Dec 31 Musings

Good bounceback to get us to 4-4 for the bowl season. On to the rest...

9. Cincinnati +1.5 v Vanderbilt: You hate to go against an SEC team with a Big East team, but really....we're talking about Vandy here, so I don't think they count. Actually the 'Dores have fashioned a good year under rookie coach James Franklin and all reports indicate that they have some recruiting momentum as well for next year, but I think this is a bad matchup for them. Cincy probably should have been in the BCS game, but they lost out on a tiebreaker mostly because Zach Collaros missed a couple games at the end of the year. Both defenses will likely have the edge in this game, but I think it's much more likely that Cincy moves the ball on Vandy than vice versa. Vandy starts Aaron Rodgers little brother at QB, and he gives them some modicum of a passing attack, but they are still heavily reliant on the run game. Unfortunately for them, Cincinnati ranks 3rd in the country against the run. The Bearcats also lead the nation in sacks per game, and Vandy ranks 77th in sacks against. They are going to have a rough time moving it on Cincy. With Collaros back in there, I think Cincy has a fighting chance to get some things done on offense, and Cincy's special teams are significantly better than Vandy's. I would have made Cincy a 3-4 point favorite, so I'll take the points here.

10. Virginia +3 v Auburn: This is a good spot for Virginia, getting to play in a big bowl against the defending national champ after a long hiatus from any bowl game whatsoever. I also have the Cavs with an edge in just about all phases save special teams. UVA should be able to move the ball on that porous Auburn defense, and I'm not so sure Auburn can move it against Virginia given the absence of Michael Dyer and horrifically inconsistent play at QB. Auburn's coaching staff is also in a state of flux, looking to fill both coordinator positions. UVA is the more stable guy here..I think they win the game.

Others: Northwestern has a bad matchup against Texas A&M. I wanted to recommend NW +10 in this one based on NWs ability to throw it, and that A&M struggles to stop the pass, but NW stands to have even more difficulty against the pass than A&M will. Also, A&M is 2nd in the county in sacks. There's a good chance Persa doesn't finish the game, as he'll probably be runnng for his life. However, under no circumstances can I lay that much with this mentally weak bunch.....I would also usually lean to Illinois(-3), but I can't because I don't play on teams I have an emotional interest in. UCLA is sad....I also lean Utah +2.5 because I can see Ga Tech shitting the bed against a good defense. Also think Whittingham can conjure some stuff up given time to prepare. I'll be rooting for Paul Johnson and Tech though. That's it for now. Jan 2 stuff soon.