Week 1 Musings

So here we go again. A pretty solid record in the early years of the musings have given way to back to back years of sub .500 regular season records. Last year we ended up at 78-88. That's about a worst case scenario because even if you were understandably fading the plays, they didn't even fail good enough to make you any money. Completely good for nothing was this collection last season. So we trudge on this year..do what you will with them.

I should probably take this time to say 'Happy Trails" to former Cubs GM Jim Hendry who was fired a couple weeks ago. His being in the team's rearview window allows Cubs fans to dream about a sustained period of relevance, one that was not previously possible due to Hendry's Neanderthal views about what wins in baseball. The Cubs remain one of the few organizations in baseball who still value things such as athleticism, plate coverage, batting average, pitcher wins and saves more than they value OBP, slugging %, WHIP and other things that actually help you win when you concentrate on them. I could literally fill up about 5,000 words going over all the disatrous moves that he made. Having said that, Hendry had his positives. He was an absolute prince of a guy, one that everyone in baseball liked and respected. He could trade with any GM, he could work with any agent and his general demeanor was the biggest reason that the Cubs were a major player with any free agent that they cared to be a player for. He also had a hand in 3 division titles. At the end of the day, however, the fact that there no longer existed an open checkbook to cover his mistakes ultimately meant the end of the line. Although I'm glad it happened, I can still say, "Thanks Jim, for being a stand up guy."

I must say that after a couple years of some pretty good Thursday nighters on openeing weekend, this year's Thursday slate is total garbage. The best game is between two probable cellar dwellers in their conferences, Wake and Syracuse. For that reason, I am laying off any musings from Thursday. The two I considered were Wake +7 @Syracuse, mostly as a fade of the Orange who lost each game last year outright that they were favored in at home against a BCS opponent. However, the line dropped under a TD, and Wake looks to be in such disarray on both sides of the ball right now that I can't make a committment to them. And apparently they're soft too. Consider this quote by Jim Grobe about one of his WRs (Chris Givens) during fall practice this year. "Getting Mike Campanaro back is really, really big because we're having so many problems with Chris Givens,'' Grobe said. "Chris has just been really soft. He's not a very dependable guy for us right now.
"Chris's problem is he's not a natural catching the football. It's not a given, no pun intended, that he's going to go catch the football. He's got to work on that, and the only way you get good at that is get a lot of reps.
"Standing around in the shade and going back to the spa doesn't get you ready at this level.''

Wow. So I held off on Wake. I also thought hard about Wisconsin because UNLV has a 6-24 record ATS in their last few years as a road dog. 36 is a load of points though, and though they added my guy Russell Wilson to the mix, there's no margin for error when the spread gets as high as this.

Oh I almost forgot. ESPN aired one of their "season preview shows wher they invite a bunch of "experts" to reak down the comings and goings of the upcoming season. Naturally, since he is the irresistible force, Matt Millen was asked to provide his usual brand of expertise. Ask and you shall receive, regarding the Miami Hurricanes, who he will be covering on Labor Day night. Before you watch this, I just want to mention that Jarrett Lee plays for LSU.

http://awfulannouncing.com/2011-articles/august/matt-millen-jarrett-lee-miami-qb-lsu-espn-sportscenter.html

Unbelieveable. This thing aired Tuesday. The game is in 6 days. He's covering it, and it just now appears to be occuring to him that he might want to take in a practice. Apparently he's been showing the proper respect to his craft and has been studying furiously. Someone shoot this moron immediately. I am not kidding about that. If he died tomorrow, I think I'd throw out my shoulder from the enthusiastic fist pump upon hearing the news.

On to the carnage.

1. TCU -4 1/2 @ Baylor(Friday night): I believe that this line started at -10 and has moved all the way down to 4 1/2. The movement is probably due to the appearance that TCU is in rebuild mode and that Baylor has most of it's skill people back, most notably QB Robert Griffin, from an offense that averaged 475 yards per game last year. Unfortunately for them, one team that they did NOT have success agaisnt last year was TCU, who held them to 263 yards. TCU also torched them for 558. Did I mention that Baylor's defense was a laughingstock last year? Well, if you give up 635 yards of offense in a game(as they did to Texas Tech) and that's not even close to bad as you did in another game(735 to Okie St), that qualifies you as a laughingstock. 6 of their 7 top tacklers are gone from that defense, which might end up being a good thing. The bottom line is that Baylor simply does not beat good teams. In their record breaking bowl season last year, they beat zero teams with a winning record and got destroyed by a 6-6 Illinois team in the bowl. TCU might be rebuilding (new QB, only 8 starters eturning), but they are a stud program now and Gary Patterson certainly knows what he's doing. They appeared to be in rebuild mode two years ago as well, and they ran the table in the regular season with a bunch of guys nobody had previously heard of. If Baylor comes out and trades blows with TCU here, I'll take my medicine, but given the recent history of these two programs, I like my chances with TCU winning this one comfortably.

2. Middle Tennessee St +18 @Purdue: This game has become a play due to the fact that some schlep from Metamora, IL named Caleb TerBush(???) is starting for Purdue at QB in this one. Who is he? Well, he'll be the 6th loser to be tried at QB since Danny Hope has arrived on the scene. Not that it's Hope's fault...these guys are about as durable as Rosie O'Donnel's toothpick chair. The funny thing is that although TerBush has been in the program for 3 years, this is his first shot at starting. They've done all they could to avoid using him, but if he's the last man standing, after Rob Henry tore his ACL and Robert Marve's most recent ouchie hasn't healed, he's their only choice. He doesn't have much talent, as his career line of 4-11 for 20 yards, 0 TD's and 2 INTs would suggest. He's also not the sharpest tool in the shed, as he was ineligible last year. Last year, when they had their number 1 (Marve) starting, they only beat Western Illinois by 10, a putrid Ball State team by 11 and lost ourtright to Toledo(soundly). So now, with this oaf in there, their supposed to cover 18? Certainly, MTSU is no Bama, or even Toledo for that matter, but all we need them to be is WIU. They have a solid coach and some decent talent returning. Once again, if TerBush leads them to something they haven't seen in Hope's tenure, so be it, but unless they get a slew of defense/ST scores, I think they'll be hard pressed to blow anyone out.

3. @Boston College -3 v Northwestern: The world loves Northwestern this year, as everybody and their brother is calling them a darkhorse in the B10. This line is going all over the place, but I suspect it will end up here when all is said and done. It was sitting at around 2 for most of the week, then shot up to -4 1/2 when rumors that Persa won't be ready circulated. I actually kind of liked BC with or without Persa, so I'm ready to roll the dice on the Eagles regardless. We're talking about a BC defense that was tops in the country against the run and in the top 5 nationally last year. This year, they return just about everyone except cancer survivor Mark Herzlich on defense. We're also talking about a Northwestern defense that was completely helpless towards the end of the season last year, utterly unable to stop any semblance of a rushing attack, or any kind of attack for that matter. BC brings back their improving QB from last year and all his receivers. Although RB Montel Harris is banged up and won't play, I think that they'll be able to muster up a running attack at home, just like they always do. I'll be rooting for the Cats, but I think this is asking too much of them.


4. @USC -23 v Minnesota: New coach, new QB, long road trip against a tough opponent...it all spells disaster for the Gophers. Obviously, USC is not the USC we all have grown accustomed to over the past several years, but they're getting there. Without 4 year starter Adam Weber behind center, it appears that new QB MarQueis Gary is going to have a rough go against the Trojans. I just can't see any way they put up any meaningful points, and they look to be just as weak as they always are on the defensive side of the ball. That's not a good sign when Matt Barkley returns coming off a 26/12 ratio in a season in which most of his receivers were hurt.

5. @Houston -3 v UCLA: The Bruins have struggled mightily as a road dog, 4-12 ATS under Neuheisel. Last year, this was the famous game in which Houston lost All Star QB Case Keenum and his backup in their game in the Rose Bowl. UCLA rolled to victory on turnovers, but they were outgained in the game by a Houston team with it's 3rd string QB and a bad defense. Now the Cougs have Keenum back, he of the 15k+ career passing yards as well as most of their production in the skill areas. If UCLA is going to hang, they will have to come up with much more than the 368 yards they managed on Houston's pedestrian defense last year. I think Keenum makes mincemeat out of them. They are extremely young on defense this year.


6. @NIU -10 v Army: At first I looked at this one and thought I might enjoy the points, but I think Army is going to have a heck of a time stopping Northern in this one. NIU was among the best running teams in the country last year at 6.3 ypc. All 5 OL return as does shifty QB Chandler Harnish, who also managed a 21/5 ratio and 65% completions. Army is little on the D line...I think they are in for a very long day on that side of the ball. On the flip side, NIU loses some starters on defense, but a ton of lettermen return, and new coach Dave Doeren is a defensive guy who had a lot of success as DC at Wisconsin. Another factor to consider is that when Army lines up against superior competition, once they fall behind, they have a hard time coming back because of their utter lack of a passing game leads to lots of piling on due to turnovers/bad breaks. I don't think 10 is all that much to ask NIU to cover in this one.

7. Miami(OH) +21 @ Missouri: Miami has struggled in these trips to Columbia before, but I think they have a shot at staying close in this one this year. They are the returning MAC champs, coming off a 10-4 campaign after losing 10 games the previous year. Both of the QBs who effectively split time last year are back, 4 of their 5 OL are back and they return their top 8 tacklers. Among their returning guys on defense, they had an amazing 19 INTs and 31 sacks, so there is all kinds of playmaking ability on a defense that will be facing a first time QB(James Franklin) who admittedly had a very shaky fall camp. I also think that they got a coaching upgrade with the offseason merry go 'round. Their previous guy was Mike Heywood, the guy who Pitt hired and then fired when he ended up in jail for beating up his baby mama. Nice example for urban youth that you want to keep on the straight and narrow. They ended up with Don Treadwell, previous OC at Michigan State who is among the most respected assistants in the country and is a perfect fit for Miami. Also, Mizzou has all kinds of guys banged up on defense, and the latest report is that 4 starters are questionable due to various ailments. You might have to buy a 1/2 pt to get 21, but I think taking the 3 TDs here in this matchup is definitely the value side.

8. Fresno St +9 1/2(I'd buy to 10) @Cal: You might wonder why in the world I would ever bet against Home Cal, since unsuspecting non elite teams go in to Berkeley and end up with beat up anuses. I'll grant you that. But unfortunately for Cal, their stadium is undergoing renovation this year so all their home games are being played in Pac Bell park or whatever they call the Giants stadium these days. So this is pretty much a quasi neutral site game. Meathead Pat Hill should be glad about that, because it plays right into his tired motivational ploys that lead to Fresno being a good bet as a nonconference dog. Taking a look at Cal, there's nobody on the roster that appears to have any serious competence at QB. We know that it isn't Brock Mansion, the guy who took over when Kevin Riley got hurt last year. (48% compl, 2/5 ratio). It might be former Buffalo QB Zack Maynard, but he stunk at Buffalo. No more Shane Vereen, a mostly new OL, you get the picture. This situation is traditionally right in Fresno's wheelhouse, and as we've seen, Cal is a different squad, even kind of cowardly when they are away from that stadium in Berkeley. Also, David Carr's little brother is taking over the QB duties at Fresno, and reports are that he's every bit as good as his brother.(College version of course).

9. Oregon -1 v LSU: Actually, I have no idea what this spread is...I'm taking the consensus page at covers's number. Even if it goes to 4 or so, i would play the Ducks. It's unfortunate that Jordan Jefferson got suspended because in my opinion, his presence in the game means little to the ultimate outcome, but it will certainly effect how many points to have to lay when fading LSU. I think this game is going to come down to how well oregon stops LSU in the running game, because that is going to be LSU's MO here. The biggest personnel loss for LSU is Russell Shepard, who is easily their most explosive playmaker. Without him, they have Rueben Randle, and that's about it at this point. Oregon returns just about all of the pieces that made up that record setting offense last year, especially QB Thomas and RB James, both of whom are from Texas and will be fired up. There's some attention being paid to the fact that Oregon struggled against Auburn in the MNC game last year, and LSU is a stronger defensive outfit than Auburn, but Chip Kelly, although a questionable charachter, is no dummy. Now that he's seen SEC speed in the flesh, I expect he'll have some tricks up his sleeve for LSU. In order to beat Oregon, LSU needs to be at full strength and there's been too much going on in that program, what with the late changes to their coordinators and now with the bar fight. I like the Ducks in this one.

10 Boise St -3 1/2 v Georgia: Although this is a neutral site game, most observers agree that it'll be pretty much a home atmosphere for Georgia. Whatever...Boise has thrived on situations like this for a long time. Georgia has a very good young QB in Aaron Murray, but as far as returning playmakers, that's about it. They will be very reliant on a freshman RB, and their OL is already depleted. They've had to deal with suspensions and a couple injuries as well. Looking at their roster, there's ust not much there to get excited about. People are also saying that Georgia needs the game in Athens against South Carolina in week 2 a hell of a lot more than they need this one, so there's always the motivational issue to think about. That's obviously not the case with Boise. As usual, their season hinges on winning this game, and this year, since Georgia is no great shakes, they probably think they have to win soundly. I think they'll be motivated to do that, and they have the personnel with Kellen Moore, Doug Martin, 8 of their top 10 O lineman back and 6 of their front seven back to pull it off.

11. @Texas -24 (and climbing) v Rice: Not that it matters, I think Texas will win this one with great ease. Their utter collapse last year had this line down in the 22 range earlier this week, but bettors are starting to realize what a mistake that line is and pound the Longhorns. Although they went 5-7 last year and couldn't do a damn thing right, they still outgained opponants by 90+ yards per game. it was just one of those years. I don't think they'll be back to the level that they've regularly enjoyed over the past 7-8years this year, but they'll certainly be good enough to name the score against Rice, especially in Austin. Traditionally, Texas is a 35 point favorite in this game, and the talent differential is on par with previous years here in my opinion. Texas will have extra motivation is normally doesn't have in a gam like this, as they are out to prove something, and both new coordinators want to prove their worth. I think Texas lays some major wood to the Owls here.


Others: Auburn might have a tussle on their hands with Utah State. USU looks like they might have some explosiveness on offense and Auburn is prone to giving up big plays. They are also trying out new people, and will probably be sleepwalking through this one. 23 isn't enough for me though for this one to be a musing.....Arkansas St is catching a lot agaisnt the Illini, and they provide things that usually give the Illini problems, a good passing attack and a competent front seven. Finally, we get a bit of class relief in our opener, and the schedule sets up very well for the Zooker, but it would be just like the Zooker to drop a game like this...he has to cover 20 1/2..that's a lot......Although I like Western Michigan's team, I have a feeling that Michigan(-14) is going to come out like gangbusters in their first game under Hoke.....ND is laying 10 at home to Skip Holtz and USF. What has ND done to deserve this respect? I guess because they beat a disinterested Miami team and a Barkley-less, shell of itself USC team at the end of last year. I really don't like USF's offense, so it's keeping me away from this one, but if I played a side, it would definitely be USF. I like Todd Graham, but should Pitt be a 30+ favorite over anyone, even Buffalo? He brought his DC with him from Tulsa, so Pitt's tough D personna is out the window, That'll be interesting to watch.


That's it for now. Good luck in Week 1!!!!!