Week 5 Musings

Unfortunately, very limited time this week, so I apologize for the abridged version. Last week started great, limped to the finish, ended up 6-7. That brings the yearly total to 23-27 after the 5-10 debacle the week before. Several bad beats, but whatever. I promise that I will post evidence of any lucky wins. haven't had one in about 12 years. Like I said, when it happens, I'll be sure to document. Maybe this week. BBBWWWWWWAAAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

1. @Clemson +3 v Miami(FL): I think I'm one of the few people that remains unsold on this Miami team. They way Pitt played against them last week, they seriously should have won by 60 points. Although they turned it on late in the game, they were screwing around with those queers for 3 quarters, and Jacory Harris found new ways to throw picks. Now everyone assumes they'll beat a Clemson team that really needs this game for their collective psyche. At home, they remain a tough out, despite Dabo Swinney's asshole-ish presence there. Defensively, they are a step up for Miami to deal with, and they have a solid QB and a good running game. I like getting points in that scenario.

2. Kent St -3 @Miami(OH): Don't particularly like taking road favorites in the MAC, but I feel the need to pass this one on to you, despite the fact that the line has moved 6 points(!!!). Kent opened up +3, which I played on Monday. I really should get these out earlier, but I don't think anyone plays games that early in the week. Miami(OH) remains a bit of a fraud, totally mistake prone on offense and weak on defense. Kent has proven that they can stop much better offenses than this, havng already held Penn State and Boston College to almost nothing in the run game. believe it or not, despite playing those two, who both have very solid running backs, they are allowing only 1.8 yards per rush, 2nd in the nation, and are 1st in yards allowed per game. They'll need to improve some on offense, but they should win this game based on their defense alone.

3. Navy +10 @Air Force: In this game, with all the running, you absolutely have to take the points if both of the teams involved are solid. Also, for whatever reason, navy has owned AF lately(won and covered 7 in a row, 5 as an outight dog and 9 out of 10), so that cannot be discounted. Everyone knows that AF has looked good this year, with their win over BYU and a very close one with Oklahoma, but in this game, you throw all that out the window and realize that you have two team who will try to grind each other into sawdust and 10 points for either side is a gift. This is a must play on the money line because this is a 50/50 proposition straight up. Take the benefit of the inflated line based on previous results. Even if it loses, there is no doubt that +10 is the right side in this game. It might even be the right side if the opponent was Army.

4. @LSU -16 1/2 v Tennessee: You will all think I am crazy on this one, and I actually question my own sanity here, but hear me out. Tennessee, unfortunately for them, is possibly the worst team in the SEC. Yes, the worst. Worse than Vandy, worse than Ole Miss, even worse than Georgia. Last week they were outgained by UAB 544-287. UA fuckin B dominated these guys. New QB, new coach, no experience, and they've shown it. Also, don't forget that these terrible performances have all come at home. Now they go on the road with all this baggage and will face a great defense. I see no reason to believe that they will score at all if LSU cares to stop them. Even though LSU's offense is a total Mickey Mouse operation, they've figured out ways to score points on better outfits than this. I know I'm counting on Less Miles to not poop himself, but i can easily see a 34-7 game here....maybe worse.

5. Oklahoma -3.5 v Texas: Texas is coming off a horrifically embarrassing loss to UCLA at home, so Oklahoma will get their best effort. Unfortunately, that won't mean dick because they suck ass. Oklahoma also will probably put forth their best effort, having almost lost to three teams that had no business even being in the game with. They've played one game in which people had questions about whether they'd win(FSU), and they wiped the field with them. Texas can't run the ball, they really can't pass, and now I question whther they can stop an offense like Ou's. 3.5 points is value here. If Texas sacks up, good for them, but Mack Brown looks desperate, and I think he's got good reason for it.

6. Wisconsin -2 @ Michigan St: This is more of a fade of MSU than anything, because they have a big look ahead to michigan next week. In the past, they've gotten the shakes in situations luike this, when things start promising. Dantonio hasn't been at full strength this week, and won't be on the sidelines...I think that will be a problem for them. Also, I think Wisconsin can do everything that MSU can do offensively and they have the much better defense. MSU can't cover anyone, and I think that will be the difference in this one. Wisconsin is averaging 10 yards per attempt, good for 5th in the country.

7. Michigan -10 @ Indiana: Someone is going to have to explain to me how Indiana will be able to ever get off the field on defense in this one. Hell, I'd doubt they could even if you only gave Michigan 3 downs. So far this year, IU has played Towson, Western KY and Ack ron. They are ranked 61st in 3d conversions against. If you took their games against Indiana away, WKU and Akron are converting third downs at 27%. that would be good for 114th in the country. Iu should be in the top 10 in that category if they were worth a shit. Also, they've somehow allowed 5.1 yards per carry against those teams, good for 95th nationally. how in the world are they going to be able to stop Shoelace? The over/under on how many times they tackle him should be set at about 9.5. I'll be very surprised if they keep Michigan under 50. It's true that IU has an underrated offense and should be able to put some points up here, but they better be reasy to score 40+ if they want to hang in this one. Play the over as well.

8. Washington St +27 @UCLA: I got this at 28, but the lines are all over the place on this one. Apparently 24 in some spots but both Bodog and bet Us(who I use) have them at 27 still so hurry up. UCLA is in a perfect go against spot here coming off the Texas game. They threw for 27 yards in that game by the way. They still stink to high heaven on offense, so WAZZOU might be able to hold them under 40. WAZZOU has actually looked better on offense, and I am almost positive that UCLA will have a shit effort in this one...how can they not coming off their game of the century? Don't be surprised if it's a 22-13 type game or something.

9. @NC State +4 v VT: Was there any doubt? I'm back hoplessly in love with Russell Wilson. VT has come back with two wins in a row after the loss to James Madison, but don't be fooled. BC actually was in that game more than you think, and a rash of defensive scores led to the comfy win against ECU. Asking them to win at NC State when the Wolfpack is playing this well will be a tall order. Wilson will get his, and their defense has been pressuring people like crazy. Likely no Ryan Williams for VT either.

10. Florida Atlantic +22 @USF: I'm trying to figure out what the draw to USF is. They've gotten pummelled by Florida when the Gaytors were trying to keep them in the game, and they've gotten past Stony Brook and Western kentucky(the latter by a score of 24-12). FAU is coming off a terrible game against North texas, but they are better than that...a good offense and a motivational edge.

11. Duke +8 1/2 @Maryland: Very erisky, because Duke can't stop anyone, but Maryland is pretty good at stopping themselves, and are due for a clunker. Duke is also due to a good game, because they are coming off an embarrassing effort against Army. A closer look at that one reveals a bunch of bad breaks that had them behind the 8 ball. they remain a capable offense and I have faith that Cutcliffe will get a good effort out of them against a Maryland team that wil only be mildly interested.

12. Texas Tech -7 @ Iowa St: Public play, but TT should roll here. Iowa St has never been able to stop that attack and TT's defense is good as well. Iowa St is loving itself because of a nice effort agaisnt Northern iowa. Whatever. Boom goes the dynamite.

13. Stanford +7 @Oregon: Stanford has been too good to not take 7 with them here. I'd probably take the 7 if they were playing Bama as well. Oregon gave up almost 60 yard last week to Arizona St and needed 7 turnovers to sneak out of there with a win. They can be had on defense, and Stanford is the kind of team to do it. Oregon also struggles with physical teams....wow...meet your worst nightmare Ducks. All day with the 7.

14. Florida +7 1/2 @Alabama: I will not taunt Urban Meyer here. can you imagine the carnage he would unleash if I laid 7+ against him. i will not do that, even if I'm unsure about his offense.

15 @Iowa -7 v Penn St: Ferentz owns this PSU staff, and I don't think PSU is very good, even on defense. I think Iowa has a chance to make a statement and blow out the Nitts here. I'll be very surprised if Penn St can muster a significant attack in this one, and I won't be surprised if iowa lays 30+ on them.

others: Like FIU to hang within 18 of the dorks from Pittsburgh.....Liked Central Michigan -16.5 earlier in the week v Ball St, but the line is now at 19, so not as much.....I think UVA can hang with Florida St as a home dog of 7, since FSU is due for a bad effort....I'll be fading Auburn as a 35 point fave against Lou-Mon, since they are likely to drop dead of exhaustion after their last 2 weeks. Also skeptical that Idaho can cover at Western Michigan as a 4 point favorite. WMU is better than their results have shown. Take care!