Week 5 Musings

A crappy 6-8-1 week that could have been worse since Syracuse got a gift win. Of course, there were some tough beats in there too...Ohio had a million bad breaks in their game with Rutgers, Boise was up 27 at the half and then inexplicably sat Kellen Moore for the final 25 minutes of the game, which I have never seen them do before. Whatever. 27-28-2 for the year.
I just got done watching "Catching Hell" the ESPN documentary about Steve Bartman. Hyun, your buddy who made "Chasing October" was prominently featured in it, if you didn't see it. I was skeptical about watching it because that whole episode angers me on so many levels, but I actually thought it was really well done. They did a fantastic job of finding the other fans in his section and getting very interesting comments from them about how things happened that night. But they didn't touch completely on a couple things that bother me. Obviously, most, if not all fans would have reached up for that ball, just as Bartman did. But they would do that not as a conscious selfishness of wanting the ball, but because of pure instinct and complete ignorance to the concept that the ball might be playable for Alou.

How astute of a fan would you have to be to look at your seat, look down at the field, think to yourself "Ok...I'm well above the field, but I'm only about 9.5 feet above the field of play, and if the ball comes right to my seat, the left fielder might have a play." Then, when the ball is coming straight toward him, in a packed house with nowhere to go, he realizes that there might be a play on it, boxes out the rest of the fans so Alou can catch it? 99.9% of fans would have done the same thing.. If the play happened at field level, near 1st or 3rd base, maybe someone would act differently, and think to get out of the way, but not in those seats up there.

So all of those meathead jackasses who were yelling "asshole", or throwing beer on him or taking swings at him as he was taken out of the stadium, the exact same thing would have happened if they were sitting in those seats. I also think this whole episode would have been a footnote if Alou had simply gone back to his position instead of throwing a temper tantrum.

Also, how about that night of baseball on Wednesday night? A couple of colossal collapses were solidified and put to bed when Atlanta lost and the Red Saux blew their lead and then watched Tampa walk off with a win. I was disappointed to see Atlanta lose because it meant that my least favorite team made the postseason. I guess praying with all your heart and soul while clutching your Cardinals teddy bears works after all. I used to root for the Red Sox, but now that they've won a couple times and I've seen Red Sox fan invasions of visiting areas (as well as greater Fort Myers during spring training) I'm more than ok with some pain for that fanbase. I also got a taste of Massachusetts again 2 weeks ago while attending a family wedding. I like the area, but I saw enough ponytailed bearded delinquents and black-toothed, meth addicted skanks to satisfy my urge to visit there ever again. Today, that whole population is on suicide alert, and I am just fine with it. So.., to Fitz, Murph, Sully and the rest of all you low lives out there, I'll quote the great Nelson Muntz. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIrhVo1WA78.


1. Utah State +8 @BYU(Friday night!!): BYU had a horseshoe up their collective asses last week as they should have lost outright to Central Florida, but caught all kinds of breaks in breaking a kickoff return for a score and also jumping on 4 inopportune UCF fumbles. They managed only 260 yards and got outgained by a relatively weak offensive squad by 139 yards. I guess an outright loss wouldn't have been so far fetched since they were only a 1.5 point favorite. This week they are laying 8 against a Utah State team that is in my opinion just as good as UCF. Defensively, they are shockingly ranked 8th in yards per play against. They are 10th in rush defense while BYU is ranked 111th offensively. On offense, they are 6th in ypc and 17th overall in yards per play while BYU is very average. Don't forget that Utah St manhandled BYU last year in Logan, 31-16 while outgaining them by 100 yards and gaining 6.2 yards per play while BYU could only manage 4.1 ypp and under 2.5 yards per pop on the ground. Utah State is better this year, with a better QB and the return of home run threat Robert Turbin. who missed the season last year. Utah State knows they can win, and I think they'll have the better of the scrimmaging. As long as the Aggies can avoid a total turnover meltdown, I think they'll have a great shot at the outright win.

2. Northwestern +10 @Illinois: Statistically, this one kind of looks like a mismatch for the Illini, but I have a rotten feeling about this one for the my team. They are actually looking 2 weeks ahead, dreaming of how awesome it will be to be 6-0 when Ohio State comes to Champaign on October 14th. Dan Persa will finally be back, so you can expect a surge in Northwestern's passing numbers. The Illini should be able to run at will on the 'Cats, but they have had a penchant toward fumbling and playing to the competition this year. Again, as a fan, I'll be thrilled with an outright win...I would be very surprised if the Zooker will be able to take it to Coach Fitz and his Young Men 2 years in a row.

3. Tulane +7 @Army: Army has been pretty good at home this year, but not in this role. After last week's bludgeoning at Ball St, Army is now 5-13 as a favorite over the past 10 years. They don't have much experience in this role, and when they find themselves in it, they are used to failing. Tulane comes in at 2-2, having taken it on the chin to Tulsa and Duke in their losses. In both cases, however, they were more competitive than the final score indicated. Tulsa is one of the better running teams around, having run all over Okie St a couple weeks ago, but Tulane held them to a reasonable 4.5 yards per carry. In their blowout win at UAB, another team that historically runs it well, they held the Blazers to almost nothing on the ground. For the year, they are a respectable 41st against the run. On the flipside, Army's defense is terrible, ranked 112th overall and 116th against the pass. Tulane's offense isn't a juggernaut, but they've had some nice games, including a 545 yard effort at UAB. 2 years ago, in a very similar situation, Tulane beat Army at West Point outright(17-16) as a 6 point dog. I can see a very similar result here.

4. @Syracuse -1 1/2 v Rutgers: I am going to continue to fade this Rutgers team. Other than their game with North Carolina-Central early this year, they have been severely outgained in their last 11 games in a row. Syracuse is capable on both sides of the ball, and all they have to do here is win, much like they had to do last week. Both teams have an edge with their defenses over the opponent's offense with the exception of Syracuse's passing offense having the clear advantage over Rutgers' porous pass defense. Ohio threw for 339 yards and 9.4 per attempt against them last week and North Carolina went for 10.5 per attempt a couple weeks prior to that. I think Syracuse will be able to throw on them all day. Again, without turnovers, I don't think Rutgers can hang in this one.

5. SMU +13 @TCU: So far this year, TCU has been a shell of it's former self. They have passed the ball pretty well, but their calling card of the past several years has been their suffocating defense, and this edition of the Horned Frogs has been anything but suffocating. They are currently ranked 91st in yards per play on defense, and 109th against the pass. Last year, they allowed 48% completions, this year they are allowing 65%. Conversely, SMU is ranked 10th in total defense, and they have played the likes of Texas A&M, so the numbers are not all that fluky. SMU will be on the road here, but it's only a 20 minute drive back over to Dallas for them, and I think they will have the better of the scrimmaging. Last year, when they played what was probably the most successful TCU squad of all time, they outgained the Horned Frogs and I think they can do it again. One of my favorite running backs in the country is SMU's Zach Line. Last year in this game, he ran for 139 yards on 17 carries..this on a TCU defense that was light years ahead of this year's version. I think they'll be able to run on TCU, I think they'll be able to throw on the 109th best pass defense, and I think they'll stop the run. It looks to me that SMU has the edge in that they'll be able to run and throw on TCU, while I think TCU will only have marginal success throwing the ball. Statistically, SMU has simply been the better team so far this year, and they hung extremely tough with a vastly superior TCU team last year. They've got a great shot at the outright upset.

6. @Virginia Tech -7 v Clemson: Clemson is coming off 2 great wins for them, a victory over defending National Champ Auburn, followed up by a nice win over Florida State last week. Laughably, I've actually heard some pundits breach the subject of the Tigers running the table. When I say "pundits", I mean the dumb ones, like Eddie George, and Skeeter from Columbus GA on the Paul Finebaum radio show. So Clemson comes off those two huge wins, and now has to travel to Blacksburg to face the real threat to go unbeaten in the ACC, the Hokies. Although Clemson has been impressive offensively, this will be Tahj Boyd's first road start, and it comes against the #3 defense in the country, weak competition or not. This is a major coaching edge for the Hokies, and don't look now, but with all the swooning over the Clemson offense, everyone forgot that this is the #107 ranked defense in yards per play. FSU had their backup QB in there, several receivers hurt and a terrible offensive line, and they put up 30 points and 336 yards passing on them. I think they are walking into an almost impossible situation here. If Dabo squeezes competitiveness out of them, we'll all have to tip our caps and wait for hell to freeze over. Also, 62% of the public likes Clemson, a huge number for a dog.

7. @Louisiana Tech -4 1/2 v Hawaii: Hawaii is 2-2, and has been as inconsistent as you can get. They've beaten Colorado soundly at home, were somewhat competitive with Washington on the road and administered the obligatory gory blowout to the unlucky FCS opponent who has to venture to the island every year. But they also took an prison raping on the road against UNLV, considered one of the most sorry squads in he country. Now they make the toughest conference road trip that exists in college football today, the 6,000+ mile trip with 3 plane changes and a bus ride to Ruston, LA. The last 3 trips they've made to Ruston have not gone well for them, especially in relation to the spread. In each of those games, La Tech has covered by more than 20 points ( won 27-6 as a 6 point favorite in '09, lost 45-44 as a 28 point dog in '07 and won 46-14 as a 3 point favorite in '05). I think the trip has as much to do with these results as the talent, but this year, La Tech despite a 1-3 record, has been impressive. They outgained Mississippi St and had them beaten last week in Starkville, only to give up a late TD and eventually lose in overtime. They lost by a point at home to Houston and by 2 on a last second field goal at Southern Miss. So they are no joke, and historically have been a very tough out in Ruston. If Hawaii turns in a less than inspired performance, I don't think this one will be close. Any team that can be held to 290 total yards and 6 yards rushing against UNLV is a suspicious candidate to cover a small spread in this game.

8. Washington +10 @Utah: There's this suggestion that Utah is going to just walk into the Pac 10 and it will be business as usual, just as it was when they were in the Mountain West. Total dick Kyle Winningham and his wild Samoan Mormons will soon find out that there anren't many New Mexicos or UNLVs or Wyomings on their schedule anymore. This line is greatly inflated by the 54-10 shellacking that Utah put on BYU 2 weeks ago, but that game was an orgy of crazy turnovers and wild bounces so it shouldn't be taken all that seriously. I also think that Utah has been given some credit for hanging with USC, but that game was on the verge of being a blowout until USC let them stay in the game. Washington QB Keith Price has actually greatly improved on Jake Locker's numbers...he's currently completing 67% of his passes with a 14/3 ratio, and that's against teams like Cal and Nebraska, so he's legit. Utah continues to be pedestrian on offense, especially in the passing game. Defensively they're good, but I don't think they have the offense to run away from a talented Washington team.

9. Texas -9 1/2 @Iowa St: I think Texas has turned the corner now that they have made the necessary changes at QB, going from the often confused Garrett Gilbert to young Case McCoy. I'm also a big believer in OC Bryan Harsin, who used to be at Boise. Defensively, they are almost as good as they've always been, so no problems there. In most seasons, Texas would be at least a 17-20 point favorite in this situation, but since Iowa State is 4-0 and looked good in their upset of Iowa, the spread is manageable. Also remember that Iowa State went into Austin and won for the first time in forever last year. That's part of the reason why I like Texas here, as the Horns certainly remember that game. Iowa State is 4-0 but statistically, they are still pretty woeful on offense, ranked in the mid 90's in yards per play. Defensively, they've been good, but they've played the likes of UCONN and a couple FCS schools, so this will be a huge step up for them. I like Texas to make a statement here, and remind the Cyclones what their lot in life is.

10. @Purdue +12 v Notre Dame: Notre Dame has obviously played a tougher schedule than Purdue, but the Boilers match up very well statistically with the Irish. They are ranked 19th in total defense, 18th against the run, and have moved the ball pretty much at will admittedly against weak competition. ND has shown a huge penchant for turning the ball over, and I thought Tommy Rees looked terrible last week at Pittsburgh. Purdue always gets up to play Notre Dame, and has played them tough in West Lafayette in recent years with worse teams than this. 2 years ago, ND had to eek out a last second win, and that was a solid Jimmy Claussen/Kyle Rudolph/Golden Tate team facing Danny Hope's first team, who ended up going 5-7. I'd rather see Purdue starting Robert marve than Caleb TerBush, but both will probably get snaps. I think the Boilers will show up, and ND has not proven that they can take care of business on the road.

11. Alabama -4 @Florida: When I first started looking at this game, I was searching high and low to find a reason to back the Gators here, but I just can't justify it. Obviously, Florida does not often find itself in the position of being a dog in The Swamp. It's only happened once in the past 10 years, and I can't find a time when they were more than a FG dog at home. There's good reason why they're dogged here, and it's the Alabama defense and Bama's penchant for scoring in ways other than using AJ McCarron's arm. If Florida can find a way to force McCarron to beat them with his arm, they are going to be in good shape, but I don't see it happening. Alabama's only possible weakness is a vertical passing game, and Florida simply does not have the horses to run that kind of game. John Brantley has proven time and again that he can't make those throws, and believe it or not, Florida does not have a single downfield receiving threat. Their offensive game is entirely dependent on runs after the catch by Chris Rainey and Jeffrey Demps, but Alabama's strength is it's ability to completely contain the short stuff, and they tackle remarkably well. I think Florida will struggle mightily to score. Bama will be challenged also, because Florida's defense is only a step behind Bama's, but Bama's offensive line is a monster to deal with and I think they'llbe able to run it on Florida. Once the emotion of kickoff dials down and Alabama gets themselves settled in, I think they'll take over the game. If Florida gets some bad breaks(which Charlie Weis is quite used to) and the fans start feeling sorry for themselves, it could get out of control, and that happens A LOT to Bama's opponents. See last weeks game with Arkansas for examples. Potentially a coaching mismatch here also with Saban vs Muschamp is Muschamp's 5th ever game as a HC.

12. @Wisconsin -10 v Nebraska: I can't believe that I'm taking this side, but the more I look at this game, the more I think the Badgers roll to a big victory. This is the toughest ticket in Badger history according to AD Barry Alvarez, the greatest AD in College Football history. This is off the subject, but for a moment, consider what that guy has accomplished since he came to Madison in 1990. Think about what Wisconsin football and basketball was before he got there, and contemplate what they are now. Wisconsin!!. It's really amazing. Anyway, it will be a raucous atmosphere up there, with all the marijuana smoke hanging over the stadium and with Game Day there to get everyone whipped into a frenzy all day. Nebraska actually has not been very good this year, especially on defense. Hell, even Wyoming ran it for 4 yards a carry on them, and Fresno St, otherwise the 80th ranked rush offense in the country had their running back pound them for 170 yards. Washington ran it on them for 5 yards a pop in Lincoln. You get the point. Wisconsin has been simply going through the motions so far this year, completely unchallenged and doing whatever they want on offense. Sometimes my guy Russell Wilson throws a TD pass, sometimes he runs it in himself, sometimes he hands it off to one of his buddies to score the TD, it's just whatever he feels like at that moment. Defensively, the game that impressed me the most was their game in Soldier Field against NIU. NIU has a damn good offense, and they have a poor man's Taylor martinez in Chandler Harnish, but they were completely shut down by the Badgers. 237 total yards, only 11 first downs. I would be willing to wager that NIU won't be held under 400 yards the rest of the season. That was an eye opener for me. The combination of that offense against a Nebraska team that hasn't figured things out yet along with the atmosphere and what looks to me to be a very solid defense, I can see this one being 17-0 at the drop of a hat.

13. Oregon St +18 1/2 @Arizona State: Statistically, Oregon State has been absolutely woeful, especially on defense, but this is actually nothing all that new for the beavs under Mike Riley. They always play tough teams away from home out of conference(Boise and Penn State in recent years, Wisconsin this year) only to get their bearings once October rolls around. It didn't happen last year, but Mike Riley is 31-14 ATS from October on, adn they have just gotten their best receiver and starting TE back. They have settled on a Qn now, Sean Mannion, who has looked pretty good the past couple of games. They are in the mid 40s in yards per play on offense, so I think they'll be able to move the ball on ASU. ASU finds itself in a terrible spot here, coming off a huge win last week at home against USC. There's no way they will be able to match that intensity again, and this is a huge spread to have to cover against a non-patsy. Even if this is a blowout and ASU is up 35-10 late, we'll still have a shot at a backdoor. I can see this one being a lot closer than that.


Others: Air Force(+3.5) was actually at +4 for a few minutes yesterday at Navy. If either of these teams is getting more than a FG, there's value. Air Force completely shut Navy down last year when the Middies had Ricky Dobbs. Kriss Proctor is the QB now..I'm not yet sold on him, so I actually think their offense might be down a notch despite the nice performance they had at South Carolina All the usual suspects return for AF, so I think the potential is there for a repeat of last year, and I'll definitely take the FG.....I almost never do this, but I highly recommend the OVER on the Texas Tech/Kansas game. Kansas's defense looks like a learining disabled group that might put up almost mythically bad numbers this year, if the first few games are any indicator. At the same time, their offense looks pretty good and Texas Tech can't stop a soul either. I think it's at 67 or something. I was going to take Tech -6 1/2, but I'm afraid they'll give up 40+ themselves.....I like Arkansas (+2 1/2) to handle A&M in Dallas. Although both teams lost, I think much more wind was taken out of the sails of A&M, since they collapsed at home, while nobody expected much out of Arkansas in Tuscaloosa. The Hogs have statistically dominated this series since they started it back up again, and I think there's a disctinct coaching advantage for Arkansas.....12:30 game in Baton Rouge this week, so a major letdown is probably in store for LSU, even though they are playing a terrible kentucky team. 31 points is a ton here though. If Kentucky can't cover that in this spot, they should be kicked out of the SEC.....I think this is the week that South Carolina (-10) figures things out offensively. Auburn is that terrible on defense. Even if Garcia still has his head up his ass, they'll just hand it to Lattimore 40 times and let Melvin Ingram score a couple more times on defense. Big public dog too, is Auburn. Everybody is united in their hatred for Stephen Garcia's passing acumen....I like MSU getting 3.5 at Ohio State, but I refuse to make it a musing because Matt Millen is doing that game, and every time he and Sean McDonough open their mouths, bad things happen tome. (See A&M/Okie St last week). I am 100% dead serious when I say that I would love to see Matt Millen drop dead....After watching the laughable display that NC State's defense but on last Thursday night in Cincinnati, I shudder to think what ga tech will do to them this week, laying only 9.5. They were constantly blowing contain, out of position and randomly sprinting away from the ball carrier. They will probably be able to move it on Tech, but Mike Glennon will probably nerd it up in some inopportune times. I can't see them keeping up, but at almost double digits, it's a bit too much to be a musing....To me, Washington State(+3) looks like the better team in their tilt at Colorado. Buffs might also be likely to take them lightly, and the Cougs have been lighting up the scoreboard while competing defensively.....Fresno State (-4.5) always gets up for BCS opponents, and if they want to have some fun at home, Ole Miss appears to be the perfect foil. I can't see Ole Miss going all the way out there and competing with that sickly offense, but the fact that Fresno is favored gives me a bit of pause.....That's it for this week...I hope everyone has a great week.

Week 4 Musings

Last week was a behemoth card, as I had 16 total, going 8-8 after Arizona shit the bed against Stanford in the second half. Not great, but I had several games that featured some rock-headed capping, and found myself on the same side of some extremely public underdogs which is never a good idea. A couple of the losses I thought had some pretty sound reasoning that just didn't work out, but I also had some fortuitous wins(Iowa for one.). So I'll grudgingly take the .500 week and live to play another day. Not even any value for the faders this week. Sorry 'bout that.

Holy Jumpin'Christmas am I glad a stayed away from NC State last night. The general rule is to go with the dog when NC State is on the road, but I just didn't like the matchup for the Wolfpack. I watched parts of the first half and early in the second, and I have to say that NC State's effort was offensive to me. So offensive, in fact, that I doubt that I will be risking my money on that outfit unless they are getting 30+. Hell, they lost 44-14 last night, so 30 wouldn't even had been enough. Ultimate nerd Mike Glennon threw for 300+, mostly in garbage time, but one look at him and his bucked teeth and goblin ears could tell you that he's not winning anything. Apparently Tom O'brien forgot how to coach football too, because that team was lost. Missing contain, dropping interceptions, roughing the passer on thrird and long..just complete incompetence.

One other thing I've been wondering, amid all the conjecture and hand wringing about conference realignment is this: Why does everyone assume that it is a foregone conclusion that we will end up having 4 16 team superconferences?? A couple points here....First, why does the Big Ten need to expand to 16?? Why does the SEC? Because someone said you have to have 16?? It's a nice round number? The idea with expansion, at least with the conferences that share revenue like the Big Ten does, is to increase revenues per school. If you are going to expand, the team that's coming in has to represent revenue growth that exceeds their piece of the equally shared pie. Also, the Big Ten won't expand unless the school is worthy academically, and Nebraska, it appears, barely made the cut in that respect. So Kansas and Kansas St, without a good football program, aren't coming in. Unless they can get Notre Dame, there's no reason for the Big Ten to expand, since that would even further water down conference scheduling. These 16 team conferencs are really going to end up being 8 team mini-conferences anyway. Is that what people want? So I guess my point is, I don't buy into the 16 team inevitability. It looks like the PAC 12 figured as much, so maybe things will stabilize..who knows.

On to this week. The frst thing that I'll say is that I was very close to grabbing the points with UCF in their game tonight at BYU, but the spread ran down to 2. Based on what these two teams have done this year, I think UCF is the better team, actually by quite a bit, but I need more cushion than 2 points in a venue like Provo. I'll be surprised if BYU can move the ball effectively on UCF. Standings after 3 weeks: 21-20-1.


1. @Syracuse -2.5 v Toledo: Surprisingly, the public likes Toldeo in this contest. I understand Toldeo is no joke, having played Ohio State tough in Columbus a couple weeks ago, but we're seeing, especially after that putrid offensive performance at Miami last week, that OSU is not the juggernaut of years past(predicted in the preseason musings, as you might remember). Syracuse, at least lately, has been a good whipping boy, having fielded some of the worst BCS level teams in recent memory. However, under Marrone, they have been better, and actually possess a pretty good passing game now with QB Ryan Nassib. Some class relief here for Syracuse, as they are coming off a loss at USC. In that game, QB Nassib actually threw the ball pretty well, and their starting RB Bailey ran it for better than 4 yards a pop. Syracuse isn't great, but they aren't bad either. All they really have to do in this game is win at home, and I don't think that's asking much of them. Toledo is pretty good, but they don't have a strong enough defense to slow down Syracuse on the road. They should be getting at touchdown here, at least.

2. North Carolina +7 @Georgia Tech: I can understand this line, given the results of the Jackets offense so far this year. Consider: They just put up 768 yards on kansas last week, including 600+(!!!!!!!!!!!!!) on the ground. Also, a quick gamder at the passer rating stats will tell you that they are lapping the field in that category(322.22!), and you should probably also know that they are averaging 22.5 yards per ATTEMPT!. That, my friends is getting it done. However, I cannot stress to you how bad Kansas is on defense. They never stopped NIU the week before on their home field, and they certainly had no chance to figure out Ga tech's attack under Home Run Hire Turner Gill. UNC did not look great last week at home vs Virginia, but they got the job done after dominating Rutgers the week before. Georgia Tech, I'm sure, will put some yardage up on them, but this line has gone crazy based on Tech's performance against completely overmatched opponents. many times, GT has struggled against more athletic defenses, and UNC fits the bill. Also, GT has always struggled on defense under Johnson, especially against effective passing attacks. UNC is averaging 10 yards per attempt themselves, so their offesne fits the bill as a bad matchup for GT. 3 weeks ago, this line would be at least 10 points the other way, so I see a lot of value in this line. Obviously, it's scary to go against Tech given their performance so far this year, and I love being on Johnson's side, but I think things change for them now that they are facing an upgrade in competition.

3. @Maryland -8.5 v Temple: Another dog that the public likes. Temple played Penn State last week and made some waves because they were in it until the end, but I think people are putting too much into that one. First, Penn State is no juggernaut offensively, and they blew 3 or 4 possessions on turovers deep in Temple territory and missed FGs. On the other hand, Maryland is coming off a tough loss to West Virginia, and will get some class relief after starting the season with the 'Eers and Miami. Offensively, they have been explosive, and should have beaten WV last week if QB Danny O'Brien hadn't tossed a couple to the other team. In their two games this year, Maryland has put up 477 and 500 yards, and temple, in their first exposure to a real defense, couldn't crack 200. Their wins have come against Akron, who might be #120 out of 120, and a Villanova team that has subsequently lost to Towson 31-10 and Monmouth College 20-9. I think Temple will have a hard time keeping up in this one.

4. @Miami(OH) -3 v Bowling Green: This line keeps dropping. I'll be buying the 1/2 point if necessary to get to 3. Miami is 0-2 on the year, having lost road games at Missouri and Minnesota. This had some tough breaks in both, and actually could have walked away with W's in both cases with some good fortune. They outgained the Gophers last week but had a blocked punt for a TD against them and 2 missed XPs that ended up hurting them. Now they return home and get some class relief with BG. BG's defense has been terrible over the past several years, and although they have been better statistically this year, they gave up big yards to Wyoming last week, and figure to again this week on the road in Oxford. Zac Dysert and WR Nick Harwell carved up BG last year, and they've been doing it to people this year, so I see more of the same. BG is also going to see a much better defense than they have previously. I like Miami's new coach Don Treadwell, and I think they get their season going this week with a nice home win.

5. @Ball State +4 v Army: Over the past 10 years, Army has been favored on the road 4 times. They are 0-4 ATS spread in those games. They are favored here because they played a great game agaisnt Northwestern, running the ball 75 times and grinding out a 7 point win. Remember, that NW was a favorite in that one, a role they cannot handle. I think the same might be true for Army here. The expectation would be that Army will run it down Ball State's throats, and play good enough defense to win going away. However, these two teams played each other at Army two years ago, when Ball State was terrible and coached by a dolt, and they held a Steelman led Army attack to only 265 yards. Now they move the game to Muncie, Ball State is much more competent on both sides of the ball, and they have a coach that knows what he's doing. Also remember that Ball State physically dominated Indiana in week one, and it gives you more indication that they won't be a pushover. Army has never been strong defensively, and in their lone road game this year, they were down 49-6
after 3 quarters. There's not enough evidence for me to make them a favorite in this game.

6. Ohio +4 @Rutgers: Ohio coach Frank Solich is calling this his best team at Ohio, and that's with good reason. They haven't played stiff competition yet, but they've blown out everyone they've played, including what was previously thought to be a decent Marshall team last week 44-7, racking up 558 yards in the process. Defensively they have been solid as well, which doesn't bode well for Rutgers. I am just not a believer in the Scarlett Knights, as they can't run the ball to save their lives. If Ohio is looking for an opportunity to open some eyes against a BCS team, which I'm sure they are, this is the prefect opponent. I think the Bobcats are the better team here. It wouldn't surprise me if they win this one going away.

7. @Texas A&M -4 v Oklahoma St: This line keeps moving, but I think the Aggies are going to make a statement here. This team keeps building confidence, has circled this game, and believes that it can win the Big 12. That wasn't the case last year on the Thursday night when they lost by 3 to the Cowboys in Stillwater. In that game, Jerrod Johnson was still screwing around at QB for the Aggies, but they still outgained OSU 535-353. I am a big believer in A&M DC Tim DeKuyper(former Air Force DC) and I think these two defenses are not comparable. Although they won in a blowout because Tulsa can't stop a medium sized horsefly from running them over on defense, OSU still gave up 365 yards rushing at 6.5 yards a pop to the Golden Hurricane. If they don't improve immensely on that A&M is going to run them out of the stadium. The Aggies are extremely balanced, so OSU better bring their lunch buckets. Offensively, it's obvious that OSU is explosive, but A&M had them figured out last year, and they'll have a raucous crowd in their corner this year. OSU has been a hell of a story in recent years, but I think they are going to take this one on the chin.

8. Western Michigan +14 @Illinois: They say that the best indicator of future results is past experience. In situations like this, a trap game after a big win, Illinois has been terrible under Zook. First of all. even considering a good performance by Illinois, WMU is no joke. They can move the ball through the air, and they have a very competent coach in Bill Cubit. Also remember that they beat a pretty talented Illinois team back in '08 which ended up costing the Illini a bowl berth that year. The Illini are coming off a nice victory over Arizona St last week, but a closer look at that game shows that they were lucky to win. Offensively, they didn't crack 300 yards and gave up a lot of big plays in the passing game. They were able to get some opportunistic turnovers which helped them stay in the game while they went most of the second half without recording a first down and had to almost abandon the run. I think the chances of WMU getting Illinois's best shot is almost zero, as this program is extremely prone to let downs. Combine that with the fact that WMU is pretty good, and you've got a chance for an outright WMU win. As an Illinois fan, I'll be thrilled with any kind of win, let alone a 14+ point laugher.

9. @Washington -1 v Cal: There is some conern here with Washington because their defense has been among the worst in the country. last week at Nebraska, they gave up 51 points and almost 500 yards, and they were very lucky to win their opener against Eastern Washington. Offensively, they've been good though, and I was impressed with their ability to rack up some points and yards on Nebraska in Lincoln. Their QB Keith Price looks to have settled into Sarkisian's offense, and they've good good balance with Chris Polk running the ball and Jermaine Kearse catching it. Enter Road Cal. At home, they did what they do, bludgeoning Presbyterian(??) last week, but in their previous road game, they were gashed for almost 600 yards by Colorado, and almsot 500 through the air. I would peg Washington as a bit stronger offensively than Colorado, so I think we might see some offensive foreworks here. All we need is for Washington to suck it up and beat Cal at home, which they've done the last couple times by double digits as 7 point dogs. They also won last year in Berkeley as a 7.5 dog. Cal is also 0-7 in it's last 7 trips to the non Wazzou northwest, including some hellacious blowouts.

10. Colorado +17(buy it from 16.5) @Ohio St: I can't figure this one out. Ohio State has proven that they are going to have major problems offensively this year, and on top of that, they got gashed on the ground by Miami last week. Joe Bauserman proved that he cannot lead an offense in any kind of an uncomfortable environment, and we all knew that to be the case before it happened, so no big surprise there. Many people were expecting hotshot true freshman Braxton Miller to step in early, and he probably would have from day 1 if he showed any promise at practice. Unfortunately, he was a prima donna, didn't work hard enough and bumbled his way through the preseason workouts, leaving the coaching staff no choice but to teach him a lesson and go with Bauserman. Now they have no choice. Miller will be starting, but in my opinion, it's less about who gives them the best chance to win and more about getting Miller in there to take his lumps now. Even when Ohio State was good, I don't know that I would make them this much of a favorite against a decent Pac 12 team, which is what Colorado is. The Buffs had no trouble with a decent Colorado St team on a neutral site last week, should have beaten Cal in week 2, and have proven to be more than capable on offense. I think, given the state of Ohio State right now, that the Buffs have a shot at he outright win. You might assume that Ohio State will be pissed off and just take care of business, but let me be clear...THEY DONT HAVE ANY DIFFERENCE MAKING PLAYERS. They aren't good enough to make a difference just by getting mad. They will be under a lot of pressure before the home crowd, too, as you can be sure the boo birds will be out loud and clear the first time the punter prances out there.

11. @Clemson -2.5 v Florida State: Everyone was impressed with FSUs defensive effort last week in front of the raucous Doak Campbell crowd, there's no doubt about that. Holding that offense to barely over 300 yards is a solid job. But their offense looked weak, and their offensive line can't bust a grape. I am not a fan of Clemson historically, but they held a very tricky Auburn offense to 3 points over the last 2+ quarters last week, and especially if EJ Manuel can't go(which appears likely) I'm not sure how FSU is going to get anything going on the road in a backup's first start with a terrible offensive line. Even if Manuel plays, it's not like he's Daryle Lamonica back there. Clemson will probably have some issues offensively as well, but their offense is also a tricky one, and they've got some playmakers in Andre Ellington and Sammy Watkins. No chance for a letdown here as Clemson always gets up to play the Noles. On the other hand, after that OU game, I'm afraid FSU might lay an egg. If FSU wins this one on the road..they deserve a ton of credit.

12. @Buffalo +9 v UCONN: Not sure how UCONN gets to be a favorite here. They have no offense. Period. Vandy held them to under 200 total yards to weeks ago. OK..maybe Vandy is pretty good on defense, they were on the road, etc. If there's any game that a team should be able to move the ball, it's at home against Iowa State on a short week when Iowa State is walking into the mother of all letdown situations. They managed 4.4 yards per play, which would generally land you about 110th in total offense in the country. Now they go back on the road to face Buffalo, who has looked pretty good so far this year with some BCS talent and a nice scheme. At this point, UCONN hasn't shown that they have the ability offensively to cover a spread like this.

13. Vandy +15.5 @South Carolina. Vandy is generally a thorn in the Cocks' side, having played them tough in Columbia inthe past. They also have looked very strong this year defensively, ranking 18th in the country against the run despite playing a couple teams(UCONN and Ole Miss) that people thought would have stout running games this year. Lots of buzz around SEC country that James Franklin(new coach) has them believing. Basically, Stephen Garcia has crawled back into his hole, having lost all effectiveness throwing the ball, so they've had to go almost exclusively with Marcus Lattimore, so although he's a load, they'll be playing right into Vandy's defensive strength. Both teams figure to run the ball a lot, so the clock will be ticking, making it hard to cover a big spread like this, unless they can figure out a way to keep Vandy under 10. Looks like a pretty similar game to last week's game with Navy last week.

14. @Boise St -28 v Tulsa: Unfortunately for Tulsa, their timing is not very good. They come into Boise likely without their starting QB GJ Kinne, who got hurt in the Oklahoma St game. His backup, kalen Anderson, went 6/20 with 3 INTs against a much weaker defensive team than he'll face this week. Tulsa was able to run it last week at 3 in the morning against a disinterested Okie St defense, but that won't be likely against Boise on the blue turf. Throw in the fact that Tulsa's defense is generally among the worst in FBS and that Boise needs massive ass kickings every week to win style points, and you've got yourself a recipe for disaster for the Golden Hurricane. That spread might be covered by the end of the 1st quarter.

15. @Oklahoma -19.5 v Missouri: Last year Oklahoma went into Columbia and lost, and it was a painful one for the Sooners, as they were undefeated and ranked #3. I am sure that OU is ready for payback. Consider the last time that OU faced Missouri somewhere other than Columbia. That was in 2008 in Arrowhead stadium, the Big 12 title game. Final Score, 66-21, and that Missouri team had the likes of Chase Daniel, Derrick Washington, Jeremy Maclin, etc. Now they come to Norman with James Franklin calling the shots and the Sooners looking for revenge. Defensively, Missouri was for the most part helpless against Arizona St in week 2, giving up a 25/33, 383, 4 TD 0 INT line to Brock Osweiller. You think Landry Jones and Ryan Broyles might have some success? Also, Ou's defense looked pretty darn good to me, so Franklin better bring his flak jacket. I think this one looks like a 55-17 blowout.

Others: I like Pitt (+7) to hang with Notre Dame at home. Let's see if the Irish can put togeher two good performances in a row. I know Pitt had their hearts broken last week, but I liked their ability to move the ball, and I'm still very skeptical about ND's pass defense....Not excited abut backing the Chips again, but I think Central Michigan(+22) is better than they showed last week and will give a much better performance against Michigan St this week. It'll be tough for the Spartans to have a vigorous effort after the collpase they had in South Bend last week....Another team that screwed me last week was UCLA, but I like their chances this week (+5) at Oregon St. The Beavs have shown absolutely no ability to execute on offense thus far, and appear porous on defense as well. I still think UCLA can move the ball based on what they did at Houston in week 1. the fact that Oregon St gets James Rodgers and their starting tight end this week keeps me from being overly excited about it..... Fresno is favored at Idaho(+3). Normally, this is spot where Fresno barely shows up. Also, these two teams have a common opponent, (North Dakota). Idaho blew them out and outgained them by 250, Fresno was losing to them in the 4th quarter and got outgained. .....Kind of like Wyoming getting 21.5 at home against Nebraska. Not sure what the Huskers have done to deserve these accolades, as they got outgained by Fresno and struggled with Washington at home. Defensively they have not looked good, and theiur best defender Jared Crick is injured this week. Wyoming has looked ok on offense...might be interesting....I think it's asking a lot for LSU to go on the road yet again against a good opponent and completely shut them down. The environment will be borderline apoplectic in Morgantown this week...can they dominate again. They'll have to to cover 6...that's a lot to ask, even though WV can't run to save their lives....Lastly, I think Arizona St(-2.5) will make a nice bounceback against USC. I just don't think the Trojans are all that good, and I think ASU is for real on offense. They'll be ready to play. That's it for this week. Good luck.

Week 3 Musings

Sorry for the lateness of the post.

Already week 3, or after this week, 20% of the season already gone. Maybe that's a good thing. When I was writing this crap last week, I really felt good about my sides. It was all coming easy. Well, nothing comes easy anymore. I ended up going 7-7-1(I'm taking a liberty on South Carolina because I got it at 2.5, and just about every shop had it at 2.5 starting around noon on Friday until game time.) I could bitch and moan about a couple of bad beats, most notably North Carolina (7.4 yards per play to Rutgers' 3.4) and CMU, (lead the entire game and outgained Kentucky but still found a way to not cover a DD spread), but I was fortunate in a couple too, as South Carolina was soundly outplayed and Stanford was lucky to cover. So we move on to week 3.

After 2 weeks in the season, while everybody likes to speculate on who the top teams are, it's fun when you can already determine who some of the worst teams in the country are after only 2 weeks. This year is one of those years. There are a lot of teams who have had some putrid performances. Take FAU for example. Last week at Michigan St, they managed a grand total of 48 yards. They converted one first down. One. Out of their 10 possessions, 8 of them were 3 and outs. The other two were a fumble and a 5 play drive in which they gained 2 yards. In two games, they've gotten a grand total of 185 yards. They've played MSU and Florida in those two games, so nobody expected them to thunder up and down the field, but come on.

FAU may be bad, but right now, to me, it seems as though two teams are poised to fight to the death to determine who is the worst team in FBS: UNLV and Memphis. Everyone saw how bad UNLV is during the first Thursday night of the season when they were completely helpless against my guy Russel Wilson and his new buddies at Wisconsin. That paled in comparison, though to what happened in week 2. They traveled to the Pallouse in Pullman and proceeded to get a mud hole stomped into them by previously inept Washington St. How does a 610-158 yardage discrepancy sound? Wow. The Rebs are now 6-26 in their last 32 games as a road dog. Potentially even worse was Memphis. Again, they too were prison raped in week 1 (Miss St 55-14) but even worse, they just got destroyed by Arky St, a Sun belt team. Final yardage: 611-169. This is Arkansas St we're talking about. They ought to fight to the death at some grammar school field in North Dakota to find out who sucks worse. Season totals: 13-12-1.

1. @Iowa -3 v Pitt: Iowa is of course coming off the very disappointing loss to Iowa St in 3 overtimes this past Saturday. They are well coached, and generally respond to adversity well as a result. Also, they are historically a great bet as a home favorite. Pitt is 2-0 but has been anything but impressive in the process. Though I generally like Todd Graham, the jury is still out if his whole scheme will be a fit in Pittsburgh. Their wins were over Buffalo and Maine, both of whom played them to a sandstill. I've never been an admirer of Tino Sunseri at QB, and he's back there again, at least for now. He does not appear to me to be the type of QB that would thrive in the Tulsa style offense. Indecision, slew footedness and wobbly wounded ducks normally don't work in that scheme. They will have to move the ball and show some intangibles they haven't previously had. I like Iowa to bounce back here and get a solid win.

2. Central Michigan +8 @Western Michigan: Here's a rivalry game where we have 2 teams that are in my opinion pretty interchangeable. WMU probably has a more potent offense, but Central's is no slouch as QB Ryan Radcliffe is capable of airing it out as well. Defensively, I think CMU is a bit stronger, as they were able to completely handle Kentucky save a couple big plays. CMU has owned WMU over the past few years, beating them outright as a home dog last year. To me, this spread looks bloated..I would expect to see it in the 3-4 range, definitely under a TD. Historically, the three directional Michigan schools generally have close games, regardless of what kind of year they're all having. It wouldn't surprise me at all if this one went OT, so I'll take the points that guarantee a cover in that case.

3. Duke +7 @ Boston College: Normally you'd be crazy to take Duke and only be getting a TD, but I think this looks like a pretty good spot for the Blue Devils. Their game with Stanford last week was closer than the game appeared. Duke under Renfree moved the ball pretty effectively in the air, and they look to be in a position to do so again this week. A 3rd starter from the BC secondary was lost for the year in their game last week. Duke under Cutcliffe can really throw it. Also during the week, BC lost OC Kevin Rogers for the year due to an illness. Their offense was not anything to write home about to begin with, and Montel Harris is still not back. Duke is in it's element here as a road dog as well.

4. @Colorado -7 v Colorado St: Coming into the season, Colorado State had among the fewest number of returnees who did anything significant on the field at all. No returning TDs, no playmakers on defense..mostly new people. So far this year, they've beaten Northern Colorado(who lost and was outgained the week prior by some team called Lindenwood), and New Mexico (by the skin of their teeth). Colorado badly outgained Cal last week but dropped the game in OT, this after a tough trip to the island in which they lost to Hawaii. Colorado badly needs a win here, and looking at the matchup of these two teams, I have a hard time seeing how CSU keeps pace. I think there's line value here based on the records of the teams. I would have made this one around 13 or so...I think there's value in only having to lay a TD.

5. @North Carolina -10 v Virginia: Back to the well with this UNC team. Last week, there is no doubt that the play on the field didn't match the result on the scoreboard, as Carolina predictably threw Rutgers around like a rag doll last week. They are balanced on both sides, which is more than I can say for Virginia, who crawled into a hole last week against Indiana of all people, almost blowing a 20 point second half lead. Virginia is very run oriented, and I don't see much of a chance that they can run on Carolina here, especially in their second straight road game. Their QB Rocco is mistake prone, so I doubt you'll see the turnover discrepancy in this one that you saw last week. Last year the Heels ran away and hid early in the contest in Charlottsville, and I can see a similar result this year. Could be a laugher.

6. Michigan St +5 @ Notre Dame: Since I'm Catholic and grew up rooting for Lou Holtz and company back in the 80's, I want to be a Notre Dame fan. It looked like it might get easier when they hired Brian Kelly. He seems like a perfect fit...Brian Kelly, face gets beat red when he gets mad, has a conceited streak..it's perfect. However, although I think Kelly will eventually be the answer, his players are a bunch of bumbling idiots who search high and low for ways to lose games. I understand why this line is where it is, ND is moving the ball at will, 500+ yards of offense, blah blah blah, but they are a bunch of fuckups. Does anyone really think that they can put it together and win convincingly against a good team like MSU, one that is 7-0 ATS in it's last 7 trips to South Bend. I hope they do, but with that boneheaded secondary and their penchant for screwing up everything they tough, it seems like it would be a true miracle for that to happen. I'll be stunned if this bunch puts it together enough to win, let alone cover more than a FG.

7. @UCLA +4 v Texas: Texas is coming in looking for revenge, but they'll be doing it with an offense that still has difficulty moving the ball, and with a pair of QBs who haven't played on the road before. I was disappointed by UCLA last week as a home favorite, but I still like their offense enough to think that they can out together enough offense to outscore Texas here. Both of their RBs are strong, and this outfit ran all over this Texas defense in Austin last year. they showed they have a pass offense against Houston, and there's a good chance Neuheisel kept most of his offense under wraps in the SJSU game last week. Huge public money on Texas..I'm going the other way.

8. Miami(OH) +5 @Minnesota: In retrospect, we should have faded Minnesota last week, as they were a 20 point favorite against New Mexico St. When you saw Minny with a -20 next to heir name against anybody, it should have been enough to get anyone to pull the trigger, but I couldn't make myself bet NMSU there. My mistake, as the Goofers lost outright. Now they get Miami(OH), a legitimately decent team who played Missouri to a virtual standstill two weeks ago. As Jerry Kill gets more comfortable with this team, I will probably be less inclined to go against them, but not here, when their favored. Miami is competent on both sides of the ball and well coached...certainly twice the team New Mexico State is.The wrong team is probably favored, at least at this point.

9. Navy +17(buy it) @South Carolina: There's no way I can avoid betting this game. Navy is a covering machine in games like this, especially against BCS teams. 18-6 as a road dog under Coach ken or something in that neighborhood(see the preseason musings). South Carolina has also been a fortunate bunch, getting all kinds of defensive scores that they likely will not be served up by the Middies. If USC dominates this game and wins 31-14, we still push. I haven't seen much of Kriss Proctor, the new Navy QB, but they are #1 in the country in rushing as usual. There's only one side to consider here. If South Carolina can put it on navy here, despite what they've shown so far and despite Navy's history in this spot, they can have my money.

10. Arizona St +2 @Illinois: I can see why the Illini are favored, but this would be just too cool if they took care of the SunDevils here. It's just something that the Zooker has not yet been able to accomplish...I nice non-conference win over a ranked opponent. Also, on both sides, ASU presents a tough matchup for the Illini. Tough front 7, which will make it tough to run, and a very good passing attack, which the Illini have not shown they can stop in the few instances they've faced one. The Illini are going to have to prove this one to me.

11. Kent +17 1/2 @ Kansas St: Big spread here for a team that is 2-14 in it's last 16 non-con games under Snyder. This line is where it is because Kent has laid an egg offensively the past two games, but I don't think KSt will have much success against them either. they can stop the run pretty well, as they did to some extent against Trent Richardson in week one, and that's the name of the game for K St. Not sure why K St deserves to be favored by this much based on results either, as they managed only 10 points on eastern Kentucky in their lone contest this year.

12. Buffalo +5 @Ball State: Here's another one where it looks like the wrong team is favored. Bufflao has looked pretty good in their two games, hanging in well with Pittsburgh in the first week, and taking care of a Stony Brook team that dominated UTEP the week before. Buffalo has some talent on offense, as ex Cincy OC Jeff Quinn is their coach and brought former Cincy backup QB Chaz Anderson with him. He's looked good in Brian Kelly's spread so far. ball St had a rough go with USF last week, and they have proven in the past to be a terrible favorite. I like Pete Lembo, but to me, the wrong team might be favored here as well.

13. Miami(FL) -2.5 v Ohio St: I just don't think that this OSU team is good enough to go on the road and beat Miami here. maybe past vintages would have no problem, but I am extremely skeptical that Luke Fecal and Joe Bauserman can leave the comfy confines of the horseshoe and get anything done. Miami is getting some of their players back from suspension. Miami's Achilles heel has been turnovers, especially when Jacory Harris is back there, but I don't think OSU can line up and beat them without getting turnovers. I also think Miami can surprise people and run it on the Buckeyes here.

14. @Florida St +3 v Oklahoma: It might go to 3.5, which makes it even more bettable. Okalhoma has been less than stellar in cases like this, where they go on the road in a tough, non-Oklahoma St environment. last year's games with Missouri and Texas A&M come to mind, and Florida St will be looking for blood after getting the shit kicked out of them last year. Defensively, they are ready to take on Landry Jones and Co, as they have all inds of playmakers back and have been perfect against the patsies they've played already. Offensively, they aren't as good, but OU has not been all that intimidating on that side of the ball. I just think the atmosphere and emotion of the night will carry the more motivated team here.

15. Oklahoma St -13.5 @Tulsa: Tulsa can move the ball on offense, but they have no shot to stop Okie State here. The Cowboys also have an outstanding record over the last few years as a road favorite, and they match up good against Tulsa I'm a little skeptical that Tulsa's offense is as good as previous years with the coaching change and dismissal of best player Demaris Johnson. I'm more than a little skeptical that they'll be able to get up off the floor after OSU's offense repeatedly runs them over.

16. @Arizona +9.5 v Stanford: Stanford did not dominate Duke as much as the score would indicate last week, and I think they are stepping into a tough environment here with Arizona. The Cats should have Juron Criner back this week, and there's no doubt that Nick Foles and that offense can throw it around. Az is coming off an embarrassing game at Oklahoma St last week, while Stanford is in the second of back to back games. If they come into Tucson and take care of business here, so be it, but it is asking a lot to win by DD in this one. It's a good spot for Arizona, and their offense is capable of putting up big numbers on the Cardinal. I still think the number one asset that Stanford had over the past couple of years is Harbaugh's presence, and I think they'll miss it this week.

Others: I like UCF(-6) to take care of an FIU team that only had 2 decent plays in their upset of Louisville last week. Defensively, they are very strong. The line moved 2 points in a day though, which scared me off making it a numbered musing.....Also lean to UCONN(-4) tonight in a horrible spot for Iowa St, coming off the huge win over Iowa, I would be surprised if they can go on the road after that game and avoid mistakes against a good defense like UCONN....Auburn(+3) is such a bunch of lucky fucks, I'll bet they squeak out a win against that imbecile Dabo Swinney.....I was ready to pull the trigger on Army(+6), but they moved from 9.5 to 6 in a flash. Northwestern is generally not a good favorite in spots like this, and Army can match up with them do to their lack of physicality.....I have a hunch that Syracuse(+17) hangs around with USC out west. They can throw the ball a bit and generally play decent defense, they can't run to save their lives though.....That's it, hope everyone has a great week!!

Week 2 Musings

Well, since I'm quite used to having sub .500 weeks over th past couple years, I have to admit it was nice to get off to a decent start in week 1. 6-5 for the numbereds. Some good calls, a couple of terrible ones. Going against LSU when they were dogged on a neutral site was a fatal mistake. Naturally, they luckboxed their way to a couple TDs off when Oregon's return teams shat the bed, but i should have known that Less would be the recipient of good fortune. I mean, it's only the 90th game in a row that it's worked out for him that way. Not rocket science. Nevertheless, a positive week, and even moreso if you decided to listen to the also rans, which went a perfect 5-0. Not that this will continue, mind you.

No play on the Thursday nighter, obviously. The prospect of a drooling Mike Stoops trying to figure out how to stop the Cowboy attack had me off of Arizona, and I hate laying more than 2 scores against a competent offense. So no play.

Do I even need to talk about the uniform debacles of this week. Georgia stole their uniforms from UNLV, then went out and played like them. I don't know how many times I have to repeat this, but UGA's uni's are among the best in the country, especially their homes. The great red jerseys with the gray britches..simple stripe pattern down the side instead of the forced Nike swoosh. Perfect. Maryland's abominations shouldn't even be given confirmation that they exist. I felt bad for the original Jeff LaVette, having to witness those things a mere night before going in for major tune up. It's a truibute to him that he was able to turn in such a workmanlike but rapid recovery despite having been subjected to the visual germs of the gay taxi driver uniforms. http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/college/2011/09/06/2011-09-06_marylands_special_football_uniforms_slammed_by_pundits_fans_after_debut_on_monda.html.

By the way...I'm catching a bit of this NFL game as I write this, and I have to ask...Did the lockout settlement include some sort of new rule that forbids defenses to cover anyone?


On to this week. This is one of those weeks where I've got an opinion on almost every game. Lots of plays. It's risky. As the great and newly minted Hall Of Famer Richard Dent once said, "Somethin' might good happen, somethin' might bad happen."

Friday:

1. @Arizona St -7 v Missouri: First of all, it's always tough to go out west and play well. But this is especially true when you have a QB making his first start on the road, against an attacking defense. Even worse is when that QB can't complete a pass more than 5 yards downfield. James Franklin went 17-26 for 129 yards. 7.58 yards per completion...get that kid in an NFL camp immediately!! This was at home against Miami(OH), now he has to test his mettle on the road. The Tigers also saw their starting RB go down with a serious injury(broken fibula I think.) ASU is healthy and ready to make a statement after a couple years of missing bowls. I like their skill people. *****Late note....this line has just jumped from 7 to 9 overnight and is now 9.5!!(wrote this part last night, now back this AM). Tread lightly. Lucky for me, I got it in at 7 earlier this week. Maybe it will drop again by game time. *******

2. San Diego St - 9 1/2 @Army: I really don't have anything against the Black Knights, but here they are again in a bad matchup. Last week it was NIU, who completely destroyed them with their running game. Now SDSU comes in to Michie stadium, itself with a punishing running game and a well balanced offense. RB Ronnie Hillman ran for 1500+ yards last year at 6 yards a pop, and their entire line is back. Army's defensive line is a mess with injuries(two starters lost last week) and they had questionable talent to start with. On the flip side, SDSU is very experienced against the wishbone, since they play Air Force every year and just got done shutting down two option attacks in their last two games(Navy in the bowl and Cal Poly last week). Rocky Long can handle this Army offense, especially since Trent Steelman has proven beyond any reasonable doubt that he absolutely cannot throw the ball. Army was down last week to NIU 49-6 after 3 quarters and it wasn't even that close. the only hesitation here is that SDSU is coming across the country and playing a 9AM game on their body clocks. Other than that, all the signs point to Army being completely unable to stop the Aztecs.

3. Central Michigan +10 1/2 @ Kentucky: It's hard to believe, but Kentucky failed to crack the 200 yard mark in their opener last week in Nashville against Western Kentucky. I knew that they would be missing some pieces on offense, but that was a pathetic effort. It's becoming more evident that they were extremely reliant on new NFL star Randall Cobb last year for just about everything on offense. There is practically nothing left as far as explosiveness on offense. CMU didn't blow the doors off of South Carolina St in their opener either, but they have plenty coming back on offense from a pretty reliable offense last year that almost beat Navy and Northwestern on the road. CMU also held SCSU to 135 yards total offense. Again...it's hard to cover a significant number when you can't move the ball.

4. Toledo +19 @Ohio St: I'm really surprised that this line hasn't climbed, as 77% of the public is on the Buckeyes, and I would imagine the line looks pretty tasty to your average chalk player. This is a situation that I've been looking to exploit since the middle of the summer, so now that it's here, I have to jump on it, even though I would have expected a little bit better value. One happy occurrence of week 1 was that Ohio State completely blew the doors off Akron, which I expected because Akron is one of the 5 worst teams in the FBS. This week, OSU gets Toledo...a real team with a real offense. Defensively, I think Toldeo is a bit weak, but I don't think anyone is trembling at the thought of facing an unleashed Joe Bauserman. Toldeo has enough talent on offense to seriously challenge OSU and their questionable playmaking talent. It wouldn't surprise me to turn on that game late in the third and see Toledo up in the contest.

5. @North Carolina -10 v Rutgers: UNC has of course had a rough last few weeks, as it took the administration about 18 months to determine what they should have known about Butch Davis after about 6 months. However, they have themselves a nice match-up this week against Rutgers. It appears that Carolina has several strengths. Most notably, their front 7 is very good, at least among their starters. I don't think Rutgers will have much shot at moving the ball in this one, especially not on the ground. For crying out loud, they couldn't run it against NC-Central, which is a glorified community college in the Raleigh Durham hood as I understand it(Haas could confirm perhaps). I'm actually surprised that NC-Central didn't trot out there in blue jeans and mismatched ill-fitting shirts. In that game, Rutgers rushed for less than 3.5 ypc. Agaisnt North Carolina Central!!! Last year, they only cracked 4 ypc in a game once against an FBS opponent(Tulane). They even rushed for negative yards twice, against the defensive juggernauts of Army and Cincinnati. They will not be able to move the ball on UNC's defense. Offensively, UNC throttled a normally solid FCS team in James Madison, who beat VT just one year ago. QB Brynn Renner completed 22-23 passes in the game. He's got some good receivers and most of his line back. Unless Rutgers D has a game of a lifetime, they are looking at a significant loss here.

6. Tulsa -12 @Tulane: The line is skewed because of a poor performance by Tulsa against OU. However, with the amount of talent returning for Tulsa, they are going to be an effective squad this year, especially offensively. All 5 lineman and the top 3 running backs return. Tulane looks to be in big trouble in this game, as their three top safeties all got hurt in their opener, a game in which they were outgained against SE Louisiana. That's bad news for them, especially as they match up against Tulsa's spread, an offense that has not exactly been "Tulane friendly" over the past few years. In the last 5 years, Tulsa has beaten Tulane by the following scores: 38-3, 49-25, 56-7, 37-13 and 55-24. I think the talent level of this year's edition of these teams is about as it always is, and I see no reason that Tulsa doesn't come out and take care of business as usual against the Green Wave.

7. Stanford -20 @Duke: I almost feel ashamed playing this one because it's such an obnoxious public play, and I think Stanford in the long run will prove to be overrated, but they should roll here. Duke, in situations like this(at home vs top 10 level teams) has been completely non-competitive, especially on defense. They might be able to toss the ball around a little bit with QB Renfree and some nice receivers returning in Cutcliffe's solid scheme, but chances are they'll get slapped around like they did last year when Alabama came in to Durham and scored TDs on the first 7 possessions. I see a 55-14 type game here.

8. @East Carolina +18 v Virginia Tech: Last week, VT kicked off their season against Appy St and the results couldn't have been any better. They came out like gangbusters against a team that most would assume might compete for the FCS championship. The game was over by halftime, and everything that could have gone well for the Hokies went fantastically. New Qb Logan Thomas looked sharp, they ran it, they played great defense. You name it, they did it impressively. So impressively, in fact, that the college president stumbled into the locker room at halftime and gave Frank Beamer a contract extension. True story. Now they go on the road to face ECU, who had some bad fortune in the game with South Carolina. One thing we can be sure of about ECU over the past year or so is that they will score. We've also learned that they will give up points, but a closer look at the South Carolina boxscore shows that they competed pretty well in that game on a neutral site. Now they go home for their chance to take on a big opponent, who is coming off a game in which they couldn't have looked any better. VT is going to have a great year this year, but that doesn't mean they won't have any hiccups. I see ECU being competitive in this one, especially in the new QBs first road start. This line however, is dropping..I would want at least 17 for the record.

9. @Colorado +6 v California: Since '07, Cal is 3-11 as a road favorite, and Colorado is 8-3 as a home dog. I thought Cal would resemble "road Cal" more than they would resemble "Home Cal" last week, and I apologize for that. This week they go on the road at altitude with a new QB. Last week Colorado looked weak on offense, but held Bryant Moniz and Hawaii under 200 yards passing, which to me is pretty impressive. It's a revenge game for the Buffs who got blown out in Berkeley last year despite only giving up 356 yards of offense.(5 TOs). I think they'll do a better job of hanging on to the ball this year, and if they do, they have a great shot at pulling out the outright upset, similar to last year when they knocked off Georgia at this time of year.

10. South Carolina -3 @Georgia: You might be able to find this at 2.5, but the majority of the sites have it at 3, so I'll leave it there. mark Richt is under tons of pressure in this one, coming off such an unimpressive performance against Boise last week and on the heels of a disastrous season last year. It's almost as if Georgia can't get out of it's own way these days, with Richt playing the role of Charlie Brown. ("Everything I touch gets ruined!!!")Generally, you would think that Georgia would have the talent edge in this contest, but in my opinion, it's not even close. Georgia's offensive line is likely to be dominated by SC's front 4..I think Aaron Murray is going to be running for his life. They still don't have any playmakers on offense, and that is in direct contrast to SC, who has plenty on both sides of the ball. You hate to lay wood on the road in the SEC, but this is a sinking ship in Athens. If they win this game, it will be due to plays being made by someone who has never made a difference in a game before. I think that scenario is unlikely.

11. Temple -15 @Akron: Akron is just an atrocious football team. I think everyone will see that when we look back and they were the only team on Ohio State's schedule other than Indiana that got pasted by the Buckeyes. They can't stop a soul on defense, their coach is completely overmatched and they bring new meaning to the word "inept" on offense. Last year Temple shut them out, holding them to 154 total yards. For the most part, other than Al Golden, Temple's team is back intact, most importantly their QB Mike Gerardi and their pair of RB's Bernard Pierce and Matt Brown. In past years, Temple has had dogfights in their opener with Philly rival Villanova, having gone to OT with them 3 out the last 4 years. Not this year, as they blew out Nova 42-7 with almost 500 yards of offense. Under new coach Steve Addazio, I think they'll have a more competent offense than they did under Golden, and their defense won't have any problem stopping the borderline homosexual offense of Akron.

12. Virginia -6 1/2 @Indiana: I almost took a chance on Ball State last week in their neutral site tilt with IU, but when the line dropped to under 6, I was no longer a player, having seen Ball St play many times since Brady Hoke left. Unfortunately for me, and IU, they absolutely dominated the line of scrimmage and beat the Hoosiers outright. Indiana simply could not stop them from running. They actually looked pretty good on offense, executing what they wanted to, but still lost. Not a good sign. Now Virginia comes in, and they actually have a pretty highly touted offensive line, and a much better defense than BSU. They ran all over William and Mary, another capable Colonial team last week. I think there's a chance that IU gets their doors blown off in this one, and even if they play well, they could still lose by a couple scores.

13. Northern Illinois -4 1/2 @Kansas: People need to start paying attention to this NIU team. Offensively, they are a handful, as they run all over people, and QB Chandler Harnish has been among the most efficient QBs in the country over the past year. Army is not anywhere near as good as they were last year, but they are a well coached team that normally hangs with most. NIU completely overwhlemed them last week, as I've mentioned earlier. Now they go to Kansas, who was ranked 107th against the run last year. Even though people didn't need to throw on them as a result, they stunk against the pass too. Are they better this year? Probably, but it's mostly the same suspects on both sides of the ball. In their opener, they beat McNeese St by 18, but gave up over 400 yards of offense and 9/16 on 3rd downs. I don't think KU will have much success stopping this NIU offense. If Army came into Lawrence, KU would be about a 7 point favorite. NIU is the better team here..I think by a lot.

14. Ball State +21(buy it up if necessary) @USF: Everybody saw what USF did at Notre Dame last week. They won, now they're ranked, Skip Holtz made the rounds on all the sports talk shows, it was a glorious day for the Bulls. But I'm sure that those of you reading this, astute college football savants that you are, all noticed that the victory was done with smoke and mirrors as much as anything else. It's a perfect time to go against the Bulls here. In the ND game, the Irish turned it over 3 times inside the 5, one of which was taken back to the house for a score. ND piled up 500+ yards of offense, USF had half of that. I told you before the game that I was very sleptical of USF's offense, and I remain that way. 3.5 yards per play. If you're playing Alabama, you're Kent State that's understandable. ND is getting better, but they are not a dominant outfit. They couldn't run it, and BJ Daniels had only 128 yards passing and needed 18 completions to get that much. Ball State is coming off a game in which they physically dominated Indiana on a nuetral site. No great shakes, but I think there's some significance to it. I like their new coach quite a bit, and I like their chances to compete in this one, since they appear to have the chops to hold USF's pedestrian offense to 350 yards or less. It's hard to cover a big number if you struggle to move the ball. Chances are they won't have a horseshoe up their anuses for a second week in a row.

15 @UCLA -21 v San Jose St: UCLA actually impressed me last week, while at the same time being stand up enough guys to not cover and help the musings stagger to a slightly over .500 start. I watched a good portion of that game, and I'm still waiting for Houston to actually stop UCLA's offense. Jonathan Franklin, UCLA's go to back had 126 yards on 16 carries, almost 8 yards a pop. The Bruins passed for 322 yard on only 29 attempts, a whopping 11 yards per attempt. Most of this was done with backup QB Richard Brehaut, after starter Kevin Prince got hurt. I'm still not sure how they lost that game. Keenum was good, but he didn't shred them, and UCLA outgained them by 100 yards on the same number of total plays. Whatever, I'll take it, along with the line value they get this week. SJSU is coming off a 57-6 shellacking at Stanford. It wasn't as bad as the score indicated, but they have a habit of turning in results like that. I do know that if UCLA is motivated, the Spartans have very little chance of stopping them. With any kind of decent performance, UCLA should have that spread covered by halftime.

Others: (Yes..there are others):........Wake is a 2 point home dog vs NC State. They looked pretty good in their opener and should have beaten Syracuse, but fell apart after Qb Tanner Price got hurt. He's back this week. NC State has a new QB that I don't trust and we all know the rule on NC State. Play the dog when they are on the road.....I'll be on Wisconsin -20.5 at home against the Beavs of Oregon State. OSU lost to Sac St in their opener, and couldn't throw the ball to save their lives. The relied on a freshman RB to carry it 34 times in order to move the ball. That won't work against the Badgers, and they'll need at least 17 points on the board if they want to cover this number....I think Mississippi St (-5.5) is the better team by a lot against Auburn, but I have a hard time recommending laying a significant number with them in this spot. MSU is favored by almost a TD on the road against the defending MNC who is currently on a 15 game winning streak? And they live with horseshoes shoved up their rectums? Miss St should score at will on them, and I'll be betting on them, but the intangibles keep this from being a musing.....I don't see any way that Penn State is going to score on Alabama. At the same time, Bama's young Qbs threw 4 picks last week at home against Kent St, so they might give the Nits a short field here and there. It'll be worth watching, but I see a repeat of last year's game here. Maybe a bit closer, 24-10....Houston shouldn't have much of a problem covering (-22) on the road at North Texas, as they should be able to score at will. The only risk there is that the back door will be wide open on Houston's defense....Looking at this ND/Michigan game, I would never in my right mind lay more than a FG (-3.5)with a team as intangibly inept as ND is, especially against a team that appears to have a LOT of fluky plays in it's future like Michigan, but it sets up good for them this week. Hugely misleading final scores for both teams last week. Michigan didn't show any signs of being able to stop a good passing attack, so ND should move the ball on them. Unfortunately for ND, moving the ball isn't the object, scoring points is. But ND is the better team.

That's it for this week. Good Luck to all.

Week 1 Musings

So here we go again. A pretty solid record in the early years of the musings have given way to back to back years of sub .500 regular season records. Last year we ended up at 78-88. That's about a worst case scenario because even if you were understandably fading the plays, they didn't even fail good enough to make you any money. Completely good for nothing was this collection last season. So we trudge on this year..do what you will with them.

I should probably take this time to say 'Happy Trails" to former Cubs GM Jim Hendry who was fired a couple weeks ago. His being in the team's rearview window allows Cubs fans to dream about a sustained period of relevance, one that was not previously possible due to Hendry's Neanderthal views about what wins in baseball. The Cubs remain one of the few organizations in baseball who still value things such as athleticism, plate coverage, batting average, pitcher wins and saves more than they value OBP, slugging %, WHIP and other things that actually help you win when you concentrate on them. I could literally fill up about 5,000 words going over all the disatrous moves that he made. Having said that, Hendry had his positives. He was an absolute prince of a guy, one that everyone in baseball liked and respected. He could trade with any GM, he could work with any agent and his general demeanor was the biggest reason that the Cubs were a major player with any free agent that they cared to be a player for. He also had a hand in 3 division titles. At the end of the day, however, the fact that there no longer existed an open checkbook to cover his mistakes ultimately meant the end of the line. Although I'm glad it happened, I can still say, "Thanks Jim, for being a stand up guy."

I must say that after a couple years of some pretty good Thursday nighters on openeing weekend, this year's Thursday slate is total garbage. The best game is between two probable cellar dwellers in their conferences, Wake and Syracuse. For that reason, I am laying off any musings from Thursday. The two I considered were Wake +7 @Syracuse, mostly as a fade of the Orange who lost each game last year outright that they were favored in at home against a BCS opponent. However, the line dropped under a TD, and Wake looks to be in such disarray on both sides of the ball right now that I can't make a committment to them. And apparently they're soft too. Consider this quote by Jim Grobe about one of his WRs (Chris Givens) during fall practice this year. "Getting Mike Campanaro back is really, really big because we're having so many problems with Chris Givens,'' Grobe said. "Chris has just been really soft. He's not a very dependable guy for us right now.
"Chris's problem is he's not a natural catching the football. It's not a given, no pun intended, that he's going to go catch the football. He's got to work on that, and the only way you get good at that is get a lot of reps.
"Standing around in the shade and going back to the spa doesn't get you ready at this level.''

Wow. So I held off on Wake. I also thought hard about Wisconsin because UNLV has a 6-24 record ATS in their last few years as a road dog. 36 is a load of points though, and though they added my guy Russell Wilson to the mix, there's no margin for error when the spread gets as high as this.

Oh I almost forgot. ESPN aired one of their "season preview shows wher they invite a bunch of "experts" to reak down the comings and goings of the upcoming season. Naturally, since he is the irresistible force, Matt Millen was asked to provide his usual brand of expertise. Ask and you shall receive, regarding the Miami Hurricanes, who he will be covering on Labor Day night. Before you watch this, I just want to mention that Jarrett Lee plays for LSU.

http://awfulannouncing.com/2011-articles/august/matt-millen-jarrett-lee-miami-qb-lsu-espn-sportscenter.html

Unbelieveable. This thing aired Tuesday. The game is in 6 days. He's covering it, and it just now appears to be occuring to him that he might want to take in a practice. Apparently he's been showing the proper respect to his craft and has been studying furiously. Someone shoot this moron immediately. I am not kidding about that. If he died tomorrow, I think I'd throw out my shoulder from the enthusiastic fist pump upon hearing the news.

On to the carnage.

1. TCU -4 1/2 @ Baylor(Friday night): I believe that this line started at -10 and has moved all the way down to 4 1/2. The movement is probably due to the appearance that TCU is in rebuild mode and that Baylor has most of it's skill people back, most notably QB Robert Griffin, from an offense that averaged 475 yards per game last year. Unfortunately for them, one team that they did NOT have success agaisnt last year was TCU, who held them to 263 yards. TCU also torched them for 558. Did I mention that Baylor's defense was a laughingstock last year? Well, if you give up 635 yards of offense in a game(as they did to Texas Tech) and that's not even close to bad as you did in another game(735 to Okie St), that qualifies you as a laughingstock. 6 of their 7 top tacklers are gone from that defense, which might end up being a good thing. The bottom line is that Baylor simply does not beat good teams. In their record breaking bowl season last year, they beat zero teams with a winning record and got destroyed by a 6-6 Illinois team in the bowl. TCU might be rebuilding (new QB, only 8 starters eturning), but they are a stud program now and Gary Patterson certainly knows what he's doing. They appeared to be in rebuild mode two years ago as well, and they ran the table in the regular season with a bunch of guys nobody had previously heard of. If Baylor comes out and trades blows with TCU here, I'll take my medicine, but given the recent history of these two programs, I like my chances with TCU winning this one comfortably.

2. Middle Tennessee St +18 @Purdue: This game has become a play due to the fact that some schlep from Metamora, IL named Caleb TerBush(???) is starting for Purdue at QB in this one. Who is he? Well, he'll be the 6th loser to be tried at QB since Danny Hope has arrived on the scene. Not that it's Hope's fault...these guys are about as durable as Rosie O'Donnel's toothpick chair. The funny thing is that although TerBush has been in the program for 3 years, this is his first shot at starting. They've done all they could to avoid using him, but if he's the last man standing, after Rob Henry tore his ACL and Robert Marve's most recent ouchie hasn't healed, he's their only choice. He doesn't have much talent, as his career line of 4-11 for 20 yards, 0 TD's and 2 INTs would suggest. He's also not the sharpest tool in the shed, as he was ineligible last year. Last year, when they had their number 1 (Marve) starting, they only beat Western Illinois by 10, a putrid Ball State team by 11 and lost ourtright to Toledo(soundly). So now, with this oaf in there, their supposed to cover 18? Certainly, MTSU is no Bama, or even Toledo for that matter, but all we need them to be is WIU. They have a solid coach and some decent talent returning. Once again, if TerBush leads them to something they haven't seen in Hope's tenure, so be it, but unless they get a slew of defense/ST scores, I think they'll be hard pressed to blow anyone out.

3. @Boston College -3 v Northwestern: The world loves Northwestern this year, as everybody and their brother is calling them a darkhorse in the B10. This line is going all over the place, but I suspect it will end up here when all is said and done. It was sitting at around 2 for most of the week, then shot up to -4 1/2 when rumors that Persa won't be ready circulated. I actually kind of liked BC with or without Persa, so I'm ready to roll the dice on the Eagles regardless. We're talking about a BC defense that was tops in the country against the run and in the top 5 nationally last year. This year, they return just about everyone except cancer survivor Mark Herzlich on defense. We're also talking about a Northwestern defense that was completely helpless towards the end of the season last year, utterly unable to stop any semblance of a rushing attack, or any kind of attack for that matter. BC brings back their improving QB from last year and all his receivers. Although RB Montel Harris is banged up and won't play, I think that they'll be able to muster up a running attack at home, just like they always do. I'll be rooting for the Cats, but I think this is asking too much of them.


4. @USC -23 v Minnesota: New coach, new QB, long road trip against a tough opponent...it all spells disaster for the Gophers. Obviously, USC is not the USC we all have grown accustomed to over the past several years, but they're getting there. Without 4 year starter Adam Weber behind center, it appears that new QB MarQueis Gary is going to have a rough go against the Trojans. I just can't see any way they put up any meaningful points, and they look to be just as weak as they always are on the defensive side of the ball. That's not a good sign when Matt Barkley returns coming off a 26/12 ratio in a season in which most of his receivers were hurt.

5. @Houston -3 v UCLA: The Bruins have struggled mightily as a road dog, 4-12 ATS under Neuheisel. Last year, this was the famous game in which Houston lost All Star QB Case Keenum and his backup in their game in the Rose Bowl. UCLA rolled to victory on turnovers, but they were outgained in the game by a Houston team with it's 3rd string QB and a bad defense. Now the Cougs have Keenum back, he of the 15k+ career passing yards as well as most of their production in the skill areas. If UCLA is going to hang, they will have to come up with much more than the 368 yards they managed on Houston's pedestrian defense last year. I think Keenum makes mincemeat out of them. They are extremely young on defense this year.


6. @NIU -10 v Army: At first I looked at this one and thought I might enjoy the points, but I think Army is going to have a heck of a time stopping Northern in this one. NIU was among the best running teams in the country last year at 6.3 ypc. All 5 OL return as does shifty QB Chandler Harnish, who also managed a 21/5 ratio and 65% completions. Army is little on the D line...I think they are in for a very long day on that side of the ball. On the flip side, NIU loses some starters on defense, but a ton of lettermen return, and new coach Dave Doeren is a defensive guy who had a lot of success as DC at Wisconsin. Another factor to consider is that when Army lines up against superior competition, once they fall behind, they have a hard time coming back because of their utter lack of a passing game leads to lots of piling on due to turnovers/bad breaks. I don't think 10 is all that much to ask NIU to cover in this one.

7. Miami(OH) +21 @ Missouri: Miami has struggled in these trips to Columbia before, but I think they have a shot at staying close in this one this year. They are the returning MAC champs, coming off a 10-4 campaign after losing 10 games the previous year. Both of the QBs who effectively split time last year are back, 4 of their 5 OL are back and they return their top 8 tacklers. Among their returning guys on defense, they had an amazing 19 INTs and 31 sacks, so there is all kinds of playmaking ability on a defense that will be facing a first time QB(James Franklin) who admittedly had a very shaky fall camp. I also think that they got a coaching upgrade with the offseason merry go 'round. Their previous guy was Mike Heywood, the guy who Pitt hired and then fired when he ended up in jail for beating up his baby mama. Nice example for urban youth that you want to keep on the straight and narrow. They ended up with Don Treadwell, previous OC at Michigan State who is among the most respected assistants in the country and is a perfect fit for Miami. Also, Mizzou has all kinds of guys banged up on defense, and the latest report is that 4 starters are questionable due to various ailments. You might have to buy a 1/2 pt to get 21, but I think taking the 3 TDs here in this matchup is definitely the value side.

8. Fresno St +9 1/2(I'd buy to 10) @Cal: You might wonder why in the world I would ever bet against Home Cal, since unsuspecting non elite teams go in to Berkeley and end up with beat up anuses. I'll grant you that. But unfortunately for Cal, their stadium is undergoing renovation this year so all their home games are being played in Pac Bell park or whatever they call the Giants stadium these days. So this is pretty much a quasi neutral site game. Meathead Pat Hill should be glad about that, because it plays right into his tired motivational ploys that lead to Fresno being a good bet as a nonconference dog. Taking a look at Cal, there's nobody on the roster that appears to have any serious competence at QB. We know that it isn't Brock Mansion, the guy who took over when Kevin Riley got hurt last year. (48% compl, 2/5 ratio). It might be former Buffalo QB Zack Maynard, but he stunk at Buffalo. No more Shane Vereen, a mostly new OL, you get the picture. This situation is traditionally right in Fresno's wheelhouse, and as we've seen, Cal is a different squad, even kind of cowardly when they are away from that stadium in Berkeley. Also, David Carr's little brother is taking over the QB duties at Fresno, and reports are that he's every bit as good as his brother.(College version of course).

9. Oregon -1 v LSU: Actually, I have no idea what this spread is...I'm taking the consensus page at covers's number. Even if it goes to 4 or so, i would play the Ducks. It's unfortunate that Jordan Jefferson got suspended because in my opinion, his presence in the game means little to the ultimate outcome, but it will certainly effect how many points to have to lay when fading LSU. I think this game is going to come down to how well oregon stops LSU in the running game, because that is going to be LSU's MO here. The biggest personnel loss for LSU is Russell Shepard, who is easily their most explosive playmaker. Without him, they have Rueben Randle, and that's about it at this point. Oregon returns just about all of the pieces that made up that record setting offense last year, especially QB Thomas and RB James, both of whom are from Texas and will be fired up. There's some attention being paid to the fact that Oregon struggled against Auburn in the MNC game last year, and LSU is a stronger defensive outfit than Auburn, but Chip Kelly, although a questionable charachter, is no dummy. Now that he's seen SEC speed in the flesh, I expect he'll have some tricks up his sleeve for LSU. In order to beat Oregon, LSU needs to be at full strength and there's been too much going on in that program, what with the late changes to their coordinators and now with the bar fight. I like the Ducks in this one.

10 Boise St -3 1/2 v Georgia: Although this is a neutral site game, most observers agree that it'll be pretty much a home atmosphere for Georgia. Whatever...Boise has thrived on situations like this for a long time. Georgia has a very good young QB in Aaron Murray, but as far as returning playmakers, that's about it. They will be very reliant on a freshman RB, and their OL is already depleted. They've had to deal with suspensions and a couple injuries as well. Looking at their roster, there's ust not much there to get excited about. People are also saying that Georgia needs the game in Athens against South Carolina in week 2 a hell of a lot more than they need this one, so there's always the motivational issue to think about. That's obviously not the case with Boise. As usual, their season hinges on winning this game, and this year, since Georgia is no great shakes, they probably think they have to win soundly. I think they'll be motivated to do that, and they have the personnel with Kellen Moore, Doug Martin, 8 of their top 10 O lineman back and 6 of their front seven back to pull it off.

11. @Texas -24 (and climbing) v Rice: Not that it matters, I think Texas will win this one with great ease. Their utter collapse last year had this line down in the 22 range earlier this week, but bettors are starting to realize what a mistake that line is and pound the Longhorns. Although they went 5-7 last year and couldn't do a damn thing right, they still outgained opponants by 90+ yards per game. it was just one of those years. I don't think they'll be back to the level that they've regularly enjoyed over the past 7-8years this year, but they'll certainly be good enough to name the score against Rice, especially in Austin. Traditionally, Texas is a 35 point favorite in this game, and the talent differential is on par with previous years here in my opinion. Texas will have extra motivation is normally doesn't have in a gam like this, as they are out to prove something, and both new coordinators want to prove their worth. I think Texas lays some major wood to the Owls here.


Others: Auburn might have a tussle on their hands with Utah State. USU looks like they might have some explosiveness on offense and Auburn is prone to giving up big plays. They are also trying out new people, and will probably be sleepwalking through this one. 23 isn't enough for me though for this one to be a musing.....Arkansas St is catching a lot agaisnt the Illini, and they provide things that usually give the Illini problems, a good passing attack and a competent front seven. Finally, we get a bit of class relief in our opener, and the schedule sets up very well for the Zooker, but it would be just like the Zooker to drop a game like this...he has to cover 20 1/2..that's a lot......Although I like Western Michigan's team, I have a feeling that Michigan(-14) is going to come out like gangbusters in their first game under Hoke.....ND is laying 10 at home to Skip Holtz and USF. What has ND done to deserve this respect? I guess because they beat a disinterested Miami team and a Barkley-less, shell of itself USC team at the end of last year. I really don't like USF's offense, so it's keeping me away from this one, but if I played a side, it would definitely be USF. I like Todd Graham, but should Pitt be a 30+ favorite over anyone, even Buffalo? He brought his DC with him from Tulsa, so Pitt's tough D personna is out the window, That'll be interesting to watch.


That's it for now. Good luck in Week 1!!!!!