Week 8 Musings

If you read the week 7 musings verbatim, the record was 9-4, but I really can't take credit for a win on Washington, which I listed at +2, when even I got them at -1 when I put the bet in only a couple hours after I sent off the musings. So I will call it 8-4-1, which I will obviously take. That would bring the overall record to 43-46-3...approaching blind coin flip status.

In the past I've been a proponent of the Mountain West. I've always kind of liked watching the teams, the all play on grass for the most part..cool unis...I've just liked them for some reason. I've also suggested that they are just as worthy of an automatic BCS bid as the Big East, since you've had some great teams coming from there. This year, however, this is definitely not the case. Of course, we have two undefeateds in Utah and TCU, but that be a function of how bad the rest of the MWC is? Let's look at the rest of what was once a proud football league:

TCU/Utah: Very good teams. No issues here'

Air Force: A fun team with a scappy group of players. Typically overmatched by elite squads, but hey, who isn't?
BYU: Normally good, but abysmal this year. Held under 200 yards 3 times, lost convincingly to Utah St.
San Diego St: Better than normal, but haven't had a winning record since Savick was schooling people at the Calumet CC concrete slab.
Colorado St: Terrible
Wyoming: 60% of their players take the short bus to school
UNLV: They litterally don't care and try to lose.
New Mexico: If they played South Suburban College, it would be a fight to the death, but they'd probably cover as a +9 dog.

5 out of 9 teams could be constituted as terrible. Not a good year for the MountainWest. Good thing they're getting Boise, Nevada and Fresno next year.

Let"s move on to this week. Two positive weeks in a row probably do not bode well for this week. Doom, gloom, carnage, all that bullshit. But who knows.

1. @Northwestern +6 v Michigan St: You can pick out the teams that are currently undefeated that will not go undefeated. We all know you you are, so MSU, Oklahoma St, Missouri, all you pretenders step out from behind the curtain and show yourselves. Most people have MSU pegged as a probably loser next week at iowa, but that is going to be a bad spot for Iowa, since they will be coming off 2 big games(and probably wins) in a row. I think this is the week MSU goes down, or at least finds itself sweating things out. It's true that if you look at this game statistically, you'll probably be tiptoe-ing toward the MSU side so I can see why 72%(!!!) of the public likes MSU. The Cats schedule has been weak beyond weak. They struggled with and were outgained by Vandy, snuck by Minnesota by 1 and lost to a Purdue team with most of it's starters in the infirmary. But we all know that each gamefor the Cats this year has been in a role they suck at: the favorite against teams they can't really get up for. Now MSU comes in looking ahead to Iowa after 3 games that were high on everyone's radar. The Cats are coming off a bye after an embarrassing home loss against a team they will be totally amped for. I tend to think that Coach Fitz will have them ready in this environment and we will see a game out the Cats that we have not seen thus far. More of a hunch play, but I don't have a problem hitching my hopes to them in this role based on their history.

2. @Miami(OH) +3 v Ohio: To me, this appears to be the wrong team being favored here. Ohio has had a couple of nice games, but they have been home games against the dregs of the MAC. On the road they barely outgained a terrible EMU team and actually were outgained against Bowling Green a couple weeks ago at home. Miami(OH) has looked good at home and took it to CMU on the road last week. Ohio runs it good and Miami has issues stopping the run sometimes, but in this case, I think the value is in the home team against a team that shouldn't be a road favorite against a comparable team to them.

3. Indiana +14 @Illinois: Obviously I like the Illini and what they've done this year, but they are not very good in this role. They should be able to do what they like to do, which is run the ball since Indiana can't stop a soul on the ground, but I fear their ability to stop a solid spread attack through the air, which is what Indiana has. I am not sold on Nathan Scheelhaase as the Illinois QB...lots of good drives, but not a lot of TDs. If they settle for FGs in this game, they are going to have a hard time covering two TDs because I think Indiana can get some points on the board here. If the Zooker has them ready to go and they take care of business, I'll be happy and will relinquish my unit gladly. I am skeptical to say the least that they'll be able to pull it off.

4. @Iowa -6 v Wisconsin: Iowa has covered 7 out of the last 8 in this series, with the only cover being in a season where Iowa cratered and the Badgers were in a jan 1 bowl game, and even then it was on a game winning FG as time expired. Iowa can stop what Wisconsin wants to do offensively(run) and I think Scott Tolzien, though he's been ok, is prone to mistakes that might manifest themselves in this one. I also suspect that this spread might come down a bit between now and kickoff. Wisconsin is in a tough spot coming off the Ohio St win, and Iowa is a much worse matchup for them. Believe it or not, the Hawkeyes are ranked 3rd in the nation in yards per attempt, so they can throw it. I can see a relatively comfortable win for the Hwkeyes here, as we might see Wisconsin fall back into the pattern they were used to prior to the Ohio St game, which was a lot of mediocre play.

5. @Baylor -6 1/2 v Kansas St: K State has a nice record this year, but most of it has been built on the backs of some horseshit competition. Offensively, despite flashes of comptetence against home run hire Turner Gill and Kansas last week, the offense remains one dimensional. They also will have to show that they can do something against a dynamic offense, because the last time they faced a dual threat QB(Nebraska) they got embarrassed. Robert Griffin and Baylor are certainly capable of providing a competent foil in that regard. If Baylor merely slows down Daniel Thomas, I think this is an easy home win for the Bears. I can see a 570-320 type yardage advantage in this one.

6. @Cal -3 1/2 v Arizona St: I have been impressed by the Sun Devils this year, as Steven Threet has had much more of a positive impact than I expected, and their defense has been stout, but there is a lot of value incal at home in this spot. So far against BCS foes at home, cal has beaten Colorado 52-7 and UCLA 35-7, both on relatively short lines. Now they get another short line against a team admittedly better than those two, but in the same class for the most part. Also, remember that Cal is coming off a pride shattering blowout loss to USC, and ASU has played well on the road in it's last two outings. I think you'll see a reversal of that here, as Cal gets back on track in their element and wins comfortably at home.
7 Georgia Tech +5 1/2 @Clemson: I lost going against Clemson last week, but it was the right side, as they got outgained by more than 150 yards against Maryland yet still found a way to win by 24. They still cannot throw the ball, and Ga Tech is getting better on D under new DC Al Groh. We know that GT will be getting some things done on offense, I am absolutely confident that GT can win this outright. Major, MAJOR coaching advantage here as well with paul Johnson vs Dabo. If GT keeps Andre Ellington from breaking more than 1 long one, and they keep turnovers to a minimum, they should win, and it might be easy. I am very good at identifying the loser in the turnover battle though...just a reminder.

8. LSU +6 @Auburn: Either Auburn is goingto crashing to earth, or they are a charmed team. After watching the breaks they got against Arkansas, I'm thinking the latter, but there is really no reason not to take the points here, despite my absolute disdain for backing any Less Miles coached team. Auburn's offense is finally going to face a defense that matches up well with what thy want to do. They are big and they're fast, so Cam Newton might finally come across some guys who give him some boo boos when he goes plowing up the middle. Also, he almost always locks in on Darvin Adams when he throws the ball, and he'll be locked up by Patrick Peterson who will just shove his sorry ass out of the way and take it to the house in that case. Big special teams edge for LSU also. Lastly, there has been only 1 or 2 times where Jordan Jefferson has had success against a decent team, and one of them was last year against Auburn when he was 21-31 for 242 and 2 scores with no INT. Malzahn's offense only gained 187 in that one too, so I think DC John Chavis has a nice feel for what to do against this offense. The hype machine is on full blast for Cam Newton, so I think it'll come crashing down for him a bit. Again, I don't like backing Miles, but when he has meltdowns, it's usually in a tight game, so hopefully we'll cover anyway.

9. @Vandy +12 1/2 v South Carolina: Usually in this role, Vandy is a short dog, which is why they have somewhat of a weak record as a home dog, compared with a great record as a road dog(last week notwithstanding). 12.5 is more than they usually get, so I think there's value against someone who is less than an elite team, especially if Marcus Lattimore is banged up. South Carolina is in a tough spot here, needing to right the ship to reestablish themselves as the alpha dog in the SEC East after that meltdown last week. I think they can do it, but I don't think they can whoop Vandy, as the Dores have had good success against them in the past. If they do it, I'll be glad because I like South Carolina. Vandy will be in a fighting mood after getting shellacked by Georgia. I like their chances to keep it close.

10. North Carolina +6 1/2(I'd buy it to 7) @Miami(FL): The fade of Miami continues, as they are not a tough foe at home. They can't sell out that place, and they might not get 35k since everyone down there is soured on Randy Shannon. UNC has developed in the passing game, as Yates has been able to hit big throws just about every week. Also, since they have gotten their offensive miscreants back(2 RBs) they've been able to run it pretty well too. Their depth is coming back on defense, they showed that last week by completely shutting out Vagina on the road, and they are a heady bunch in the secondary, so Jacory Harris is likely to throw it to them a couple times. I think they have a great shot at the outright, so I would definitely take a TD here.

11. Oklahoma -3 @Missouri: Maybe I'm a square, but I don't see any value at all in having to almost get an outright win in order to back Missouri. I see the draw to wanting to back them in general though, because I think that Oklahoma is entirely overrated, having scared nobody on the ground, and Landry Jones does not strike fear into anyone's heart either. However, missouri hasn't even been able to come within double digits with Oklahoma when they've had better team than this, and it appears that Mizzou has built thid record against a dubious schedule, and if not for a fluke 80 yard TD pass with less than a minute left against San Diego St, they would have lost that game. They are not a contender and are going to lose, it makes allthe sense in the world that it would be here, despite Oklahoma's overrated nature. OU is going to go down soon as well, just not this week.

12. @Tennessee +17(buy it from 16.5)v Alabama: Bama is somewhat lost on offense right now, and Tennessee has the athletes to hang with them on defense. Greg McElroy has really struggled lately, and Saban appears bent on getting him out of it, as they are not just pounding people with that running game. In order to cover this, they are going to have to break out of it, and I have a hard time seeing that happening. Bama's defense has also shown lapses of coherent thought, so UT will probably catch them for a couple long plays, and Taurean Poole can run it a bit. Too many points here for Bama at this juncture.

13. UAB +20 @Mississippi St: Great spot to go against Mississippi St here, coming off their biggest win a several years. Also, it's hard for a team that cannot throw the ball to cover a big spread like this. UAB is a strange case. I like this UAB team. They have had some dominating efforts, like the one last week against a pretty good and offensively competent UTEP squad, who they outgained 500-229 and on the road against another SEC squad Tennessee who they outgained 544-287. They also beat Troy on the road. They are getting points here based on MSU's newfound competent status, and because UAB shat the bed in their last game on National TV, a blowout loss to Central Florida. However, that was "one of those games" for UAB, as they had 2 turnovers brought back to the house and another to the 5. It's a good spot for them here, and even if it wasn't they've shown the chops to hang with teams like Mississippi St. If they stop the run, they have an outside chance to catch the Mulldogs napping and spring the upset.

others: I'll have a couple bucks on Purdue +24 @Ohio St because I think Purdue is competent enough on defense to hang with Pryor and co, and I think it'll be a shit effort from the Buckeyes off their loss to Wisconsin....Also like Syracuse getting 14 at WV, if only because WV has to play yet another home game against a supposed weak sister, espcially Syracuse. If Stewart gets a good effort out of his team here, I might have to change my tune on him(no). Also, Syracuse thinks they have something going here(!!!)hardy har, so they'll be giving max effort after a beatdown from Pitt last week.....Vagina, I mean Virginia will probably beat up on Eastern Michigan, who beat ball St last week, which means nothing. 24 is the line..Virginia is only good at clubbing baby seals, and that's what they got this week....Call me a nutcase psychopath, but I'll be on Kansas again this week. Home run hire Turner Gill has to have some mystic magic up his sleeve, and A&M, a sucker for mystic magic if there ever was one, is laying 14 to them on the road. Wow. If turner can't come within 14 against the Aggies, who routinely make a career out of stepping on their dicks, maybe we might be only 99% sure that he is a heroic omniscient mastermind....That's it for this week. Sorry again for the typos. Take Care! Fade.