Week 3 Musings

It's always nice to get off to a good start on the Thursday night game. Let me just say that you can count me as a fan of the howling wolf call that NC State plays after every conceivable positive play. I've never noticed it before, but I love it. Have they always had that? If only I knew of any old friends that lived in Raleigh who might know......

Last week was positive, and much needed. 9-4 for the week, which moves the musings to 12-10-1 for the year. Not much better than a coin flip, but at least it's not like last year when I was immediately behind the 8 ball after some boneheaded capping in week 2 and week 3. I do have to say this however: My pick of Florida State +7 @Oklahoma last week had to be one of the most ill advised that I've ever vomited forth. It was the ultimate sucker bet, and it claimed several other buffoons who actually get paid to talk about this stuff. Truthfully, I had major second thoughts about that bet throughout Friday night and Saturday. As I told Mike(who made the trip down to the Land of the Lost last weekend), the kicker for me was when I heard Matt Millen say on the radio that FSU was his favorite upset pick of the week. In a nutshell, what we ended up having was an Oklahoma team laying less than a TD against a team with 13 freshman regulars and a rookie coach in his first road game. The team also was only 1 competent game against Samford removed from a defense that gave up 450+ yards 7 times last year. I was afraid that OU was sandbagging the previous week, and I suspect they were, unless of course Utah State is a top 10 caliber team. The game was never close. So that was a bad pick. The rest of the week wasn't bad, although another lowlight was another foray with USC as a 20+ point favorite. You mean to tell me that these fairies have to sweat out home games with Virginia now? I don't think there's a team in D-1 that I would trust USC to cover DD against.

3. USC -11 1/2 @ Minnesota: Well, there is at least one. I realize that USC has looked putrid in both weeks, but how in the wide wide world of sports can they not put the wood to Minnesota? USC has made a collective career on beating up on slow Big Ten teams, and you've got the poster child right here. Since Eric Decker has left the Gophers, Adam Weber has been mostly worthless. The Gophers have no pass game at all, and defensively they gave up gobs of yards to both South Dakota, or whoever the hell it was that the played last week as well as MTSU, who was playing a freshman who had never seen a college field in his life. USC should have no problem keeping them in check on offense, and Minny has long been a sieve defensively. If USC can't handle the Gophers, they need to fire Kiffin, because for his act to be tolerable, he has to win big.

4. @Georgia -2 1/2 v Arkansas: I think everyone is aware of my affinity for Arkansas and specifically, for HC Bobby Petrino and his offense. However, I think this is a bad spot for them. They have been a poor road team over the past couple of years, and now they have to wbasically win outright against a traditionally solid program coming off a debilitating loss. Looking at the motivation angle, while Arkansas would love to steal this game on the road, Georgia HAS to have this game. If they lose, they have a 1-2 record and are likely done in the SEC East. The Razorbacks will get the Dawgs best effort. Last year in Fayetteville, Joe Cox, Mr Pedestrian himself, threw for 375 yards, and Georgia's running backs ran wild, which I think has a strong chance of happening again. Truthfully, Arky might also be in a bit of a look ahead, as they have Bama on deck. Not enough D in my opinion, either.

5. @West Virginia -10 v Maryland: WV had a tough go last week against Marshall, having to score TD's on their last 2 possessions and pretty much the last play of the game to force OT, then pulled it out from there after Marshall puked on themselves in their possession. Had Bill Stewart lost that game, it would have been a sad day for the musings, because he probably would have been shot on the spot by some musket carrying toothless mountain man wearing a coonskin cap and buckskins. Now they come back home to face a Maryland team that has lived a charmed life so far. It's been well documented how badly Maryland was dominated by Navy, yet lucked their way into a victory there. They have absolutely no passing game, and WV has always been able to stop the run. It appears that WV QB Geno Smith figured some things out in the second half against Marshall, and they still have Noel Devine running around. I think Maryland's good fortune ends here this week, as two scores doesn't seem to be a difficult number for WV to cover at home.

6. UCONN -6 @Temple: This is somewhat of a risky play because UCONN has played Temple close in recent meetings, but I think we are seeing a lot of value here. UCONN had a terrible game against Michigan, but it appears, sadly, that Denard Robinson and company are for real, and they just had all sorts of things go wrong in that game. Temple is coming off back to back wins, but they were outplayed in both games by first Villanova and then a starting over Central Michigan team, both at home. UCONN's defense is a good one, and their offensive line is very good. Any play on temple here would be based on the fact that they've been able to stay close in the past mostly as a result of smoke and mirrors, and not on any review of the matchups. UCONN also has already lost, and has designs on a special season, so I think they will come out motivated to take it to Temple. I can see a 24-6 type game here if UCONN can avoid turnovers.

7. Vanderbilt +13 @Ole Miss: At this point, I'm annoyed with both of these teams. Ole Miss cost me a musing last week by failing to blow out a pitiful Tulane team, even going so far as to get outplayed and outgained by them badly in the second half. Although vandy wasn't a musing, they were playing LSU, so I had a vested insterest. I really don't think Vandy could have possibly played worse. Penalties, dropped balls, bonehead mistakes, and they were still sitting there in the third quarter only down 10-3. The roof caved in after that when they fumbled consecutive kickoff returns, but the point is that they were competing with LSU despite playing as poorly as they can. The week prior to that, Vandy put up 423 yards on a Northwestern defense that most assumed was going to be pretty decent, so the possibility of competent play is there. At this point, it's not outlandish to suggest that Ole Miss, even with Masoli, should not be laying a big number to anyone. They looked terrible against Tulane, and might actually be happy with themselves with the less than threatening notion of the 'Dores coming to town. However, I think Vandy will play much better than they did last week, and in their last 18 SEC games in which they have been a road dog, they're 14-3-1 ATS, and 6-0 in their last 6. The last time they went to Oxford they were a 7 point dog to a much better Ole Miss team and won outright. I think there's value here as long as they don't stomp all over their schlongs again.

8 @SMU -23 v Washington St: I think it might be a good idea to continue to fade Wazzou until they can prove that they can even stay in a game past the 1st quarter, especially on the road. With 8 minutes left in the 3rd quarter in week 1, they were already down 51-10 to Okie St. You can actually make a case that SMU's offense under June Jones is better than OSU's, and SMU's defense has been pretty solid as well, completely shutting down UAB last week and hanging with Texas Tech the week before that. I won't even look up the last time WSU did anything but induce uoproarious laughter among the visiting crowds in their road games. They are just a joke of a program right now. I can't say that there is any value in this line relative to most situations, but at this point, is there a line high enough for WAZZOU to cover??

9. @Wisconsin -13 1/2 v Arizona St: Wisconsin is coming off a lackluster performance against San Jose St, winning only 27-13 as a 39 point favorite. How can they cover 2 TDs against Arizona St you ask? Let me explain. The Badgers are as dominant a straight ahead running game as there is in college football in my opinion. John Clay runs over people, they have 5 experienced sides of beef on the OL, and they know they fucked around last week. Now they get a chance at some sort of satisfaction against the perfect foil...a west coast team who isn't very good, but conveniently comes in with a name and a shiny 2-0 record. ASU has been a coward program over the past few years...able to beat up on the patsies, but handed their heads against the big boys. As a road dog over the past 4 years, they are 2-6-1 ATS, and we've seen what happens when these west coast teams come east for an early game. They're also a mouthy bunch, which certainly won't endear them to anyone in Madison. One other thing....they've opened with Portland St and Northern Arizona. Tough competition. After having some trouble with Portland St on defense, one of the DLinemen said that they struggled at times because they had a tough camp and they were a little tired. So Portland St's offense makes you tired? And this guy is going to go up against Wisconsin's running game?

10. @Washington +3 1/2 v Nebraska: Honestly, I am not sold on Nebraska. They are ranked #8 in the country, and that's great for them, but I'm not sure what they've proven to get that spot. The ended last year great, but the biggest reason for that, Mr Suh, is busy crying about getting screwed out of a win in Chicago last week. They are starting a freshman QB, and are going on the road for the first time this year. It appears they have a stout running game with Roy Helu and Rex Burkhead(great name0, but there is no evidence that they can throw the ball with any success. Defensively, they are supposed to be stout, but they've given up lots of yards in both of their warm up games against Idaho(not a terrible thing) and Western kentucky(a terrible thing). Now they face a Washington team that has plenty of offensive weapons and a competent defense and have already worked up a lather against much tougher competition(BYU and a much better Syracuse team). Throw in the fact that this gives Steve Sarkisian another shot at a program building win, and I think Nebraska is walking into a tough situation here. The public is also ALL OVER Nebraska here. Gimme the points with the home dog.

11. @Florida St -10 1/2 v BYU: Unfortunately, this line has jumped a full point over the past day or so, but I still like the Noles here. Even though they played awful last week, as we all should have seen coming, they'll be looking for a bounce back performance in front of their home crowd in this one. BYU might be pissed off about getting their heads handed to them last year in Provo, but when you are beaten that soundly, there's a reason for it, and you probably don't match up well. FSU is probably a little better than last year, and there's no doubt that this BYU team is mere shadow of what they've been over the past few years. Long road trip for BYU...I just can't see them being competitive in this game.

12. Hawaii +12 1/2 @Colorado: For some reason this line keeps moving up. You can actually get 13 at some spots, but none of mine, so I'll go with 12 1/2. I actually bet this already at 10 1/2 earlier in the week, so I'll probably be doubling up. Colorado is coming off an ass kicking of mythic proportions against Cal. Generally you would assume that they would summon up their gumption and administer a beat down the next week. However, that scenario assumes that the team is any good. Colorado is not. It's like when the fat kid comes in last in a sprint against a bunch of track athletes. He might be mad about it, but he's still a fat slob, so he'll come in last next week too. Colorado didn't even look all that great in their game against Colorado St, who just got exposed further last week in Reno. I guess there could be some concern that Hawaii is facing their second road game on the mainland in a row, and now they have to deal with altitude. Whatever. Colorado is limited offensively, and I don't think their defense is much to write home about either. Hawaii has proven two weeks in a row that they can play, and getting double digits against a borderline bad Colorado team has loads of value.

13.Navy -3 @ Louisiana Tech: Another ridiculously public play, but La Tech is not nearly as tough as they've been in recent years. New coaching staff, new system, and a bunch of players that don't really fit it. La Tech needs to run to be successful and Navy held a better La Tech team to only 17 yards rushing last year. All Navy has to do is win this game, and I don't see them falling short, especially after they already slipped up once in the Maryland debacle.

14 @Texas Tech +3 v Texas: I've had my eye on this one for weeks. In my opinion, Texas is a fraud, a pretender who has nobody on their team capable of making plays when the band is playing. They are forced to move to a more power running game because they don't have a QB who can run like McCoy and Vince Young did in previous years. They simply don't have any dynamic running backs or a good enough offensive line to pull it off. Also, for some reason, there aren't any dynamic receivers on the roster who can consistently perform either. Now they play on the road at Texas Tech, who has all kinds of returning talent on both sides of the ball. Also, as much as I dislike Tommy Tuberville, they guy can fashion a defense, and he knows how to knock off highly ranked teams. I'd assume he'd be especially good at knocking off top ranked teams who are frauds. Last year, a younger Tech squad walked into Austin and about knocked off Texas last year, and I don't think the disparity between these teams is anywhere close to as wide as it was last year. Tech is a tough place to play, and I think the Horns are going to shit the bed.

15 Iowa +1 @Arizona: Now that Iowa is dogged in this game, I'm on it. These two played last year, and Iowa completely dominated them..Arizona couldn't move north/south and the hawkeyes just pretty much ran over them. I think there's a good chance of that again, and Iowa will be focused in this one because they know c=going in that this is among their toughest tests of what they hope will be a great season. Lots of returning weapons for Iowa, and AZ is missing a lot on defense. I also still can't get that unmerciful beatdown AZ took from Nebraska the last time they faced a physically imposing team. Huge coaching mismatch here as well.

Others: There are a TON of games I like this week A TON. Ball St is terrible. they go to Purdue this week and are only getting 16. I would normally jump all over that, but I'm only mildly interested because Ball St might be making a move to a better Qb, and Purdue's best WR is hurt. That means they'll be even more reliant on Robert Marve, so no musing, though I like them.....Everybody is counting out Ga tech as they travel to Chapel Hill this week catching 2 at UNC. However, they will be ready to play after that debacle at kansas last week, and UNC is still missing the majority of their defense. Do you think these freshmen are going to have an easy time against Tech's option? I don't either. They'll get Tech's best effort too. You don't want to play Paul Johnson when he's mad.....Tennessee by all accounts represented themselves well at times against Oregon, most media members will tell you. However, they were administered their worst loss IN NEYLAND STADIUM HISTORY. And they legitimately played well, given the talent on that team. Although Florida has looked putrid, I think the same type of thing could happen to UT again. They look pretty good, make some decent plays., then give up a couple Urban Meyer specials and lose 42-10. I'll be on Florida -14.......Duke has a nice little offense, but it won't be evident against Alabama.(-24). I also don't know if they have the ability to stop Bama even once on offense.....Colorado st has been terrible, but they are still a Mountain West team facing a MAC team in Miami(OH)(-8) who is still living off of their tussle with Florida. Too many points.......San Diego St has potentially their best team in 10 years and has some very solid coaches on their staff. They also have nice balance on offense. They go to Mizzou(-14) to face a Tiger team that can't be too excited to play them, and frankly I wasn't impressed with how they looked against the Illini. Some danger for them in trying to cover a 14 point spread. They'll have to be at their best to cover that number in my opinion...... If Case Keenum plays, Houston(-3) should run all over UCLA....That's it for now. Hope everyone has a good week.