Week 6 Musings

As I complained on the early week email, we're in the tank this year. 28-37 is the record, but as I mentioned, fading should be considered.

We were all treated to one of the most fantastic "Battle of the Stupids" in a long time last week when Derrek Dooley and Less Miles locked horns in Baton Rouge. I would have assumed that the LSU/West Virginia game could not be topped in terms of combined coaching dipshit-ness, but Dooley is a fast rising star among the "they'd be homeless and destitiute if it wasn't for football" crowd. I guess that when guys get big SEC jobs, their skulls protrude and their IQ plummets, because I had no idea that Dooley was capable of one-upping Less Miles in stupidity. We live and learn.


I'm not going to be heavily involved with the games tonight, but I am going to have a small amount on Rutgers +5 as a home dog over UCONN. UCONN just can't be trusted as a favorite, as I have been burned on them in that role many times. Rutgers is getting value here because of the embarrassment of losing at home to Tulane of all people last week. However, their defense has been good this year so far, and Schiano normally fashions a scrappy D. UCONN on the other hand has been more porous than one would think, so I am skeptical that they can score enough to cover 5 on the road. As for Okie St/ LaLa, whatever...

By the way...always glad to see a headline like this: http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/colleges/texastech/stories/100610tubfire.16397a8a6.html

1. Western Michigan +5 @Ball St: Why I continue to insert the ramrod which is the MAC into my rectum every week I can't explain, but there's value in this one. Ball St is a team that in recent weeks has lost outright at home to Liberty and was outgained in a game by 450 yards. Granted, the opponent was Iowa, but come on. Last week, (and I'm still having a hard time believing that this actually happened)they went on the road and hammered Central Michigan, previously though to be among the better teams in the MAC. After the game, when questioned how this happened, Ball St coach Stan Parrish said, "I don't know, I guess I did a better job of calling the plays." Sure you did coach. So he has no clue either. The MAC does things like that sometimes. Now Ball State is immediately installed as a siginifcant favorite over another team that has routinely cleaned their clock, Western Michigan. WMU has had their own issues this yearm, including an alarmingly non-competitive home loss last week to Idaho, but we'll be seeing a team fired up to prove itself again vs a team that has come home to Muncie very proud of itself. The MAC teaches us to not believe results week to week, so I think Ball State will turn back into what they are and struggle in the favorite's role.

2. Baylor +2 v Texas Tech: This game is being played at teh Cotton Bowl in Dallas, which in my opinion makes it a game to go with. I'm very happy to report(as mentioned above) that Tommy Tuberville is under some duress immediately at Texas tech, mostly due to his team's inconceivable performance at Iowa St last week. They gave up 52 points to iowa State. There were some wierd breaks(naturally, since it was a musing) and goofy bounces, but 52 points? No excuse. They were down 24-0, so it's not like they came in ready to play. Now they face Baylor, who is fresh off a 55 point 678 yard molestation of Kansas and the immortal Turner Gill. If Art Briles can do that to a team coached by the greatest coach the college football media has ever seen, what can he do to Tubbs and Co? Seriously, Baylor with a healthy Robert Griffin has been a legit squad, and as I've mentioned, Art Briles is a favorite of mine. Since Briles has been there, both of their games(even in Lubbock last year with the impotent Blake Szymanski at QB) with Tech have gone down to the wire as statistical dead heats. Those were worse baylor teams, and better Tech teams than this one(at this point anyway) Now Baylor gets Tech with a new coaching staff and all their guns blazing. They'll be out for blood, and Tech is somewhat in turmoil. Like Baylor + here.

3. @Notre Dame -6 v Pitt: Generally, I don't like ND in cases like this, but I think Pitt is a very comparabel team to the BC squad they pretty much dominated last week on the road. Also, Brian Kelly is very familiar with Wanny and his song and dance, so the Irish will likely be well prepared. Pitt has had success running the ball against weaker squads, and Ray Graham might be a better alternative than Dion Lewis, but their offiensive line is a weakness against legit teams and Tino Sunseri remains challenged at throwing downfield. Brian kelly is too good of a coach for ND to struggle here. i think the Irish get another substantial victory.

4. @Michigan -4 1/2 v Michigan St: The way Michigan is playing offense right now, I think there is value in getting them at less than a TD in this one. It's true that MSU has also looked good offensively and we all know that Michigan has issues on defense, but I think they will play their best defensive game of the year at home against the Spartans. Michigan State still appears at times to have no clue what they're doing on defense, and that will be a problem for them in this one. The public also is all over the Spartans here, apparently just waiting for the other shoe to drop for Dick Rod. I think he's got trouble on the horizon when he faces a balanced team on the road who can play some defense, but I am skeptical of MSU's ability to put up much resistence against Shoelace. If it was more than a TD, I'd be leery of laying with that defense, but Im comfortable at this number, and there's a chance that Michigan runs away and hides if they get some breaks.

5. Arkansas -5 1/2 v Texas A&M: This game is at Jerry's world, so no HFA here for anyone. What we have here is a matchup of mostlikely the second best team in the SEC against a middle of the pack Big 12 squad. I like the Aggies this year, but Jerod Johnson has been making a ton of mistakes, so much so in fact that there has been some calls to bench him in the local media. I think that's silly, but it's true he has been mistake prone, and Arkansas's defense has been appreciably better than A&M's. A&M will probably move the ball, but I see some empty possessions due to mistakes, and they won't be able to make any of those if they want to hang with the Hogs offense here. Although they are coming off a heartbreaker to Bama, Arkansas showed they can play the best team in the country to a standstill...I tthink Arkansas is the better team here, so I'll lay what looks to be a short number.

6. @Cal -7 v UCLA: You might have to buy it down to 7, because it's 7.5 in some spots, but it's currently 7 at bodog and some others. UCLA is still living large on their win over Texas, and the profits in fading them started last week when WAZZOU cashed in as a 24 point dog. In that game, WAZZOU actually punched in a score to take a 7 point lead in the 4th quarter, only to have it reversed and then miss a FG. UCLA went on to punch in a TD then get a garbage score, but you get the point, they had to fight for their lives against WAZZOU at home. UCLA is ranked dead last in passer rating, and it's not even close. They passed for only 123 yards in their last game, and naturally, WAZZOU is 109th against the pass even after their game with UCLA. Basically, UCLA has to run it to be successful. Cal, as we should all know if very tough at home. Just ask Colorado, a 54-6 victim in week 3, and a pretty acceptable comp to UCLA. Cal is averaging only 3.45 per carry against in the run game, and that includes a game with Nevada, the best rushing attack in the country. Cal is on a 2 game losing strak, they need this game bad, and i'm sure they'll give UCLA more of a top effort than the Bruins deserve.

7. Alabama -7 @South Carolina: Defensively, South Carolina is 83rd against the pass and 46th against the run. They are going to have to do better than that if they want to hang with bama, who really looks like they are far and away the best team in the country. They've proven that as the game goes on they continue to get stronger, and if they can avoid some of the doldrums they started the Arkansas game with, they'll win this one going away in my opinion. I like South Carolina as a team, and I think they'll end up in a Jan 1 bowl game, but there are just too many things wrong with them to hang with bama. Garcia remains mistake prone, their offensive line has not been very good, and they have been just average on defense, culminating in their complete collapse in the second half at Auburn. They might hang for awhile, but Bama will wear them down. I see a 31-16 type game here.

8. @Louisiana Tech -1 v Utah St: Although this is a new coaching staff, I think Sonny Dykes(LT coach) is well respected, having run Arizona's offense since they've been good and an assistant under Mike Leach before that. Also, LT has a history of playing very well at home. This year they have a couple losses, but they hung with navy for most of the game and lost by a point to Southern Miss. Lt is one of those teams that will improve week to week as they get used to the new schemes, and they have plenty of guys back from the Dooley teams that were very compettive. Utah State is in a terrible spot, coming off what is probably one of the best wins in school history, and it was over a BYU team that is a mess right now. It's a very tough road trip for Utah State, and although they've looked great in a couple games this year, they've also showed some bad sides too, like in their 41-7 loss on the road at San Diego St. La tech has also faced all kinds of tough competition, and definitely drop some in class here. I think Utah St is a bit overvalued, so I'll take my chances with the good home team against a team that has lost 19 of it's last 22 on the road.

9. Utah -6 @Iowa St: Although Iowa St had a nice game against Texas Tech last week, they still got outgained, as they do just about every week. If you take a look at their results this year, they've gained less yeards than their opponents usually give up every week, and given up more yards then their opponents usually gain each week. the exact opposite is true with Utah. Basically, I think Utah is the much better team here. Also keep in mind that you have Whittingham coming off a bye week and ISU coming off an emotional win with Oklahoma on deck.

10. Purdue +9 @Northwestern: Pat Fitzgerald is 2-11 as a home favorite in his tenure. He's been a great coach for the Cats, and they remain a fantastic underdog, but for whatever reason, they continuously fail in this role. Purdue has been ravaged by injury, as almost all of their offensive leaders are now injured for the year. That group includes pretty boy Robert Marve, and that actually might not be a bad thing. The backup Rob henry has gotten some playing time, and now has had a bye week to get himself ready. having weatched Northwestern this year, they are definitely not a team that will routinely blow people out, as they are methodical on offense and a little light on defense. I think Purdue will sack up in the meantime as well.

11. Auburn -6 @Kentucky: Lots of action on Kentucky in this game, but I thik they are walking into a bad matchup. Auburn is 8th in the country in yards per play, first in passer rating(Cam Newton) and 11th in yards per carry. Kentucky, since they've been playing real teams, has given up 48 to a mediocre Florida offense and 42 to Ole Miss, who had issues moving the ball on Tulane. Hell, they gave up 184 yards rushing and almost 6 yards a pop to Western Kentucky's running back. Overall, they are 85th against the run. They have to hope for Auburn's worst performance on both sides of the ball to compete in this one. I like it even more now that the line has shrunk to 6.

12. @Florida -7 v LSU : Talk about a bubble being ready to burst. LSU is going to lose their first game, and it probably won't be pretty. The chances of them being able to score points on offense is very slim. Very very slim. If they get to 10 points, I'll be surprised. Florida's offense isn't great either, but they'll be motivated, national TV night game against a name opponent who doesn't deserve the accolades. it all adds up to a tough night for Less and co.

13. Florida St +6 @Miami: Florida State has quietly had a very nice season on defense, ranked 8th in YPP, and that's not against a bunch of pansies. They also are near the top of the country in 3d conversions. I've been beating this drum for awhile, but I'm not sold on Miami. harris still throws bad picks, and it will likely catch up to him on the big stage this week. FSU leads the country in sacks per game at 5, so Jacory will be running around again, and will probably be harrassed into more mistakes. I like the Noles here.

others: Like Arizona to put the wood to what I think is an overrated Oregon State team then let down on the road next week....they are laying 8...Also likeSan Diego St as a road favorite at BYU (-5) believe it or not. BYU is that bad. SDSU has been very solid this year. I'm also going to take a whirl and take the points with Indiana, because I think their offense is for real and can stay on the field long enough to stay within 25 at Ohio St. That's it...sorry for the typos...don't have time to spell check.