Week 7 Musings

I think it's week 7. Anyway, 7-5-1 last week for a decent week, better than it's been, that's for sure. Up to 35-42-2 for the year. The death march to .500 continues. Again, all kinds of things going on this week, so these are going to abridged again.

The season is really shaping up to be a clusterfuck here when it comes to the BCS, good for everyone. I've lost my passion for arguing against a playoff..I guess I'll just argue against a 16 team playoff, which seems to be the flavor of the hour among the anti-BCs crowd. I really don't give a shit anymore though. At this point, now that bama needs help, it seems that Oregon and Nebraska might have pretty good shots, which is cool because I thought before the season that there was about an 80% chance that the two participants of the MNC game would come from the fivesome of Bama, Florida, Oklahoma, Texas and Ohio St. Ohio St still might get there, but they'll have to earn it with road wins against Iowa and Wisconsin. Oklahoma might still make it, but they'll have to get past Nebraska in the B12 title game. Oregon is looking good right now. I still think they have the potential to eff things up, but looking at their skedoolie, it's hard to find a loss. USC??? Good one.

Going with Cincy tonight -3 at Louisville, although Louisville has looked ok this year. I'm skeptical that their offense is for real though, because the best defense they've faced is shickingly Kentucky, and they only got 16 on them at home. Cincy is rounding into shape in my opinion.

1. Maryland +14 1/2 @ Clemson: I am not a big fan of Coach fridge and the terrapins, but sadly, I'm even less a fan of Dabo Swinney and his crew. I've been on Clemson a couple times this year, and try as I might, I can't get them to play competent offense. Their passing game is broken, and their running game is all or nothing. If they don't get a couple long runs from Andre Ellington, they are in trouble offensively. Statistically, this game is pretty even, and the teams have played pretty comparable schedules thus far. Maryland has shown a penchant for the big play with their offense, which is good because they can't convert a 3rd down to save their lives. I think Amryland can certainly hang with this Clemson outfit, especially at noon, so i'll take more than 2 TDs.

2. Vandy +14 1/2 @Georgia: Now that georgia got off the schneid against a terrible Tennessee team, I guess the thought is that they are ready to commence with whooping the rest of the teams on their schedule, and that everyone should forget about the noncompetitive game against Mississippi St or the loss to Colorado. Well, in order to do that they will have to sack up and beat two division opponents in a row like a drum. Also, in order to do that, they will have to get up to play vandy at home, which no SEC team ever does. As a result, Vandy has covered as a road conference dog 16 oout of the last 20 times they've been in that role. I will not be going against those numbers, and if the Dawgs come out and pound this pesky Vandy team, I will extend congratulations.

3. Eastern Michigan +15 1/2 @Ball St: Well, Ball State was a popular home favorite last week after their puzzling win at CMU, and what happint? they got destroyed. They are back in that role again, this time against a putrid EMU team, but I don't care. If EMU has a pulse, they should be able to come within a couple TD's of a team that is in the bottom 10 in the country without question. Liberty beat em outright at Muncie, any FBS team can beat them outright by 10. The points must be taken here. It's EMUs only conceivable chance at a win.

4. @Duke +19 1/2 v Miami: This Miami team is an enigma, and very poorly coached. Duke should have won a couple weeks ago at Maryland, and still has a nice passing atttack. Cutcliffe is coming off a bye, so he has had ample time to design a game plan, and I like his ability in this spot. Miami is likely to be sleepwalking through this game, early in the afternoon at Duke, and Duke is certainly capable of a back door even if Miami shows up, which I am skeptical about.

5. @Colorado St -3 1/2 v UNLV: I would probably buy this down to 3 to be safe, but CSU should be allright. UNLV is a team completely coming apart. Although CSU has been awful defensively, they are starting to come around, and UNLV has been completely non-competitive in their last 2 road games, a 49-10 loss at WV last week which wasn't even that close, and previously a loss to Idaho in which they mustered only 187 yards of total offense against the Vandals. CSU has beaten that same Idaho team and competed for a good portion of the game with Air Force last week on the road. Their rushing offense also woke up. Frankly, any team laying a short number like this at home against UNLV has value, so it can't be passed up. Major possible mutiny issues for UNLV under their first year coach right now.

6. Western Michigan +24 1/2 @ Notre Dame: Unfortunately for the Irish, they play to their competition. WMU is no great shakes, obviously, but they have a decent passing attack, dink and dunk style, and ND just doesn't seem to have the chops to blow people out. Witness their yardage totals in their games this year, all of them have been within 50 yards of the opponent. Not saying that this will be the case here, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if this final was 31-17. I'd love to see ND lay the wood to someone, but something twlls me it won't be here. This is the first time they've played a MAC opponent..no way they come out guns blazing, especially on a 2 game win streak. No Kyle Rudolph either.

7. Iowa -3 @Michigan: This looks like it might be the beginning , or the continuation of the downward spiral for Dick Rod. Basically, if Denard Robinson doesn't single handedly win them the game, they don't have a chance. After 2+ years of sample size, can we assume that the first two weeks this year are continuing the evidence that Michigan is more on the level of Indiana(two consecutive nail biters against them) rather than MSU and the like? Michigan did not really compete against MSU and they continue to give up big plays by the bushel. Defensively, Iowa is significantly better and more well coached than the Spartans, and they have shown some explosion on offense as Stanzi has improved. I also like their safety, Tyler Sash, who is likely to be the spy on DRob. I will be very surprised if Iowa loses here.

8. @Texas Tech -3 v Oklahoma St: Oklahoma St is one of the biggest frauds of recent memory, at least as far as 5-0 teams go. They've played nobody, but still managed to almost lose to troy, had to rally and get a bunch of turnovers to handle La La(who Georgia destroyed 55-7), and gave up 500+ yards to Texas A&M and the greatly confused Jerod Johnson, who can barely complete 50% of his passes anymore. Tech had a nice bounce back last week, and we all know how tough it is to play in Lubbock. I originally had Okie St pegged as a last place team in this division, and I still think they are closer to that than they are to a top echelon club. Even when they were good, they had fetal position issues on the road. Big value here on Tech.

9 @Virginia +7 v North Carolina: You'll have to buy it if you bet it now, (unless you have Bodog0 but probably not by tomorrow. North Carolina is slowly getting their guys back from suspension, but not on the defensive side. This remains a fragile team that really should not be favored on the road against decent conference opponents. Virginia is ready to take a positive step, and they might as well do it against a team they've owned over the years. UVA has won 8 of the last 10 against UNC and covered 9 of the last 10. In most of those games, they were the underdog, inclusing a 13 point win at Chapel hill last year as a 12 point dog. UNC will likely have some issues scoring, and are coming off 3 consecutive wins and covers, so they are due for the proverbial clunker.

10. @Wisconsin +4 v Ohio State: The common thread this week from most who have opined about this game is that Wisconsin is overated this year. I would agree with that based on the results so far, but I would also say that I think Ohio St is a bit overrated as well. Their only road game was a completely uninspiring effort against Illinois, and to be fair, the Illini look a tad better than we thought, but take away a couple long runs by Pryor in that game, and they did a whole lot of nothing for 4 quarters in Champaign. The rest of their schedule has been underwhelming, as we see what miami is at this point. There's no doubt that we'll see the best that Wisconsin has to offer in this one, and the Badgers are capable of moving the ball with much more consistency than Illinois is. Also, Ohio State will have to do more than rope a dope the game away on offense...Pryor will have to make plays with both his feet and his arm in this one, so we'll see if his hamstring is healthy, and you can bet that Wisconsin won't drop the 2 or 3 balls he's going to throw to them like Illinois and Indiana did. Also, it's unlikely that the underwhelming duo of Herron and Saine will have any more success than they have in other big games. I just think the time is right for Ohio St to drop one, and I get 4 points in case the Buckeyes sneak out on a late FG.

11. @Florida -8 v Mississippi St: This is the square bet of the century, but there is just too much value to pass this up, though Ii'll be rooting for the Mulldogs to pull off the outright. That's probably wishful thinking though, because I don't think Mullen has the horses on offense to pull it off. Florida continues to be fade material until they stop stepping on their schlongs offensively, but you have to remember that LSU beat MSU 29-7 a few weeks ago with 264 total yards of offense. Even if MSU plays very well, they could lose by 17, after a couple knowing Urban Meyer glances. Way too much value here on Florida against a team with very shaky ball handlers and almost no offensive firepower, despite their recent success.

12. Ole Miss +21 @Alabama: (Buy it up). I would like this one even more if it wasn't a night game. This is more of a hunch play, but Ole Miss has been quietly getting better lately, especially on offense as Masoli ingratiates himself to the Rebs offense. They've scored 55 and 42 in the last two weeks, and Bama showed themselves to be human last week against South Carolina. People are still laughing and pointing at Ole Miss for their early foibles, so I can see the Rebs hanging around, and 21 is a lot of points in an SEC game.

13. @Washington +2 v Oregon St: The world is on Oregon St. and I can see why someone would want to fade Washington, given their defensive performance this year. However, why would you be so sure to lay points on the road against a good offense when your team is ranked 99th in total defense, 103rd against the pass and 118th in 3rd down conversions against? Oregon St is coming off a surprising victory against Arizona, but can they find the antidote for a second week in a row? I like Mike Riley, but I also like Sarkisian, and I think he can find some success against that Oregon St D at home.

14. @Hawaii +6 1/2 v Nevada: It's always tough to go against Nevada, especially when they have had some breakthrough success this year, but this is always a tough trip, and Hawaii is proving to be a formidable opponent. It's true that Nevada has improved from helpless to competent against the pass, but we don't know a whole lot because they haven't played what can be called a solid passing attack. cal is ok, but they are more of a running team , and the rest of the schedule contains terrible passing attacks, BYU(yep, check the numbers, they're awful), Colorado St, UNLV and San Jose St. Last year, a much worse Hawaii squad walked into Reno and played the Wolf Pack to a standstill, now they get them at home. I think this is Nevada's only chance to get upended before they finish with Boise, and I wouldn't be surprised if it happened. Hawaii is ranked #$1 in the country in passing yards, and 10th in efficiency, so if Nevada truly has improved on D, they can prove it here. I'm guessing that several thousand miles from home, they won't.

OTHERS: I decided to lay off on the musing, but I have a hunch that Arkansas(+4) knocks off Auburn. Auburn has had trouble against the pass, and they've played no attacks like the Hogs and Bobby Petrino....I atopped laying big points with these assholes a long time ago, but Southern Miss(-15) should manhandle Memphis, who is atrocious....I lean to Missouri(+3.5) at Texas A&M until Jerod Johnson gets out of the Maijuana cloud he's been living in for the past 7 weeks. Pretty good defense thus far for Missouri, and A&M's passable defensive numbers are skewed by the competition....Bowling Green has proven themselves to be among the worst teams in FBS, and Temple can run it down their throat just as well as everybody else and their mothers have all year, but -20 is a lot though for a challenged offensive team, so no musing.....I really think the possibility is there for Nebraska to lay a mythical beating on Texas, but Texas is too good on defense to lay down like Washington or K State did to the Huskers...9.5 is a bit much for me, but I'll probably have a unit on it anyway for fun, since I'll be rooting for the new Big Ten guys.....BYU really is that bad...TCU(-29) should lay a whoopin on them again. They would have covered that spread at BYU last year, no reason to think they won't again this year in Fort Worth...I think South carolina will beat Kentucky (-4.5) because they own the Wildcats, but the letdown situation, even though it's been played out ad nauseum is still there. I will say this though....Alshon Jeffrery and Marcus Lattimore could be texting their girlfriends pictures of their junk in the huddle and they'd still be focused enough to blow by this Kentucky defense.

That's it for this week. Good Luck!!!!!!