Week 3 Musings

Sorry for the lateness of the post.

Already week 3, or after this week, 20% of the season already gone. Maybe that's a good thing. When I was writing this crap last week, I really felt good about my sides. It was all coming easy. Well, nothing comes easy anymore. I ended up going 7-7-1(I'm taking a liberty on South Carolina because I got it at 2.5, and just about every shop had it at 2.5 starting around noon on Friday until game time.) I could bitch and moan about a couple of bad beats, most notably North Carolina (7.4 yards per play to Rutgers' 3.4) and CMU, (lead the entire game and outgained Kentucky but still found a way to not cover a DD spread), but I was fortunate in a couple too, as South Carolina was soundly outplayed and Stanford was lucky to cover. So we move on to week 3.

After 2 weeks in the season, while everybody likes to speculate on who the top teams are, it's fun when you can already determine who some of the worst teams in the country are after only 2 weeks. This year is one of those years. There are a lot of teams who have had some putrid performances. Take FAU for example. Last week at Michigan St, they managed a grand total of 48 yards. They converted one first down. One. Out of their 10 possessions, 8 of them were 3 and outs. The other two were a fumble and a 5 play drive in which they gained 2 yards. In two games, they've gotten a grand total of 185 yards. They've played MSU and Florida in those two games, so nobody expected them to thunder up and down the field, but come on.

FAU may be bad, but right now, to me, it seems as though two teams are poised to fight to the death to determine who is the worst team in FBS: UNLV and Memphis. Everyone saw how bad UNLV is during the first Thursday night of the season when they were completely helpless against my guy Russel Wilson and his new buddies at Wisconsin. That paled in comparison, though to what happened in week 2. They traveled to the Pallouse in Pullman and proceeded to get a mud hole stomped into them by previously inept Washington St. How does a 610-158 yardage discrepancy sound? Wow. The Rebs are now 6-26 in their last 32 games as a road dog. Potentially even worse was Memphis. Again, they too were prison raped in week 1 (Miss St 55-14) but even worse, they just got destroyed by Arky St, a Sun belt team. Final yardage: 611-169. This is Arkansas St we're talking about. They ought to fight to the death at some grammar school field in North Dakota to find out who sucks worse. Season totals: 13-12-1.

1. @Iowa -3 v Pitt: Iowa is of course coming off the very disappointing loss to Iowa St in 3 overtimes this past Saturday. They are well coached, and generally respond to adversity well as a result. Also, they are historically a great bet as a home favorite. Pitt is 2-0 but has been anything but impressive in the process. Though I generally like Todd Graham, the jury is still out if his whole scheme will be a fit in Pittsburgh. Their wins were over Buffalo and Maine, both of whom played them to a sandstill. I've never been an admirer of Tino Sunseri at QB, and he's back there again, at least for now. He does not appear to me to be the type of QB that would thrive in the Tulsa style offense. Indecision, slew footedness and wobbly wounded ducks normally don't work in that scheme. They will have to move the ball and show some intangibles they haven't previously had. I like Iowa to bounce back here and get a solid win.

2. Central Michigan +8 @Western Michigan: Here's a rivalry game where we have 2 teams that are in my opinion pretty interchangeable. WMU probably has a more potent offense, but Central's is no slouch as QB Ryan Radcliffe is capable of airing it out as well. Defensively, I think CMU is a bit stronger, as they were able to completely handle Kentucky save a couple big plays. CMU has owned WMU over the past few years, beating them outright as a home dog last year. To me, this spread looks bloated..I would expect to see it in the 3-4 range, definitely under a TD. Historically, the three directional Michigan schools generally have close games, regardless of what kind of year they're all having. It wouldn't surprise me at all if this one went OT, so I'll take the points that guarantee a cover in that case.

3. Duke +7 @ Boston College: Normally you'd be crazy to take Duke and only be getting a TD, but I think this looks like a pretty good spot for the Blue Devils. Their game with Stanford last week was closer than the game appeared. Duke under Renfree moved the ball pretty effectively in the air, and they look to be in a position to do so again this week. A 3rd starter from the BC secondary was lost for the year in their game last week. Duke under Cutcliffe can really throw it. Also during the week, BC lost OC Kevin Rogers for the year due to an illness. Their offense was not anything to write home about to begin with, and Montel Harris is still not back. Duke is in it's element here as a road dog as well.

4. @Colorado -7 v Colorado St: Coming into the season, Colorado State had among the fewest number of returnees who did anything significant on the field at all. No returning TDs, no playmakers on defense..mostly new people. So far this year, they've beaten Northern Colorado(who lost and was outgained the week prior by some team called Lindenwood), and New Mexico (by the skin of their teeth). Colorado badly outgained Cal last week but dropped the game in OT, this after a tough trip to the island in which they lost to Hawaii. Colorado badly needs a win here, and looking at the matchup of these two teams, I have a hard time seeing how CSU keeps pace. I think there's line value here based on the records of the teams. I would have made this one around 13 or so...I think there's value in only having to lay a TD.

5. @North Carolina -10 v Virginia: Back to the well with this UNC team. Last week, there is no doubt that the play on the field didn't match the result on the scoreboard, as Carolina predictably threw Rutgers around like a rag doll last week. They are balanced on both sides, which is more than I can say for Virginia, who crawled into a hole last week against Indiana of all people, almost blowing a 20 point second half lead. Virginia is very run oriented, and I don't see much of a chance that they can run on Carolina here, especially in their second straight road game. Their QB Rocco is mistake prone, so I doubt you'll see the turnover discrepancy in this one that you saw last week. Last year the Heels ran away and hid early in the contest in Charlottsville, and I can see a similar result this year. Could be a laugher.

6. Michigan St +5 @ Notre Dame: Since I'm Catholic and grew up rooting for Lou Holtz and company back in the 80's, I want to be a Notre Dame fan. It looked like it might get easier when they hired Brian Kelly. He seems like a perfect fit...Brian Kelly, face gets beat red when he gets mad, has a conceited streak..it's perfect. However, although I think Kelly will eventually be the answer, his players are a bunch of bumbling idiots who search high and low for ways to lose games. I understand why this line is where it is, ND is moving the ball at will, 500+ yards of offense, blah blah blah, but they are a bunch of fuckups. Does anyone really think that they can put it together and win convincingly against a good team like MSU, one that is 7-0 ATS in it's last 7 trips to South Bend. I hope they do, but with that boneheaded secondary and their penchant for screwing up everything they tough, it seems like it would be a true miracle for that to happen. I'll be stunned if this bunch puts it together enough to win, let alone cover more than a FG.

7. @UCLA +4 v Texas: Texas is coming in looking for revenge, but they'll be doing it with an offense that still has difficulty moving the ball, and with a pair of QBs who haven't played on the road before. I was disappointed by UCLA last week as a home favorite, but I still like their offense enough to think that they can out together enough offense to outscore Texas here. Both of their RBs are strong, and this outfit ran all over this Texas defense in Austin last year. they showed they have a pass offense against Houston, and there's a good chance Neuheisel kept most of his offense under wraps in the SJSU game last week. Huge public money on Texas..I'm going the other way.

8. Miami(OH) +5 @Minnesota: In retrospect, we should have faded Minnesota last week, as they were a 20 point favorite against New Mexico St. When you saw Minny with a -20 next to heir name against anybody, it should have been enough to get anyone to pull the trigger, but I couldn't make myself bet NMSU there. My mistake, as the Goofers lost outright. Now they get Miami(OH), a legitimately decent team who played Missouri to a virtual standstill two weeks ago. As Jerry Kill gets more comfortable with this team, I will probably be less inclined to go against them, but not here, when their favored. Miami is competent on both sides of the ball and well coached...certainly twice the team New Mexico State is.The wrong team is probably favored, at least at this point.

9. Navy +17(buy it) @South Carolina: There's no way I can avoid betting this game. Navy is a covering machine in games like this, especially against BCS teams. 18-6 as a road dog under Coach ken or something in that neighborhood(see the preseason musings). South Carolina has also been a fortunate bunch, getting all kinds of defensive scores that they likely will not be served up by the Middies. If USC dominates this game and wins 31-14, we still push. I haven't seen much of Kriss Proctor, the new Navy QB, but they are #1 in the country in rushing as usual. There's only one side to consider here. If South Carolina can put it on navy here, despite what they've shown so far and despite Navy's history in this spot, they can have my money.

10. Arizona St +2 @Illinois: I can see why the Illini are favored, but this would be just too cool if they took care of the SunDevils here. It's just something that the Zooker has not yet been able to accomplish...I nice non-conference win over a ranked opponent. Also, on both sides, ASU presents a tough matchup for the Illini. Tough front 7, which will make it tough to run, and a very good passing attack, which the Illini have not shown they can stop in the few instances they've faced one. The Illini are going to have to prove this one to me.

11. Kent +17 1/2 @ Kansas St: Big spread here for a team that is 2-14 in it's last 16 non-con games under Snyder. This line is where it is because Kent has laid an egg offensively the past two games, but I don't think KSt will have much success against them either. they can stop the run pretty well, as they did to some extent against Trent Richardson in week one, and that's the name of the game for K St. Not sure why K St deserves to be favored by this much based on results either, as they managed only 10 points on eastern Kentucky in their lone contest this year.

12. Buffalo +5 @Ball State: Here's another one where it looks like the wrong team is favored. Bufflao has looked pretty good in their two games, hanging in well with Pittsburgh in the first week, and taking care of a Stony Brook team that dominated UTEP the week before. Buffalo has some talent on offense, as ex Cincy OC Jeff Quinn is their coach and brought former Cincy backup QB Chaz Anderson with him. He's looked good in Brian Kelly's spread so far. ball St had a rough go with USF last week, and they have proven in the past to be a terrible favorite. I like Pete Lembo, but to me, the wrong team might be favored here as well.

13. Miami(FL) -2.5 v Ohio St: I just don't think that this OSU team is good enough to go on the road and beat Miami here. maybe past vintages would have no problem, but I am extremely skeptical that Luke Fecal and Joe Bauserman can leave the comfy confines of the horseshoe and get anything done. Miami is getting some of their players back from suspension. Miami's Achilles heel has been turnovers, especially when Jacory Harris is back there, but I don't think OSU can line up and beat them without getting turnovers. I also think Miami can surprise people and run it on the Buckeyes here.

14. @Florida St +3 v Oklahoma: It might go to 3.5, which makes it even more bettable. Okalhoma has been less than stellar in cases like this, where they go on the road in a tough, non-Oklahoma St environment. last year's games with Missouri and Texas A&M come to mind, and Florida St will be looking for blood after getting the shit kicked out of them last year. Defensively, they are ready to take on Landry Jones and Co, as they have all inds of playmakers back and have been perfect against the patsies they've played already. Offensively, they aren't as good, but OU has not been all that intimidating on that side of the ball. I just think the atmosphere and emotion of the night will carry the more motivated team here.

15. Oklahoma St -13.5 @Tulsa: Tulsa can move the ball on offense, but they have no shot to stop Okie State here. The Cowboys also have an outstanding record over the last few years as a road favorite, and they match up good against Tulsa I'm a little skeptical that Tulsa's offense is as good as previous years with the coaching change and dismissal of best player Demaris Johnson. I'm more than a little skeptical that they'll be able to get up off the floor after OSU's offense repeatedly runs them over.

16. @Arizona +9.5 v Stanford: Stanford did not dominate Duke as much as the score would indicate last week, and I think they are stepping into a tough environment here with Arizona. The Cats should have Juron Criner back this week, and there's no doubt that Nick Foles and that offense can throw it around. Az is coming off an embarrassing game at Oklahoma St last week, while Stanford is in the second of back to back games. If they come into Tucson and take care of business here, so be it, but it is asking a lot to win by DD in this one. It's a good spot for Arizona, and their offense is capable of putting up big numbers on the Cardinal. I still think the number one asset that Stanford had over the past couple of years is Harbaugh's presence, and I think they'll miss it this week.

Others: I like UCF(-6) to take care of an FIU team that only had 2 decent plays in their upset of Louisville last week. Defensively, they are very strong. The line moved 2 points in a day though, which scared me off making it a numbered musing.....Also lean to UCONN(-4) tonight in a horrible spot for Iowa St, coming off the huge win over Iowa, I would be surprised if they can go on the road after that game and avoid mistakes against a good defense like UCONN....Auburn(+3) is such a bunch of lucky fucks, I'll bet they squeak out a win against that imbecile Dabo Swinney.....I was ready to pull the trigger on Army(+6), but they moved from 9.5 to 6 in a flash. Northwestern is generally not a good favorite in spots like this, and Army can match up with them do to their lack of physicality.....I have a hunch that Syracuse(+17) hangs around with USC out west. They can throw the ball a bit and generally play decent defense, they can't run to save their lives though.....That's it, hope everyone has a great week!!