Good bounceback to get us to 4-4 for the bowl season. On to the rest...
9. Cincinnati +1.5 v Vanderbilt: You hate to go against an SEC team with a Big East team, but really....we're talking about Vandy here, so I don't think they count. Actually the 'Dores have fashioned a good year under rookie coach James Franklin and all reports indicate that they have some recruiting momentum as well for next year, but I think this is a bad matchup for them. Cincy probably should have been in the BCS game, but they lost out on a tiebreaker mostly because Zach Collaros missed a couple games at the end of the year. Both defenses will likely have the edge in this game, but I think it's much more likely that Cincy moves the ball on Vandy than vice versa. Vandy starts Aaron Rodgers little brother at QB, and he gives them some modicum of a passing attack, but they are still heavily reliant on the run game. Unfortunately for them, Cincinnati ranks 3rd in the country against the run. The Bearcats also lead the nation in sacks per game, and Vandy ranks 77th in sacks against. They are going to have a rough time moving it on Cincy. With Collaros back in there, I think Cincy has a fighting chance to get some things done on offense, and Cincy's special teams are significantly better than Vandy's. I would have made Cincy a 3-4 point favorite, so I'll take the points here.
10. Virginia +3 v Auburn: This is a good spot for Virginia, getting to play in a big bowl against the defending national champ after a long hiatus from any bowl game whatsoever. I also have the Cavs with an edge in just about all phases save special teams. UVA should be able to move the ball on that porous Auburn defense, and I'm not so sure Auburn can move it against Virginia given the absence of Michael Dyer and horrifically inconsistent play at QB. Auburn's coaching staff is also in a state of flux, looking to fill both coordinator positions. UVA is the more stable guy here..I think they win the game.
Others: Northwestern has a bad matchup against Texas A&M. I wanted to recommend NW +10 in this one based on NWs ability to throw it, and that A&M struggles to stop the pass, but NW stands to have even more difficulty against the pass than A&M will. Also, A&M is 2nd in the county in sacks. There's a good chance Persa doesn't finish the game, as he'll probably be runnng for his life. However, under no circumstances can I lay that much with this mentally weak bunch.....I would also usually lean to Illinois(-3), but I can't because I don't play on teams I have an emotional interest in. UCLA is sad....I also lean Utah +2.5 because I can see Ga Tech shitting the bed against a good defense. Also think Whittingham can conjure some stuff up given time to prepare. I'll be rooting for Paul Johnson and Tech though. That's it for now. Jan 2 stuff soon.
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Friday, December 30, 2011
Dec 30 Musings
Ok, I'm writing this right after Baylor pulled out the late cover in that 67-56 shitstorm in the Alamo Bowl to bring our record to 2-4 for the bowl season on the numbereds. Although I feel lucky, I have to say that the primary reason that I bet Baylor was that I did not see any way that Washington could stop these guys. I knew Baylor would be at a disadvantage defensively too, but I figured UW would find a way to fall behind. Baylor gained 777 yards, so I think I was right about that. It sure is nice to be on the winning side of one of these situations though. However, I refuse to say that Baylor was the wrong side. 777 yards!!!
Also, I'd like to spend a little time talking about losers. And when I say losers I mean these losers. http://www.und.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/nd-m-footbl-mtt.html. And this loser. http://www.und.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/kelly_brian00.html. Good God..there's just no other way to describe these people. So many diverse backgrounds combining to reach a common level of failure. Poor Kids. Rich Kids. Black kids. Wild Samoan Kids. It's heartwarming that they can come together in perfect harmony to take turns being failures. When it mattered most, they showed their true colors....and those colors are loser and failure. They were up 14-0 against a team with an offense that couldn't tell it's ass from a hole in the ground, then proceeded to fail in every endeavor that that point on. Couldn't cover a soul. Stopped providing QB pressure on purpose. Threw INTs that a third grader would laugh at. Couldn't stop a line plunge in the final drive. Mythical losers!!!! The Pope should drive to South bend and fire that loser Kelly. I'm prety sure that the first bit of coaching he provides to his Qbs is when he's screaming at them as they leave the field after another mind numbing interception. "What's your name...Rees? Shit dude, don't throw the ball to the other team!!!" You might want to tell him that at some point when he's practicing dickhead! http://www.athlonsports.com/overtime/notre-dames-brian-kellys-insane-sideline-screaming-gallery . The only consolation is that I bought the spread up to 4.5.
Friday games:
7. BYU +1.5 v Tulsa: The line has moved BYU -2 to Tulsa +1.5 in the past few days. I can't say that I disagree with that, because if Tulsa was getting FG, you could make a strong case that they would be the right side. But in this case, I think the value lies with BYU. These two teams are very similar statistically. Overall, the offenses and defenses are almost dead even. To me, it seems that Tulsa has the edge in the running game slightly, and that BYU has an edge in the passing game. However, these stats are skewed a bit by the fact that jake Heaps was playing QB for several of BYU's games. That won't be the case on Friday, as Riley Nelson will be under center for the Cougars, and he's averaging 9.06 yards per attempt. If you extrapolated that over the entire year, it would be good enough for 5th in the country. If there is one unit in this game that has been suboar among these teams, it's the Tulsa pass defense, which is ranked 61st in passer rating against. I think Nelson has a chance to have a big game against them. Also, remember that this is the first go-around for the Tulsa coaching staff in a bowl game, while Bronco Mendenhall and co has been around the block a few times. I think the combination of Riley Nelson and a bit of a coaching edge is enough for me to go with BYU and the small points here.
8. Rutgers pk v Iowa State: I think Rutgers has one of the most underrated defenses in the country...it's going to be tough for iowa state to score on them. Although Rutgers statisitcally looks like a weak offense, they've found a way to put up 26 points per game,and they'll have the best player on the field in WR Mohammed Sanu. Also, Iowa St has turned the ball over 32 times, good for 117th in the country, while Rutgers has forced 31...good for 6th. That's a bad combination for Iowa St. Throw in that Rutgers has a big advantage on special teams and that the game is being played in Rutgers backyard(Yankee Stadium). To me, it seems that the deck is stacked a bit against Iowa State if the object is to win the game outright.
Others: I lean to Wake, in whatever bowel they're playing Mississippi State in, but I would want at least a TD, and it looks like that line is staying at 6.5. I think Mississippi St is pretty average, and Wake has a nice passing attack, but they've been exposed against the run, and MSU can certainly run it with Vick Ballard and QB Relf. If I had a TD or more, I think Wake can score enough and get enough stops to keep it close.....I really want to play Iowa in the Insight Bowl against Oklahoma, and I probably will if the line gets back to 14, but I won't at 13.5. Oklahoma can't be motivated to play in this one, but they've heard that line so much this week that they probably are tired of hearing about it and might just come out guns blazing. The draws to Iowa are the large number of points for a team that historically comes out well prepared and plays above it's ability in bowl games, and the motivation to win it for their outgoing DC Norm Parker. Plausible reasons. But this team can't stop the pass, and that's a terrible proposition against a team like Oklahoma. I'm very concerned that they get exposed in the passing game, regardless of how profound the loss of Ryan Broyles was for OU. That's it for now.....I'll have the NYE and NYD(+1) games hopefully at a good time tomorrow. Take care.
Also, I'd like to spend a little time talking about losers. And when I say losers I mean these losers. http://www.und.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/nd-m-footbl-mtt.html. And this loser. http://www.und.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/kelly_brian00.html. Good God..there's just no other way to describe these people. So many diverse backgrounds combining to reach a common level of failure. Poor Kids. Rich Kids. Black kids. Wild Samoan Kids. It's heartwarming that they can come together in perfect harmony to take turns being failures. When it mattered most, they showed their true colors....and those colors are loser and failure. They were up 14-0 against a team with an offense that couldn't tell it's ass from a hole in the ground, then proceeded to fail in every endeavor that that point on. Couldn't cover a soul. Stopped providing QB pressure on purpose. Threw INTs that a third grader would laugh at. Couldn't stop a line plunge in the final drive. Mythical losers!!!! The Pope should drive to South bend and fire that loser Kelly. I'm prety sure that the first bit of coaching he provides to his Qbs is when he's screaming at them as they leave the field after another mind numbing interception. "What's your name...Rees? Shit dude, don't throw the ball to the other team!!!" You might want to tell him that at some point when he's practicing dickhead! http://www.athlonsports.com/overtime/notre-dames-brian-kellys-insane-sideline-screaming-gallery . The only consolation is that I bought the spread up to 4.5.
Friday games:
7. BYU +1.5 v Tulsa: The line has moved BYU -2 to Tulsa +1.5 in the past few days. I can't say that I disagree with that, because if Tulsa was getting FG, you could make a strong case that they would be the right side. But in this case, I think the value lies with BYU. These two teams are very similar statistically. Overall, the offenses and defenses are almost dead even. To me, it seems that Tulsa has the edge in the running game slightly, and that BYU has an edge in the passing game. However, these stats are skewed a bit by the fact that jake Heaps was playing QB for several of BYU's games. That won't be the case on Friday, as Riley Nelson will be under center for the Cougars, and he's averaging 9.06 yards per attempt. If you extrapolated that over the entire year, it would be good enough for 5th in the country. If there is one unit in this game that has been suboar among these teams, it's the Tulsa pass defense, which is ranked 61st in passer rating against. I think Nelson has a chance to have a big game against them. Also, remember that this is the first go-around for the Tulsa coaching staff in a bowl game, while Bronco Mendenhall and co has been around the block a few times. I think the combination of Riley Nelson and a bit of a coaching edge is enough for me to go with BYU and the small points here.
8. Rutgers pk v Iowa State: I think Rutgers has one of the most underrated defenses in the country...it's going to be tough for iowa state to score on them. Although Rutgers statisitcally looks like a weak offense, they've found a way to put up 26 points per game,and they'll have the best player on the field in WR Mohammed Sanu. Also, Iowa St has turned the ball over 32 times, good for 117th in the country, while Rutgers has forced 31...good for 6th. That's a bad combination for Iowa St. Throw in that Rutgers has a big advantage on special teams and that the game is being played in Rutgers backyard(Yankee Stadium). To me, it seems that the deck is stacked a bit against Iowa State if the object is to win the game outright.
Others: I lean to Wake, in whatever bowel they're playing Mississippi State in, but I would want at least a TD, and it looks like that line is staying at 6.5. I think Mississippi St is pretty average, and Wake has a nice passing attack, but they've been exposed against the run, and MSU can certainly run it with Vick Ballard and QB Relf. If I had a TD or more, I think Wake can score enough and get enough stops to keep it close.....I really want to play Iowa in the Insight Bowl against Oklahoma, and I probably will if the line gets back to 14, but I won't at 13.5. Oklahoma can't be motivated to play in this one, but they've heard that line so much this week that they probably are tired of hearing about it and might just come out guns blazing. The draws to Iowa are the large number of points for a team that historically comes out well prepared and plays above it's ability in bowl games, and the motivation to win it for their outgoing DC Norm Parker. Plausible reasons. But this team can't stop the pass, and that's a terrible proposition against a team like Oklahoma. I'm very concerned that they get exposed in the passing game, regardless of how profound the loss of Ryan Broyles was for OU. That's it for now.....I'll have the NYE and NYD(+1) games hopefully at a good time tomorrow. Take care.
More Musings (Bowls)
3 consecutive laughable losses bring the bowl musings to 1-4. Over the past couple of days, we've seen North Carolina's defense completely forget to show up for their game with a mediocre Missouri squad, getting blown out in the process, we've seen Western Michigan commit 7, yes 7 turnovers plus 2 onside kicks to Purdue yet still have a chance on their last drive to win the game outright, and I got beat by a homosexual quarterback. (Mike Glennon). Not just a latent, under the radar homosexual, mind you, but an effete' flaming, aggressively effeminate makeup wearing, cross dressing homo. So our start in the bowls has not been good.
Tonight are two games I'll be playing, but only one can be justified as a numbered musing.. First, now that Notre Dame is getting more than a FG (3.5 and even 4 in some places), I think there's value in them. Florida State has decent offensive numbers, but mostly only in games in which they completely overmatched their opponents. ND has played a much tougher schedule than FSU, and statistically, the two teams are pretty much even. I actually think ND's defense will have the edge over FSU's offense, and ND has a much better chance to move the ball through the air. Having said all that, I have a hard time seeing ND actually sack up and get things done in this game, especially in Florida against a Seminole team that will undoubtedly be salivating at the sight of those gold helmets. The public is all over FSU though, and to me it seems a bit unwarranted. There's value on ND........
6. Baylor -9.5 v Washington: When I originally saw this line, I figured I would be on Washington for sure. But after looking hard at this one, I really have to go with laying the points here. Baylor is coming off probably the best year the program has had in 50 years, with a 9-3 record and a Heisman Trophy winner. From all accounts that I have read, they are looking at this game as the biggest one in years for their program because they want to cap off the season correctly and maybe jump into the top ten. They are also playing in Texas, and are coming off an embarrassing bowl performance last year in which Illinois blew them out 38-14. Washington really has no such motivation, as they are merely 7-5 and have limped to the finish line after a promising 6-2 start. Their defense is atrocious, and they'll be facing the top offense statistically in the nation in a dome on a fast track. On the flip side, Baylor's defense is almost as bad,(they are 112th in ypc against the run)and Washington's balanced offense can score under Sarkisian, but a close look at box scores shows that Baylor's run defense has been gashed more by running QBs than by running backs, and teams don't run agaisnt them all that much because the games turn into shootouts. 9.5 is a lot of points, but when there figures to be somewhere around 85 points scored in the game, 9 doesn't make that much of a difference. I can easily see a 52-31 type game here. There's a big motivation advantage for Baylor, they are playing in their back yard, and I can't see any scenario where Washington's defense has any success against them. Baylor has had problems on special teams this year, but as long as they don't give up any scores in that phase, I don't think they'll have any problem.
Tonight are two games I'll be playing, but only one can be justified as a numbered musing.. First, now that Notre Dame is getting more than a FG (3.5 and even 4 in some places), I think there's value in them. Florida State has decent offensive numbers, but mostly only in games in which they completely overmatched their opponents. ND has played a much tougher schedule than FSU, and statistically, the two teams are pretty much even. I actually think ND's defense will have the edge over FSU's offense, and ND has a much better chance to move the ball through the air. Having said all that, I have a hard time seeing ND actually sack up and get things done in this game, especially in Florida against a Seminole team that will undoubtedly be salivating at the sight of those gold helmets. The public is all over FSU though, and to me it seems a bit unwarranted. There's value on ND........
6. Baylor -9.5 v Washington: When I originally saw this line, I figured I would be on Washington for sure. But after looking hard at this one, I really have to go with laying the points here. Baylor is coming off probably the best year the program has had in 50 years, with a 9-3 record and a Heisman Trophy winner. From all accounts that I have read, they are looking at this game as the biggest one in years for their program because they want to cap off the season correctly and maybe jump into the top ten. They are also playing in Texas, and are coming off an embarrassing bowl performance last year in which Illinois blew them out 38-14. Washington really has no such motivation, as they are merely 7-5 and have limped to the finish line after a promising 6-2 start. Their defense is atrocious, and they'll be facing the top offense statistically in the nation in a dome on a fast track. On the flip side, Baylor's defense is almost as bad,(they are 112th in ypc against the run)and Washington's balanced offense can score under Sarkisian, but a close look at box scores shows that Baylor's run defense has been gashed more by running QBs than by running backs, and teams don't run agaisnt them all that much because the games turn into shootouts. 9.5 is a lot of points, but when there figures to be somewhere around 85 points scored in the game, 9 doesn't make that much of a difference. I can easily see a 52-31 type game here. There's a big motivation advantage for Baylor, they are playing in their back yard, and I can't see any scenario where Washington's defense has any success against them. Baylor has had problems on special teams this year, but as long as they don't give up any scores in that phase, I don't think they'll have any problem.
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Bowl Musings part III
After the FIU debacle, La Tech came through with a cover in a game they easily could have won. I won't be greedy though, a cover is a cover. That brings us to 1-1 on the numbered musings. Tomorrow there's no official play on Boise, but as I mentioned, I lean that way. That reminds me, will we ever see a Boise bowl game again where they aren't a double digit favorite? the one thing that stinks about all these conference tie ins with the bowls is that if a team like Boise doesn't make the BCS, they don't get a shot against anydecent team because it's the BCS or bust for them. If they don't strike it rich with a BCS bowl, they fall about 25 spots down the totem pole because the Mountain West tie ins stink. It won't get much better in the Big East either, as high finishers in the Big East this year have NC State, Iowa St and Vandy as bowl game matchups. It'd be nice if the Cotton Bowl, or one of the Florida New Year's Day Bowls could invite them. Ah, whatever.
3. North Carolina +5 v Missouri: In my opinion, this game is a complete tossup. Both teams stength of schedule according to most measures was almost identical. They both went 7-5. Statistically in this one, the teams also look even, although Missouri looks to be in a bit of trouble against UNC's passing attack. Missouri is ranked 74th in passer rating defense(although the Big 12 is a good passing league) and had a 20-8 ratio against. UNC QB Brynn Renner struggles against pressure, but Mizzou didn't make many plays in pass defense with only 8 INTs, and they were in the middle of the pack in sacks. On the flip side, Mizzou is a running team, but they will be without their stud running back Henry Josey. Also, UNC was stout against the run, ranked 16th. At the end of the day, I think this is a coin flip, with perhaps even an edge to UNC, so I'll take the 5 points in this one.
4. Western Michigan +2.5 v Purdue. The more I look at this game, the more I think WMU is the better team. There is some danger here in that WMU is among the worst rush defenses in the league and Purdue can run it a little, but overall, I think WMU is going to present even worse of a matchup for the Boilers. They are probably the best passing team Purdue will have played this year, and when Purdue played a team that could throw it(ND, even Michigan and Wisconsin) they got torched. They also played like crap in pretty much every game away from West Lafayette, and WMU hung with Michigan, Illinois(when they were good) and beat UCONN on the road. WMU is much better in the special teams than Purdue, and there is a very big coaching edge with Bill Cubit lapping Danny Hope in the brainpower department. Throw in the fact that WMU is going to be jacked to play any Big Ten team, and I think this shapes up as a nice spot. Although Purdue might not be as likely to fall victim to the "not interested" situation with a bowl game in Detroit because it's been awhile since the went bowling, it's still a bowl game in Detroit against a MAC team. Combine that with the fact they have a buffoon for a coacg, and you can see why I think WMU won;t get their best shot.
5. Louisville +2 v NC State: Do I trust Mike Glennon and this gutless offense against any defense with a pulse? Certainly not. That's pretty much the gist of this play. I think Louisville will have their way with the Wolfpack offense, and Louisville own offense has been very capable in recent weeks. This game is in NC State's backyard, but they are a sad sack team who vomits on itself in any big spot. This probably can't be constututed as a big spot, but it's a Nat TV game nonetheless. Here's another case where I think the wrong team is favored.
That's it for now. Others to come in the coming days...
3. North Carolina +5 v Missouri: In my opinion, this game is a complete tossup. Both teams stength of schedule according to most measures was almost identical. They both went 7-5. Statistically in this one, the teams also look even, although Missouri looks to be in a bit of trouble against UNC's passing attack. Missouri is ranked 74th in passer rating defense(although the Big 12 is a good passing league) and had a 20-8 ratio against. UNC QB Brynn Renner struggles against pressure, but Mizzou didn't make many plays in pass defense with only 8 INTs, and they were in the middle of the pack in sacks. On the flip side, Mizzou is a running team, but they will be without their stud running back Henry Josey. Also, UNC was stout against the run, ranked 16th. At the end of the day, I think this is a coin flip, with perhaps even an edge to UNC, so I'll take the 5 points in this one.
4. Western Michigan +2.5 v Purdue. The more I look at this game, the more I think WMU is the better team. There is some danger here in that WMU is among the worst rush defenses in the league and Purdue can run it a little, but overall, I think WMU is going to present even worse of a matchup for the Boilers. They are probably the best passing team Purdue will have played this year, and when Purdue played a team that could throw it(ND, even Michigan and Wisconsin) they got torched. They also played like crap in pretty much every game away from West Lafayette, and WMU hung with Michigan, Illinois(when they were good) and beat UCONN on the road. WMU is much better in the special teams than Purdue, and there is a very big coaching edge with Bill Cubit lapping Danny Hope in the brainpower department. Throw in the fact that WMU is going to be jacked to play any Big Ten team, and I think this shapes up as a nice spot. Although Purdue might not be as likely to fall victim to the "not interested" situation with a bowl game in Detroit because it's been awhile since the went bowling, it's still a bowl game in Detroit against a MAC team. Combine that with the fact they have a buffoon for a coacg, and you can see why I think WMU won;t get their best shot.
5. Louisville +2 v NC State: Do I trust Mike Glennon and this gutless offense against any defense with a pulse? Certainly not. That's pretty much the gist of this play. I think Louisville will have their way with the Wolfpack offense, and Louisville own offense has been very capable in recent weeks. This game is in NC State's backyard, but they are a sad sack team who vomits on itself in any big spot. This probably can't be constututed as a big spot, but it's a Nat TV game nonetheless. Here's another case where I think the wrong team is favored.
That's it for now. Others to come in the coming days...
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Bowl Musings Part 1
I didn't really like any of the games on Saturday. Good thing I stayed away too, because I would have taken a painful loss on Utah St. A better sampling of games is coming up in the coming days...not tomorrow mind you, but in the coming days. Having said that, I'll start with......
1. Florida International -4 v Marshall: This epic tilt is taking place in Tampa/St Pete in that monstrosity that the Devil Rays play in. ( I know it's just the "Rays" now, but I'm stubborn.) Marshall has been one of those teams that despite a lack of talent, coaching smarts and overall manners and grooming, they manage to stay in games. However, having said that, I think the odds are against them in this one, as FIU holds edges in just about every statistical measure. Their talent appears to be better, they have much better special teams, and they appear to be a team and program on the rise. Marshall doesn't even really belong in a bowl, finishing 6-6 out of Conference USA. FIU is going to have an emotional edge playing close to home, they'll have the best player on the field (TY Hilton), and their lines, especially their defensive line will have ther way with the Thundering Herd, who gave up more than their fair share of sacks. Apart from a flukish win at Louisville earlier in the year, Marshall spent most of their season getting pummelled away from home. Also, FIU QB Wes Carroll sports a 14/4 ratio, which led to FIU being 9th in the country in avoiding turnovers. FIU is just a better team, and unless Marshall catches some serious breaks, they will succumb to the Panthers by at least a TD.
2. Louisiana Tech +10 v TCU :Louisiana Tech has been a scrappy bunch all year, and will certainly look at this game as a chance to put themselves on the map in coach Sonny Dykes's second year. They have won and covered 7 games in a row, pulling off some impressive wins away from home in that stretch. On the other hand, I don't know if TCU is going to give La Tech their best shot, as they could have justified a bigger bowl. Also, i think La Tech has the ingredients to throw the ball on TCU's porous secondary and plays good enough defense to slow down TCU's offense, though TCU will undoubtedly get their points. An outright would be a surprise, but is not out of the question here, in my opinion.
I lean to Boise(-14) in the Las Vegas Bowl over Arizona St mostly because of the complete collapse of ASU in the final 4 games of the year. It's possible they might not even show up, as their dick of a new coach doesn't really conjure up feelings of excitement. Also, they've been absolutely torched through the air in recent weeks by average offenses..I really shudder at the thought of that secondary facing Kellen Moore and company. That troubles me. Having said that, ASU has lots of offensive talent, and Boise has been somewhat disappointing this year on defense. For that reason, I can't wholeheartedly endorse laying the points........I also lean to Nevada(+7) in the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve. I'll take 7 with a team that has outgained its opponents by 150 yards per game. Southern Miss is good, but this offense is hard to prepare for and So Miss's coach Fedora has already checked out. They also are a bit disappointed to be in this bowl, despite the sweet locale. I think the chances are much better that Nevada comes more ready to play, since HC Chris Ault is generally all business. That's it for now. I'll have some additional plays later on...take care.
1. Florida International -4 v Marshall: This epic tilt is taking place in Tampa/St Pete in that monstrosity that the Devil Rays play in. ( I know it's just the "Rays" now, but I'm stubborn.) Marshall has been one of those teams that despite a lack of talent, coaching smarts and overall manners and grooming, they manage to stay in games. However, having said that, I think the odds are against them in this one, as FIU holds edges in just about every statistical measure. Their talent appears to be better, they have much better special teams, and they appear to be a team and program on the rise. Marshall doesn't even really belong in a bowl, finishing 6-6 out of Conference USA. FIU is going to have an emotional edge playing close to home, they'll have the best player on the field (TY Hilton), and their lines, especially their defensive line will have ther way with the Thundering Herd, who gave up more than their fair share of sacks. Apart from a flukish win at Louisville earlier in the year, Marshall spent most of their season getting pummelled away from home. Also, FIU QB Wes Carroll sports a 14/4 ratio, which led to FIU being 9th in the country in avoiding turnovers. FIU is just a better team, and unless Marshall catches some serious breaks, they will succumb to the Panthers by at least a TD.
2. Louisiana Tech +10 v TCU :Louisiana Tech has been a scrappy bunch all year, and will certainly look at this game as a chance to put themselves on the map in coach Sonny Dykes's second year. They have won and covered 7 games in a row, pulling off some impressive wins away from home in that stretch. On the other hand, I don't know if TCU is going to give La Tech their best shot, as they could have justified a bigger bowl. Also, i think La Tech has the ingredients to throw the ball on TCU's porous secondary and plays good enough defense to slow down TCU's offense, though TCU will undoubtedly get their points. An outright would be a surprise, but is not out of the question here, in my opinion.
I lean to Boise(-14) in the Las Vegas Bowl over Arizona St mostly because of the complete collapse of ASU in the final 4 games of the year. It's possible they might not even show up, as their dick of a new coach doesn't really conjure up feelings of excitement. Also, they've been absolutely torched through the air in recent weeks by average offenses..I really shudder at the thought of that secondary facing Kellen Moore and company. That troubles me. Having said that, ASU has lots of offensive talent, and Boise has been somewhat disappointing this year on defense. For that reason, I can't wholeheartedly endorse laying the points........I also lean to Nevada(+7) in the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve. I'll take 7 with a team that has outgained its opponents by 150 yards per game. Southern Miss is good, but this offense is hard to prepare for and So Miss's coach Fedora has already checked out. They also are a bit disappointed to be in this bowl, despite the sweet locale. I think the chances are much better that Nevada comes more ready to play, since HC Chris Ault is generally all business. That's it for now. I'll have some additional plays later on...take care.
Saturday, December 3, 2011
Championship Musings
We finally had a great week last week, and Thanksgiving week is starting to turn into one of my better weeks for some reason. We're also starting to see some consistency, as over the past 4 weeks, counting the 11-2-1(taking a push on IU because the line moved to 8 and was actually 8.5 by early Sat morning) this past week, the musings are 34-18 over the past 4 weeks. (65%). Not bad. It's funny what a couple of weeks without an avalanche of turnovers will do for you. The year total moves to 92-79-4. (53.8%). Actually a money making venture for the year. Who knew?? Big money for all of us last week I think because I'm sure the rest of you were like me and threw several units on Minny +10 as well as the money line. As well as the Illinois team total under. As well as the MN 2nd half. See ya Zooker. Don't let the door hit you on your perpetually confused marble mouthed ass on the way out.
Sorry these are so late....believe it or not, I had work to attend to today and throughout the week. So I'll get right to it.
1. Southern Miss +13.5 @Houston: Southern Miss is a good team, and certainly not a team that should be handed a 2 TD spread to most teams. I realize that Houston is not "most teams", but they also have had their trials and tribulations in winner take all type games. They've never won Conference USA despite all their firepower. Frankly, although I think Kevin Sumlin is a pretty good coach, I don't get the mad dash to pay him like Nick Saban, Jr by all these have nots with coaching vacancies. If A&M launched Mike Sherman just because they thought they might miss out on Sumlin, as it appears they did, that will prove to be an egregious error in my opinion. USM is a solid defensive squad. They don't really get pushed around in any phase of defense, and they can move it on offense as well. Houston, although pretty underrated defensively at home, is certainly no defensive juggernaut, especially against the run. I think USM should be able to run it on them, and if they can bottle up some things on defense, they've got a shot to win this outright, as it's in Houston's DNA to lose a game like this. if it makes sense, I'd buy it to 14.
2. Syracuse +10 @Pitt: Both of these teams are 5-6, both aren't very good, and both are playing for bowl eligibility. Really, this is a bit of a tossup game...Pitt is probably very slightly better and they are playing at home, but that hasn't helped them much in the past, and the atmosphere isn't likely to be "electric" for this game in a big, half filled pro stadium. Both teams are pretty adequate defensively, especially against the run, so in order to cover a spread like this, Pitt QB Tino Sunseri will have to throw the ball effectively. I don't know if any of you watched his Curly Howard impersonation in the second half against WV n the Backyard Brawl, but I think he was sacked or tackled for no gain about 15 times in the 4th quarter alone. Syracuse's Ryan Nassib is sporting a 21/7 ratio this year, he can throw it a bit, and 'Cuse is usually a pretty good road dog. This game shouldn't have a double digit spread. If Syracuse fails to cover, it'll be because they didn't bother showing up, or Pitt got a bunch of lucky turnovers.
3. @TCU -38.5 v UNLV: Naturally, TCU has covered 4 in a row as a big favorite against these scumbags, and this is an autoplay, since UNLV is a road dog. I'm too lazy to look it up, but I believe that they are now 6-28 in this role in recent memory. TCU is pretty good at covering numbers in sutations like this, but even if they weren't, it's worth a play until they cover in this role. UNLV will have almost no chance to stop TCU in either the run game or the pass game. I'm hoping that TCU gets an interesting draw in their bowl, because predictably, they are playing their best ball of the year.
4. Texas +3 @baylor: The world is all over Baylor, and I guess I understand that since Texas has looked so putrid offensively for most of the year, and because Baylor is good on offense. Bettors love to back those good offenses, no doubt about that. The problem for Baylor though, is that they can't play defense, and the Horns might have gained a little mojo in their win at A&M last weekend. By my estimation, Texas has a significant edge in the running game on both sides of the ball, including a hellacious advantage on Baylor's run defense. Despite overwhelming support for baylor, this line has stayed right at the 2.5/3 range all week, so it looks to me that Vegas is content to take in money on the Bears. Baylor is ranked 114th against the run, 88th against the pass. Texas is 6th against the pass, 12th against the run. It's the toughest defense Baylor will have played, and RGIII might be banged up. Can Baylor really go 9-3? I don't think so either, even though it's the betting public's favorite side of the week, other than Houston.
5. LSU -13 v Georgia: Holy shit is this a gift.Although I've ridden them against some of the garbage teams they've played lately, Georgia's best win is coming within 3 of South Carolina. Seriously. They have played NOBODY this year after their opening two games. Their success over the past 10 games has nothing to do with with any sort of "turnaround" and everything to do with their laughably easy schedule. Their road games in that stretch were Vandy(who easily could have beat them), Ole Miss and Tennessee, who they snuck past. They also beat a hideous Florida team in the final minute on a nuetral site, and them held serve at home against rh rest of the dregs on their schedule. LSU is going to beat the living shit out of these pretenders. It'll be 14-0 by about the 9th play of the game, and it will definitely be over by halftime. LSU has probably heard that they are in the title game regardless, but they aren't dumb enough to believe it. LSU is going to walk up to the Dawgs, rip their helmets off, lop their heads off their shoulders and take a collective dump into their body cavities, Genghis Khan style.
6. Virginia Tech -6.5 v Clemson: Ok, part two on this one. Frankly, I still can't believe that Virginia Tech didn't handle Clemson the first time they played, but with a second shot, I'm going right back to my initial feeling on this matchup. VT holds the edge in every conceivable category and should have the better of the play on both sides of the ball. Due to Dabo Swinney's complete inability to coach, Clemson has lost it's edge because they were not properly motivated the past couple of weeks after they locked up an appearance in this game. They are not the same team they were earlier in the year...both mentally and physically as they are seriously banged up.VT is also much improved, and Logan Thomas is much more equiped to have success against Clemson's mediocre at best defense. VT's defense, on the other hand is sold as usual, and VT has the motivational edge in that they have a chance to avenge their only loss against a team that is now a shell of it's former self.
7. Fresno St +8 @ SanDiego St: resno has been kind of a joke this year, but this is a game in which they are faced with a situation that usually allows them to flourish. They are an underdog, and now it appears that coach Pat Hill, a true meathead's meathead, might be on the chopping block. I expect a nice performance from them here, and they match up pretty well in this game numbers wise as well. They are a clearly better offensive team than the Aztecs, and although the are worse defensively, SDSU doesn;t throw all that well, which is FSU's biggest weakness. More than a TD is too much in this one. I'll take the points and expect an "A game" performance from Fresno here.
8. Wisconsin -9.5 v Michigan St: I was on MSU the first time these two teams met, but this time, I think the matchup is less then ideal for MSU. Their calling card has been defense this year, but in the game with Wisconsin, in East Lansing, Wisconsin pretty much moved the ball at will: Russell Wilson threw for 10+ yards per attempt, and Monte Ball ran for 118 yards on only 18 carries. They lost because Wilson has 2 tipped balls picked off and MSU got a blocked punt return and they completed that hail mary pass. I really don't think MSU can beat them twice, and I know that Wisconsin doesn't believe that either. People forget that Wisconsin has good defenses too. I think they'll hold Cousins down much better than they did the first go around. I like the Badgers in a 37-17 type game.
Others: I have a hunch that Colorado St can stay within 6.5 of Wyoming in their rivalry game.....In the Bedlam game, I lean to Oklahoma St (-3.5) because I just don't think OU they can overcome the loss of Ryan Broyles. Also, OSU's major weakness is run defense, and that is one thing that Oklahoma doesn't do well.
That's it for the week. Take care everyone.
Sorry these are so late....believe it or not, I had work to attend to today and throughout the week. So I'll get right to it.
1. Southern Miss +13.5 @Houston: Southern Miss is a good team, and certainly not a team that should be handed a 2 TD spread to most teams. I realize that Houston is not "most teams", but they also have had their trials and tribulations in winner take all type games. They've never won Conference USA despite all their firepower. Frankly, although I think Kevin Sumlin is a pretty good coach, I don't get the mad dash to pay him like Nick Saban, Jr by all these have nots with coaching vacancies. If A&M launched Mike Sherman just because they thought they might miss out on Sumlin, as it appears they did, that will prove to be an egregious error in my opinion. USM is a solid defensive squad. They don't really get pushed around in any phase of defense, and they can move it on offense as well. Houston, although pretty underrated defensively at home, is certainly no defensive juggernaut, especially against the run. I think USM should be able to run it on them, and if they can bottle up some things on defense, they've got a shot to win this outright, as it's in Houston's DNA to lose a game like this. if it makes sense, I'd buy it to 14.
2. Syracuse +10 @Pitt: Both of these teams are 5-6, both aren't very good, and both are playing for bowl eligibility. Really, this is a bit of a tossup game...Pitt is probably very slightly better and they are playing at home, but that hasn't helped them much in the past, and the atmosphere isn't likely to be "electric" for this game in a big, half filled pro stadium. Both teams are pretty adequate defensively, especially against the run, so in order to cover a spread like this, Pitt QB Tino Sunseri will have to throw the ball effectively. I don't know if any of you watched his Curly Howard impersonation in the second half against WV n the Backyard Brawl, but I think he was sacked or tackled for no gain about 15 times in the 4th quarter alone. Syracuse's Ryan Nassib is sporting a 21/7 ratio this year, he can throw it a bit, and 'Cuse is usually a pretty good road dog. This game shouldn't have a double digit spread. If Syracuse fails to cover, it'll be because they didn't bother showing up, or Pitt got a bunch of lucky turnovers.
3. @TCU -38.5 v UNLV: Naturally, TCU has covered 4 in a row as a big favorite against these scumbags, and this is an autoplay, since UNLV is a road dog. I'm too lazy to look it up, but I believe that they are now 6-28 in this role in recent memory. TCU is pretty good at covering numbers in sutations like this, but even if they weren't, it's worth a play until they cover in this role. UNLV will have almost no chance to stop TCU in either the run game or the pass game. I'm hoping that TCU gets an interesting draw in their bowl, because predictably, they are playing their best ball of the year.
4. Texas +3 @baylor: The world is all over Baylor, and I guess I understand that since Texas has looked so putrid offensively for most of the year, and because Baylor is good on offense. Bettors love to back those good offenses, no doubt about that. The problem for Baylor though, is that they can't play defense, and the Horns might have gained a little mojo in their win at A&M last weekend. By my estimation, Texas has a significant edge in the running game on both sides of the ball, including a hellacious advantage on Baylor's run defense. Despite overwhelming support for baylor, this line has stayed right at the 2.5/3 range all week, so it looks to me that Vegas is content to take in money on the Bears. Baylor is ranked 114th against the run, 88th against the pass. Texas is 6th against the pass, 12th against the run. It's the toughest defense Baylor will have played, and RGIII might be banged up. Can Baylor really go 9-3? I don't think so either, even though it's the betting public's favorite side of the week, other than Houston.
5. LSU -13 v Georgia: Holy shit is this a gift.Although I've ridden them against some of the garbage teams they've played lately, Georgia's best win is coming within 3 of South Carolina. Seriously. They have played NOBODY this year after their opening two games. Their success over the past 10 games has nothing to do with with any sort of "turnaround" and everything to do with their laughably easy schedule. Their road games in that stretch were Vandy(who easily could have beat them), Ole Miss and Tennessee, who they snuck past. They also beat a hideous Florida team in the final minute on a nuetral site, and them held serve at home against rh rest of the dregs on their schedule. LSU is going to beat the living shit out of these pretenders. It'll be 14-0 by about the 9th play of the game, and it will definitely be over by halftime. LSU has probably heard that they are in the title game regardless, but they aren't dumb enough to believe it. LSU is going to walk up to the Dawgs, rip their helmets off, lop their heads off their shoulders and take a collective dump into their body cavities, Genghis Khan style.
6. Virginia Tech -6.5 v Clemson: Ok, part two on this one. Frankly, I still can't believe that Virginia Tech didn't handle Clemson the first time they played, but with a second shot, I'm going right back to my initial feeling on this matchup. VT holds the edge in every conceivable category and should have the better of the play on both sides of the ball. Due to Dabo Swinney's complete inability to coach, Clemson has lost it's edge because they were not properly motivated the past couple of weeks after they locked up an appearance in this game. They are not the same team they were earlier in the year...both mentally and physically as they are seriously banged up.VT is also much improved, and Logan Thomas is much more equiped to have success against Clemson's mediocre at best defense. VT's defense, on the other hand is sold as usual, and VT has the motivational edge in that they have a chance to avenge their only loss against a team that is now a shell of it's former self.
7. Fresno St +8 @ SanDiego St: resno has been kind of a joke this year, but this is a game in which they are faced with a situation that usually allows them to flourish. They are an underdog, and now it appears that coach Pat Hill, a true meathead's meathead, might be on the chopping block. I expect a nice performance from them here, and they match up pretty well in this game numbers wise as well. They are a clearly better offensive team than the Aztecs, and although the are worse defensively, SDSU doesn;t throw all that well, which is FSU's biggest weakness. More than a TD is too much in this one. I'll take the points and expect an "A game" performance from Fresno here.
8. Wisconsin -9.5 v Michigan St: I was on MSU the first time these two teams met, but this time, I think the matchup is less then ideal for MSU. Their calling card has been defense this year, but in the game with Wisconsin, in East Lansing, Wisconsin pretty much moved the ball at will: Russell Wilson threw for 10+ yards per attempt, and Monte Ball ran for 118 yards on only 18 carries. They lost because Wilson has 2 tipped balls picked off and MSU got a blocked punt return and they completed that hail mary pass. I really don't think MSU can beat them twice, and I know that Wisconsin doesn't believe that either. People forget that Wisconsin has good defenses too. I think they'll hold Cousins down much better than they did the first go around. I like the Badgers in a 37-17 type game.
Others: I have a hunch that Colorado St can stay within 6.5 of Wyoming in their rivalry game.....In the Bedlam game, I lean to Oklahoma St (-3.5) because I just don't think OU they can overcome the loss of Ryan Broyles. Also, OSU's major weakness is run defense, and that is one thing that Oklahoma doesn't do well.
That's it for the week. Take care everyone.
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