Dec 30 Musings

Ok, I'm writing this right after Baylor pulled out the late cover in that 67-56 shitstorm in the Alamo Bowl to bring our record to 2-4 for the bowl season on the numbereds. Although I feel lucky, I have to say that the primary reason that I bet Baylor was that I did not see any way that Washington could stop these guys. I knew Baylor would be at a disadvantage defensively too, but I figured UW would find a way to fall behind. Baylor gained 777 yards, so I think I was right about that. It sure is nice to be on the winning side of one of these situations though. However, I refuse to say that Baylor was the wrong side. 777 yards!!!

Also, I'd like to spend a little time talking about losers. And when I say losers I mean these losers. http://www.und.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/nd-m-footbl-mtt.html. And this loser. http://www.und.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/kelly_brian00.html. Good God..there's just no other way to describe these people. So many diverse backgrounds combining to reach a common level of failure. Poor Kids. Rich Kids. Black kids. Wild Samoan Kids. It's heartwarming that they can come together in perfect harmony to take turns being failures. When it mattered most, they showed their true colors....and those colors are loser and failure. They were up 14-0 against a team with an offense that couldn't tell it's ass from a hole in the ground, then proceeded to fail in every endeavor that that point on. Couldn't cover a soul. Stopped providing QB pressure on purpose. Threw INTs that a third grader would laugh at. Couldn't stop a line plunge in the final drive. Mythical losers!!!! The Pope should drive to South bend and fire that loser Kelly. I'm prety sure that the first bit of coaching he provides to his Qbs is when he's screaming at them as they leave the field after another mind numbing interception. "What's your name...Rees? Shit dude, don't throw the ball to the other team!!!" You might want to tell him that at some point when he's practicing dickhead! http://www.athlonsports.com/overtime/notre-dames-brian-kellys-insane-sideline-screaming-gallery . The only consolation is that I bought the spread up to 4.5.

Friday games:

7. BYU +1.5 v Tulsa: The line has moved BYU -2 to Tulsa +1.5 in the past few days. I can't say that I disagree with that, because if Tulsa was getting FG, you could make a strong case that they would be the right side. But in this case, I think the value lies with BYU. These two teams are very similar statistically. Overall, the offenses and defenses are almost dead even. To me, it seems that Tulsa has the edge in the running game slightly, and that BYU has an edge in the passing game. However, these stats are skewed a bit by the fact that jake Heaps was playing QB for several of BYU's games. That won't be the case on Friday, as Riley Nelson will be under center for the Cougars, and he's averaging 9.06 yards per attempt. If you extrapolated that over the entire year, it would be good enough for 5th in the country. If there is one unit in this game that has been suboar among these teams, it's the Tulsa pass defense, which is ranked 61st in passer rating against. I think Nelson has a chance to have a big game against them. Also, remember that this is the first go-around for the Tulsa coaching staff in a bowl game, while Bronco Mendenhall and co has been around the block a few times. I think the combination of Riley Nelson and a bit of a coaching edge is enough for me to go with BYU and the small points here.

8. Rutgers pk v Iowa State: I think Rutgers has one of the most underrated defenses in the country...it's going to be tough for iowa state to score on them. Although Rutgers statisitcally looks like a weak offense, they've found a way to put up 26 points per game,and they'll have the best player on the field in WR Mohammed Sanu. Also, Iowa St has turned the ball over 32 times, good for 117th in the country, while Rutgers has forced 31...good for 6th. That's a bad combination for Iowa St. Throw in that Rutgers has a big advantage on special teams and that the game is being played in Rutgers backyard(Yankee Stadium). To me, it seems that the deck is stacked a bit against Iowa State if the object is to win the game outright.

Others: I lean to Wake, in whatever bowel they're playing Mississippi State in, but I would want at least a TD, and it looks like that line is staying at 6.5. I think Mississippi St is pretty average, and Wake has a nice passing attack, but they've been exposed against the run, and MSU can certainly run it with Vick Ballard and QB Relf. If I had a TD or more, I think Wake can score enough and get enough stops to keep it close.....I really want to play Iowa in the Insight Bowl against Oklahoma, and I probably will if the line gets back to 14, but I won't at 13.5. Oklahoma can't be motivated to play in this one, but they've heard that line so much this week that they probably are tired of hearing about it and might just come out guns blazing. The draws to Iowa are the large number of points for a team that historically comes out well prepared and plays above it's ability in bowl games, and the motivation to win it for their outgoing DC Norm Parker. Plausible reasons. But this team can't stop the pass, and that's a terrible proposition against a team like Oklahoma. I'm very concerned that they get exposed in the passing game, regardless of how profound the loss of Ryan Broyles was for OU. That's it for now.....I'll have the NYE and NYD(+1) games hopefully at a good time tomorrow. Take care.