Championship Musings

We finally had a great week last week, and Thanksgiving week is starting to turn into one of my better weeks for some reason. We're also starting to see some consistency, as over the past 4 weeks, counting the 11-2-1(taking a push on IU because the line moved to 8 and was actually 8.5 by early Sat morning) this past week, the musings are 34-18 over the past 4 weeks. (65%). Not bad. It's funny what a couple of weeks without an avalanche of turnovers will do for you. The year total moves to 92-79-4. (53.8%). Actually a money making venture for the year. Who knew?? Big money for all of us last week I think because I'm sure the rest of you were like me and threw several units on Minny +10 as well as the money line. As well as the Illinois team total under. As well as the MN 2nd half. See ya Zooker. Don't let the door hit you on your perpetually confused marble mouthed ass on the way out.

Sorry these are so late....believe it or not, I had work to attend to today and throughout the week. So I'll get right to it.

1. Southern Miss +13.5 @Houston: Southern Miss is a good team, and certainly not a team that should be handed a 2 TD spread to most teams. I realize that Houston is not "most teams", but they also have had their trials and tribulations in winner take all type games. They've never won Conference USA despite all their firepower. Frankly, although I think Kevin Sumlin is a pretty good coach, I don't get the mad dash to pay him like Nick Saban, Jr by all these have nots with coaching vacancies. If A&M launched Mike Sherman just because they thought they might miss out on Sumlin, as it appears they did, that will prove to be an egregious error in my opinion. USM is a solid defensive squad. They don't really get pushed around in any phase of defense, and they can move it on offense as well. Houston, although pretty underrated defensively at home, is certainly no defensive juggernaut, especially against the run. I think USM should be able to run it on them, and if they can bottle up some things on defense, they've got a shot to win this outright, as it's in Houston's DNA to lose a game like this. if it makes sense, I'd buy it to 14.

2. Syracuse +10 @Pitt: Both of these teams are 5-6, both aren't very good, and both are playing for bowl eligibility. Really, this is a bit of a tossup game...Pitt is probably very slightly better and they are playing at home, but that hasn't helped them much in the past, and the atmosphere isn't likely to be "electric" for this game in a big, half filled pro stadium. Both teams are pretty adequate defensively, especially against the run, so in order to cover a spread like this, Pitt QB Tino Sunseri will have to throw the ball effectively. I don't know if any of you watched his Curly Howard impersonation in the second half against WV n the Backyard Brawl, but I think he was sacked or tackled for no gain about 15 times in the 4th quarter alone. Syracuse's Ryan Nassib is sporting a 21/7 ratio this year, he can throw it a bit, and 'Cuse is usually a pretty good road dog. This game shouldn't have a double digit spread. If Syracuse fails to cover, it'll be because they didn't bother showing up, or Pitt got a bunch of lucky turnovers.

3. @TCU -38.5 v UNLV: Naturally, TCU has covered 4 in a row as a big favorite against these scumbags, and this is an autoplay, since UNLV is a road dog. I'm too lazy to look it up, but I believe that they are now 6-28 in this role in recent memory. TCU is pretty good at covering numbers in sutations like this, but even if they weren't, it's worth a play until they cover in this role. UNLV will have almost no chance to stop TCU in either the run game or the pass game. I'm hoping that TCU gets an interesting draw in their bowl, because predictably, they are playing their best ball of the year.

4. Texas +3 @baylor: The world is all over Baylor, and I guess I understand that since Texas has looked so putrid offensively for most of the year, and because Baylor is good on offense. Bettors love to back those good offenses, no doubt about that. The problem for Baylor though, is that they can't play defense, and the Horns might have gained a little mojo in their win at A&M last weekend. By my estimation, Texas has a significant edge in the running game on both sides of the ball, including a hellacious advantage on Baylor's run defense. Despite overwhelming support for baylor, this line has stayed right at the 2.5/3 range all week, so it looks to me that Vegas is content to take in money on the Bears. Baylor is ranked 114th against the run, 88th against the pass. Texas is 6th against the pass, 12th against the run. It's the toughest defense Baylor will have played, and RGIII might be banged up. Can Baylor really go 9-3? I don't think so either, even though it's the betting public's favorite side of the week, other than Houston.

5. LSU -13 v Georgia: Holy shit is this a gift.Although I've ridden them against some of the garbage teams they've played lately, Georgia's best win is coming within 3 of South Carolina. Seriously. They have played NOBODY this year after their opening two games. Their success over the past 10 games has nothing to do with with any sort of "turnaround" and everything to do with their laughably easy schedule. Their road games in that stretch were Vandy(who easily could have beat them), Ole Miss and Tennessee, who they snuck past. They also beat a hideous Florida team in the final minute on a nuetral site, and them held serve at home against rh rest of the dregs on their schedule. LSU is going to beat the living shit out of these pretenders. It'll be 14-0 by about the 9th play of the game, and it will definitely be over by halftime. LSU has probably heard that they are in the title game regardless, but they aren't dumb enough to believe it. LSU is going to walk up to the Dawgs, rip their helmets off, lop their heads off their shoulders and take a collective dump into their body cavities, Genghis Khan style.

6. Virginia Tech -6.5 v Clemson: Ok, part two on this one. Frankly, I still can't believe that Virginia Tech didn't handle Clemson the first time they played, but with a second shot, I'm going right back to my initial feeling on this matchup. VT holds the edge in every conceivable category and should have the better of the play on both sides of the ball. Due to Dabo Swinney's complete inability to coach, Clemson has lost it's edge because they were not properly motivated the past couple of weeks after they locked up an appearance in this game. They are not the same team they were earlier in the year...both mentally and physically as they are seriously banged up.VT is also much improved, and Logan Thomas is much more equiped to have success against Clemson's mediocre at best defense. VT's defense, on the other hand is sold as usual, and VT has the motivational edge in that they have a chance to avenge their only loss against a team that is now a shell of it's former self.

7. Fresno St +8 @ SanDiego St: resno has been kind of a joke this year, but this is a game in which they are faced with a situation that usually allows them to flourish. They are an underdog, and now it appears that coach Pat Hill, a true meathead's meathead, might be on the chopping block. I expect a nice performance from them here, and they match up pretty well in this game numbers wise as well. They are a clearly better offensive team than the Aztecs, and although the are worse defensively, SDSU doesn;t throw all that well, which is FSU's biggest weakness. More than a TD is too much in this one. I'll take the points and expect an "A game" performance from Fresno here.

8. Wisconsin -9.5 v Michigan St: I was on MSU the first time these two teams met, but this time, I think the matchup is less then ideal for MSU. Their calling card has been defense this year, but in the game with Wisconsin, in East Lansing, Wisconsin pretty much moved the ball at will: Russell Wilson threw for 10+ yards per attempt, and Monte Ball ran for 118 yards on only 18 carries. They lost because Wilson has 2 tipped balls picked off and MSU got a blocked punt return and they completed that hail mary pass. I really don't think MSU can beat them twice, and I know that Wisconsin doesn't believe that either. People forget that Wisconsin has good defenses too. I think they'll hold Cousins down much better than they did the first go around. I like the Badgers in a 37-17 type game.

Others: I have a hunch that Colorado St can stay within 6.5 of Wyoming in their rivalry game.....In the Bedlam game, I lean to Oklahoma St (-3.5) because I just don't think OU they can overcome the loss of Ryan Broyles. Also, OSU's major weakness is run defense, and that is one thing that Oklahoma doesn't do well.

That's it for the week. Take care everyone.