasons undefeated, and will have to do it for an unprecedented third consecutive year to make the MNC game(probably). Also consider that they have 6 games this year in which their opponents will be treated to a bye the week prior to their game. Finally, remember that Alabama plays Florida during the season this year, in Tuscaloosa, after a 2 year hiatus from playing the Gators in the regular season. Can Bama beat Florida twice in the same season? Remember that these are college kids. In last year's SEC title game, I was all over Bama because of the unquestioned motivational edge they had on Florida approaching the game. They had lost the year before, effectively ruining their season, and they got to stew about it for a year as the Gators pranced around with the trophy. Then they teed it up the following year. I'm sure that Florida was ready to play, but they were fat and happy. they just bear Bama the previous year, won a title..they didn't have much to prove. Now the flip side is true. Bama is satisfied with itself, and if they knock off Florida in Tuscaloosa as expected, they will have won a national title and beaten Florida twice in a row in the interim. Chances are, in order to make it back to the MNC game, they'll probably have to beat Florida a third time. I'm guessing that will be quite a difficult proposition. Don't get me wrong, I love Bama and their chances against San Jose St,(hardy har) but I think they will have a very hard time repeating because it's probably going to mean that they'll have e to beat Florida twice. Coming off a national championship, with all those toothless Bama fans telling these 18-19 year old kids how they've made their lives worth living again, I just think Florida will be more than ready to pounce in the SEC title game given another shot at them.

1. Southern Miss +14 @ South Carolina: I like South Carolina this year, I just don't really like this spot for them. First of all, Southern Miss has just about their entire defense back. In the Larry Fedora era, that's not necessarily a good thing, since their defenses have generally stunk, but they have athletes back, and that's a good thing when you're trying to put pressure on a skittish QB like Stephen Garcia. On offense, So Miss has a very good system that returns their starting QB as well as some solid receivers, so I think they will score. Even though the game is a national ESPN game, South Carolina can't help but be looking forward to their game next week with Georgia. They also have had NCAA investigators all up in their kitchen all week, so they might be distracted. So Miss will show up to play this game. South Carolina won't be able to just roll out their helmets here.

2. @Utah -2 1/2 v Pitt: Everybody loves Pitt's personnel, and with good reason, as they have 3 definite All American candidates in the RB Lewis, WR Baldwin and DE Romeus. However, they've been hot by a couple suspensions on defense, and will be starting a first timer at QB (Tino Sunseri, ugh) in a very tough and hostile environment. Although I'm not a big fan of him, Kyle Whittingham is a good coach, and we can assume, rather confidently, that the Utes will have the coaching edge as well as a boost from the home crowd. Lots of returners for the Utes as well. Kudos to Pitt for their schedule this year, as they also have ND and Miami in the non-con. This is a heck of a lot to ask of them in week one. If they go out there and beat the Utes in that environment(Utah's only lost something like 3 home games in 5 years) I'll tip my hat to Wanny.

3. USC -20 1/2 @ Hawaii: USC laying less than 3 scores against a middle of the pack WAC team? Sign me up. I realize all the trouble that the Trojans have had in the past 16 weeks or so, and the smoke continues to rise over Kiffin, but even if Hawaii was returning a bunch of solid guys, I'd be very hesitant to take them here, and they aren't returning an impressive bunch. Also, as much as we all despise Kiffin, that Tennessee team was well coached last year, and they have loads of talent for Monte Kiffin to tinker with on defense. I also think they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder this year....and the statement will probably start in game 1.

Others: I liked MTSU(+3) before their QB Dasher got in trouble. He's the best player in the Sun Belt so it's a big loss. The line moved from MTSU -4 to +#, a huger move. I'll still be betting on the Blue Raiders, since I think Minnesota is in trouble this year, but it's hard to bet on a SBC team with a QB having taken no snaps against a Big Ten team while getting only 3.

Talk soon.