Week 4 Musings

Last week was a behemoth card, as I had 16 total, going 8-8 after Arizona shit the bed against Stanford in the second half. Not great, but I had several games that featured some rock-headed capping, and found myself on the same side of some extremely public underdogs which is never a good idea. A couple of the losses I thought had some pretty sound reasoning that just didn't work out, but I also had some fortuitous wins(Iowa for one.). So I'll grudgingly take the .500 week and live to play another day. Not even any value for the faders this week. Sorry 'bout that.

Holy Jumpin'Christmas am I glad a stayed away from NC State last night. The general rule is to go with the dog when NC State is on the road, but I just didn't like the matchup for the Wolfpack. I watched parts of the first half and early in the second, and I have to say that NC State's effort was offensive to me. So offensive, in fact, that I doubt that I will be risking my money on that outfit unless they are getting 30+. Hell, they lost 44-14 last night, so 30 wouldn't even had been enough. Ultimate nerd Mike Glennon threw for 300+, mostly in garbage time, but one look at him and his bucked teeth and goblin ears could tell you that he's not winning anything. Apparently Tom O'brien forgot how to coach football too, because that team was lost. Missing contain, dropping interceptions, roughing the passer on thrird and long..just complete incompetence.

One other thing I've been wondering, amid all the conjecture and hand wringing about conference realignment is this: Why does everyone assume that it is a foregone conclusion that we will end up having 4 16 team superconferences?? A couple points here....First, why does the Big Ten need to expand to 16?? Why does the SEC? Because someone said you have to have 16?? It's a nice round number? The idea with expansion, at least with the conferences that share revenue like the Big Ten does, is to increase revenues per school. If you are going to expand, the team that's coming in has to represent revenue growth that exceeds their piece of the equally shared pie. Also, the Big Ten won't expand unless the school is worthy academically, and Nebraska, it appears, barely made the cut in that respect. So Kansas and Kansas St, without a good football program, aren't coming in. Unless they can get Notre Dame, there's no reason for the Big Ten to expand, since that would even further water down conference scheduling. These 16 team conferencs are really going to end up being 8 team mini-conferences anyway. Is that what people want? So I guess my point is, I don't buy into the 16 team inevitability. It looks like the PAC 12 figured as much, so maybe things will stabilize..who knows.

On to this week. The frst thing that I'll say is that I was very close to grabbing the points with UCF in their game tonight at BYU, but the spread ran down to 2. Based on what these two teams have done this year, I think UCF is the better team, actually by quite a bit, but I need more cushion than 2 points in a venue like Provo. I'll be surprised if BYU can move the ball effectively on UCF. Standings after 3 weeks: 21-20-1.


1. @Syracuse -2.5 v Toledo: Surprisingly, the public likes Toldeo in this contest. I understand Toldeo is no joke, having played Ohio State tough in Columbus a couple weeks ago, but we're seeing, especially after that putrid offensive performance at Miami last week, that OSU is not the juggernaut of years past(predicted in the preseason musings, as you might remember). Syracuse, at least lately, has been a good whipping boy, having fielded some of the worst BCS level teams in recent memory. However, under Marrone, they have been better, and actually possess a pretty good passing game now with QB Ryan Nassib. Some class relief here for Syracuse, as they are coming off a loss at USC. In that game, QB Nassib actually threw the ball pretty well, and their starting RB Bailey ran it for better than 4 yards a pop. Syracuse isn't great, but they aren't bad either. All they really have to do in this game is win at home, and I don't think that's asking much of them. Toledo is pretty good, but they don't have a strong enough defense to slow down Syracuse on the road. They should be getting at touchdown here, at least.

2. North Carolina +7 @Georgia Tech: I can understand this line, given the results of the Jackets offense so far this year. Consider: They just put up 768 yards on kansas last week, including 600+(!!!!!!!!!!!!!) on the ground. Also, a quick gamder at the passer rating stats will tell you that they are lapping the field in that category(322.22!), and you should probably also know that they are averaging 22.5 yards per ATTEMPT!. That, my friends is getting it done. However, I cannot stress to you how bad Kansas is on defense. They never stopped NIU the week before on their home field, and they certainly had no chance to figure out Ga tech's attack under Home Run Hire Turner Gill. UNC did not look great last week at home vs Virginia, but they got the job done after dominating Rutgers the week before. Georgia Tech, I'm sure, will put some yardage up on them, but this line has gone crazy based on Tech's performance against completely overmatched opponents. many times, GT has struggled against more athletic defenses, and UNC fits the bill. Also, GT has always struggled on defense under Johnson, especially against effective passing attacks. UNC is averaging 10 yards per attempt themselves, so their offesne fits the bill as a bad matchup for GT. 3 weeks ago, this line would be at least 10 points the other way, so I see a lot of value in this line. Obviously, it's scary to go against Tech given their performance so far this year, and I love being on Johnson's side, but I think things change for them now that they are facing an upgrade in competition.

3. @Maryland -8.5 v Temple: Another dog that the public likes. Temple played Penn State last week and made some waves because they were in it until the end, but I think people are putting too much into that one. First, Penn State is no juggernaut offensively, and they blew 3 or 4 possessions on turovers deep in Temple territory and missed FGs. On the other hand, Maryland is coming off a tough loss to West Virginia, and will get some class relief after starting the season with the 'Eers and Miami. Offensively, they have been explosive, and should have beaten WV last week if QB Danny O'Brien hadn't tossed a couple to the other team. In their two games this year, Maryland has put up 477 and 500 yards, and temple, in their first exposure to a real defense, couldn't crack 200. Their wins have come against Akron, who might be #120 out of 120, and a Villanova team that has subsequently lost to Towson 31-10 and Monmouth College 20-9. I think Temple will have a hard time keeping up in this one.

4. @Miami(OH) -3 v Bowling Green: This line keeps dropping. I'll be buying the 1/2 point if necessary to get to 3. Miami is 0-2 on the year, having lost road games at Missouri and Minnesota. This had some tough breaks in both, and actually could have walked away with W's in both cases with some good fortune. They outgained the Gophers last week but had a blocked punt for a TD against them and 2 missed XPs that ended up hurting them. Now they return home and get some class relief with BG. BG's defense has been terrible over the past several years, and although they have been better statistically this year, they gave up big yards to Wyoming last week, and figure to again this week on the road in Oxford. Zac Dysert and WR Nick Harwell carved up BG last year, and they've been doing it to people this year, so I see more of the same. BG is also going to see a much better defense than they have previously. I like Miami's new coach Don Treadwell, and I think they get their season going this week with a nice home win.

5. @Ball State +4 v Army: Over the past 10 years, Army has been favored on the road 4 times. They are 0-4 ATS spread in those games. They are favored here because they played a great game agaisnt Northwestern, running the ball 75 times and grinding out a 7 point win. Remember, that NW was a favorite in that one, a role they cannot handle. I think the same might be true for Army here. The expectation would be that Army will run it down Ball State's throats, and play good enough defense to win going away. However, these two teams played each other at Army two years ago, when Ball State was terrible and coached by a dolt, and they held a Steelman led Army attack to only 265 yards. Now they move the game to Muncie, Ball State is much more competent on both sides of the ball, and they have a coach that knows what he's doing. Also remember that Ball State physically dominated Indiana in week one, and it gives you more indication that they won't be a pushover. Army has never been strong defensively, and in their lone road game this year, they were down 49-6
after 3 quarters. There's not enough evidence for me to make them a favorite in this game.

6. Ohio +4 @Rutgers: Ohio coach Frank Solich is calling this his best team at Ohio, and that's with good reason. They haven't played stiff competition yet, but they've blown out everyone they've played, including what was previously thought to be a decent Marshall team last week 44-7, racking up 558 yards in the process. Defensively they have been solid as well, which doesn't bode well for Rutgers. I am just not a believer in the Scarlett Knights, as they can't run the ball to save their lives. If Ohio is looking for an opportunity to open some eyes against a BCS team, which I'm sure they are, this is the prefect opponent. I think the Bobcats are the better team here. It wouldn't surprise me if they win this one going away.

7. @Texas A&M -4 v Oklahoma St: This line keeps moving, but I think the Aggies are going to make a statement here. This team keeps building confidence, has circled this game, and believes that it can win the Big 12. That wasn't the case last year on the Thursday night when they lost by 3 to the Cowboys in Stillwater. In that game, Jerrod Johnson was still screwing around at QB for the Aggies, but they still outgained OSU 535-353. I am a big believer in A&M DC Tim DeKuyper(former Air Force DC) and I think these two defenses are not comparable. Although they won in a blowout because Tulsa can't stop a medium sized horsefly from running them over on defense, OSU still gave up 365 yards rushing at 6.5 yards a pop to the Golden Hurricane. If they don't improve immensely on that A&M is going to run them out of the stadium. The Aggies are extremely balanced, so OSU better bring their lunch buckets. Offensively, it's obvious that OSU is explosive, but A&M had them figured out last year, and they'll have a raucous crowd in their corner this year. OSU has been a hell of a story in recent years, but I think they are going to take this one on the chin.

8. Western Michigan +14 @Illinois: They say that the best indicator of future results is past experience. In situations like this, a trap game after a big win, Illinois has been terrible under Zook. First of all. even considering a good performance by Illinois, WMU is no joke. They can move the ball through the air, and they have a very competent coach in Bill Cubit. Also remember that they beat a pretty talented Illinois team back in '08 which ended up costing the Illini a bowl berth that year. The Illini are coming off a nice victory over Arizona St last week, but a closer look at that game shows that they were lucky to win. Offensively, they didn't crack 300 yards and gave up a lot of big plays in the passing game. They were able to get some opportunistic turnovers which helped them stay in the game while they went most of the second half without recording a first down and had to almost abandon the run. I think the chances of WMU getting Illinois's best shot is almost zero, as this program is extremely prone to let downs. Combine that with the fact that WMU is pretty good, and you've got a chance for an outright WMU win. As an Illinois fan, I'll be thrilled with any kind of win, let alone a 14+ point laugher.

9. @Washington -1 v Cal: There is some conern here with Washington because their defense has been among the worst in the country. last week at Nebraska, they gave up 51 points and almost 500 yards, and they were very lucky to win their opener against Eastern Washington. Offensively, they've been good though, and I was impressed with their ability to rack up some points and yards on Nebraska in Lincoln. Their QB Keith Price looks to have settled into Sarkisian's offense, and they've good good balance with Chris Polk running the ball and Jermaine Kearse catching it. Enter Road Cal. At home, they did what they do, bludgeoning Presbyterian(??) last week, but in their previous road game, they were gashed for almost 600 yards by Colorado, and almsot 500 through the air. I would peg Washington as a bit stronger offensively than Colorado, so I think we might see some offensive foreworks here. All we need is for Washington to suck it up and beat Cal at home, which they've done the last couple times by double digits as 7 point dogs. They also won last year in Berkeley as a 7.5 dog. Cal is also 0-7 in it's last 7 trips to the non Wazzou northwest, including some hellacious blowouts.

10. Colorado +17(buy it from 16.5) @Ohio St: I can't figure this one out. Ohio State has proven that they are going to have major problems offensively this year, and on top of that, they got gashed on the ground by Miami last week. Joe Bauserman proved that he cannot lead an offense in any kind of an uncomfortable environment, and we all knew that to be the case before it happened, so no big surprise there. Many people were expecting hotshot true freshman Braxton Miller to step in early, and he probably would have from day 1 if he showed any promise at practice. Unfortunately, he was a prima donna, didn't work hard enough and bumbled his way through the preseason workouts, leaving the coaching staff no choice but to teach him a lesson and go with Bauserman. Now they have no choice. Miller will be starting, but in my opinion, it's less about who gives them the best chance to win and more about getting Miller in there to take his lumps now. Even when Ohio State was good, I don't know that I would make them this much of a favorite against a decent Pac 12 team, which is what Colorado is. The Buffs had no trouble with a decent Colorado St team on a neutral site last week, should have beaten Cal in week 2, and have proven to be more than capable on offense. I think, given the state of Ohio State right now, that the Buffs have a shot at he outright win. You might assume that Ohio State will be pissed off and just take care of business, but let me be clear...THEY DONT HAVE ANY DIFFERENCE MAKING PLAYERS. They aren't good enough to make a difference just by getting mad. They will be under a lot of pressure before the home crowd, too, as you can be sure the boo birds will be out loud and clear the first time the punter prances out there.

11. @Clemson -2.5 v Florida State: Everyone was impressed with FSUs defensive effort last week in front of the raucous Doak Campbell crowd, there's no doubt about that. Holding that offense to barely over 300 yards is a solid job. But their offense looked weak, and their offensive line can't bust a grape. I am not a fan of Clemson historically, but they held a very tricky Auburn offense to 3 points over the last 2+ quarters last week, and especially if EJ Manuel can't go(which appears likely) I'm not sure how FSU is going to get anything going on the road in a backup's first start with a terrible offensive line. Even if Manuel plays, it's not like he's Daryle Lamonica back there. Clemson will probably have some issues offensively as well, but their offense is also a tricky one, and they've got some playmakers in Andre Ellington and Sammy Watkins. No chance for a letdown here as Clemson always gets up to play the Noles. On the other hand, after that OU game, I'm afraid FSU might lay an egg. If FSU wins this one on the road..they deserve a ton of credit.

12. @Buffalo +9 v UCONN: Not sure how UCONN gets to be a favorite here. They have no offense. Period. Vandy held them to under 200 total yards to weeks ago. OK..maybe Vandy is pretty good on defense, they were on the road, etc. If there's any game that a team should be able to move the ball, it's at home against Iowa State on a short week when Iowa State is walking into the mother of all letdown situations. They managed 4.4 yards per play, which would generally land you about 110th in total offense in the country. Now they go back on the road to face Buffalo, who has looked pretty good so far this year with some BCS talent and a nice scheme. At this point, UCONN hasn't shown that they have the ability offensively to cover a spread like this.

13. Vandy +15.5 @South Carolina. Vandy is generally a thorn in the Cocks' side, having played them tough in Columbia inthe past. They also have looked very strong this year defensively, ranking 18th in the country against the run despite playing a couple teams(UCONN and Ole Miss) that people thought would have stout running games this year. Lots of buzz around SEC country that James Franklin(new coach) has them believing. Basically, Stephen Garcia has crawled back into his hole, having lost all effectiveness throwing the ball, so they've had to go almost exclusively with Marcus Lattimore, so although he's a load, they'll be playing right into Vandy's defensive strength. Both teams figure to run the ball a lot, so the clock will be ticking, making it hard to cover a big spread like this, unless they can figure out a way to keep Vandy under 10. Looks like a pretty similar game to last week's game with Navy last week.

14. @Boise St -28 v Tulsa: Unfortunately for Tulsa, their timing is not very good. They come into Boise likely without their starting QB GJ Kinne, who got hurt in the Oklahoma St game. His backup, kalen Anderson, went 6/20 with 3 INTs against a much weaker defensive team than he'll face this week. Tulsa was able to run it last week at 3 in the morning against a disinterested Okie St defense, but that won't be likely against Boise on the blue turf. Throw in the fact that Tulsa's defense is generally among the worst in FBS and that Boise needs massive ass kickings every week to win style points, and you've got yourself a recipe for disaster for the Golden Hurricane. That spread might be covered by the end of the 1st quarter.

15. @Oklahoma -19.5 v Missouri: Last year Oklahoma went into Columbia and lost, and it was a painful one for the Sooners, as they were undefeated and ranked #3. I am sure that OU is ready for payback. Consider the last time that OU faced Missouri somewhere other than Columbia. That was in 2008 in Arrowhead stadium, the Big 12 title game. Final Score, 66-21, and that Missouri team had the likes of Chase Daniel, Derrick Washington, Jeremy Maclin, etc. Now they come to Norman with James Franklin calling the shots and the Sooners looking for revenge. Defensively, Missouri was for the most part helpless against Arizona St in week 2, giving up a 25/33, 383, 4 TD 0 INT line to Brock Osweiller. You think Landry Jones and Ryan Broyles might have some success? Also, Ou's defense looked pretty darn good to me, so Franklin better bring his flak jacket. I think this one looks like a 55-17 blowout.

Others: I like Pitt (+7) to hang with Notre Dame at home. Let's see if the Irish can put togeher two good performances in a row. I know Pitt had their hearts broken last week, but I liked their ability to move the ball, and I'm still very skeptical about ND's pass defense....Not excited abut backing the Chips again, but I think Central Michigan(+22) is better than they showed last week and will give a much better performance against Michigan St this week. It'll be tough for the Spartans to have a vigorous effort after the collpase they had in South Bend last week....Another team that screwed me last week was UCLA, but I like their chances this week (+5) at Oregon St. The Beavs have shown absolutely no ability to execute on offense thus far, and appear porous on defense as well. I still think UCLA can move the ball based on what they did at Houston in week 1. the fact that Oregon St gets James Rodgers and their starting tight end this week keeps me from being overly excited about it..... Fresno is favored at Idaho(+3). Normally, this is spot where Fresno barely shows up. Also, these two teams have a common opponent, (North Dakota). Idaho blew them out and outgained them by 250, Fresno was losing to them in the 4th quarter and got outgained. .....Kind of like Wyoming getting 21.5 at home against Nebraska. Not sure what the Huskers have done to deserve these accolades, as they got outgained by Fresno and struggled with Washington at home. Defensively they have not looked good, and theiur best defender Jared Crick is injured this week. Wyoming has looked ok on offense...might be interesting....I think it's asking a lot for LSU to go on the road yet again against a good opponent and completely shut them down. The environment will be borderline apoplectic in Morgantown this week...can they dominate again. They'll have to to cover 6...that's a lot to ask, even though WV can't run to save their lives....Lastly, I think Arizona St(-2.5) will make a nice bounceback against USC. I just don't think the Trojans are all that good, and I think ASU is for real on offense. They'll be ready to play. That's it for this week. Good luck.