Week 5 Musings

A crappy 6-8-1 week that could have been worse since Syracuse got a gift win. Of course, there were some tough beats in there too...Ohio had a million bad breaks in their game with Rutgers, Boise was up 27 at the half and then inexplicably sat Kellen Moore for the final 25 minutes of the game, which I have never seen them do before. Whatever. 27-28-2 for the year.
I just got done watching "Catching Hell" the ESPN documentary about Steve Bartman. Hyun, your buddy who made "Chasing October" was prominently featured in it, if you didn't see it. I was skeptical about watching it because that whole episode angers me on so many levels, but I actually thought it was really well done. They did a fantastic job of finding the other fans in his section and getting very interesting comments from them about how things happened that night. But they didn't touch completely on a couple things that bother me. Obviously, most, if not all fans would have reached up for that ball, just as Bartman did. But they would do that not as a conscious selfishness of wanting the ball, but because of pure instinct and complete ignorance to the concept that the ball might be playable for Alou.

How astute of a fan would you have to be to look at your seat, look down at the field, think to yourself "Ok...I'm well above the field, but I'm only about 9.5 feet above the field of play, and if the ball comes right to my seat, the left fielder might have a play." Then, when the ball is coming straight toward him, in a packed house with nowhere to go, he realizes that there might be a play on it, boxes out the rest of the fans so Alou can catch it? 99.9% of fans would have done the same thing.. If the play happened at field level, near 1st or 3rd base, maybe someone would act differently, and think to get out of the way, but not in those seats up there.

So all of those meathead jackasses who were yelling "asshole", or throwing beer on him or taking swings at him as he was taken out of the stadium, the exact same thing would have happened if they were sitting in those seats. I also think this whole episode would have been a footnote if Alou had simply gone back to his position instead of throwing a temper tantrum.

Also, how about that night of baseball on Wednesday night? A couple of colossal collapses were solidified and put to bed when Atlanta lost and the Red Saux blew their lead and then watched Tampa walk off with a win. I was disappointed to see Atlanta lose because it meant that my least favorite team made the postseason. I guess praying with all your heart and soul while clutching your Cardinals teddy bears works after all. I used to root for the Red Sox, but now that they've won a couple times and I've seen Red Sox fan invasions of visiting areas (as well as greater Fort Myers during spring training) I'm more than ok with some pain for that fanbase. I also got a taste of Massachusetts again 2 weeks ago while attending a family wedding. I like the area, but I saw enough ponytailed bearded delinquents and black-toothed, meth addicted skanks to satisfy my urge to visit there ever again. Today, that whole population is on suicide alert, and I am just fine with it. So.., to Fitz, Murph, Sully and the rest of all you low lives out there, I'll quote the great Nelson Muntz. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIrhVo1WA78.


1. Utah State +8 @BYU(Friday night!!): BYU had a horseshoe up their collective asses last week as they should have lost outright to Central Florida, but caught all kinds of breaks in breaking a kickoff return for a score and also jumping on 4 inopportune UCF fumbles. They managed only 260 yards and got outgained by a relatively weak offensive squad by 139 yards. I guess an outright loss wouldn't have been so far fetched since they were only a 1.5 point favorite. This week they are laying 8 against a Utah State team that is in my opinion just as good as UCF. Defensively, they are shockingly ranked 8th in yards per play against. They are 10th in rush defense while BYU is ranked 111th offensively. On offense, they are 6th in ypc and 17th overall in yards per play while BYU is very average. Don't forget that Utah St manhandled BYU last year in Logan, 31-16 while outgaining them by 100 yards and gaining 6.2 yards per play while BYU could only manage 4.1 ypp and under 2.5 yards per pop on the ground. Utah State is better this year, with a better QB and the return of home run threat Robert Turbin. who missed the season last year. Utah State knows they can win, and I think they'll have the better of the scrimmaging. As long as the Aggies can avoid a total turnover meltdown, I think they'll have a great shot at the outright win.

2. Northwestern +10 @Illinois: Statistically, this one kind of looks like a mismatch for the Illini, but I have a rotten feeling about this one for the my team. They are actually looking 2 weeks ahead, dreaming of how awesome it will be to be 6-0 when Ohio State comes to Champaign on October 14th. Dan Persa will finally be back, so you can expect a surge in Northwestern's passing numbers. The Illini should be able to run at will on the 'Cats, but they have had a penchant toward fumbling and playing to the competition this year. Again, as a fan, I'll be thrilled with an outright win...I would be very surprised if the Zooker will be able to take it to Coach Fitz and his Young Men 2 years in a row.

3. Tulane +7 @Army: Army has been pretty good at home this year, but not in this role. After last week's bludgeoning at Ball St, Army is now 5-13 as a favorite over the past 10 years. They don't have much experience in this role, and when they find themselves in it, they are used to failing. Tulane comes in at 2-2, having taken it on the chin to Tulsa and Duke in their losses. In both cases, however, they were more competitive than the final score indicated. Tulsa is one of the better running teams around, having run all over Okie St a couple weeks ago, but Tulane held them to a reasonable 4.5 yards per carry. In their blowout win at UAB, another team that historically runs it well, they held the Blazers to almost nothing on the ground. For the year, they are a respectable 41st against the run. On the flipside, Army's defense is terrible, ranked 112th overall and 116th against the pass. Tulane's offense isn't a juggernaut, but they've had some nice games, including a 545 yard effort at UAB. 2 years ago, in a very similar situation, Tulane beat Army at West Point outright(17-16) as a 6 point dog. I can see a very similar result here.

4. @Syracuse -1 1/2 v Rutgers: I am going to continue to fade this Rutgers team. Other than their game with North Carolina-Central early this year, they have been severely outgained in their last 11 games in a row. Syracuse is capable on both sides of the ball, and all they have to do here is win, much like they had to do last week. Both teams have an edge with their defenses over the opponent's offense with the exception of Syracuse's passing offense having the clear advantage over Rutgers' porous pass defense. Ohio threw for 339 yards and 9.4 per attempt against them last week and North Carolina went for 10.5 per attempt a couple weeks prior to that. I think Syracuse will be able to throw on them all day. Again, without turnovers, I don't think Rutgers can hang in this one.

5. SMU +13 @TCU: So far this year, TCU has been a shell of it's former self. They have passed the ball pretty well, but their calling card of the past several years has been their suffocating defense, and this edition of the Horned Frogs has been anything but suffocating. They are currently ranked 91st in yards per play on defense, and 109th against the pass. Last year, they allowed 48% completions, this year they are allowing 65%. Conversely, SMU is ranked 10th in total defense, and they have played the likes of Texas A&M, so the numbers are not all that fluky. SMU will be on the road here, but it's only a 20 minute drive back over to Dallas for them, and I think they will have the better of the scrimmaging. Last year, when they played what was probably the most successful TCU squad of all time, they outgained the Horned Frogs and I think they can do it again. One of my favorite running backs in the country is SMU's Zach Line. Last year in this game, he ran for 139 yards on 17 carries..this on a TCU defense that was light years ahead of this year's version. I think they'll be able to run on TCU, I think they'll be able to throw on the 109th best pass defense, and I think they'll stop the run. It looks to me that SMU has the edge in that they'll be able to run and throw on TCU, while I think TCU will only have marginal success throwing the ball. Statistically, SMU has simply been the better team so far this year, and they hung extremely tough with a vastly superior TCU team last year. They've got a great shot at the outright upset.

6. @Virginia Tech -7 v Clemson: Clemson is coming off 2 great wins for them, a victory over defending National Champ Auburn, followed up by a nice win over Florida State last week. Laughably, I've actually heard some pundits breach the subject of the Tigers running the table. When I say "pundits", I mean the dumb ones, like Eddie George, and Skeeter from Columbus GA on the Paul Finebaum radio show. So Clemson comes off those two huge wins, and now has to travel to Blacksburg to face the real threat to go unbeaten in the ACC, the Hokies. Although Clemson has been impressive offensively, this will be Tahj Boyd's first road start, and it comes against the #3 defense in the country, weak competition or not. This is a major coaching edge for the Hokies, and don't look now, but with all the swooning over the Clemson offense, everyone forgot that this is the #107 ranked defense in yards per play. FSU had their backup QB in there, several receivers hurt and a terrible offensive line, and they put up 30 points and 336 yards passing on them. I think they are walking into an almost impossible situation here. If Dabo squeezes competitiveness out of them, we'll all have to tip our caps and wait for hell to freeze over. Also, 62% of the public likes Clemson, a huge number for a dog.

7. @Louisiana Tech -4 1/2 v Hawaii: Hawaii is 2-2, and has been as inconsistent as you can get. They've beaten Colorado soundly at home, were somewhat competitive with Washington on the road and administered the obligatory gory blowout to the unlucky FCS opponent who has to venture to the island every year. But they also took an prison raping on the road against UNLV, considered one of the most sorry squads in he country. Now they make the toughest conference road trip that exists in college football today, the 6,000+ mile trip with 3 plane changes and a bus ride to Ruston, LA. The last 3 trips they've made to Ruston have not gone well for them, especially in relation to the spread. In each of those games, La Tech has covered by more than 20 points ( won 27-6 as a 6 point favorite in '09, lost 45-44 as a 28 point dog in '07 and won 46-14 as a 3 point favorite in '05). I think the trip has as much to do with these results as the talent, but this year, La Tech despite a 1-3 record, has been impressive. They outgained Mississippi St and had them beaten last week in Starkville, only to give up a late TD and eventually lose in overtime. They lost by a point at home to Houston and by 2 on a last second field goal at Southern Miss. So they are no joke, and historically have been a very tough out in Ruston. If Hawaii turns in a less than inspired performance, I don't think this one will be close. Any team that can be held to 290 total yards and 6 yards rushing against UNLV is a suspicious candidate to cover a small spread in this game.

8. Washington +10 @Utah: There's this suggestion that Utah is going to just walk into the Pac 10 and it will be business as usual, just as it was when they were in the Mountain West. Total dick Kyle Winningham and his wild Samoan Mormons will soon find out that there anren't many New Mexicos or UNLVs or Wyomings on their schedule anymore. This line is greatly inflated by the 54-10 shellacking that Utah put on BYU 2 weeks ago, but that game was an orgy of crazy turnovers and wild bounces so it shouldn't be taken all that seriously. I also think that Utah has been given some credit for hanging with USC, but that game was on the verge of being a blowout until USC let them stay in the game. Washington QB Keith Price has actually greatly improved on Jake Locker's numbers...he's currently completing 67% of his passes with a 14/3 ratio, and that's against teams like Cal and Nebraska, so he's legit. Utah continues to be pedestrian on offense, especially in the passing game. Defensively they're good, but I don't think they have the offense to run away from a talented Washington team.

9. Texas -9 1/2 @Iowa St: I think Texas has turned the corner now that they have made the necessary changes at QB, going from the often confused Garrett Gilbert to young Case McCoy. I'm also a big believer in OC Bryan Harsin, who used to be at Boise. Defensively, they are almost as good as they've always been, so no problems there. In most seasons, Texas would be at least a 17-20 point favorite in this situation, but since Iowa State is 4-0 and looked good in their upset of Iowa, the spread is manageable. Also remember that Iowa State went into Austin and won for the first time in forever last year. That's part of the reason why I like Texas here, as the Horns certainly remember that game. Iowa State is 4-0 but statistically, they are still pretty woeful on offense, ranked in the mid 90's in yards per play. Defensively, they've been good, but they've played the likes of UCONN and a couple FCS schools, so this will be a huge step up for them. I like Texas to make a statement here, and remind the Cyclones what their lot in life is.

10. @Purdue +12 v Notre Dame: Notre Dame has obviously played a tougher schedule than Purdue, but the Boilers match up very well statistically with the Irish. They are ranked 19th in total defense, 18th against the run, and have moved the ball pretty much at will admittedly against weak competition. ND has shown a huge penchant for turning the ball over, and I thought Tommy Rees looked terrible last week at Pittsburgh. Purdue always gets up to play Notre Dame, and has played them tough in West Lafayette in recent years with worse teams than this. 2 years ago, ND had to eek out a last second win, and that was a solid Jimmy Claussen/Kyle Rudolph/Golden Tate team facing Danny Hope's first team, who ended up going 5-7. I'd rather see Purdue starting Robert marve than Caleb TerBush, but both will probably get snaps. I think the Boilers will show up, and ND has not proven that they can take care of business on the road.

11. Alabama -4 @Florida: When I first started looking at this game, I was searching high and low to find a reason to back the Gators here, but I just can't justify it. Obviously, Florida does not often find itself in the position of being a dog in The Swamp. It's only happened once in the past 10 years, and I can't find a time when they were more than a FG dog at home. There's good reason why they're dogged here, and it's the Alabama defense and Bama's penchant for scoring in ways other than using AJ McCarron's arm. If Florida can find a way to force McCarron to beat them with his arm, they are going to be in good shape, but I don't see it happening. Alabama's only possible weakness is a vertical passing game, and Florida simply does not have the horses to run that kind of game. John Brantley has proven time and again that he can't make those throws, and believe it or not, Florida does not have a single downfield receiving threat. Their offensive game is entirely dependent on runs after the catch by Chris Rainey and Jeffrey Demps, but Alabama's strength is it's ability to completely contain the short stuff, and they tackle remarkably well. I think Florida will struggle mightily to score. Bama will be challenged also, because Florida's defense is only a step behind Bama's, but Bama's offensive line is a monster to deal with and I think they'llbe able to run it on Florida. Once the emotion of kickoff dials down and Alabama gets themselves settled in, I think they'll take over the game. If Florida gets some bad breaks(which Charlie Weis is quite used to) and the fans start feeling sorry for themselves, it could get out of control, and that happens A LOT to Bama's opponents. See last weeks game with Arkansas for examples. Potentially a coaching mismatch here also with Saban vs Muschamp is Muschamp's 5th ever game as a HC.

12. @Wisconsin -10 v Nebraska: I can't believe that I'm taking this side, but the more I look at this game, the more I think the Badgers roll to a big victory. This is the toughest ticket in Badger history according to AD Barry Alvarez, the greatest AD in College Football history. This is off the subject, but for a moment, consider what that guy has accomplished since he came to Madison in 1990. Think about what Wisconsin football and basketball was before he got there, and contemplate what they are now. Wisconsin!!. It's really amazing. Anyway, it will be a raucous atmosphere up there, with all the marijuana smoke hanging over the stadium and with Game Day there to get everyone whipped into a frenzy all day. Nebraska actually has not been very good this year, especially on defense. Hell, even Wyoming ran it for 4 yards a carry on them, and Fresno St, otherwise the 80th ranked rush offense in the country had their running back pound them for 170 yards. Washington ran it on them for 5 yards a pop in Lincoln. You get the point. Wisconsin has been simply going through the motions so far this year, completely unchallenged and doing whatever they want on offense. Sometimes my guy Russell Wilson throws a TD pass, sometimes he runs it in himself, sometimes he hands it off to one of his buddies to score the TD, it's just whatever he feels like at that moment. Defensively, the game that impressed me the most was their game in Soldier Field against NIU. NIU has a damn good offense, and they have a poor man's Taylor martinez in Chandler Harnish, but they were completely shut down by the Badgers. 237 total yards, only 11 first downs. I would be willing to wager that NIU won't be held under 400 yards the rest of the season. That was an eye opener for me. The combination of that offense against a Nebraska team that hasn't figured things out yet along with the atmosphere and what looks to me to be a very solid defense, I can see this one being 17-0 at the drop of a hat.

13. Oregon St +18 1/2 @Arizona State: Statistically, Oregon State has been absolutely woeful, especially on defense, but this is actually nothing all that new for the beavs under Mike Riley. They always play tough teams away from home out of conference(Boise and Penn State in recent years, Wisconsin this year) only to get their bearings once October rolls around. It didn't happen last year, but Mike Riley is 31-14 ATS from October on, adn they have just gotten their best receiver and starting TE back. They have settled on a Qn now, Sean Mannion, who has looked pretty good the past couple of games. They are in the mid 40s in yards per play on offense, so I think they'll be able to move the ball on ASU. ASU finds itself in a terrible spot here, coming off a huge win last week at home against USC. There's no way they will be able to match that intensity again, and this is a huge spread to have to cover against a non-patsy. Even if this is a blowout and ASU is up 35-10 late, we'll still have a shot at a backdoor. I can see this one being a lot closer than that.


Others: Air Force(+3.5) was actually at +4 for a few minutes yesterday at Navy. If either of these teams is getting more than a FG, there's value. Air Force completely shut Navy down last year when the Middies had Ricky Dobbs. Kriss Proctor is the QB now..I'm not yet sold on him, so I actually think their offense might be down a notch despite the nice performance they had at South Carolina All the usual suspects return for AF, so I think the potential is there for a repeat of last year, and I'll definitely take the FG.....I almost never do this, but I highly recommend the OVER on the Texas Tech/Kansas game. Kansas's defense looks like a learining disabled group that might put up almost mythically bad numbers this year, if the first few games are any indicator. At the same time, their offense looks pretty good and Texas Tech can't stop a soul either. I think it's at 67 or something. I was going to take Tech -6 1/2, but I'm afraid they'll give up 40+ themselves.....I like Arkansas (+2 1/2) to handle A&M in Dallas. Although both teams lost, I think much more wind was taken out of the sails of A&M, since they collapsed at home, while nobody expected much out of Arkansas in Tuscaloosa. The Hogs have statistically dominated this series since they started it back up again, and I think there's a disctinct coaching advantage for Arkansas.....12:30 game in Baton Rouge this week, so a major letdown is probably in store for LSU, even though they are playing a terrible kentucky team. 31 points is a ton here though. If Kentucky can't cover that in this spot, they should be kicked out of the SEC.....I think this is the week that South Carolina (-10) figures things out offensively. Auburn is that terrible on defense. Even if Garcia still has his head up his ass, they'll just hand it to Lattimore 40 times and let Melvin Ingram score a couple more times on defense. Big public dog too, is Auburn. Everybody is united in their hatred for Stephen Garcia's passing acumen....I like MSU getting 3.5 at Ohio State, but I refuse to make it a musing because Matt Millen is doing that game, and every time he and Sean McDonough open their mouths, bad things happen tome. (See A&M/Okie St last week). I am 100% dead serious when I say that I would love to see Matt Millen drop dead....After watching the laughable display that NC State's defense but on last Thursday night in Cincinnati, I shudder to think what ga tech will do to them this week, laying only 9.5. They were constantly blowing contain, out of position and randomly sprinting away from the ball carrier. They will probably be able to move it on Tech, but Mike Glennon will probably nerd it up in some inopportune times. I can't see them keeping up, but at almost double digits, it's a bit too much to be a musing....To me, Washington State(+3) looks like the better team in their tilt at Colorado. Buffs might also be likely to take them lightly, and the Cougs have been lighting up the scoreboard while competing defensively.....Fresno State (-4.5) always gets up for BCS opponents, and if they want to have some fun at home, Ole Miss appears to be the perfect foil. I can't see Ole Miss going all the way out there and competing with that sickly offense, but the fact that Fresno is favored gives me a bit of pause.....That's it for this week...I hope everyone has a great week.