Week 2 Musings

Well, since I'm quite used to having sub .500 weeks over th past couple years, I have to admit it was nice to get off to a decent start in week 1. 6-5 for the numbereds. Some good calls, a couple of terrible ones. Going against LSU when they were dogged on a neutral site was a fatal mistake. Naturally, they luckboxed their way to a couple TDs off when Oregon's return teams shat the bed, but i should have known that Less would be the recipient of good fortune. I mean, it's only the 90th game in a row that it's worked out for him that way. Not rocket science. Nevertheless, a positive week, and even moreso if you decided to listen to the also rans, which went a perfect 5-0. Not that this will continue, mind you.

No play on the Thursday nighter, obviously. The prospect of a drooling Mike Stoops trying to figure out how to stop the Cowboy attack had me off of Arizona, and I hate laying more than 2 scores against a competent offense. So no play.

Do I even need to talk about the uniform debacles of this week. Georgia stole their uniforms from UNLV, then went out and played like them. I don't know how many times I have to repeat this, but UGA's uni's are among the best in the country, especially their homes. The great red jerseys with the gray britches..simple stripe pattern down the side instead of the forced Nike swoosh. Perfect. Maryland's abominations shouldn't even be given confirmation that they exist. I felt bad for the original Jeff LaVette, having to witness those things a mere night before going in for major tune up. It's a truibute to him that he was able to turn in such a workmanlike but rapid recovery despite having been subjected to the visual germs of the gay taxi driver uniforms. http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/college/2011/09/06/2011-09-06_marylands_special_football_uniforms_slammed_by_pundits_fans_after_debut_on_monda.html.

By the way...I'm catching a bit of this NFL game as I write this, and I have to ask...Did the lockout settlement include some sort of new rule that forbids defenses to cover anyone?


On to this week. This is one of those weeks where I've got an opinion on almost every game. Lots of plays. It's risky. As the great and newly minted Hall Of Famer Richard Dent once said, "Somethin' might good happen, somethin' might bad happen."

Friday:

1. @Arizona St -7 v Missouri: First of all, it's always tough to go out west and play well. But this is especially true when you have a QB making his first start on the road, against an attacking defense. Even worse is when that QB can't complete a pass more than 5 yards downfield. James Franklin went 17-26 for 129 yards. 7.58 yards per completion...get that kid in an NFL camp immediately!! This was at home against Miami(OH), now he has to test his mettle on the road. The Tigers also saw their starting RB go down with a serious injury(broken fibula I think.) ASU is healthy and ready to make a statement after a couple years of missing bowls. I like their skill people. *****Late note....this line has just jumped from 7 to 9 overnight and is now 9.5!!(wrote this part last night, now back this AM). Tread lightly. Lucky for me, I got it in at 7 earlier this week. Maybe it will drop again by game time. *******

2. San Diego St - 9 1/2 @Army: I really don't have anything against the Black Knights, but here they are again in a bad matchup. Last week it was NIU, who completely destroyed them with their running game. Now SDSU comes in to Michie stadium, itself with a punishing running game and a well balanced offense. RB Ronnie Hillman ran for 1500+ yards last year at 6 yards a pop, and their entire line is back. Army's defensive line is a mess with injuries(two starters lost last week) and they had questionable talent to start with. On the flip side, SDSU is very experienced against the wishbone, since they play Air Force every year and just got done shutting down two option attacks in their last two games(Navy in the bowl and Cal Poly last week). Rocky Long can handle this Army offense, especially since Trent Steelman has proven beyond any reasonable doubt that he absolutely cannot throw the ball. Army was down last week to NIU 49-6 after 3 quarters and it wasn't even that close. the only hesitation here is that SDSU is coming across the country and playing a 9AM game on their body clocks. Other than that, all the signs point to Army being completely unable to stop the Aztecs.

3. Central Michigan +10 1/2 @ Kentucky: It's hard to believe, but Kentucky failed to crack the 200 yard mark in their opener last week in Nashville against Western Kentucky. I knew that they would be missing some pieces on offense, but that was a pathetic effort. It's becoming more evident that they were extremely reliant on new NFL star Randall Cobb last year for just about everything on offense. There is practically nothing left as far as explosiveness on offense. CMU didn't blow the doors off of South Carolina St in their opener either, but they have plenty coming back on offense from a pretty reliable offense last year that almost beat Navy and Northwestern on the road. CMU also held SCSU to 135 yards total offense. Again...it's hard to cover a significant number when you can't move the ball.

4. Toledo +19 @Ohio St: I'm really surprised that this line hasn't climbed, as 77% of the public is on the Buckeyes, and I would imagine the line looks pretty tasty to your average chalk player. This is a situation that I've been looking to exploit since the middle of the summer, so now that it's here, I have to jump on it, even though I would have expected a little bit better value. One happy occurrence of week 1 was that Ohio State completely blew the doors off Akron, which I expected because Akron is one of the 5 worst teams in the FBS. This week, OSU gets Toledo...a real team with a real offense. Defensively, I think Toldeo is a bit weak, but I don't think anyone is trembling at the thought of facing an unleashed Joe Bauserman. Toldeo has enough talent on offense to seriously challenge OSU and their questionable playmaking talent. It wouldn't surprise me to turn on that game late in the third and see Toledo up in the contest.

5. @North Carolina -10 v Rutgers: UNC has of course had a rough last few weeks, as it took the administration about 18 months to determine what they should have known about Butch Davis after about 6 months. However, they have themselves a nice match-up this week against Rutgers. It appears that Carolina has several strengths. Most notably, their front 7 is very good, at least among their starters. I don't think Rutgers will have much shot at moving the ball in this one, especially not on the ground. For crying out loud, they couldn't run it against NC-Central, which is a glorified community college in the Raleigh Durham hood as I understand it(Haas could confirm perhaps). I'm actually surprised that NC-Central didn't trot out there in blue jeans and mismatched ill-fitting shirts. In that game, Rutgers rushed for less than 3.5 ypc. Agaisnt North Carolina Central!!! Last year, they only cracked 4 ypc in a game once against an FBS opponent(Tulane). They even rushed for negative yards twice, against the defensive juggernauts of Army and Cincinnati. They will not be able to move the ball on UNC's defense. Offensively, UNC throttled a normally solid FCS team in James Madison, who beat VT just one year ago. QB Brynn Renner completed 22-23 passes in the game. He's got some good receivers and most of his line back. Unless Rutgers D has a game of a lifetime, they are looking at a significant loss here.

6. Tulsa -12 @Tulane: The line is skewed because of a poor performance by Tulsa against OU. However, with the amount of talent returning for Tulsa, they are going to be an effective squad this year, especially offensively. All 5 lineman and the top 3 running backs return. Tulane looks to be in big trouble in this game, as their three top safeties all got hurt in their opener, a game in which they were outgained against SE Louisiana. That's bad news for them, especially as they match up against Tulsa's spread, an offense that has not exactly been "Tulane friendly" over the past few years. In the last 5 years, Tulsa has beaten Tulane by the following scores: 38-3, 49-25, 56-7, 37-13 and 55-24. I think the talent level of this year's edition of these teams is about as it always is, and I see no reason that Tulsa doesn't come out and take care of business as usual against the Green Wave.

7. Stanford -20 @Duke: I almost feel ashamed playing this one because it's such an obnoxious public play, and I think Stanford in the long run will prove to be overrated, but they should roll here. Duke, in situations like this(at home vs top 10 level teams) has been completely non-competitive, especially on defense. They might be able to toss the ball around a little bit with QB Renfree and some nice receivers returning in Cutcliffe's solid scheme, but chances are they'll get slapped around like they did last year when Alabama came in to Durham and scored TDs on the first 7 possessions. I see a 55-14 type game here.

8. @East Carolina +18 v Virginia Tech: Last week, VT kicked off their season against Appy St and the results couldn't have been any better. They came out like gangbusters against a team that most would assume might compete for the FCS championship. The game was over by halftime, and everything that could have gone well for the Hokies went fantastically. New Qb Logan Thomas looked sharp, they ran it, they played great defense. You name it, they did it impressively. So impressively, in fact, that the college president stumbled into the locker room at halftime and gave Frank Beamer a contract extension. True story. Now they go on the road to face ECU, who had some bad fortune in the game with South Carolina. One thing we can be sure of about ECU over the past year or so is that they will score. We've also learned that they will give up points, but a closer look at the South Carolina boxscore shows that they competed pretty well in that game on a neutral site. Now they go home for their chance to take on a big opponent, who is coming off a game in which they couldn't have looked any better. VT is going to have a great year this year, but that doesn't mean they won't have any hiccups. I see ECU being competitive in this one, especially in the new QBs first road start. This line however, is dropping..I would want at least 17 for the record.

9. @Colorado +6 v California: Since '07, Cal is 3-11 as a road favorite, and Colorado is 8-3 as a home dog. I thought Cal would resemble "road Cal" more than they would resemble "Home Cal" last week, and I apologize for that. This week they go on the road at altitude with a new QB. Last week Colorado looked weak on offense, but held Bryant Moniz and Hawaii under 200 yards passing, which to me is pretty impressive. It's a revenge game for the Buffs who got blown out in Berkeley last year despite only giving up 356 yards of offense.(5 TOs). I think they'll do a better job of hanging on to the ball this year, and if they do, they have a great shot at pulling out the outright upset, similar to last year when they knocked off Georgia at this time of year.

10. South Carolina -3 @Georgia: You might be able to find this at 2.5, but the majority of the sites have it at 3, so I'll leave it there. mark Richt is under tons of pressure in this one, coming off such an unimpressive performance against Boise last week and on the heels of a disastrous season last year. It's almost as if Georgia can't get out of it's own way these days, with Richt playing the role of Charlie Brown. ("Everything I touch gets ruined!!!")Generally, you would think that Georgia would have the talent edge in this contest, but in my opinion, it's not even close. Georgia's offensive line is likely to be dominated by SC's front 4..I think Aaron Murray is going to be running for his life. They still don't have any playmakers on offense, and that is in direct contrast to SC, who has plenty on both sides of the ball. You hate to lay wood on the road in the SEC, but this is a sinking ship in Athens. If they win this game, it will be due to plays being made by someone who has never made a difference in a game before. I think that scenario is unlikely.

11. Temple -15 @Akron: Akron is just an atrocious football team. I think everyone will see that when we look back and they were the only team on Ohio State's schedule other than Indiana that got pasted by the Buckeyes. They can't stop a soul on defense, their coach is completely overmatched and they bring new meaning to the word "inept" on offense. Last year Temple shut them out, holding them to 154 total yards. For the most part, other than Al Golden, Temple's team is back intact, most importantly their QB Mike Gerardi and their pair of RB's Bernard Pierce and Matt Brown. In past years, Temple has had dogfights in their opener with Philly rival Villanova, having gone to OT with them 3 out the last 4 years. Not this year, as they blew out Nova 42-7 with almost 500 yards of offense. Under new coach Steve Addazio, I think they'll have a more competent offense than they did under Golden, and their defense won't have any problem stopping the borderline homosexual offense of Akron.

12. Virginia -6 1/2 @Indiana: I almost took a chance on Ball State last week in their neutral site tilt with IU, but when the line dropped to under 6, I was no longer a player, having seen Ball St play many times since Brady Hoke left. Unfortunately for me, and IU, they absolutely dominated the line of scrimmage and beat the Hoosiers outright. Indiana simply could not stop them from running. They actually looked pretty good on offense, executing what they wanted to, but still lost. Not a good sign. Now Virginia comes in, and they actually have a pretty highly touted offensive line, and a much better defense than BSU. They ran all over William and Mary, another capable Colonial team last week. I think there's a chance that IU gets their doors blown off in this one, and even if they play well, they could still lose by a couple scores.

13. Northern Illinois -4 1/2 @Kansas: People need to start paying attention to this NIU team. Offensively, they are a handful, as they run all over people, and QB Chandler Harnish has been among the most efficient QBs in the country over the past year. Army is not anywhere near as good as they were last year, but they are a well coached team that normally hangs with most. NIU completely overwhlemed them last week, as I've mentioned earlier. Now they go to Kansas, who was ranked 107th against the run last year. Even though people didn't need to throw on them as a result, they stunk against the pass too. Are they better this year? Probably, but it's mostly the same suspects on both sides of the ball. In their opener, they beat McNeese St by 18, but gave up over 400 yards of offense and 9/16 on 3rd downs. I don't think KU will have much success stopping this NIU offense. If Army came into Lawrence, KU would be about a 7 point favorite. NIU is the better team here..I think by a lot.

14. Ball State +21(buy it up if necessary) @USF: Everybody saw what USF did at Notre Dame last week. They won, now they're ranked, Skip Holtz made the rounds on all the sports talk shows, it was a glorious day for the Bulls. But I'm sure that those of you reading this, astute college football savants that you are, all noticed that the victory was done with smoke and mirrors as much as anything else. It's a perfect time to go against the Bulls here. In the ND game, the Irish turned it over 3 times inside the 5, one of which was taken back to the house for a score. ND piled up 500+ yards of offense, USF had half of that. I told you before the game that I was very sleptical of USF's offense, and I remain that way. 3.5 yards per play. If you're playing Alabama, you're Kent State that's understandable. ND is getting better, but they are not a dominant outfit. They couldn't run it, and BJ Daniels had only 128 yards passing and needed 18 completions to get that much. Ball State is coming off a game in which they physically dominated Indiana on a nuetral site. No great shakes, but I think there's some significance to it. I like their new coach quite a bit, and I like their chances to compete in this one, since they appear to have the chops to hold USF's pedestrian offense to 350 yards or less. It's hard to cover a big number if you struggle to move the ball. Chances are they won't have a horseshoe up their anuses for a second week in a row.

15 @UCLA -21 v San Jose St: UCLA actually impressed me last week, while at the same time being stand up enough guys to not cover and help the musings stagger to a slightly over .500 start. I watched a good portion of that game, and I'm still waiting for Houston to actually stop UCLA's offense. Jonathan Franklin, UCLA's go to back had 126 yards on 16 carries, almost 8 yards a pop. The Bruins passed for 322 yard on only 29 attempts, a whopping 11 yards per attempt. Most of this was done with backup QB Richard Brehaut, after starter Kevin Prince got hurt. I'm still not sure how they lost that game. Keenum was good, but he didn't shred them, and UCLA outgained them by 100 yards on the same number of total plays. Whatever, I'll take it, along with the line value they get this week. SJSU is coming off a 57-6 shellacking at Stanford. It wasn't as bad as the score indicated, but they have a habit of turning in results like that. I do know that if UCLA is motivated, the Spartans have very little chance of stopping them. With any kind of decent performance, UCLA should have that spread covered by halftime.

Others: (Yes..there are others):........Wake is a 2 point home dog vs NC State. They looked pretty good in their opener and should have beaten Syracuse, but fell apart after Qb Tanner Price got hurt. He's back this week. NC State has a new QB that I don't trust and we all know the rule on NC State. Play the dog when they are on the road.....I'll be on Wisconsin -20.5 at home against the Beavs of Oregon State. OSU lost to Sac St in their opener, and couldn't throw the ball to save their lives. The relied on a freshman RB to carry it 34 times in order to move the ball. That won't work against the Badgers, and they'll need at least 17 points on the board if they want to cover this number....I think Mississippi St (-5.5) is the better team by a lot against Auburn, but I have a hard time recommending laying a significant number with them in this spot. MSU is favored by almost a TD on the road against the defending MNC who is currently on a 15 game winning streak? And they live with horseshoes shoved up their rectums? Miss St should score at will on them, and I'll be betting on them, but the intangibles keep this from being a musing.....I don't see any way that Penn State is going to score on Alabama. At the same time, Bama's young Qbs threw 4 picks last week at home against Kent St, so they might give the Nits a short field here and there. It'll be worth watching, but I see a repeat of last year's game here. Maybe a bit closer, 24-10....Houston shouldn't have much of a problem covering (-22) on the road at North Texas, as they should be able to score at will. The only risk there is that the back door will be wide open on Houston's defense....Looking at this ND/Michigan game, I would never in my right mind lay more than a FG (-3.5)with a team as intangibly inept as ND is, especially against a team that appears to have a LOT of fluky plays in it's future like Michigan, but it sets up good for them this week. Hugely misleading final scores for both teams last week. Michigan didn't show any signs of being able to stop a good passing attack, so ND should move the ball on them. Unfortunately for ND, moving the ball isn't the object, scoring points is. But ND is the better team.

That's it for this week. Good Luck to all.