Believe it or not, and I think by now you can all for damn sure believe it, I went 2-11 last week. 45-57-3 now, after having a shot to get back to the positive coming into the week. Ugh. Obviously things got off to a comical start when Northwestern blew their cover in painful fashion, and when I say painful, I mean put your nuts in a vice painful. I never thought I'd see a worse beat than last years Indiana/Iowa debacle, but there it was again. I think everyone knows what happened in that game to make it a loss...I won't rehash it.
I will say this though: This was another week where the musings didn't get any breaks. In any given week, if you have a bunch of games that are coming down within a score of the spread, you expect to split them. Well, I don't expect to split them, but the average gambler should. 2 of the 13 were no brainer wins (the only 2 I won, Cal and UAB), there were 2 that pretty much were blowoput losses (Miami(Oh) courtesy of 5 first half turnovers, and North Carolina) Here are the where the other games stood down the stretch, just for fun:
Northwestern: I'm up 10, getting 6 with 13 minutes left in the game. If I'm on the favorite there, I've given up on the cover. Ends up being a loser.
Indiana: Down 29-13 after 3 getting 14.. 2 pick 6 scores against in this one. Still, with IU, great shot at a backdoor. Doesn't happen, and they lose by 30 despite outgaining Illinois by 100 yards.
Baylor: Up 47-28(laying 5.5) with 10 minutes left. Horrific series of events leads to backdoor. I said in the musing, "...I can see a 57-320 type yardage advantage here." It ended up being 683-407. Baylor was able to have a QB throw for 400+ and a RB run for 250+. Normally, when that happens, you'd expect to win by 30, let alone more than 5. That one was a joke.
LSU: Getting 6, tied at 17 with 5 minutes left. In 90% of cases like this, the game ends up being decided by a FG. Not here. 70 yard TD run. 24-17. Loss. LSU got outgained by 200+, but you assumed that would happen going in, and they'd still figure out a way to have it come down to the wire. it did, but we lost getting 6 anyway.
Iowa: After blowing a chance to go up by 10 by yakking all over themselves after a rare turnover, they can get a push if a very good defense can avoid giving up a TD in crunch time at home. No dice.
Vandy: Tied 7-7 after 3 getting +12 1/2. South Carolina gets a 72 yard TD pass with 6 minutes left to make it 21-7 after TD earlier in the period. Front door cover. It happens. I'm still waiting for one though.
Oklahoma: Lead 21-20 after 3. Is it unreasonable to think that the #1 team might put away a pretender in the 4th quarter and win by more than a FG? Certainly not. Especially if I had been on the pretender. Missouri puts together a 4th quarter unlike any in their history and takes down the Sooners.
Georgia Tech: They play to about 10% of their capacity, allow Ellington to run wild, yet still are a garbage TD away from a cover the entire 4th quarter. 4 drives in Clemson territory end with zero points. Loss.
I'm telling all of you this stuff just to make clear my reasons for telling you to fade these picks. I have a cosmic ability to channel the breaks to one side. So we need to take advantage. I realize that in a lot of cases, you'll be betting on what appears to be the "wrong side", and in many cases it turns out to be. But cashing the ticket is all that matters, baby! Plus, sometimes I make stupid picks. Might as well take advantage of that too. By the way, the turnover tally for these sad sacks was 29-15 against, and 6-1 against on Defensive/ST TDs.
Another thing: I listen to XM radio during the week when I'm driving. One of the shows I listen to is a show based in Alabama that takes calls from fans throughout the South. These people are obsessed with Boise State. I think that many of them will go on postal service type rampages if Boise ever gets into the MNC game. their argument is that Boise doesn't deserve to play in the MNC game because they play a weak schedule. They'd never make it in the SEC, etc. First, don;t give me the "SEC" argument because if they were in the SEC, Chris Peterson would have SEC players. It's apples and oranges. Second, let's play along here. Give Boise Alabama's schedule this year, which most observers contend is the toughest SEC slate this year(no Kentucky, Vandy out of the East). What would Boise do against it? Let's take a look.
San Jose St: Already did that (at SJSU though) 48-0 W
Penn St: W
@Duke W
@Arkansas: Tossup. Just like it was for Alabama.
Florida: This year? W
@South Carolina: Tossup. Depends on what Stephen garcia shows up. Just like for Alabama
Ole Miss: W
@Tennessee W
@LSU: Tossup. But the coaching matchup would be so severe, I'd have to lean Boise. Just like I'd lean to Alabama.
Mississippi St: W
Georgia St(????) W
Auburn: On the Blue turf? Lean Boise, just like I would lean to Bama at home.
Boise also got a lot of flack because they didn't completely destroy La Tech on tuesday night. They won 49-20. If Alabama had played la tech at home on tuesday night, what would the score have been? 38-7? Probably. ok.
My point is this: Yeah, a 1 loss Alabama team should probably go to the MNC game over an undefeated Boise. But you can't tell me that it's a cut and dried case and Boise is a totally inferior team to most of the SEC. If Boise was in the SEC this year, they'd probably lose 1 or 2 games. Just like Alabama.
On to this week.
1. Syracuse +10 1/2 @Cincinnati: Looking at the individual units of these teams, I can't really find any edge for one team over the other, except in a couple spots I can see an edge for the Cuse. Whatever Cincy does well on offense, Syracuse handles it on defense. Cincy also is not at all overpowering on defense, which eases some pressure on a weak but improving Syracuse offense. it's kind of an uneven situation for the Orange, since they are coming off the big win over WV and Cincy lost a home game last week, but sometimes momentum has a way of continuing in a turn-around type season. This line just came up after being off the board for awhile due to Zach Collaros's uncertain status, but I think it'll settle in at 10+ when he's cleared to play. I'd actually like Syracuse outright if he doesn't play. The Cuse actually has a big advantage on the DL/OL matchup and Cincy has been a turfadenover machine this year. It'll be tough for them to cover a DD spread at this juncture.
3. @Boston College +7 v Clemson: I've been fading Clemfadeson with no success the last couple weeks, but these assholes deserve it. They still can't do anything on offense other than hand it to Andre Ellington and hop he runs for a TD. Clemson couldn't throw the ball to save their lives against Maryland, and they weren't much better against GT last week. Right now, off of two comfortable(though they shouldn't have been) victories at home and a 2-5 BC team in front of them, they are fat and happy. They also have Nc State and FSU coming up the next two weeks, so it will take a good coaching job to avoid a letdown/lookahead situation. Enter Dabo Swinney. BC on the other hand is off a frustrating home loss to Maryland. They've struggled offensively, but have looked better the past 2 weeks, including a road trip to Tallahassee where they moved the ball pretty well with a new QB. They stop the run very well, ranking 4th in the country, and it's not a fluke, as they've stopped some good rushing attacks(VT, ND, FSU). They've got Wake, Duke, Virginia and Syracuse left on their schedule, so if they grab this one, they can still salvage their season. I think Clemson will get their best shot, so the Tigers better be planning on doing somefadething more than rolling their helmets out there.
2. Purdue +17 @Illinois: Frankly, I can't believe that this spread is so high. It's totally inflated from the results of last week, when Purdue got obliterated by Ohio St and Illinois blew out Indiana, despite being outgained by 100 yards, only totaling 287 against one of the worst defenses in the country. Statistically, these two teams are actually pretty close. Purfadedue has been ok defensively, certainly much better than Indiana. They've already beaten Northwestern on the road, and certainly will conjure up a better performance in Champaign than they did in Columbus. On the other hand, Illinois is getting comfy with themselves, have a second home game against an underwhelming opponent in a row, and might sleepwalk a bit through this one. If Purdue gets a couple of early breaks, they could easily win this game outright. You have a mad team against a fat and happy team, who are pretty similar in performance so far, and the mad team is getting 17. 17!!! Granted, the Illini are better, but they are prone to boneheadedness and are not explosive on offense, giving them less margin for error. I'd recommend a $10 money line bet for the heck of it too.
4. San Diego St -10 @Wyoming: Generally you'd hate to lay 10 with a team that has had the recent succes of SDSU, but this year is a bit different. their two losses were a last second fluke 90 yard TD pass loss at Missouri by 3, and a 3 point loss to BYU in a game that is still being investigated by the Mountain West due to a terribly blown replay call. You'll probably hear more about that pretty soon, because there are credible accusations that BYU alums rigged that process in the game. It's messy. Anyway, they've been good. Wyoming is currently ranked 119th in yards per play on offense, as usual. they are also ranked 109th in yards per pfadelay against. Double whammy. They can't score, they can't stop anyone. They're a bunch of nice kids, but it doesn't look to me like they can hang with a team that has played well all year, and appears to be very well coached with good balance. They are ranked 15th on offense and 40th on D, so big mismatches on both sides of the ball. Save some wierd circumstances, SDSU should win this one comfortably.
5. @UCF -7 1/2 v East Carolina: I normally buy spreads like this down, and I would do it here also, though I have a suspicion that it won't be necessary. ECU has really lived a charmed life this year. They are scoring points by the bushel, but yet are only 46th in ypp, 60th in rushing yards per carry and 54th in pass efficiency. They scored 44 points at Southern Miss on 338 total yards and a bunch of fluke plays. The rest of their damage has been against the likes of Memphis(110th) and Tulsa (108th). By the way, they were outgained by that pathetic Memphis team. Defensively, ECCu hasn;t stopped anyone. They are 97th in 3rd downs against, 79th in total defense. On the other hand, UCF has a great defense and an improving offense. Defensively, they completely shut down Kansas St on the road and harassed Russell Wilson into the worst game of his career earlier this year. (10/30, 105 yards). Also, UCF is treating this as the biggest game thfadeey've played at home in several years, as ECU has knocked them out of the CUSA title 3 years in a row, and the teams are currently tied in the standings. Big home game for a jacked up team that will probably be able to dominate defensively and will be facing a soft defense.
6. @Marshall -2 1/2 v UTEP: Ugh. Another CUSA game here, I know. take a look at the records (Marshall 1-6 and UTEP 5-3) and you wonder why Marshall is favored. Well, take a closer look at UTEP's schedule. They were blown out by Houston, beat the New Mexico brotherhood of feebleness(NMSU and New Mexico) and Rice at home. In their last 2 games, they have been completely non-competitive with UAB on the road, and got dominated at home by Tulane (461-286 yardage advantage). Marshall has played Ohio St, West Virginia(had them beat), and in conference, Southern Miss, East Carolina and UCF who are probably the three best teams in CUSA at this point. UTEP looks to me to be a team that must be faded here, as their team appeared to give up last week. The same guys have been plfadeaying for what seems to be forever(QB Vittatoe has been there as long as I can remember. Things have gotten stale and it appears that Mike Price has lost them a little bit. Their previous long road trips east have been disastrous for them, much like the UAB trip was last year. They've also been hammered in recent years on trips to UCF, East Carolna and Buffalo. They don't travel well back to the east. We're only looking for Marshall to win here, and Huntington is a tough place to play.
7. Michigan St +7 @Iowa: The spread has now hit 7 at Bodog, so I am going to pull the trigger. I originally was expecting to play Iowa here, but the spread came out higher than I thought. I think the chances that Iowa gets frustrated and starts wondering about themselves after last week's debacle is more likely than a pissed off scorched earth type performance. Also, MfadeSU is solid in pretty much all phases, and has the world to play for. Iowa now has 2 losses, so their season is looking more and more like a garden variety Capital One Bowl year, rather than something special. These teams are evenly matched, I like Dantofadenio and MSU has been getting the breaks. If MSU won it outright, it wouldn't surprise me in the least, so I think it's prudent to take the TD.
8. @Ole Miss +7 v Auburn: Auburn has played two road games this year, @Miss St and @ Kentucky and both of them came down to the wire as 3 point wins for Auburn. Auburn's defadeense, while not as bad as some have painted it, is certainly not good. Last week, we all saw Jordan Jefferson have success against them in the zone read option, and if he can do that, you know that Masoli can certainly do it. Ole Miss has had some nice opffensive games when matched up against lacking defenses. I think they'll fade be ok here. Also, defensively they've been pretty good against the run, neither Ingram nor Richardson had success against them in Tuscaloosa) and if you can make Newton beat you in any other way than by his own runs, that's what you want to do. The "Houston Nutt upsets people when you least expect it" story has been greatly overplayed, but it has validity. Auburn hasn't won a road game by more than 7 since 2005.
9 Utah -7 @Air Force: This is a terribly public play, which I hate doing, but this one looks like a bad matchup for the Air Force. They have several guys injured, including Jared Tew, one of their better offensive players. They are now on a 2 game losing strak and have to deal with Utah coming off some great performances. The Utes have been running the ball down people's throats and stopping the run. That's bad news for the Falcons, since they're ranked 111th against the run. If this game was played earlier in the season when the falcons were healthy, they might have a good shot in this one, but not now.
10. Michigan -3 @Penn St: You know, if I'm wrong on this one, I'll actually gladly hand over my cash, because it will mean that the DICKROD out of control locomotive to hell is still on track. However, I don't see it. Penn State handled Minnesota last week, but they are just terrible on offense. Minnesota normally gives up 7.4 yards per play(!!), Penn fade State gained 6.3. Minny gives up 5.59 per rush, Penn State got 4.7. Minnesota is among the worst in the country in 3rd down confadeversions agaisnt, Penn St went 2 for 10. Bad matchups for Michigan are teams that have some explosion on offense and can trade scores with them, and Penn State is not that team. I also am skeptical that Penn State can have success against Denard Robinson, and if they don't, they'll have to put up 30 plus to win. I'd love to see PSU win this, but I doubt it will happen.
11. @USC +7 v Oregon: The line is fluctuating between 6.5 and 7, but you can get 7 at sportsbook and bodog right now as I write this. This is another hunch, but I think Oregon is going to have a very hard time getting stops against USC, as we all know USC will have trying to get the Ducks off the field. Oregon has only played one game on the road against a legitimate outfit, and that was at Arizona St. (Tennessee and Washington State were the others). In that game, their offense morphed from an unstofadeppable juggernaut to merely a good offense, gaining 405 total yards. Defensively, they gave up 597, and I think USC might have similar offensive success, or even better as they have much better offensive personnel than Arizona St has. It's hard to cover a TD spread when you can't stop the other team, and their offense is going to lose a few MPH moving from that fade carpet up north to the grass at the Coloseum. If USC can get rolling a bit on defense, I can see them having success that we wouldn't previously fathom, having gotten used to that Duck offense in Eugene. Oregon always looks great during the season, but they have yet to prove they can escape a season unscathed. I think they are going to lose at some point, adn there's no better time for it than here. USC in a prohibitive underdog role is wierd.
others: Leaning toward Baylor +7 at Texas, since the Horns just can't get anything going on offense, regardless of how bad the D is(See Iowa St for evidence).....Florida is a dog in the Cocktail Party, and Georgia is an oveerwhelming public favorite at -3. that doesn't seem right, though I see why based on Florida's horrific offensive performances lately. Meyer is off a bye week, though, and we're still talking about a Georgia team that everyone assumed was toast only 2 weeks ago. I'll be on Florida....Cal has the statistical edge in every conceivable offensive and defensive category, but I can't overlook the fact that Cal slides at this time of year every year, and Oregon St (-3) starts kicking ass every year at this time of the year. OSu has also owned Cal since Mike Riley came back, and Cal has loofadeked retarded on the road this year in most instances. Not a musing because OSU has a terrible defense, but I'd be very surprised if cal goes into Corvalis and wins. Also lean Kentucky(+6) at Mississippi St. that team is a bunch of scrappy fighters, and Miss St is nto great in the favorite role. Much better offense with Kentucky, but better defense with MSU. Just a hunch that Kentucky pulls off the outright, as MSU believe it or not is already bowl eligible, so a loss here doesn't really change their lot in life. Kentucky is only 4-4, so a win here definitely does with Vandy and Tennessee still left to on the schedulefade.
That's it for now...have a great fadeend.
Friday, October 29, 2010
Friday, October 22, 2010
Week 8 Musings
If you read the week 7 musings verbatim, the record was 9-4, but I really can't take credit for a win on Washington, which I listed at +2, when even I got them at -1 when I put the bet in only a couple hours after I sent off the musings. So I will call it 8-4-1, which I will obviously take. That would bring the overall record to 43-46-3...approaching blind coin flip status.
In the past I've been a proponent of the Mountain West. I've always kind of liked watching the teams, the all play on grass for the most part..cool unis...I've just liked them for some reason. I've also suggested that they are just as worthy of an automatic BCS bid as the Big East, since you've had some great teams coming from there. This year, however, this is definitely not the case. Of course, we have two undefeateds in Utah and TCU, but that be a function of how bad the rest of the MWC is? Let's look at the rest of what was once a proud football league:
TCU/Utah: Very good teams. No issues here'
Air Force: A fun team with a scappy group of players. Typically overmatched by elite squads, but hey, who isn't?
BYU: Normally good, but abysmal this year. Held under 200 yards 3 times, lost convincingly to Utah St.
San Diego St: Better than normal, but haven't had a winning record since Savick was schooling people at the Calumet CC concrete slab.
Colorado St: Terrible
Wyoming: 60% of their players take the short bus to school
UNLV: They litterally don't care and try to lose.
New Mexico: If they played South Suburban College, it would be a fight to the death, but they'd probably cover as a +9 dog.
5 out of 9 teams could be constituted as terrible. Not a good year for the MountainWest. Good thing they're getting Boise, Nevada and Fresno next year.
Let"s move on to this week. Two positive weeks in a row probably do not bode well for this week. Doom, gloom, carnage, all that bullshit. But who knows.
1. @Northwestern +6 v Michigan St: You can pick out the teams that are currently undefeated that will not go undefeated. We all know you you are, so MSU, Oklahoma St, Missouri, all you pretenders step out from behind the curtain and show yourselves. Most people have MSU pegged as a probably loser next week at iowa, but that is going to be a bad spot for Iowa, since they will be coming off 2 big games(and probably wins) in a row. I think this is the week MSU goes down, or at least finds itself sweating things out. It's true that if you look at this game statistically, you'll probably be tiptoe-ing toward the MSU side so I can see why 72%(!!!) of the public likes MSU. The Cats schedule has been weak beyond weak. They struggled with and were outgained by Vandy, snuck by Minnesota by 1 and lost to a Purdue team with most of it's starters in the infirmary. But we all know that each gamefor the Cats this year has been in a role they suck at: the favorite against teams they can't really get up for. Now MSU comes in looking ahead to Iowa after 3 games that were high on everyone's radar. The Cats are coming off a bye after an embarrassing home loss against a team they will be totally amped for. I tend to think that Coach Fitz will have them ready in this environment and we will see a game out the Cats that we have not seen thus far. More of a hunch play, but I don't have a problem hitching my hopes to them in this role based on their history.
2. @Miami(OH) +3 v Ohio: To me, this appears to be the wrong team being favored here. Ohio has had a couple of nice games, but they have been home games against the dregs of the MAC. On the road they barely outgained a terrible EMU team and actually were outgained against Bowling Green a couple weeks ago at home. Miami(OH) has looked good at home and took it to CMU on the road last week. Ohio runs it good and Miami has issues stopping the run sometimes, but in this case, I think the value is in the home team against a team that shouldn't be a road favorite against a comparable team to them.
3. Indiana +14 @Illinois: Obviously I like the Illini and what they've done this year, but they are not very good in this role. They should be able to do what they like to do, which is run the ball since Indiana can't stop a soul on the ground, but I fear their ability to stop a solid spread attack through the air, which is what Indiana has. I am not sold on Nathan Scheelhaase as the Illinois QB...lots of good drives, but not a lot of TDs. If they settle for FGs in this game, they are going to have a hard time covering two TDs because I think Indiana can get some points on the board here. If the Zooker has them ready to go and they take care of business, I'll be happy and will relinquish my unit gladly. I am skeptical to say the least that they'll be able to pull it off.
4. @Iowa -6 v Wisconsin: Iowa has covered 7 out of the last 8 in this series, with the only cover being in a season where Iowa cratered and the Badgers were in a jan 1 bowl game, and even then it was on a game winning FG as time expired. Iowa can stop what Wisconsin wants to do offensively(run) and I think Scott Tolzien, though he's been ok, is prone to mistakes that might manifest themselves in this one. I also suspect that this spread might come down a bit between now and kickoff. Wisconsin is in a tough spot coming off the Ohio St win, and Iowa is a much worse matchup for them. Believe it or not, the Hawkeyes are ranked 3rd in the nation in yards per attempt, so they can throw it. I can see a relatively comfortable win for the Hwkeyes here, as we might see Wisconsin fall back into the pattern they were used to prior to the Ohio St game, which was a lot of mediocre play.
5. @Baylor -6 1/2 v Kansas St: K State has a nice record this year, but most of it has been built on the backs of some horseshit competition. Offensively, despite flashes of comptetence against home run hire Turner Gill and Kansas last week, the offense remains one dimensional. They also will have to show that they can do something against a dynamic offense, because the last time they faced a dual threat QB(Nebraska) they got embarrassed. Robert Griffin and Baylor are certainly capable of providing a competent foil in that regard. If Baylor merely slows down Daniel Thomas, I think this is an easy home win for the Bears. I can see a 570-320 type yardage advantage in this one.
6. @Cal -3 1/2 v Arizona St: I have been impressed by the Sun Devils this year, as Steven Threet has had much more of a positive impact than I expected, and their defense has been stout, but there is a lot of value incal at home in this spot. So far against BCS foes at home, cal has beaten Colorado 52-7 and UCLA 35-7, both on relatively short lines. Now they get another short line against a team admittedly better than those two, but in the same class for the most part. Also, remember that Cal is coming off a pride shattering blowout loss to USC, and ASU has played well on the road in it's last two outings. I think you'll see a reversal of that here, as Cal gets back on track in their element and wins comfortably at home.
7 Georgia Tech +5 1/2 @Clemson: I lost going against Clemson last week, but it was the right side, as they got outgained by more than 150 yards against Maryland yet still found a way to win by 24. They still cannot throw the ball, and Ga Tech is getting better on D under new DC Al Groh. We know that GT will be getting some things done on offense, I am absolutely confident that GT can win this outright. Major, MAJOR coaching advantage here as well with paul Johnson vs Dabo. If GT keeps Andre Ellington from breaking more than 1 long one, and they keep turnovers to a minimum, they should win, and it might be easy. I am very good at identifying the loser in the turnover battle though...just a reminder.
8. LSU +6 @Auburn: Either Auburn is goingto crashing to earth, or they are a charmed team. After watching the breaks they got against Arkansas, I'm thinking the latter, but there is really no reason not to take the points here, despite my absolute disdain for backing any Less Miles coached team. Auburn's offense is finally going to face a defense that matches up well with what thy want to do. They are big and they're fast, so Cam Newton might finally come across some guys who give him some boo boos when he goes plowing up the middle. Also, he almost always locks in on Darvin Adams when he throws the ball, and he'll be locked up by Patrick Peterson who will just shove his sorry ass out of the way and take it to the house in that case. Big special teams edge for LSU also. Lastly, there has been only 1 or 2 times where Jordan Jefferson has had success against a decent team, and one of them was last year against Auburn when he was 21-31 for 242 and 2 scores with no INT. Malzahn's offense only gained 187 in that one too, so I think DC John Chavis has a nice feel for what to do against this offense. The hype machine is on full blast for Cam Newton, so I think it'll come crashing down for him a bit. Again, I don't like backing Miles, but when he has meltdowns, it's usually in a tight game, so hopefully we'll cover anyway.
9. @Vandy +12 1/2 v South Carolina: Usually in this role, Vandy is a short dog, which is why they have somewhat of a weak record as a home dog, compared with a great record as a road dog(last week notwithstanding). 12.5 is more than they usually get, so I think there's value against someone who is less than an elite team, especially if Marcus Lattimore is banged up. South Carolina is in a tough spot here, needing to right the ship to reestablish themselves as the alpha dog in the SEC East after that meltdown last week. I think they can do it, but I don't think they can whoop Vandy, as the Dores have had good success against them in the past. If they do it, I'll be glad because I like South Carolina. Vandy will be in a fighting mood after getting shellacked by Georgia. I like their chances to keep it close.
10. North Carolina +6 1/2(I'd buy it to 7) @Miami(FL): The fade of Miami continues, as they are not a tough foe at home. They can't sell out that place, and they might not get 35k since everyone down there is soured on Randy Shannon. UNC has developed in the passing game, as Yates has been able to hit big throws just about every week. Also, since they have gotten their offensive miscreants back(2 RBs) they've been able to run it pretty well too. Their depth is coming back on defense, they showed that last week by completely shutting out Vagina on the road, and they are a heady bunch in the secondary, so Jacory Harris is likely to throw it to them a couple times. I think they have a great shot at the outright, so I would definitely take a TD here.
11. Oklahoma -3 @Missouri: Maybe I'm a square, but I don't see any value at all in having to almost get an outright win in order to back Missouri. I see the draw to wanting to back them in general though, because I think that Oklahoma is entirely overrated, having scared nobody on the ground, and Landry Jones does not strike fear into anyone's heart either. However, missouri hasn't even been able to come within double digits with Oklahoma when they've had better team than this, and it appears that Mizzou has built thid record against a dubious schedule, and if not for a fluke 80 yard TD pass with less than a minute left against San Diego St, they would have lost that game. They are not a contender and are going to lose, it makes allthe sense in the world that it would be here, despite Oklahoma's overrated nature. OU is going to go down soon as well, just not this week.
12. @Tennessee +17(buy it from 16.5)v Alabama: Bama is somewhat lost on offense right now, and Tennessee has the athletes to hang with them on defense. Greg McElroy has really struggled lately, and Saban appears bent on getting him out of it, as they are not just pounding people with that running game. In order to cover this, they are going to have to break out of it, and I have a hard time seeing that happening. Bama's defense has also shown lapses of coherent thought, so UT will probably catch them for a couple long plays, and Taurean Poole can run it a bit. Too many points here for Bama at this juncture.
13. UAB +20 @Mississippi St: Great spot to go against Mississippi St here, coming off their biggest win a several years. Also, it's hard for a team that cannot throw the ball to cover a big spread like this. UAB is a strange case. I like this UAB team. They have had some dominating efforts, like the one last week against a pretty good and offensively competent UTEP squad, who they outgained 500-229 and on the road against another SEC squad Tennessee who they outgained 544-287. They also beat Troy on the road. They are getting points here based on MSU's newfound competent status, and because UAB shat the bed in their last game on National TV, a blowout loss to Central Florida. However, that was "one of those games" for UAB, as they had 2 turnovers brought back to the house and another to the 5. It's a good spot for them here, and even if it wasn't they've shown the chops to hang with teams like Mississippi St. If they stop the run, they have an outside chance to catch the Mulldogs napping and spring the upset.
others: I'll have a couple bucks on Purdue +24 @Ohio St because I think Purdue is competent enough on defense to hang with Pryor and co, and I think it'll be a shit effort from the Buckeyes off their loss to Wisconsin....Also like Syracuse getting 14 at WV, if only because WV has to play yet another home game against a supposed weak sister, espcially Syracuse. If Stewart gets a good effort out of his team here, I might have to change my tune on him(no). Also, Syracuse thinks they have something going here(!!!)hardy har, so they'll be giving max effort after a beatdown from Pitt last week.....Vagina, I mean Virginia will probably beat up on Eastern Michigan, who beat ball St last week, which means nothing. 24 is the line..Virginia is only good at clubbing baby seals, and that's what they got this week....Call me a nutcase psychopath, but I'll be on Kansas again this week. Home run hire Turner Gill has to have some mystic magic up his sleeve, and A&M, a sucker for mystic magic if there ever was one, is laying 14 to them on the road. Wow. If turner can't come within 14 against the Aggies, who routinely make a career out of stepping on their dicks, maybe we might be only 99% sure that he is a heroic omniscient mastermind....That's it for this week. Sorry again for the typos. Take Care! Fade.
In the past I've been a proponent of the Mountain West. I've always kind of liked watching the teams, the all play on grass for the most part..cool unis...I've just liked them for some reason. I've also suggested that they are just as worthy of an automatic BCS bid as the Big East, since you've had some great teams coming from there. This year, however, this is definitely not the case. Of course, we have two undefeateds in Utah and TCU, but that be a function of how bad the rest of the MWC is? Let's look at the rest of what was once a proud football league:
TCU/Utah: Very good teams. No issues here'
Air Force: A fun team with a scappy group of players. Typically overmatched by elite squads, but hey, who isn't?
BYU: Normally good, but abysmal this year. Held under 200 yards 3 times, lost convincingly to Utah St.
San Diego St: Better than normal, but haven't had a winning record since Savick was schooling people at the Calumet CC concrete slab.
Colorado St: Terrible
Wyoming: 60% of their players take the short bus to school
UNLV: They litterally don't care and try to lose.
New Mexico: If they played South Suburban College, it would be a fight to the death, but they'd probably cover as a +9 dog.
5 out of 9 teams could be constituted as terrible. Not a good year for the MountainWest. Good thing they're getting Boise, Nevada and Fresno next year.
Let"s move on to this week. Two positive weeks in a row probably do not bode well for this week. Doom, gloom, carnage, all that bullshit. But who knows.
1. @Northwestern +6 v Michigan St: You can pick out the teams that are currently undefeated that will not go undefeated. We all know you you are, so MSU, Oklahoma St, Missouri, all you pretenders step out from behind the curtain and show yourselves. Most people have MSU pegged as a probably loser next week at iowa, but that is going to be a bad spot for Iowa, since they will be coming off 2 big games(and probably wins) in a row. I think this is the week MSU goes down, or at least finds itself sweating things out. It's true that if you look at this game statistically, you'll probably be tiptoe-ing toward the MSU side so I can see why 72%(!!!) of the public likes MSU. The Cats schedule has been weak beyond weak. They struggled with and were outgained by Vandy, snuck by Minnesota by 1 and lost to a Purdue team with most of it's starters in the infirmary. But we all know that each gamefor the Cats this year has been in a role they suck at: the favorite against teams they can't really get up for. Now MSU comes in looking ahead to Iowa after 3 games that were high on everyone's radar. The Cats are coming off a bye after an embarrassing home loss against a team they will be totally amped for. I tend to think that Coach Fitz will have them ready in this environment and we will see a game out the Cats that we have not seen thus far. More of a hunch play, but I don't have a problem hitching my hopes to them in this role based on their history.
2. @Miami(OH) +3 v Ohio: To me, this appears to be the wrong team being favored here. Ohio has had a couple of nice games, but they have been home games against the dregs of the MAC. On the road they barely outgained a terrible EMU team and actually were outgained against Bowling Green a couple weeks ago at home. Miami(OH) has looked good at home and took it to CMU on the road last week. Ohio runs it good and Miami has issues stopping the run sometimes, but in this case, I think the value is in the home team against a team that shouldn't be a road favorite against a comparable team to them.
3. Indiana +14 @Illinois: Obviously I like the Illini and what they've done this year, but they are not very good in this role. They should be able to do what they like to do, which is run the ball since Indiana can't stop a soul on the ground, but I fear their ability to stop a solid spread attack through the air, which is what Indiana has. I am not sold on Nathan Scheelhaase as the Illinois QB...lots of good drives, but not a lot of TDs. If they settle for FGs in this game, they are going to have a hard time covering two TDs because I think Indiana can get some points on the board here. If the Zooker has them ready to go and they take care of business, I'll be happy and will relinquish my unit gladly. I am skeptical to say the least that they'll be able to pull it off.
4. @Iowa -6 v Wisconsin: Iowa has covered 7 out of the last 8 in this series, with the only cover being in a season where Iowa cratered and the Badgers were in a jan 1 bowl game, and even then it was on a game winning FG as time expired. Iowa can stop what Wisconsin wants to do offensively(run) and I think Scott Tolzien, though he's been ok, is prone to mistakes that might manifest themselves in this one. I also suspect that this spread might come down a bit between now and kickoff. Wisconsin is in a tough spot coming off the Ohio St win, and Iowa is a much worse matchup for them. Believe it or not, the Hawkeyes are ranked 3rd in the nation in yards per attempt, so they can throw it. I can see a relatively comfortable win for the Hwkeyes here, as we might see Wisconsin fall back into the pattern they were used to prior to the Ohio St game, which was a lot of mediocre play.
5. @Baylor -6 1/2 v Kansas St: K State has a nice record this year, but most of it has been built on the backs of some horseshit competition. Offensively, despite flashes of comptetence against home run hire Turner Gill and Kansas last week, the offense remains one dimensional. They also will have to show that they can do something against a dynamic offense, because the last time they faced a dual threat QB(Nebraska) they got embarrassed. Robert Griffin and Baylor are certainly capable of providing a competent foil in that regard. If Baylor merely slows down Daniel Thomas, I think this is an easy home win for the Bears. I can see a 570-320 type yardage advantage in this one.
6. @Cal -3 1/2 v Arizona St: I have been impressed by the Sun Devils this year, as Steven Threet has had much more of a positive impact than I expected, and their defense has been stout, but there is a lot of value incal at home in this spot. So far against BCS foes at home, cal has beaten Colorado 52-7 and UCLA 35-7, both on relatively short lines. Now they get another short line against a team admittedly better than those two, but in the same class for the most part. Also, remember that Cal is coming off a pride shattering blowout loss to USC, and ASU has played well on the road in it's last two outings. I think you'll see a reversal of that here, as Cal gets back on track in their element and wins comfortably at home.
7 Georgia Tech +5 1/2 @Clemson: I lost going against Clemson last week, but it was the right side, as they got outgained by more than 150 yards against Maryland yet still found a way to win by 24. They still cannot throw the ball, and Ga Tech is getting better on D under new DC Al Groh. We know that GT will be getting some things done on offense, I am absolutely confident that GT can win this outright. Major, MAJOR coaching advantage here as well with paul Johnson vs Dabo. If GT keeps Andre Ellington from breaking more than 1 long one, and they keep turnovers to a minimum, they should win, and it might be easy. I am very good at identifying the loser in the turnover battle though...just a reminder.
8. LSU +6 @Auburn: Either Auburn is goingto crashing to earth, or they are a charmed team. After watching the breaks they got against Arkansas, I'm thinking the latter, but there is really no reason not to take the points here, despite my absolute disdain for backing any Less Miles coached team. Auburn's offense is finally going to face a defense that matches up well with what thy want to do. They are big and they're fast, so Cam Newton might finally come across some guys who give him some boo boos when he goes plowing up the middle. Also, he almost always locks in on Darvin Adams when he throws the ball, and he'll be locked up by Patrick Peterson who will just shove his sorry ass out of the way and take it to the house in that case. Big special teams edge for LSU also. Lastly, there has been only 1 or 2 times where Jordan Jefferson has had success against a decent team, and one of them was last year against Auburn when he was 21-31 for 242 and 2 scores with no INT. Malzahn's offense only gained 187 in that one too, so I think DC John Chavis has a nice feel for what to do against this offense. The hype machine is on full blast for Cam Newton, so I think it'll come crashing down for him a bit. Again, I don't like backing Miles, but when he has meltdowns, it's usually in a tight game, so hopefully we'll cover anyway.
9. @Vandy +12 1/2 v South Carolina: Usually in this role, Vandy is a short dog, which is why they have somewhat of a weak record as a home dog, compared with a great record as a road dog(last week notwithstanding). 12.5 is more than they usually get, so I think there's value against someone who is less than an elite team, especially if Marcus Lattimore is banged up. South Carolina is in a tough spot here, needing to right the ship to reestablish themselves as the alpha dog in the SEC East after that meltdown last week. I think they can do it, but I don't think they can whoop Vandy, as the Dores have had good success against them in the past. If they do it, I'll be glad because I like South Carolina. Vandy will be in a fighting mood after getting shellacked by Georgia. I like their chances to keep it close.
10. North Carolina +6 1/2(I'd buy it to 7) @Miami(FL): The fade of Miami continues, as they are not a tough foe at home. They can't sell out that place, and they might not get 35k since everyone down there is soured on Randy Shannon. UNC has developed in the passing game, as Yates has been able to hit big throws just about every week. Also, since they have gotten their offensive miscreants back(2 RBs) they've been able to run it pretty well too. Their depth is coming back on defense, they showed that last week by completely shutting out Vagina on the road, and they are a heady bunch in the secondary, so Jacory Harris is likely to throw it to them a couple times. I think they have a great shot at the outright, so I would definitely take a TD here.
11. Oklahoma -3 @Missouri: Maybe I'm a square, but I don't see any value at all in having to almost get an outright win in order to back Missouri. I see the draw to wanting to back them in general though, because I think that Oklahoma is entirely overrated, having scared nobody on the ground, and Landry Jones does not strike fear into anyone's heart either. However, missouri hasn't even been able to come within double digits with Oklahoma when they've had better team than this, and it appears that Mizzou has built thid record against a dubious schedule, and if not for a fluke 80 yard TD pass with less than a minute left against San Diego St, they would have lost that game. They are not a contender and are going to lose, it makes allthe sense in the world that it would be here, despite Oklahoma's overrated nature. OU is going to go down soon as well, just not this week.
12. @Tennessee +17(buy it from 16.5)v Alabama: Bama is somewhat lost on offense right now, and Tennessee has the athletes to hang with them on defense. Greg McElroy has really struggled lately, and Saban appears bent on getting him out of it, as they are not just pounding people with that running game. In order to cover this, they are going to have to break out of it, and I have a hard time seeing that happening. Bama's defense has also shown lapses of coherent thought, so UT will probably catch them for a couple long plays, and Taurean Poole can run it a bit. Too many points here for Bama at this juncture.
13. UAB +20 @Mississippi St: Great spot to go against Mississippi St here, coming off their biggest win a several years. Also, it's hard for a team that cannot throw the ball to cover a big spread like this. UAB is a strange case. I like this UAB team. They have had some dominating efforts, like the one last week against a pretty good and offensively competent UTEP squad, who they outgained 500-229 and on the road against another SEC squad Tennessee who they outgained 544-287. They also beat Troy on the road. They are getting points here based on MSU's newfound competent status, and because UAB shat the bed in their last game on National TV, a blowout loss to Central Florida. However, that was "one of those games" for UAB, as they had 2 turnovers brought back to the house and another to the 5. It's a good spot for them here, and even if it wasn't they've shown the chops to hang with teams like Mississippi St. If they stop the run, they have an outside chance to catch the Mulldogs napping and spring the upset.
others: I'll have a couple bucks on Purdue +24 @Ohio St because I think Purdue is competent enough on defense to hang with Pryor and co, and I think it'll be a shit effort from the Buckeyes off their loss to Wisconsin....Also like Syracuse getting 14 at WV, if only because WV has to play yet another home game against a supposed weak sister, espcially Syracuse. If Stewart gets a good effort out of his team here, I might have to change my tune on him(no). Also, Syracuse thinks they have something going here(!!!)hardy har, so they'll be giving max effort after a beatdown from Pitt last week.....Vagina, I mean Virginia will probably beat up on Eastern Michigan, who beat ball St last week, which means nothing. 24 is the line..Virginia is only good at clubbing baby seals, and that's what they got this week....Call me a nutcase psychopath, but I'll be on Kansas again this week. Home run hire Turner Gill has to have some mystic magic up his sleeve, and A&M, a sucker for mystic magic if there ever was one, is laying 14 to them on the road. Wow. If turner can't come within 14 against the Aggies, who routinely make a career out of stepping on their dicks, maybe we might be only 99% sure that he is a heroic omniscient mastermind....That's it for this week. Sorry again for the typos. Take Care! Fade.
Friday, October 15, 2010
Week 7 Musings
I think it's week 7. Anyway, 7-5-1 last week for a decent week, better than it's been, that's for sure. Up to 35-42-2 for the year. The death march to .500 continues. Again, all kinds of things going on this week, so these are going to abridged again.
The season is really shaping up to be a clusterfuck here when it comes to the BCS, good for everyone. I've lost my passion for arguing against a playoff..I guess I'll just argue against a 16 team playoff, which seems to be the flavor of the hour among the anti-BCs crowd. I really don't give a shit anymore though. At this point, now that bama needs help, it seems that Oregon and Nebraska might have pretty good shots, which is cool because I thought before the season that there was about an 80% chance that the two participants of the MNC game would come from the fivesome of Bama, Florida, Oklahoma, Texas and Ohio St. Ohio St still might get there, but they'll have to earn it with road wins against Iowa and Wisconsin. Oklahoma might still make it, but they'll have to get past Nebraska in the B12 title game. Oregon is looking good right now. I still think they have the potential to eff things up, but looking at their skedoolie, it's hard to find a loss. USC??? Good one.
Going with Cincy tonight -3 at Louisville, although Louisville has looked ok this year. I'm skeptical that their offense is for real though, because the best defense they've faced is shickingly Kentucky, and they only got 16 on them at home. Cincy is rounding into shape in my opinion.
1. Maryland +14 1/2 @ Clemson: I am not a big fan of Coach fridge and the terrapins, but sadly, I'm even less a fan of Dabo Swinney and his crew. I've been on Clemson a couple times this year, and try as I might, I can't get them to play competent offense. Their passing game is broken, and their running game is all or nothing. If they don't get a couple long runs from Andre Ellington, they are in trouble offensively. Statistically, this game is pretty even, and the teams have played pretty comparable schedules thus far. Maryland has shown a penchant for the big play with their offense, which is good because they can't convert a 3rd down to save their lives. I think Amryland can certainly hang with this Clemson outfit, especially at noon, so i'll take more than 2 TDs.
2. Vandy +14 1/2 @Georgia: Now that georgia got off the schneid against a terrible Tennessee team, I guess the thought is that they are ready to commence with whooping the rest of the teams on their schedule, and that everyone should forget about the noncompetitive game against Mississippi St or the loss to Colorado. Well, in order to do that they will have to sack up and beat two division opponents in a row like a drum. Also, in order to do that, they will have to get up to play vandy at home, which no SEC team ever does. As a result, Vandy has covered as a road conference dog 16 oout of the last 20 times they've been in that role. I will not be going against those numbers, and if the Dawgs come out and pound this pesky Vandy team, I will extend congratulations.
3. Eastern Michigan +15 1/2 @Ball St: Well, Ball State was a popular home favorite last week after their puzzling win at CMU, and what happint? they got destroyed. They are back in that role again, this time against a putrid EMU team, but I don't care. If EMU has a pulse, they should be able to come within a couple TD's of a team that is in the bottom 10 in the country without question. Liberty beat em outright at Muncie, any FBS team can beat them outright by 10. The points must be taken here. It's EMUs only conceivable chance at a win.
4. @Duke +19 1/2 v Miami: This Miami team is an enigma, and very poorly coached. Duke should have won a couple weeks ago at Maryland, and still has a nice passing atttack. Cutcliffe is coming off a bye, so he has had ample time to design a game plan, and I like his ability in this spot. Miami is likely to be sleepwalking through this game, early in the afternoon at Duke, and Duke is certainly capable of a back door even if Miami shows up, which I am skeptical about.
5. @Colorado St -3 1/2 v UNLV: I would probably buy this down to 3 to be safe, but CSU should be allright. UNLV is a team completely coming apart. Although CSU has been awful defensively, they are starting to come around, and UNLV has been completely non-competitive in their last 2 road games, a 49-10 loss at WV last week which wasn't even that close, and previously a loss to Idaho in which they mustered only 187 yards of total offense against the Vandals. CSU has beaten that same Idaho team and competed for a good portion of the game with Air Force last week on the road. Their rushing offense also woke up. Frankly, any team laying a short number like this at home against UNLV has value, so it can't be passed up. Major possible mutiny issues for UNLV under their first year coach right now.
6. Western Michigan +24 1/2 @ Notre Dame: Unfortunately for the Irish, they play to their competition. WMU is no great shakes, obviously, but they have a decent passing attack, dink and dunk style, and ND just doesn't seem to have the chops to blow people out. Witness their yardage totals in their games this year, all of them have been within 50 yards of the opponent. Not saying that this will be the case here, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if this final was 31-17. I'd love to see ND lay the wood to someone, but something twlls me it won't be here. This is the first time they've played a MAC opponent..no way they come out guns blazing, especially on a 2 game win streak. No Kyle Rudolph either.
7. Iowa -3 @Michigan: This looks like it might be the beginning , or the continuation of the downward spiral for Dick Rod. Basically, if Denard Robinson doesn't single handedly win them the game, they don't have a chance. After 2+ years of sample size, can we assume that the first two weeks this year are continuing the evidence that Michigan is more on the level of Indiana(two consecutive nail biters against them) rather than MSU and the like? Michigan did not really compete against MSU and they continue to give up big plays by the bushel. Defensively, Iowa is significantly better and more well coached than the Spartans, and they have shown some explosion on offense as Stanzi has improved. I also like their safety, Tyler Sash, who is likely to be the spy on DRob. I will be very surprised if Iowa loses here.
8. @Texas Tech -3 v Oklahoma St: Oklahoma St is one of the biggest frauds of recent memory, at least as far as 5-0 teams go. They've played nobody, but still managed to almost lose to troy, had to rally and get a bunch of turnovers to handle La La(who Georgia destroyed 55-7), and gave up 500+ yards to Texas A&M and the greatly confused Jerod Johnson, who can barely complete 50% of his passes anymore. Tech had a nice bounce back last week, and we all know how tough it is to play in Lubbock. I originally had Okie St pegged as a last place team in this division, and I still think they are closer to that than they are to a top echelon club. Even when they were good, they had fetal position issues on the road. Big value here on Tech.
9 @Virginia +7 v North Carolina: You'll have to buy it if you bet it now, (unless you have Bodog0 but probably not by tomorrow. North Carolina is slowly getting their guys back from suspension, but not on the defensive side. This remains a fragile team that really should not be favored on the road against decent conference opponents. Virginia is ready to take a positive step, and they might as well do it against a team they've owned over the years. UVA has won 8 of the last 10 against UNC and covered 9 of the last 10. In most of those games, they were the underdog, inclusing a 13 point win at Chapel hill last year as a 12 point dog. UNC will likely have some issues scoring, and are coming off 3 consecutive wins and covers, so they are due for the proverbial clunker.
10. @Wisconsin +4 v Ohio State: The common thread this week from most who have opined about this game is that Wisconsin is overated this year. I would agree with that based on the results so far, but I would also say that I think Ohio St is a bit overrated as well. Their only road game was a completely uninspiring effort against Illinois, and to be fair, the Illini look a tad better than we thought, but take away a couple long runs by Pryor in that game, and they did a whole lot of nothing for 4 quarters in Champaign. The rest of their schedule has been underwhelming, as we see what miami is at this point. There's no doubt that we'll see the best that Wisconsin has to offer in this one, and the Badgers are capable of moving the ball with much more consistency than Illinois is. Also, Ohio State will have to do more than rope a dope the game away on offense...Pryor will have to make plays with both his feet and his arm in this one, so we'll see if his hamstring is healthy, and you can bet that Wisconsin won't drop the 2 or 3 balls he's going to throw to them like Illinois and Indiana did. Also, it's unlikely that the underwhelming duo of Herron and Saine will have any more success than they have in other big games. I just think the time is right for Ohio St to drop one, and I get 4 points in case the Buckeyes sneak out on a late FG.
11. @Florida -8 v Mississippi St: This is the square bet of the century, but there is just too much value to pass this up, though Ii'll be rooting for the Mulldogs to pull off the outright. That's probably wishful thinking though, because I don't think Mullen has the horses on offense to pull it off. Florida continues to be fade material until they stop stepping on their schlongs offensively, but you have to remember that LSU beat MSU 29-7 a few weeks ago with 264 total yards of offense. Even if MSU plays very well, they could lose by 17, after a couple knowing Urban Meyer glances. Way too much value here on Florida against a team with very shaky ball handlers and almost no offensive firepower, despite their recent success.
12. Ole Miss +21 @Alabama: (Buy it up). I would like this one even more if it wasn't a night game. This is more of a hunch play, but Ole Miss has been quietly getting better lately, especially on offense as Masoli ingratiates himself to the Rebs offense. They've scored 55 and 42 in the last two weeks, and Bama showed themselves to be human last week against South Carolina. People are still laughing and pointing at Ole Miss for their early foibles, so I can see the Rebs hanging around, and 21 is a lot of points in an SEC game.
13. @Washington +2 v Oregon St: The world is on Oregon St. and I can see why someone would want to fade Washington, given their defensive performance this year. However, why would you be so sure to lay points on the road against a good offense when your team is ranked 99th in total defense, 103rd against the pass and 118th in 3rd down conversions against? Oregon St is coming off a surprising victory against Arizona, but can they find the antidote for a second week in a row? I like Mike Riley, but I also like Sarkisian, and I think he can find some success against that Oregon St D at home.
14. @Hawaii +6 1/2 v Nevada: It's always tough to go against Nevada, especially when they have had some breakthrough success this year, but this is always a tough trip, and Hawaii is proving to be a formidable opponent. It's true that Nevada has improved from helpless to competent against the pass, but we don't know a whole lot because they haven't played what can be called a solid passing attack. cal is ok, but they are more of a running team , and the rest of the schedule contains terrible passing attacks, BYU(yep, check the numbers, they're awful), Colorado St, UNLV and San Jose St. Last year, a much worse Hawaii squad walked into Reno and played the Wolf Pack to a standstill, now they get them at home. I think this is Nevada's only chance to get upended before they finish with Boise, and I wouldn't be surprised if it happened. Hawaii is ranked #$1 in the country in passing yards, and 10th in efficiency, so if Nevada truly has improved on D, they can prove it here. I'm guessing that several thousand miles from home, they won't.
OTHERS: I decided to lay off on the musing, but I have a hunch that Arkansas(+4) knocks off Auburn. Auburn has had trouble against the pass, and they've played no attacks like the Hogs and Bobby Petrino....I atopped laying big points with these assholes a long time ago, but Southern Miss(-15) should manhandle Memphis, who is atrocious....I lean to Missouri(+3.5) at Texas A&M until Jerod Johnson gets out of the Maijuana cloud he's been living in for the past 7 weeks. Pretty good defense thus far for Missouri, and A&M's passable defensive numbers are skewed by the competition....Bowling Green has proven themselves to be among the worst teams in FBS, and Temple can run it down their throat just as well as everybody else and their mothers have all year, but -20 is a lot though for a challenged offensive team, so no musing.....I really think the possibility is there for Nebraska to lay a mythical beating on Texas, but Texas is too good on defense to lay down like Washington or K State did to the Huskers...9.5 is a bit much for me, but I'll probably have a unit on it anyway for fun, since I'll be rooting for the new Big Ten guys.....BYU really is that bad...TCU(-29) should lay a whoopin on them again. They would have covered that spread at BYU last year, no reason to think they won't again this year in Fort Worth...I think South carolina will beat Kentucky (-4.5) because they own the Wildcats, but the letdown situation, even though it's been played out ad nauseum is still there. I will say this though....Alshon Jeffrery and Marcus Lattimore could be texting their girlfriends pictures of their junk in the huddle and they'd still be focused enough to blow by this Kentucky defense.
That's it for this week. Good Luck!!!!!!
The season is really shaping up to be a clusterfuck here when it comes to the BCS, good for everyone. I've lost my passion for arguing against a playoff..I guess I'll just argue against a 16 team playoff, which seems to be the flavor of the hour among the anti-BCs crowd. I really don't give a shit anymore though. At this point, now that bama needs help, it seems that Oregon and Nebraska might have pretty good shots, which is cool because I thought before the season that there was about an 80% chance that the two participants of the MNC game would come from the fivesome of Bama, Florida, Oklahoma, Texas and Ohio St. Ohio St still might get there, but they'll have to earn it with road wins against Iowa and Wisconsin. Oklahoma might still make it, but they'll have to get past Nebraska in the B12 title game. Oregon is looking good right now. I still think they have the potential to eff things up, but looking at their skedoolie, it's hard to find a loss. USC??? Good one.
Going with Cincy tonight -3 at Louisville, although Louisville has looked ok this year. I'm skeptical that their offense is for real though, because the best defense they've faced is shickingly Kentucky, and they only got 16 on them at home. Cincy is rounding into shape in my opinion.
1. Maryland +14 1/2 @ Clemson: I am not a big fan of Coach fridge and the terrapins, but sadly, I'm even less a fan of Dabo Swinney and his crew. I've been on Clemson a couple times this year, and try as I might, I can't get them to play competent offense. Their passing game is broken, and their running game is all or nothing. If they don't get a couple long runs from Andre Ellington, they are in trouble offensively. Statistically, this game is pretty even, and the teams have played pretty comparable schedules thus far. Maryland has shown a penchant for the big play with their offense, which is good because they can't convert a 3rd down to save their lives. I think Amryland can certainly hang with this Clemson outfit, especially at noon, so i'll take more than 2 TDs.
2. Vandy +14 1/2 @Georgia: Now that georgia got off the schneid against a terrible Tennessee team, I guess the thought is that they are ready to commence with whooping the rest of the teams on their schedule, and that everyone should forget about the noncompetitive game against Mississippi St or the loss to Colorado. Well, in order to do that they will have to sack up and beat two division opponents in a row like a drum. Also, in order to do that, they will have to get up to play vandy at home, which no SEC team ever does. As a result, Vandy has covered as a road conference dog 16 oout of the last 20 times they've been in that role. I will not be going against those numbers, and if the Dawgs come out and pound this pesky Vandy team, I will extend congratulations.
3. Eastern Michigan +15 1/2 @Ball St: Well, Ball State was a popular home favorite last week after their puzzling win at CMU, and what happint? they got destroyed. They are back in that role again, this time against a putrid EMU team, but I don't care. If EMU has a pulse, they should be able to come within a couple TD's of a team that is in the bottom 10 in the country without question. Liberty beat em outright at Muncie, any FBS team can beat them outright by 10. The points must be taken here. It's EMUs only conceivable chance at a win.
4. @Duke +19 1/2 v Miami: This Miami team is an enigma, and very poorly coached. Duke should have won a couple weeks ago at Maryland, and still has a nice passing atttack. Cutcliffe is coming off a bye, so he has had ample time to design a game plan, and I like his ability in this spot. Miami is likely to be sleepwalking through this game, early in the afternoon at Duke, and Duke is certainly capable of a back door even if Miami shows up, which I am skeptical about.
5. @Colorado St -3 1/2 v UNLV: I would probably buy this down to 3 to be safe, but CSU should be allright. UNLV is a team completely coming apart. Although CSU has been awful defensively, they are starting to come around, and UNLV has been completely non-competitive in their last 2 road games, a 49-10 loss at WV last week which wasn't even that close, and previously a loss to Idaho in which they mustered only 187 yards of total offense against the Vandals. CSU has beaten that same Idaho team and competed for a good portion of the game with Air Force last week on the road. Their rushing offense also woke up. Frankly, any team laying a short number like this at home against UNLV has value, so it can't be passed up. Major possible mutiny issues for UNLV under their first year coach right now.
6. Western Michigan +24 1/2 @ Notre Dame: Unfortunately for the Irish, they play to their competition. WMU is no great shakes, obviously, but they have a decent passing attack, dink and dunk style, and ND just doesn't seem to have the chops to blow people out. Witness their yardage totals in their games this year, all of them have been within 50 yards of the opponent. Not saying that this will be the case here, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if this final was 31-17. I'd love to see ND lay the wood to someone, but something twlls me it won't be here. This is the first time they've played a MAC opponent..no way they come out guns blazing, especially on a 2 game win streak. No Kyle Rudolph either.
7. Iowa -3 @Michigan: This looks like it might be the beginning , or the continuation of the downward spiral for Dick Rod. Basically, if Denard Robinson doesn't single handedly win them the game, they don't have a chance. After 2+ years of sample size, can we assume that the first two weeks this year are continuing the evidence that Michigan is more on the level of Indiana(two consecutive nail biters against them) rather than MSU and the like? Michigan did not really compete against MSU and they continue to give up big plays by the bushel. Defensively, Iowa is significantly better and more well coached than the Spartans, and they have shown some explosion on offense as Stanzi has improved. I also like their safety, Tyler Sash, who is likely to be the spy on DRob. I will be very surprised if Iowa loses here.
8. @Texas Tech -3 v Oklahoma St: Oklahoma St is one of the biggest frauds of recent memory, at least as far as 5-0 teams go. They've played nobody, but still managed to almost lose to troy, had to rally and get a bunch of turnovers to handle La La(who Georgia destroyed 55-7), and gave up 500+ yards to Texas A&M and the greatly confused Jerod Johnson, who can barely complete 50% of his passes anymore. Tech had a nice bounce back last week, and we all know how tough it is to play in Lubbock. I originally had Okie St pegged as a last place team in this division, and I still think they are closer to that than they are to a top echelon club. Even when they were good, they had fetal position issues on the road. Big value here on Tech.
9 @Virginia +7 v North Carolina: You'll have to buy it if you bet it now, (unless you have Bodog0 but probably not by tomorrow. North Carolina is slowly getting their guys back from suspension, but not on the defensive side. This remains a fragile team that really should not be favored on the road against decent conference opponents. Virginia is ready to take a positive step, and they might as well do it against a team they've owned over the years. UVA has won 8 of the last 10 against UNC and covered 9 of the last 10. In most of those games, they were the underdog, inclusing a 13 point win at Chapel hill last year as a 12 point dog. UNC will likely have some issues scoring, and are coming off 3 consecutive wins and covers, so they are due for the proverbial clunker.
10. @Wisconsin +4 v Ohio State: The common thread this week from most who have opined about this game is that Wisconsin is overated this year. I would agree with that based on the results so far, but I would also say that I think Ohio St is a bit overrated as well. Their only road game was a completely uninspiring effort against Illinois, and to be fair, the Illini look a tad better than we thought, but take away a couple long runs by Pryor in that game, and they did a whole lot of nothing for 4 quarters in Champaign. The rest of their schedule has been underwhelming, as we see what miami is at this point. There's no doubt that we'll see the best that Wisconsin has to offer in this one, and the Badgers are capable of moving the ball with much more consistency than Illinois is. Also, Ohio State will have to do more than rope a dope the game away on offense...Pryor will have to make plays with both his feet and his arm in this one, so we'll see if his hamstring is healthy, and you can bet that Wisconsin won't drop the 2 or 3 balls he's going to throw to them like Illinois and Indiana did. Also, it's unlikely that the underwhelming duo of Herron and Saine will have any more success than they have in other big games. I just think the time is right for Ohio St to drop one, and I get 4 points in case the Buckeyes sneak out on a late FG.
11. @Florida -8 v Mississippi St: This is the square bet of the century, but there is just too much value to pass this up, though Ii'll be rooting for the Mulldogs to pull off the outright. That's probably wishful thinking though, because I don't think Mullen has the horses on offense to pull it off. Florida continues to be fade material until they stop stepping on their schlongs offensively, but you have to remember that LSU beat MSU 29-7 a few weeks ago with 264 total yards of offense. Even if MSU plays very well, they could lose by 17, after a couple knowing Urban Meyer glances. Way too much value here on Florida against a team with very shaky ball handlers and almost no offensive firepower, despite their recent success.
12. Ole Miss +21 @Alabama: (Buy it up). I would like this one even more if it wasn't a night game. This is more of a hunch play, but Ole Miss has been quietly getting better lately, especially on offense as Masoli ingratiates himself to the Rebs offense. They've scored 55 and 42 in the last two weeks, and Bama showed themselves to be human last week against South Carolina. People are still laughing and pointing at Ole Miss for their early foibles, so I can see the Rebs hanging around, and 21 is a lot of points in an SEC game.
13. @Washington +2 v Oregon St: The world is on Oregon St. and I can see why someone would want to fade Washington, given their defensive performance this year. However, why would you be so sure to lay points on the road against a good offense when your team is ranked 99th in total defense, 103rd against the pass and 118th in 3rd down conversions against? Oregon St is coming off a surprising victory against Arizona, but can they find the antidote for a second week in a row? I like Mike Riley, but I also like Sarkisian, and I think he can find some success against that Oregon St D at home.
14. @Hawaii +6 1/2 v Nevada: It's always tough to go against Nevada, especially when they have had some breakthrough success this year, but this is always a tough trip, and Hawaii is proving to be a formidable opponent. It's true that Nevada has improved from helpless to competent against the pass, but we don't know a whole lot because they haven't played what can be called a solid passing attack. cal is ok, but they are more of a running team , and the rest of the schedule contains terrible passing attacks, BYU(yep, check the numbers, they're awful), Colorado St, UNLV and San Jose St. Last year, a much worse Hawaii squad walked into Reno and played the Wolf Pack to a standstill, now they get them at home. I think this is Nevada's only chance to get upended before they finish with Boise, and I wouldn't be surprised if it happened. Hawaii is ranked #$1 in the country in passing yards, and 10th in efficiency, so if Nevada truly has improved on D, they can prove it here. I'm guessing that several thousand miles from home, they won't.
OTHERS: I decided to lay off on the musing, but I have a hunch that Arkansas(+4) knocks off Auburn. Auburn has had trouble against the pass, and they've played no attacks like the Hogs and Bobby Petrino....I atopped laying big points with these assholes a long time ago, but Southern Miss(-15) should manhandle Memphis, who is atrocious....I lean to Missouri(+3.5) at Texas A&M until Jerod Johnson gets out of the Maijuana cloud he's been living in for the past 7 weeks. Pretty good defense thus far for Missouri, and A&M's passable defensive numbers are skewed by the competition....Bowling Green has proven themselves to be among the worst teams in FBS, and Temple can run it down their throat just as well as everybody else and their mothers have all year, but -20 is a lot though for a challenged offensive team, so no musing.....I really think the possibility is there for Nebraska to lay a mythical beating on Texas, but Texas is too good on defense to lay down like Washington or K State did to the Huskers...9.5 is a bit much for me, but I'll probably have a unit on it anyway for fun, since I'll be rooting for the new Big Ten guys.....BYU really is that bad...TCU(-29) should lay a whoopin on them again. They would have covered that spread at BYU last year, no reason to think they won't again this year in Fort Worth...I think South carolina will beat Kentucky (-4.5) because they own the Wildcats, but the letdown situation, even though it's been played out ad nauseum is still there. I will say this though....Alshon Jeffrery and Marcus Lattimore could be texting their girlfriends pictures of their junk in the huddle and they'd still be focused enough to blow by this Kentucky defense.
That's it for this week. Good Luck!!!!!!
Saturday, October 9, 2010
Week 6 Musings
As I complained on the early week email, we're in the tank this year. 28-37 is the record, but as I mentioned, fading should be considered.
We were all treated to one of the most fantastic "Battle of the Stupids" in a long time last week when Derrek Dooley and Less Miles locked horns in Baton Rouge. I would have assumed that the LSU/West Virginia game could not be topped in terms of combined coaching dipshit-ness, but Dooley is a fast rising star among the "they'd be homeless and destitiute if it wasn't for football" crowd. I guess that when guys get big SEC jobs, their skulls protrude and their IQ plummets, because I had no idea that Dooley was capable of one-upping Less Miles in stupidity. We live and learn.
I'm not going to be heavily involved with the games tonight, but I am going to have a small amount on Rutgers +5 as a home dog over UCONN. UCONN just can't be trusted as a favorite, as I have been burned on them in that role many times. Rutgers is getting value here because of the embarrassment of losing at home to Tulane of all people last week. However, their defense has been good this year so far, and Schiano normally fashions a scrappy D. UCONN on the other hand has been more porous than one would think, so I am skeptical that they can score enough to cover 5 on the road. As for Okie St/ LaLa, whatever...
By the way...always glad to see a headline like this: http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/colleges/texastech/stories/100610tubfire.16397a8a6.html
1. Western Michigan +5 @Ball St: Why I continue to insert the ramrod which is the MAC into my rectum every week I can't explain, but there's value in this one. Ball St is a team that in recent weeks has lost outright at home to Liberty and was outgained in a game by 450 yards. Granted, the opponent was Iowa, but come on. Last week, (and I'm still having a hard time believing that this actually happened)they went on the road and hammered Central Michigan, previously though to be among the better teams in the MAC. After the game, when questioned how this happened, Ball St coach Stan Parrish said, "I don't know, I guess I did a better job of calling the plays." Sure you did coach. So he has no clue either. The MAC does things like that sometimes. Now Ball State is immediately installed as a siginifcant favorite over another team that has routinely cleaned their clock, Western Michigan. WMU has had their own issues this yearm, including an alarmingly non-competitive home loss last week to Idaho, but we'll be seeing a team fired up to prove itself again vs a team that has come home to Muncie very proud of itself. The MAC teaches us to not believe results week to week, so I think Ball State will turn back into what they are and struggle in the favorite's role.
2. Baylor +2 v Texas Tech: This game is being played at teh Cotton Bowl in Dallas, which in my opinion makes it a game to go with. I'm very happy to report(as mentioned above) that Tommy Tuberville is under some duress immediately at Texas tech, mostly due to his team's inconceivable performance at Iowa St last week. They gave up 52 points to iowa State. There were some wierd breaks(naturally, since it was a musing) and goofy bounces, but 52 points? No excuse. They were down 24-0, so it's not like they came in ready to play. Now they face Baylor, who is fresh off a 55 point 678 yard molestation of Kansas and the immortal Turner Gill. If Art Briles can do that to a team coached by the greatest coach the college football media has ever seen, what can he do to Tubbs and Co? Seriously, Baylor with a healthy Robert Griffin has been a legit squad, and as I've mentioned, Art Briles is a favorite of mine. Since Briles has been there, both of their games(even in Lubbock last year with the impotent Blake Szymanski at QB) with Tech have gone down to the wire as statistical dead heats. Those were worse baylor teams, and better Tech teams than this one(at this point anyway) Now Baylor gets Tech with a new coaching staff and all their guns blazing. They'll be out for blood, and Tech is somewhat in turmoil. Like Baylor + here.
3. @Notre Dame -6 v Pitt: Generally, I don't like ND in cases like this, but I think Pitt is a very comparabel team to the BC squad they pretty much dominated last week on the road. Also, Brian Kelly is very familiar with Wanny and his song and dance, so the Irish will likely be well prepared. Pitt has had success running the ball against weaker squads, and Ray Graham might be a better alternative than Dion Lewis, but their offiensive line is a weakness against legit teams and Tino Sunseri remains challenged at throwing downfield. Brian kelly is too good of a coach for ND to struggle here. i think the Irish get another substantial victory.
4. @Michigan -4 1/2 v Michigan St: The way Michigan is playing offense right now, I think there is value in getting them at less than a TD in this one. It's true that MSU has also looked good offensively and we all know that Michigan has issues on defense, but I think they will play their best defensive game of the year at home against the Spartans. Michigan State still appears at times to have no clue what they're doing on defense, and that will be a problem for them in this one. The public also is all over the Spartans here, apparently just waiting for the other shoe to drop for Dick Rod. I think he's got trouble on the horizon when he faces a balanced team on the road who can play some defense, but I am skeptical of MSU's ability to put up much resistence against Shoelace. If it was more than a TD, I'd be leery of laying with that defense, but Im comfortable at this number, and there's a chance that Michigan runs away and hides if they get some breaks.
5. Arkansas -5 1/2 v Texas A&M: This game is at Jerry's world, so no HFA here for anyone. What we have here is a matchup of mostlikely the second best team in the SEC against a middle of the pack Big 12 squad. I like the Aggies this year, but Jerod Johnson has been making a ton of mistakes, so much so in fact that there has been some calls to bench him in the local media. I think that's silly, but it's true he has been mistake prone, and Arkansas's defense has been appreciably better than A&M's. A&M will probably move the ball, but I see some empty possessions due to mistakes, and they won't be able to make any of those if they want to hang with the Hogs offense here. Although they are coming off a heartbreaker to Bama, Arkansas showed they can play the best team in the country to a standstill...I tthink Arkansas is the better team here, so I'll lay what looks to be a short number.
6. @Cal -7 v UCLA: You might have to buy it down to 7, because it's 7.5 in some spots, but it's currently 7 at bodog and some others. UCLA is still living large on their win over Texas, and the profits in fading them started last week when WAZZOU cashed in as a 24 point dog. In that game, WAZZOU actually punched in a score to take a 7 point lead in the 4th quarter, only to have it reversed and then miss a FG. UCLA went on to punch in a TD then get a garbage score, but you get the point, they had to fight for their lives against WAZZOU at home. UCLA is ranked dead last in passer rating, and it's not even close. They passed for only 123 yards in their last game, and naturally, WAZZOU is 109th against the pass even after their game with UCLA. Basically, UCLA has to run it to be successful. Cal, as we should all know if very tough at home. Just ask Colorado, a 54-6 victim in week 3, and a pretty acceptable comp to UCLA. Cal is averaging only 3.45 per carry against in the run game, and that includes a game with Nevada, the best rushing attack in the country. Cal is on a 2 game losing strak, they need this game bad, and i'm sure they'll give UCLA more of a top effort than the Bruins deserve.
7. Alabama -7 @South Carolina: Defensively, South Carolina is 83rd against the pass and 46th against the run. They are going to have to do better than that if they want to hang with bama, who really looks like they are far and away the best team in the country. They've proven that as the game goes on they continue to get stronger, and if they can avoid some of the doldrums they started the Arkansas game with, they'll win this one going away in my opinion. I like South Carolina as a team, and I think they'll end up in a Jan 1 bowl game, but there are just too many things wrong with them to hang with bama. Garcia remains mistake prone, their offensive line has not been very good, and they have been just average on defense, culminating in their complete collapse in the second half at Auburn. They might hang for awhile, but Bama will wear them down. I see a 31-16 type game here.
8. @Louisiana Tech -1 v Utah St: Although this is a new coaching staff, I think Sonny Dykes(LT coach) is well respected, having run Arizona's offense since they've been good and an assistant under Mike Leach before that. Also, LT has a history of playing very well at home. This year they have a couple losses, but they hung with navy for most of the game and lost by a point to Southern Miss. Lt is one of those teams that will improve week to week as they get used to the new schemes, and they have plenty of guys back from the Dooley teams that were very compettive. Utah State is in a terrible spot, coming off what is probably one of the best wins in school history, and it was over a BYU team that is a mess right now. It's a very tough road trip for Utah State, and although they've looked great in a couple games this year, they've also showed some bad sides too, like in their 41-7 loss on the road at San Diego St. La tech has also faced all kinds of tough competition, and definitely drop some in class here. I think Utah St is a bit overvalued, so I'll take my chances with the good home team against a team that has lost 19 of it's last 22 on the road.
9. Utah -6 @Iowa St: Although Iowa St had a nice game against Texas Tech last week, they still got outgained, as they do just about every week. If you take a look at their results this year, they've gained less yeards than their opponents usually give up every week, and given up more yards then their opponents usually gain each week. the exact opposite is true with Utah. Basically, I think Utah is the much better team here. Also keep in mind that you have Whittingham coming off a bye week and ISU coming off an emotional win with Oklahoma on deck.
10. Purdue +9 @Northwestern: Pat Fitzgerald is 2-11 as a home favorite in his tenure. He's been a great coach for the Cats, and they remain a fantastic underdog, but for whatever reason, they continuously fail in this role. Purdue has been ravaged by injury, as almost all of their offensive leaders are now injured for the year. That group includes pretty boy Robert Marve, and that actually might not be a bad thing. The backup Rob henry has gotten some playing time, and now has had a bye week to get himself ready. having weatched Northwestern this year, they are definitely not a team that will routinely blow people out, as they are methodical on offense and a little light on defense. I think Purdue will sack up in the meantime as well.
11. Auburn -6 @Kentucky: Lots of action on Kentucky in this game, but I thik they are walking into a bad matchup. Auburn is 8th in the country in yards per play, first in passer rating(Cam Newton) and 11th in yards per carry. Kentucky, since they've been playing real teams, has given up 48 to a mediocre Florida offense and 42 to Ole Miss, who had issues moving the ball on Tulane. Hell, they gave up 184 yards rushing and almost 6 yards a pop to Western Kentucky's running back. Overall, they are 85th against the run. They have to hope for Auburn's worst performance on both sides of the ball to compete in this one. I like it even more now that the line has shrunk to 6.
12. @Florida -7 v LSU : Talk about a bubble being ready to burst. LSU is going to lose their first game, and it probably won't be pretty. The chances of them being able to score points on offense is very slim. Very very slim. If they get to 10 points, I'll be surprised. Florida's offense isn't great either, but they'll be motivated, national TV night game against a name opponent who doesn't deserve the accolades. it all adds up to a tough night for Less and co.
13. Florida St +6 @Miami: Florida State has quietly had a very nice season on defense, ranked 8th in YPP, and that's not against a bunch of pansies. They also are near the top of the country in 3d conversions. I've been beating this drum for awhile, but I'm not sold on Miami. harris still throws bad picks, and it will likely catch up to him on the big stage this week. FSU leads the country in sacks per game at 5, so Jacory will be running around again, and will probably be harrassed into more mistakes. I like the Noles here.
others: Like Arizona to put the wood to what I think is an overrated Oregon State team then let down on the road next week....they are laying 8...Also likeSan Diego St as a road favorite at BYU (-5) believe it or not. BYU is that bad. SDSU has been very solid this year. I'm also going to take a whirl and take the points with Indiana, because I think their offense is for real and can stay on the field long enough to stay within 25 at Ohio St. That's it...sorry for the typos...don't have time to spell check.
We were all treated to one of the most fantastic "Battle of the Stupids" in a long time last week when Derrek Dooley and Less Miles locked horns in Baton Rouge. I would have assumed that the LSU/West Virginia game could not be topped in terms of combined coaching dipshit-ness, but Dooley is a fast rising star among the "they'd be homeless and destitiute if it wasn't for football" crowd. I guess that when guys get big SEC jobs, their skulls protrude and their IQ plummets, because I had no idea that Dooley was capable of one-upping Less Miles in stupidity. We live and learn.
I'm not going to be heavily involved with the games tonight, but I am going to have a small amount on Rutgers +5 as a home dog over UCONN. UCONN just can't be trusted as a favorite, as I have been burned on them in that role many times. Rutgers is getting value here because of the embarrassment of losing at home to Tulane of all people last week. However, their defense has been good this year so far, and Schiano normally fashions a scrappy D. UCONN on the other hand has been more porous than one would think, so I am skeptical that they can score enough to cover 5 on the road. As for Okie St/ LaLa, whatever...
By the way...always glad to see a headline like this: http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/colleges/texastech/stories/100610tubfire.16397a8a6.html
1. Western Michigan +5 @Ball St: Why I continue to insert the ramrod which is the MAC into my rectum every week I can't explain, but there's value in this one. Ball St is a team that in recent weeks has lost outright at home to Liberty and was outgained in a game by 450 yards. Granted, the opponent was Iowa, but come on. Last week, (and I'm still having a hard time believing that this actually happened)they went on the road and hammered Central Michigan, previously though to be among the better teams in the MAC. After the game, when questioned how this happened, Ball St coach Stan Parrish said, "I don't know, I guess I did a better job of calling the plays." Sure you did coach. So he has no clue either. The MAC does things like that sometimes. Now Ball State is immediately installed as a siginifcant favorite over another team that has routinely cleaned their clock, Western Michigan. WMU has had their own issues this yearm, including an alarmingly non-competitive home loss last week to Idaho, but we'll be seeing a team fired up to prove itself again vs a team that has come home to Muncie very proud of itself. The MAC teaches us to not believe results week to week, so I think Ball State will turn back into what they are and struggle in the favorite's role.
2. Baylor +2 v Texas Tech: This game is being played at teh Cotton Bowl in Dallas, which in my opinion makes it a game to go with. I'm very happy to report(as mentioned above) that Tommy Tuberville is under some duress immediately at Texas tech, mostly due to his team's inconceivable performance at Iowa St last week. They gave up 52 points to iowa State. There were some wierd breaks(naturally, since it was a musing) and goofy bounces, but 52 points? No excuse. They were down 24-0, so it's not like they came in ready to play. Now they face Baylor, who is fresh off a 55 point 678 yard molestation of Kansas and the immortal Turner Gill. If Art Briles can do that to a team coached by the greatest coach the college football media has ever seen, what can he do to Tubbs and Co? Seriously, Baylor with a healthy Robert Griffin has been a legit squad, and as I've mentioned, Art Briles is a favorite of mine. Since Briles has been there, both of their games(even in Lubbock last year with the impotent Blake Szymanski at QB) with Tech have gone down to the wire as statistical dead heats. Those were worse baylor teams, and better Tech teams than this one(at this point anyway) Now Baylor gets Tech with a new coaching staff and all their guns blazing. They'll be out for blood, and Tech is somewhat in turmoil. Like Baylor + here.
3. @Notre Dame -6 v Pitt: Generally, I don't like ND in cases like this, but I think Pitt is a very comparabel team to the BC squad they pretty much dominated last week on the road. Also, Brian Kelly is very familiar with Wanny and his song and dance, so the Irish will likely be well prepared. Pitt has had success running the ball against weaker squads, and Ray Graham might be a better alternative than Dion Lewis, but their offiensive line is a weakness against legit teams and Tino Sunseri remains challenged at throwing downfield. Brian kelly is too good of a coach for ND to struggle here. i think the Irish get another substantial victory.
4. @Michigan -4 1/2 v Michigan St: The way Michigan is playing offense right now, I think there is value in getting them at less than a TD in this one. It's true that MSU has also looked good offensively and we all know that Michigan has issues on defense, but I think they will play their best defensive game of the year at home against the Spartans. Michigan State still appears at times to have no clue what they're doing on defense, and that will be a problem for them in this one. The public also is all over the Spartans here, apparently just waiting for the other shoe to drop for Dick Rod. I think he's got trouble on the horizon when he faces a balanced team on the road who can play some defense, but I am skeptical of MSU's ability to put up much resistence against Shoelace. If it was more than a TD, I'd be leery of laying with that defense, but Im comfortable at this number, and there's a chance that Michigan runs away and hides if they get some breaks.
5. Arkansas -5 1/2 v Texas A&M: This game is at Jerry's world, so no HFA here for anyone. What we have here is a matchup of mostlikely the second best team in the SEC against a middle of the pack Big 12 squad. I like the Aggies this year, but Jerod Johnson has been making a ton of mistakes, so much so in fact that there has been some calls to bench him in the local media. I think that's silly, but it's true he has been mistake prone, and Arkansas's defense has been appreciably better than A&M's. A&M will probably move the ball, but I see some empty possessions due to mistakes, and they won't be able to make any of those if they want to hang with the Hogs offense here. Although they are coming off a heartbreaker to Bama, Arkansas showed they can play the best team in the country to a standstill...I tthink Arkansas is the better team here, so I'll lay what looks to be a short number.
6. @Cal -7 v UCLA: You might have to buy it down to 7, because it's 7.5 in some spots, but it's currently 7 at bodog and some others. UCLA is still living large on their win over Texas, and the profits in fading them started last week when WAZZOU cashed in as a 24 point dog. In that game, WAZZOU actually punched in a score to take a 7 point lead in the 4th quarter, only to have it reversed and then miss a FG. UCLA went on to punch in a TD then get a garbage score, but you get the point, they had to fight for their lives against WAZZOU at home. UCLA is ranked dead last in passer rating, and it's not even close. They passed for only 123 yards in their last game, and naturally, WAZZOU is 109th against the pass even after their game with UCLA. Basically, UCLA has to run it to be successful. Cal, as we should all know if very tough at home. Just ask Colorado, a 54-6 victim in week 3, and a pretty acceptable comp to UCLA. Cal is averaging only 3.45 per carry against in the run game, and that includes a game with Nevada, the best rushing attack in the country. Cal is on a 2 game losing strak, they need this game bad, and i'm sure they'll give UCLA more of a top effort than the Bruins deserve.
7. Alabama -7 @South Carolina: Defensively, South Carolina is 83rd against the pass and 46th against the run. They are going to have to do better than that if they want to hang with bama, who really looks like they are far and away the best team in the country. They've proven that as the game goes on they continue to get stronger, and if they can avoid some of the doldrums they started the Arkansas game with, they'll win this one going away in my opinion. I like South Carolina as a team, and I think they'll end up in a Jan 1 bowl game, but there are just too many things wrong with them to hang with bama. Garcia remains mistake prone, their offensive line has not been very good, and they have been just average on defense, culminating in their complete collapse in the second half at Auburn. They might hang for awhile, but Bama will wear them down. I see a 31-16 type game here.
8. @Louisiana Tech -1 v Utah St: Although this is a new coaching staff, I think Sonny Dykes(LT coach) is well respected, having run Arizona's offense since they've been good and an assistant under Mike Leach before that. Also, LT has a history of playing very well at home. This year they have a couple losses, but they hung with navy for most of the game and lost by a point to Southern Miss. Lt is one of those teams that will improve week to week as they get used to the new schemes, and they have plenty of guys back from the Dooley teams that were very compettive. Utah State is in a terrible spot, coming off what is probably one of the best wins in school history, and it was over a BYU team that is a mess right now. It's a very tough road trip for Utah State, and although they've looked great in a couple games this year, they've also showed some bad sides too, like in their 41-7 loss on the road at San Diego St. La tech has also faced all kinds of tough competition, and definitely drop some in class here. I think Utah St is a bit overvalued, so I'll take my chances with the good home team against a team that has lost 19 of it's last 22 on the road.
9. Utah -6 @Iowa St: Although Iowa St had a nice game against Texas Tech last week, they still got outgained, as they do just about every week. If you take a look at their results this year, they've gained less yeards than their opponents usually give up every week, and given up more yards then their opponents usually gain each week. the exact opposite is true with Utah. Basically, I think Utah is the much better team here. Also keep in mind that you have Whittingham coming off a bye week and ISU coming off an emotional win with Oklahoma on deck.
10. Purdue +9 @Northwestern: Pat Fitzgerald is 2-11 as a home favorite in his tenure. He's been a great coach for the Cats, and they remain a fantastic underdog, but for whatever reason, they continuously fail in this role. Purdue has been ravaged by injury, as almost all of their offensive leaders are now injured for the year. That group includes pretty boy Robert Marve, and that actually might not be a bad thing. The backup Rob henry has gotten some playing time, and now has had a bye week to get himself ready. having weatched Northwestern this year, they are definitely not a team that will routinely blow people out, as they are methodical on offense and a little light on defense. I think Purdue will sack up in the meantime as well.
11. Auburn -6 @Kentucky: Lots of action on Kentucky in this game, but I thik they are walking into a bad matchup. Auburn is 8th in the country in yards per play, first in passer rating(Cam Newton) and 11th in yards per carry. Kentucky, since they've been playing real teams, has given up 48 to a mediocre Florida offense and 42 to Ole Miss, who had issues moving the ball on Tulane. Hell, they gave up 184 yards rushing and almost 6 yards a pop to Western Kentucky's running back. Overall, they are 85th against the run. They have to hope for Auburn's worst performance on both sides of the ball to compete in this one. I like it even more now that the line has shrunk to 6.
12. @Florida -7 v LSU : Talk about a bubble being ready to burst. LSU is going to lose their first game, and it probably won't be pretty. The chances of them being able to score points on offense is very slim. Very very slim. If they get to 10 points, I'll be surprised. Florida's offense isn't great either, but they'll be motivated, national TV night game against a name opponent who doesn't deserve the accolades. it all adds up to a tough night for Less and co.
13. Florida St +6 @Miami: Florida State has quietly had a very nice season on defense, ranked 8th in YPP, and that's not against a bunch of pansies. They also are near the top of the country in 3d conversions. I've been beating this drum for awhile, but I'm not sold on Miami. harris still throws bad picks, and it will likely catch up to him on the big stage this week. FSU leads the country in sacks per game at 5, so Jacory will be running around again, and will probably be harrassed into more mistakes. I like the Noles here.
others: Like Arizona to put the wood to what I think is an overrated Oregon State team then let down on the road next week....they are laying 8...Also likeSan Diego St as a road favorite at BYU (-5) believe it or not. BYU is that bad. SDSU has been very solid this year. I'm also going to take a whirl and take the points with Indiana, because I think their offense is for real and can stay on the field long enough to stay within 25 at Ohio St. That's it...sorry for the typos...don't have time to spell check.
Saturday, October 2, 2010
I believe I am done with this shit
After having just watched NC State piss away a win, then a push, and lose on a front door cover against the greatest of odds for the 10 thousandth time, I have to consider getting the hell out of doing this. I can't even count how many bullshit situations happened today, after tons last week, and the week before that, and the week before that, etc. The Indiana/Iowa game last year, etc.
VT scores 34 second half points. NC State leads by 2 in the final minute. can I hope in my widest dreams that a team I bet on can actually sack up and only give up a field goal and lose? Of course not. Can I at least take the fortunate push when the automatic 2 pt conversion try fails? Of course not. Wilson throws a pick, returned to the 6 yard line. Does VT take a knee and end the game? No. Will a team I lay points with who gets down 17-0 ever come back to cover? HELL NO!!!!
I lost count on how many special teams or fluke defensive TDs my teams gave up today, and I'm still waiting for my first on a team I bet on. Every week, it's the same shit. I probably need to just be done with this.
VT scores 34 second half points. NC State leads by 2 in the final minute. can I hope in my widest dreams that a team I bet on can actually sack up and only give up a field goal and lose? Of course not. Can I at least take the fortunate push when the automatic 2 pt conversion try fails? Of course not. Wilson throws a pick, returned to the 6 yard line. Does VT take a knee and end the game? No. Will a team I lay points with who gets down 17-0 ever come back to cover? HELL NO!!!!
I lost count on how many special teams or fluke defensive TDs my teams gave up today, and I'm still waiting for my first on a team I bet on. Every week, it's the same shit. I probably need to just be done with this.
Week 5 Musings
Unfortunately, very limited time this week, so I apologize for the abridged version. Last week started great, limped to the finish, ended up 6-7. That brings the yearly total to 23-27 after the 5-10 debacle the week before. Several bad beats, but whatever. I promise that I will post evidence of any lucky wins. haven't had one in about 12 years. Like I said, when it happens, I'll be sure to document. Maybe this week. BBBWWWWWWAAAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
1. @Clemson +3 v Miami(FL): I think I'm one of the few people that remains unsold on this Miami team. They way Pitt played against them last week, they seriously should have won by 60 points. Although they turned it on late in the game, they were screwing around with those queers for 3 quarters, and Jacory Harris found new ways to throw picks. Now everyone assumes they'll beat a Clemson team that really needs this game for their collective psyche. At home, they remain a tough out, despite Dabo Swinney's asshole-ish presence there. Defensively, they are a step up for Miami to deal with, and they have a solid QB and a good running game. I like getting points in that scenario.
2. Kent St -3 @Miami(OH): Don't particularly like taking road favorites in the MAC, but I feel the need to pass this one on to you, despite the fact that the line has moved 6 points(!!!). Kent opened up +3, which I played on Monday. I really should get these out earlier, but I don't think anyone plays games that early in the week. Miami(OH) remains a bit of a fraud, totally mistake prone on offense and weak on defense. Kent has proven that they can stop much better offenses than this, havng already held Penn State and Boston College to almost nothing in the run game. believe it or not, despite playing those two, who both have very solid running backs, they are allowing only 1.8 yards per rush, 2nd in the nation, and are 1st in yards allowed per game. They'll need to improve some on offense, but they should win this game based on their defense alone.
3. Navy +10 @Air Force: In this game, with all the running, you absolutely have to take the points if both of the teams involved are solid. Also, for whatever reason, navy has owned AF lately(won and covered 7 in a row, 5 as an outight dog and 9 out of 10), so that cannot be discounted. Everyone knows that AF has looked good this year, with their win over BYU and a very close one with Oklahoma, but in this game, you throw all that out the window and realize that you have two team who will try to grind each other into sawdust and 10 points for either side is a gift. This is a must play on the money line because this is a 50/50 proposition straight up. Take the benefit of the inflated line based on previous results. Even if it loses, there is no doubt that +10 is the right side in this game. It might even be the right side if the opponent was Army.
4. @LSU -16 1/2 v Tennessee: You will all think I am crazy on this one, and I actually question my own sanity here, but hear me out. Tennessee, unfortunately for them, is possibly the worst team in the SEC. Yes, the worst. Worse than Vandy, worse than Ole Miss, even worse than Georgia. Last week they were outgained by UAB 544-287. UA fuckin B dominated these guys. New QB, new coach, no experience, and they've shown it. Also, don't forget that these terrible performances have all come at home. Now they go on the road with all this baggage and will face a great defense. I see no reason to believe that they will score at all if LSU cares to stop them. Even though LSU's offense is a total Mickey Mouse operation, they've figured out ways to score points on better outfits than this. I know I'm counting on Less Miles to not poop himself, but i can easily see a 34-7 game here....maybe worse.
5. Oklahoma -3.5 v Texas: Texas is coming off a horrifically embarrassing loss to UCLA at home, so Oklahoma will get their best effort. Unfortunately, that won't mean dick because they suck ass. Oklahoma also will probably put forth their best effort, having almost lost to three teams that had no business even being in the game with. They've played one game in which people had questions about whether they'd win(FSU), and they wiped the field with them. Texas can't run the ball, they really can't pass, and now I question whther they can stop an offense like Ou's. 3.5 points is value here. If Texas sacks up, good for them, but Mack Brown looks desperate, and I think he's got good reason for it.
6. Wisconsin -2 @ Michigan St: This is more of a fade of MSU than anything, because they have a big look ahead to michigan next week. In the past, they've gotten the shakes in situations luike this, when things start promising. Dantonio hasn't been at full strength this week, and won't be on the sidelines...I think that will be a problem for them. Also, I think Wisconsin can do everything that MSU can do offensively and they have the much better defense. MSU can't cover anyone, and I think that will be the difference in this one. Wisconsin is averaging 10 yards per attempt, good for 5th in the country.
7. Michigan -10 @ Indiana: Someone is going to have to explain to me how Indiana will be able to ever get off the field on defense in this one. Hell, I'd doubt they could even if you only gave Michigan 3 downs. So far this year, IU has played Towson, Western KY and Ack ron. They are ranked 61st in 3d conversions against. If you took their games against Indiana away, WKU and Akron are converting third downs at 27%. that would be good for 114th in the country. Iu should be in the top 10 in that category if they were worth a shit. Also, they've somehow allowed 5.1 yards per carry against those teams, good for 95th nationally. how in the world are they going to be able to stop Shoelace? The over/under on how many times they tackle him should be set at about 9.5. I'll be very surprised if they keep Michigan under 50. It's true that IU has an underrated offense and should be able to put some points up here, but they better be reasy to score 40+ if they want to hang in this one. Play the over as well.
8. Washington St +27 @UCLA: I got this at 28, but the lines are all over the place on this one. Apparently 24 in some spots but both Bodog and bet Us(who I use) have them at 27 still so hurry up. UCLA is in a perfect go against spot here coming off the Texas game. They threw for 27 yards in that game by the way. They still stink to high heaven on offense, so WAZZOU might be able to hold them under 40. WAZZOU has actually looked better on offense, and I am almost positive that UCLA will have a shit effort in this one...how can they not coming off their game of the century? Don't be surprised if it's a 22-13 type game or something.
9. @NC State +4 v VT: Was there any doubt? I'm back hoplessly in love with Russell Wilson. VT has come back with two wins in a row after the loss to James Madison, but don't be fooled. BC actually was in that game more than you think, and a rash of defensive scores led to the comfy win against ECU. Asking them to win at NC State when the Wolfpack is playing this well will be a tall order. Wilson will get his, and their defense has been pressuring people like crazy. Likely no Ryan Williams for VT either.
10. Florida Atlantic +22 @USF: I'm trying to figure out what the draw to USF is. They've gotten pummelled by Florida when the Gaytors were trying to keep them in the game, and they've gotten past Stony Brook and Western kentucky(the latter by a score of 24-12). FAU is coming off a terrible game against North texas, but they are better than that...a good offense and a motivational edge.
11. Duke +8 1/2 @Maryland: Very erisky, because Duke can't stop anyone, but Maryland is pretty good at stopping themselves, and are due for a clunker. Duke is also due to a good game, because they are coming off an embarrassing effort against Army. A closer look at that one reveals a bunch of bad breaks that had them behind the 8 ball. they remain a capable offense and I have faith that Cutcliffe will get a good effort out of them against a Maryland team that wil only be mildly interested.
12. Texas Tech -7 @ Iowa St: Public play, but TT should roll here. Iowa St has never been able to stop that attack and TT's defense is good as well. Iowa St is loving itself because of a nice effort agaisnt Northern iowa. Whatever. Boom goes the dynamite.
13. Stanford +7 @Oregon: Stanford has been too good to not take 7 with them here. I'd probably take the 7 if they were playing Bama as well. Oregon gave up almost 60 yard last week to Arizona St and needed 7 turnovers to sneak out of there with a win. They can be had on defense, and Stanford is the kind of team to do it. Oregon also struggles with physical teams....wow...meet your worst nightmare Ducks. All day with the 7.
14. Florida +7 1/2 @Alabama: I will not taunt Urban Meyer here. can you imagine the carnage he would unleash if I laid 7+ against him. i will not do that, even if I'm unsure about his offense.
15 @Iowa -7 v Penn St: Ferentz owns this PSU staff, and I don't think PSU is very good, even on defense. I think Iowa has a chance to make a statement and blow out the Nitts here. I'll be very surprised if Penn St can muster a significant attack in this one, and I won't be surprised if iowa lays 30+ on them.
others: Like FIU to hang within 18 of the dorks from Pittsburgh.....Liked Central Michigan -16.5 earlier in the week v Ball St, but the line is now at 19, so not as much.....I think UVA can hang with Florida St as a home dog of 7, since FSU is due for a bad effort....I'll be fading Auburn as a 35 point fave against Lou-Mon, since they are likely to drop dead of exhaustion after their last 2 weeks. Also skeptical that Idaho can cover at Western Michigan as a 4 point favorite. WMU is better than their results have shown. Take care!
1. @Clemson +3 v Miami(FL): I think I'm one of the few people that remains unsold on this Miami team. They way Pitt played against them last week, they seriously should have won by 60 points. Although they turned it on late in the game, they were screwing around with those queers for 3 quarters, and Jacory Harris found new ways to throw picks. Now everyone assumes they'll beat a Clemson team that really needs this game for their collective psyche. At home, they remain a tough out, despite Dabo Swinney's asshole-ish presence there. Defensively, they are a step up for Miami to deal with, and they have a solid QB and a good running game. I like getting points in that scenario.
2. Kent St -3 @Miami(OH): Don't particularly like taking road favorites in the MAC, but I feel the need to pass this one on to you, despite the fact that the line has moved 6 points(!!!). Kent opened up +3, which I played on Monday. I really should get these out earlier, but I don't think anyone plays games that early in the week. Miami(OH) remains a bit of a fraud, totally mistake prone on offense and weak on defense. Kent has proven that they can stop much better offenses than this, havng already held Penn State and Boston College to almost nothing in the run game. believe it or not, despite playing those two, who both have very solid running backs, they are allowing only 1.8 yards per rush, 2nd in the nation, and are 1st in yards allowed per game. They'll need to improve some on offense, but they should win this game based on their defense alone.
3. Navy +10 @Air Force: In this game, with all the running, you absolutely have to take the points if both of the teams involved are solid. Also, for whatever reason, navy has owned AF lately(won and covered 7 in a row, 5 as an outight dog and 9 out of 10), so that cannot be discounted. Everyone knows that AF has looked good this year, with their win over BYU and a very close one with Oklahoma, but in this game, you throw all that out the window and realize that you have two team who will try to grind each other into sawdust and 10 points for either side is a gift. This is a must play on the money line because this is a 50/50 proposition straight up. Take the benefit of the inflated line based on previous results. Even if it loses, there is no doubt that +10 is the right side in this game. It might even be the right side if the opponent was Army.
4. @LSU -16 1/2 v Tennessee: You will all think I am crazy on this one, and I actually question my own sanity here, but hear me out. Tennessee, unfortunately for them, is possibly the worst team in the SEC. Yes, the worst. Worse than Vandy, worse than Ole Miss, even worse than Georgia. Last week they were outgained by UAB 544-287. UA fuckin B dominated these guys. New QB, new coach, no experience, and they've shown it. Also, don't forget that these terrible performances have all come at home. Now they go on the road with all this baggage and will face a great defense. I see no reason to believe that they will score at all if LSU cares to stop them. Even though LSU's offense is a total Mickey Mouse operation, they've figured out ways to score points on better outfits than this. I know I'm counting on Less Miles to not poop himself, but i can easily see a 34-7 game here....maybe worse.
5. Oklahoma -3.5 v Texas: Texas is coming off a horrifically embarrassing loss to UCLA at home, so Oklahoma will get their best effort. Unfortunately, that won't mean dick because they suck ass. Oklahoma also will probably put forth their best effort, having almost lost to three teams that had no business even being in the game with. They've played one game in which people had questions about whether they'd win(FSU), and they wiped the field with them. Texas can't run the ball, they really can't pass, and now I question whther they can stop an offense like Ou's. 3.5 points is value here. If Texas sacks up, good for them, but Mack Brown looks desperate, and I think he's got good reason for it.
6. Wisconsin -2 @ Michigan St: This is more of a fade of MSU than anything, because they have a big look ahead to michigan next week. In the past, they've gotten the shakes in situations luike this, when things start promising. Dantonio hasn't been at full strength this week, and won't be on the sidelines...I think that will be a problem for them. Also, I think Wisconsin can do everything that MSU can do offensively and they have the much better defense. MSU can't cover anyone, and I think that will be the difference in this one. Wisconsin is averaging 10 yards per attempt, good for 5th in the country.
7. Michigan -10 @ Indiana: Someone is going to have to explain to me how Indiana will be able to ever get off the field on defense in this one. Hell, I'd doubt they could even if you only gave Michigan 3 downs. So far this year, IU has played Towson, Western KY and Ack ron. They are ranked 61st in 3d conversions against. If you took their games against Indiana away, WKU and Akron are converting third downs at 27%. that would be good for 114th in the country. Iu should be in the top 10 in that category if they were worth a shit. Also, they've somehow allowed 5.1 yards per carry against those teams, good for 95th nationally. how in the world are they going to be able to stop Shoelace? The over/under on how many times they tackle him should be set at about 9.5. I'll be very surprised if they keep Michigan under 50. It's true that IU has an underrated offense and should be able to put some points up here, but they better be reasy to score 40+ if they want to hang in this one. Play the over as well.
8. Washington St +27 @UCLA: I got this at 28, but the lines are all over the place on this one. Apparently 24 in some spots but both Bodog and bet Us(who I use) have them at 27 still so hurry up. UCLA is in a perfect go against spot here coming off the Texas game. They threw for 27 yards in that game by the way. They still stink to high heaven on offense, so WAZZOU might be able to hold them under 40. WAZZOU has actually looked better on offense, and I am almost positive that UCLA will have a shit effort in this one...how can they not coming off their game of the century? Don't be surprised if it's a 22-13 type game or something.
9. @NC State +4 v VT: Was there any doubt? I'm back hoplessly in love with Russell Wilson. VT has come back with two wins in a row after the loss to James Madison, but don't be fooled. BC actually was in that game more than you think, and a rash of defensive scores led to the comfy win against ECU. Asking them to win at NC State when the Wolfpack is playing this well will be a tall order. Wilson will get his, and their defense has been pressuring people like crazy. Likely no Ryan Williams for VT either.
10. Florida Atlantic +22 @USF: I'm trying to figure out what the draw to USF is. They've gotten pummelled by Florida when the Gaytors were trying to keep them in the game, and they've gotten past Stony Brook and Western kentucky(the latter by a score of 24-12). FAU is coming off a terrible game against North texas, but they are better than that...a good offense and a motivational edge.
11. Duke +8 1/2 @Maryland: Very erisky, because Duke can't stop anyone, but Maryland is pretty good at stopping themselves, and are due for a clunker. Duke is also due to a good game, because they are coming off an embarrassing effort against Army. A closer look at that one reveals a bunch of bad breaks that had them behind the 8 ball. they remain a capable offense and I have faith that Cutcliffe will get a good effort out of them against a Maryland team that wil only be mildly interested.
12. Texas Tech -7 @ Iowa St: Public play, but TT should roll here. Iowa St has never been able to stop that attack and TT's defense is good as well. Iowa St is loving itself because of a nice effort agaisnt Northern iowa. Whatever. Boom goes the dynamite.
13. Stanford +7 @Oregon: Stanford has been too good to not take 7 with them here. I'd probably take the 7 if they were playing Bama as well. Oregon gave up almost 60 yard last week to Arizona St and needed 7 turnovers to sneak out of there with a win. They can be had on defense, and Stanford is the kind of team to do it. Oregon also struggles with physical teams....wow...meet your worst nightmare Ducks. All day with the 7.
14. Florida +7 1/2 @Alabama: I will not taunt Urban Meyer here. can you imagine the carnage he would unleash if I laid 7+ against him. i will not do that, even if I'm unsure about his offense.
15 @Iowa -7 v Penn St: Ferentz owns this PSU staff, and I don't think PSU is very good, even on defense. I think Iowa has a chance to make a statement and blow out the Nitts here. I'll be very surprised if Penn St can muster a significant attack in this one, and I won't be surprised if iowa lays 30+ on them.
others: Like FIU to hang within 18 of the dorks from Pittsburgh.....Liked Central Michigan -16.5 earlier in the week v Ball St, but the line is now at 19, so not as much.....I think UVA can hang with Florida St as a home dog of 7, since FSU is due for a bad effort....I'll be fading Auburn as a 35 point fave against Lou-Mon, since they are likely to drop dead of exhaustion after their last 2 weeks. Also skeptical that Idaho can cover at Western Michigan as a 4 point favorite. WMU is better than their results have shown. Take care!
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